What you’ll need: projections (preferably your own); a calculator or spreadsheet to figure out some averages (very little math is involved, I promise); knowledge and experience that comes with being a fan

It’s not a science. Let me make that clear: tiering is less about the numbers and more about the gut feelings you have about certain players. You’ll have to have a developed knowledge of the game that can only come from watching seasons of play and paying close attention (or researching) the game during the offseason.

It’s about grouping by risk/reward. This is the most basic way to look at it. Ultimately, what you’re doing is taking a bunch of projections and then re-ranking them based on how risky each pick is. Somone like Peyton Manning is a top-tier player because he’ll be a top five performer (high reward) and he’s never missed a start (low risk). Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, might be a fourth tier player because he plays in a solid offense with lots of weapons (high reward) but he’s injury-prone and we don’t know a lot about him (high risk).

There’s a generic way to look at this.

• Tier one players had a great season last year and are almost a lock to repeat. No one is going to question you when you draft one of them because everyone wants one. Keep it down to around three tier one players.
• Tier two players had a great season last year but might not repeat. Still, even if they aren’t as good as last year, you expect - worst case scenario - they will still be solid. Most positions will have between 5-10 players in this tier, based on how many you start each week.
• Tier three players didn’t have a great season last year but were solid nonetheless. In fact, they’ve always been solid and will probably be solid again this year. And you figure, hey, maybe if things go well, this will be the year they breakout season. The other type of player who fits this mold: the guy who has tremendous upside to the point that you will ignore the risk of drafting him.
• Tier four players are either those in their declining years or those who are high risk/reward (think about the Aaron Rodgers example).

Now that you’ve done this and tiered all your players, you’ll want to arrange your rankings and make them easier to interpret. The best way to do this: average what you’ve projected for all the players in the given tier and assign number to the tier. Doing this will allow you to quickly compare positions.

For example, your picks rolls around and you want to choose between a quarterback and a wide receiver. You look at your board and see there’s one second tier wide receiver left and five second tier quarterbacks. Noting this, you can see that you can draft that wide receiver here and probably get a good quarterback with your next pick.

Remember, this is just a guide. Tiering isn’t complicated, but, like I stated before, it’s more art than science, so you’ll need to get used to it. The best way? Try putting together your own tiers and then consult with a draft guide to see how they compare. Then put yourself in the shoes of the editor and think about why he or she classified a player in a different tier. Doing this is very educational and it will automatically make you more familiar with the players while giving you a valuable draft tool.

Happy tiering! 

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Entry posted on Wednesday, June 25th, 2008 at 6:24 pm. Filed under tags: Advice, Editorial, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Analysis, NFL, NFL Draft Resources, Opinions, Resource, Tips,
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