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Fantasy Playoffs Focus: 6 Running Backs with Positive/Negative Trends
Fantasy football is played over the course of an NFL season, but as any owner will tell you, it’s weeks 14-16 that really count. It’s fantasy playoffs time, which is why I’m certain you’ll be looking for an edge. That’s why you’re on this site, right?
That’s what I thought.
Now the best thing to look for when approaching fantasy postseason is trends among individual players. The Sports Data Hub free tool set makes checking these trends wicked easy, and this article takes a look at just one example of what is possible.
Take a look at these 6 players, three of which show positive (or improving) trends and three of which are experiencing negative (or downward) trends.
Positive
DeAngelo Williams - Carolina Panthers
Looking at Williams’ last five games reveals an overall positive trend. He took a bit of a bit last week, but it was still a more-than-satisfactory gameas he rushed for 120 yards. It’s also good to see that he’s carried for at least 100 yards in each of his last three starts. Something you don’t see here: Williams has rushed for 4 touchdowns in his last three starts and his yard per carry average in those weeks was 6.4, 7.4, and 8.6. In short: start him if you’re lucky enough to have him.
Thomas Jones -New York Jets
I love players who score touchdowns and Thomas Jones has been doing that plenty this season. Consider his last six starts: at least one rushing touchdown in every game (except week 7, when he rushed for 159 yards) and two or more in a couple others. And consider this: when the Jets’ running back rushes for a touchdown New York is 6-0. When he doesn’t, the team is 1-3. Translation: expect Mangenius to get Jones some goal line carries as the Jets make a run at the postseason.
Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars
Here’s another running back who has been finding his way to the endzone on a frequent basis this season. Maurice Jones-Drew has 11 touchdowns under his belt, 5 of which he scored in his last two starts. That’s a trend I love to see - especially when it’s coupled with the fact he’s failed to score just twice in his past eleven starts.
Negative
Matt Forte - Chicago Bears
See that? This was a trend search for the number of touchdowns Matt Forte has scored in his last three starts. “No data to display” is never a good sign. The good news is that he has been getting enough touches (20+ per game every week this season) to pick up a fair amount of yards each week. Still, yards alone might not be enough come postseason. Lesson learned: “No data to display” equals “don’t start.”
Marion Barber - Dallas Cowboys
See those lines going up and down, up and down like a rollercoaster? That’s a bad sign. Looking at only weeks four and on, you can see that perhaps overall the trend is up if you look with a glass half full attitude. But seeing a running back’s rushing yards climb above 100 just twice in a seven week span isn’t enough to make him a solid start. It’s also disheartening that he rushed for two touchdowns those weeks, too.
Clinton Portis - Washington Redskins
Okay, I admit, it’s pretty doggone difficult to find fault with Clinton Portis. He’s been the heart and soul of the Redskins offense and he hit a streak of five consecutive 100 yard games earlier this season. But just consider: he has not scored a touchdown in his last three starts. He’s had at least 20 receiving yards once this season. And he has failed to rush for at least 70 yards in his last two starts. Portis carried 187 times in his first eight games this season, and at least 21 times in each game. That will wear down any running back, and, as a result, he’s carried a combined 28 times his last two starts. Remember: no matter how great a player appears on the surface (and Portis does appear spectacular … and he is) it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on him and view him with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Tags: Fantasy Football, Negative, Playoffs, Positive, Trends