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Attention NFL: Indianapolis is Still Alive
Never doubt a team coached by Tony Dungy and led by Peyton Manning. That’s a lesson the rest of the NFL is quickly getting reacquainted to. Just over four weeks ago it would have been easy to discard the Colts in the same vein as San Diego. Stumbling to 3-4, on the heels of two consecutive losses, and in a division in which the leader was 7-0, this was hardly a team worth considering for the postseason. But four weeks and as many wins later, it may be worth jumping back on the Colts bandwagon.
Indianapolis isn’t winning in the fashion of a rout. On the contrary, the Colts are hanging with their opponents - among them, New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, and San Diego - until the very end before pulling ahead with little time on the clock. Against San Diego last weekend the Colts fell behind with 1:35 showing on the clock. Eight plays and ninety seconds later and the Colts regained the lead. Manning drove his offense down the field as he has so often this season to set up Adam Vinatieri for the game-winner.
Looking at the Colts now, with three relatively easy games in succession next on the schedule (Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Detroit), and it’s not hard to imagine ten or more wins. Is that enough to make the postseason in the AFC? It very well could be. The AFC West certainly won’t more than the division winner (Denver currently leads with a 6-5 record), leaving Indianapolis to basically contend with two others: New England and Baltimore, both of which have a more difficult remaining schedule.
Then again, one can’t necessarily rule out Indianapolis winning the AFC South. Understand that it’s a long shot, but Tennessee, which was proved vulnerable this weekend in a blowout defeat at the hands of the New York Jets, could potentially lose its final three games (at Houston, vs. Pittsburgh, and at Indianapolis). If that does happen and the Titans fall to 12-4 and the Colts win out (to improve to 12-4), the Colts hold the tie-breaker. Because Tennessee would slip to 8-4 in conference and the Colts would improve to 10-2, Indianapolis holds the NFL’s fourth tiebreaker: the best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Is it likely? No, of course not. Is it possible? Absolutely. The NFL always sees something crazy happen down the stretch. You can count on it happening every season. And what would be crazier than a 10-0 team with a four game division lead dropping four of its last six, including one against the team four games behind, to ultimately lose the division due to the NFL’s fourth tie-breaker?
Of course, it’s far more likely Indianapolis makes it as a Wild Card team. What does that mean? Basically, to make the Super Bowl the Colts would need three road games and a game played on neutral turf. The Colts have actually won more often on the road this season (4-2) than they have at home (3-2). More interesting is Peyton Manning’s progression this season over the course of three months. His passer rating in September was a very un-Manning-ish 73.1. But in October it improved to a more respectable 84.0. And in the month of November he began putting up numbers you’d expect: his rating hit 100.9 and he threw 9 touchdowns and 1 interception in four games.
Obviously the Colts have weaknesses. The running game is laughable, averaging less than 80 yards per game and ranking 32nd in the NFL, whilst the defense continues to struggle stopping the run. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Indianapolis has allowed only two opposing backs to break 100 yards since its week four bye and only one in the last five weeks. Again, this is a team that has dealt with injuries at key positions this season (Manning in preseason, Joseph Addai and Bob Sanders during the season, to point out the most notable) and still has a pulse. I still believe that Tony Dungy is in the same company as Bill Belichick when it comes to dealing with injuries; both coaches have an uncanny ability to accept what they can’t control, get the team to accept it, and push forward without losing too much footing.
Eight weeks into the season, I wouldn’t have faulted someone for writing off the Colts. Now, just four short weeks later, I can hardly blame that person if he or she is ready to jump back on the bandwagon. Note to the rest of the NFL: heads up; the Indianapolis Colts are not going to walk quietly into the night.
Tags: AFC, Editorial, Indianapolis Colts, Peyton Manning, Playoffs, Postseason, Tony Dungy