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The Chance a Fantasy Owner Takes with a One-Dimensional Goal Line Back
LenDale White, like all goal line backs, is in an odd position from a fantasy football perspective. He’s easy to love because his bulldozer mentality and extra bulk have led him to handling plenty of goal line carries and, more often than not, touchdowns. But because he is part of an ultra-successful running back by committee with rookie Chris Johnson, he doesn’t often get enough carries to score a substantial number of fantasy points in other categories.
One dimensional backs like White rarely earn a roster spot in fantasy football. Goal line backs are easy to get attached to because they frequent the endzone, but yards are as important and oftentimes more so. One touchdown is a quick 6 points, but not scoring is 0 points. In other words, goal line backs are typically all-or-nothing propositions.
Consider the example of teammates Chris Johnson (the “speed” back) and LenDale White (the “goal line” back). (Warning: the following arguments are laced with statistics; you are advised to read carefully.) The “speed” back handles more carries and averages more yards per touch because he handles the ball when the offense can afford diversify its play-calls. This leads to a much more impressive yard per carry average, and because the “speed” back also handles more carries, his overall rushing total is far superior. In the case of Johnson and White, the former carries more often by an approximate 4-3 ratio (183-127, through 11 games), yet the ratio between the two backs’ rushing yards is nearly 2-1, in favor of Johnson (833-469, through 11 games). Despite the fact that White’s rushing touchdown ratio is at an advantage greater than 2-1 (11-5), Johnson’s rushing yards alone make up the difference, assuming fantasy league scoring awards 1 point per 10 rushing yards and 6 points per touchdown. The two runners’ fantasy point totals in such a league would equate to 133.3 (Johnson) and 112.9 (White).
In addition to handling fewer carries during the course of a game, goal line backs are also at a disadvantage when the offense passes the ball. Ideally, on passing downs and other downs in which an offense has the option to either run or throw, it will put as much quickness and receiving ability on the field. In the case of Johnson and White, the disparity is particularly significant. Johnson has 33 receptions, 218 yards, and 1 receiving touchdown this season, while his teammate has just 4 receptions for 14 yards. If a hypothetical fantasy league awards 1 point per 10 yards receiving and 6 points per touchdown, those receiving totals equate to 27.8 additional fantasy points for Johnson and 1.4 points for White. Add the rushing and receiving totals together, and Johnson has 161.1 fantasy points and White has 114.3 fantasy points
In addition, I noted earlier (and highlighted) that goal line backs are oftentimes “all-or-nothing propositions.” By this I mean it’s great if a goal line back scores a lot of touchdowns over the course of a season, but fantasy owners live week-to-week. White has been an exception in the sense he scores most weeks (eight of eleven starts this season), but what about the games he doesn’t score? He doesn’t often rush for a significant number of yards (he’s been over 100 yards once; under 60 yards in nine games; and averages just 42.6 yards per game), nor does he play a role in the offense when Kerry Collins is throwing the ball. Consequently, not scoring a touchdown may mean the difference between 4 points and 10 points, based on his weekly average. To put it another way, if his yards live up to his season average but his touchdowns do not, his scoring is 60 percent lower than the average.
To clarify the above (with fewer numbers), consider: Chris Johnson, who splits a fair number of carries with White and doesn’t get as many goal line carries, has scored significantly more fantasy points over the course of the season and has been a safer week-to-week starter because it can be assumed he’ll get a decent number of touches (he averages 20 per week) and yards (about 95-96 per week) to lessen the effect of not scoring a touchdown in a given game.
Do not misinterpret, however. Touchdowns are an important aspect of fantasy football, and I am not trying to argue otherwise. What I am suggesting is that touchdowns are not the be all and end all of fantasy football. Consider the following analogy: it is wise to build a diverse stock portfolio to minimize risks; similarly, in fantasy football it’s wise to have players that get a score fantasy points in a variety of ways. Diversity, over the course of a season, always beats one-dimensionality.
Tags: Chris Johnson, Fantasy Football, LenDale White, RBBC, Running Backs, Tennessee Titans