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Fantasy Football Spotlight: Philip Rivers
Posted by tomvanwyheTalk about taking a big step forward in a career.
In 2009, Philip Rivers went from “meh, he’s still a young quarterback with a lot to learn” to “oh, Jesus, thank you for making him available on my draft board for me!”
Allow me expand on those sentiments above: in 2007 Rivers took a step back and played with a lot of inconsistency. He passed for fewer yards and touchdowns and more interceptions than he had in 2006. There were games he looked like a rookie and others where his full potential shined through. Put it together and he was a tough player to peg for 2008, with most owners drafting him as a mid-lower QB1.
Long story short, he proved to be the best fantasy value ever.
Okay, that’s an exaggeration, but darn if he wasn’t right up there. Rivers led the Chargers to a division win (coming from behind and beating the Broncos in week 17 to do it, no less!) and to the divisional round of the playoffs where San Diego lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions. To sweeten the deal - and this is the part you actually care about, unless you bleed bolts of lightning - Rivers was unstoppable during the regular season. He passed for 4,009 yards, 34 touchdowns, and just 11 touchdowns. All while throwing just 478 pass attempts.
Wow.
Look at it this way: if he had thrown as many passes as Tom Brady did in 2007 he would have passed for more yards than the golden boy and, though obviously not as many as the Patriots quarterback, 41 touchdowns.
Now say it with me: Wow.
Alright, that takes care of my admiration for Rivers 2008 season. Good to get that off my chest. Now comes the part that some might criticize, so bear with me: Rivers is about to take a fairly significant step back in 2009.
Calm down, calm down. Let me explain: I don’t think Rivers is going to have a bad season by any measure, but does anyone really expect him to repeat what he did last year? He had a 7.1% touchdown percentage. In case you’re wondering, yeah, that’s pretty freakin’ good. To put it in perspective, Peyton Manning had a 4.9 last season and Donovan McNabb had a 4.0.
In order for Rivers to repeat last season’s numbers, two things have to happen: one, he can again stun the fantasy world with a 7.1 percent. Odds of it happening: slim. Like, Adrian Brody in The Pianist thin. Peyton Manning himself has had a percentage above 6.2 just once, and he’s never had at least 6.0 in consecutive seasons.
The other possibility is Rivers throwing significantly more passes. Odds of it happening: pretty unlikely. Think, I dunno, another Bush winding up in the White House unlikely. Rivers has played three consecutive full seasons, and he’s been rather consistent in one area: pass attempts. In 2006 and 2007 he tossed 460 passes, and in 2007 he threw 478. Don’t expect the number to rise much, if at all, in 2009; this is still a team with LaDainian Tomlinson who, wait a minute, was actually pretty good last season. This is still going to be a very balanced offense, and that means keeping Rivers pass attempts below 500.
Consider this: let’s say Rivers throws even 500 passes next season. If he has a very good, though not spectacular, touchdown percentage of 5.0, he’ll throw 25 touchdowns. That’s still pretty good. And if he can average about 7.4 yards per attempt, which is, again, a very good number, he’ll pass for 3,700 yards Throw in 12 interceptions to match last season’s excellent mark of around 2.3 percent, and you get a pretty good season.
But it’s not best in the NFL good; it’s not even top three good. To me, Rivers is probably a higher mid-range QB1 (5th-7th among his peers), and he shouldn’t be drafted higher. In order to justify it you must project either the offense to shift gears and start throwing the ball quite a bit more or set the bar very high for him.
Call me conservative, but I don’t buy it.
Tags: Fantasy Football, Philip Rivers, projections, Quarterbacks, San Diego Chargers, Spotlight, Statistics
