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Brady, Brees, Manning, or Rivers? How about none of them.
Posted by tomvanwyheIt’s no surprise seeing the names at the top of everyone’s quarterback draft board. Tom Brady threw 50 touchdown passes two seasons ago; Drew Brees throws an insane number of passes in the league’s highest octane offense; Peyton Manning is the NFL’s most consistent quarterback and the league’s reigning MVP; and Philip Rivers stunned the league last season by throwing 34 touchdown passes despite passing the ball just 478 times (and he was snubbed from the Pro Bowl!).
But does anyone know which of those quarterbacks is the best? Tom Brady missed 15 1/2 games last season with a season-ending knee injury, and no one knows exactly how he’ll rebound; Drew Brees consistently throws a lot of passes, but last season was his first with at least 30 touchdowns; Peyton Manning won the MVP award last season, but Tony Dungy is long gone and Manning admitted earlier this offseason that the offense is out of sync; and though Rivers had a stunning 2008 season, it’s hard to project those numbers again.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator’s mock draft site, Drew Brees has been the first quarterback coming off the draft boards at the 2.06 position (sixth pick of the second round), while Brady trails him by just a bit at the 2.07 position. About one round later Peyton Manning is third at 3.05 and Rivers trails by another full round at 4.08.
Seems like some are sold on Brees and Brady being the top two fantasy quarterbacks.
Unfortunately, I don’t agree with the majority’s assessment. I’m not sold on Brees being the best … not yet, at least. He snagged that honor last season, but does anyone suspect he’ll break 5,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns in consecutive seasons? Prior to last season his best was a bit over 4,400 yards and 28 touchdowns - a great season, but not great enough to make him the unanymous number one.
So I’m digging to the bottom of things. I want to know who the best fantasy quarterback is for 2009 - and I want to know which of those guys in the top four is the most overrated. Heck, maybe they’re not even in the top four or five or seven. Maybe 2009’s top quarterback will wind up being a guy taken in the fifth round.
Who knows?
The fun of fantasy football is making projections and finding that sleeper in the crowd who blows up and sets the league on fire. There’s nothing more satisfying. That’s why I’m trying to find the guy with the unlimited upside, the guy everyone might like but not enough to draft him higher than the biggest names.
I’m not going to argue in favor of drafting any of the following guys before the top three (though I’m not sold on Rivers - read this and this to see why). It’s a mistake to take a “sleeper” early - do it and the player is no longer a sleeper.
With that in mind, read on to see the three players who could stun you by the end of the season and finish better than the field.
The Safest Bet - Kurt Warner - Arizona Cardinals
Why? Warner is currently being drafted at the 4.08 position - and this comes after a season in which he threw 30 touchdowns and broke 4,500 yards en route to the Super Bowl and Pro Bowl. And if that’s not convincing, don’t forget he threw 27 touchdowns and passed for 3,417 yards the season before, after not starting the first 5 games of the season. Did I mention he has the best wide receiver duo in the NFL in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, and this offseason the team upgraded at running back with Chris “Beanie” Wells? Oh, and the offensive line is out-freakin-standing. Don’t be shocked if he turns in another season with 4,500 yards and 30+ touchdown passes, numbers that might be enough to push him up to the number one rank in fantasy football.
The One Who’d Really Surprise - Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers
Why? Aaron Rodgers was phenomenal last season, passing for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns in his first season as a starter. The team finished 6-10, but you can’t blame the fifth ranked offense, can you? Of course not. Assuming the defense doesn’t pull a 180 this season, its first trying out the 3-4, Rodgers and Co. will need to put up a lot of points. Holding him back may be the offensive line, which is stocked with inexperience. But if the o-line pulls through there’s an excellent chance head coach Mike McCarthy let’s Rodgers “grip it and rip it” this season (to use John Daly’s philosophy) after seemingly asking him to play conservative at times last year. He has one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league at his disposal in Donald Driver, and Greg Jennings is flat out one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Rodgers could very well break 30 touchdowns this season and easily hit 4,000 yards again.
The Super Long Shot - Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals
Why? Everyone’s favorite 2009 sleeper pick is the Cincinnati Bengals. They’re poised for a rebound, and this offense will spearhead its success. With an improved running game centered around Cedric Benson, the Bengals offense has the potential to return to the prominence it saw just a few seasons ago. If Palmer remains healthy over the course of the season, he can excite the fans with a passing game it hasn’t witnessed since 2006 or, better, 2005. Thanks to the addition of Laveranues Coles and surfacing maturity of Chad Johnson, Palmer has plenty of toys to play with when Cincinnati has possession of the ball. Imagine a comeback with something between his 2005-2006 numbers: 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Doesn’t seem too unreachable when you see the moves the team made in the offseason.
Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Analysis, Arizona Cardinals, Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals, Commentary, Fantasy Football, Green Bay Packers, Kurt Warner, projections, Quarterbacks
