Our tour among divisions to help fantasy owners in the ever-important process of seeking breakout players takes us to the always tough AFC North, a division that is home to the world champion Steelers. And given the reputation of this division, it should come as no surprise that three of the teams’ possible breakout candidates are running backs.

Baltimore Ravens - Ray Rice: Last season, Rice touched the ball 140 times, with 107 carries and 33 receptions. With those touches, he crossed the goal-line exactly zero times. So excuse fantasy owners if they’re not entirely convinced the second-year running back out of Rutgers has a big campaign in store for 2009. And while it’s true Le’Ron McClain will still get his share of carries near the end zone, Rice has surpassed Willis McGahee on the depth chart in the offseason, and will get his opportunities to punch the ball in. McGahee had surgery in the offseason on both his knee and ankle, and is apparently not highly thought of by the team’s current coaching staff. Any way you look at it, the facts are these - at this point in their respective careers, Rice is healthier and more explosive than McGahee, and fantasy owners should keep that in mind on draft day.

Cincinnati Bengals - Cedric Benson: How can a five-year veteran running back who was a top-five overall pick be eligible for a breakout year? If that pick has never ran for even 750 yards in a season, that’s how. Benson was an enormous bust in Chicago (a pain which his fantasy owners also felt), but after signing with Cincinnati last season, he ran for over 700 yards in 12 games (see graph). His yards-per-carry average last season was a measly 3.5, and for his career it is 3.7, but this is about opportunity, and Benson has plenty of it. There is no other back on the roster that figures to take carries away from Benson, so even if his lousy per-carry average continues, he’ll still get the rock. And as long as he gets the ball, he’ll get his yards and (at least a few) touchdowns. Expect him to break that 1,000-yard barrier this season for the first time in his career.

Cleveland Browns - Martin Rucker: This is officially our “going out on a limb” selection. With the departure of Kellen Winslow, the Browns have an opening at tight end for a playmaker, which is where second-year pro Rucker comes in. After a career at Missouri that saw him catch 200 passes, Cleveland snagged him in the fourth round last season. Yet he battled injuries and made a minimal impact, with only two catches on the year. Now, he’ll battle veterans Robert Royal and Steve Heiden for time at the position. Solid players both, but neither is so good that they can keep a burgeoning young talent off the field. Rucker’s not an elite blocker, which will keep him off the field in some situations, but he can catch anything thrown his way, and with so few playmakers on offense, the Browns would be foolish not to utilize him.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Rashard Mendenhall: After being out on that limb, we decided it was a good idea to go ahead and turn around for safety. That leads us to running back Mendenhall, a first-round pick last season of the Steelers who injured his shoulder in Week 4 against Baltimore and did not play another down the rest of the season. Mendenhall will split time and carries with Willie Parker, and should be in often on passing downs. Parker is not particularly adept in the passing game, having caught just three passes for 13 yards all season, whereas Mendenhall caught two passes but still gained four more yards than Parker. Look for Mendenhall to cut heavily into Mewelde Moore’s playing time as well, stealing some of the 40 catches Moore accumulated last year. Parker will turn 29 during the year, and has seen his yards-per-carry average drop by at least .3 in every season of his career. Mendenhall is certainly the future in Pittsburgh, and may be the present as well.

Tags: AFC North, Baltimore Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Strategy, Martin Rucker, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall, Ravens, Ray Rice, Receiving Touchdowns, Receiving Yards, Receptions, Running Backs, Rushing Touchdowns, Rushing Yards, Steelers, Tight Ends

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Entry posted on Wednesday, July 1st, 2009 at 7:11 am. Filed under tags: AFC North, Baltimore Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Strategy, Martin Rucker, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall, Ravens, Ray Rice, Receiving Touchdowns, Receiving Yards, Receptions, Running Backs, Rushing Touchdowns, Rushing Yards, Steelers, Tight Ends,
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