Virtually all fantasy football leagues have Adrian Peterson as the unanimous number one overall pick and deservedly so.  He led the NFL in rushing last year and has posted double digit touchdowns in both his first two seasons.  But for all the praise being handed out to Peterson, most people are overlooking someone else who had a pretty good year.  Not only did this guy lead the NFL in touchdowns last year, but he did it despite the fact that he was not even his team’s goal line back.  The player I am talking about is none other than Carolina Panthers’ running back DeAngelo Williams.

Drafted out of Memphis in 2006, most experts viewed Williams as a 3rd down or a change-of-pace back.  His smallish stature and the stigma of not coming from a BCS school made Williams drop to the end of the first round.  During his first two years in the league, Williams split carries with the hardly immortal DeShaun Foster.  Carolina even drafted Jonathan Stewart in the first round in 2008 to be their every-down back and gave him a signing bonus of $5,000,000 more than what Williams received. Whether it was from the difference in contracts or from feeling slighted by his team drafting another running back, something clicked for Williams during the 2008 summer and he came into the season in better shape than ever before.  A good indicator of a running back being in shape is how he runs in the fourth quarter of a game.  But due to the fourth quarter’s stats sometimes being distorted by the winning margin, I studied every running back’s performance in the fourth quarter of the season, which would be in the month of December.  DeAngelo showed off his improved conditioning by averaging a whopping 7.0 ypc during the final month of 2008.  What may be even more impressive is that Williams actually increased his average ypc each month from September to December which made him the only back in the NFL to do so.

Another thing that Williams did better than any other running back last year was to hold onto the ball. Along with LT, Williams was the only other running back who gained at least 1000 yards without fumbling once. No lost fumbles, no fumbles period. As great as Adrian Peterson was in 2008, he fumbled nine times, four of which he lost. Not surprisingly, both of those totals led the league among running backs. As for 2009, one must wonder how much each of these teams’ offenses will change from the previous year. Carolina returns all 11 starters on offense and with QB Jake Delhomme now two years removed from Tommy John Surgery, an expected improvement in his play will mean fewer 8-man fronts for Williams to face. Meanwhile, Minnesota lost its 6-time Pro Bowl center Matt Birk and the addition of a certain quarterback from Mississippi could level out the ratio between run and pass. Last year Minnesota had the fifth lowest passing attempts at 452. I don’t think that number will sit well with Favre as he has thrown under 500 passes in a season only twice in his 17 year career as a starter.

There’s no questioning the ability of “All Day” as Peterson is probably the best back in the NFL. If he can correct his fumbling problem and if he can stay healthy then his talent alone should make him the first pick. But those are two huge “ifs” and neither has happened over his first two seasons. Here’s another big “if” to ponder, “If DeAngelo Williams plays the same way he did in November and December over the course of an entire season, then is there any doubt over who will score the most fantasy points?

Tags: Adrian Peterson, Average, Brett Favre, Carolina Panthers, DeAngelo Williams, Draft, Fantasy Football, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Birk, Minnesota Vikings, Panthers, RB, Running Backs, Touchdowns, Vikings, YPC

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Entry posted on Tuesday, July 21st, 2009 at 11:41 pm. Filed under tags: Adrian Peterson, Average, Brett Favre, Carolina Panthers, DeAngelo Williams, Draft, Fantasy Football, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Birk, Minnesota Vikings, Panthers, RB, Running Backs, Touchdowns, Vikings, YPC,
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