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Is Derrick Ward this year’s Michael Turner?
Posted by rkelly8686Just as Lamont Jordan did under Curtis Martin, Chester Taylor did under Jamal Lewis, and Michael Turner did under LT, Derrick Ward is attempting to parlay his “apprenticeship” under Brandon Jacobs into a successful starting gig. Each of those previous three new starters did not disappoint their owners as they respectively racked up over 1500, 1500, and 1700 total yards in their first seasons with their new clubs. Now it’s Ward’s turn but unlike those three, he has already burst through the 1000 yard threshold and is well-known to fantasy players. He’s taking the Wind out of the Big Apple, along with his league-leading 5.6 ypc average, and heading to Tampa Bay. But there are some factors that each fantasy owner should take into consideration before drafting Derrick Ward.
Surface: Ward had one of the widest differentials in terms of yards per carry when playing on turf versus playing on grass. In 2008 he averaged 6.6 ypc for 11 games while playing on turf, which includes games played in Giants Stadium. However; when playing on grass Ward averaged only 4.1 ypc for 5 games. So now he’s headed to the green grass of Raymond James Stadium and will play only 4 road games on turf in 2009.
Temperature: Ward is leaving one of the coldest NFL cities for one of the warmest and though his split in numbers between playing in the cold vs. the heat is not as drastic as the playing surface, it is still noteworthy. Last year he played in 8 games where the temperature was less than 60 degrees and 8 games where it was at least 60 degrees. In the colder weather he averaged 5.95 ypc and in the warmer he averaged 5.35 ypc. By the way, Tampa’s average temperature never drops below 60 in any month of the year while in East Rutherford, NJ, which is where Giants Stadium is located, the average temperature reads 66, 55, 46, and 34 from September through December. Whether the split in production is due to him wearing down under the sun or if it was just happenstance, regardless, these are numbers you should consider before drafting Ward.
The last factor is not one that’s exclusive to Ward, but more so to all former backup running backs who ascend to a starting role. Backups tend to have better averages than their starters due in part to not being the primary focus when the other team creates its game plan. But that is also due in part to reserves getting to rest more often throughout a game so whenever they do enter they are usually fresher than the starter who has been wearing the defense down all game. (It also helps when that starter is 6’4” 260 lbs.) Last year when Ward averaged 5.6 ypc, he did it on only 182 carries. As his team’s #1 back he is expected to get well over 200 carries and the only players in NFL history to average at least 5.6 ypc in a season with a minimum of 200 carries are Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, OJ Simpson, and Adrian Peterson. Sorry Derrick, but you’re nowhere near the class of those running backs. Ward’s numbers from last year also show that he performed better when coming off the bench than when starting for the three games that Brandon Jacobs was injured. In those three games he averaged 4.3 ypc as opposed to 6.1 ypc as a sub.
It’s not that Ward will be a bad fantasy back in 2009, in fact I think he will gain at least 1000 yards and average around 4 yards per carry. Just don’t reach for him thinking that he will match the production that Michael Turner had last year. Turner had the luxury of playing his home games on turf where he averaged 4.8 ypc as opposed to 3.9 ypc on grass. With the move to Tampa, Ward loses that luxury. That combined with the other external factors of temperature and touches, plus the likelihood that Earnest Graham will steal some touchdowns as the goal line back, indicate that Ward will supply his fantasy owner with solid, yet unspectacular production.
Tags: Adrian Peterson, Average, Brandon Jacobs, Buccaneers, Chester Taylor, Derrick Ward, Draft Strategy, Earnest Graham, Giants, Lamont Jordan, Michael Turner, New York Giants, Overrated, RB, running back, Statistics, Stats, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
July 27th, 2009 at 10:55 am
I agree that he will not reach Turner numbers but he is a solid back. He has always been under estimated. Last year everyone projected Ahmad Bradshaw to get the bulk of the carries behind Jacobs and counted Ward out. He went out and tripled Bradshaw’s production. So it would not surprise me that he out performs his projected 215 attempts, 1000 yards, and 7 TDs.