I wanted to write a column about the Green Bay Packers, and I thought, hey, why not focus on the team’s catalyst, Aaron Rodgers? My stance concerning Rodgers is straightforward: in my mind, Packers fans couldn’t have asked for a better quarterback to replace Brett Favre. Some would argue that Green Bay never should have dumped Favre, especially as Number Four slices and dices defenses with precision not seen since the mid ‘90s, but one would be hard pressed to find fault with Aaron Rodgers.

There are quarterbacks in the NFL who frustrate fans with errant and downright awful throws (*cough* Cutler *cough*) and others who remind fans on a weekly basis that they shouldn’t be starters (I‘m looking at you, Jake Delhomme). But Rodgers doesn’t fit either mold.

First, he holds the ball instead of trying to force it through defenders. It’s a novel idea, especially for someone who was asked to fill the shoes of Favre, who routinely threw 20 or so interceptions during a season. (Coincidentally, I think Brad Childress may have introduced the “don’t force it” idea to Favre this season, too.) Yes, there are times Rodgers holds the ball too long and takes unnecessary sacks. Those losses are critical; often this season games have been decided by field position. But isn’t it great seeing someone throw over 20 touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions? Rodgers has 22 and 5 through 11 games this season. By the end of the year he’ll likely have a stat-line somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-8.

Furthermore, Rodgers is driving the Packers down the field. He can throw the ball deep just as he can hit a receiver on a quick slant. His mobility in and out of the pocket is stellar; he might not be as fast as Vince Young, but he can escape a pass rush or tuck the ball and run as efficiently as anyone in the NFL. He averages 5.5 yards per carry and has scored three rushing touchdowns this season — few quarterbacks can put up numbers like that. Or, more specifically, few can put up those numbers and pass for 290 yards per week.

The one stat against him in his short career is his win-loss record. At 13-14, Rodgers’ winning percentage is mediocre. But even though some fans like to grade quarterbacks by their wins and losses, let‘s talk a little about the defense. Green Bay has scored at least 23 points in 10 games this season. The offense ranks 6th in scoring this season; last season it ranked 5th. The difference accounting for Green Bay’s higher win percentage this season is the defense: it ranks 12th this season, a huge step up from ranking 22nd as it did a year ago.

That said, the defense has lacked consistency. the Packers have only lost games in which their opponents scored at least 30 points. In fact, the average points per game allowed in wins is around 12. In losses it’s about 34.

The point: Rodgers and the offense are scoring enough points this season; they just need to count on the defense to keep opponents’ scores low. That will need to change when the postseason arrives because the Packers will be playing some high-scoring offenses like New Orleans or Minnesota. Both games will (likely) be in domes; Rodgers, per Sports Data Hub, is averaging 27 fantasy points in dome games. He’s passed for around 334 yards and at least two touchdowns in these games. That’s a good omen for Packers fans. The caveat: they’ve only played one “good” team in a dome: Minnesota. They lost.

Speaking of which, Green Bay has only played a handful of potential playoff teams this season: Minnesota (twice), Dallas, and Cincinnati.

The only team they beat on that short list: Dallas, which, incidentally, has only beaten two teams above .500 — Atlanta (6-5) and Philadelphia (7-4).

At the end of the day, the Packers aren’t contenders, at least not in the postseason. The competition they’ll face is on par with the teams they’ve lost to this season. The defense has often struggled against the best teams on Green Bay’s schedule and, when it has, the Packers have unfailingly lost. Green Bay won’t have Aaron Kampman and Al Harris in the postseason; how will they face down Brett Favre and the Vikings or Drew Brees and the Saints? What about Kurt Warner and the Cardinals?

Green Bay is on a three game winning streak, and few quarterbacks look better than Aaron Rodgers. It’s just a shame he and the Packers have lit up shoddy competition while turning in losses against competitive teams. That’s not what January teams do. Not the successful ones.

Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Contenders, Defense, Green Bay Packers, Offense, Playoffs, Postseason, Pretenders, Quarterback

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Entry posted on Tuesday, December 1st, 2009 at 6:47 pm. Filed under tags: Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Contenders, Defense, Green Bay Packers, Offense, Playoffs, Postseason, Pretenders, Quarterback,
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