“I have yet to be in a game where the most prepared team didn’t win. ” – Urban Meyer
“The will to win is important, but the will to prepare is vital.” – Joe Paterno

There is no doubt that in sports, preparation is an advantage. The evolution of coaching has continuously leveraged available technology to make improvements in team preparation. Recognizing this fact, Sports Analytics have started to spread beyond the initial hardcore audience of baseball into other sports like basketball, soccer, and football.  Sports Analytics concepts are being used by successful sports teams, reinforcing their emerging value and popularity.  In the next few years, Sports Analytics will continue to mature and begin to reach full bloom as more and more teams and staffs leverage sports data as a very sharp weapon against their opponents. Soon it will become a question of which teams can analyze their data better, faster, and most effectively apply it.

In this blog and the three parts that follow, I’ve outlined a few ideas on WHY and HOW to pursue an organized Sports Analytics strategy to improve your team preparation.

WHY?

The short answer as you may have guessed from the introductory paragraph…. is to “improve your team preparation”. But what exactly does “improve your team preparation” mean?  This relatively simple concept can be deconstructed into many pieces, depending on your point of view. Below are a few of the factors that, I believe, make Sports Analytics important:

•    Knowledge – New results, relationships, information, or metrics that can be used to determine areas of strength or weakness of yourself or your opponent.  Gaining more knowledge and a deeper understanding of the key factors to success increases gives you more weapons to use against your opponent.

•    Focus – Identifying the key factors to success, allows you to better select meaningful priorities and to focus your resources on the most beneficial activities. When resources are limited, placing emphasis on the activities that may result in the biggest performance gains is a big step towards success.

•    Efficiency – The combination of increased knowledge and clear focus allows you to do better work on the items that are the most important. In essence this boils down to “How much good work can you get out of your staff / players?” If you do not provide the opportunity to increase their knowledge, in addition to clear direction, they will not perform at their best.

•    Effectiveness – It’s one thing to have efficient staff/players that you’ve positioned to be knowledgeable, focused, and efficient, but the bottom line is their level effectiveness. Are they getting the job done? Effectiveness involves not only putting them in the position to be successful, but also the personal components of each person themselves. What is their personality type? How much experience do they have? What is their learning, teaching, or leadership style? All of these personal traits determine how effective each person will be in their role. In the end, to determine effectiveness in adequate detail, you need metrics to measure success or failure and re-adjust their knowledge and or focus.

•    Motivation/Morale – Nobody likes to do busy/tedious/meaningless work. It can impart a feeling of low self-esteem and can drain energy and motivation. After all, if what you do makes no difference…why do it? Finding ways to reduce tedious work makes people feel that the work they do does make a difference.  When they feel needed, and respected, they will likely want to take on more work and take more pride in the quality of their work. In the end, this reduction of busy work can help to make sure that morale is positive, even under heavy workloads.

•    Competition – These concepts are growing in use and popularity. Your competitors are likely already using these approaches against you. If you do not arm yourself with and understanding of these tools, you run the risk of falling behind in the competitive sports arms race. Even today there are coaches and teams that are using Sports Analytics methods with great success.

Sports Data Hub is proud to be a sponsor of the 2010 MIT Sports Analytics Conference on March 6th, 2010. This growing conference is a great opportunity for sports industry leaders and students to share thoughts and interests around the increasing role of sports analytics. There are a number of compelling guest speakers and panelists representing the sports media, sports teams, and players. Featured speakers range from Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball to Bill Polian, President of the Indianapolis Colts.

The agenda is packed full of interesting topics about baseball and basketball analytics, as well as emerging areas for analytics, such as coaching decision making. It’s also nice to start to see football topics represented.

Sports Data Hub will have a booth at the conference presenting a demo of our sports analytics ‘magic wall’ (think 42” iPhone).  Our ‘magic wall’ makes navigating sports analytic data as easy as using your finger.

If you’re going to be attending, be sure to stop by our booth and say hi.  I’m sure we can impress you with our demo and our products.

-Kevin

• The average number of points scored by the winning Super Bowl team is 30.1 points while the average for the losing team is 15.3 points.  However, those numbers are somewhat skewed by the assortment of rule changes that have favored the offenses.  Before the adoption of the illegal contact penalty in 1978, the average score was 23.4 to 9.6.

• Drew Brees has yet to win a playoff game outside of the Superdome.  If the Saints win the Super Bowl then Brees will become just the 8th QB to have his first career non-home playoff win come in the Super Bowl.  The last to do it was the recently retired Kurt Warner in 1999.

• By the time Super Bowl XLIV starts, it will have been exactly 400 days since the Colts lost a game in which Peyton Manning played into the 4th quarter and 504 days since they lost to a team that plays a 4-3 defense under that same condition.

• Speaking of 4-3 defenses: the Colts will finally play one in the playoffs for the first time since Super Bowl XLI against the Bears.  Indy has not lost a playoff game to a 4-3 team since January 4, 2003.

• If Adam Vinatieri plays vs. the Saints then it will be his sixth Super Bowl which will tie the most ever by a single player (Mike Lodish).  If the Colts win then Vinatieri will have five Super Bowl wins which will tie him with Charles Haley for the most all-time.

• The Colts’ current starting kicker, Matt Stover turned 42 on January 27, 2010 which means he will be the oldest player to ever play in the Super Bowl once the game comes around.

• Jim Caldwell will seek to become the 3rd rookie head coach to win a Super Bowl joining George Seifert and Don McCafferty.  Like Seifert (Walsh) and McCafferty (Shula), Caldwell is following in the footsteps of a hall of fame coach (Dungy) and all 3 coaches had the luxury of coaching a QB that can arguably be considered the greatest of all time.  (McCafferty had Unitas, Seifert had Montana, and Caldwell has Manning).

• Drew Brees has fumbled 6 times in 5 career playoff games and he has fumbled 12 times in 17 games played this season.  That’s not good news especially considering the fact that Robert Mathis leads the NFL with 31 FFs since 2004 and Dwight Freeney is 3rd over that span with 23 FFs.

• If the Saints are to win then Brees will have to overcome his history of poor performances in Miami.  In two career games at Pro Player/Dolphin Stadium, Brees has thrown 1 TD compared to 4 INTs while being sacked 8 times.

• Speaking of playing surface, Brees has struggled when playing on grass this year as compared to turf while Manning has actually played better on grass than turf despite playing his home games in a dome.  Here is how their numbers stack up when playing on grass:

Anyone who’s paid close attention to the offensive alignment of the Colts during the Manning-era knows exactly where the receivers will line up on a given play.  For years it was always Marvin Harrison on the right (now Pierre Garcon) and Reggie Wayne on the left.  In fact it’s almost mind-boggling when you look at the split statistics of Wayne and Harrison: 74.4% of Wayne’s 676 career receptions have come left of the hashmarks and 73.3% of Harrison’s 1102 career receptions came right of the hashmarks.  Since the two were never aligned side-by-side, then on nearly every play at least one of them was left on single-man coverage and Manning could exploit that matchup.  Now that Harrison is presumably retired, Wayne is left as the focal point of the Colts’ passing attack and he is double-teamed much more than in the past and that has affected Peyton Manning’s numbers.

The chart above shows Peyton Manning’s 2009 pass distribution as related to touchdown and interception percentage.  I chose to use these stats instead of raw TDs and INTs due to there being a varying degree of passing attempts among the three directions.  The first thing that jumps out to me in this chart is how close Manning’s TD% is to his INT% when throwing to the left side (i.e. Reggie Wayne).  It was nearly a 1:1 ratio for the ’09 season as Manning threw 12 TDs compared to 11 INTs as opposed to the other two areas in which Peyton threw for 21 TDs compared to 4 INTs.

The double coverage that Wayne gets is one reason why Peyton’s numbers dip when throwing left, but another reason is the fact that since Peyton is right-handed, he is throwing across his body whenever he throws left.  That is something that pretty much every right-handed QB struggles with and it is the same for lefties when they have to throw right.  The other Super Bowl QB, Drew Brees, is another righty who struggled throwing left as compared to every other direction.  Only 4 of his 34 TDs came when throwing left but the difference between the Saints and the Colts is that New Orleans doesn’t designate its receivers as a LWR and a RWR.  You could see Colston, Meachem, or Henderson line up in either one of those positions as well as in the slot.  Thus, Brees can theoretically avoid throwing in that direction since it’s his weakness and instead go to his right where he is more comfortable throwing towards.

There have only been 33 left-handed quarterbacks in NFL history so there is not that great of a sample size to study pass direction.  But there have been a few southpaws that have received enough playing time recently since the NFL started tracking this stat, namely Michael Vick, Chris Simms, and Drew Brees’ backup, Mark Brunell.  In the graph below you can see the split statistics among these three lefties and the first thing I noticed is that unlike Brees and Manning, these QBs’ TDs come predominantly from the left side as opposed to the right side.  It’s just a natural tendency for QBs to prefer to throw to their strong side.  The defensive players all know that, but will they be able to stop it?  We’ll find out on Sunday.

It seems that every year around this time we consider the futures of two NFL quarterbacks: Brett Favre, who tends to waffle on retirement until at least April or, last year, July; and Donovan McNabb, who is rumored to be traded constantly.

This year the latter rumor is very interesting to consider, partly because McNabb might be destined to replace Favre in Minnesota, or Warner in Arizona.

In Philadelphia, three household names might be elsewhere next season. McNabb tops the list, but he’s followed closely by long-time and oft-injured teammate Brian Westbrook and unorthodox quarterback Michael Vick.

Donovan McNabb has been pressed constantly to give us an update on what he expects to happen. His replies have thus far been vanilla.

Will you be in Philadelphia next season? “Why wouldn’t I be? I mean we’ve been going through this the last two, three years. I don’t want to be anywhere else but Philly. I don’t believe in starting somewhere and going somewhere else to finish your career. I believe in starting somewhere and finishing what you’ve started.”

What do you know about Brian Westbrook’s future? “He looks forward to getting back. All the talk people are saying retirement or whatever it may be, it’s all false.”

Will Vick be back for a second season? “Yes.”

In other words, if you talk to Donovan McNabb, all three players are going to be back and as good as ever.

Talk to a journalist, on the other hand, and you might get a different story. Chris Mortensen asked McNabb point blank whether he actually believed he was going to be back. McNabb didn’t miss a beat and asked Mort why he shouldn’t expect to be back.

McNabb has been through all the ups and downs in the NFL. He knows nothing is certain, but he also knows that we’ve been questioning his return to Philadelphia for the past three years now, ever since the team drafted Kevin Kolb in 2007. Since then, Kolb has started two games and thrown four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Quarterback of the future? Maybe. But the future isn’t now.

That said, the speculation certainly makes for a fascinating offseason storyline. Michael Vick showed fans flashes of being a game-changer in his limited role, spiking his value to Philadelphia‘s front office if the franchise choose to trade him. Brian Westbrook, on the other hand, missed seven games this season after concussions left him in haze. Will he return? It’s hard to say. Perhaps more intriguing, will he return to the Eagles? If he chooses to play again in 2010, the Eagles might request a pay-cut; should he refuse, he might have to take his talent and injuries elsewhere.

Westbrook hasn’t averaged fewer than four yards per carry in a season in his career. He only touched the ball 86 times this past season, but he still netted 455 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns. There are plenty of teams that would pay for that kind of production, history of injuries or not. After all, he only missed a combined four games in the previous three seasons. And concussions, while obviously serious in the long term, are not as much of a deal breaker as, say, a knee injury.

Michael Vick doesn’t have come with injury baggage, though. His baggage is of another kind. But, again, there are teams very willing to look past his history and at his performance on the field. He was used only sparingly in Philadelphia’s offense, but that didn’t stop him from showcasing his talent and passing for 86 yards and a touchdown and rushing for another 95 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers don’t exactly pop off the page, but when you consider he only handled 13 pass attempts and ran with it 24 times out of what was essentially a “gadget” formation, it’s enough to convince some teams he can still start at quarterback.

Consider the Redskins. Jason Campbell hasn’t proven he can be a starter or a winner in this league. Add to the equation a new head coach and different philosophy, and Campbell’s time may be up. The team can afford to get Vick and put him on the field to shake things up and increase the offense’s volatility. Of course, would the Eagles be willing to trade Vick to a division rival? Probably not.

So how about the Raiders? Vick is fast with a strong arm, the two key indications of an ideal Raiders prospect. Jamarcus Russell certainly seems to be a bust at this stage, so why not give Vick a shot to lead the team somewhere? He complements the rest of the offense - bad O-line, fast receivers, explosive running back - so if Oakland can put together a trade package, don’t be surprised to see Vick in silver and black.

Just don’t expect the Eagles to deal McNabb and keep Vick around. There are plenty of McNabb haters in Philadelphia, but Andy Reid isn’t one of the team. He wants his quarterback around in 2010, and it’s hard to find any fault in his logic: McNabb is coming off a season in which he passed the ball for 3,553 yards and 22 touchdowns. Overall, his numbers the past two seasons have been the best statistically of the past five years.

Whatever happens this season, stay tuned. The Eagles need to consider trading three players at key positions, and where they end up will have big implications for 2010.

Every time I watched the Chargers play, it always amazed me how often Philip Rivers hooked up with one of his receivers for a deep pass. Lots of QBs pile up big numbers because their receivers gain YAC but it always seems that with the Chargers, most of their yardage comes from when the ball is in the air (Sproles not withstanding). Thus, I tracked down the stats of all of the playoff QBs’ numbers when they threw a pass 30 or more yards.
It’s important to note that these are not 30+ yard pass plays but rather only plays in which the ball was in the air for 30 or more yards. Here are the yardage results on these plays as well as the number of 30+ yard pass completions for each playoffs QB:

Rivers’ efficiency in throwing the deep ball is unparalleled; in fact, McNabb and Romo were the only QBs who had more 30+ yard completions than Rivers had 40+ yard completions (7). It certainly helps to have a pair of 6′5″ receivers who can go up and pull down the pass but you still have to be accurate enough to put the receiver in such a position. Much was made of Rivers’ funky throwing motion when coming out of NC State, but none of that should matter for any QB as long as he can put the ball where it needs to be.

When you look closer at his stats, you see that Rivers even has the chance to improve upon his average of 8.75 yards per attempt as now he doesn’t have to throw those 6-yard out routes to Chris Chambers just to keep his morale up.  Thru the first half of the season (with Chambers), Rivers averaged 8.19 yards YPA but during the last half of the season (without Chambers), Rivers averaged 9.48 YPA.  If he can maintain that 9.48 average over an entire season, then Rivers will have the third highest YPA in a single season since 1954.  Chambers’ mere presence in the lineup seemed to negatively affect Rivers; here’s how Rivers’ stats improved once Chambers was released:

Looking ahead to 2010, Philip Rivers will make for a great draft pick for those that play in leagues that award bonus points to big plays.  It wasn’t like this was a one-year phenomenon as in 2008 Rivers had 10 pass completions of at least 30 yards and led the NFL in yards per pass attempt.  It is clear that the Chargers are a pass-first team now and LT, Sproles, or whomever they draft will take a backseat to the passing offense for the foreseeable future.

Brandon Marshall is becoming a lightning rod for attention, and in all the wrong ways. He demanded a preseason trade and was met with a resounding “no” from new head coach Josh McDaniels, who, already under fire after trading former “franchise” quarterback Jay Cutler, was not about to lose another Pro Bowl. So, naturally, Marshall threw a tantrum that would make any two-year old proud: he batted down passes during practice and punted footballs away from ball boys standing mere feet from him.

Everyone knows what happened next: McDaniels benched him. Eighteen weeks later he benched him again, this time from participating in a meaningful game, one that could have launched the Broncos to the postseason (had they received some help, which they didn’t).

Ignoring Marshall’s antics for the time being, consider what happened after Marshall was benched. The Broncos lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, a team they had beaten to a pulp, 44-13, just a few weeks before. But they didn’t just “lose.” They lost their fourth straight and the eighth of their final ten. They were embarrassed at home, 44-24, by a division rival. They had missed the postseason for the second consecutive season.

Imagine if Marshall had played. Kyle Orton threw three interceptions without his favorite target on the field. Seeing the Broncos without Marshall was like watching the 49ers without Terrell Owens or the Vikings without Randy Moss. It was pitiful, really. The offense was outscored 34-14 in the second half just four weeks after outscoring the same Chiefs 30-7 in the final two quarters. Jabar Gaffney put up some impressive numbers — 14 receptions for 213 yards — but Orton never found him in the endzone. Maybe because he’s two inches shorter and 30 pounds lighter than Marshall.

That’s what Marshall brings to the table: size, physicality, and a presence. He has 307 receptions the past three seasons — only Wes Welker has more. His 3,710 receiving yards is matched only by the elites at his position, players like Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, and Roddy White (in that order). He’s been selected to the past two Pro Bowls and proven he can adapt to any kind of quarterback; Jay Cutler was the gunslinger and Kyle Orton was the game manager, but both threw Marshall the rock over 100 times each season they took snaps from the center.

At the end of the day, Marshall is the most intriguing prospect this offseason. As a restricted free agent there are plenty of rumors suggesting the team will trade him for value in this year’s draft. (Perhaps with hopes of drafting the next star wide receiver.) Some of the teams are more likely than others to end up with Marshall when 2010 kicks off, but these are my favorites with my thoughts on each.

Most Likely: Washington Redskins

Daniel Snyder rivals Jerry Jones in his desire to win and his willingness to spend money to do it. He’s not as wise as Jones, but he loves throwing money at players. Besides, someone like Marshall would be perfect for Washington’s (*yawn*) offense. But remember: the guy who has the final say in getting Marshall is none other than ex-Broncos coach Mike Shanahan. He drafted Marshall and might not mind getting him again to kick off his renovation of the ‘Skins.

Certainly a Possibility: Seattle Seahawks

Pete Carroll is the new sheriff in Seattle, and he’s brought some big guns with him, all of whom were at one point or another in Denver: Alex Gibbs, who turned Terrell Davis into a 2,000 yard rusher, Jeremy Bates, and Jedd Fisch, who Marshall said, “had us prepared week in and week out. He’s a guy who got the best out of me, no matter what.”

Well, Maybe: Baltimore Ravens

Joe Flacco needs a young wide receiver with loads of talent and Marshall might be the player to deliver. Problems stem from this situation, best described by Carroll County Times writer Aaron Wilson (also of Pro Football Talk):

“As one of the final eight playoff teams, the Ravens would be unable to sign an unrestricted free agent until they lose one of their own unrestricted free agents. Plus, the team can’t sign that player for more money than the free agent it loses.

“The Ravens would be allowed to sign just one player with a salary of $4.925 million or higher. They would be allowed to sign players with a first-year compensation level of $3.2 million that can’t climb any more than 30 percent in the subsequent years.”

In other words, Marshall might be above their price ceiling.

At the End of the Day: Denver Broncos

Whether Broncos fans or Josh McDaniels want Marshall in the locker room days one through six is debatable, but one thing is certain: he is a force to be reckoned on with on Sundays. He’s a 100-reception, 1,000 yard guarantee, and someone the Broncos will find difficult to replace with one player. And, as we all witnessed during the season, Denver can use all the help it can get on offense until McDaniels and staff find their footing.

When you take a look at Matt Cassel’s 2008 stats and you factor in the appointment of Charlie Weis as Chiefs’ OC, you realize that Kansas City is faced with a paradox: Charlie Weis loves to employ the spread offense which frequently has at least 3, but often 4 or 5 receivers on the field at a time. But Cassel struggles in multiple receiver sets where it’s tougher to read defenses and throw the ball downfield. (With the stats below, receivers are counted as anyone who lines up out wide or in the slot; thus, running backs and tight ends flexed out are counted as receivers).

So what should the Chiefs do? Forcing Cassel into the spread could be like fitting a square peg into a round hole. I thought about the Chiefs possibly utilizing Cassel more in the shotgun which would give him a little more time to avoid the rush and a better look at the defensive alignment. However, that idea was put to rest once I saw these stats:

Cassel’s metrics show him as an average passer when in the traditional offensive formation: under center and with only 2 wide receivers. However, when forced to perform in the Todd Haley-friendly (and soon to be Weis-friendly) shotgun-spread formations, Cassel enters JaMarcus Russell-territory. No one expected Cassel to do as well in Kansas City as he did in New England but not even his biggest critics expected his passer rating to drop 20 points. Perhaps he and Weis can come up with some sort of a compromise as to what kind of offense they are both comfortable running and Cassel can show why he was worth $63 million. Or perhaps it was just the “Patriots system” that made Cassel in 2007 and in 2008 he showed why he was a 7th round pick.

However, I’m not ready to label the Cassel trade a disaster for KC just yet as he needs more than one season to prove his worth.  With the way that Jamaal Charles finished his 2009 season look for the Chiefs to feature him prominently in 2010 which could actually help Cassel’s numbers just as Chris Johnson did for Vince Young.  Expect shorter passes to boost Cassel’s completion percentage but that will inversely affect his yards per attempt.  As for his QB rating, Cassel’s such a high-volume passer that his rating has no choice but to go up.  His 69.9 season passer rating was the lowest in six years for a QB who had at least 490 pass attempts.  Weis loves for his QB to spread the ball around a la the pre-Welker/pre-Moss Patriots who didn’t have a 1000-yard receiver from 2002-2006.  While that may ultimately hurt Dwayne Bowe’s numbers, it should boost Cassel’s back into fantasy relevance.  He may never live up to his $63 million contract, but at least for 2010 he is a high-end QB2 who could see a spot-start during bye weeks.

Only one team in NFL history has had a 4000 yard passer, a 1200 yard rusher, and two 1000 yard receivers in back-to-back years.  That team is the Green Bay Packers whose star players all reached those marks in 2008 and 2009.  Even though they were one-and-done in the playoffs, this Packers team has a bright future and could be reminiscent of the mid 1990s Packers teams that had explosive offenses and made it to back-to-back Super Bowls.  As with most teams that aspire to get to the Super Bowl, it all starts with the QB and the Packers have one of the best in the game.

If solely looking at the stats, it’s hard to argue with the claim that Aaron Rodgers was the 2009 MVP.  Not only did he become the first QB in NFL history to throw for 4000 yards in each of his first two years as a starter, but he was also extremely efficient and careful with the ball.  He is only the second QB ever to throw for at least 30 TDs while throwing 7 or fewer INTs in a season (ironically the other player is Brett Favre).  Rodgers also can be productive with his legs as he became just the third player to rush for at least 300 yards and 5 TDs while still throwing for over 4000 yards. Not surprisingly, Rodgers led all QBs in fantasy points in a regular scoring format and just missed out on beating Chris Johnson for the most overall.  At just 26 and with only 33 starts under his belt, Rodgers has not yet reached his full potential and he could have a Steve Young/Rich Gannon type of fantasy impact over the next decade as far as piling up stats by passing and running.

Ryan Grant (27) may be unspectacular, but boy is he productive.  Grant was 7th in both rushing yards and in rushing touchdowns despite averaging fewer than 15 rushing attempts over the last month of the season.  Grant went over 1,200 rushing yards in both 2008 and 2009 which is something only three other RBs did (Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Thomas Jones).  In fact, since becoming a starter midway through the 2007 season, Grant has averaged 80 rushing yards per game in his 37 starts and only Adrian Peterson has more rushing yards than Grant has since November 2007.  But something Grant is doing better than AD is at holding onto the ball as he had just one lost fumble compared to Peterson’s 6 lost fumbles for 2009.  There were 14 running backs who had at least 225 rushing attempts in 2009 but Grant was just one of 4 players to lose fewer than 2 fumbles.

Due to the Packers’ O-line struggling early in the season; Aaron Rodgers wasn’t afforded much time to go deep and that hurt Greg Jennings’ (26) numbers during the first half of the season.  But he, and the O-line, soon regrouped and Jennings was back to the dynamic playmaker that he’s always been.  The proof is in the numbers: Through his first four seasons, Jennings has more receiving yards (3957) than Santonio Holmes (3835) and more receiving TDs (28) than Brandon Marshall (25) both of whom were part of the 2006 draft class along with Jennings.

The old man of the group is Donald Driver (34) but you couldn’t tell that by looking at his stats.  Driver went over 1000 receiving yards for the sixth year in a row which makes him and Reggie Wayne the only players to reach that mark every year from 2004 to 2009.  Driver also posted an impressive 15.2 yards per reception average which is his highest in 7 years.  Even though he will be 35 for the 2010 season, receivers typically don’t suffer much of a drop-off in production until AFTER they’ve played a season at the age of 35.  This previous post affirms that theory.

The 2009 season may have been TE Jermichael Finley’s (22) last season of fantasy anonymity as he is primed to become one of the elite options at his position for years to come.  Despite missing three games, Finley still finished with 55 receptions for 676 yards and 5 TDs which translates into 67 catches and over 800 receiving yards over a 16 game season.  As a staple of the West Coast offense, the tight end position is frequently targeted and as a whole, the Packers’ tight ends combined for 99 receptions for 1048 yards and 10 TDs.

These are just the main weapons that are part of the Packers’ offensive attack but Green Bay also has young promising players such as 3rd down back Brandon Jackson (24), slot receiver James Jones (25), and return specialist/slot receiver Jordy Nelson (24).  All 3 of those players were first day draft picks so it’s obvious that the Packers’ front office has high expectations of them.  With an O-line that has no choice but to improve, the Packers of the 2010s could join the Colts (2000s), 49ers (1990s), and Chargers (1980s) as a team with an offense that dominated for much of a decade

After the hugely disappointing playoff loss to the Cowboys, the Eagles are faced with two tough decisions pertaining to the futures of two of the most popular players in franchise history, Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook.  McNabb will turn 34 in 2010 and is due $11.2 million next season. The Eagles could elect to give the reigns to Kevin Kolb who is 8 years younger, over $10 million cheaper, and is entering the last year of his contract (as is McNabb). Just as coaches don’t want to be “lame ducts”, quarterbacks don’t either and McNabb could want out if he’s not offered a contract extension.
You may ask yourself, “Why would the Eagles want to get rid of McNabb after he had another stellar season (postseason notwithstanding)?  Well, if you take a closer look at McNabb’s numbers then you could see why some Philly fans want him gone.  You always want your QB to perform best when the game is on the line and despite McNabb having a passer rating of 92.9 for the season, it dipped to 76.1during the 4th quarter when the game was within 7 points in either direction.  During these situations McNabb did not throw any TDs in 48 pass attempts but did throw a pick and was sacked 4 times.  Another area where McNabb’s play declined was in the second half of games.  In the first half he posted a rating of 105.3 with 16 TDs and just 3 INTs.  But in the second half his rating dropped to 77.5 and he threw more INTs (7) than TDs (6).  He was also sacked three more times in the second halves of games despite taking 44 fewer snaps than in the first half.  For a city like Philadelphia that is seeking a hard-nosed, clutch guy to lead them to the Super Bowl; those statistics would seem to only reaffirm their belief that McNabb is not the guy that can win the big one.

The other big decision for Eagles’ brass is what to do with Brian Westbrook.  Some people expect him to retire after yet another injury-filled season but this one was the worst of all with him suffering two concussions in the span of a month.  Apart from the injury concerns, there are also the factors of age, production, and his salary cap value.  Westbrook will be 31 next season and he plays a position that hasn’t been to kind to 30+ running backs unless you’re a physical freak of nature (Thomas Jones) or you basically sat out for 3 seasons (Ricky Williams).  Westbrook is more of a speed back and that, along with a runner’s agility, are usually are the first things to go once you pass the 30-year-old mark.

The last factor regarding Westbrook’s future with Philadelphia is his contract.  He is due 7.25 million dollars next season compared to LeSean McCoy’s 2010 salary of $395,000.  There’s no way the Eagles are going to pay $7.25 million to someone that touches the ball <10 times a game and is a huge injury risk.  He would have to drastically reduce his salary in order to come back for another year but even if he does return, his days as a fantasy star are over.

These are tough decisions to make for the Eagles’ management and it will likely spell the end of one of the best QB-RB tandems of the past decade.  In my opinion, the Eagles’ front office will let go of the guy the fans want back (Westbrook) while holding onto the guy that the fans want gone (McNabb).