The Hype

A year ago at this time you’d call me crazy if I told you this is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. 12 months later and some significant changes have swayed mindsets; Miami is considered a viable contender, and few consider Atlanta’s shocking 11-5 record in 2008 to be an anomaly.

The question is, can both of these cinderella stories repeat in 2009? Is either destined for the postseason? What will head coach Tony Sparano unveil in Miami this season, after turning the NFL on its ear with the wildcat in 2008? And is Matt Ryan ready to take another step forward in 2009, developing into a big fantasy option at quarterback?

This game will answer some of those pressing questions.

When You Look at Miami …

The Miami Dolphins aren’t stunning on paper. Chad Pennington was recycled out of New York last offseason after years of injuries plagued his otherwise promising career. Ronnie Brown is a rare talent at running back, but his health is a question mark; he’s never started 16 games in a single season. Ted Ginn Jr. is the star at wide receiver, but some still question his size and whether he’s capable of being a legitimate red zone threat.

But those guys are all healthy this week.

One factor playing against Miami is the wildcat’s “so last year” status. Defensive coordinators have been writing up plays and studying tape since they unveiled it week three of last season against the New England Patriots. Granted, the wild cat was only use a few times per game last season, but it was often a source of significant success; whether they’ll be helped by it as much this year is up in the air.

Furthermore, this isn’t an offense that put up a lot of points last season. Miami scored more than 30 twice during the season, while being held to under 20 in eight other games. Furthermore, Miami played a relatively weak schedule last season, facing just 3 playoff teams: Arizona, Baltimore, and San Diego. Those three teams held Miami to 10, 17, and 13 points, respectively.

This is not an easy game for Miami. The Falcons finished 11th in scoring defense last season, a number they’re no doubt trying to improve further. Don’t expect Miami to post much more than 20-23 on the scoreboard in this one.

When You Look at Atlanta …

Matt Ryan is the new face of this franchise, the chosen quarterback who made Georgia residents forget all about the controversy Michael Vick brought to the state a year before Ryan’s arrival. He had an outstanding 2008 season, posting enough wins and numbers to garner a rookie of the year award.

Having said that, this is still home to the “Michael Turner Show.” “Burner” posted stratospheric rushing totals last season, falling just one yard short of 1,700 and breaking the goal line 17 times. Jerious Norwood will be healthy enough to change pace for the Falcons, so expect him to get his fair share of carries and, especially, receptions.

The big point for this game — and the season — is this: don’t assume the Tony Gonzalez acquisition is going to result in significantly better passing totals for Ryan; Atlanta is going to run the ball down the throats of every team on their schedule; 35-plus rushes per game is not unrealistic, nor is limiting Ryan to under 30 pass attempts.

After Looking Around …

This is a game I suspect will be won by the best defense and ball-control offense. Neither of these teams turned the ball over a lot last season, but Miami’s run defense is a little suspect. Teams usually passed the ball against Miami last season, but most had some solid success when they kept things on the ground.

In the end, I’ll give the ever-so-slight edge to Atlanta. They’re playing at home and Michael Turner is very fresh; the critical factor will be Matt Ryan’s rate of turnovers. He played like a seasoned veteran for the most part last season, but he’s still very young. Any turnovers the Falcons commit could be the difference in this game.

The Projections/Most Likelies

Sports Data Hub does projections for every game of the season. (Just click this link to find ‘em all — for free!) These are my limited personal projections for this game — if you want to see what my colleagues and fantasy-extraordinaires have predicted, you’ll have to check out the link.

Most Likely to Go Big: Ronnie Brown — No Greg Camarillo means the Dolphins will focus their efforts on running the ball. Atlanta was weak against good running game’s last season; the 1-2 punch of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will hurt them a lot in this one. Expect at least 100 yards all-purpose and a score or two to boot.

Most Likely to Go Home: Roddy White — The Falcons are going to stick to running the ball in this one, especially when they get in the red zone. If they do pass it near the endzone, expect Matt Ryan to target the new kid on the block, Tony Gonzalez.

I’m a fantasy football addict, so while it may be a bit surprising to learn I’m going to write a fantasy football mock draft when the NFL’s annual event is less than a month away, it’s actually going to be a fun and productive process. It’s nice to decide on fantasy rankings and projections, but a mock draft seems to simplify the process a bit. More importantly, mock drafts are just flat out fun things to do.

But with no further ado, let me introduce you to Sports Data Hub’s first one-man first round fantasy mock draft, or SDHFOMFRFMD … whichever rolls off the tongue more smoothly for you. (Better idea, make up a name and let me hear it so I can use it on the next mock!)

Enjoy!

1. Adrian Peterson - RB - Minnesota Vikings

Maybe you’re not surprised to see Peterson headlining here, but you’ll probably be surprised to hear I’m not totally sold on him as being the top fantasy producer in 2009. Yes, he rushed for over 1,700 yards in 2008 and yes, I think he’ll break 1,500 yards without much effort in 2009. But he’s a one-dimensional back who rarely contributes to the already wan passing game. It’s also worth noting his touchdown total actually went down between 2007-2008 as he rushed for just 10 touchdowns last season. Unless Minnesota improves its passing game, I doubt he’ll see more endzone opportunities this season.

2. Michael Turner - RB - Atlanta Falcons

Talk about a breakout season. Michael “The Burner” Turner scored 17 rushing touchdowns while racking up an impressive 1,699 rushing yards. Like Peterson, he was a virtual non-factor in the passing game, but his scoring far exceeded any drawbacks. He’s definitely a top two pick this season, as his numbers should only improve as the passing game does the same. Admittedly, however, it would be nice to see him get involved in catching more than 6 receptions.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew - RB - Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s hard to watch Jones-Drew fall even this far and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move up on some boards before actual fantasy drafts take place this summer. It’s easy to dismiss him because he hasn’t yet broken 1,000 rushing yards, but his contributions to the Jaguars passing game are undeniable. Average his numbers the past three seasons and he clocks in at over 1,300 yards and about 13 touchdowns. And that was while splitting carries with now-released Freddy Taylor. Expect great things from MJD in 2009.

4. Matt Forte - RB - Chicago Bears

A rookie who handles over 300 carries is a lock to be given at least as many his sophomore season, especially when he also scores 12 touchdowns and picks up over 1,700 yards from scrimmage. I love the fact he also managed 63 receptions. Nearly 370 attempts his rookie season? Expect a big number again in 2009 - more opportunities to produce is always a good thing. 

5. DeAngelo Williams - RB - Carolina Panthers

He probably won’t score 20 touchdowns again, but conservative estimates project Williams to pick up 1,400 yards from scrimmage and score 13+ touchdowns. The short back has power and is a lock to snag at least 25 receptions, too. Williams was amazing in 2008; expect stunning in 2009.

6. Peyton Manning - QB - Indianapolis Colts

I love Peyton Manning and I can’t think of a more consistent quarterback in the league today, or a fantasy quarterback I would rather have. The Colts didn’t lose offensive coordinator Tom Moore and most of the staff is still firmly intact. Manning had a slow start during the entire first half of the season, yet turned things around to win the MVP award. Imagine if he had played the entire season as well as he did the second half of 2008. In-cre-di-ble.

7. Steve Slaton - RB - Houston Texans

Lots of rookies, eh? It’s hard to argue against Slaton, though. Like peer Chris Johnson (see below), he scored 10 touchdowns from scrimmage and, similarly, he played active roles in both the running and passing games, handling 318 touches and taking them 1,650 yards. He’s the featured back in an improving offense, one that will continue to feed him the ball 75-80% of the time.
8. Chris Johnson - RB - Tennessee Titans

The Titans speediest back came to play last season, his first in the NFL. But with just under 250 carries he nearly broke 1,250 rushing yards. Furthermore, he scored 10 touchdowns and was a nice contributor in the passing game, having handled 43 receptions to bring his yards from scrimmage mark up to nearly 1,500. Not bad for a back who split carries. He’s the Titans playmaker on offense - expect more success in ‘09.

9. Brian Westbrook - RB - Philadelphia Eagles

I won’t lie - it’s always a little nerve-racking to draft a 30-year old running back who has never played a complete season in his career. Still, Westbrook is so versatile and dynamic, I can’t drop him out of the top ten. Despite finishing with a 936 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns, Westbrook saved his season with yet another solid year catching the ball: 54 receptions, 402 yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. Add it up and he was a top 10 back … again.

10. Frank Gore - RB - 49ers

Gore finished the season with some wear-and-tear and a sub-par fantasy season: just 6 rushing touchdowns. Still, he picked up a lot of yards (over 1,400 from scrimmage) and added an additional 2 scores as a receiver. The offense figures to run a lot again in 2009 with Mike Singletary leading the team, and Gore should rebound. Keep in mind, however, Gore has never scored more than 9 times in a season.

11. Marion Barber - RB - Dallas Cowboys

Barber could fluctuate a lot between now and September, depending on the ultimate role he plays in the offense. Still, considering Felix Jones was around last season to steal receptions from Barber, it’s very comforting to see he wound up with more than 50 on the season. More important, he garnered 1,300 yards and scored 9 touchdowns. I expect his total touchdown mark to go up in 2009, at least into the lower double digits.

12. Clinton Portis - RB - Washington Redskins

He’s consistenly - and quietly - one of the best backs in the league. Last season he nearly rushed for 1,500 yards and finished with over 1,700 yards from scrimmage. He scored just 9 touchdowns, however, that being his only drawback. If he stays healthy he’s a lock for 300+ carries and 25+ receptions in 2009.

There you have it. That’s how I’d pick ‘em in a basic scoring league (6 points per touchdown, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiver, 1 point per 25 yards passing). What would you do differently? Let me know in the comments!

I’m not certain about this statistic, but I think it’s safe to say that less than 10 percent of the fantasy football playing population follows self-directed fantasy football research. In fact, I would venture to guess the number is closer to 1 percent; probably less. That means if you get involved in your own fantasy football research - and do it right, which is partly the focus of this article - you’ll probably wind up with a satisfying draft that puts you on a good course for the postseason.

Let’s be honest, this is how most fans’ offseason goes. Most fantasy players spend mornings reading the sports section in the newspaper, catching Matthew Berry’s nuggets of information on ESPN, and, in general, trying to keep up with the player/coaching movements. Few will keep close enough tabs, however, and they’ll wind up spending seven bucks on a fantasy football guide in June or July and read some of the articles before tearing out the cheat sheets on game day. Then they’ll waltz into their draft room (or check in online), crib sheets in hand, and proceed to draft with a combination of outdated information and specific biases based on the season before or preconceived notions concerning a specific player.

And then they’ll conclude their draft with a decent-at-best team, and stumble their way through the season in hopes for a postseason berth. When it’s over they’ll wonder, what went wrong? Or they’ll get lucky, win the championship, and assume they’re geniuses.

Either way, bad result.

Instead, let’s approach the offseason a little bit differently. Yes, it takes a little time commitment, and no, it’s not a guarantee you’ll win your fantasy league. It takes more than a great draft to win a league, but a great draft can make things a heckuva lot easier.

Here’s your schedule:

March-April

Don’t worry about the draft until after it’s over. You can keep tabs, but don’t make it your focus. Know enough to talk intelligently about the subject or put together a mock for a friendly contest, but keep this in mind: the draft means nothing until it’s over.

Instead, spend these months keeping up with team rosters, and review 2008 while it’s still very fresh in your mind. Look at the rosters of every team and put together a rough top 20 sheet for each position (and a top 40 for wide receivers). Base it mostly on your gut feelings and how 2008 transpired. It won’t be accurate (yet), but it’s going to allow you to focus your attention those players.

The list itself will take you, give or take, 2 hours to put together. Just write down the players’ first and last names and their teams. That’s it. One more detail: while your putting the list together, only put 2-4 players on each page, evenly spaced. You’re going to be taking notes on each of these players and you’ll be filling up the white space.

The rest of your time during these two months will be spent assembling those notes. Start with the basics: take a look at player pages on NFL.com and write down some things you find interesting. (Examples: the player hasn’t played 16 games the past three seasons; he’s thrown 20+ touchdowns the past two seasons; he’s carried the ball 300+ times each of the past three seasons; 2008 was the first time he caught more than 40 receptions; etc.) Then go to Sports Data Hub’s tool set and play around with things, again writing down some notes. (Examples: the player only scored touchdowns in 5 weeks of the season; he handled more carries during the second half than the first half; etc.) Anything you find interesting or think may be fantasy football worthy, write it down. No detail is really too small. Anything you want to remember about the player, put it on the paper.

How long will this process take? Think 10-20 minutes per player. Just focus on doing 2 or 3 players each day and you’ll easily knock out all 100 players (20 QBs, 20 RBs, 40 WRs, 20 TEs) during the course of the two months without putting in any time on the weekend.

Final note: don’t adjust your rankings yet. You’ll be doing that in the near future.

May

You’ll know more about every roster in May. The draft will be complete and most of the offseason moves will be wrapped up. Spend May considering which rookies will start at running back, wide receiver, and quarterback, in that order. The biggest impact rookies will be at running back and you’ll be able to count how many on one hand. Most other positions won’t matter to your draft, save maybe one or two wide receivers.

Now spend time in May looking at individual teams. Just write down the expected starters’ names on a sheet, and jot down any notes you had from the individual player player pages (the ones you made before). Finally, add any additional notes you think are relevant. You’re going to be looking at the offensive line at this point and considering how much it’s changed. Also consider coaching changes: try making use of the SDH tools to consider how the coaches balanced running/passing the ball in the past. Ask critical thinking questions: why did the coach run/pass this often in the past? Will that rookie offensive tackle make a big impact? Will the running game see a boost with the rookie? Will the passing game function better with that controversial free agent wide receiver? Why or why not?

June

Okay, now the offseason is winding down. Preseason is just a little more than a month away, so it’s time to put together your second draft of rankings, expanding it and refining the rankings. Look through your notes, consider changes in the offseason, and put together a top 30 for quarterbacks and running backs; a new top 20 for tight ends; and a top 60 for wide receiver. This time put 6-8 players on each page and include some crucial notes you don’t want to forget.

Beyond that, it’s also a good idea to start ranking team defenses. After spending May looking at offenses, spend June examining at team defenses. Which defense was the best in 2008? Which bolstered its roster in free agency? Which drafted the play makers? Which has the best schedule? Which will force a lot of turnovers? Keep asking these types of questions until you have a pretty good list of 15-20 defenses.

July

Ready? Preseason is next month and your fantasy draft is right around the corner. At this point you should have a rough draft with 140 players and 15-20 defenses on it. This is the month you will finalize all projections for the players. It only takes 5-10 minutes per player, so you can easily knock out 5-10 players per day without ruining your schedule. Lastly, you’re going to refine the list one last time - no expansion necessary - and separate the players by tiers. You can do this in one of two ways.

One, just separate players of similar value, in terms of your projections. This is what a lot of players/magazines will do, and it’s a decent approach. All things considered, it’s relatively better than simply not separating by tiers.

But the better method - and this one will make good use of all your notes and research - factors in risk/reward. Basically, your top tier is high scorers from last season who are almost guaranteed to repeat. Tier two consists of last season’s high scorers who will probably repeat, but there is reason for doubt. Even so, these guys will turn in a solid season, even if things go a bit awry. The third tier includes last season’s solid players with good upside.  And the fourth tier is players of high risk/reward.

Also, it’s suggested you purchase a fantasy football guide or print an alternative rankings sheet to get a feel for how others view the same players. It’s not necessary to madly change your rankings because another person has a different opinion than you, but it’s a good idea to consider why the other person’s feelings conflict with your own. Plus, you’ll see where your buddies will probably draft certain players, so you don’t draft someone on your list too soon (or too late). It’s also nice to have a bigger list of player names prior to your draft, since more than 160 picks are drafted in a 12 team league.

August

August is a breeze. Spend your weekends catching a game or two while keeping up with all the player injuries and position battles, tweaking your rankings as things progress. When your draft does arrive, show up with the self-assurance that accompanies an offseason of research and prepare to draft confidently.

Conclusion

Self-directed fantasy football research isn’t as time-consuming as most might assume. In fact, as this basic schedule shows, it can be done by investing an hour or less each day during the week.

This offseason schedule kicks off on Sunday. Are you ready to prepare for fantasy football?

Good luck!

Here’s a new way to approach fantasy football projections: rather than consider only changes made on offense or to the coaching staff, look at the players’ teammates on defense - you’ll be a better fantasy player because of it.

But why look at the defense? After all, defense doesn’t really influence offense, does it? Well, that’s not really true. Knowing whether a team has a good or poor defense makes projecting its run-pass ratio a heckuva lot easier. And as any seasoned fantasy player will tell you, opportunity creates breakout statistical seasons.

What do I mean by this? To begin, let’s pretend you know a team will have a top ten defense. They made a lot of big offseason acquisitions and hired a proven defensive coordinator. During the season, they tend to hold opponents to under 20 points per game. Teams like this tend to run more often than they pass because they are playing to control the football and grind clock. They don’t need to pass as often as a team with a bad defense because they don’t need to score as many points.

This is how 95% of NFL coaches approach their offenses: if they can run the ball - a low-risk style of play - they will run the ball. The chances of a turnover are minimized and it’s more likely to gain yardage - even if it’s a minimal amount - than a pass play, with has, on average, a 60-65% chance of gaining yards. This is why most teams run on first down: if they attempt a pass and it’s incomplete, they’re faced with 2nd and 10; but if they run the ball and pick up 4 yards to make it 2nd and 6, their second down options open up.

Consider the Tennessee Titans during the regular season. Could they have passed the ball more frequently? Sure. Why didn’t they? Because the running game was successful and they didn’t need to score a lot of points. They had a mediocre scoring offense (ranked 14th), but a great defense (ranked 2nd).

At the opposite end of the spectrum, consider the New Orleans Saints. They had a bad defense this season which gave up a lot of points (nearly 25 per game), so to keep up and outscore opponents, the Saints needed a lot of points in a hurry. To score as often as they did (more than any other team in the NFL, actually), they passed the ball more than 60 percent of the time.

If you drafted either Chris Johnson or Drew Brees this season, you were probably happy. Those players were put in a position to score a lot of fantasy points because the situation usually demanded their involvement. The Titans could have passed the ball more often, but they might have ended up with more interceptions. The Saints could have tried sticking with a running game, but it would have eaten too much clock and the odds of moving straight down the field would have been diminished.

Next season, when you’re projecting player performance, consider how many opportunities they’ll be given. Consider their defenses.

If you’ve been in the same league for a few years and are looking for a way to keep things interesting, take a look at the following six tricks and try incorporating one or two next season. Each is guaranteed to add a new dimension or level of competition to your league, and that’s never a bad thing.

1. Turn it into a keeper league.

Keeper leagues are great for leagues with members who will always be available to draft, year in and out. There are a lot of keeper variations, so it’s best to take a vote to decide which kind will fit your league best. If you aren’t certain how much longer the league will last, stick with one year keepers. If you think your league will always be around, try integrating one “all-time” keeper, so someone can decide after this season to never let go of Adrian Peterson (unless he eventually releases him.)

2. Try an auction draft. 

Snake-style drafts are fine, but if your league is growing a bit stale try spice it up by giving everyone a $100 (monopoly money or the real deal) pre-draft salary cap. This is a great way to give your entire league the opportunity to sign Adrian Peterson or Peyton Manning, assuming, of course, they are willing to spend 30-40 percent of their salary cap. It integrates a completely different strategy and everyone will approach the draft with a different plan.

3. Have a separate rookie draft.

No one is really certain when to draft rookies, so I had a keeper league one year that drafted rookies after the completion of the standard, rookie-free draft. It lasted three rounds and gave everyone the opportunity to pick up some of the young talent, without sacrificing a high draft pick on an uncertain player. We added one caveat: no owner could start a rookie unless he released one of his other draft picks (in other words, there were always 14 players on the roster).

4. Make it worth your while.

If your league isn’t already doing this, make it interesting by putting some money on the line. For a 12 team league, for example, have every member throw in $20. At the end of the season, the champion can take home $100 while second place doubles his investment with $40. The exact amounts and distribution is up to you, but I guarantee more members will take the league seriously if more than pride is at stake.

5. Start some friendly prop bets.

I know of one league in which each member threw some money in a pot, and the first team with a player arrest was awarded the shebang. Someone won every single year. Fun side bets like this keep the season interesting and give every owner, even the one whose season was over by week five, the opportunity to take home some cash.

6. Add a New Scoring Rule (PPR)

Do not do this if you’re in a keeper league (unless you get a unanimous vote in favor of it) and be sure to keep it simple. If you can’t figure out your team’s approximate score by simply looking at the box score after the game, your league is too difficult. An excellent scoring addition, however, is points per reception. It makes the draft a lot more interesting (is Adrian Peterson, who rarely contributes in the passing game still more valuable than Brian Westbrook?), and evens the overall scoring between positions. Wide receivers and tight ends, for example, suddenly leap in value and someone like Wes Welker will be drafted much higher.

I wrote a post earlier today on getting started in fantasy football analysis, but if you want a quick tip that won’t take more than 3 minutes, try this one.

Consistency is the most underrated factor in fantasy football, but it can be tough to gauge how consistent a fantasy player really is until you incorporate something called “benchmarks.” Basically, you want to get a feel for how often a player exceeds the average for his position. You want, on your roster, players who are above average a lot during the course of the regular season. Makes sense, right?

To simplify the process, set up some benchmaks for each position. Here are the numbers I use:

Quarterbacks: 175 passing yards and 2 touchdowns (15 points in standard league scoring, with 1 point per 25 passing yards and 4 points per passing touchdown)

Running Backs: 100 yards or 40 yards and a touchdown (10 points in standard league scoring)

Wide Receivers: 90 yards or 30 yards and a touchdown (9 points in standard league scoring)

Tight Ends: 60 yards or a touchdown (6 points in standard league scoring)

Kickers: 8 points

Defenses: 10 points

Now, you may want to vary the numbers based on your specific league and its scoring rules, but that’s how I do it for most of my leagues. Once you have your benchmarks in place, head over to your statistics site of choice (I love Sports Data Hub because the trends tool makes it super-easy to imagine a line stretching across the graph and get a quick idea of which weeks the player came through).

Find the players who exceeded those bench marks often. Those who doubled the bench marks or exceeded them by a great deal on a weekly basis should be your upper-tier players. Others who simply met the bench marks on a regular basis will be solid players during the season.

This is also great during the season when debating whether a player should be started or kept on the bench. Take a look at how the opposing defense - how often does it allow opponents to meet those benchmarks?

It won’t take more than three minutes per player or defense to get these numbers, and you’ll have a better, more consistent team because of it. Remember, if your entire roster (in a standard league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF) meets its bench marks during a given week, you’ll score 84 points. Chances are, you’ll have a couple elite playes who blow up their bench marks and get you an extra 10-15 points, making 100 points per week very possible.

In any event, it’s a great way to separate two players who had similar overall seasons, but were very different on a week-to-week basis.

Good luck!

Okay, so you’ve been playing fantasy football for a few years and you’re really getting into it. You consistently make the fantasy postseason and think you have a pretty good handle on the game, but you haven’t won your league championship and you’d like to step it up. Original research is a pretty good place to start.

Of course, getting started in making your own projections and analysis can be a bit daunting. It also can seem pointless, since dozens of fantasy football magazines and blogs have already crunched the numbers and spent the year looking at players and teams with a magnifying glass. And they get paid to do this. You, on the other hand, will be spending your limited free hours looking at the same numbers, which makes you wonder, is it even worth it?

In a word, yes. There is no substitute for original research and analysis. When you read or listen to what an “expert” says, you’re only getting one side of a story, the side they believe is correct. Now, they might be, but experts certainly aren’t perfect and they will get things wrong not infrequently. And remember, their analysis is often confined to a paragraph, most of which is spent reciting numbers from the last three seasons. They spent more time looking at things than they have room to print, so they write arguments to support their opinions and may leave out part of the story.

So how do you get started in fantasy football analysis? In all actuality, it’s not too complicated. It basically boils down to spending a little time each day looking at numbers and drawing some conclusions. Fantasy football is not rocket science - it’s just a matter of approaching things correctly. Here’s how to accomplish that:

When you start out, just play around. You don’t even need a real purpose yet. All you really need to do at this point is get acclimated with some different web sites and pick the ones you find most convenient. (I use NFL.com, Pro Football Reference, and Sports Data Hub, myself.) If you love looking at numbers, then head over to Pro Football Reference. If you’re more of a visual thinking, take a quick spin on Sports Data Hub’s free tool and look at the graphs. And when I say play around, that’s all I mean. Sort columns, look at random players, and see what you missed from the season before. Chances are you didn’t realize certain players performed as well as they did. Some surprises will jump off the page. Scribble those names down.

When you have a handful of players you found surprising, jot down some reasons why they did so well. It’s one thing to find players who surprised, but to understand whether they can consistently do well, you’ll need to find an explanation. A few reasons a player might suddenly see a spike up or down in his numbers: a new team, injuries, a “soft” schedule, an improved offensive line (check out the number of times a quarterback was sacked, for example), free agency, the draft, new coach, or a new assistant coach.

After you find the reason a player did well, ask yourself, “Will he do just as well or just as bad this season?” Ask yourself the following questions: Is the reason he did well still around, or did that new offensive lineman retire? Is the injured quarterback back in the lineup this season, so the wide receiver can expect his numbers to spike? Did something else change this season? Was that defensive-minded head coach fired and replaced by an offensive minded head coach, or vice versa? What’s the new coach’s mindset - does he believe in hard-hitting, games are won in the trenches football? Or does he spread defenses with a finesse passing game? Is the new quarterback a pocket passer, or is he a scrambler? Did the offense sign a new running back to split carries with last season’s starter? These are just some examples and there are plenty of other analytical questions you can probably come up with on your own.

Okay, so now you have a handful of players who did well last season and an explanation. Whether the reasoning is correct or not is a bit arbitrary at this point. Even if you don’t get it right, you will eventually. The point of this exercise is simply to test your football knowledge and get you think outside the box.

How much time should you spend with this exercise? Try doing one or two players each day for a couple weeks. Or you could try spending one day looking at a specific team and noting players on that team who exceeded expectations. Choose the most effective way that suits you best. It shouldn’t take more than 20-30 minutes per day, and you’ll feel your knowledge expanding as you get a great personal feel for individual players and teams, which will be great when you’re drafting in the middle or late rounds on draft day.

After you’ve done all this, buy a fantasy magazine and check how your thoughts and those of the experts compare. Why does he think the player will again put up good numbers? Did he catch something you missed? If he supports one argument and you support another, don’t automatically change your opinion to conform. Realize he might not be right. It’s hard to describe the satisfaction you’ll get from being right when someone else is wrong. And if a few weeks into the season you realize you were wrong, oh well. Remember, this is a learning experience, so figure out the reason the player didn’t live up to your expectations or vastly exceeded them.

Fantasy football research is a lot of fun, and it’s very rewarding. It takes time, but it’s a lot easier than you really think. And who knows? Do it enough and maybe you’ll be the next Talented Mr. Roto!

Good luck!

Every year I feel that I killed everyone in my fantasy draft(s) and clearly have the best team. Rightfully so, since I look under every rock in my draft preparation. But, every year, I seem to have pie on my face when my players stink it up in week 1. You think I would learn my lesson and be more pessimistic and be less proud until the players hit the field, but I can’t help myself with the pent up football energy from the long off-season. I think this is why the curse has stayed with me. My only solace is that my players consistently let me down early, but then kick it into gear the rest of the year.

I’ve tried many strategies over the years to break this curse, but nothing seems to work for me….oddly enough these strategies work great for my friends to get off to a great start. So here are a few things you might look to try.

1. Draft players with the later bye weeks - The thinking here is that early bye weeks really give players an excuse to play less hard. They see that week off just beyond their reach and really don’t put it into gear until after the early bye week. This is like a kid going to the first week of school in Sept and the teacher telling them that their first week off is in 4 weeks…..you’re going to have a hard time wrangling those little guys.
2. Pick players from teams that finished the previous season strong - This seems to make more sense for good but not great teams that have little turnover from the previous season. But as we’ve seen the Superbowl champs, the top performers, always seem to have a let down. I think they expect that since it was easy last season, it will be easy again. Once they get the shock of under-performing they step it up, but it can lead to a slow start…the very thing we want to avoid!
3. Stick with veterans - These guys have done it before and know the ropes. Rookies on the other hand are adjusting to so many new things, new teamates, new coach, new agent, money, and adoring fans. The vets have all that handled already and may have a family to feed and support. They also know how quickly it can all disappear, so they are motivated.
4. Avoid players on rebuilding teams - This is an obvious one. There is not as much chemistry or coordination from a newly built team, even veterans. This takes time to evolve, so don’t rely early on anyone from rebuilding teams.
5. Easy Strength of Schedule early - Find players on teams that have ‘easy’ matchups early based on SOS. Easy last year does not always translate to easy this year, but most bad teams are subject to rule #4, that you can use to your advantage.

I hope this helps you get off to a quick start and crushes your fellow owners dreams of a league title. As for me, I’m going to prepare myself for a horrid start and try to keep telling myself that it will all be over soon and I can get on to dominating and taking it to the house.

The general rule of drafting in fantasy football is this: quarterbacks are not taken in the top three. And the idea of drafting a quarterback number one? Foolhardy. After all, the common wisdom goes, running backs are the highest scorers.

Here’s the thing: that’s not always true. Last season, in most standard leagues in which all touchdowns are awarded 6 points, four of the top five fantasy scorers were not running backs. Three were quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Peyton Manning) and another was a wide receiver (Randy Moss). Now, I think most will agree that last season was an especially prolific one for all quarterbacks (and a bit of a down year for running backs), but let’s look ahead to this season with a couple generic predictions.

Here’s the scenario: first you have a running back. He nets 2,200 yard yards from scrimmage and scores 20 touchdowns to lead the NFL in both categories; has a heckuva season. Next you have a quarterback, who throws for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He even rushes for 100 yards. Again, leads the NFL in both passing categories; nice numbers. (I think you’ll agree that those are pretty modest projections for league leaders; the quarterback might throw for 4,500 yards or 35 touchdowns and the running back might score a little more, but those are still pretty generic for any given season.)

You’re in a basic league: 10-10-25 for yardage scoring, 6 points per touchdown, no interception/fumble penalties; no PPR. Who had the better season?

The running back scored 220 points from his yardage and another 120 points, thanks to the 20 touchdowns he scored. Grand total: 340 points. The quarterback, meanwhile, scored 160 points for passing the ball like he did and 180 from his 30 touchdown passes. Those 100 rushing yards, though seemingly pretty insignificant, still netted him another 10 points. Grand total: 350 points.

Wait. The quarterback scored more than the running back? Interestingly enough, yes he did. Against all laws of fantasy football, a generic quarterback scored more than a generic running back.

Now the question is, should you have drafted the quarterback? What I love about fantasy football is that sometimes it’s just a little more complex than it seems.

Let’s say you drafted that quarterback first overall in a 12 team league. That means you waited until another 22 picks cleared the board before you got even a chance at your RB1 and RB2. As a generous prediction, I’ll guess that eight wide receivers and another two quarterback were taken in rounds one and two, meaning 12 running backs were drafted. Assuming your draft goes by the book, you should wind up with what most consider a very low end RB1 or a high end RB2; two, if you choose to wait until another 22 picks are off the board before you take your first wide receiver.

Let’s say another ten wide receivers were drafted in rounds 3 and 4 and five more quarterbacks, so seven more running backs are gone. If you drafted two running backs earlier, you’re now going to be picking the 19th best wide receiver (a mid-range WR2) as your WR1. If you drafted a running back and wide receiver earlier, you can pick the 21st best running back as your RB2 and the 20th ranked wide receiver as your WR2.

For those a little confused, here’s your potential roster through round five with pre-draft rankings in parentheses, if you drafted RB-RB in rounds 2-3: QB (1), RB1 (13), RB2 (14), WR1 (19), WR2 (20). Here’s your roster if you drafted RB-WR in rounds 2-3: QB (1), RB1 (13), RB2 (21), WR1 (20), WR2 (21).

Let’s break it down: I said that eight quarterbacks have been drafted to this point. Now, all eight of those quarterbacks are projected to be QB1s. I also said that at least 20 wide receivers have been drafted (deep into projected WR2s) and 20 running backs were drafted (deep into projected RB2s). So what do you think: are you better off with a roster equipped with the eighth ranked quarterback and, say, the top ranked running back (someone you know you can start ever week) as your RB1, the 12th ranked running back as your RB2, the 9th ranked receiver as your WR1, and the 20th ranked receiver as your WR2?

I’m going to say yes. So to answer this post’s title question, my line of thinking is that it’s going to be very difficult to pull off a good draft if you pick a quarterback number one. Maybe you’ll get lucky, but I think one is better off going with a running back in the first round (especially first overall) because the time between picks is brutal (assuming you’re in a 12-team league).

Lesson learned: you must to draft your fantasy roster while thinking about more than the pick at hand; think several rounds deep. Draft strategy comes down to more than straight up projections and top 100-lists. Try joining some mock drafts and look at what happens to your roster if you pick a quarterback first overall, second overall, third overall. The results may surprise you.

Side note: sorry if I confused anyone (I confused myself at a couple points in putting this together).

The NFL offseason is more publicized now than it has ever been in years past, which has led to more analysis from experts, as well as amateur writers with an opinion. Thanks to the increased awareness of offseason moves, it’s easier now than ever to conduct your own analysis and form educated opinions.

This is a generic list of things (no player names, except perhaps examples) to look for during the offseason that will affect the upcoming fantasy football year. Consider this a guide to forming your own opinions, though I cannot stress enough that it is essential that you have a real feel for the sport that can only come from being a fan for many seasons. And always consider others’ opinions, even if they disagree with your own. Consider their arguments carefully and figure that into your own equation. Flipping a situation and playing “devil’s advocate” is never a bad idea because it forces you to consider the situation from all angles.

Free Agent Movement- This is a big one because it can make an immediate impact on a football team, and one that can be accurately predicted. Unlike the draft, it’s possible to look at how certain players have impacted former NFL teams by looking back at their histories with those teams. These players have in-game experience and have proved that they have what it takes to succeed on the professional level.

From a fantasy football standpoint, it’s particularly important to look at acquisitions at these positions.

• Offensive Line - This is often overlooked because most casual fans have precious little knowledge of offensive linemen. The cool thing about the Internet, however, is that you can do a quick Google search for a player and someone out there has an opinion. Looking at the player’s career with a former team is also a great way to learn a few things: how many sacks did that team allow? How many yards per carry did running backs average? Was he a part of the problem or was the offensive line weak on the opposite side? Also, most magazines rate players with a grade or some other scale. Read the experts’ analysis and figure that into the equation, too.
• Wide Receiver - Not only does the acquisition of a wide receiver affect the passing game for the quarterback, it also affects other wide receivers. A veteran presence on the team may mean that defenses place less attention on a star wide receiver (consider Carolina this season, after the team signed Muhsin Muhammad). Of course it does also affect the quarterback by giving him more options, and that in turn may affect the running game (consider Minnesota signing Bernard Berrian).
• Running Back - This is where someone can show up and instantly become a starter (Michael Turner in Atlanta; Julius Jones in Seattle) or become a specific downs player, such as a goal line back or 3rd down back. Consider this carefully because a goal line back may be a touchdown vulture (Najeh Davenport stole a bunch of touchdowns from Willie Parker during his stay).
• Quarterback - Obviously there are times when someone will wind up and instantly become a starter for a franchise (Chad Pennington in Miami), but a veteran might also be brought to a team to spark a young quarterback and provide some competition. Though he may never play, the team’s starter will probably be better because of the competition.

The best place to look to see if someone is going to start: RotoWorld.com’s depth chart pages. It will show you who the favorite is at positions (including 3rd down back and goal line back) and is an invaluable resource, as it is frequently updated with important players news and notes.

Of course, it’s also important to look at free agent losses. If a starting left tackle leaves a team and is replaced by a lesser player, the team’s running back might struggle. Also, the quarterback might face more pressure and have troubles of his own. It also hurts for a team to lose one of its best wide receivers (Chicago losing Berrian), and if the passing game struggles, the running game will be of more importance than in the past. There are truly a lot of variables to consider, but it gets easier as you go along.

The NFL Draft - The NFL Draft will impact the fantasy football season to a lesser degree than free agency, but it’s still important to pay attention to what happens.

• Rookie Quarterbacks - Young quarterbacks are historically more comfortable throwing to the slot and tight end positions and less comfortable throwing outside to the starting wide receivers. Rookie quarterbacks who start will also impact the offense in other ways. For one, wide receivers will likely not produce like they would with a veteran and the team’s running game will be more utilized.
• Rookie Running Backs - This is typically a transition that is not met with a lot of difficulty if the running back is pro caliber. In fact, running backs are probably the only rookies who will produce immediately if they get enough touches.
• Rookie Wide Receivers - Wide receivers will only put up numbers if they get receptions and quarterbacks typically love to throw to players they are most comfortable with, meaning rookies usually don’t get a lot of passes thrown their way.
• Rookie Offensive Linemen - It’s tough to predict how much success a rookie offensive lineman will have, but one thing is usually universal: rookie offensive linemen get better as the season goes on and they adjust to the improved speed of opponents.

Coaching Changes - This is very important and seems like a lot of research until you consider that only about 5-10 coaching changes will occur during any given season. The most important thing here is to look at whether the new man in charge is an offensive-minded coach or a defensive-minded guy. Offensive-minded coaches will typically pass more than run - and usually like a West Coast style of offense that makes use of a very accurate passer (Jeff Garcia in Tampa Bay) - while defensive-minded coaches will run more often (Lovie Smith in Chicago). Of course, a lot also depends on the talent at important positions (especially quarterback) and this is just a general rule of thumb.

It also helps to look at the coach’s assistants. Defensive coaches will usually almost completely hand over the offensive duties to their offensive coordinators, so it helps if you do a little research. The best way: look at past teams for all the coaches and consider run-pass ratios (pass attempts + quarterback rush attempts + sacks : rush attempts at other positions). It takes a little time, but, again, you’re only dealing with 10-20 coaches (head coaches and offensive coordinators).

Also, most teams usually stick with a similar approach to offense each season. (For example, the Bears and Steelers will almost invariably field a run-first team.)

Overview - When you begin looking over all this data and information, it might seem a little daunting, but it’s really not. I’m guessing you’re already a pretty big NFL fan who appreciates numbers - why else would you be on a fantasy football website that encourages self-directed research? - so you probably follow the NFL during the offseason. You read about it, watch NFL Live, etc. In other words, you probably know which big names changed places and who was drafted by your favorite team and which big-name rookies are projected to start. The rest is digging a little deeper and analyzing those moves.

The good news: it’s a little work, but it’s more than worth it. I guarantee it will make you a better fantasy football owner, even if your projections are wrong because it’s more trial and error than anything else. Self-directed research will make you a more knowledgeable fan and will give you a better overall feel for the game, so you’ll be even better at this next season.

Good luck!