We continue to shed light on breakout players for the upcoming fantasy season by heading south - well, sort of. Indianapolis doesn’t exactly qualify as a southern outpost, but the powers that be saw fit to put them in this division anyway. And it’s a division they’ve dominated while putting up offensive numbers that fantasy owners covet. That said, let’s take a gander at some potential breakout players.

Houston Texans - Matt Schaub: Schaub, a former third-round pi ck of the Falcons out of Virginia, has never played a full 16-game schedule as the Texans’ starting quarterback. That’s at least one of the reasons why he has yet to truly excel. But he has no lingering health issues this season, and has as good a chance as any to finally play 16 games. And if he does, the potential for big numbers is there. Schaub has cultivated his game in each of his two seasons as Houston’s signal-caller, seeing improvement in nearly every category last season from where he was in 2007. With a profusion of talented offensive weapons at his disposal, like running back Steve Slaton and wideout Andre Johnson, expect Schaub’s numbers to keep expanding in 2009.

Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Gonzalez: If you had to wager your livelihood on one player to break out this season, the smartest money would be on Gonzalez. Though he improved last season from where he was as a rookie, he fell off a bit at the end of the year, which you can see in the graph to the right. That shouldn’t be the case this season as he takes over a starting job at wideout that Marvin Harrison been entrenched in for years. With that come all the benefits of playing with Peyton Manning in Indy’s offense, which is very, very good for Gonzalez’s fantasy owners.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Mike Walker: The Jaguars have had as much luck with their receivers over the years as Chevy Chase has had while trying to come back from obscurity. Very little. With draft and free-agent busts like Reggie Williams, Matt Jones and Jerry Porter having been jettisoned, the Jags signed Torry Holt as a free agent and drafted three rookies at the position. But one promising holdover remains in Walker. At six-foot-two and over 200 lbs, Walker possesses the type of size that is difficult for cornerbacks to match up with. And he’s had slivers of success. Though he caught just 16 passes last season, against the Steelers in Week 6 he had six receptions for 107 yards. That game was preceded by one in which he hauled in five passes. Unfortunately, Walker failed to accumulate more than two catches in any game the rest of the season. But with most of last year’s receiving corps having been booted, it says something that Walker is still around.

Tennessee Titans - Bo Scaife: Scaife had a decent amount of success last season, with 58 receptions for 561 yards and two touchdowns, but that type of production doesn’t make fantasy owners covet him. He’s capable of more, and could get it this season. Each year of his career, Scaife has improved. His receiving yards have risen incrementally each year, and over the last three years, so have his reception total. The most important thing Scaife can do now is find the end zone more often. His career-high for a season is only two, and that’s not quite good enough to make an impact in fantasy leagues. But after a year of playing with Kerry Collins, the two should be more comfortable with each other, and as teams load up to stop the run, don’t be surprised if Tennessee employs the passing game with Scaife a bit more often inside the red zone.

As we did in our piece about rookie running backs, we’re going to spend some time looking at some players, in this case wide receivers, who were taken out side of the first round who could have a fantasy impact. Last season, there were no receivers taken in the draft’s opening round, yet players such as Donnie Avery and DeSean Jackson still contributed for fantasy owners. Let’s take a gander at who may do the same this season.

Brian Robiskie, Cleveland Browns (Second Round): The first receiver picked after the opening round, Robiskie has a golden opportunity to shine in Cleveland. As you can see in the graph to the right, Braylon Edwards led the Browns in receptions, but after that came Kellen Winslow, who is now with Tampa, and no other player even reached 30. Robiskie, an Ohio State product, is generally considered one of, if not the, most polished rookie receiver, so his learning curve could be small, and his chances to contribute out of the gate are solid.

Ramses Barden, New York Giants (Third Round): While it’s true Barden is raw and has a gaggle of other wideouts to compete with in New York, including first-round pick Hakeem Nicks, his value lies in what he may be able to do in the red zone. At a legit 6-foot-6, Barden towers over other cornerbacks, and is exactly the type of player who makes for a nightmare matchup near the goal-line. A simple fade pass to the corner will be next to impossible for most defensive backs to stop, and even if Barden does not reel in a significant amount of receptions, he should get his share of opportunities to put up six points.

Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts (Fourth Round): The Colts are undergoing a transformation at the receiver position, and Collie, a BYU product, will be a part of that. Though not the biggest or fastest of players, Collie does possess sticky hands, and has produced at a high level while in college. His 106 catches last season were third in the country, his 15 touchdowns were fourth, and the 1,538 receiving yards he amassed led all receivers. He’ll have an opportunity this season to be the third wideout for Peyton Manning, who we all know doesn’t discriminate - if you’re open, he’ll throw you the ball. Which is good news for Collie’s potential fantasy owners.

Jarrett Dillard, Jacksonville Jaguars (Fifth Round): Speaking of production, let me introduce you to Dillard, who manufactured more than his share of catches and yards while at Rice. For three straight years he amassed at least 1,000 receiving yards, and twice he scored at least 20 touchdowns. He had 60 touchdowns in his career, including 20 last season to lead the nation. With the lack of proven talent the Jags currently have deployed out wide, Dillard has a good opportunity to break through and make something happen during his rookie season.

The denouement of our examination of the fantasy value of each NFL division’s quarterbacks is upon us, and with it comes the AFC South, also known as Peyton’s Place. The Colts’ Peyton Manning has established his supremacy of this division – and all others, really – for the entire decade, and that trend will likely continue in 2009.

Houston Texans: If not for the aforementioned Manning, the best signal caller in the division would reside deep in the heart of Texas. That may sound strange when you consider that Houston’s Matt Schaub has a career total of 30 touchdowns and 25 interceptions, and that he has yet to play a full 16-game schedule due to injuries, but the talent is there. Also there for Schaub are a deluge of skilled players for him to throw to, from wideouts Andre Johnson – who is arguably the best in the game at his position – and Kevin Walter to tight end Owen Daniels, and even to running back Steve Slaton, who caught 50 passes last season. Schaub has completed at least 66 percent of his throws in each of the past two (admittedly abbreviated) seasons, and his numbers in every other category have risen in that time. If one other number can surge – games played – he’ll be a prominent player for fantasy owners this season.

Indianapolis Colts: Every Sunday during football season, a halcyon feeling dwells inside fantasy owners who have Peyton Manning on their roster. Except during those forlorn days when the Colts have a bye, there is no tinkering to be done. All owners can rest assured he’ll be in the lineup ready to disperse the ball to anyone that’s open. This is what he’s done in every single game Indianapolis has played since 1998. He’s never missed a single contest, and he’s never thrown for fewer than 3,700 yards in a season. In fact, he’s only gone under 4,000 passing yards twice. Want to talk touchdowns? Fine. The man has never thrown for fewer than 26 in a season. He performs with more regularity than Benefiber. Even though the Colts will have a new offensive coordinator this year, expect more of the same from Manning, and draft him as such.

Jacksonville Jaguars: One of the bigger disappointments for fantasy owners last year was the play of Jacksonville’s David Garrard. After a promising 2007 that saw him throw for 18 scores and just three interceptions in 12 games, Garrard tumbled and managed only 15 touchdowns with 13 interceptions over a full 16 game schedule in 2008. So what do fantasy owners make of him this year? It’s hard to tell considering his unproven track record. One thing that should help the 31-year-old was the franchise’s expulsion of its overrated receiving corps. Gone are Matt Jones, Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams, and in are veteran Torry Holt (as a free agent) and draftees like Mike Thomas and Jarrett Dillard, who were selected in the fourth and fifth rounds, respectively. It should also be noted that the Jags’ offensive line was decimated by so many injuries last season, they may as well have been on the battlefield with William Wallace in Braveheart. However, with the return to health of some, and with the acquisitions of free-agent Tra Thomas and first- and second-round picks Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, the situation should be remedied. Despite all those moves, one truth remains – Garrard simply has to perform better than he did last year. He cannot be trusted as a QB1 for fantasy owners, but few will have qualms about selecting him as a solid QB2.

Tennessee Titans: Kerry Collins is a dependable player who gives Tennessee just what they need at the quarterback position – a veteran to manage the game and connect on enough passes to keep opposing defenses honest. The Titans’ offense is based on a running attack featuring Chris Henry and LenDale White, and all Collins needs to do is avoid the type of mistakes that will wind up hurting the team. Nice formula for the Titans to come out victorious, bad formula for fantasy owners. Collins completed less than 60 percent of his throws last year while tossing 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He passed for more than 250 yards one time, while throwing for less than 150 yards five times, and there were eight games in which he did not throw for a touchdown. Maybe if you get blindsided with injuries during the year he’ll be a decent one-week matchup option off the waiver wire, but other than that, it’s best for fantasy owners to look somewhere else for their quarterback.

By now, fantasy owners are all aware that high draft picks like Chris Wells and Michael Crabtree will have an impact on their leagues in the 2009 season. But what about some of the lesser-known players, guys that were drafted in later rounds that could also have an impact? Let’s take a look at some players selected in the fourth round on that fantasy owners should at least keep in mind.

- Shawn Nelson, TE, Buffalo Bills: Drafted with the 21^st pick in the fourth round, the Bills got themselves an athletic tight end with the ability to stretch the field. The former Southern Mississippi player could become a valuable target for quarterback Trent Edwards, though he may struggle to see the field early because he needs to improve on his blocking. Of course, there’s also one Terrell Owens to worry about, as he’ll undoubtedly demand the ball, and Buffalo also has an adept second wideout in Lee Evans. That said, Nelson is a talented pass-catcher with no one standing in his way on the Buffalo depth chart, which makes him a sleeper for fantasy owners.

- Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Selected just after Nelson with the 27^th pick in the fourth round, Collie finds himself in a great situation with Indianapolis. The former BYU wideout did nothing but produce during his college career, and he has a real opportunity to earn playing time behind Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez. Collie isn’t the speediest player, but he has good hands and will catch everything thrown his way. There’s enough offense to go around in Indy that Collie may see his share receptions on the other end of Peyton Manning’s passes.

- Cornelius Ingram, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles’ fifth-round pick, Ingram is now with a team that has a plethora of other pass-catching options, but not at the tight end position, as they let L.J. Smith go. Brent Celek will likely be the No. 1 tight end, and Matt Schobel is there, but he shouldn’t stand in the more talented Ingram’s way.

- James Davis, RB, Cleveland Browns: A sixth-round pick of the Browns, Davis could not have found himself in a better situation. Though there are a multitude of backs on Cleveland’s roster at the moment, none are so talented that they will push Davis aside. With a strong training camp, it’s possible Davis could start the year as a backup, and after that, who knows what could happen. The Browns will take offense anywhere they can get it, and Davis may be that source as the year progresses.

With 64 catches, 796 receiving yards, and three touchdowns, Torry Holt had his worst year statistically in 2008, but the soon-to-be 33-year-old doesn’t think age has a whole lot to do with it. Instead, he places a lot of the blame on his down year on his former football team. Among other things, Holt told the AP the Rams were “not that good offensively,” “dysfunctional,” and that “there was no chemistry.”

Regardless of the reasons for his drop-off last season, one thing seems to be clear for 2009: even if the Jags wind up with Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin in the draft, Holt will be the team’s No. 1 receiving option. He joins a rag-tag bunch of wideouts that includes Dennis Northcutt, Mike Walker, and uber-bust Troy Williamson. So will Holt’s numbers ramp up to the Pro Bowl levels he and his fantasy owners have grown accustomed to?

The answer is probably not. David Garrard will once again be the one under center in Jacksonville, and though he’s solid, he’s not the type of quarterback that makes his receivers better. The same holds true for the Jags’ offense, which centers around the running game, and specifically Maurice Jones-Drew now that Fred Taylor has moved on to New England.

Jacksonville’s history is not one ripe with offensive passing numbers. Since 2002, they have not been higher than 15th in passing yards per game in the NFL, and though they were in the top-10 in passing touchdowns once, in 2007, that seems to have been an aberration, as they have been 20th or worse in that category five times since 2002.

Despite that history, even the least productive passing teams in the league last year provided some quality fantasy receivers. Of the 10 teams that averaged the fewest passing yards per game in 2008, it can be argued that only Oakland and Seattle did not have a player that could be a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3.

And that’s likely where we’d put Holt for this season. It would be surprising if he didn’t improve on last year’s numbers, even if not by a wide margin. It’s reasonable to expect 70-80 catches, 900-1,000 yards and five touchdowns out of the future Hall of Famer, which makes him worth owning in the 2009 season.

The Lowdown

Two players - Joe Flacco and Steve Slaton - will continue making their cases for rookie of the year in this game, a crucial one for the Ravens, who hope to make a run to the postseason, and the Texans, who are trying to stay afloat in the AFC South. Baltimore’s solid defense has some cracks in it with the absence of Chris McAllister and the questionable statuses of Bart Scott and Samari Rolle, but Houston’s defense should offer some opportunities to Flacco and Co.

Love ‘em

Joe Flacco - BAL - QB - Flacco is looking better every week from every perspective. Last week he passed for 248 yards and threw 2 touchdown passes, extending his touchdown streak to three games. Houston’s pass defense is suspect, too, so things bode especially well for the rookie quarterback this week.

Andre Johnson - HOU - WR - Johnson had 41 receptions for 593 yards between weeks 5-8, before his streak of 9+ reception games was snapped at Cleveland. He did catch his third touchdown of the season in that game, however, and remains one of the league’s biggest threats at wide receiver.

Derrick Mason - BAL - WR - Mason had just 1 catch for 3 yards against the Raiders week 8, but has otherwise been solid for much of the season. He caught 9 passes for 136 yards and 1 touchdown last week in his fourth 6+ reception game of the season. Houston has struggled at time to stop the pass this season and Mason is labeled a “start” this week.

Hate ‘em

Steve Slaton - HOU - RB - Slaton has looked very good the last three weeks of the season, but there’s reason to suspect he stumbles against the Ravens, who have the NFL’s best run defense. Slaton’s yard per carry average has dipped below 4.0 in three of his past four starts and there’s a very good chance he doesn’t find the endzone Sunday.

Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee - BAL - RBs -McClain and McGahee have relatively comparable numbers - not that that’s a compliment - this season with a lot of inconsistency thrown into the mix. Both will have a hard time breaking 70 yards this week, though McClain is the best bet to score a touchdown. Still, I’d steer clear.

The Lowdown

The Lions are still gunning for that elusive first win of the season, while Jacksonville is trying to end its own losing streak of (currently) two games. The Jaguars have scored 30 points in just one game this season and less than 20 in four. Detroit, in perfectly opposite form, has allowed fewer than 20 once this season and more than 30 in four games. Seems like the perfect storm, right?

Love ‘em

David Garrard - JAC - QB - Last week snapped a four game touchdown streak for Garrard, but given how often he throws the football (at least 30 times per game most weeks this season), it only makes sense that he finds the endzone against the Lions. Plus, he’s a sure bet to pass for 200 yards.

Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC - RB - MJD has scored in 3 of his last 4 games and in 4 of his last 6 this season. And though he doesn’t have a lot of rushing yards going into this game, and thus much evidence to support thinking he will rush for 100 yards, let’s just take a good look at Detroit’s defense and ponder: who can’t run up, over, and around the Lions?

Calvin Johnson - DET - WR - Johnson is one of the league’s best fantasy wide receivers this season, and he’s been as good as gold the past four weeks. In that time he’s put together 18 receptions for 390 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. And there’s a good chance Daunte Culpepper will probably try shaking the rust off this week by lobbing some deep balls Johnson’s way.

Matt Jones - JAC - WR - If you’re not in a PPR league, you can probably continue scrolling down to the next set of names. But if you appreciate lots of catches - Jones has caught 7+ the past three weeks - you might want to take a second look at him.

Hate ‘em

Kevin Smith - DET - RB - Smith might have four rushing touchdowns this season and two in the last three weeks, but there should be some definite concern over his lack of yards. He hasn’t rushed for at least 70 yards yet this season, which means fantasy owners are looking at a single digit week if he can’t find the endzone, and even when he does find the endzone owners are looking at a max of 10 points.

Fred Taylor - JAC - RB - You probably didn’t need me to tell you that Taylor should ride the pine (assuming you for some reason have him on your roster), but just to be safe I’d like to point out that Taylor hasn’t rushed a touchdown this season or carried the ball more than 10 times since week three.

Summary

Indianapolis earned a much-needed win over the Patriots, 18-15, to improve to 4-4 and remain alive in its postseason hunt. New England lost its third game of the season and is now tied with New York and Buffalo for a share of the AFC East division lead. New England controlled the ball for much of the game (over 34 minutes, thanks to four drives that lasted at least 7:45), but two fourth quarter turnovers (on its only two possessions of the quarter) led to Indianapolis’ go-ahead field goal and the game’s conclusion.

When New England had the Ball

Matt Cassel completed 25-of-34 attempts for 204 yards and one interception. That interception proved to be the game’s biggest game-changer, as it occurred on 4th and 15 and gave Indianapolis the ball with 4:40 remaining. Manning drove the Colts down the field for the go-ahead field goal. This was the third game this season that Matt Cassel did not throw a touchdown pass.

Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis were both relatively effective running the ball, combining to carry the ball 25 times for 117 yards and 1 touchdown. Faulk rushed 10 times for 60 yards, while Green-Ellis picked up the only touchdown of the game for New England. Faulk also had 5 receptions for 38 yards.

Randy Moss led the Patriots with 6 receptions for 65 yards, while Wes Welker finished with 7 receptions for 37 yards. Welker has caught at least 6 passes in every game this season and has 56 receptions on the year. Moss has had at least 5 receptions in each of the last three weeks.

When Indianapolis had the Ball

Peyton Manning appeared much more Peyton Manning-ish than he had in recent weeks, completing 21-of-29 for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns. He now has over 2,000 passing yards this season and has thrown for at least 200 passing yards in every game this season. He has failed to throw a touchdown pass in just one game this season and has thrown at least 2 touchdowns in four of his past five starts.

Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes were relatively inneffective in the game, carrying 21 times for 47 yards. Neither had a carry greater than 5 yards and their combined yard per carry average was a paltry 2.2. Addai added 2 receptions for 10 yards, finishing the day with 42 yards from scrimmage on 17 touches.

Four Colts players had at least 4 receptions: Reggie Wayne (5), Dallas Clark (4), Anthony Gonzalez (4), and Marvin Harrison (4). All four also had at least 50 receiving yards, but Anthony Gonzalez was the only player who caught a Manning touchdown pass - he had 2.

Where the Teams Now Stand

New England is 5-3 and tied with the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets for a share of the AFC East division lead, one game ahead of the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots next game is at home against Buffalo.

Indianapolis is 4-4 and in second place in the AFC South, 4 games behind the undefeated Tennessee Titans. The Colts play at Pittsburgh next week.

Summary

The Bengals improved to 1-8 with an upset win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, who blew an opportunity to stay alive in the AFC. Jacksonville is now 3-5 and tied with Houston for third in the division. 12 penalties totaling 86 yards killed the Jaguars in this one, as did the absence of a running game.

When Jacksonville had the Ball

Jacksonville didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter and was trailing 21-3 at that point.

David Garrard completed 23-of-38 for 229 yards and 1 interception, the Jaguars only turnover in the game. Two of his streaks were killed in this game: his five consecutive game streak of at least one touchdown and the same length streak with no interceptions. He did, however, throw the ball more than 30 times for the fifth consecutive game this season. His third quarter interception on the first drive of the second half also resulted in a touchdown for Cincinnati.

Jacksonville’s running backs combined for 45 yards on 15 attempts. Maurice Jones-Drew led the team with 10 carries for 33 yards and 1 touchdown. He also had 2 receptions for 29 yards.

Matt Jones led the team with 7 receptions for 69 yards. No other player had at least 40 receiving yards.

When Cincinnati had the Ball

The Bengals were very successful running the ball in this game and Ryan Fitzpatrick had a relatively good showing, as well. The offense turned the ball over only once in the game, though a special teams fumble gave the Jaguars 7 points on a kickoff.

Fitzpatrick completed 21-of-31 for 162 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He completed only one pass for more than 20 yards, but his yards-per-attempt average exceeded 5.0 for the first time this season. He also ran the ball 3 times for 52 yards.

Cedric Benson led a successful rushing attack and carried 24 times for 104 yards and 1 touchdown. He had rushed for 101 yards on 27 carries in his previous two starts.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh led the team in receptions with 7 for 65 yards, but Chad Ocho Cinco caught Fitzpatrick’s 2 touchdown passes. He had 3 additional receptions and finished with 37 receiving yards.

Where the Teams Now Stand

Jacksonville is 3-5 and out of contention in the AFC South, though, with a lot of luck and a string of wins, there is some limited potential for a Wild Card berth. The Jaguars are scheduled to play at Detroit next week.

Cincinnati is 1-8 going into their week 10 bye. They are scheduled to play Philadelphia at home in two weeks.

Summary

Green Bay and Tennessee played a heated defensive game in which only two touchdowns were scored. The Packers defense fell apart at the end of the fourth quarter, however, and lost in overtime, 19-16. The Titans remain the only undefeated team in the NFL, now 8-8, and continue to build a lead in the AFC South, whereas the Packers are now tied with Minnesota in the NFC North with a 4-4 record.

When Green Bay had the Ball

Aaron Rodgers threw an interception and fumbled the ball on back-to-back drives in the third quarter. The fumble put Tennessee at Green Bay’s 17 yard line and resulted in a field goal, but the Titans didn’t capitalize on the interception, punting it back to Green Bay. Rodgers was able to move Green Bay across the 50 yard line on a number of drives and within scoring range, but the Packers, as they have in previous games this season, could not get touchdowns when they needed them.

Rodgers completed 22-of-41 for 314 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. It is his third 300-yard game of the season and his 5th consecutive game with at least one touchdown pass. He has five interceptions this season.

Ryan Grant did not struggle running the ball against Tennessee the entire game - he carried for at least 5 yards on 9 carries - but only 3 of his 20 carries resulted in a first down. He finished with 86 rushing yards.

Donald Driver had a lot of success in the second half as the Titans focused more attention on Greg Jennings. Driver finished with a great game: 7 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown. Four of his receptions moved the ball at least 19 yards and one was a 44 yard catch.

When Tennessee had the Ball

Green Bay was very effective at stopping Tennessee for much of the game and keeping the Titans out of the endzone. But Tennessees moved the ball 118 yards on its two final drives, the last of which resulted in an overtime field goal that ended the game. Quarterback Kerry Collins passed for 68 yards on those two drives.

Collins finished 18-of-37 for 180 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. Six of his completions were to running back Chris Johnson, who led the team in that category and yards, with 72 on the day.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White combined for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 32 carries. Johnson handled the majority, with 24 for 89 yards and was very effective at the end of the game. White, meanwhile, contributed with 8 carries for 77 yards, thanks mostly to a 54 yard carry in the second quarter. That drive resulted in Tennessee’s only touchdown of the game, a 3 yard rush by Johnson.

Rob Bironas was 4-for-5 on field goals, missing a game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter (47 yards) and making the game-winner in overtime (41 yards).

Where the Teams Now Stand

Green Bay is 4-4 and tied with Minnesota for second in the NFC North. Chicago leads the division with a 5-3 record. Green Bay plays at Minnesota next week.

Tennessee is 8-0 and on top of the AFC South. They play at Chicago next week.