I wrote a post earlier today on getting started in fantasy football analysis, but if you want a quick tip that won’t take more than 3 minutes, try this one.

Consistency is the most underrated factor in fantasy football, but it can be tough to gauge how consistent a fantasy player really is until you incorporate something called “benchmarks.” Basically, you want to get a feel for how often a player exceeds the average for his position. You want, on your roster, players who are above average a lot during the course of the regular season. Makes sense, right?

To simplify the process, set up some benchmaks for each position. Here are the numbers I use:

Quarterbacks: 175 passing yards and 2 touchdowns (15 points in standard league scoring, with 1 point per 25 passing yards and 4 points per passing touchdown)

Running Backs: 100 yards or 40 yards and a touchdown (10 points in standard league scoring)

Wide Receivers: 90 yards or 30 yards and a touchdown (9 points in standard league scoring)

Tight Ends: 60 yards or a touchdown (6 points in standard league scoring)

Kickers: 8 points

Defenses: 10 points

Now, you may want to vary the numbers based on your specific league and its scoring rules, but that’s how I do it for most of my leagues. Once you have your benchmarks in place, head over to your statistics site of choice (I love Sports Data Hub because the trends tool makes it super-easy to imagine a line stretching across the graph and get a quick idea of which weeks the player came through).

Find the players who exceeded those bench marks often. Those who doubled the bench marks or exceeded them by a great deal on a weekly basis should be your upper-tier players. Others who simply met the bench marks on a regular basis will be solid players during the season.

This is also great during the season when debating whether a player should be started or kept on the bench. Take a look at how the opposing defense - how often does it allow opponents to meet those benchmarks?

It won’t take more than three minutes per player or defense to get these numbers, and you’ll have a better, more consistent team because of it. Remember, if your entire roster (in a standard league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF) meets its bench marks during a given week, you’ll score 84 points. Chances are, you’ll have a couple elite playes who blow up their bench marks and get you an extra 10-15 points, making 100 points per week very possible.

In any event, it’s a great way to separate two players who had similar overall seasons, but were very different on a week-to-week basis.

Good luck!

The euphoria for Packers fans is over. Time for reality to kick in.

After a 2-0 start to the season, the Packers have stumbled offensively the past two games and now sit at .500. Aaron Rodgers either separated his shoulder or sprained it - depends on your source. The Packers running backs have gained 94 yards the past two weeks, and the team as a whole has turned the ball over five times. The defense now ranks 23rd in points per game allowed.

Not quite what fans had in mind after seeing the Packers first two games. So what’s going wrong?

First, the Packers offense isn’t scoring enough points. Against the Cowboys the offense found itself in or near the red zone three times in the first three quarters, but scored just nine points. Mason Crosby’s longest field goal was a 38-yarder, which means the Packers were on the 21 yard line when they settled for three points. Had Green Bay scored just one touchdown instead of a field goal on those drives it would have been a much different game.

Second, Aaron Rodgers himself is having some trouble. He doesn’t look as comfortable in the pocket because he’s taking a lot of hits. He was sacked just once in the first two games of the season. Compare that to him being taken down a combined eight times against the Cowboys and Buccaneesr. One hit this weekend left him walking off the field to get checked on by the trainers. Rodgers said it felt as if he separated his shoulder, though Mike McCarthy said today that it was a sprain. (He expects Rodgers to be ready for the Falcons game.)

It’s also hurting the offense that Rodgers has trouble throwing into traffic at times. He looked that way against the Cowboys, almost as if he was afraid to make a mistake. Fans are accustomed to Favre throwing into difficult situations regularly and usually that has led to scores. Instead, the Cowboys would drop seven or eight into coverage and make sure no one was open, while Rodgers struggled to make a decision.

Then he went to the other extreme this week against the Bucs. Granted, his first interception was 100 percent the fault of running back Brandon Jackson, who let the ball bounce off his chest and into the hands of Derrick Brooks. But there were two other passes that could have easily been intercepted, both of which were poor passes, and two more that actually were caught by the defense.

Also, the Packers running game has been largely inneffective in the past two weeks. Ryan Grant and Jackson have combined for 94 yards on 32 carries, dipping to just 20 yards on 16 carries against Tampa Bay this past Sunday. That’s just a bit below 3.0 yards per carry on the season.

But here’s the good news. Both losses have been relatively close, which is a good thing for a team that is losing turnover battles by landslides. It means that the defense has been relatively strong, no matter what the numbers say. Turnovers oftentimes mean that there is a tired defense on the field, good field position for the opposing offense, and a shift in momentum. Consider: against the Buccaneers the Packers turned the ball over twice in the second quarter; that resulted in 10 points because the Bucs only had to drive 32 yards and 27 yards. On the same token, the Packers aren’t taking advantage of turnovers enough. Against Tampa Bay, the Packers defense forced three interceptions and a punt in the third quarter while allowing zero points. What did the Packers offense turn that into? One touchdown, two punts, and a fumble. That the Packers have lost the past two weeks by relatively close margins is a good sign.

So what’s to come for the Packers? I think as the season goes on the team will start focusing more attention on running the football to keep defenses from focusing on Rodgers and dropping seven or eight into coverage. Rodgers himself should also grow more comfortable in the offense and with his receivers. He already loves throwing the ball to Greg Jennings (who is arguably the NFL’s most dynamic wide receiver this season), but he should also start spreading the ball around more. The defense is there; Green Bay just needs to start getting that offense jumpstarted again; expect McCarthy to make that a big priority and for the team to respond.

The Denver Broncos are 3-0 right now, but pundits everywhere are hesitant to give them too much praise. During last night’s broadcast of Sunday Night Football, Chris Collinsworth and the rest of the team refused to acknowledge that the team is “for real.” Instead members opted to pick Tennessee and Buffalo as the AFC’s surprises that aren’t just getting lucky.

To be honest, it’s a bit startling that no one wants to pick the Broncos to win anything, despite the team’s incredibly productive offense. The Broncos are averaging 38.0 points per game this season; that’s the best mark in the NFL. The only problem is, the defense is allowing 28.0 points per game(28th) and that includes a game in which the Broncos allowed just seven points (week one vs. Oakland). The defense’s biggest weakness: pass coverage. In terms of yardage Denver falls in at dead last in the NFL, allowing opponents to pass for over 315 yards per contest.

The good news is that Denver does have a lot (A LOT) of talent on offense, and that keeps the team ahead of its opponents. Jay Cutler is quickly establishing himself as a top five quarterback in the NFL. Only Drew Brees, who ironically got a good chunk of his passing yards against the Broncos Sunday, has more passing yards this season, and Cutler’s 8 touchdowns easily place him at the top of the NFL in that category, 2 ahead of anyone else. Better yet, he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes; he has just two interceptions this season, fewer than anyone with as many pass attempts as him.

And he’s taking advantage of a very young group of pass catchers. Tony Scheffler and Brandon Marshall, who last week set a franchise record for receptions in a single game with 18, were both taken in the same draft class as Cutler. An interesting fact to consider is that Marshall, who missed week one with a suspension, is still ranked second in the NFL in catches this season with 24. And the speedy rookie Eddie Royal, who started while Marshall missed time, continues to make defenses look silly; he’s tied for 7th in the NFL in receptions this season. All three players have caught two touchdowns this season, and Scheffler is tied for the lead in that category.

Not surprisingly, the Broncos are the undefeated team in the NFL to be allowing more than three touchdowns, or 21 points, per game. Four of the other five unbeatens have allowed fewer than 17 points per contest. In fact, the closest team to Denver in terms of weak defense is New Orleans; and at 1-2, they’re currently ranked 4th in the NFC South. Denver, meanwhile, already has a two game lead on the division.

The question we must ask now is, how long can this winning last? The Broncos have also been on the receiving end of some good fortune in the past two weeks. In week two against the San Diego Chargers, Ed Hocculi blew a call that gave the Broncos a second chance (which they capitalized on), and yesterday the Saints’ Martin Grammatica blew a field goal that would have given the Saints the lead with less than two minutes to play. In other words, the Broncos are this close to being 1-2. Now, I will admit that the winningest teams in the NFL always have luck on their side; however, at some point you have to say, well, it’s great the Denver can put up almost 40 points per game, but shouldn’t they start keeping opponents off the board, too?

Consider the last two Super Bowl champions, the New York Giants and Indianapolis Colts. Neither team had a great defense during the regular season; the Giants ranked 17th in points allowed and the Colts ranked 23rd. But they stepped it up in the postseason, and each team allowed 20+ points just once in the playoffs. And it bears pointing out that the Colts beat the Patriots 38-34 in the AFC Championship game.

The eight Super Bowls winners before that? No team ranked out of the top ten and six of the champs had a top five defense.

In other words, it’s best if the Broncos keep scoring 38 points a game, and maybe every once in a while the team can keep a good opponent below 30 points. Besides, it’s the postseason that matters, so Denver has 14 more games to figure out how to cover. Hope they do, Broncos fans, hope they do.

Against the Green Bay Packers tonight, the Dallas Cowboys showed us a lot. It wasn’t all good, but the team did come away with a solid win against another great team they might meet again this winter.

To start, Tony Romo didn’t have a great game. In fact, he was downright streaky during this one. But he kept firing away throughout the ballgame and he never let his mistakes - an interception in the red zone, two intentional groundings - get to him. He doesn’t just put his mistakes behind him during games, he learns from them; definitely a good thing for any player and especially a quarterback.

Perhaps the Packers greatest weakness in this game was the team’s failure to pressure Tony Romo on a consistent basis. Whenever the Packers rushed four, especially on crucial third downs (Green Bay getting beaten for a touchdown on a 3rd-and-20 in the fourth quarter sealed the game), they couldn’t get the pressure they needed to. Romo is like most NFL quarterbacks; give him enough time in the pocket and he’ll beat you. Bad.

But I think it’s fair to say that the Cowboys running backs won the game for them in this one. Felix Jones showed just how fast he is (see: blazing speed) on a 60 yard scamper in the second quarter that put the Cowboys up, 10-6. Marion Barber, meanwhile, carried the ball quite a bit (28 times for 142 yards and a touchdown) and wore down the Packers defense while making sure the Cowboys won the time of possession battle.

Green Bay, unfortunately, didn’t have that kind of luck. Green Bay’s backs carried for 74 yards on the night, while Aaron Rodgers, though he didn’t make any costly mistakes, failed to get the Packers into the endzone until the game was out of reach. The Cowboys could rush four and drop everyone else into coverage and Rodgers wouldn’t be able to find an open target. Dallas’s coverage was just too good.

The Packers also killed their defense late in the game. Too many three-and-outs and other short drives meant that the Packers defense was on the field much too often. The Packers ultimately had just three “big” drives of at least seven plays until late in the game, when things were out of reach. In fact, the team had just two drives that lasted at least two-and-a-half minutes (prior to the final scoring drive). Dallas, on the other hand, had four drives of at least 67 yards.

The Packers also struggled with field position. Only once did they start past their own 29 yard line; three times they started at their own 12 or 13 yard line; their other drives began at their own 19, 21, 24, 26, and 29 yard lines.

There were some highlights for Green Bay, however. Rodgers did look comfortable in the pocket and on one particular play early on, he looked Favre-esque. Greg Jennings is clearly his favorite wide receiver and the two connected 8 times for 115 yards. And on the team’s last scoring drive, the Packers marched down the field with a lot of good pass passes. Jordy Nelson was especially used on the drive, catching four passes as the Cowboys left him relatively open. By any measure that drive was very good: 81 yards on 11 plays in a little under three-and-a-half minutes. And hey, the team got a chance to operate its two minute drive. Plus Rodgers took out 300-pound defensive end Chris Canty with a block on the team’s last drive.

On the same token, not all was sunny for Dallas. Marion Barber, though he had an otherwise excellent game, fumbled twice. Romo also fumbled once and threw a pick early on.

All things considered, this was a good game for the Cowboys to win and a great game for both teams to play. They both now know how they stack up with each other and you can bet the coaches will be poring over this game’s tape to see what went wrong and what went right and how they can improve. One thing is certain: these are two of the best teams in the NFL.

Consider this your Cheatsheet to the Patriots-Jets game on Sunday.

The Essentials

Who’s playing? The New England Patriots (1-0) and New York Jets (1-0)

What’s the spread? New York (-1)

Where’s it at? New York

Who won last time? New England, 20-10; December 16, 2007

What about before that? The Patriots have won nine of the last ten meetings, but the Jets lead the series, 48-46-2

What’s the significance? The two most publicized storylines here deal with a guy who’s playing and another who isn’t. Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre won his first game as a New York Jet last week against the Dolphins and has brought some serious high hopes to his new franchise. New England, however, will be without quarterback Tom Brady, who was injured last week and will miss the remainder of the season. It also bears mentioning that this is an AFC East matchup and rivalry; head coaches Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini have a bit of a history. (They hate each other.)

What should I watch for? One of the main things I’ll be looking at is how the absence of Tom Brady will affect the Patriots playcalling tendencies. The safe bet is that the Patriots will focus their attention on running the ball effectively while Matt Cassell commands the offense. That should in turn affect the values of Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, and Ben Watson.

In my opinion, Wes Welker’s value will be most effected. He’s a possession receiver in the purest sense of the term. Chances are, with Cassell under center, Welker will see fewer throws his way and that will hurt his overall worth in fantasy football.

Of course, I’ll also be watching Matt Cassell in his first NFL start. In fact, it’s his first start since he was playing high school football in sunny, Southern California. He looked good last week, passing for 152 yards and a touchdown in a winning effort. This week he’ll have a little more pressure to perform because the expectations will be raised a little. How he responds to that will be a very interesting storyline.

On the Jets side, I’m just looking forward to another week of Brett Favre. It’s odd watching him in a Jets jersey, but, surprisingly, it wasn’t a difficult transition to see him with the new franchise. And I live in Wisconsin, among the aptly-nicknamed cheeseheads. I think the general consensus is that most Packers fans have now bumped the Jets to number 2 (or perhaps 1a) on their lists of favorite teams.

Thomas Jones looked excellent last week, as well, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown with a 4.6 yard per carry average. The Patriots have a better rush defense than the Dolphins, so it will be interesting watching Jones between the tackles this week.

Who’s going to win? I’ll take the New York Bretts at home in this one I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Belichick-coached Patriots pull out a win.

Earlier this week I talked a little about what Matt Cassell is worth and what his individual fantasy impact will be for this season. I mentioned that he’s in a great scenario, as the starting quarterback for a team loaded with talent at wide receiver, but I didn’t really talk about how the talent around him - namely, Randy Moss and Wes Welker - will be impacted, in a fantasy sense.

Matt Cassell is a young quarterback who sort of found himself in the same scenario as Aaron Rodgers. At 26, he, like Rodgers, is in his fourth season and had spent the previous three on the sideline while a future Hall of Fame quarterback went to work. And prior to last week’s game, he had 39 career pass attempts (and two touchdowns/interceptions). Unlike Rodgers, however, Cassell wasn’t expecting to start this season. All backups say that they train and prepare for the season as if they will play at some point, but one has to think that it’s difficult to mentally prepare oneself for an upcoming season when one is second on the depth chart behind Tom Brady. Basically, I think it’s fair to say that he’ll probably deal with some NFL-style “growing pains” this season.

Now, how will that impact the rest of the offense?

First, let’s assume the Patriots begin focusing more attention on the running game. I think it’s fair to guess that the team doesn’t want to put any more pressure on Cassell than it must, so limiting his pass attempts is a nice start. In Tom Brady’s first season as a quarterback, for example, he threw 413 passes in 15 games. That’s about 27-28 pass attempts per game, and I think that’s about the number Cassell will average this season. So let’s round that number up to an even 30 and guess that the former SoCal quarterback is capable of completing 60-65 percent of his passes, or between 18-20 completions per game. Compare that number to what Brady averaged last season: about 25.

What does it mean? It means that everyone on the Patriots roster is going to see some dip in production from last season, if for no other reason than they will have fewer opportunities. Now we can start distributing those completions among his wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs. 

Let’s start with Randy Moss. Moss, who topped most draft boards at the wide receiver position, is an incredibly gifted athlete. He’ll be tough to cover this season, so the real question is how many balls will be thrown his way and, obviously, how many he’ll catch. My guess is that Cassell is going to love trying to find Randy Moss because he’s a big target with great hands. In any case, he fits well as a security blanket for the inexperienced. I don’t really think he’ll see a significant drop (in terms of receptions) from his preseason projections, and I think he’ll wind up with 80-90 catches this season.

Wes Welker owners, on the other hand, depended on the number of receptions he had last season. I don’t think there’s any way he comes close to those numbers he had. The Patriots used him on short routes last season (effectively making him a very good option on running downs), but because the team will actually be handing the ball off this season, I think he’s going to have something in the neighborhood of 75 catches this season.

Two more targets - wide receiver Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson - will also see drops in their preseason projections. I think each will handle about 40 catches this season, something that sounds reasonable considering that Watson is prone to injuries and Gaffney is the number three wide receiver in an offense that will be passing the ball quite a bit less. That’s about 15 completions per game between those four players, which leaves the other three-five (or about 50-80 completions over the season) to be divided among the rest of the offense.

Also, I should point out that Cassell won’t be throwing a lot of touchdowns this season, either. Averaging 18-20 completions per game, I think he’ll probably wind up with 20-25 on the year. Moss will take most of those (10-12), Welker will finish with a few (5-6), and Watson and Gaffney should manage to several each (3), while the remainder of the offense handles what’s left over.

Ultimately, what does it mean for fantasy owners who have Patriots on their rosters? Quite simply, the season isn’t going to go as planned and that means every player on the offense (except perhaps the running backs, who should handle more carries) has lost value. Moss is now a lower-end WR1, Welker is perhaps a WR3, and the rest might not even be worth a spot on the roster. 

Well, that’s it. It’s over.

The NFL offseason is finally over, and just a few hours after it ended, the New York Giants kicked off the 2008 NFL regular season the way any team would want; with a win. Better yet for those New Yorkers, it was against division rival Washington.

Though Eli Manning wasn’t particularly impressive - he finished 19-of-35 for 216 yards and an interception - his favorite wide receiver, Plaxico Burress, certainly was. Burress snagged 10 catches for 133 yards and looked very impressive on the night. Manning did, however, score once during the game, capping off the Giants first drive with a bootleg to the right sideline that he cut upfield for a touchdown. It was the Giants only touchdown in their 16-7 victory.

But perhaps the biggest reason for New York’s success in this one was the solid effort of Brandon Jacobs. At one point in the first quarter he seemed to set the tone for the game when he plowed over safety LaRon Landry, absolutely putting Landry on his back. Jacobs, who carried 21 times, averaged 5.5 yards per carry and kept the ball in New York’s possession for much of the night. In fact, the Giants controlled the football for just under 36 minutes (60 percent of the game). Fifth year running back Derrick Ward also contributed with 39 yards on 9 carries.

Enough about New York, though; what about the Redskins? Jim Zorn’s regular season debut as a head coach didn’t necessarily go according to plan, as his defense struggled to stop the run or contain Plaxico Burress. But to be fair, this was a game in which the winning team scored just 16 points, all of which came on the Giants first four possessions. I think it’s fair, then, to admit that this was a game in which the Redskins simply never got it going on offense.

The team went 3-and-out on four possessions and had just one drive that lasted at least three minutes. Worse yet, the team opened both halves with three and four punts, respectively. The Redskins controlled the ball for just 7:38 of the first 28 minutes of the game and registered just 21 yards of offense. Compare that to the 268 yards the Giants gained in the same amount of game time.

Not a particularly good game for the ‘Skins offense. Quarterback Jason Campbell completed 15-of-27 for 133 yards and a touchdown, with most of those yards going the way of Antwaan Randle El who finished with 7 receptions for 73 yards. Santana Moss was the only other player with more than one catch (he had 5 for 37 yards and a touchdown). And Clinton Portis was his usual, inconsistent (is that a bit contradicting?) self, carrying for 84 yards on 23 carries. But though that 3.7 yard per carry average doesn’t look particularly bad, let me point out that he also had a 23 yard run. Remove that from the equation, and his “true” average is 2.8.

So what does it mean if a team starts 0-1 or 1-0? Not a lot, to be truthful. But in some cases, a win like this can set the tone for the entire season. Giants fans, then, can look forward to a promising year. And I suppose the same can be said of fantasy football owners who drafted Plaxico Burress and Brandon Jacobs.

I recently participated in a fantasy football draft with some of my fellow Sports Data Hub colleagues and that some of you out there might be interested in taking a look at my team. I’ve included analysis as to why I drafted the players on my team and why I like my roster at this point (like most people, I’m happy with the way things look after a fantasy draft).

First, some league details: this was a pretty standard 10-team fantasy league with 8 starters - QB-RB-RB-WR/T-WR/T-T-D-K - and 4 bench players. Scoring was 6 points per touchdown, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving and 25 yards passing, and 1 point per reception. I drafted third overall.

And now, the roster:

1st round (3) - Brian Westbrook (RB). This was a no-brainer for me; I love Brian Westbrook and would argue that in PPR leagues he’s second only to LT. He caught 90 receptions last season, which means he scored about 50 points more than the average starting running back in that category.

2nd round (18) - Tony Romo (QB). It was extremely important to grab a good starting quarterback in this league, since the position will score so many points on touchdowns. Romo was second in the NFL in that category last season and should post great numbers again in the Cowboys pass-effective offense. He was the fourth quarterback off the board, after Brady, Manning, and Brees.

3rd round (23) - Braylon Edwards (WR). Edwards in the third round meant I’d have an elite receiver on my roster, in addition to my top five projected quarterback and running back. I hesitate a bit because I’m not 100 percent confident in the abilities of Derek Anderson, but I still thought he was the best available player at this point.

4th round (38) - Willis McGahee (RB). Willis McGahee in the fourth round? Sweet. There was an enormous run on wide receivers in this round too, (8 of 10 picks used to get a WR) so I was happy to have drafted my WR1 in the third.

5th round (43) - Greg Jennings (WR). I only hesitate a bit here because Jennings doesn’t necessarily catch a lot of passes (53 last season). That said, he’s a playmaker and someone who’s going to be putting the ball in the endzone.

6th round (58) - Jeremy Shockey (TE). I love that Shockey is in New Orleans these days and think he’ll see a lot of throws his way. He’s an extremely talented player in a pass-happy offense that will give him plenty of opportunities - in other words, someone poised to break out.

7th round (63) - Willie Parker (RB). I’m not sure how much I like Parker because of how few passes he handled last season, but I do think his touchdowns will be up this year. As a bench player I like him and I think finding him in the 7th was a good value.

8th round (78) - Brett Favre (QB). Tony Romo is going to start 90 percent of the time for my roster this season (I hope), but Favre is a good backup. He might not tear it up this year, but I’m happy to have him on my roster. He showed us all last season he can still play at an elite level and he’s a great QB2.

9th round (83) - Roddy White (WR). He might play for the Falcons, a team not settled at quarterback, but he did a darn good job last season in a similar situation. Whoever is at quarterback will throw him the ball, meaning another 80-catch season. Good WR3 for my roster.

10th round (98) - Green Bay (D). The Packers were good last season and there’s very little reason to suspect they won’t be good again. The team is for the most part very young (except at the most important positions, where there is veteran leadership and experience).

11th round (103) - Donald Lee (TE). I loved finding Lee as my backup tight end because he can also fill in at wide receiver in this league. Inexperienced quarterbacks love tight ends and Lee showed plenty of upside last season

12th round (118) - David Akers (K). Just watch this:

Thoughts and opinions on the roster are welcome.

Sometimes in fantasy football it’s easy to get caught up in flat out not liking a player because his attitude off the football field is less-than-admirable. One such cringe-worthy player is Jeremy Shockey, a guy who doesn’t mind getting in fights and loves to run his mouth, oftentimes leading to those same fights.

But on the field there’s a short list of tight ends who are as athletically gifted as him and in a situation as flat out perfect as his.

First, however, let’s take a look at his past from a statistical perspective:

• In the past three seasons, Shockey has averaged 15 games (he’s never played a complete season), 63 receptions, 711 yards, and 6 touchdowns.
• His best season came in 2005, when he got a lot of mileage out of his 65 receptions (averaging nearly 14 yards per catch, a very impressive number for a tight end) and scored 7 touchdowns.
• Dating back to 2004, he’s only finished with fewer than 60 receptions once: last season, when he missed 2 games.
• In that same amount of time, he’s never failed to finish with more than 600 receiving yards.
• In the three seasons prior to 2007, he caught 6, 7, and 7 touchdown passes; nice consistency there.
• Assuming you’re in a pretty standard scoring league (no PPR), Shockey was a pretty good fantasy pick those seasons (top 7 each season), peaking in 2005 when he finished 2nd among tight ends.

Now, that was the past, when he played for the Giants. Now, from an outsider’s perspective, it seemed like he hated Tom Coughlin, which makes sense. Coughlin is a hardcore, by-the-book, do-what-I-say-or-else kind of coach whereas Shockey is a bit of a rebel.

But this season means a change of scenery for the latter, going to play in an offense where Drew Brees threw more than 650 passes last season and completed 143 more than Eli Manning. That means more opportunities and more potential for Shockey in New Orleans. He’s a vast improvement over Eric Johnson (someone who never once averaged more than 10.1 yards per catch in a season), and he should fit the offense very well as a great additional receiver.

The Giants may have unloaded Shockey because he has an attitude, but that’s going to fuel his fire this season. He’s the kind of player who gets heated up by negative comments and actions directed at him (the Giants are guilty on both counts), and that might just be the spark your fantasy team needs, too.

Derek Anderson was a favorite fantasy sleeper last season. He emerged from Cleveland, a team that hasn’t produced a good passing attack since Bernie Kosar lit up defenses in the ’80s, to finish as one of the league’s top ten fantasy passers. No one saw it coming; no one sane at least. In fact, most suspected that by midseason Brady Quinn would have won the starting duties.

That didn’t happen. Instead, Anderson used the tools he was provided (a solid running back, a good offensive line, and a great target at wide receiver) to light up defenses in a way most never would have expected.

He was a cinderfella story last season. Unfortunately, that could prove to leave him to disappoint a lot of fantasy owners this season.

I’ve noticed that he’s ranked in the top five in some fantasy publications; most others will put him in the top ten, at least, usually a spot or two away from being top five. Unfortunately, he might not live up to those expectations.

I don’t think Anderson is going to be a flat out bust this season, but the deck isn’t exactly stacked in his favor this year. Remember, the Browns flashed a lot of potential last season (and were pretty darn close to a Wild Card playoff berth), but this is the Cleveland Browns we’re talking about.

Let’s consider:

• Anderson threw 29 touchdowns last season, but he also completed 19 passes to the wrong jerseys. There were four games last season (out of the 16 he played) in which he didn’t throw an interception. If your league punishes players for throwing picks, Anderson’s value might dip a little.
• Anderson completed just 56.5 percent of his pass attempts. Now, that doesn’t necessarily translate to fantasy football directly, but it does mean he wasn’t always effective with the football.
• The Browns took the league by surprise a year ago, but don’t expect that again this season. Defenses will be looking to contain the passing game, asking Jamal Lewis to outrun them. Despite the fact he had a good showing in 2007, I’m not 100 percent sold on Lewis this season.
• On the same token, Anderson played with reckless abandon last season. If he didn’t put up great numbers, his career (at least in terms of being a starter in this league) was as good as dead. Now, he’s been rewarded with a nice new contract, significantly limiting the potential that Quinn will leapfrog him in the lineup. Sometimes players don’t play as well when they have better job security.

Now, let me again point out that I don’t think Anderson will have a bad season. In fact, I like Anderson and I think that if the Browns have a good season, it will be because the offense carried the team again. But to consider him a top five quarterback (or number 6 or 7) just seems a little premature to me. I think passing in general will be down this season (after a year like 2007, when every quarterback in the NFL seemed to be a part of some sort of Golden Age), and I don’t think Anderson has the potential that some are suggesting.

Do I believe Anderson is a fantasy starter? Absolutely. But I would draft him in the 8-10 range because he hasn’t proven himself like a lot of other quarterbacks have.