One game remains before the fourth week of the National Football League is kaput, which means many fantasy owners are already thinking about Week 5. Let’s get a head-start on that by reviewing the all-important target statistic from Sunday’s games.

- Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland Browns: Massaquoi, the Browns’ rookie wideout, was targeted 13 times by Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson, and wound up with eight catches for 148 yards. In his three previous games this season, Massaquoi had just two catches for 31 yards. The Browns are desperate for offense, and the second-round pick out of Georgia brings excellent athletic ability, setting him up for big games here and there. Massaquoi could be a match-up based fantasy contributor if Anderson continues at quarterback and teams continue to focus on Braylon Edwards (who had zero catches on five targets Sunday).

- Steve Smith, New York Giants: Smith was targeted a whopping 16 times in the Giants’ win over the Chiefs, and he wound up catching 11 of those passes for 134 yards and two scores. His 16 targets were double the amount of Mario Manningham, who was second on the team in that statistic on Sunday. Smith has now been targeted 44 times, which is second in the NFL only to Randy Moss, who has 45. Eli Manning clearly trusts Smith a great deal, and Smith is now a must-start every week.

- Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans: With 12 targets on Sunday, Washington has taken over from Justin Gage as the Titans’ team leader in that category with 31, compared to Gage’s 30. Washington, who caught seven passes for 66 yards in Tennessee’s loss to Jacksonville, is now 11th in the AFC in targets, and has been targeted at least seven times in each of his past three games.

- Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens: Mason was targeted 11 times on Sunday, hauling in seven passes for 88 yards and a score as Baltimore fell to New England. Mason is eighth in the AFC and 13th in the NFL with 33 targets on the year, and it was the third time in the Ravens’ four games this season that Mason was targeted by quarterback Joe Flacco at least eight times. With Baltimore now willing to air it out more than last season, Mason’s fantasy value becomes increased as he is Flacco’s No. 1 option.

Other Week 4 target numbers of interest: Kenny Britt, Mike Sims-Walker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 11; Brandon Pettigrew, Mark Clayton, 10; Miles Austin, Chris Chambers, Johnny Knox, 8; Terrell Owens, Mike Furrey, 7; Santana Moss, 4; Ted Ginn Jr., 3.

 This is the second part of a four-part series that details how knowing an offensive scheme can go a long way in predicting player performance.  You can view the first part by clicking here.

Detroit Lions [HC: Schwartz (Titans), OC: Linehan (Rams)]

After leading the hapless Rams to a record of 11-25 over the past 3 seasons, Scott Linehan will return to what brought him the most success-being an offensive coordinator.  He even has the QB who brought him much of that success as OC in Minnesota, Daunte Culpepper.  But this isn’t the Daunte of old, just an old Daunte, and he will likely give way to Matt Stafford at some point during the season.  Neither one will have much fantasy impact this season, but if in a keeper league, you definitely want to keep an eye on Stafford in later rounds.  As everyone knows, the star of the offense is Calvin Johnson.  But as much as I like Megatron, I don’t see his numbers making a dramatic jump over last year’s.  It has nothing to do with talent, but more so with game situations.  The Lions were down in the 4th quarter of every game, so they had to throw the ball to try to catch up.  Detroit is not going to go 0-16 again, so that means more 4th quarter leads and more running the ball to consume time.  I do believe Johnson will increase his 78 receptions because of better QB accuracy but his other numbers (1338 yds. 12 TD) will remain about the same.

The beneficiary of the increased emphasis on the ground game is Kevin Smith, who had the sixth most rushing yards during the last 8 weeks of the season.  As the full-time starter, Smith will inherit the Steven-Jackson role in Linehan’s scheme as a dual-threat back.  I think 1500 total yards is possible and because of the Lions record last year, he will be overlooked in many drafts.  He’s not a top-10 running back, yet, but I do like him as a RB2 and as the talent around him increases, he will become a fantasy star.  The scouting report on rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew is that he’s a great in-line blocker, with good hands, but cannot separate from defenders.  Well if he couldn’t separate in college, then there’s no way he will be able to do it in the NFL.  I view him as a “move-the-chains” tight end who will get his fair share of receptions but won’t accumulate many yards.  His best comparison to an NFL TE would be Jacksonville’s Mercedes Lewis who’s also known more for his blocking than receiving.  If in a PPR league, then he may have value but otherwise he should only be used as a bye-week replacement.

St. Louis Rams [HC: Spagnuolo (Giants), OC: Shurmur (Eagles)]

Little is known about former Eagles QB coach Pat Shurmur.  Under Andy Reid the Eagles ran a version of the west coast offense (WCO), so it was anticipated that Shurmur would implement it into the Rams offense as well.  Now that training camp is underway, it has been confirmed by the Associated Press that the Rams will use the WCO in 2009.  That is great news for QB Mark Bulger as the WCO is designed for the QB to get the ball out quickly with 3 and 5-step drop backs.  I’m sure Bulger is ecstatic about this since he has been sacked 191 times since 2004, just one fewer than Ben Roethlisberger’s league-leading 192.  But Bulger has also played in 7 fewer games than Roethlisberger during that period.  Bulger doesn’t have the receivers he had when he was a Pro Bowler, but you can expect an increase in numbers across the board.  He’s a guy who will be overlooked because of his team’s lack of success but he still has now tools, and now has the scheme, to once again return to fantasy relevancy.

Steven Jackson only played 12 games last year and only had a FB for 7 of those, but he still managed 1000 yards rushing.  As the above graph shows, Jackson has averaged the third most yards from scrimmage per game over the last two seasons.  That shows you the ability that he has and he remains a top-5 pick.  What the WCO means for him is more receiving opportunities which further boost his status.  He has everything you want from a #1 back and if you could guarantee me that he would play a full 16, then I would have no problem taking him at #1.  TE Randy McMichael used to be a fantasy stud with Miami, but has been relegated to more pass protection with the Rams.  If you’re one of those people who drafts your starting tight end after drafting your backup RBs and WRs, then McMichael would be a good pick up.  The only other draft-worthy player on the Rams offense is Donnie Avery.  He’s a far different receiver than Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce as those two would run crisp routes as the QB would lob the ball and then they would just run under it.  Avery is a YAC guy-he could take an 8 yard slant route into an 80 yard touchdown.  With the WCO, Avery should play in the slot more which will increase his chances for a long catch-and-run.  I had high hopes for Avery until his injury.  I would only draft him if your league allows lots of bench players.  Otherwise just pick him up in free agency once you hear that he’s practicing again with the team.

We continue our look at the fantasy rankings of each position with the tight ends. As the graph below shows, the position is somewhat top-heavy. The difference between the second-highest scorer in terms of fantasy points last season, Jason Witten, and the tenth-highest scorer, Zach Miller, is nearly 40 points. Still, taking an elite player at this position in the earlier rounds is somewhat risky. Despite the numbers Tony Gonzalez put up last season - which he won’t repeat in 2009 - even the highest scoring tight ends in fantasy amount to little more than a WR2.

1.Jason Witten: No T.O. means even bigger things this season for Tony Romo’s favorite target. He should very easily score more than the four touchdowns he put up last season.

2.Antonio Gates: Receptions and yards were down for Gates in last year’s campaign, but he still scored eight times. Expect a bit of a rebound in his all-around numbers.

3.Tony Gonzalez: New team, new offense, new players around him. Gonzalez will still be effective with the Falcons, but there’s no chance he nears 100 catches and scores 10 times like he did in 2008.

4.Chris Cooley: Eighty-three catches for nearly 850 yards is outstanding for a tight end. What’s not so outstanding is the one time he crossed the goal-line. That won’t be the case this season.

5.Dallas Clark: Same old, same old for the reliable Clark. His numbers were similar to Cooley’s last season, except he found the end zone five more times.

6.Greg Olsen: A lack of good options at wideout will make Olsen one of new quarterback Jay Cutler’s favorite targets.

7.John Carlson: He had a great rookie campaign, but will likely regress a bit in his second season. The addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and better overall health of Seattle’s receiving corps will hurt his numbers.

8.Owen Daniels: Like Cooley, Daniels had very good overall numbers with 70 catches for over 850 yards, but he lacked in touchdowns, scoring just twice. If Matt Schaub can stay healthy, that number should go up.

9.Kellen Winslow: Winslow is one of the more difficult players to project for this season. On one hand, he’s healthy (for now anyway), but with the unsettled quarterback situation in Tampa, as well as what should be a run-oriented offense, Winslow likely won’t accumulate the numbers he has in the past.

10.Zach Miller: Poor Miller. If he played anywhere else than Oakland, people would know a lot more about what he’s done. The third-year tight end caught 56 passes for 778 yards last year, but scored just once. As JaMarcus Russell continues to improve, Miller should see his numbers ascend.

11.Dustin Keller: Keller drove his fantasy owners mad with his inconsistency last season, but should improve on that aspect of his game in his second go-around. Like Olsen, Keller is in a situation where his team has a dearth of wideouts, making him an attractive target.

12.Brent Celek: In Philly’s last four games, including the playoffs, Celek scored four times and twice had at least 50 receiving yards. He takes over full-time for L.J. Smith and should get his fair share of opportunities in the Eagles’ West Coast offense.

13.Heath Miller: Last season, Miller set a career-high with 48 receptions, but his three touchdowns were a career-low. Forty-five catches, 550 yards and five scores is about what you should realistically expect in 2009.

14.Vernon Davis: The only reason Davis is ranked this high is due to 49ers offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye vowing that Davis will be a big part of San Francisco’s offense. Davis does have the talent, and it seems like he should have already put it all together, but it has yet to happen. Maybe this is the year.

15: Randy McMichael: Why so high on McMichael? There are a few reasons, one of the most prominent being that the Rams have few other proven receiving options. Also, the team has transitioned to the West Coast offense under new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, and that is a traditionally tight-end friendly scheme. All of which makes McMichael a very attractive sleeper for a TE2.

Best of the Rest

16. Bo Scaife
17. Anthony Fasano
18. Visanthe Shiancoe
19. Marcedes Lewis
20. Kevin Boss
21. Jeremy Shockey
22. Donald Lee
23. Tony Scheffler
24. Brandon Pettigrew
25. L.J. Smith

The tight end position can be overlooked by fantasy owners from time to time and understandably so. Unlike the wide receiver and running back positions, most leagues just play one tight end, and they don’t put up quite the numbers those positions do either. In fact, of the top-40 players in catches last season, just six were tight ends, and of the top-40 players in receiving yards, just five were tight ends. However, there is one caveat: touchdowns. There were eight tight ends among the top-30 players in that category last season, making them a novel resource for fantasy owners who play in touchdown-heavy leagues. So let’s examine some rookies who may be able to contribute for fantasy owners this season.

Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (First Round): The first tight end selected in the draft, Pettigrew should step right into the Lions’ lineup as a starter. The Oklahoma State product is known more for his prowess as a blocker than as a pass catcher, but as you can see in the graph to the right, the Lions need to find someone other than Calvin Johnson to throw to. Pettigrew possesses soft hands and his 6-foot-5 frame makes him a fitting target in the end zone. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect huge overall numbers out of Pettigrew, but they should expect to see him take some trips into the end zone.

Chase Coffman, Cincinnati Bengals (Third Round): No tight end in college football history amassed more receptions (247) than Coffman did during his time at Missouri. Included in those 247 catches were 20 touchdowns, so Coffman clearly has a nose for the end zone. While not a Herculean specimen in terms of measureables, few tight ends in this draft class can match the pliability of Coffman’s hands. Though there are a number of tight ends on Cincinnati’s roster, none have proven to be as adept as a receiver as Coffman can be. He isn’t a proven blocker, so he won’t be an every-down player, but near the goal line, expect Carson Palmer to look his way.

Shawn Nelson, Buffalo Bills (Fourth Round): Like the Bengals, the Bills have a number of tight ends on the roster, but none that can match Nelson’s athletic ability. He has good speed for a tight end, and his hands are equally proficient. Coming out of Southern Miss, Nelson’s handicap is similar to Coffman’s in that he does not have the blocking ability to play every down, but he won’t need to in order to be effective. With Terrell Owens likely getting double-teamed inside the red zone, Nelson should be able to exploit defensive coverages with enough consistency to be on the receiving end of a number of Trent Edwards touchdown throws.

Cornelius Ingram, Philadelphia Eagles (Fifth Round): Only a torn ACL suffered before the 2008 season caused Ingram to drop to the fifth round. The Florida product will have as much opportunity as any rookie at the position because he should be the second tight end behind Brent Celek in Philly. Ingram has the ability to make big plays with his athletic ability, and he is a perfect fit in Andy Reid’s West Coast offense. The Eagles have too many other offensive options for fantasy owners to rely consistently on Ingram to find his way into the end zone, but he’ll still get his share of yards and catches.

With the NFL Draft now complete, analysts across the country will now put on their teacher’s hats and hand out grades to each team. We’re going to go a different way and take a look at some of the fantasy implications of the draft, along with some other thoughts. So, in the immortal words of the Joker, here … we … go:

 - Chris “Beanie” Wells: Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals with the second-to-last pick in the first round, Wells immediately becomes a RB2 for fantasy owners. Edgerrin James seems destined to get cut, and Tim Hightower did little to establish himself as anything more than a decent backup, despite his touchdown vulturing.

- Michael Crabtree: There really isn’t any reason that Crabtree shouldn’t be starting opposite Isaac Bruce in Week 1 for San Francisco. His diva attitude apparently turned a number of teams off prior to the draft, leading to him slipping to the  10th overall pick, but it worked out well for the 49ers and fantasy owners alike. Call him a legit WR3 to start the year, with the potential to do even more.

- Knowshon Moreno: We’re not entirely sure where Moreno fits with the Broncos in terms of playing time, not because of lack of talent, but because Denver has 11 running backs on it’s roster. That number will certainly come down before the season starts, but Moreno will still be sharing time with a number of veterans, and even if he does get his share of the carries,  it’s difficult to envision him as anything more than later-round depth for fantasy owners.

- Donald Brown: This was an interesting selection by the Colts, who certainly had other needs than a backup to Joseph Addai. Still, Addai was a killer for fantasy owners last season, as he had just four games that he averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry (not counting his one carry, four-yard performance in Week 17), and one contest where he gained 100 yards. All this for a guy who was undoubtedly a first-round selection in fantasy drafts. Due to that performance, Brown becomes an essential handcuff, but likely one you’ll have to select a bit earlier than you may truly want to.

- James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga: This is for the IDP owners out there. As the first two middle linebackers taken, Laurinaitis by the St. Louis Rams and Maualuga by the Cincinnati Bengals, each should become immediate starters. We think Laurinaitis could have the better overall value because he has the ability to play all three downs, whereas Maualuga is likely only a two-down ‘backer. But both will have value to IDP owners.

DRAFTS WE DIDN’T LIKE

Oakland Raiders - We’re as confused  as everyone else as to what the hell the Raiders are doing. The knock isn’t on the players they chose. It’s possible Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell become perennial All-Pros and Hall of Fame players. We guess. The issue is that they could have had each of these players later down the line. Especially Mitchell. If they felt that strongly about him, all accounts are they still could have gotten him in the fourth round - and though it would have still been called a reach, it would have been far less egregious.

Detroit Lions - I’ve been on record saying that I have little faith in Matthew Stafford, and greatly prefer Mark Sanchez. In time, we’ll see who develops into the better signal-caller. I dont’ quite understand the selection of tight end Brandon Pettigrew when the team  had such bigger needs elsewhere. They would have been wise to try and trade back and take one of the aforementioned middle linebackers in Laurinaitis or Maualuga.

DRAFTS WE LIKED

- Philadelphia Eagles: Getting Jeremy Maclin to line up alongside DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis gives the Eagles arguably the fastest trio of wideouts in the NFL. Taking running back LeSean McCoy - an underrated back in our estimation - to backup and eventually fill the shoes of Brian Westbrook was a great move, as were the fifth-round selections of tight end Cornelius Ingram and defensive back Victor “Macho” Harris.

- Chicago Bears:  Jarron Gilbert will only help fortify the Bears’ defensive line, as he is a great athlete for a defensive tackle who can get to the quarterback. Receiver Juaquin Iglesias brings a much-needed refined route runner to Chicago, and he was a player who very easily could have gone in the early portions of the second round. However, one of the steals of the draft came in the team’s selection of cornerback D.J. Moore from Vanderbilt. Only his relative lack of speed and height, at five-foot-nine, hurt him. He played offense, defense, and special teams at Vandy, and all he did was produce, with 13 interceptions in three seasons.