Finally!
The melodrama is over. Last night it was confirmed that the Green Bay Packers have parted ways with un-retired quarterback Brett Favre, in exchange for a conditional fourth round draft pick that will adjust itself based on the number of games Favre plays in New York. It will become a third round pick if he plays 50 percent of the team’s plays this season, a second round pick if he plays 70 percent and the Jets make the postseason, and a first round pick if he plays 80 percent and the Jets win the AFC Championship game.
This is the biggest move in Packers history, at least since an early 1990s trade brought Hall of Fame defensive end Reggie White to the city of Green Bay. It’s also a huge move for the New York Jets (think “Randy Moss to New England” huge), and one that deserves to be broken down from all angles.
This is that breakdown.
How the Move Will Affect the Green Bay Packers as a Whole and Aaron Rodgers Specifically
Let’s begin with the Packers because this moves affects them the least, assuming a few things happen. First, I think that a lot pressure has been put on Aaron Rodgers and, whether he admits it or not, his performance this season is going to be heavily scrutinized by fans. Now, this is both good and bad. If Rodgers pulls off a pretty good season (think 3,000 passing yards, 18 TDs, and 14 INTs) he’ll earn the admiration of the fans and most will choose to ignore the Favre debacle that transpired this offseason. However, if the team struggles Rodgers fails, whether due to injury or lack of experience, he will face heavy criticism, along with GM Ted Thompson and Head Coach Mike McCarthy who have stood by his side.
The good news is this: the Packers are a pretty solid football team. Rodgers won’t be relied upon to put up 30 points per game because the defense is good, and he’ll have time in the pocket because he has a great offensive line and Ryan Grant looks very good. Also, he has one of the league’s most underrated receiving corps and one that will prove to be invaluable to him this season. Also, Green Bay’s West Coast-style offense relies on the quarterback to make smart, quick throws. Rodgers is capable of that and his receivers will make it much easier for him.
I think the most crucial thing for Rodgers is staying healthy over the course of the season. I’m sure he’s gone through rigorous conditioning this offseason with the expectation of being the team’s starting quarterback and Brian Brohm is going to be pushing him for the starting role, so there’s competition there.
The bottom line: Aaron Rodgers is walking into the perfect situation, and his composure under pressure will be his greatest asset.
How this Move Will Affect the Rest of the Packers Offense
Green Bay is very solid on offense. The offensive line is the core and it is improving every season, thanks to the bookends at tackle - Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher - remaining the key components.
This bodes well for the running game and Ryan Grant. Grant put up some pretty good numbers last season, despite playing in only half the team’s games. This season he’ll be out to prove that he can do that with or without Favre under center. Personally, I think he can.
Also, the offense is going to revolve around Grant a lot more this season, too. The team doesn’t want to rush Rodgers into his new role as the starter. Plus, a successful running game will open things up for the passing game, making Rodgers duties much less stressful.
The passing game, then, is going to look very similar to last season’s West Coast approach. The Packers are going to throw passes in the 5-10 yard range, expecting the wide receivers to make something happen. In fact, most passes will probably be looked at as successful rushing attempts, based on the number of yards gained. There will be times when the team takes advantage of Rodgers mobility and pushes him outside the pocket and there will be times when the team throws the ball downfield, but Rodgers isn’t Brett Favre, so don’t expect the offense to look exactly the same as it did last season.
How this Move Will Affect the Jets
The Jets were expected to start either Kellen Clemmons - the team’s expected quarterback of the future - or Chad Pennington - the oft-injured interim quarterback. But Favre’s arrival completely turns that upside down.
There is no doubt in my mind (or anyone else’s mind) that Favre will start for the Jets this season. And that means the team as a whole is better because of it.
The running game, led by Thomas Jones, is going to see more touchdowns and perhaps fewer attempts. Jones scored one rushing touchdown last season; expect him to get more red zone touches this season and more scores, thanks to the improved offense. Is he a top 20 running back now? I would certainly draft him ahead of Edgerrin James and perhaps LenDale White, but I’m not sure he’s top 20 material yet.
The passing game, which will be the most affected aspect of this offense, will definitely be interesting to see and the two players who will most benefit are Jericho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles. Both players will near or break previous career highs, especially Cotchery who just might catch 100 passes this season. Favre opens up so many things for this offense, which was once restricted because of lack of experience or talent at quarterback.
Speaking of which, Chad Pennington is going to be released, making Kellen Clemmons the Jets clear backup to Favre. That means a lot of reps during the preseason, as he adjusts to the idea that he’ll be riding the bench throughout the regular season unless Favre does something he hasn’t done since he became a starting quarterback in 1992: miss a game.
Will the Jets make the postseason this season? I won’t be surprised if they do. Favre brings a lot to the table and it will certainly be interesting seeing two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the same division, going head-to-head twice this season. I thin that the Jets now have what it takes to overthrow the Patriots in the division, assuming the defense lives up to its expectations.
How long will Favre be a New York Jet? If things go well this season, he might stick around for one more. If things don’t go well or he becomes seriously injured at any point (think broken bone - but not a finger because he’ll play through that), I think Favre will officially call it a career for the last time immediately after the conclusion of the season. And what a career it will have been.