We’re four weeks into the season, and 28 of the NFL’s 32 teams have played their first four games. There was a lot to glean from these games, and an important aspect of fantasy football is recognizing trends and adjusting to them. This series of posts hopes to shed some light on all 32 teams through statistical analysis.

1) Pressure is affecting the play of Miami’s quarterbacks. Last season Chad Pennington was sacked 24 times. This season he and Chad Henne have already been taken to the turf 13 times, pacing for a season of 52 sacks. It’s led to fewer touchdowns and more interceptions. Pennington threw 19 and 7 last season; he and Henne are on pace for 8 and 12 this season.

2) No one on the team with more than one reception is averaging at least 10 yards per catch. The Dolphins passing game has no punch this season, so even though Davone Bess has 20 catches, he only has 157 receiving yards. And no touchdowns. Steer clear of the team’s wide receivers this season; even Ted Ginn has caught more than two passes in just one game this year.

3) No wide receiver or tight end with more than six receptions this season has a touchdown reception. Ricky Williams and Brian Hartline (who has 6 receptions) have each taken one reception to the house, proving that the passing game has been terribly ineffective this season and is unlikely to improve soon.

4) Ronnie Brown has been a stud this season, especially in the last three games. In that span he’s accumulated 366 yards from scrimmage and over 100 yards in each game; he’s also scored four touchdowns and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. This is shaping up to be another very impressive season for Brown … as long as he stays healthy.

5) Don’t forget about Ricky Williams. The offense has been rolling when running the ball, and Ricky Williams has played a significant role. He’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season, and he has more receptions than Ricky Williams thus far (8-6). He’s also scored a touchdown in three games this season, and has gotten at least 11 touches each of the past three weeks. Overall, his average fantasy points through four games is about 11 (assuming standard scoring).

(Below is a graph displaying Williams’ and Brown’s fantasy production each week of the season.)

The Hype

A year ago at this time you’d call me crazy if I told you this is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. 12 months later and some significant changes have swayed mindsets; Miami is considered a viable contender, and few consider Atlanta’s shocking 11-5 record in 2008 to be an anomaly.

The question is, can both of these cinderella stories repeat in 2009? Is either destined for the postseason? What will head coach Tony Sparano unveil in Miami this season, after turning the NFL on its ear with the wildcat in 2008? And is Matt Ryan ready to take another step forward in 2009, developing into a big fantasy option at quarterback?

This game will answer some of those pressing questions.

When You Look at Miami …

The Miami Dolphins aren’t stunning on paper. Chad Pennington was recycled out of New York last offseason after years of injuries plagued his otherwise promising career. Ronnie Brown is a rare talent at running back, but his health is a question mark; he’s never started 16 games in a single season. Ted Ginn Jr. is the star at wide receiver, but some still question his size and whether he’s capable of being a legitimate red zone threat.

But those guys are all healthy this week.

One factor playing against Miami is the wildcat’s “so last year” status. Defensive coordinators have been writing up plays and studying tape since they unveiled it week three of last season against the New England Patriots. Granted, the wild cat was only use a few times per game last season, but it was often a source of significant success; whether they’ll be helped by it as much this year is up in the air.

Furthermore, this isn’t an offense that put up a lot of points last season. Miami scored more than 30 twice during the season, while being held to under 20 in eight other games. Furthermore, Miami played a relatively weak schedule last season, facing just 3 playoff teams: Arizona, Baltimore, and San Diego. Those three teams held Miami to 10, 17, and 13 points, respectively.

This is not an easy game for Miami. The Falcons finished 11th in scoring defense last season, a number they’re no doubt trying to improve further. Don’t expect Miami to post much more than 20-23 on the scoreboard in this one.

When You Look at Atlanta …

Matt Ryan is the new face of this franchise, the chosen quarterback who made Georgia residents forget all about the controversy Michael Vick brought to the state a year before Ryan’s arrival. He had an outstanding 2008 season, posting enough wins and numbers to garner a rookie of the year award.

Having said that, this is still home to the “Michael Turner Show.” “Burner” posted stratospheric rushing totals last season, falling just one yard short of 1,700 and breaking the goal line 17 times. Jerious Norwood will be healthy enough to change pace for the Falcons, so expect him to get his fair share of carries and, especially, receptions.

The big point for this game — and the season — is this: don’t assume the Tony Gonzalez acquisition is going to result in significantly better passing totals for Ryan; Atlanta is going to run the ball down the throats of every team on their schedule; 35-plus rushes per game is not unrealistic, nor is limiting Ryan to under 30 pass attempts.

After Looking Around …

This is a game I suspect will be won by the best defense and ball-control offense. Neither of these teams turned the ball over a lot last season, but Miami’s run defense is a little suspect. Teams usually passed the ball against Miami last season, but most had some solid success when they kept things on the ground.

In the end, I’ll give the ever-so-slight edge to Atlanta. They’re playing at home and Michael Turner is very fresh; the critical factor will be Matt Ryan’s rate of turnovers. He played like a seasoned veteran for the most part last season, but he’s still very young. Any turnovers the Falcons commit could be the difference in this game.

The Projections/Most Likelies

Sports Data Hub does projections for every game of the season. (Just click this link to find ‘em all — for free!) These are my limited personal projections for this game — if you want to see what my colleagues and fantasy-extraordinaires have predicted, you’ll have to check out the link.

Most Likely to Go Big: Ronnie Brown — No Greg Camarillo means the Dolphins will focus their efforts on running the ball. Atlanta was weak against good running game’s last season; the 1-2 punch of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will hurt them a lot in this one. Expect at least 100 yards all-purpose and a score or two to boot.

Most Likely to Go Home: Roddy White — The Falcons are going to stick to running the ball in this one, especially when they get in the red zone. If they do pass it near the endzone, expect Matt Ryan to target the new kid on the block, Tony Gonzalez.

Here’s a few thoughts on the teams that played Thursday Preseason games in Week 3 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

It is not clear how head coach Raheem Morris is going to leave his mark on this team. I don’t see any areas of emphasis. Overall TB seems to be heading for a repeat of their 2008 performance.  Byron Leftwich looks like he’s got a slight lead for the starting quarterback job over McCown, but unfortunately he looks like the same old Leftwich…clumsy, with a long windup, questionable accuracy, a fumble machine, and injury prone. He didn’t do anything to convince me he’s going to do any better or worse than he has everywhere else he’s been.  He’s likely to be replaced sometime during the season for performance or injury reasons. There don’t appear to be any particular WRs or TEs that Leftwich has as a favorite. Stevens and Winslow have been invisible.  TB is going to stress the running game with the three good RBs in their stable. The coaching staff likes Cadillac Williams better than any of their other RBs….when he’s healthy. He seems to be running well with no lingering signs of his knee injury from 2008, so maybe he’s healthy enough to claim his stake as the top RB.  Not sure he has a lot of value as the top RB of a three headed RB monster though.  Derrick Ward seems to be healthy and likely to contend with Earnest Graham for the #2 spot. Defensive coordinator Jim Bates seems to be having a positive impact on TB Defense, it seems very solid.  

MIAMI DOLPHINS

The offense wasn’t able to do much of anything productive against Tampa Bay. The wildcat formation wasn’t used and the game plan seemed pretty vanilla. Not sure if their lack of success was due to the Tampa Bay defense or Miami play calling. Based on this performance, Chad Pennington seems set for another average season. I don’t see anything that makes me think he’s up for a great improvement or let down from last year. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams look healthy enough to try and match their performances from 2008.  Defense looks ok, but is sprinkled with older veteran defensive lineman and linebackers, which worries me. 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Vick played the second down of the game, so he’s clearly going to be in the mix during the season using him for trick play situations. Most of the downs he played were gadget plays.  McNabb looked fine and is doing a good job spreading the receptions around. DeShaun Jackson looks just as good as he was last year. Very elusive and agile. McNabb seems to like him. Looks like Jackson is going to be returning punts/kicks again this season.  Jason Avant is getting a lot of attention from McNabb too and makes good catches. Westbrook did not play in this game. Not sure how how many carries LeSean McCoy is going to steal from Westbrook, looks like he’s going to be the #2. If Westbrook continues to get hurt, he’s obviously going to be picking up a lot of slack. McCoy isn’t quite as elusive as Westbrook, but he’s pretty good. Eagles don’t have a power running game as usual. Eagles defense looks good as expected.  

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

David Garrard looked like his typical self, but took a big hit and was out for several plays. I don’t expect Garrard to do much better or worse than he did in 2008. Torry Holt is a nice addition to the receiving corps and will help balance their attack, but I don’t think that Holt is going to have a major effect.  MJD is looking ok, but doesn’t seem to be running north/south like he usually does, insteand is spending more time running sideways. I’m wondering if the o-line isn’t opening the holes like they did last year or the year prior. Is their power running game compromised by the o-line play? Line seems to be allowing sacks too. MJD screens were very effective though.  Jags defense looks good, but not great. 

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Marc Bulger did not play (Injured). Kyle Boller started the game instead of Bulger and looked average, but was able to move them down the field pretty consistently. However, I think this says more about the Bengals defense than Boller’s skills. The Rams in general looked flat…the flash of years past is now completely gone.  Steven Jackson only played one series and looked hesitant, maybe it’s lack of motivation for preseason games… Samkon Gado got much more work and looked better. Defense was not good, but seemed good enough to keep the Bengals in check. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Carson Palmer did not play (Injured). JT O’sullivan started the game instead of Palmer and looked mediocre. The Bengals look out of sync on offense with O’sullivan, it might be a long season for the Bengals without Palmer on the field. C85 didn’t have many catches and the WR corps in general were invisible.  Cedric Benson looks quick and is zipping through the holes that the o-line is opening. Never thought I’d say this, but he might be the bright spot on this team. The Bengals defense had trouble stopping Boller, so I don’t have much hope that they are going to put up much of a fight against better teams. This might mean that Palmer may rack up tons of junk passing yards in come from behind attempts all season long….that is if he can stay on the field.

In three weeks, the NFL season will have arrived in full force. Until then, however, we’ll have to deal with exhibition contests in which players that won’t even be on practice squads have a lot to do with the final score. Still, there is fantasy information to be gleaned from these games, so let’s examine the proceedings that took place over the weekend.

Cincinnati 7, New England 6: A particularly meaningless contest that left fantasy owners in the cold about the progress of Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, who did not play due to his injury, most people probably only know that Chad Ochocinco kicked off once and also kicked an extra point. From a fantasy perspective, if looking for a runner to handcuff to Bengals starter Cedric Benson, Dede Dorsey ran four times for 60 yards while Brian Leonard carried the rock seven times for 34 yards, and is considered the favorite for the backup job.

Indianapolis 23, Philadelphia 15: Not very encouraging numbers running the ball for either team, as Eagles rookie LeSean McCoy managed just four yards on five carries, and Colts rookie Donald Brown posting similar numbers with five yards on three carries. Still, McCoy is an absolute necessity as a handcuff to Brian Westbrook, though you may have to take him earlier than you like in order to ensure a spot for him on your roster. As for Brown, he’s a popular pick to become the Colts’ full-time back this season, even with the presence of Joseph Addai. That may be pushing it, but 700-800 yards and five or so scores are realistic expectations.

Dallas 30, Tennessee 10: Most of the news surrounding this game is the hilarious fact that the brand-spankin’ new $1 billion stadium the Cowboys play in has a $40 million scoreboard that punters can shell with the ball when booting it away because it sits too low. Nice attention to detail there. As for game action, there was a lot for fantasy owners to like about what Cowboys gunslinger Tony Romo did, connecting on 18-of-24 passes for 192 yards. On the other side, Vince Young’s encouraging performance in the Titans’ first preseason game gave way to a performance that saw him go 3-for-9 for 33 yards and an interception.

Atlanta 20, St. Louis 13: Michael Turner was in 2008 form, running for 65 yards and one touchdown on the first series of the game before having a seat the rest of the night, so no worries there (except for the Rams defense, which nobody in their right mind would use in fantasy). For St. Louis, wideout Laurent Robinson continues what has been an impressive showing throughout camp with five catches for 65 yards. He’s a decent sleeper choice, and certainly someone to pay attention to.

Minnesota 17, Kansas City 13: So, Brett Favre is back (see his 2008 week-by-week fantasy points in the graph below), and he really showed, well, nothing, completing one of his four throws for four yards. He should get better, obviously, but he’s still a QB2 right now. For the Chiefs, Matt Cassel’s 99 passing yards and one touchdown pass were encouraging considering some have speculated that former Patriot is losing his grip on the starting job.

Cleveland 27, Detroit 10: Matthew Stafford struggled mightily, completing just five of his 13 passes for 34 yards and an interception, taking a step back in the race for a starting gig. Even if he improves mightily the rest of the way, drafting him is a risk not worth taking. The Browns’ quarterback job is still up for grabs, and Derek Anderson showed pretty well, completing 10 of his 13 throws, but also tossing a pick. In the sleeper category, rookie running back James Davis ran the ball 12 times for 116 yards and a score, including one run for 81 yards. Jamal Lewis’s best days are behind him, and Davis is someone who has the potential to eventually get a chance to contribute.

Miami 27, Carolina 17: Chad Pennington was steady as usual, and Ronnie Brown had a nice all-around game, with 74 total yards and a touchdown on 10 touches. Many believe he’s overrated, but with his ability to both run the ball and catch it, he offers a lot of value.

Washington 17, Pittsburgh 13: Two disappointing rookies from last season were notable here. For Pittsburgh, running back Rashard Mendenhall, ran for 5.2 yards a pop, amassing 26 yards on five carries, and is someone that has the potential to unseat Willie Parker. For Washington, tight end Fred Davis was on the receiving end of two passes, hauling them in for 31 yards and a score.

Tampa Bay 24, Jacksonville 23: Running back Chauncey Washington ran the ball four times for 32 yards, making his case to be the backup to starter Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jaguars. Luke McCown threw two scores for the Buccaneers, possibly gaining some ground in the race for the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback job.

New Orleans 38, Houston 14: A solid backup for Steve Slaton has yet to emerge, as Chris Brown ran for just five yards on four carries, and Ryan Moats ran for 25 yards on nine carries.

Green Bay 31, Buffalo 21: It was a so-so performance by Trent Edwards, even though he completed seven of his 11 passes. He only amassed a paltry 45 yards on those throws, and also threw an interception.

Chicago 17, NY Giants 3: Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw, a viable RB3, showed his explosiveness with a six-carry, 54-yard performance. Meanwhile, it was a much better showing for Bears signal-caller Jay Cutler, who was 8-of-13 for 121 yards and a score.

San Francisco 21, Oakland 20: Rookie running back Glen Coffee ran for 129 yards, and has quickly established himself as the necessary handcuff to Frank Gore. Coffee leads all players in rushing this preseason with nearly 200 yards.

San Diego 17, Arizona 6: Cardinals first-round pick Beanie Wells has yet to play in a preseason contest, giving Tim Hightower an opportunity to win the starting job. He didn’t hurt himself in this game, running for 42 yards on nine carries.

Seattle 27, Denver 13: The panic surrounding Kyle Orton should have ceased, or at least lowered somewhat after he completed 18 of his 26 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown, though he also threw a pick. Matt Hasselbeck also looked very good, reminding fantasy owners of what he did two years ago by slinging the ball 23 times with 16 completions for 171 yards and two scores.

This is a continuation and the fourth part of a series of four posts dedicated to quarterbacks. Click to read part one, part two, and part three.

19. Chad Pennington - The rebirth of Chad Pennington’s career was one of the most understated strories of the 2008 season. It was his best season since 2002, when he flashed promise as one of the finest young quarterbacks at the time. Seven years later and everyone has had a reminder of the talent he possesses. Last season was also enough to put faith back in his health, as he finished the second complete season of his career. Miami’s offense gives him the tools to put up respectable numbers, and he provides a high completion percentage without compromising yards. It’s kismet for the two, and a boon for all fantasy players.

20. David Garrard - David Garrard’s 2008 season was perhaps the most disappointing in fantasy football. Despite throwing 210 more passes than the previous season, Garrard finished with three fewer touchdowns and 10 more interceptions. Though the interception total is quite excusable when you consider how impressive it was that he threw just three the year before, finishing with just 15 touchdowns isn’t enough. Fortunately, the Jaguars nabbed Torry Holt this offseason and prospects are forecasts for Garrard predict a rebound.

21. Jake Delhomme - Last season was one of the worst in Jake Delhomme’s career. Thankfully the quarterback has admitted it as such, and everyone is ready to move on with him at the helm. If Delhomme can play as he did in 2004, 2005, or, heck, even 2007 (before his injury), Carolina’s offense can stop relying on 20-touchdown seasons from DeAngelo Williams. Suggesting a return to prominence doesn’t seem out of the question, either. He looked fantastic in 2007 before his season was ended prematurely, and if he can open the season at 100 percent he has the weapons to put up solid numbers and finish as one of fantasy football’s best values.

22. Joe Flacco - Joe Flacco’s 2008 season couldn’t have been much more story book. The rookie quarterback led the Baltimore Ravens as far as the AFC Championship, thanks in no small part to the spectacular defense, and finished as Pepsi’s Rookie of the Year. Fantasy players expecting him to be a crucial link on their rosters may be disappointed, however, since the young quarterback is both (a) in a run-first offense and (b) not quite ready to light up defenses. He doesn’t make many mistakes, but he also doesn’t play the role of the hero. Expecting much more than 3,000 yards and 15 touchdowns would be a stretch.

23. Jason Campbell - Time is running out for Jason Campbell. The Redskins quarterback was the subject of some minor trade rumors this offseason, but putting those aside he hasn’t shown Washington enough to demand a starting role much longer. This will be his fourth season in the league and arguably the most important of his brief career. He was given a lot of opportunities last season with 506 pass attempts. Unfortunately, he didn’t capitalize and finished with just 13 interceptions. He’s a quarterback who doesn’t lose a game by making mistakes, much like Joe Flacco, but he doesn’t have the defense to offer the backbone to support that style of play. As a starter he’s 16-20 and has never passed for more than 13 touchdowns in a single season. At this point he’s on the fringe as a QB2/QB3.

24. Marc Bulger - A lot of quarterbacks have more upside than Marc Bulger, an injury prone quarterback who lost his best wide receiver during the offseason. He doesn’t have any high profile targets, so there’s a fairly good chance running back Steven Jackson will lead the team in receptions this season. Bulger is capable of bringing defenses to their knees, however, if he has protection in the pocket. St. Louis drafted behemoth tackle Jason Smith to improve that facet of the offense, but will it be enough? For now draft Bulger as a QB2 if you’ve locked up a top seven QB1.

The NFL is back. This weekend, training camp got underway for the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles, and during the upcoming week, the remaining 30 teams will begin their preparation for the season. As such, fantasy football drafts will take place en masse over the next month or so. Let’s take a look at the top-30 gunslingers for the upcoming season. For a reference point, the graph below shows the top-15 quarterbacks from last season in terms of fantasy points.

1. Drew Brees: A no-brainer. Brees was the only QB with over 5,000 passing yards last season, and he tied Philip Rivers for the lead in TD passes with 34.

2. Peyton Manning: The epitome of consistency, which is gold in fantasy football. Manning has thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards just one time since his second year in the league, and has never tossed fewer than 26 touchdowns.

3. Tom Brady: A legitimate argument can be made to place him higher, but that 50-touchdown season won’t be repeated, and you have to be at least slightly concerned about anyone coming back from a knee injury like the one he did. Then again, he did have time to recover with a Victoria’s Secret model caring for him, which probably expedited the healing process.

4. Aaron Rodgers: It was easy to overlook Rodgers last season because the Packers were not contenders, but he was fourth in the league with 28 touchdown passes, has a plethora of talented wideouts, and oh yeah, ran for 200 yards, and made four trips to the end zone on foot.

5. Tony Romo: Missing three games hurt his yard total, which is why he was only in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy scoring in 2008, but he was still fifth in the league with 27 scoring throws.

6. Philip Rivers: Rivers likely won’t repeat the career year he had last season, when he found the end zone 34 times, but at least 25 is more than reasonable to expect in 2009.

7. Kurt Warner: Injuries are the biggest concern, or he’d be higher on the list. The 38-year-old played in 16 games last season for the first time since 2001, and just the third time in his entire career.

8. Donovan McNabb: Threw more than 20 touchdowns last season for the first time since 2004, and just the fourth time in his 10-year career. He also had the fewest rushing yards of any season that he’s played in at least 10 games.

9. Jay Cutler: He comes to a new offense, and one that does not have nearly the weapons he had in Denver. That, along with a better defense that will not force him to throw so often, will cut into his numbers.

10. Carson Palmer: A potential under-the-radar pick, Palmer is without T.J. Houshmandzadeh for the first time in his career. Yet he still has some solid weapons, and before getting hurt last season, was coming off three straight campaigns of at least 26 touchdown throws.

11. Matt Cassel: Can Cassel accomplish the same things in K.C. that he did in New England without Randy Moss?

12. Matt Schaub: Fantasy owners are just waiting for him to blow up, as dynamic playmakers surround the former Virginia star. Now, if he can only stay healthy.

13. Ben Roethlisberger: The civil suit for sexual assault is troublesome beyond the scope of fantasy football, but he’s been overrated in that sense anyway due to one big season.

14. Matt Ryan: Ryan should follow his solid rookie campaign with another step forward. Whether it’s a baby step or a leap will help determine how he’s viewed in the future.

15. Matt Hasselbeck: Plagued by a back injury last season, Hasselbeck is one year removed from the best season of his career.

Best of the Rest

16. David Garrard
17. Kyle Orton
18. Chad Pennington
19. Eli Manning
20. Brett Favre
21. Jake Delhomme
22. Joe Flacco
23. Jason Campbell
24. Trent Edwards
25. Marc Bulger
26. JaMarcus Russell
27. Shaun Hill
28. Kerry Collins
29. Brady Quinn
30. Daunte Culpepper

Each season in the NFL, there are players who seemingly come out of nowhere to contribute for fantasy owners. Rookies won’t be a part of this discussion; instead we’ll focus on players who for whatever reason - stuck behind a veteran, injury, or simply mediocre play - haven’t been vital contributors. Keep in mind that there are risks involved when selecting these players, but they are risks that carry with them a chance to pay off.

We’ll go division-by-division over the next couple weeks, starting with the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills - James Hardy: At the beginning of the movie My Cousin Vinny, there’s a scene in which Vinny (Joe Pesci) and Mona Lisa (Marisa Tomei) walk into a diner and look at the the menu, which consists of just three things: Breakfast, Lunch, and Dinner. To which Vinny says, “Guess I’ll have the Breakfast.” That’s pretty much how I feel in picking a Bills player to break out. Hardy was the team’s second-round pick last season, but managed to haul in only nine passes for 87 yards before tearing his ACL. However, among those nine grabs were two touchdowns, and therein lies his value. Hardy is still recovering from that knee injury, and may not be ready in time for training camp, but he should be good to go early in the season, if not Week 1. It won’t be easy for Hardy to catch, say, 40 passes on a team with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans, but at 6-foot-5, his ability to get in the back of the end zone on jump balls and the like make him a player to keep an eye on when the season gets going as a possible waiver-wire pickup.

Miami Dolphins - Ted Ginn: Fifty-six catches for 790 yards and two scores does not constitute a breakout, at least not for the ninth overall pick in the draft. Ginn needs to step it up to much greater levels this season, his third, in order to justify that lofty draft status. And don’t put it past the former Ohio State speedster. Now in his second season in the same offense with quarterback Chad Pennington, Ginn should have a comfort and familiarity which will allow him to make strides towards becoming the scoring threat he can be. His first season of 1,000 yards is more than doable, and with that should come five or more touchdowns.

New England Patriots - Laurence Maroney: The former first-round pick has never rushed for at least 850 yards in a season, and last year was death to fantasy owners who selected him, as he managed a paltry 93 yards on the ground. Despite the presence of Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris, Maroney remains the most physically talented back on the roster as each of those players are at least 32 years of age. He can catch the ball as well as run with it, as his 22 catches in 2007 will attest, and he’s also been the team’s primary kick returner, so the talent is undoubtedly there. All it will take is for him to remain healthy and in the game, and his numbers will jump. A tall task, to be sure, but a later-round flier on Maroney in your fantasy drafts could net big dividends.

New York Jets - Chansi Stuckey: Someone has to take the place of the since-departed Laveranues Coles, and Stuckey is as good a candidate as anyone. He had the fantasy throngs excited last year when he opened it up with three touchdowns in the season’s first three weeks. Unfortunately, he failed to catch another score the rest of the campaign. But his 32 catches were the third-most among receivers on the team, and with an opportunity to start in 2009, the former Clemson product should far exceed each of his totals from last season.

As we continue our series which looks at the fantasy value of each NFL division’s quarterbacks, we tackle the AFC East, also known as the Home of Brady. But there are some other interesting options as well, so let’s examine the situations.

Buffalo Bills: Lackadaisical is a good word to describe the Buffalo passing offense last season, which came in at 22^nd in the NFL with exactly 190 passing yards per game, and 26^th in the league with just 14 passing touchdowns. Whether it was the fault of quarterback Trent Edwards or the offense the Buffalo coaching staff preferred to utilize doesn’t matter - there was little fantasy value to be taken from that aspect of the team. It seems likely that things will be different this season, now that the Bills have hitched their proverbial wagons to the Terrell Owens carriage. Due to this, many fantasy owners are expecting Edwards to take a step forward in fantasy value. He did post an excellent completion percentage of 65.5 last season, but his touchdown-to-interception rate was undistinguished, at 11 scores to 10 picks. Edwards has an exceptional all-around stable of wideouts to throw to, especially if 6-foot-5 second-year pro James Hardy can become what many believe he can. That said, Edwards is certainly worthy of being selected in fantasy drafts, though trusting him as anything more than a QB2 right now isn’t a particularly good idea.

Miami Dolphins: You think rising from the dead is impossible? Well look no further than Miami signal-caller Chad Pennington, and you’ll be proven wrong. He was tossed aside by the Jets after Brett Favre decided to come out of “retirement”, and the Dolphins quickly snatched him up. Shockingly, Pennington quickly rose to fantasy relevance, starting Week 1 with a two-touchdown, 250-yard performance against his former team. From there, Pennington continued to help fantasy owners, and wound up leading the NFL in completion percentage at 67.4, coming in second in the league with a QB rating of 97.4, ninth with 3,653 passing yards and 12^th with 19 scores. There is little reason to think Pennington will regress this season, but he’s still not in the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks. He’s more like a 1B type of option. Probably not someone you want to simply plug into your lineup, but certainly good enough to utilize on a semi-regular basis.

New England Patriots: He’s back. Though those words don’t excite fans of the Bills, Dolphins, or Jets, they certainly do Patriots fans and fantasy owners. Tom Brady will be back under center, and he’ll surely bring back abhorrent memories to fantasy owners who had him on their team in 2008. His knee injury in Week 1 changed the fantasy landscape last season, and although there was some respite for those who were smart enough to immediately pick up Matt Cassel, it wasn’t the same. One thing people hopefully do not expect with Brady’s comeback is another 50-touchdown season. It’s not happening. That was a once-in-a-lifetime season that won’t be repeated. Yet Brady still has excellent weapons at his disposal, and is a top-five fantasy quarterback, at the least.

New York Jets: Whoever the Jets quarterback is, he won’t be worthy of fantasy consideration. That much seems to be fairly certain. Kellen Clemens and Mark Sanchez will battle it out, with Sanchez presumably the winner. If you’re going to bring up how Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco did last season as rookies in defense of using Sanchez, don’t, as those were far different situations. Both had rushing offenses behind them that were in the top four in the NFL, and though the Jets figure to have a solid running game and Leon Washington had an excellent all-around season last year, remember that Thomas Jones is going to be 31, and Shonn Greene has yet to prove himself beyond one campaign in Iowa. So there remain a few question marks in that area. The Jets also do not have a deep stable of receivers for Sanchez to throw to. Jerricho Cotchery, but beyond that, second-year tight end Dustin Keller is their top threat. There’s something else to consider when talking about Ryan and Flacco - neither had years that would make fantasy owners swoon. Ryan was better than Flacco, with 3,440 passing yards and 16 scores, but neither mark was even in the top 12. Flacco had just 14 passing touchdowns and fewer than 3,000 passing yards, and both marks ranked just 20^th. But those are just two players. There are many more examples of quarterbacks who were top draft picks floundering during their rookie year, even if they went on to great success. Sanchez may turn out to be special, but leave him on the waiver wire during fantasy drafts this year.

Every season there comes a time that it’s a good idea to look at trends developing among key position players around the NFL. Some of these players have great season numbers but have shown inconsistency; others started the season hot but have since cooled; and still others are picking up the pace and developing into quality fantasy starters. This series of posts - between weeks 6-7 - hopes to cover one player from every NFL team who has demonstrated the most interesting trend.

This post examines Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington’s season to date.

Everyone in the fantasy realm knows by now that the Miami Dolphins have taken advantage of Ronnie Brown’s versatility, leading him to score 6 touchdowns (plus another TD pass) in the Dolphins past three games. But perhaps overlooked is Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington, who has also looked impressive as he has adapted and to find his comfort zone in Miami’s offense.

The 32-year old Pennington started hot with the ‘Phins week one, passing for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns in a losing effort against the Jets. Then week two he appeared to struggle a bit, completing just half his passes and throwing for 112 yards and no touchdowns.

But in his past three starts, Pennington has looked very, very good. Though he didn’t complete a touchdown pass week three against the Dolphins upset at New England, he did put together a pretty good overall day, throwing for 238 yards and completing 85 percent of his passes. And since the Dolphins week four bye he’s put up better fantasy numbers in each of the past two games against pretty good franchises. Playing at home against the Chargers he passed for 228 yards and a touchdown, completing 75.9 percent of his passes, and a week later at Houston he completed 76 percent of his attempts for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns.

In other words, Pennington has passed for at least 225 yards in each of his past three starts; he’s had a passer rating well over 100 in each of those games, completing over 78 percent of his pass attempts; and he’s thrown three touchdowns in his past two starts. Even though it’s easy to overlook Pennington because of the fantastic season Ronnie Brown is having, don’t make the mistake; he’s playing some very good football right now, and he only appears to be getting better.

In recap, here are the key points:

• Pennington has been very effective passing the football (over 75 percent of his attempts were completed in his last three starts)
• He’s thrown for 225+ yards in four of five games this season
• He’s thrown three touchdowns in the Dolphins last two games

Last season’s worst team, the Miami Dolphins are looking for better luck this season. The team acquired Bill Parcells as the VP of Football Operations and Chad Pennington to spearhead the offense. So far the results have been mixed. Check out the ten things you ought to know about the team this season.

1. 32-year old quarterback Chad Pennington has a 87.9 quarterback rating this season, with two touchdowns and an interception. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found the endzone with one of his passes since week one. On the same token, he hasn’t thrown an interception since then, either.

2. Is Miami’s offensive line getting better? After allowing Pennington to get sacked four times week one, the line protected him well enough week two that he was sacked just twice. And in week three’s win over the Patriots, New England’s pass rush failed to tackle him.

3. Look at the numbers Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have put up this season and you might be fooled into thinking they’ve been among the best in the league. Both have yard per carry averages above 4.0 (Brown has a 4.7) and Brown has rushed for five touchdowns. In three games? That’s impressive. Unfortunately, two-thirds of the players’ yards came week three in the rout over New England. Between the first two weeks of the season, the two combined for exactly 100 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown on 38 carries - that’s a 2.5 yard per carry average.

4. Of course, I should point out that Brown was absolutely unstoppable against the Patriots. He finished with 113 yards and four rushing touchdowns on 17 carries. That’s an average of one touchdown per 4.25 carries and 6.6 yards per carry. He also threw a touchdown pass, just for good measure, effectively making himself a crucial part of Miami’s five touchdowns.

5. Talk about trying to spread the ball around; Chad Pennington has thrown 53 completions this season and no one on the team has caught more than 11. In other words, no one player has caught more than 20 percent of his passes. Four wide receivers have at least eight receptions, as well.

6. Ted Ginn Jr., who has started all three games for the Dolphins, is tied for third on the team in receptions and is fourth in yards. Among wide receivers with more than four receptions, he is the only one to have a yard per catch average below 13. He averages 9.4 yards per reception and has yet to catch a touchdown pass this season.

7. No team has kicked fewer field goals than the Miami Dolphins. Kicker Dan Carpenter is 2-for-2 this season, his longest being a 39-yarder that came in the win over New England. He is also 8-for-8 in extra points and is tied for 14th in that category.

8. The Dolphins defense is middle-of-the-pack in most categories, but it has been especially vulnerable against the pass. In the first two weeks of the season - against Brett Favre and Kurt Warner - the defense allowed a combined 554 passing yards and 5 touchdowns, while forcing zero interceptions in the two losses.

9. The Dolphins also have just eight passes defensed in the first three weeks of the season. Consider the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers the median in this case (they rank 15th): they have 21 passes defensed, or 13 more. The Dolphins rank last in the NFL in this category (though it does include teams with four games played). Even if the team would continue this pace and break up three passes in its next game, it would still rank 27th.

10. The Dolphins are on pace to finish with four times as many wins as they had last season … and a point differential that is 168 points closer to the positive.