1. The 49ers’ offensive line cannot create any running lanes.  Frank Gore only ran for 32 yards on 13 carries vs. Houston and he was often stuffed at the line of scrimmage-a sure indication of a poor run-blocking unit.  Some people may ask the question, “How did Gore run for 200 yards vs. Seattle?”  Well that was entirely Gore’s efforts (and Seattle’s lack of effort) as his two big runs were due to poor angles by the Seattle free safety.  What should have been eight yard runs turned into 80 yards runs because the safety was undisciplined.  If you take away those two plays, Frank Gore only has one rush of over 10 yards this season in 50 attempts.  With the insertion of Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree into the starting lineup the 49ers may turn to a more pass-friendly offense which will hurt Gore’s stock even more.
2. You can blame the Packers’ O-line for Greg Jennings lack of production.  Since Aaron Rodgers is not getting much time in the pocket due to the oncoming rush, the Packers have almost eliminated Rodgers’ 7-step dropbacks.  Those are the plays that Rodgers and Favre hooked up with Jennings with for many of his 21 touchdowns over the last two years.  Since there’s not much time for Rodgers to allow his WRs to run deep routes, the Packers have gone to a true west-coast offense which specializes in short-to-intermediate routes and running after the catch.  That makes Donald Driver the de facto #1 receiver in Green Bay as YAC is pretty much the only statistic that he beat Jennings in over the last two seasons.
3. LaDainian Tomlinson better not say a peep if he’s pulled during a goal line situation again.  A week after LT displayed his frustration on the sideline after being replaced by Darren Sproles during a goal-to-go situation, LT failed to score on all nine of his attempts inside the seven yard line vs. Kansas City.  For the season, Tomlinson has only scored one TD on 14 attempts inside the 10 yard line.  Even in 2008’s “down year” LT had more success as he scored 7 TDs in 25 attempts within the 10 yard line.
4. Sam Aiken, not Julian Edelman, is the Patriots’ #3 wide receiver.  Even though Edelman has more receptions and yards than Aiken, it’s only because he received more opportunities to play when Wes Welker was injured.  Both Welker and Edelman are slot receivers so Edelman naturally advanced to Welker’s slot position when he went down earlier in the year.  Aiken has assumed Joey Galloway’s old position of flanker and even when Edelman returns from his arm injury, he will likely only play when Welker needs a rest or in four-wide sets.  Although Aiken is third in the pecking order among Patriots’ wide receivers, this position has traditionally been very productive as former Patriots Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney combined for 1600 yards and 10 TDs in 2007 and 2008.
5. The Bears are definitely a pass-first team now and it’s not only because they have Jay Cutler at QB.  The offseason addition of LT Orlando Pace and promotion of RT Chris Williams changed the culture of this Bears’ offense.  Williams is a finesse (pass) blocker and Pace no longer has the acceleration to get to the second level to block LBs.  Also, Greg Olsen has replaced Desmond Clark as starting tight end and while no doubt Olsen is the better receiver, Clark is by far the better run-blocker.  The numbers don’t lie: through six games Matt Forte has 35 fewer carries than what he has through the first six games in 2008.  These changes in mentality and personnel may ultimately make this Bears team better than last year’s, but it may also make Matt Forte a fantasy bust relative to the position he was drafted.
6. The Dolphins wide receivers scare absolutely no one and Tony Sparano does not seem to notice it.  After running for 80 yards and 3 TDs on his first nine carries, Ricky Williams touched the ball only one more time in the game-and it was on a reception.  Instead, Sparano had his QB who had started all of 2 career games throwing to the likes of Ted Ginn, Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo, and Brian Hartline-none of whom are over 6’1” or weigh more than 190 lbs.  Ginn looked particularly bad while dropping two passes and has yet to show that he’s anything more than a return specialist, and he doesn’t even do that well.  Hopefully Sparano will notice what got him the 21 point lead and go back to doing more of that.  In the two games Henne has won, the rushing attempts outnumbered the passing attempts 81-48.  In the loss to the Saints Henne threw 36 times compared to 30 rushing attempts (25 by Brown and Williams).  With a rematch with the Jets ahead, expect to see more of Ricky and Ronnie and less of the Ginn Man.
7. Jeff Reed can’t tackle.  ‘Nuff said

Everyone’s making their lists of matchups for the opening weekend so I decided to make one of my own.  Here is a listing of the best matchups for team defenses (special teams not included).

1. Baltimore vs. Kansas City – Any time a top-5 defense faces off against a bottom-5 offense, the D is a must start.  But what makes Baltimore #1 is the fact that in 2008 the Ravens had the lowest average opponent QB rating at 60.6 and everyone knows how much Todd Haley likes to throw the ball.  Expect plenty of interceptions thrown by Matt Cassel and because of his sprained MCL limiting his mobility, also expect multiple Ravens sacks.
2. Minnesota vs. Cleveland – Another top D vs. bottom O matchup.  If Brady Quinn only completed 50.6% of his passes against Denver, Buffalo, and Houston then how will he do against a legit defense like Minnesota?  The Williams Wall will be eligible to play and that all but shuts down any attempts for Cleveland to establish a running game.
3. San Diego vs. Oakland – I don’t think people realize how vital Shawne Merriman is to his defense.  He goes beyond just sacks-his presence forces the offensive coaches to gameplan around him and the double teams he attracts allows for easier one-on-one matchups for guys like Shaun Phillips and Luis Castillo.  There’s also the little fact that JaMarcus Russell has historically struggled against San Diego.  In his three games vs. the Chargers Russell has thrown four interceptions, lost three fumbles, and been sacked 11 times.
4. New England vs. Buffalo – This isn’t based so much on Dallas’ D as it is on Buffalo’s O.  The Bills have looked horrible on offense this preseason and their O-line has zero players starting in the same position that they played in last season.  Marshawn Lynch being suspended certainly won’t help the running game either.  As for the Richard Seymour trade, I think it may galvanize the team and especially the D-linemen.  For the past week they’ve had to listen to everyone say how great Seymour was for the Patriots and he was the main reason for their defensive success.  That kind of chatter usually fires up the guys who played alongside a departed player and the Patriots will be ready to go Monday night.
5. Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee – I’ll say that I think Pittsburgh will finish the season as the top ranked season but I have them at #5 for this week because of the previous success that Tennessee has had against the Steelers.  Last year Tennessee was the only team to put up more than 300 yards of total offense and score at least 30 points against Pittsburgh.  While I don’t think the Titans will do either of those on Thursday night, what they will do is protect Kerry Collins.  Part of the reason Pittsburgh is so great on defense is because of their pass rush, but Tennessee’s O-line negates that great pass rush.  Pittsburgh was second in the NFL in sacks last year while Tennessee had the fewest sacks allowed.  This combination lends itself to a low-scoring, low-turnover game that will come down to field goals.
6. NY Giants vs. Washington – In 2008 Washington managed only 14 points against New York.  Now the Giants get back their best pass rusher and also added quality depth to their entire front seven.  However, many of their players will not be at full strength.  MLB Antonio Pierce is dealing with a sore foot and a little thing called Father Time.  Despite being only 30, Pierce’s play has slipped since he lined up for the Redskins and his first couple of years in New York.  Also OLB Michael Boley is suspended for this game and CB Aaron Ross may not play due to hamstring issues.  Despite all of that, the Giants ferocious pass rush will get to Campbell and force him into a mistake or two.
7. Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh - Even with the loss of Albert Haynesworth, this team will still be a top-10 defense.  The Titans have Giant-esque depth on their D-line and had six players with at least 3.5 sacks last season, not including Big Albert.  They got to Roethlisberger five times last season and Michael Griffin also had two picks.  While neither of those is likely to happen in this game, I do expect this to be a very physical game and no one usually associates the phrase “physical game” with a lot of points.  Even if they lose the game, Tennessee is still a safe defense to employ this week.
8. Dallas vs. Tampa Bay – Dallas had more sacks than anyone last year, so why do I don’t have them higher up?  Because the Bucs run-heavy offense won’t allow many pass rushing opportunities.  I do think the Bucs will have success against the Cowboys’ defense but only in yards and not in points.  So if your scoring format penalizes you for yards allowed, then Dallas may not be a good play.  But if you’re looking for a defense that won’t allow a touchdown and may get a sack or two, then the Cowboys are a safe pick.

Here’s a few thoughts on a few more teams from the Saturday games.

ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons offense looked very good with a nice balance of rush and pass. The Chargers we’re not able to stop them driving down the field.  Matt Ryan looked good, ready for the season already. Calm, cool, and collected.  Michael Turner looked very good, with good holes to run through. Norwood got creamed while making a catch. Tony Gonzalez looked good and had a few receptions. Roddy White looked good with a couple long receptions. Michael Jenkins looked ok, not a lot of touches.  Atlanta defense looked good, but not great against the Chargers. Atlanta is effective on all out blitzes, sacking Rivers several times.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers offense was not fully complete, with many of the starters sitting this game out. LT did not play. Antonio Gates did not play.  Philip Rivers looked good with accurate throws and some long bombs. O-line is giving him good time to throw.  Darren Sproles looked great as usual…running with speed and power. He found plenty of running room and holes to run through. It’s amazing how he makes yards after catch/contact.  Chargers screen passes are deadly. Vincent Jackson looked good with several long catches and a spectacular one handed catch.  Malcolm Floyd had a nice long catch, but aggravated his sore ribs.  Chargers defense looked good, but not great. Could not consistently stop the Falcons running game.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs got off to a rough start. The o-line is not doing a good job of pass protection. They are still shuffling o-linemen. The lack of time in passing situations resulted in a sack of Matt Cassel where he got his left knee twisted and he hobbled off the field and did not return. Tyler Thigpen stepped in to replace Cassel.  Tyler Thigpen is just not very good.  Larry Johnson is looking good, but not sure the o-line is going to give him enough running room to do well inside. He had to bounce outside (not his strength) to find any room to run.  Jamaal Charles is very quick and looks good as a change of pace back to compliment LJ. He’s dangerous in draw plays and screens. Dwayne Bowe didn’t get a lot of touches early, but gained more as the game went on.  Chiefs defense looks decent, but not great.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks don’t look like they are in sync yet. Drives are somewhat awkward and not sustained. Matt Hasselbeck looks ok.  Julius Jones is having trouble finding running room inside… o-line is not busting big running lanes for him.  TJ Houshmanzadeh looks good, but didn’t get a lot of touches.  Nate Burleson looks healthy, made a couple good catches. Overall a pretty blah performance.  Seahawks defense is decent, good enough to give Tyler Thigpen problems, which isn’t saying much.

Our series on potential breakout players in each division makes its way to the AFC West. Mediocrity reigned in the West in 2008, as no team had a record better than 8-8. Both Denver and San Diego managed that mark, with the Chargers being the playoff representative of the division. Each squad will be looking to improve in 2009, with the help of a few players who could come into their own, making an impact not only on their teams, but on those of fantasy owners as well. A look now at some candidates to break out.

Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton: Speaking of sheer averageness, Orton has been just that as a quarterback in his four seasons in the NFL, throwing a total of 30 touchdowns and 27 interceptions while completing just over 55 percent of his passes. But last season, he showed fantasy owners a glimmer of his potential, with 18 touchdown passes to 12 picks and nearly 3,000 passing yards. Yet most of his damage was done in the season’s first seven contests, as he threw 10 scores and was intercepted only four times to go with four games of at least 265 passing yards. He got injured shortly after that, which caused him to miss one game. Then, in his final eight games, only twice did he accumulate more than 200 passing yards while tossing eight touchdowns and eight picks. But being traded to Denver should only help the former Purdue star. He goes to an offense led by head coach Josh McDaniels, who helped mold Matt Cassel into a productive player last season in New England, and the weapons around Orton are superior to what he was working with in Chicago. He’s not a QB1 for fantasy owners, but there are far worse options to have as backups.

Kansas City Chiefs - Jamaal Charles: At this point, if you believe that running back Larry Johnson will stay healthy for 16 games, you probably also believe North Korean leader Kim-Jong Il shot five holes-in-one the first time he ever played golf, as he has claimed. Which leads us to Johnson’s backup in former third-round pick Charles. Last season, he ran for over 350 yards and averaged 5.3 yards per carry, but he’s most proficient in the passing game, as he was fourth on the team with 27 receptions and 272 yards (see graph). New Chiefs head coach Todd Haley threw the ball to his running backs often last season as Arizona’s offensive coordinator, as Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower and J.J. Arrington combined to catch 75 passes. So even during the games Johnson is healthy, Charles is a threat out of the backfield. If you do decide to select Johnson, Charles is an essential handcuff, but considering selecting him even if, like many others, you decide Johnson isn’t worth the hassle.

Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell: Alright, so putting someone here who was the first overall pick isn’t exactly going out on a limb. Granted. But the guy hasn’t lived up to that billing just yet. Still, Russell finally showed some signs of life at the end of last season, when in his last three games the former LSU gunslinger threw for 626 yards, six touchdowns and two picks while completing 63 percent of his passes. And though there is reason to be skeptical - a shoddy offensive line, unproven receivers - Russell has a huge arm and can do what the Raiders have said they will ask of him (via orders by the Crypt Keeper, Al Davis), which is throw deep. So maybe, just maybe, this is the year he puts it all together.

San Diego Chargers - Craig “Buster” Davis: On a team laden with proven veterans on offense, choosing a candidate to break out was fairly simple because the options were few. So we turned to Davis, the team’s first-round pick in 2007 who has just 24 career catches to his name. Only four of those receptions came last season as he injured his groin and failed to play in a contest after Week 5. But he’s 6-foot-1 and possesses good speed and athleticism, and could force his way into the lineup if he plays to his capabilities. Yet Davis’ health has been an issue since his days at LSU, so any hope of him breaking out rests on the fact that he actually, you know, gets on the field. If so, his dynamic abilities should shine.

Here’s a summary of my thoughts watching the first half of the Seattle Seahawks vs San Diego Chargers pre-season game in week 3.

SEA

* Charlie Frye QB: Looked average.
* Julius Jones RB: Looks very good.
* Nate Burleson WR: Looked ok. TD.
* O-line: Run blocking good. Pass blocking good.

SD

* Phillip Rivers QB: Looked good.
* Darren Sproles RB: Looked great. TD
* Jacob Hester RB: Looked flat.
* Chris Chambers WR: Looked ok.
* O-Line: Run blocking very very good. Pass blocking good.