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Posts Tagged ‘Chris Wells’

Ouch! Training Camp Injury Update

Monday, August 10th, 2009

NFL players get hurt in training camp. It’s as predictable as death, taxes, and celebrity sex tapes. There’s nothing anybody can do about it, so the best way for fantasy owners to deal with the maladies is to gather as much information as possible and decipher what it means. Let’s do just that with some of the latest injury news.

Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams: The second-year pro has a stress fracture in his left foot, and is said to be out 4-6 weeks. This is a dangerous injury, because it can be difficult to know when a stress fracture is fully healed. Avery could very well miss the opening few weeks of the regular season. As such, bump him down a few notches on your WR cheat sheets. He was also hurt last season in training camp, so the “injury prone” label is quickly coming. You can move the likes of Keenan Burton, Laurent Robinson and Ronald Curry up your rankings if you wish, but their fantasy value will ebb once Avery comes back, and it wouldn’t be high enough to make them draftable in anything but deep leagues anyway.

Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals: Wells is not practicing with Arizona, as he recovers from an ankle malady. Injuries were the knock on him coming out of Ohio State, and it took him no time at all to get hurt in training camp, which isn’t a good sign. If Wells continues to miss a significant amount of time, it will help Tim Hightower snatch the starting job at running back. Hightower failed to capitalize on the opportunity last season, as you can see in the graph to the right which shows his rushing yards per game, but he is a good receiver and will get in the end zone a number of times. Still, be careful making him anything more than a RB3.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions: Johnson jammed his right thumb over the weekend, and had a temporary cast on it. X-rays revealed nothing major, but the Lions can ill afford to lose their most talented player, so he’ll have more tests done on it. This simply sounds like the Lions being overly cautious early in camp with their best player, so fantasy owners should continue taking Johnson with confidence.

Ben Utecht, TE, Cincinnati Bengals: Utecht may miss the season after suffering a concussion. He’ll meet with neurologists to discuss his future over the next couple days. While not a prolific player, Utecht could have mustered some fantasy value with the return of Carson Palmer this season to Cincy’s offense. Should Utecht miss the year, the fantasy value of Robert Royal and Chase Coffman goes up, especially in Coffman’s case. He struggles blocking, but is an excellent receiver who can catch anything thrown to him, and if Utecht is gone, Coffman is guaranteed to see more playing time, and should be moved up a number of notches on your TE rankings.

Ranking the Top-50 Running Backs

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

After recently unveiling the top-25 quarterback rankings, it’s time to move on to the most important position in fantasy football: running back. Due to its vital nature, we’re going much deeper with the quarterbacks, taking a look at the top-50 runners.

1. Adrian Peterson: An across-the-board choice for most as the No. 1 back, nobody will be surprised if he puts together the sixth season ever of at least 2,000 rushing yards. As it is, his 1,760 rushing yards last season ranked 21st in history in a single season.

2. Michael Turner: Turner’s 376 carries last season are a bit of a concern to some. Outside of that, there’s little reason to think he won’t be good for double-digit touchdowns once again.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew: His first season without Fred Taylor promises to be a big one for the diminutive back. Among backs with at least 150 carries, only DeAngelo Williams and Brandon Jacobs averaged fewer carries per touchdown than MJD’s mark of 16.4.

4. Matt Forte:A major find as a rookie, he did it all for the Bears a year ago. As the graph below shows, he was fifth in fantasy points with 12 total touchdowns and over 1,700 total yards. He ran for just 3.9 yards-per-carry last season, but that number should improve with an opened-up passing game led by Jay Cutler.

5. Steven Jackson: Should he stay healthy all season, he’s a candidate to lead the league in all-purpose yards, and lead fantasy backs in scoring. There’s precious few other offensive options in St. Louis, so Jackson should see more than his share of touches.

6. Chris Johnson: LenDale White won’t continue to take every goal-line carry from Johnson, who still ran for nine scores and added one more via reception. It’ll be difficult for him to replicate his yards-per-carry average of 4.9 from last year, but that will be fine if the trade-off is a few more touchdowns from the two-yard line.

7. DeAngelo Williams: Twenty touchdowns isn’t happening again; that was a one-time shot. Jonathan Stewart should continue to evolve and steal some of those scores, but even so, Williams has proven throughout his career to be dynamic with the ball in his hands and should surpass 10 scores yet again.

8. LaDainian Tomlinson: Reports of his demise have been somewhat exaggerated. No, he isn’t going to score you 31 total touchdowns like he did in 2006. But even if he gets 8-10, with 1,400 combined rushing and receiving yards, is that so bad?

9. Marion Barber: The Barbarian is more than just a bruiser, as he also has soft hands which helped him grab 52 passes in 2008. However, fantasy owners probably better remember his untimely injury situation last season which helped him amass a total of two fantasy points from Weeks 14-16. That was simply bad luck, and had it come in Weeks 4-6 instead, we’re not talking about it.

10. Steve Slaton: The Texans were criticized for taking Slaton in the third round because the rest of the world figured he was too small to be an every-down back. Whoops. He proved everyone wrong with nearly 1,700 total yards and 10 scores.

11. Clinton Portis: It seems as if Portis has been in the league forever, but he’ll only be 28 when the season starts. He’s one of the more reliable players in fantasy, having played fewer than 15 games just twice in his seven seasons.

12. Brandon Jacobs: A bulldozer who is one of the most enjoyable players to watch, Jacobs is also enjoyable to have on your fantasy team. Inside the five-yard-line, good luck stopping him.

13. Frank Gore: With 49ers head coach Mike Singletary vowing a renewed faith in the running game in San Francisco, Gore and his fantasy owners should be the beneficiary. This is especially true if the rookie Glen Coffee - reach in the third round - can’t become a dependable backup.

14. Brian Westbrook: The single scariest player in all of fantasy football, Westbrook’s injury history is far too checkered to ignore. He’s already getting over an ankle injury that has him missing reps in training camp.

15. Ryan Grant: Grant disappointed last season by scoring just four rushing touchdowns. That’s not the production fantasy owners were expecting, especially because he was ninth in the league with over 1,200 rushing yards last season. He should rebound somewhat, but don’t be totally shocked if Brandon Jackson starts to eat up some of his playing time.

16. Pierre Thomas: He’s the best running back on the New Orleans roster, and if sanity prevails, will be the Week 1 starter and get the goal-line carries.

17. Joseph Addai: No doubt he busted out for fantasy owners far and wide last season. But that just means he should be available in later rounds than usual. With Donald Brown on board, Addai’s 2007 numbers may be unattainable, but he’ll certainly do better than what we all suffered through last season.

18. Ronnie Brown: Brown should take even more carries from Ricky Williams this season, and has the receiving skills to produce more than the 33 catches he amassed last season. Hopefully, he gets the opportunity.

19. Marshawn Lynch: The three-game suspension at the beginning of the year will hurt Lynch, but his ability to catch the ball as well as run with it out of the backfield is too much to ignore.

20. Darren McFadden: If those turf toe issues are behind him, watch out. He’s got all the physical talent to become a perennial top-10 fantasy back.

21. Jonathan Stewart: Inconsistency plagued him last season, and fantasy owners couldn’t know on a week-to-week basis what they were getting. In his second season, don’t expect quite the weekly contrast.

22. LenDale White: Don’t expect 15 rushing touchdowns again this season. He’ll lose some of those to backfield mate Johnson.

23. Larry Johnson: There’s still something left in the tank for Johnson, so don’t count him completely out just yet. His days of being a fantasy stalwart are gone, but he can still be useful to fantasy owners.

24. Thomas Jones: He’s 31, the Jets just drafted Shonn Greene, Leon Washington has made his presence felt, and he’s not thrilled with his contract. Jones will regress more than any other fantasy back from 2008.

25. Derrick Ward: Goes to the Bucs to form another 1-2 punch, this time with Earnest Graham. Look for Ward to get the bulk of the carries for the team, but it’s a question as to how many looks inside the 10-yard line he’ll get over Graham.

Best of the Rest

26. Reggie Bush
27. Kevin Smith
28. Le’Ron McClain
29. Chris Wells
30. Jamal Lewis
31. Cedric Benson
32. Willie Parker
33. Earnest Graham
34. Donald Brown
35. Julius Jones
36. Knowshon Moreno
37. Ahmad Bradshaw
38. Tim Hightower
39. LeSean McCoy
40. Maurice Morris
41. Rashard Mendenhall
42. Darren Sproles
43. Sammy Morris
44. Willis McGahee
45. Fred Jackson
46. Felix Jones
47. Chester Taylor
48. Fred Taylor
49. Ricky Williams
50. Shonn Greene

Top Five Most Underrated Fantasy Running Backs

Saturday, June 27th, 2009

Every year certain players are underrated and overrated, or at least seem to be, and it shows up in how highly they’re drafted. The best place to check up on which players aren’t getting their dues (or are getting a little too much credit) is by leafing (or I suppose “scrolling”) through Fantasy Football Calculator’s Average Draft Position (ADP) list.

I found a lot of players with this issue and took it upon myself to list the most glaring examples in this post. Keep in mind that it is time sensitive because a lot of things will change between now and August or September when most “real” drafts take place. This list will be updated with future posts between now and then, so check back or follow our RSS feed and twitter feed to get the latest.

With that disclaimer in mind, here are the top five most underrated fantasy running backs.

The number in parentheses is the player’s ADP. The number is read as “round.pick.” For example, 3.05 would be the fifth pick of the third round. Got it? Awesomeness - now keep reading.

5. Willie Parker (5.06) - Willie Parker isn’t even being drafted as an RB2, which, in my opinion, doesn’t feel right. He didn’t score a lot of touchdowns and played just 11 games last season, but when he’s healthy he’s always solid. He should break 1,100 rushing yards and 5-7 touchdowns without any problem this season, and I think he’s a very capable RB2.

4. Steven Jackson (1.05) - Okay, it’s hard to argue a top five pick is actually underrated, but Steven Jackson is the exception. He has a legitimate chance to be a top three running back, and in an offense that’s going to focus on running the ball because it flat out doesn’t have a passing game. I love Matt Forte, Michael “Burner” Turner, and Maurice Jones-Drew, but Jackson is just as certain as those players to get a heavy workload and he’s more talented than the group.

3. Clinton Portis (2.06) - Clinton Portis is coming off his best season since 2005 after netting over 1,700 yards last season. He’s easily been a top 10 fantasy running running back the past two seasons, but he’s being drafted as an RB2. Consistently underrated season-to-season, it’s time to put an end to this unfortunate trend by giving him his due and taking him as a solid RB1.

2. Chris “Beanie” Wells (6.04) - The Cardinals aren’t noted for their running game, but Wells is a rookie poised for success. Defenses will be forced to respect the passing game in a big way, leaving the Cardinals, who have a significantly underrated offensive line, to hand the ball to Wells who can work his magic. His availability in the sixth round is great for fantasy players who will get great value out of him.

1. Larry Johnson (5.07) - The Kansas City Chiefs appear to be sticking with Larry Johnson who has kept his mouth shut this offseason and appears to be gearing up for another season with another coach. He still has talent, evidenced last season in the games he played. Weeks he carried the ball at least 20 times he averaged 4.9 yards per carry and121 yards. He also scored four of his five rushing touchdowns in the four games with at least 20 attempts. So, y’know, quick note for new head coach Todd Haley: it’s probably a good idea to give him the ball.

NFL Draft - Fantasy Implications and More

Monday, April 27th, 2009

With the NFL Draft now complete, analysts across the country will now put on their teacher’s hats and hand out grades to each team. We’re going to go a different way and take a look at some of the fantasy implications of the draft, along with some other thoughts. So, in the immortal words of the Joker, here … we … go:

 - Chris “Beanie” Wells: Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals with the second-to-last pick in the first round, Wells immediately becomes a RB2 for fantasy owners. Edgerrin James seems destined to get cut, and Tim Hightower did little to establish himself as anything more than a decent backup, despite his touchdown vulturing.

- Michael Crabtree: There really isn’t any reason that Crabtree shouldn’t be starting opposite Isaac Bruce in Week 1 for San Francisco. His diva attitude apparently turned a number of teams off prior to the draft, leading to him slipping to the  10th overall pick, but it worked out well for the 49ers and fantasy owners alike. Call him a legit WR3 to start the year, with the potential to do even more.

- Knowshon Moreno: We’re not entirely sure where Moreno fits with the Broncos in terms of playing time, not because of lack of talent, but because Denver has 11 running backs on it’s roster. That number will certainly come down before the season starts, but Moreno will still be sharing time with a number of veterans, and even if he does get his share of the carries,  it’s difficult to envision him as anything more than later-round depth for fantasy owners.

- Donald Brown: This was an interesting selection by the Colts, who certainly had other needs than a backup to Joseph Addai. Still, Addai was a killer for fantasy owners last season, as he had just four games that he averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry (not counting his one carry, four-yard performance in Week 17), and one contest where he gained 100 yards. All this for a guy who was undoubtedly a first-round selection in fantasy drafts. Due to that performance, Brown becomes an essential handcuff, but likely one you’ll have to select a bit earlier than you may truly want to.

- James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga: This is for the IDP owners out there. As the first two middle linebackers taken, Laurinaitis by the St. Louis Rams and Maualuga by the Cincinnati Bengals, each should become immediate starters. We think Laurinaitis could have the better overall value because he has the ability to play all three downs, whereas Maualuga is likely only a two-down ‘backer. But both will have value to IDP owners.

DRAFTS WE DIDN’T LIKE

Oakland Raiders - We’re as confused  as everyone else as to what the hell the Raiders are doing. The knock isn’t on the players they chose. It’s possible Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell become perennial All-Pros and Hall of Fame players. We guess. The issue is that they could have had each of these players later down the line. Especially Mitchell. If they felt that strongly about him, all accounts are they still could have gotten him in the fourth round - and though it would have still been called a reach, it would have been far less egregious.

Detroit Lions - I’ve been on record saying that I have little faith in Matthew Stafford, and greatly prefer Mark Sanchez. In time, we’ll see who develops into the better signal-caller. I dont’ quite understand the selection of tight end Brandon Pettigrew when the team  had such bigger needs elsewhere. They would have been wise to try and trade back and take one of the aforementioned middle linebackers in Laurinaitis or Maualuga.

DRAFTS WE LIKED

- Philadelphia Eagles: Getting Jeremy Maclin to line up alongside DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis gives the Eagles arguably the fastest trio of wideouts in the NFL. Taking running back LeSean McCoy - an underrated back in our estimation - to backup and eventually fill the shoes of Brian Westbrook was a great move, as were the fifth-round selections of tight end Cornelius Ingram and defensive back Victor “Macho” Harris.

- Chicago Bears:  Jarron Gilbert will only help fortify the Bears’ defensive line, as he is a great athlete for a defensive tackle who can get to the quarterback. Receiver Juaquin Iglesias brings a much-needed refined route runner to Chicago, and he was a player who very easily could have gone in the early portions of the second round. However, one of the steals of the draft came in the team’s selection of cornerback D.J. Moore from Vanderbilt. Only his relative lack of speed and height, at five-foot-nine, hurt him. He played offense, defense, and special teams at Vandy, and all he did was produce, with 13 interceptions in three seasons.