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Posts Tagged ‘Cincinnati Bengals’

Week 13 Target Review

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

With all games having been played this week, and Week 14 starting on Thursday, it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous week’s NFL action.

- Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: Owens got nine targets last Thursday night in the Bills’ loss to the Jets, but due to the Darrelle Revis Factor (go ahead and steal that name for your band), Owens caught only three passes for 31 yards. He is one of many receivers, both elite and ordinary, who have been otherwise shut down by Revis. But the amount of looks Owens gets tells you that quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is hell-bent on throwing the ball his way no matter what.

- Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons: With Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Michael Jenkins each out last week against the Eagles, the Atlanta offense was focused on two players – White and tight end Tony Gonzalez. And while Gonzalez got a healthy 13 targets, White got even more opportunities, and saw 20 passes thrown his way by Chris Redman. White ended up with nine catches for 104 yards and one score, and with Ryan, Turner and Jenkins all questionable for this week, we may see White get a similar number of looks.

- Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals: The Detroit Lions have the worst pass defense in the NFL, and as such, Carson Palmer made a point of exploiting that match-up last week and threw 14 passes to Ochocinco, resulting in nine catches for 137 yards and one touchdown. No other player wearing a Bengals uniform got more than four, and Ochocinco is now sixth in the AFC, and 11th in the NFL, with 104 targets.

- Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans: While Britt’s nine targets and three receptions last week against the Colts were second on the team to Nate Washington’s 10 targets and four catches, Britt compiled 46 yards and caught a touchdown, while Washington accumulated 44 yards and was shut out of the end zone. And while the catches and yards don’t make any difference, the touchdown does. That’s because Britt has now traversed into the end zone in three consecutive games, while Washington has not scored in that time.

- Wes Welker, New England Patriots: Welker was targeted 13 times by Tom Brady last week as the Patriots lost to the Dolphins, and he caught 10 passes for 167 yards. Welker had more than double the amount of targets as any other New England player, including Randy Moss, who got just five looks from Brady. As an extension of the running game, Welker catches shorter passes, which enables him to catch almost everything thrown his way. With 95 receptions on 22 targets, Welker has caught an excellent 78 percent of the passes thrown to him. Comparatively, Moss has caught only 59 percent of the passes thrown to him, as he goes out on deeper routes.

Other Week 13 target numbers of interest: Andre Johnson, 17; Sidney Rice, 16; Davone Bess, 14; Steve Smith (NYG), 13; Michael Crabtree, Miles Austin, Bobby Wade, 12; Antonio Bryant, Calvin Johnson, 11; Roy Williams, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garcon, Nate Washington, Todd Heap, 10; Santonio Holmes, 9; Josh Morgan, Donnie Avery, 8; Percy Harvin, Devin Thomas, 7; Louis Murphy, 6; Vincent Jackson, 4; Steve Breaston, 2.

$ Fantasy Fallout from Week 10 RB Injuries

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

Week 10 of the 2009 season will most likely be remembered for the Colts-Patriots game and the controversial decision by Bill Belichick to go for it on fourth down.  But there were other stories elsewhere, many of which pertained to running backs.  Five starting running backs went down this past week, some with more serious injuries than others.  I will analyze both the short-term and long-term effects of these injuries as well as fantasy ramifications associated with them.

  • Cedric Benson – After seven carries vs. Pittsburgh, Benson had to leave the game with a hip injury.  Coach Lewis says he will likely be a game-time decision, but Benson has never been praised for his toughness so don’t expect him to carry a full-load on Sunday, if he plays at all.  Expect Bernard Scott to receive the bulk of the carries with Brian Leonard getting his usual reps on third downs.  As for Larry Johnson?  Don’t expect anything more than a carry or two this week and don’t expect many touches for Johnson for the rest of the season.  LJ’s burst is gone and he hasn’t scored a TD or had a 20 yard run since December 2008.
  • Ronnie Brown – Brown has injuries to both his right ankle and foot and with a game on Thursday vs. Carolina, there’s almost no chance of him being ready.  In fact, this is looking like an injury that could keep Brown out for a couple of weeks.  As of Tuesday, Brown was still unable to walk without the use of crutches.  Ricky Williams will definitely see an increase in touches and last week he received his first 20 carry game since 2005.  But someone still has to take over Brown’s role as the operator of the Wildcat; the one who receives the snap and then decides whether to run, pass, or handoff to Williams on the end around.  Look for that to be Pat White who had 45 rushing yards vs. New England, but just one last week vs. Tampa Bay.  White is only worth having on your team if you’re in a two-QB league and he has the potential to rack up somewhere between four and eight points per game over the next couple of weeks.  While that may not be much, I’d rather take my chances with White than with guys like JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn who have COMBINED for one fantasy point over the last four weeks.

RB Week 10 Points

  • Julius Jones – With a bruised rib that’s causing bleeding in his lungs, Jones is unlikely to play Sunday vs. the Vikings and will probably be doubtful for Week 12 as well.  Justin Forsett will get the start and he was impressive last week in gaining 123 yards and scoring the first touchdown of his career.  However, the Seahawks will play Minnesota who is allowing the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.  They have not allowed more than 84 rushing yards to a running back and Ray Rice is the only player to score a rushing touchdown against them.  Nevertheless, Forsett will likely get 18-20 touches and can be used as a flex play until Jones returns.
  • Michael Turner – Turner has the dreaded high ankle sprain which could keep him out a couple of weeks.  The Monday re-signing of Aaron Stecker also indicates that Jerious Norwood may not return this week due to his hip injury.  That means Jason Snelling will receive the bulk of the carries for the time being.  Along with Justin Forsett, Snelling is probably at the top of waiver wire requests for Week 11.  Snelling has impressed when given the chance to do so as he had 129 rushing yards and 1 TD over his last two games.  The Falcons will see a rejuvenated Giants defense this week but the following week they take on Tampa Bay who has the second worst run defense in the league.  Consider Snelling a RB3 for the Giants game but then upgrades to an RB2 against the Bucs.
  • Brian Westbrook – This is the most serious injury as Westbrook suffered his second concussion in the last month.  Though it hasn’t been confirmed yet, it appears that Westbrook may miss the rest of the season.  He’s always been able to bounce back from knee, ankle, and foot injuries but this is something that could affect his general well-being so look for the Eagles to shut him down.  Even though Philadelphia doesn’t like to run the ball, LeSean McCoy receives an immediate upgrade and should be a weekly starter in your lineup.  Fullback Leonard Weaver will also see an increase in touches and he had 108 rushing yards and a TD in the two full games that Westbrook was out.  Also, don’t be surprised if the “Michael Vick Experiment” gets another run as Andy Reid will do everything he can to get his struggling running game going.

8 Tips to Remember for Week Ten

Saturday, November 14th, 2009
  • After Randy Moss, Ben Watson is Tom Brady’s second favorite target to throw at in the redzone.  But Watson does not make for a good play against Indianapolis on Sunday due to the way the Colts all but eliminate the opposing tight end from the gameplan.  They have only allowed one touchdown to a tight end all year and that was to Vernon Davis who leads the NFL in TD receptions.
  • A sleeper defense is the Tennessee Titans.  Though they are statistically ranked last in passing defense, much of that can be attributed to All-Pro CB Cortland Finnegan’s injury.  In the three games Finnegan missed, the Titans gave up 337 passing yards per game along with 12 TDs and just one interception.  They also only had four sacks during those three games.  In the two games since he’s returned, the Titans have collected eight sacks and have picked off the QBs five times during this stretch.  They are also giving up 125 fewer passing yards per game since Finnegan’s return.
  • However, with the exception of Chris Johnson, anyone else on the Titans offense is not a good play this week.  If you had any thoughts of starting one of Tennessee’s mediocre wideouts, this should dissuade you: Buffalo has allowed only a single touchdown to opposing wide receivers.  They prefer to give up their touchdowns on the ground (12 on season); thus, Chris Johnson is a no-brainer and LenDale White is a desperation start.
  • With all the talk about how the Packers’ new 3-4 defense is failing to create pressure, people are overlooking how dominant the defense has been against the run.  Here are all the running backs that have scored a rushing touchdown against the Packers this year: Adrian Peterson… and that’s it.  If you have any of the three Dallas running backs, this is the week to sit them.
  • For those in PPR leagues (and possibly even for those in regular leagues) Chester Taylor is a great play this week.  The Vikings play the Lions who have been torched by opposing RBs in the receiving game this year.  Over the past three games, Detroit has given up 28 receptions, 225 yards, and 1 receiving TD to opposing running backs alone.
  • How good is CB Darrelle Revis?  Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Terrell Owens, and Marques Colston have 105 receiving yards COMBINED while being covered by Revis.  None of the four scored a TD in their game against the Jets and as a team New York is second in the NFL in passing defense.  That doesn’t spell good news for Mike Sims-Walker.
  • Another sleeper defense is the Cincinnati Bengals and not so much because of how they’re playing but rather what the team they are facing is doing.  On Sunday, Cincinnati takes on Pittsburgh, who has allowed a non-offensive touchdown in six straight games.  They have given up two interception return TDs, two fumble return TDs, and two kickoff return touchdowns.  The game that started this streak was the first matchup between the Bengals in Steelers in which Jonathan Joseph had a pick-six on Ben Roethlisberger.
  • For the IDP folks out there; someone who has been absolutely tearing it up with little recognition is Seahawks’ linebacker, David Hawthorne.  Lofa Tatupu is out for the rest of the year and here is how his replacement has performed in his three starts: 33 tackles (28 solo), 3 interceptions, 2 sacks, 1 FF, and 5 PDs.  That’s 16 fantasy points per start!  Right now only two IDPs are averaging at least 10 fantasy points per game: Patrick Willis and Darren Sharper.

Week 9 Review: Targets

Monday, November 9th, 2009

It’s Monday, so it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals: Coles was targeted nine times in Cincinnati’s win over the Ravens this weekend. He came up with six receptions for 72 yards in what was his most productive day in a Bengals uniform. His nine targets tied Chad Ochocinco for the team high, and were four more than Andre Caldwell received. It was the most targets Coles had received in any one contest this season, and tied his total from the last three games combined.

- Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts: Clark had a whopping 16 targets en route to 14 receptions for 119 yards as Indianapolis eked by the Houston Texans on Sunday. Peyton Manning put the ball in the air 50 times during the contest, and nearly one out of every three of those throws was intended for Clark. The former Iowa tight end vaulted to fourth in the AFC and seventh in the NFL in total targets.

- James Jones, Green Bay Packers: With six targets in Green Bay’s debilitating loss to Tampa Bay, Jones now has 11 total targets in his last two contests, which is easily his highest two-game total of the season. Jones collected season highs with four catches and 103 yards in the game, along with a touchdown. With Jordy Nelson out of the lineup, Jones has taken advantage, and now has a touchdown reception in three of his last four games.

- Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins: Bess’s 14 targets were double the amount any other Dolphins player received in the team’s loss to the Patriots on Sunday. Still, he managed just six catches for 56 yards, and his lack of big-play ability is evident in the fact that he didn’t even have the most receiving yards on the team – Greg Camarillo did, with 71, despite getting the ball thrown his way just seven times.

- Lance Long, Kansas City Chiefs: If you haven’t heard of Long, don’t be alarmed; Sunday’s game was just the third time he suited up all season, and just the second time for the Chiefs. He was with Arizona in Week 1 before getting cut. But people will start to hear more about him now, considering the fact that he was targeted a team-high 11 times by Matt Cassel in K.C.’s loss to the Jags. Long wound up with eight catches for 74 yards in the game.

Other Week 9 target numbers of interest: Derrick Mason, 13; Earl Bennett, Casey Fitzsimmons, 11; Torry Holt, Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin, 9; Michael Crabtree, 8; Maurice Stovall, Dwayne Jarrett, Malcolm Floyd, 7; Kevin Walter, Robert Meacham, 6; Chris Chambers, 4.

$ Week 6 Fantasy Football Preview: Houston at Cincinnati

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

Overview

Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans are struggling to get their third win of the season, having neither won or lost consecutive games this season. Their 12th ranked scoring offense has been just good enough to get the team two wins, and in their only wins of the season Houston scored at least 29 points. Already the Texans are three games out of first place in the AFC South while ranking 10th in the AFC standings.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is tops in the AFC North with wins over Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Baltimore the past three weeks. The Bengals are on a hot four game win streak but haven’t won any games by more than seven points. Their margin of victory the past three weeks has been three points.

Injuries

Houston: No major relevant injuries, though DE Mario Williams (shoulder) has been limited in practice this week.

Cincinnati: Carson Palmer (sprained left thumb) is probable.

When Houston has the Ball

When the Texans have won this season their offense has been responsible. In their three lowest scoring games, in which they scored 7, 21, and 24 points, Houston is 0-3.

Their offense is powered by Matt Schaub and the passing game. Steve Slaton and the running backs have been largely unsuccessful this season and rank 30th in rushing yards. No running back is averaging at least 4.0 yards per carry; Slaton and Chris Brown, the two primary backs, are averaging a combined 3.1 yards per carry, and both have just one rushing touchdown this season.

Fortunate for fantasy players that drafted Slaton high, Houston’s leading back is making a significant contribution in the passing game. He is the third leading receiver on the team with 17 receptions for 180 yards and one touchdown. He’s netted 411 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns this season, and in the past three weeks he’s racked up 300 yards and one score. Those are unexpected numbers for a projected first round back, but things could be worse.

Where the team has not struggled for the most part is when passing the ball, especially when Andre Johnson is involved. The Texans are ranked 5th in passing yards this season, and Matt Schaub’s 10 passing touchdowns are enough to tie him for second in the NFL. Johnson is the team’s clear leading receiver with 28 receptions for 437 yards and four touchdowns this season. Most of those numbers have come in the past four weeks, during which he has accumulated 402 yards and all four scores.

The other key contributor to the passing game, tight end Owen Daniels, isn’t far behind Johnson in receptions. In fact, among fantasy tight ends, Daniels is sixth in receptions and fourth in yards. Unfortunately, he has has just one receiving touchdown this season and is tied for 20th in that category. As things go, he’s a lower-end TE1 in many leagues but especially PPR leagues.

Considering Cincinnati’s defense this season, which ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed, Houston should be able to play to its strengths. Cincinnati even allowed an otherwise hapless Derek Anderson to pass for 269 yards and one touchdown two weeks ago. Considering Houston’s passing game, I would expect the Texans to find only mild resistance this week when traveling to Cincinnati.

When Cincinnati has the Ball

One of the biggest surprises this season has been Cedric Benson. Though he was expected to handle a lot of carries this season, few, including myself, expected him to excel to the degree he has thus far. Benson is currently second in the NFL in yards per game and first among backs with at least 50 carries. Furthermore, only a handful of backs (six in all) have more rushing touchdowns than Benson, who has plowed his way in three times.

Well worth noting about Benson is his yards per carry average, which hasn’t dipped below 4.0 since week one, and his relative consistency: he hasn’t been held to under 74 yards this season and he’s scored a touchdown in three games.

When Benson isn’t carrying the ball, the Bengals’ passing game has been erratic at best. Carson Palmer has passed for 1,116 yards, seven touchdowns, and six interceptions this season. The last of those is most important to players in leagues which penalize for interceptions, especially considering he has thrown one or two in four games this season.

Fortunately, in the past three weeks he’s thrown just two picks and four touchdowns, and in the past two weeks Palmer has passed for at least 230 yards. The two weeks prior to that (weeks 2 and 3), Palmer finished with 183 and 185 yards.

The primary beneficiaries in the passing game have been Chad Ochocinco and Andre Caldwell. Aside from those two, no Cincinnati receiver has put up fantasy relevant numbers. Ochocinco has 24 receptions for 352 yards and three touchdowns, putting up solid numbers on a regular basis this season. Caldwell, unfortuantely, has been far from consistent. He’s caught just two passes in three games and six passes in each of the other two; and in the past four weeks his (non-PPR) fantasy points have rollercoastered from 2 to 11 to 3 to 9.

It’s important to note this week that Houston’s defense has allowed at least 24 points in four games this season; the only team they’ve held below that mark, Oakland, averages 9.8 points per game. And on the road this season they’ve allowed 28 and 31 points. Expect Cincinnati to put up one of its biggest scoreboards of the season this week.

The Advantage

Cincinnati, but it may need to score a lot of points to keep up with Houston’s high-powered passing game. The Bengals have struggled throughout the season to stop quarterbacks, and Schaub is one of the best they’ve face. Expect a one score victory for Cincy at home.

Fantasy Booms and Busts

Boom! Cedric Benson is going up against the 26th ranked rushing defense in the NFL. Considering he’s averaging a bit more than 22 carries per game, and keeping in mind that Cincinnati will want to keep the ball out of Schaub’s hands as much as possible, expect another big effort from Benson.

Bust! This probably isn’t the week Steve Slaton busts out of his funk. He’ll probably put up decent numbers — 60 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards — but unless he scores a touchdown, which he’s done just once this season, his final numbers will disappoint again.

Slipping Through the Cracks – a Look at Drop Percentage

Friday, October 9th, 2009

As fantasy football enthusiasts know very well, consistency is a key issue when determining which players to put in their lineup. Match-ups matter, of course, but having a player you know will, if not dominate, at least get you some type of points is vital to having a winning season.

For receivers, that means holding on to the ball once it’s thrown to them. There have been a number of disappointing seasons so far at the position for fantasy owners, and though these players have a lot of season left in which they can turn things around, they’ll need to stop letting the ball fall to the turf to do so.

Pittsburgh’s Santonio Holmes had an excellent start to his season, so he hasn’t been a disappointment in that sense, but over his last two games he’s had just five catches for 70 yards. Maybe one of the reasons for that is that he leads the NFL with five drops. With 35 targets so far this season, Holmes’s drop rate is 14 percent, which is the same rate as Cincinnati’s Laveranues Coles, and only slightly better than Buffalo’s Terrell Owens, who certainly qualifies as a disappointment, and who happens to be dropping 15 percent of the passes thrown to him.

Just below those players are Atlanta’s Roddy White, who has dropped 12 percent of Matt Ryan’s throws to him, along with Tennessee’s Justin Gage and Oakland’s Louis Murphy, who have each let 10 percent of the passes thrown to them fall to the turf. And with a quarterback as god-awful as JaMarcus Russell, Murphy can’t really afford to drop any throws.

Dropping 10-15 percent of your passes thrown to you isn’t good, but it’s not quite as bad as the horribly overpaid Michael Clayton, who Tampa somehow thought was worth $25 million. He’s dropped four passes, and having only been targeted 18 times, he’s dropped 22 percent of the passes thrown his way. Even worse than Clayton, however, has been Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson, who, with three drops among the 10 passes thrown to him, has a hideous drop rate of 30 percent.

Start/Sit RBs: Look No Further than Cedric Benson

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

Fantasy football start/sit is a weekly look at NFL players, especially fringe players, with highly favorable (or unfavorable) matchups. It may go without saying, but if you have a player in the “sit ‘em” list, it isn’t necessary to bench them unless you do have a favorable backup. Same story holds true for the “start ‘em” players: if you have a stud quarterback you might not need to play them this week.

Start ‘Em!

Cedric BensonCincinnati Bengals –  Benson is on pace to rush for nearly 1,600 yards this season. While he not meet that mark, he does face a very favorable matchup this week when the Bengals travel to Cleveland. Benson averaged 4.8 yards per carry against the Steelers last week, but here’s the clincher: Cleveland’s defense has already allowed 553 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns this season. Everything is in line for Benson to explode this week. The graph below showcases his consistency — in terms of fantasy points — through the first three weeks of the season:

Cedric Benson Points

Darren McFaddenOakland Raiders — Darren McFadden is off to a bit of a slow start this season, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and scoring just one touchdown. Fortunately, he faces the Houston Texans this week, which may be just what he needs to get back on his feet. Houston has allowed a league-worst 205 rushing yards per game and 8 rushing touchdowns this season. Considering JaMarcus Russell’s struggles (and apparent regression) this season, McFadden seems like this team’s best bet.

Willie ParkerPittsburgh Steelers — All three teams that faced the Chargers this season — Oakland, Baltimore, and Miami — have successfully run the ball against them. While “Fast” Willie is off to a slow start, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, but last week was his first respectable outing of the season. San Diego has allowed 4.5 yards per carry and a rushing touchdown in each game this season; expect Parker to have his best outing yet this weekend.

Sit ‘Em!

Maurice Jones-DrewJacksonville Jaguars — 119 of Jones-Drew’s 282 rushing yards and 3 of his 4 rushing touchdowns came last week against the Houston Texans. This week he faces a much better rushing defense when the Jaguars face the Titans. Tennessee has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown this season.

Fred TaylorNew England Patriots — Fred Taylor has emerged as New England’s go-to running back and is hot off a 100-yard effort against Atltanta; unfortunately, the Patriots face Baltimore this week. The Ravens’ run defense has been in great form, allowing just 51 yards per game and zero rushing touchdowns.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Game Reviews: Part 1

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Carolina (0-2) at Atlanta (2-0): Atlanta, 28-20

Matt Ryan again showcased his skills as a passer, throwing for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns in a close win over Carolina. Tony Gonzalez remains the lynch pin in this offense and he caught 7 passes for 71 yards and 1 touchdown. His presence has made the offense much more versatile and effective through the air.

Perhaps least surprising was the renewed interest in running the ball this week. Ryan attempted just 27 passes this week, while Michael Turner handled 28 carries and Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood tacked on 7 more. Turner effectively rushed for 105 yards and 1 touchdown to lead the offense, but Snelling took his 6 carries 37 yards, too.

The big stat to take away from this one for Atlanta: Ryan completed much more of his passes to his wide receivers this week. Though Gonzo led the team with 7 receptions, Roddy White caught 6 and Marty Booker and Michael Jenkins combined for 5 more. In all, 12 of Ryan’s 21 completions were to wide receivers versus last week when over half his completions were to Gonzo and the running backs.

Meanwhile, the Panthers slipped to 0-2 in spite of a near comeback. Jake Delhomme was significantly better this week and he finished with 308 passing yards, 1 touchdowns and 1 interception. His favorite target was, not surprisingly, Steve Smith who caught 8 passes for 131 yards in a big performance. The rest of the completions were spread between 7 other players, none of whom had more than 5 receptions. Tight end Dante Rosario caught 3 for 31 yards and 1 touchdown.

But though Carolina was very focused on passing the football, the running game was very effective: in all, the team ran the ball 25 times for 144 yards. DeAngelo Williams led the way with 16 carries for 79 yards and 1 touchdown, while Jonathan Stewart chipped in with 9 carries for 65 yards. Overall, the offense showed much more promise than last week and in a turnover-free game, this will be a tough team to beat.

Minnesota (2-0) at Detroit (0-2): Minnesota, 27-13

The Vikings struggled early on against Detroit and the Lions had a legitimate shot to win the game — and the lead — going into halftime. Unfortunately, Brett Favre’s efficient passing — he was 23-of-27 — and Adrian Peterson’s rushing put the Vikings on top and put the game out of reach. This was the second week in a row that Favre didn’t put up a great yards per attempt average — he only passed for 155 yards — but he’s not making mistakes. This is not the Favre we’re accustomed to seeing and many of his completions are underneath, especially — and this is surprising — to Adrian Peterson, who caught 4 passes for 8 yards.

The emerging star in Minnesota’s offense is Percy Harvin. He accumulated 58 yards and scored 1 touchdown last week, and this week he improved put up similar numbers: 55 yards and 1 touchdown. His speed makes him very dangerous, and his versatility (he has 4 carries for 36 yards this year) will keep defensive coordinators up at night all season.

As for the Lions, Calvin Johnson remains a huge part of the offense. Without him the team would struggle even more than it has to this point. He caught 5 passes for 51 yards and 1 touchdown in this game, fighting for yards and using his physicality to gain a big advantage.

Unfortunately, Matthew Stafford remains an erratic rookie. He only passes for 152 yards, despite 30 attempts, while throwing 2 interceptions to 1 touchdown. Most tellingly, Calvin Johnson was one of just two receivers in this offense to get a catch; the other, Dennis Northcutt, caught just one pass. In other words, about 67 percent of Stafford’s completions are checkdowns. He needs to find his wide receivers if he wants to improve his overall passing numbers.

Cincinnati (1-1) at Green Bay (1-1): Cincinnati, 31-24

In an upset at Lambeau the Bengals managed to contain the Packers offense enough to come out ahead with a win, though Green Bay did have a slim opportunity to win down the stretch. Cincinnati is this close to 2-0 at this stage in the season, and much of the credit must go to the defense. It’s better than most might give credit, and it’s something to keep in mind for the rest of the season.

On offense the passing game was effective, but Carson Palmer’s two interceptions could have cost the Bengals the game. Both were throws he must have wanted back immediately after making them, and in neither case was he under immense pressure. He’s a somewhat erratic quarterback at this point and he probably won’t totally hit his stride for another few weeks. After he does, watch out: Cincinnati has a lot of firepower on offense.

The big key for Cincinnati in this one was Cedric Benson. The underappreciated running back carried 29 times for 141 yards and even though he didn’t find the endzone, he was the key to the Bengals burning down the clock and moving down the field. Palmer passed for just 185 yards, and though he threw all three of Cincinnati’s offensive touchdowns, without Benson’s success the offense would have been lost.

Green Bay wasn’t so lucky. Ryan Grant took his 14 carries just 46 yards, struggling to make an breaks in Cincinnati’s defense. His longest carry moved eight yards and it seemed more often than not he was held at the line of scrimmage or just past.

This issue led to a lot of passes for Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers was under constant pressure for the second week in a row, and in a crucial loss left tackle Chad Clifton injured his ankle. He might not be ready next week, and that will put the team at a significant disadvantage against pass rushers. Unless the team can find an answer to blitzes and powerful defensive ends, Green Bay is going to struggle all season.

Arizona (1-1) at Jacksonville (0-2): Arizona, 31-17

The Cardinals bounced back in a big way this week. Jacksonville could hardly prevent Kurt Warner from throwing an incompletion, and the 39-year old quarterback  completed a record 92.3 percent of his pass attempts. The Jaguars couldn’t pressure him and the defensive backfield was torn to pieces. When the dust settled, the ultra-efficient Warner had 243 passing yards and 2 touchdowns.

In no surprise, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald were his two favorite targets. Boldin led the team in receptions with 8 for 69 yards, while Fitz contributed with 4 for 34 yards and a touchdown. Interestingly, only Steve Breaston — who took his 5 receptions 83 yards — averaged at least 10 yards per catch and caught at least 4 passes.

Last note on Arizona: Tim Hightower (who also rushed for a touchdown) had twice as many carries as Chris Wells (15 to 7) and they combined to average 5.3 yards per carry. In other words, Jacksonville couldn’t stop anything.

On offense, the Jaguars scored 3 points through the first 41 minutes of the game. David Garrard was forced to pass 43 times, and though he had 282 yards and 2 passing touchdowns, it was a struggle throughout. He turned the ball over twice and fumbled three times; not good.

Mike Sims-Walker was the big shocker in this one: the 24-year old receiver caught 6 passes for 106 yards and 1 touchdown. Mercedes Lewis caught the other touchdown and finished with 3 receptions for 62 yards.

Jacksonville’s typical strength — running the ball — had to be abandoned after the team found itself trailing by 14 after a blocked field goal was taken 83 yards by Arizona in the second quarter. When Jacksonville did run, Maurice Jones-Drew was mostly ineffective, carrying 13 times for 66 yards. Though that number looks good at first glance, when adjusting for a 36 yard carry, his yard per carry average is just a tad over two.

The Jaguars must limit turnovers and focus on the run in future games if they hope to have more success on the field.

$ Fantasy Football Preview: Cincinnati at Green Bay

Saturday, September 19th, 2009

The Hype

Chad Ochocinco (I’m already tired of calling him that) has told fans he’s going to do a Lambeau leap if he scores against the Packers. After watching the Bengals and Packers last week I’m not confident he’ll get that opportunity.

Green Bay’s defense was brilliant blitzing the Bears and forcing Jay Cutler into bad decisions and throws that resulted in four interceptions. Prior to that game Carson Palmer threw two interceptions; that evidence alone should be enough to make Cincy fans nervous.

When You Look at Cincinnati …

… you see an offense that needs a better line. Cedric Benson was held to under four yards per carry in spite of a 20-yard carry against the Broncos, and Carson Palmer was pressured into throwing two interceptions and getting sacked twice. Better offensive line play will be crucial to the Bengals success in this game.

The Broncos are not a great team this season. The Bengals had the game won until a miraculous catch by Brandon Stokley put the Broncos up with seconds left on the clock. This means two things: first, the Bengals can stop small ball and prevent a running attack pretty well; second, this offense looked awful when it scored 7 points.

If the Packers play even half as well on defense as they did last week, you’re going to see Carson Palmer under a lot of pressure and forced into throwing passes he shouldn’t. And you’re going to see a very limited running game from the Bengals.

When You Look at Green Bay …

… the offensive line (mostly looking at you, right tackle Allen Barbre) needs to protect Aaron Rodgers better, but the defense is brilliant. The Packers underachieved on offense last week in spite of all the Chicago turnovers. In fact, I’m not confident the Packers would have won last week if the Bears hadn’t audibled to an ill-advised fake punt deep inside their own territory.

The guy to really watch in this game is Ryan Grant. After the Packers established a bit of a running game the rest of the pieces fell into place and Rodgers had more time in the pocket. Grant looked quick and explosive last week in spite of his relatively pedestrian totals: 16 carries for 61 yards. But studying that game it’s important to see the connection between his improvement as the game progressed and the success of Aaron Rodgers. When he came alive in the second half, so did the passing game; expect a good dose of Ryan Grant throughout this game (18-20 touches).

One more thing: Jordy Nelson needs to meet Rodgers after practice to play catch. He dropped two passes last week and finished with no receptions. One of those incompletions could have put six points on the board. In all Green Bay’s offense dropped four passes, something that can’t happen in future games.

After Looking Around …

The Packers need to eliminate blunders on offense, and Allen Barbre needs to protect Rodgers better. Green Bay’s real strength will be its defense and blitzing, so don’t be surprised if Carson Palmer throws at least one more interception this week. The key for the Packers will be taking advantage of any turnovers. Likewise, the key for the Bengals will be to limit mistakes on offense and blitz the right side of Green Bay’s line on passing downs.

Expect the Packers to establish the run game throughout this one while Cincinnati employs a similar strategy. The team with the best offensive line play and blitz protection will win it in the end; that team is probably Green Bay.

Most Likely To …

… Go Big: Donald Driver — He struggled a little last week but his fight after making catches was telling. If he can limit mistakes he’ll be a big target for Aaron Rodgers; expect Driver to improve significantly over last week’s disappointing numbers.

… Go Home: Chad Ochocinco — The Packers blitzed a lot last week and that’s something to expect again this week. Unless the Bengals react well to the many packages Green Bay brings it’s going to be a long game for Cincinnati’s passing game. And Ochocinco is in for a very physical game against Green Bay’s top-notch man-coverage corners, Al Harris and Charles Woodson, especially after he told the media he’s going to do a Lambeau leap if he scores.

Week 1 Reviews: Denver over Cincinnati & New York (Jets) over Houston

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1): Denver, 12-7

Notes on Denver: The Denver Broncos caught a miraculous break at the end of week one as a pass intended for Brandon Marshall was tipped by Leon Hall and caught by Brandon Stokley who took it to the house, 87 yards down the field.

Prior to that pass, Kyle Orton had just 155 passing yards and Denver had zero touchdowns. The Broncos attempted a west coast, short pass offense throughout the game resulting in Orton’s paltry 5.7 yards per attempt (again, prior to that big completion) and limited scoring. Stokley hadn’t caught a pass in the game and, surprisingly, Eddie Royal was held to just 2 receptions for 18 yards.

Another surpise: Tony Scheffler was outdone by Daniel Graham. Though Scheffler did pick up 29 yards on his sole reception, Graham was on the receiving end of 3 completions for 40 yards.

As the running game was concerned, Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno both carried 8 times, Buckhalter getting the most mileage out of his attempts with 46 yards. Moreno finished with a disappointing 19 yards, including an 8 yard run. (Without that run he averaged around 1.6 yards per carry.)

Denver Stud: Brandon Stokley – 1 reception for 87 yards and 1 touchdown

Denver Dud: Eddie Royal – 2 receptions for 18 yards

Notes on Cincinnati: Though the Broncos struggled on offense, the Bengals weren’t any better. In fact, they were worse when you consider Carson Palmer’s two interceptions and zero touchdowns. Palmer was pressured and sacked three times; he finished with 247 yards passing, 89 of which went to Chad Ochocinco.

The Bengals did have a semi-successful running attack, though; Cedric Benson rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. His rushing average was boosted quite a bit by a 20-yard carry in the fourth quarter. Recalculating without that carry, his average was just 2.8 yards per carry, nearly a full yard less than when including it. All-in-all, he picked up 108 yards from scrimmage – a very good week.

Perhaps the most important thing to take away: Benson did get over 20 carries in the debut. Oh, and Palmer is off to another horrendous start against a defense that doesn’t figure to be great this season.

Cincinnati Stud: Cedric Benson – 20 carries for 76 yards and 1 touchdown; 4 receptions for 32 yards

Cincinnati Dud: Laveranues Coles – 1 reception for 11 yards; 3 drops (leads NFL)

 

New York Jets (1-0) at Houston Texans (0-1): New York, 24-7

Notes on New York: Mark Sanchez’s debut was a relative success; he got his first win, but he also completed just 58 percent of his pass attempts and threw his first (and only) NFL interception. As could have been guessed before the game, one of his favorite targets was tight end Dustin Keller who caught 4 for 94 yards. Jericho Cotchery led the team in receptions with 6 for 90 yards, while the only other wide receiver to catch a ball, Chansai Stuckey, finished with 4 receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown.

But the real source of firepower on offense was the running game. Thomas Jones was outstanding and is off to another great start this season after he rushed 20 times for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Jones’ change-of-pace and the “hands” of the group, Leon Washington, carried 15 times for 60 yards and added 24 receiving yards on 4 catches. The two combined for 191 yards from scrimmage and should be an integral part of the offense in every game this season. Rex Ryan wants to run the ball a lot this season to keep Sanchez’s reps relatively low and the offense balanced; this was a great start to that end.

New York Stud: Thomas Jones – 20 carries for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns

New York Dud: David Clowney – N/A

Notes on Houston: Where exactly was the aerial attack we expected from Houston? In fact, where were the points? Houston’s offense was shut out as Rex Ryan’s blitz packages took the Texans by surprise. Matt Schaub was barely able to complete half his pass attempts (18-of-33) while throwing one to the defense. Andre Johnson and Omar Daniels led the team in receptions with four each, but in a twist Daniels led in yards – 44-35.

Meanwhile, the team’s running game was far from impressive. Steve Slaton carried just 9 times to rack up 17 yards while Chris Brown took his 3 carries 15 yards. All told, the offense rushed for 38 yards. Slaton’s saving grace was his contribution as a receiver where he added 35 yards on 3 receptions.

Houston Stud: N/A

Houston Dud: Steve Slaton – 9 carries for 17 yards; 3 receptions for 35 yards