While college football fans concern themselves with who will win the Heisman, how the Rose Bowl will play out, and who will coach Notre Dame next season, fantasy football players are thinking about their leagues’ playoffs. Most begin week 14 and conclude week 16, so if your team clinched you probably have four days to prepare your roster and figure out who’s worth a start.

At this point in the season we know who is performing well and in many cases can determine favorable matchups. Perhaps no one has a more favorable schedule than the Saints, so let me introduce you to one of my favorite picks for the ’09 fantasy postseason: New Orleans’ defense.

Though it hasn’t been an elite unit this season, New Orleans’ group has forced a bundle of interceptions: 23, enough to lead the NFL. Better yet, the Saints have an immaculately easy schedule coming up, a sort of godsend for fantasy fanatics: at Atlanta (6-6), Dallas (8-4), Tampa Bay (1-11), and at Carolina (5-7) to close the season.

Let’s start at the top: Atlanta’s offense was ice cold without Matt Ryan last week, putting up seven points against Philadelphia. Even if Ryan returns, however, don’t expect a comeback performance: last time he faced New Orleans he threw three picks and one touchdown. Oh, and the Falcons have dropped five of their last seven. Expect it to be six of their last eight after week 14.

Next is Dallas, led by a quarterback who scores better off the field than on it in December. Put it this way: when Tony Romo sees a snowflake his own game takes a precipitous fall. Last season the ‘Boys went 1-3 in December, and Tony Romo tossed six interceptions in the three losses. If history is any indication, the only guy who will have a worse month than Tony Romo is Tiger Woods.

After Dallas the Saints host Tampa Bay. If you haven’t watched Josh Freeman this season, let me get you up to speed: he completes about half his passes and throws a lot of interceptions — eight the past three weeks. Likewise, his passer rating has done the limbo in two of his last three starts, dipping as low as 33.1 week 11 — against the Saints.

Finally, New Orleans closes the season against Carolina, another very favorable game. If New Orleans is still undefeated (and they could be), I sincerely doubt they’ll rest the starters. Why kill momentum two weeks before you host a team hot off a wild card win?

But let‘s just assume they do lose a game and decide to rest up before hitting the postseason. Carolina’s quarterbacks have thrown 8 touchdowns and 20 interceptions this season. The offense is the 4th-most fumble-prone in the NFL. All those turnovers have added up to a shortage of points: Carolina averages 17.9 points per game.

So don’t worry about New Orleans resting their starters. And don’t question their potential to win out. Just stock your roster with Saints. It’s good karma.

I wanted to write a column about the Green Bay Packers, and I thought, hey, why not focus on the team’s catalyst, Aaron Rodgers? My stance concerning Rodgers is straightforward: in my mind, Packers fans couldn’t have asked for a better quarterback to replace Brett Favre. Some would argue that Green Bay never should have dumped Favre, especially as Number Four slices and dices defenses with precision not seen since the mid ‘90s, but one would be hard pressed to find fault with Aaron Rodgers.

There are quarterbacks in the NFL who frustrate fans with errant and downright awful throws (*cough* Cutler *cough*) and others who remind fans on a weekly basis that they shouldn’t be starters (I‘m looking at you, Jake Delhomme). But Rodgers doesn’t fit either mold.

First, he holds the ball instead of trying to force it through defenders. It’s a novel idea, especially for someone who was asked to fill the shoes of Favre, who routinely threw 20 or so interceptions during a season. (Coincidentally, I think Brad Childress may have introduced the “don’t force it” idea to Favre this season, too.) Yes, there are times Rodgers holds the ball too long and takes unnecessary sacks. Those losses are critical; often this season games have been decided by field position. But isn’t it great seeing someone throw over 20 touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions? Rodgers has 22 and 5 through 11 games this season. By the end of the year he’ll likely have a stat-line somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-8.

Furthermore, Rodgers is driving the Packers down the field. He can throw the ball deep just as he can hit a receiver on a quick slant. His mobility in and out of the pocket is stellar; he might not be as fast as Vince Young, but he can escape a pass rush or tuck the ball and run as efficiently as anyone in the NFL. He averages 5.5 yards per carry and has scored three rushing touchdowns this season — few quarterbacks can put up numbers like that. Or, more specifically, few can put up those numbers and pass for 290 yards per week.

The one stat against him in his short career is his win-loss record. At 13-14, Rodgers’ winning percentage is mediocre. But even though some fans like to grade quarterbacks by their wins and losses, let‘s talk a little about the defense. Green Bay has scored at least 23 points in 10 games this season. The offense ranks 6th in scoring this season; last season it ranked 5th. The difference accounting for Green Bay’s higher win percentage this season is the defense: it ranks 12th this season, a huge step up from ranking 22nd as it did a year ago.

That said, the defense has lacked consistency. the Packers have only lost games in which their opponents scored at least 30 points. In fact, the average points per game allowed in wins is around 12. In losses it’s about 34.

The point: Rodgers and the offense are scoring enough points this season; they just need to count on the defense to keep opponents’ scores low. That will need to change when the postseason arrives because the Packers will be playing some high-scoring offenses like New Orleans or Minnesota. Both games will (likely) be in domes; Rodgers, per Sports Data Hub, is averaging 27 fantasy points in dome games. He’s passed for around 334 yards and at least two touchdowns in these games. That’s a good omen for Packers fans. The caveat: they’ve only played one “good” team in a dome: Minnesota. They lost.

Speaking of which, Green Bay has only played a handful of potential playoff teams this season: Minnesota (twice), Dallas, and Cincinnati.

The only team they beat on that short list: Dallas, which, incidentally, has only beaten two teams above .500 — Atlanta (6-5) and Philadelphia (7-4).

At the end of the day, the Packers aren’t contenders, at least not in the postseason. The competition they’ll face is on par with the teams they’ve lost to this season. The defense has often struggled against the best teams on Green Bay’s schedule and, when it has, the Packers have unfailingly lost. Green Bay won’t have Aaron Kampman and Al Harris in the postseason; how will they face down Brett Favre and the Vikings or Drew Brees and the Saints? What about Kurt Warner and the Cardinals?

Green Bay is on a three game winning streak, and few quarterbacks look better than Aaron Rodgers. It’s just a shame he and the Packers have lit up shoddy competition while turning in losses against competitive teams. That’s not what January teams do. Not the successful ones.

The Hype

It’s an NFC North matchup a week removed from Detroit’s blowout defeat and Minnesota’s 14 point-victory. Adrian Peterson made the fantasy players who drafted him one overall very happy when he carried the Vikings’ offense with 180 rushing yards and 3 ground scores. But don’t assume drafting Lions was the worst plan: Kevin Smith picked up 72 yards of offense and scored once while Calvin Johnson did what he could, taking his three receptions for 90 yards.

When You Look at Minnesota …

… you see a Vikings offense with untold potential and a defense with plenty to bring to the table. Brett Favre’s numbers weren’t gaudy, but he completed 67 percent of his passes and didn’t turn the ball over. Oh, and he did throw a touchdown pass to emerging threat Percy Harvin in the third quarter.

But as stated earlier, this was the Adrian Peterson circus: dude blew up against the Browns, rushing for 180 yards on 25 carries (that’s 7.2 per touch) and even catching a pass for 18 yards. That’s nearly 200 yards from scrimmage and three scores — enough to take a huge advantage over anyone in your fantasy league (unless they had Drew Brees, but that’s another article).

As I said before, Percy Harvin is looking pretty good himself. He’s a playmaker who caught 3 passes for 36 yards and a touchdown and added 2 carries for 22 yards. He’s scary fast and when he gets in the open field he’s liable to score at any time.

When You Look at Detroit …

… you see a team in rebuilding mode. Is 0-16 a possibility again? Well, maybe. Matthew Stafford rushed for a touchdown but also threw 3 picks in a bizarro twist. He didn’t complete half his passes (he was 16-of-37) but he did manage to break 200 passing yards. Leagues that penalize for interceptions should steer clear of the rookie.

The biggest problem for Detroit in this game was New Orleans offense. Brees threw 6 touchdowns and was a relentless force, and the Lions had no answer. That kept the ball in Stafford’s hands and prevented the offense from focusing on the run like I’m sure it wished it could.

Having said that, Kevin Smith carried 15 times for 20 yards. That’s pretty inexcusable from any perspective. Still, if he can get some traction it will be a huge boon for the offense. The Lions need to establish an effective running game so Stafford doesn’t need to put the ball in the air. After all, New Orleans wasn’t noted for its pass defense in the past; either they’re great this season or the Lions have a nervous and ill-prepared rookie quarterback. If it’s the latter the Lions are in for some big struggles again in 2009.

After Looking Around …

Detroit’s offense only scored 20 points — two touchdowns and a pair of field goals — and the defense allowed Drew Brees to pass for 358 yards and Mike Bell to rush for 143 yards. That’s outrageous. The Lions must contain Adrian Peterson and force Brett Favre to beat them or they’re in for another embarrassing defeat.

The Vikings must establish the running game and do what New Orleans did last week: stop the run and force Stafford to beat them. He’s uncomfortable under pressure and he tries to force success; asking him to beat the defense could result in some big turnovers.

Most Likely To …

… Go Big: Adrian Peterson — Yeah, again. If Mike Bell can rush for 143 yards Adrian Peterson can break 100 without much trouble. Granted, Detroit will focus to stop the run; but then again, there’s no doubt they gameplanned to stop Drew Brees last week. We all know what happened on gameday.

… Bonus Go Big: Calvin Johnson — I know Stafford struggled last week and I don’t expect a big game from him this week, but Calvin Johnson is a phenomenal wide receiver. Remember, he took 3 passes 90 yards last week. If the Lions need to play catch-up, he’ll be the go-to receiver. And (brief) history has shown he’s successful against the Vikings: only once (in four games) did the Vikings keep him out of the endzone and his yardage is typically respectable: he finished with 84 and 85 yards in their two meetings last year.

… Go Home: Kevin Smith — The Vikings have a notoriously stout run defense and they’ll want Matthew Stafford throwing passes. Kevin Smith is unlikely to have a great game against them; last season he rushed for 126 yards in two games and failed to score a touchdown. Expect nothing different in this meeting.

Bills head coach Dick Jauron must be frustrated, and perhaps alarmed at this point with his struggling defense and plodding offense. Buffalo’s offense has been especially nauseating this preseason, so much so that I think they’d kill to be playing as well as Oakland circa 2006.

15 series for the starters this preseason, and 3 points to show for it. 0.2 points per series? Seriously?

Certainly it’s important to remember that this is preseason, and the Bills have been struggling in exhibition games. But week three is considered by many to be “dress rehearsal” for the regular season; Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh, 17-0. Those points were scored in the first half, during which Pittsburgh controlled the ball for 21 minutes.

Less than nine minutes of offense for the starters?

Over the course of the game the offense managed just eight total first downs and did not convert a single third down. The offense moved the chains a mere three times in the first half and just once in the first quarter. Buffalo may have turned the ball over just once, but 135 yards of offense over the course of the game isn’t enough. Including penalties, the offense moved 55 yards in the first half and never past their own 42 yard line. If the Bills can’t convert on third down it will be a very long season for Bills fans. Again.

Buffalo played a no-huddle, no-success offense during the game; in other words, drives were short and bitter. Trent Edwards didn’t complete a pass for more than six yards until nearly midway through the second quarter. Prior to that he had thrown an interception returned for a touchdown and completed 3-of-7 for 11 yards.

The biggest missing piece of Buffalo’s puzzle at this stage is Terrell Owens, who has missed three weeks with a toe injury. In his absence the Bills have found limited success, having been outscored 68-6 before halftime in four preseason games. Buffalo is actually averaging less than one point per first half.

The question we must ask is, can Terrell Owens breathe life into this offense? He’s certainly a great wide receiver and a playmaker, but his age is a concern and Trent Edwards has been very disappointing thus far. Even if he’s on the field, it seems unlikely he’ll be enough of a presence to turn this team around in a hurry, especially after missing three weeks of practice.

This situation is shaping to be an ugly one. It seems unlikely Owens has formed a rapport with Edwards with all the time missed; that could lead to Buffalo stumbling out of the gate to start the season. The division projects to be very competitive again with the return of Tom Brady and emergence of Miami as a legitimate contender last season.

One can only hope Owens doesn’t create a locker room schism or beg for the football following a few rough outings this season. I would never wish that upon any team, especially one poised to draft early when April rolls around.

If there was a team in the NFL no one else wants to play right now, I think you’d have to assume it’s the Baltimore Ravens. If I was a coach I wouldn’t want to put together the game plan that attempts to beat the Ravens stout defense. Minutes removed from defeating the Tennessee Titans on the road and a week after drilling the white hot Miami Dolphins in Florida, no team is gaining momentum quite like the Baltimore Ravens.

Unlike other hot teams in the postseason, the Ravens have a great defense. And beyond that, there’s an offense that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, led by a rookie quarterback who is playing very un-rookie-like.

Said Joe Flacco after the Ravens victory over Tennessee, “I’ve played 18 games or 19 now … you’re not really a rookie anymore.” He sure doesn’t look like a rookie when he’s on the field. And it certainly doesn’t hurt that his teammates constantly have his back and are there to support him all the time.

“Joe Flacco, yeah, a rookie,” said Ray Lewis in an interview with Warren Sapp. “Rookies only get caught if everything is put on their shoulders. Everything ain’t on his shoulders. It’s just gonna be, ‘Joe, we got you.’ That’s what I tell him all the time.”

But Baltimore doesn’t just avoid turnovers and crucial mistakes; the offense can also put up points. Perhaps it isn’t as electrifying as, say, the New Orleans Saints, but the Ravens offense does quietly average 24 points per game, thanks in no small part to its fourth ranked running game. Though it got off to a slow start and never really attained an outstanding per carry average, the Ravens’ three-headed monster consisting of Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain, and Ray Rice rushed for 2,027 yards during the regular season. It helped define the Ravens’ ball-control offense, which ran 1,058 plays (2nd) and controlled possession for 33 minutes per game (1st) during the regular season.

Of course, the real strength of this team is the defense. Allowing opponents just 1.11 points per drive (1st), or 15.2 points per game, during the regular season, the defense has exceeded those numbers in the postseason. The Miami Dolphins scored just nine points in the first round and against the Tennessee Titans, the defense, led by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, allowed just 10 points. Both opposing offenses averaged at least 21 points per game during the season.

And though home field advantage receives a lot of hype leading up to the postseason, does is bother Ray Lewis his team will be playing on the road in every playoff game? Uh, no.

Because the Ravens defense is offered a lot of free reign to adjust on the field and during the game, communication is a necessity. Most fans understand it’s difficult to communicate on the field when it’s loud in a stadium, so a home crowd will usually scream and cheer at the top of its lungs when an opposing offense is on the field because it’s difficult for the quarterback to audible or for the offense to communicate. Unfortunately, it’s a two-sided coin and there are times when the defense is affected, too.

“A lot of times people don’t realize we play better on the road,” said Lewis in his interview with Sapp, whoechoed the sentiment by commenting, “they say defense travels well.”

The Ravens defense has traveled very well in the postseason, so it should come as no surprise the leader of the team is still Ray Lewis, the vocal linebacker who leads by inspiring his teammates and setting a strong example by giving everything he has on every down to defeat whatever opponent is on the field, any given week.

“Somebody is challenging our manhood. And if they can tell you that and I’m your leader, I’ll show you what I’m willing to do, first, and then see if you can follow me from there.” So far the Ravens have followed him to the AFC Championship game. Now every team fears Lewis’s teammates will follow him two more games to a Super Bowl victory.

Here’s a new way to approach fantasy football projections: rather than consider only changes made on offense or to the coaching staff, look at the players’ teammates on defense - you’ll be a better fantasy player because of it.

But why look at the defense? After all, defense doesn’t really influence offense, does it? Well, that’s not really true. Knowing whether a team has a good or poor defense makes projecting its run-pass ratio a heckuva lot easier. And as any seasoned fantasy player will tell you, opportunity creates breakout statistical seasons.

What do I mean by this? To begin, let’s pretend you know a team will have a top ten defense. They made a lot of big offseason acquisitions and hired a proven defensive coordinator. During the season, they tend to hold opponents to under 20 points per game. Teams like this tend to run more often than they pass because they are playing to control the football and grind clock. They don’t need to pass as often as a team with a bad defense because they don’t need to score as many points.

This is how 95% of NFL coaches approach their offenses: if they can run the ball - a low-risk style of play - they will run the ball. The chances of a turnover are minimized and it’s more likely to gain yardage - even if it’s a minimal amount - than a pass play, with has, on average, a 60-65% chance of gaining yards. This is why most teams run on first down: if they attempt a pass and it’s incomplete, they’re faced with 2nd and 10; but if they run the ball and pick up 4 yards to make it 2nd and 6, their second down options open up.

Consider the Tennessee Titans during the regular season. Could they have passed the ball more frequently? Sure. Why didn’t they? Because the running game was successful and they didn’t need to score a lot of points. They had a mediocre scoring offense (ranked 14th), but a great defense (ranked 2nd).

At the opposite end of the spectrum, consider the New Orleans Saints. They had a bad defense this season which gave up a lot of points (nearly 25 per game), so to keep up and outscore opponents, the Saints needed a lot of points in a hurry. To score as often as they did (more than any other team in the NFL, actually), they passed the ball more than 60 percent of the time.

If you drafted either Chris Johnson or Drew Brees this season, you were probably happy. Those players were put in a position to score a lot of fantasy points because the situation usually demanded their involvement. The Titans could have passed the ball more often, but they might have ended up with more interceptions. The Saints could have tried sticking with a running game, but it would have eaten too much clock and the odds of moving straight down the field would have been diminished.

Next season, when you’re projecting player performance, consider how many opportunities they’ll be given. Consider their defenses.

Take a look at the top ten scoring defenses in the NFL this season. Don’t worry, I’ll wait.

Back? Excellent. Did you notice anything they shared in common? Let me help: look at the records; every team on that list is at least .500 this season. You have to go all the way to the 14th ranked scoring defense to find a team (Cleveland) which has lost more than half its games. In fact, only four teams with a top twenty scoring defense have won fewer than half their games. Interesting, considering only 12 teams will qualify for the postseason.

Now, for the sake of argument, let’s take the opposite viewpoint and assume a team can win games with a great offense, regardless of its defense’s quality. To save some time, let me break down how this looks. The top four scoring offenses are at least .500 this season, which is interesting because three of those teams have a scoring defense that ranks 20th or worse. The Green Bay Packers and San Diego Chargers, whose defenses rank 21st and 16th, respectively, are the only two teams with a top ten scoring offense and record below .500.

Before you go out and declare defense’s place as a better indicator of success, consider: the Buffalo Bills, whose offense ranks 20th in scoring, are the only other franchise in the top twenty with a sub-.500 record. In other words, just three of the top twenty scoring offenses are putting up points for teams with below-average records.

Wait. So there three top twenty scoring offenses are below .500 and four top twenty scoring defenses are in the same position? Sure, that’s one way to interpret it. Of course, there are other factors. After all, the common maxim preaches “defense wins championships” instead of “defense wins in the regular season.” But let’s assume New York (take your pick), Arizona, Carolina, or Tennessee make the postseason. There are some pretty darn good teams in that mix, all of which have a top ten scoring offense. Among those teams, the Jets and Cardinals don’t have a top ten, or even top nineteen, scoring defense. You could also look at the flip side of the coin. If the Giants, Panthers, Titans, Steelers, or Colts win the Super Bowl, a top ten defense will have won. Among those teams, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis are the two teams without a top ten scoring offense. (They rank 21st and 17th, respectively.)

Okay, let’s retrace what we learned. A bunch of teams with a top ten scoring offense will make the postseason, just like a bunch of teams with a top ten scoring defense will. But unless the Steelers, Colts, Jets, or Cardinals win the Super Bowl, it’s reasonable a team with a very special balance of both top ten offense and top ten defense will win.

Look at history. The ‘85 Bears, ‘00 Ravens, and ‘02 Buccaneers were the only three franchises in the last 25 years (and probably in the history of the Super Bowl) to have won on defense alone. Three out of forty-three? I think it’s safe to ditch the idea “defense wins championships.” Let’s adopt something new: teams cannot win by defense (or offense) alone. Football purists may not love it, but this maxim has at least one thing in its favor: it’s true.

The Denver Broncos are 4-1 and two games ahead of the San Diego Chargers in the AFC West - but there’s still reason to be nervous. Read on for the ten reasons to be hopeful (and doubtful) for the Broncos this season.

1. The Broncos have scored 35 points in their past two games, which really isn’t that great. But it does give an idea of how hot they started the season: the Broncos remain the third-highest scoring team in the NFL, averaging 29.8 points per game. Denver averaged 38 points per game in their first three games.

2. You want to talk about a bad defense? The Broncos kept the Buccaneers out of the endzone, for the most part, in their victory Sunday, and snapped a three game streak in which opponents scored at least 30 points per game.

3. But to be fair to the defense, which ranks 25th in rushing yards per game, let me point out that it has allowed just one 100-yard rusher this season. Larry Johnson rushed for 198 yards week four, Denver’s only loss of the season.

4. The Broncos have, however, had a little bit more trouble stopping the pass. Denver’s defense ranks 30th in the NFL in pass defense, due primarily to two particular games. Against the Chargers and Saints - two oft-passing offenses - the Broncos allowed 377 and 421 passing yards. In their three other games - against Oakland, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay, three run-first offenses - the Broncos allowed an average of less than 150 passing yards per game.

5. Let me further elaborate what number four (above) means: whatever opponents do well on offense (run or pass), they usually do it best against the Broncos. As noted, New Orleans and San Diego (which rank 1st and 9th in passing yards per game, respectively) exceeded season averages by 30 and 67 percent, respectively. Kansas City, meanwhile, exceeded its season average for rushing yards per game by 81 percent. Both Oakland and Tampa Bay met or were within five percent of their season averages.

6. Pass-happy Denver? The Broncos rushing offense ranks 14th in the NFL this season in rushing yards, averaging a little less than 120 per game. The passing game, meanwhile, has thrived all season long and the Broncos rank 2nd in the NFL. Cutler has three 300 yard games and 10 passing touchdowns.

7. Featured back? Fuggedaboutit. Selvin Young has handled a little more than a third of the team’s total rush attempts this season, despite being the leading rusher. He averages less than 10 carries per game, though his yard per carry average - 5.7 per attempt - continues to impress.

8. Young isn’t the goal line back, though. That’s Michael Pittman, who has scored four of Denver’s five rushing touchdowns this season. He’s also the team’s “leading” receiver at running back, with five catches.

9. Denver is the only team in the NFL to have two wide receivers with at least 30 catches: Brandon Marshall (34) and Eddie Royal (30). Perhaps more impressive is the fact that Marshall missed week one with suspension, which means he is on pace for more than 125 catches if he continues to play at his current rate for the next 11 weeks. Royal is on pace for 96 receptions.

10. This should illustrate how much different this division’s picture could look right now: the Broncos have scored 149 points and allowed 130, making them the third highest scoring team in the NFL. But, look at this: San Diego has scored 148 points and allowed 129 points. One fewer point scored and one fewer point allowed. And yet the Chargers have two fewer wins and two more losses.

In the NFL for the past half decade, fewer things have been more certain than the Colts winning the AFC South. But this season things have changed. The level of competitive advantage is swinging in favor of the Tennessee Titans, while the Jaguars cling to second place. Can the Colts affect a change here? Take a look at ten things you ought to know about Peyton Manning and Co.

1. For the first time in a long time the Colts aren’t undefeated at this point in the season. In the previous three seasons, Indianapolis opened the season with a minimum of seven consecutive victories, but this year it took them just one week to get that first loss. At 1-2, the Colts might find it an uphill battle to win 12 or more games, something the team has done every year since 2003.

2. It’s also the first time the team has fielded a poor offense. The Colts are averaging 17.3 points per game (27th in NFL), which is a big drop from last season’s average of 28.1 per game. In fact, the Colts scored 20 points or fewer just twice last season.

3. Everyone is arguing that the Colts have a bad offense so far and to some degree that’s true. But have you looked at this schedule? Chicago, Minnesota, and Jacksonville are three tough, physical defenses to play against. Perhaps the Colts are struggling as much as they are because they’re facing some pretty tough defenses.

4. Peyton Manning is averaging 40 passing attempts per game, which is second in the NFL. But with his sub-60 completion percentage, he’s ranked just 21st in the league in average yards per attempt (6.5). His 73.1 passer rating is also very mediocre and very un-Peyton-like.

5. The reason Manning is struggling? He missed preseason, which is one reason the offense’s timing is thrown off. He’s doing a lot of things right, but it’s going to take him time to work his way back into the offense and get things going. This is a team that will be hot by midseason, and their week four bye came at just the right time.

6. It also doesn’t help that Joseph Addai is struggling. He has 43 carries this season, but he’s rushed for only 142 yards with a 3.3 yard per carry average. He has, however, carried for three touchdowns on the ground. Still, because he’s the focal point of the running game (no one else has more than six carries), and his struggles affect the entire offense.

7. How ’bout those wide receivers? Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez are the two key receivers, but Marvin Harrison is looking pretty good, too. Wayne and Gonzalez are pretty neck-and-neck at this point, discounting touchdowns. Dallas Clark, unfortunately, hasn’t been getting it done for fantasy owners. He has 5 catches for 55 yards but no scores.

8. The defense is doing its job, to some extent. They’re keeping opponents off the board and are allowing just 22.3 points per game (8th), which in any other season would be enough for this offense to win games. Unfortunately, the Colts are still getting outscored by about five per matchup.

9. Here’s the big problem with the defense: they can’t stop the run. At all. This especially hurts because opponents are able to keep the clock ticking, wearing down Indy’s speedy defense. The absence of Bob Sanders is the biggest problem. His return in a few weeks will be huge for this defense’s rebound.

10. This is a team that will turn around. They aren’t kicking off the season with the same intensity as they often do, but they’ll be rolling soon enough. The question is, when? The Titans are 4-0 right now and building a solid lead on the division. But this is a division that could still be won by a number of teams. Check back at midseason: we’ll probably have a much different snapshot of the division.

A preseason playoff pick (unintended alliteration), the Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t kept fans confident this season. After a shaky start, the Jags sit at 2-2 after an overtime victory over the 0-3 Texans. What’s working? What’s not? Check out the following ten observations through the first four weeks of the season.

1. The Jaguars haven’t been in a game decided by more than seven points. In fact, three of the four games were decided by four or fewer points. On the same token, Jacksonville hasn’t won a game by more than three points. Unconvincing wins are not how you want to start a season.

2. Through the first four games of the season, quarterback David Garrard has four interceptions. In twelve games last year he threw just three. He also has just two touchdowns this season, compared to the 18 he threw 12. Summarized: he’s throwing picks four times as often and touchdowns three times less often.

3. Garrard is also on pace to be sacked 40 times this season; that’s how many times he was sacked in his previous 33 games, 32 of which he started. On the plus side, his completion percentage has never been higher. On the minus, his passer rating has never been lower (in seasons with at least 100 pass attempts).

4. Noted for their powerful running game last season, the Jaguars are stumbling a bit this season. David Garrard has the best yard per carry average among those with more than one carry, averaging 4.6 yards per scramble. Fred Taylor, who leads the team with 59 carries, is lagging behind with a 3.6 yard per carry average, while Maurice Jones-Drew has a respectable 4.4 with two touchdowns.

5. The team as a whole is averaging 126.5 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry, which pales in comparison with last year’s marks of 149.5 and 4.6. Also, if you take away Montell Owens 41 yard scamper, the team is averaging just over 116 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry.

6. Though David Garrard hasn’t been great this season, his top receiver, Matt Jones, has been just fine. He has 21 catches for 244 yards and a touchdown through four games; not bad numbers for someone who had 24 catches for 317 yards and four touchdowns last season. Better than that, though, has been his consistency: he’s hasn’t caught fewer than 5 or more than 6 receptions in any game this season. Assuming he doesn’t get injured, he could have close to 80 catches by the end of the season.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew remains the offense’s playmaker. He’s second on the team in receptions and and yards, and he has 307 yards on 51 touches with two scores. No one player has scored as often, nor is anyone responsible for as many yards from scimmage.

8. Here’s a surprise: the Jags’ renowned defense has struggled this season. It’s middle-of-the-pack in most measurables, and, bet you didn’t see this coming, the line has struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks. After bringing down the quarterback 37 times last season, the Jags have just 5 sacks this season (rank: 27th).

9. Opposing quarterbacks have been pretty lucky against the Jaguars this season. Opponents have a collective 93.5 rating against Jacksonville through the first four games, though that might be a bit inflated because Matt Schaub shredded the defense in this past week’s matchup, throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions, posting a 119.5 rating.

10. Then again, one could argue that Jacksonville’s interception total (4) is skewed because the team faced a weak-looking Vince Young week one. Young completed two passes to the wrong jerseys and put up a 46.5 passer rating. All things considered, this defense has been on one week and off the next.