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Posts Tagged ‘DeSean Jackson’

Crunching Numbers after Week 15

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009
  • *Gem of the Week*: Everyone is talking about the game that Ben Roethlisberger had vs. the Packers but what Aaron Rodgers did was something that had never been done before.  Rodgers became just the 9th QB to throw for at least 350 yards and 3 TDs, rush for a TD, and not throw any INTs in a game.  However, the previous 8 QBs to accomplish this feat all won their games which gives Rodgers a record that I’m sure he did not want.
  • The New York Giants’ beatdown of the Redskins on Monday night produced a final score that most of us had never seen before.  The Giants won the game 45-12 which is a final score that has not been seen in the NFL in 51 years.  The only other time an NFL game ended 45-12 was back on October 5, 1958 when the Cleveland Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers by that score.
  • LaDainian Tomlinson is becoming a regular on this list as he reached another milestone against the Bengals.  LT had 117 yards from scrimmage which moved him ahead of Tony Dorsett for ninth all-time in career yards from scrimmage.  He needs 169 total yards over the last two game to move ahead Thurman Thomas for eighth all-time.
  • Rashard Mendenhall became the first Steelers player in 21 years to score a rushing touchdown and gain 70 receiving yards in one game.  Merrill Hoge last accomplished this feat in 1988.
  • After catching 9 passes for 196 yards, Andre Johnson has reached at least 190 receiving yards in back-to-back games.  The only other player to do that was Chad (Johnson) Ochocinco back in 2006 when he went for 260 yards and 190 yards in successive weeks.
  • Andre Johnson also reached another milestone in Week 15 as did Anquan Boldin.  Those two reached 575 career receptions in their seventh year in the league.  The only other players to do that were Sterling Sharpe, Marvin Harrison, and Torry Holt.
  • Ricky Williams is only the fourth player to reach 1,000 rushing yards and 10 TDs in a season after turning 32 years old.  The others were Mike Anderson (32), Ottis Anderson (32), and John Riggins who did it at the ages of 34 and 35.
  • Josh Cribbs’ two kickoff returns for touchdowns against the Chiefs give him eight for his career which is an NFL record.  Cribbs had 306 total return yards in the game which makes him just the third player in NFL history to reach 300 return yards in a single game.  Devin Hester did it in 2007 and Tyrone Hughes did it in 1994.  Oh, and Cribbs had already done it before in 2007.
  • Despite being a pass-first coach, Andy Reid hasn’t had much success finding 1000-yard receivers.  DeSean Jackson reached that mark vs. the 49ers but he is only the third Eagle in the Reid-era (1999-present) to reach 1,000 receiving yards in a season.  The others were Terrell Owens (2004) and Kevin Curtis (2007).
  • Jay Cutler’s home/away splits are staggering this year.  In 7 home games he’s thrown 11 TDs and 5 INTs but in 7 road games he’s thrown 8 TDs and 20 INTs.  You read that correctly: a guy who’s making $17 million this year has a TD:INT ratio of 2:5 on the road.

Crunching Numbers after Week 14

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009
  • Adrian Peterson set a Vikings franchise record by rushing for his 14th TD of the season vs. the Bengals.  Peterson also joined elite company by rushing for 97 yards to give him an even 1200 for the season.  “All Day” joined LaDainian Tomlinson, Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, and Earl Campbell as the only players to rush for at least 1200 yards and score at least 10 rushing TDs in each of the players’ first three seasons.
  • Brandon Marshall’s 21 receptions against the Colts broke a record set by Terrell Owens in 2000 against the Bears.  The one common link between those two games is Casey Wiegmann who is currently the center for the Broncos and was the center for the Bears back in 2000.  Since Wiegmann is an offensive lineman he is often overlooked but he has been one of the most durable and consistent players over the past decade.  He is only one of 10 active players who have started every game since the 2001 season.
  • As it currently stands, Felix Jones has the second highest rushing average in NFL history.  Jones reached 100 career carries vs. the Chargers and is averaging 6.95 yards per carry.  That mark is highest among RBs with at least 100 carries as Michael Vick currently holds the all-time record with 7.17 yards per carry.
  • Peyton Manning threw 3 INTs vs. the Broncos which is his most in a game since throwing 6 vs. the Chargers in 2007.  It was the first time that Manning threw 3 INTs in a home game since he did it against Miami in 2002.  Manning is now 1-11 in the regular season when throwing at least 3 INTs in a game.
  • Chris Johnson joined elite company Sunday vs. the Rams.  CJ became only the fourth player to have multiple games in a season with at least 100 yards rushing, 50 yards receiving, and 3 TDs.  He had also done this earlier in the year against Houston.  Brian Westbrook (2006) and Jim Brown (1963) also had done this twice in one season.  LaDainian Tomlinson did it three times in the 2006 season.
  • Ray Rice had an amazingly efficient game against the Lions as Rice had 166 rushing yards (and 53 receiving yards) on just 13 carries.  Rice became only the fourth player since 1960 to rush for at least 160 yards on 13 or fewer carries.  The others are Maurice Jones-Drew (2009, Week 8), Michael Vick (2002 and 2006) and Keith Lincoln (1962).
  • Just food for thought: While watching the Saints play the Falcons and Chris Redman, it struck me that the Saints have played some pretty inexperienced QBs this season.  Thus, I decided to tabulate the number of career games started by the QBs that the Saints have faced this year and that number came out to 490 starts.  By comparison, the Colts’ opponents QBs have started 818 career games.
  • *Gem of the Week* - Against the Vikings, Carson Palmer became the first player in NFL history to attempt at least 25 passes for fewer than 100 yards while maintaining a QB rating of at least 75.  Think about that: he threw the ball 25 times but only managed 94 passing yards while still keeping a respectable passer rating (81.1).
  • Drew Brees reached two milestones in the Saints victory over the Falcons.  He threw his 200th passing TD becoming only the 29th player to accomplish that feat.  He also reached 30,000 passing yards for his career which is a milestone that only 32 other players have reached.
  • DeSean Jackson showed no ill effects from his concussion two weeks ago as he had 261 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs against the Giants on Sunday Night Football.  Jackson became the first player in NFL history to gain 175 receiving yards and return a punt for a TD in the same game.

Week 10 Review: Targets

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

It’s Tuesday, and with all games having been played, it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers: Early in the game between the 49ers and the Bears, it looked like Crabtree was going to have a monster contest, as San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith seemed intent on pumping the ball into Crabtree as often as possible. But that plan soon dissipated and Crabtree received just seven targets fr the game. Still, it’s an indicator of what the 49ers think of their young first-round pick, and how big a part of the game plan he’ll be moving forward.

- Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans: With Justin Gage hurt, it’s tempting to want to look towards Washington as a viable fantasy option, especially since he caught a touchdown pass last week. But he was only targeted twice by Vince Young, though Washington caught both. In fact, of the 25 passes Young threw in the Titans’ win over the Bills, just nine throws were meant for wide receivers.

- Brandon Gibson, St. Louis Rams: Gibson saw his first extended NFL action in the Rams’ loss to the Saints, and he was targeted nine times, which was tops among St. Louis wideouts. He wound up with seven catches for 93 yards, and now that Keenan Burton is out for the year, Gibson likely becomes a starter.

- Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets: Cotchery was targeted 11 times, which is notable because it was more than double the amount of looks Mark Sanchez gave to Braylon Edwards, who received just five targets. And Cotchery was productive as usual, catching six passes, including one for a touchdown.

- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: Houshmandzadeh had wanted the ball more often, and he certainly got his opportunities last week. He was targeted 17 times by Matt Hasselbeck, and was productive with nine receptions for 165 yards. You just have to wonder how much that hurt Nate Burleson, who killed fantasy owners by failing to catch a single pass on just five targets.

Other Week 10 target numbers of interest: DeSean Jackson, 16; Devin Hester, Santonio Holmes, 14; Dwayne Bowe, Brent Celek, 11; Anquan Boldin, 10; Pierre Garcon, 9; Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammad, 8; Terrell Owens, Davone Bess, Roy Williams, 7; Dallas Clark, 5; Mohamed Massaquoi, Vincent Jackson, 3; Marques Colston, 2.

Target Review - Week 5

Monday, October 12th, 2009

It’s time to check out another week of targets, to see which wide receivers their quarterbacks are trusting, and which ones they aren’t.

- Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys: Austin received 15 targets in the Cowboys’ overtime win in Kansas City, which was seven more than Patrick Crayton got, who was second on the team in that statistic. And considering what Miles did with those 15 looks – 10 catches, 250 yards, two touchdowns – he’s likely to get a lot more in the coming weeks, even when Roy Williams returns to full health. Miles’s ability to pick up yards after the catch is something that won’t go unnoticed by Dallas coaches.

- Josh Morgan, San Francisco 49ers: Though Vernon Davis continues to lead the 49ers in targets, and is in fact among the NFC leaders in that statistic, Morgan finally plenty of opportunities to make plays as well. He had nine targets on Sunday in the 49ers’ blowout loss to the Falcons, and wound up with four catches for 78 yards. It was the first time this season that Morgan had more than five targets, and hopefully, for his fantasy owners’ sake, a trend will start.

- Mohammed Massaquoi, Cleveland Browns: Braylon Edwards has departed for the Big Apple, well actually, the Garden State, but the point remains this – Massaquoi seems to be the best receiving option for Cleveland. Unfortunately, that means little when the quarterback play is so inept. Derek Anderson had as pathetic a stat line as you’ll ever see in the Browns’ win over the Bills on Sunday. He completed two passes in 17 attempts, for 23 yards. Six of those throws went to Massaquoi, who caught one of them for 16 yards. Okay, it was windy, but still, two completions? Massaquoi is obviously the No. 1 target for the Browns, but take that with a grain of salt.

- Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos: It was shocking, really. That’s the best way to describe the start Royal had to this season – a start that included a high of 20 receiving yards in a game through the first four weeks. Royal finally got going in the Broncos’ overtime win against the Patriots on Sunday, catching 10 passes for 90 yards after being targeted a whopping 15 times. Hey, if Kyle Orton is going to look for him that often, then Royal will retain at least some of his preseason fantasy value. So don’t drop him just yet. But if, in a few weeks, we see that this game was an aberration, then it’s time to cut your losses.

Other Week 5 target numbers of interest: Wes Welker, 15; Anquan Boldin, 12; Roddy White, Chad Ochocinco, Muhsin Muhammad, 10; Austin Collie, Keenan Burton, 9; Dennis Northcutt, 8; Larry Fitzgerald, 6; Randy Moss, 4; DeSean Jackson, 3; Derrick Mason, 1.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Game Reviews: Baltimore over Kansas City and Philadelphia over Carolina

Monday, September 14th, 2009

Kansas City (0-1) at Baltimore (1-0): Baltimore, 38-24

Notes on Kansas City: It’s hard to assess whether Kansas City would have had more success on offense with Brodie Croyle in the game Sunday. One thing is certain, however: the defense struggled in a big way, allowing the Ravens to score 5 touchdowns.

On offense, the team wasn’t as bad as one might expect. The Chiefs put up 24 points, a pretty good total by any measure; no turnovers were committed and Croyle passed for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Where the team did struggle was when running the ball and on third downs. Larry Johnson picked up just 20 yards on 11 carries and the offense managed just 29 yards on 17 attempts. That’s not too surprising for since Kansas City was up against the Ravens, a team with a notorious rush defense. Struggling to run the ball, the Chiefs were forced into a lot of third down situations, of which they converted just 20 percent (2-of-10).

Kansas City Stud: Brodie Croyle – 16-of-24 for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns

Kansas City Dud: Larry Johnson – 11 carries for 20 yards and 1 reception for 6 yards

Notes on Baltimore: Whoa, Joe Flacco just passed the ball 43 times in the season opener; that’s eye-opening to say the least.

But before you assume the team was getting away from its bread-and-butter, keep this in mind: it also ran the ball 41 times when you count Flacco’s 5 scrambles. In other words, the Ravens were just overpowering the Chiefs in this one. Kansas City had no answers on defense, forcing one interception but allowing 3 passing scores and another 2 on the ground.

Ray Rice and the crew at running back were outstanding in this one. Rice carried 19 times, the number of times he’ll probably average this season, but managed to pick up 108 yards. He’s not a goal line back, but he is very explosive.

Willis McGahee was the most balanced of the backs. He carried 10 times for 44 yards and a score, but he added on that foundation with 4 receptions for 31 yards and another score. In all he finished with 75 yards and 2 scores.

Lastly, as the goal line and short yardage back LeRon McClain managed 6 carries for 19 yards and a score. He did add 3 receptions for 23 yards as one of Flacco’s targets.

Tight end Todd Heap was his favorite target of the day with 5 receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown; Michael Clayton (5 for 76 yards and 1 touchdown) was very similar. But note that the running backs and Heap combined for 14 of Flacco’s 26 completions – that’s a number to keep an eye on.

Baltimore Stud: Joe Flacco – 26-of-43 for 307 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception

Baltimore Dud: Derrick Mason – 4 receptions for 47 yards

Philadelphia (1-0) at Carolina (0-1): Philadelphia, 38-10

Notes on Philadelphia: The big news was Donovan McNabb’s injury. As most fantasy players know, McNabb was something of an injury risk on draft day, so this was a major scare. The good news is reports suggest he should be able to play next week. And that’s great, considering he played pretty solid in this game completing 10-of-18 for 79 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He also added a rushing touchdown to with a 3 yard scamper in the third quarter before he left the game and was spelled by Kevin Kolb (7-of-11 for 23 yards).

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia running game did just fine. Brian Westbrook carried 13 times for 64 yards and LeSean McCoy added 46 rushing yards on 9 attempts. Note that McNabb was the only player to score on the ground in this one: no doubt he was the reason for success on offense, so his return and health is paramount to Philadelphia’s continued success.

Also note that tight end Brent Celek led the team in receptions. He had 6 on the day for 37 yards and 1 touchdown. No one else caught more than 3 passes, and that was running back Brian Westbrook (8 yards).

Philadelphia Stud: Donovan McNabb – 10-of-18 for 79 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception; 1 carry for 3 yards and 1 touchdown

Philadelphia Dud: DeSean Jackson – 2 receptions for 9 yards

 

Notes on Carolina: 7 turnovers is going to lose a game almost every time, especially when an opponent is able to take advantage: Philadelphia did just that in this game. Jake Delhomme looked atrocious, completing 7 of 17 for 73 yards – unless you count his interception count (3) and the yardage Philadelphia was able to pick up on returns (45 yards). He even lost a fumble that was recovered for a touchdown. So there’s that.

Carolina’s bread and butter is its running game, though. So how did it do? Well, mediocre is the first word that comes to mind: DeAngelo Williams, who scored 20 touchdowns last season, carried 14 times for 37 yards and 1 touchdown, though he did lead the team in receiving with 4 receptions for 42 yards.

The rest of the offense chipped in with 16 attempts for 49 yards.

Carolina Stud: DeAngelo Williams – 14 carries for 37 yards and 1 touchdown; 4 receptions for 42 yards

Carolina Dud: Jake Delhomme – 7 of 17 for 73 yards and 3 interceptions, 1 fumble lost

Week One Injury Roundup

Monday, September 14th, 2009
  • Brian Urlacher (LB, Chi): Broken wrist; out for season.  This is a huge blow if you have the Bears’ defense because in the seven games that Urlacher had missed prior to this season, Chicago was 0-7 and gave up an average of 26 points per game.  Strong-side LB Pisa Tinoisamoa also will be out but only a couple of weeks after spraining his PCL.  Chicago has already reached out to Derrick Brooks and he should be able to step right in as he’s played in the “Tampa Two” defense that the Bears currently run.  Though he plays the same position as Lance Briggs so someone will have to change positions.  Because of their special teams play, the Chicago is still worth keeping on your roster but they should only be started against poor offensive teams (Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis, Cincinnati).
  • Anthony Gonzalez (WR, Ind): Strained knee ligament; out 2-6 weeks.  Gonzalez likely will not come back until after the Colts’ week-six bye.  I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are not floating on the waiver wire in your league, so the next best option is second-year man Pierre Garcon.  Garcon was the slot receiver before Gonzalez was injured and he now becomes a starter.  Garcon had five targets vs. Jacksonville (3 rec. 24 yards) and likely becomes the #3 receiving option in Indianapolis.  Garcon is definitely worth a roster spot and may even warrant a start in the coming weeks.  In week three the Colts play the Cardinals (last in NFL in rec. TDs allowed in 2008) and in week four they play the Seahawks (last in NFL in rec. yards allowed in 2008) so Garcon will have his opportunity to make an impact.
  • Pierre Thomas (RB, NO): Though he was not injured in Week One (he didn’t even dress), his replacement, Mike Bell, may have created a three-headed committee for touches among Saint’s running backs.  The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that Bell could still be the starter once Thomas comes back which should be in Week Two.  This situation could be similar to the one in Dallas with Bell (or Thomas) in the role as Marion Barber, Reggie Bush as Felix Jones, and Thomas (or Bell) as Tashard Choice.  If still available, Bell is someone worth adding to your team and even though Thomas had a nice season last year, his running style is closer to Reggie Bush’s whereas Bell provides a between-the-tackles runner that is similar to former Saint, Deuce McAllister.
  • Donovan McNabb (QB, Phi): Broken rib, doubtful for Week 2.  Coach Andy Reid said backup Kevin Kolb would get the first-team reps in practice and this is bad news for anyone that has a Philadelphia receiver not named DeSean Jackson.  In Kolb’s two career games with extended playing time (Sun. vs. Carolina, Week 12 vs. Baltimore in 2008) he has 17 completions and here is the breakdown: 6 completions to TE Brent Celek, 5 completions to DeSean Jackson, 4 completions to Eagles’ running backs, and 2 completions to any WR other than Jackson.  Expect to see Andy Reid go against the grain and employ a run-oriented gameplan.  Westbrook, of course, is a must-start but LeSean McCoy is also worth a start as he and Westbrook will be utilized in many screen passes to limit Kolb’s downfield throws.  Jackson is still worth a start and Celek will also be start-worthy as he will be a big factor in the short and intermediate passing game.  No other Eagles offensive player is even worth a look as long as Kolb (or Vick) is starting in place of McNabb.

Guide to Good Fantasy Football Drafting

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

When it comes to fantasy football drafts, it seems everybody has a different strategy, and different way of doing things. For example, there’s the guy who takes forever to make each pick, waiting until :01 is showing on the clock before finally deciding who to select with the No. 2 overall pick. Then there’s the guy who talks a lot of trash after each of his picks, no matter who the selection was, and usually they have a very witless team name that only they think is funny. They’ll spout things like, “cant believe i got derik andersun in the 9th rnd!! he’s gonna throw at least 25 tds this season! no 1 can stop the stinkbombz this year baybee!!!!”

We could go on, of course. There’s still drunk drafter, as well as the angry guy who gets his all of his players “stolen” right before he was about to select them, and the guy (or girl) who insists that their new significant other be in the league even though they’ve never played fantasy football before and make their selections based on some inane criteria like a cool-sounding name. Still, no matter who is in your league, the point is to win, and get the satisfaction of beating the Derek Anderson-led stinkbombz. And to do so means good drafting, obviously. But what is good drafting? Well, we’re here to help you out with that, and give you some quintessential tips on how to avoid some common mistakes.

High-Profile Does not Mean Higher Value: You see this all the time, usually with players who came into the league with a lot of hype, or who play in the largest media markets. Name recognition doesn’t mean anything in fantasy football. See the graph below? Those are the top-15 quarterbacks last season in fantasy points. See where former No. 1 overall NFL draft pick and Super Bowl winning signal-caller Eli Manning is? No. 14. And last season was his first with a completion percentage of at least 58 percent and a quarterback rating above 77.0. Reggie Bush was the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL draft and a Heisman Trophy winner, yet he’s never even run for 600 yards in a season.

Avoid Rookie Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers: Everybody talks about how good Matt Ryan was for Atlanta last season. And he was, relatively speaking, but his 16 touchdown passes were 16th in the league, and his 3,440 passing yards were 13th in the league. Again, referring to the graph, he was 15th in fantasy points at quarterback last season, which made him a QB2, despite having what everybody would call an amazing season for a rookie. There are clearly more exceptions at wideout, as we saw last season with the production of DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal, but it’s also extremely difficult to predict just who will do what. If you could say with conviction that you knew in 2006 that seventh-round pick Marques Colston would amass over 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, or last season that you knew Royal would catch 90 passes, then pack your things and move to Vegas.

Don’t Overdo it on Handcuffs: One of the most overused strategies in fantasy football is the use of handcuff picks. If you’re reading this, you almost certainly know what that means, but just in case someone doesn’t, that’s the practice of taking the backup to your No. 1 running back to ensure that should he go down, you have a safety net. Things have changed in the NFL lately, however, and this strategy is one that has a chance to backfire. With the emphasis in recent years on two-back systems, taking a handcuff can be impossible to begin with. If you have DeAngelo Williams, it’s not very wise to take Jonathan Stewart soon after. Last season, they each amassed double-digit fantasy points only five times, and on three occasions they combined for fewer than 15 points. As for teams that utilize mainly one runner, there’s a reason for that. If you drafted Steven Jackson, do you really think Samkon Gado or Kenneth Darby will adequately replace him? This is not to say that some handcuffs aren’t important, just that they’re not as relevant. By all means, if you decide to draft Brian Westbrook, take LeSean McCoy. In other words, be smart about who really needs a handcuff.

So, About Vick

Friday, August 14th, 2009

By now, you’ve undoubtedly heard that the Philadelphia Eagles have inked Michael Vick to a two-year deal. And as you can image, reactions have been mixed. His teammates say they’ll embrace him. As receiver DeSean Jackson so eloquently put it, “Even though he did whatever he did, I don’t feel like nobody should hold a grudge on him.”

Some media types, however, aren’t so keen on the signing. Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Phil Sheridan writes, “it would be nice if Vick has changed and dedicates the rest of his life to good deeds. It would just be nice if that happens somewhere else.”

No matter what you think of the signing, the fact is that Vick will be in an NFL uniform at some point this season. And since this is a site dedicated to fantasy football, let’s examine all of the potential on-the-field consequences.

The most pressing issue is probably how this will affect Donovan McNabb this season. The answer: it probably shouldn’t. Vick, two years removed from playing in a game, is not going to supplant McNabb, barring injury. First, Vick has to get fully reinstated, which Roger Goodell says will happen by Week 6. That means it could come any time between now and then. There is no way he’ll knock the rust off of two years of inactivity and take over for one of the better quarterbacks in football. It’s just not happening.

And as the graph on the right shows you, Vick wasn’t really fantasy-friendly in his prime years of 2004-2006. His average fantasy points per game of around 15 is pretty good (for comparison, Peyton Manning averaged over 18 fantasy points per game in that same time period), but the killer was his inconsistency. An important part of winning in fantasy is having players, especially at the quarterback position, deliver relatively consistently. And due to his up-and-down ability to throw the ball, Vick couldn’t do that.

What he could always do, however, is run. And this is probably where he will get on the field most of the time for Philly. The most likely path for Vick is that he’ll be used in a variety of plays per game, in the range of 5-10. He’ll line up in the backfield with McNabb, or replace McNabb for a couple plays, which allows for potential havoc with the abilities of Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Jackson each able to both catch the ball and run with it.

So to answer the ultimate question - is Vick worthy of a draft pick? At this early stage of the preseason, I’d say no. Not yet. If you are having your fantasy draft soon, like in the next week or so, somebody will probably take a filer on him. Let them. It’s not worth using a roster spot on Vick right now when there are so many unknowns about him. That spot would be better used on another receiver or running back. But pay attention to Vick’s work in the preseason (though he’s not eligible to play until the final two games), and what type of things the Eagles have him do. If it seems like he’ll be a regular part of their offense, then maybe selecting him in the later rounds makes sense. But for now, he belongs on the waiver wire.

Eagles’ Offense could be among NFL’s elite

Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

There have been few times during the fantasy football era where you could draft almost any player from a team and expect him to provide you with good production.  The Dungy-Colts, the Moss-Carter Vikings, and the Greatest Show on Turf all had multiple players who I, personally, had no problem starting on gameday.  In 2009 I think another team will follow in the footsteps of those teams, but it might not be who you expect.  It’s not the Patriots, the Chargers, or the Saints…it’s actually the often-criticized offense of the Philadelphia Eagles.

The McNabb-Westbrook combination has been together longer than any other QB-RB combo in the league.  That means in a lot in terms of chemistry and instinctively reacting to the other player.  McNabb is in that second-tier of quarterbacks who will get you 3000+ passing yards and around 20 touchdowns.  But what gives McNabb a boost in terms of fantasy production is not his rushing yards, but his lack of interceptions.  Last year McNabb’s percentage of passing attempts that resulted in interceptions was 1.9, which was lower than Brees or Manning.  For his career he stands at 2.1% which is the best in NFL history for players with at least 1500 pass attempts.  With Westbrook, you know what you’re going to get, you just don’t know how many games you will get it for and with him turning 30 in September, his durability questions will get louder.  But he has help this year in a quartet of newcomers.  2nd rounder, LeSean McCoy, is similar to Westbrook in size and ability.  They both have good hands out of the backfield and prefer to run around you rather than through you.  He obviously won’t get the same number of touches as Westbrook, but there should not be a drop in production when he is on the field.  McCoy gains added value because he will be the designated “Wildcat QB” as he has experience running it from his days at the University of Pittsburgh.  Many people undervalue the role of a fullback in fantasy.  No I’m not saying go out and draft new Eagles FB Leonard Weaver, but he will upgrade an area of need for Philly.  Last year the Eagles used converted linebacker Dan Klecko and backup halfback Correll Buckhalter as the lead blocker for Westbrook.  Coincidentally or not, Westbrook responded with his lowest rushing average of his career.  Now Westbrook has a solid lead back and McNabb has another option out of the backfield in Weaver who was a tight end in college and led all fullbacks in receptions last year.

The remainder of the quartet could actually be considered a quintet if you include G Shawn Andrews who only played 2 games last year.  His return, along with his brother, RT Stacy, and LT Jason Peters mean the Eagles now have the heaviest offensive line which traditionally means wider holes for the backs to run through.  But the line is still nimble enough to ward off pass rushers as Philadelphia had the seventh fewest sacks allowed last season and Jason Peters is renowned as one of the best pass blockers in the game.  All these changes remind me of another team last year who had a 30 year old running back post the best rushing numbers of his career-the New York Jets.  In 2008 the Jets added a Hall of Fame quarterback (Favre), a 4-time pro bowl fullback (Richardson), a 7-time pro bowl guard (Faneca), and a two-time Super Bowl champion tackle (Woody).  All these seemingly minor additions helped Thomas Jones net a career high 15 touchdowns and put him in his first pro bowl.  Westbrook’s receiving totals may not jump much from last year but as long as he stays relatively healthy, then he should easily get back to over 1000 yards rushing and improve upon his 4.0 rushing average.

The Eagles wide receivers may lack the star power that other teams possess, but they make up for it with quality depth.  Rookie Jeremy Maclin is similar to 2008 rookie DeSean Jackson in terms of versatility, but because of the depth of the Eagles receiving core, he may not be called upon as much as Jackson was last year.  As is the case with most rookies, expect inconsistency with some big plays intermittingly.  Kevin Curtis was the Eagles best receiver in 2007 but struggled last year with a hernia injury.  However, he did finish strong and showed off his speed in the NFC championship game with gains of 47 and 50 yards.  He may not score many touchdowns but if you need receiving yards and are in a point-per-reception league, then he could be a late round steal.  Since none of those three receivers are over six feet tall, Hank Baskett becomes the de facto red zone threat among receivers.  But he’s more than just a big possession receiver as he has had receptions of 87, 89, and 90 yards in his three year career.  Baskett has all the tools to be an effective fantasy WR2 but his lack of consistent playing time makes him a boom-or-bust player.  The last fantasy-worthy Eagles player is TE Brent Celek who replaces the fragile L.J. Smith.  Kyle Smith detailed Celek’s potential impact in his blog and I’ll add on that unlike college receiver-turned-NFL tight end, L.J. Smith, Celek is a natural tight end who will provide some YAC which will boost not only his fantasy value, but McNabb’s as well.

I believe the additions of all these players spells nothing but good news for McNabb and his fantasy owners.  Last season was labeled his “rebirth” but I think he will surpass his performance from 2008 and put up his best numbers since the 2004 Super Bowl season.  Westbrook will also be more productive with the backfield additions easing some of his burden.  At the receiver position Jackson will provide the yards, Curtis the receptions, and Baskett the touchdowns with Celek emerging as a sleeper.  Be careful with the rookies though as most don’t usually have a fantasy impact right away, especially when coming off the bench as McCoy and Maclin will be.  But if you are in a keeper league, then it may be worth it to draft either of those two in the later rounds as Philly did not draft them on the first day to be career benchwarmers.

This may be the “last dance” for the Reid-McNabb-Westbrook triumvirate so bank on them turning out their best performances in years.  With an assortment of new offensive weapons and an inspired defense that will be playing in honor of Jim Johnson, 2009 could finally be the year for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Rating the Top-50 Wide Receivers

Friday, July 31st, 2009

We went over the Top-25 Quarterbacks and the Top-50 Running backs, so what do you say we check out the wide receivers?

1. Larry Fitzgerald: If you need a reason why, you don’t watch much football, and probably shouldn’t waste your time and money in fantasy.

2. Andre Johnson: The second-best receiver in the game, but arguably the most explosive, he led the league with 115 receptions and 1,575 receiving yards last season.

3. Calvin Johnson: Think of what he could do if he played for a competent franchise.

4. Randy Moss: Will still be a monster, but don’t expect a repeat of his 2007 numbers.

5. Reggie Wayne: Wayne has been the No. 1 receiver in Indy the past couple years, and that continues in 2009.

6. Steve Smith: Jake Delhomme’s utter mediocrity hampers what he can really do, but he’s as consistent a big-play threat as there is in the league.

7. Greg Jennings: Aaron Rodgers’ favorite toy, and a down-field threat every snap.

8. Brandon Marshall: The Broncos did him no favors by getting rid of Jay Cutler and replacing him with Kyle Orton, but in new head coach Josh McDaniels’ system, he’ll be the go-to guy.

9. Marques Colston: Just one of numerous threats in the Saints’ offense, Colston is a terror to cover due to his size and strength.

10. Anquan Boldin: The single toughest wideout to try and tackle, and one of the few in the league who will run over defenders instead of go around them.

11. Roddy White: After a marginal start to his career, he busted out, and should continue to ascend as Matt Ryan gets even better.

12. Roy Williams: One of the most controversial players in fantasy, people either love him or hate him. Yet he’s easily the best target at wideout for Tony Romo, and he should get plenty of opportunities.

13. Vincent Jackson: Fantasy owners had been waiting for him to break out with a big season, and he finally did in 2008, as the graph displaying the top wideouts in terms of fantasy points shows.

14. Terrell Owens: Aging, but will instantly make the Bills offense a threat to score every time they line up.

15. Braylon Edwards: Stone hands killed him last season, and he was late to training camp this year before failing a physical. Lots of red flags, but still capable of big things.

16. Dwayne Bowe: Matt Cassel will depend heavily on him in his first season under center in K.C.

17. T.J. Houshmandzadeh: Solidifies a Seattle receiving corps that was ravaged by injuries a season ago.

18. Antonio Bryant: Can he repeat what he did last season with an unsettled quarterback situation? Unlikely.

19. Wes Welker: A dream if you have him in a PPR league.

20. Chad Ochocinco: Will bounce back with Carson Palmer back under
center.

21. Santana Moss: Inconsistent, but remains a dynamic threat.

22. Jerricho Cotchery: Because who else is there?

23. Santonio Holmes: The Super Bowl hero is an excellent candidate to have a breakout season.

24. Lee Evans: Should only benefit from having T.O. around.

25. DeSean Jackson: Explosive, but his game still needs a bit of refining.

26. Bernard Berrian: Berrian needs Sage Rosenfels to win the starting quarterback job. His numbers dropped off last season when Tarvaris Jackson was under center.

27. Anthony Gonzalez: Another big-time candidate to do break out, Gonzalez takes Marvin Harrison’s place in the starting lineup for Indy.

28. Hines Ward: Still going, he may cede some catches to Holmes this season, but he’ll still get his.

29. Donnie Avery: The Rams’ No. 1 wideout and first receiver chosen in the 2008 draft had an excellent rookie campaign and promises to get better.

30. Torry Holt: Underrated his whole career, he’s also being underrated this fantasy season. He’s got something left in that tank.

Best of the Rest

31. Lance Moore
32. Devin Hester
33. Donald Driver
34. Kevin Curtis
35. Laveranues Coles
36. Eddie Royal
37. Ted Ginn Jr.
38. Kevin Walter
39. Steve Breaston
40. Justin Gage
41. Patrick Crayton
42. Michael Crabtree
43. Domenik Hixon
44. Mark Clayton
45. Deion Branch
46. Michael Jenkins
47. Sidney Rice
48. Isaac Bruce
49. Bobby Engram
50. Muhsin Muhammad