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Observations and Analysis from Week 3 of Preseason

Tuesday, September 1st, 2009
  • Observation: The Colts’ offensive line is still struggling to create open lanes for their running backs.  Against the Lions, the Colts only averaged 2.6 yards per carry which is an upgrade over what they averaged last week vs. Philadelphia, which was 2.1 yards per carry.  This comes after last year’s league-worst rushing average of 3.6 yards per carry.
  • Analysis: It looks like another bleak year for Joseph Addai who has posted one 100 yard rushing game since Week 9…of 2007.  The Colts didn’t draft Donald Brown for him to sit on the bench and with his 6.1 average during the preseason; he will have a bigger role than Dominic Rhodes had last season.  I don’t understand why people are still drafting Addai in rounds 3-4 when his production will likely be equal to that of Brown.  It’s a much better value to wait three more rounds and draft Brown who could be the starter by season’s end.
  • Observation: Cadillac Williams will factor into the backfield rotation for the Bucs.  Williams was forced into extended playing time last year once Earnest Graham got injured.  Cadillac ran for 54 yards on eight carries vs. the Dolphins’ first-team defense.
  • Analysis: Coach Raheem Morris says he envisions a three-man rotation for Williams, Derrick Ward, and Earnest Graham.  Ward will definitely get the most touches as he is also the third-down back but it appears that Graham’s and Williams’ carries will be equal.  With instability at QB and unproven receivers, the Bucs may try to copy what the Giants did last year with their three backs.  If that’s the case then all three RBs are draft-worthy with Ward as the best option.  Just don’t get too enamored with Graham as there is a good chance people will overlook Williams and you can grab him in the last round, or even free agency.
  • Observation: The Raiders abandoned their running game early on vs. the Saints.  Oakland had 11 rushing attempts and only eight of those were by running backs.  The starter of the game, Michael Bush, had one carry for one yard.
  • Analysis: Bush started the game because both Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden had already started a preseason game.  Coach Tom Cable has not named a starter but McFadden is expected to receive the bulk of the touches.  However; the Raiders abandoning the run game once they fell behind a big deficit is troubling for anyone who owns one of the three RBs.  I expect the Raiders to face deficits like this one all season so their RBs may not see much action in the second half of games.
  • Observation: Justin Gage is serving as Kerry Collins’ favorite receiver while Nate Washington is out with a hamstring strain.  Of Collins’ 14 pass attempts; five were intended for Gage who finished with 57 yards and a touchdown while playing with Collins and Vince Young.
  • Analysis: Gage is being overlooked by pretty much everyone but was extremely productive when he played last season.  In his last eight games he had 604 yards and 5 TDs.  He’ll never be a high receptions guy but anyone who is his team’s #1 receiver is worth a draft pick.  With Washington out for several weeks and rookie Kenny Britt still being brought up to speed with the offense, Gage makes for a safe WR3 to begin the season.
  • Observation: Percy Harvin is not yet a polished receiver.  He let a pass from Brett Favre slip threw his hands for a touchdown and also finished running a route one yard short of the first down marker.  Despite this, Harvin has been impressive during preseason.
  • Analysis: Despite his raw receiver skills, Harvin will still get enough touches elsewhere to be a viable starter.  Harvin will line up everywhere for Minnesota: out wide, in the slot, as the Wildcat QB, and as the primary kick returner. If your scoring system allows point for return yards, then that increases his value.  But he is not the punt returner and he won’t get many rushes out of the backfield due to who’s ahead of him in the RB depth chart.  Thus; he should be drafted behind guys with similar skills like Darren Sproles, Leon Washington, Jerious Norwood, and Felix Jones.
  • Observation: With his 88 yards against Baltimore and solid play all preseason, Mike Goodson has earned the respect of his coach, John Fox, and also earned himself more playing time during the regular season.  Fox told the Herald Online that Goodson has earned more than a “spot role” in the offense.
  • Analysis: DeAngelo Williams is still the alpha male among the Panthers running backs.  Jonathan Stewart has been plagued by an Achilles injury all preseason and has missed over 15 straight practices.  Once he is healthy then he will be the clear-cut #2 back in Carolina but he may not be completely healthy until midseason.  Until then, employ Goodson as you would have done for Stewart and if he gets off to a hot start, then he may make for good trade bait.

Preseason Week 3 - Sat Games Part 1

Saturday, August 29th, 2009

Here’s a quick summary of a couple of the NFL Preseason Week 3 Saturday games.

DETROIT LIONS
The Lions offense was able to move down the field against the Colts. This is likely partly due to an improvement by the Lions and Colts average defense.  Daunte Culpepper started the game. It’s looking to me like Culpepper is going to start the season at QB for Detroit. Especially since Stafford looked so raw in his game last week. Culpepper is reunited with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan from the big Vikings years, so he likely has an advantage in knowing the terminology and plays. Culpepper looked ok, some inaccurate throws. Matt Stafford got on the field in the second quarter. Stafford had one good throw down the seam to Calvin Johnson, otherwise lots of handoffs, short quick passes, likely designed to help his confidence.  Calvin Johnson looked good. Is clearly going to get jump balls and fade routes in the end zone.  Kevin Smith is getting a lot of screen passes and doing a great job of picking up first downs and lots of yards after catch. He’s very elusive and is making the most of his opportunities. Kevin Smith is also getting a few goal line carries, so he’s going to get a few opportunities to score close in on the ground. Jerome Felton is otherwise the goal line guy.  Detroit defense looks better than last year (how could it not), but is still pretty porous.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts looked sharp and in sync as you would expect. They confidently drove down the field and scored without a lot of resistance or challenge.  Peyton Manning looked sharp as usual. He’s clearly back to 100% for this season. Dallas Clark seems to be the favorite of Manning with several catches and an easy touchdown.  Anthony Gonzalez looks like he’s going to get more looks and TD opportunities.  Joseph Addai started the game and looked ok. Not sure if this means that Addai will be the primary back…it’s likely that Donald Brown will split carries. Donald Brown looks good.  Reggie Wayne looks ok, but didn’t get a lot of touches.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Saints offense got a quick start and drove the field against the raiders without much problem.  Drew Brees looked sharp, quick passes and on target. He’s ready for the regular season and only played the 1st quarter after racking up a score of 21 to 0.  Lance Moore was getting lots of touches and looked good with a TD.  Jeremy Shockey looked ok, not much of a threat, but gets his touches.  Mike Bell looked good, but hasn’t had a lot of room to run. He’s looking strong and quick.  The Saints defense still doesn’t look very good.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Raiders were not able to move the ball and got shut out in the first half.  They turned the ball over on first drive and later had a near interception. The Raider offense may not get much time on the field, since the Raider defense is allowing long drives by their opponents.  JaMarcus Russell looked mediocre, with some good passes mixed in with some off target throws and near interception.  Michael Bush looked decent but not as good as McFadden.  Darren McFadden looked very good…running with speed and power and now catches the ball too. Not sure why McFadden didn’t start.  Raiders defense is terrible. Saints were able to pretty much do what they wanted without much resistance….scoring 3 TDs to start the game.

Fantasy Overview – Preseason Week 2

Monday, August 24th, 2009

In three weeks, the NFL season will have arrived in full force. Until then, however, we’ll have to deal with exhibition contests in which players that won’t even be on practice squads have a lot to do with the final score. Still, there is fantasy information to be gleaned from these games, so let’s examine the proceedings that took place over the weekend.

Cincinnati 7, New England 6: A particularly meaningless contest that left fantasy owners in the cold about the progress of Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, who did not play due to his injury, most people probably only know that Chad Ochocinco kicked off once and also kicked an extra point. From a fantasy perspective, if looking for a runner to handcuff to Bengals starter Cedric Benson, Dede Dorsey ran four times for 60 yards while Brian Leonard carried the rock seven times for 34 yards, and is considered the favorite for the backup job.

Indianapolis 23, Philadelphia 15: Not very encouraging numbers running the ball for either team, as Eagles rookie LeSean McCoy managed just four yards on five carries, and Colts rookie Donald Brown posting similar numbers with five yards on three carries. Still, McCoy is an absolute necessity as a handcuff to Brian Westbrook, though you may have to take him earlier than you like in order to ensure a spot for him on your roster. As for Brown, he’s a popular pick to become the Colts’ full-time back this season, even with the presence of Joseph Addai. That may be pushing it, but 700-800 yards and five or so scores are realistic expectations.

Dallas 30, Tennessee 10: Most of the news surrounding this game is the hilarious fact that the brand-spankin’ new $1 billion stadium the Cowboys play in has a $40 million scoreboard that punters can shell with the ball when booting it away because it sits too low. Nice attention to detail there. As for game action, there was a lot for fantasy owners to like about what Cowboys gunslinger Tony Romo did, connecting on 18-of-24 passes for 192 yards. On the other side, Vince Young’s encouraging performance in the Titans’ first preseason game gave way to a performance that saw him go 3-for-9 for 33 yards and an interception.

Atlanta 20, St. Louis 13: Michael Turner was in 2008 form, running for 65 yards and one touchdown on the first series of the game before having a seat the rest of the night, so no worries there (except for the Rams defense, which nobody in their right mind would use in fantasy). For St. Louis, wideout Laurent Robinson continues what has been an impressive showing throughout camp with five catches for 65 yards. He’s a decent sleeper choice, and certainly someone to pay attention to.

Minnesota 17, Kansas City 13: So, Brett Favre is back (see his 2008 week-by-week fantasy points in the graph below), and he really showed, well, nothing, completing one of his four throws for four yards. He should get better, obviously, but he’s still a QB2 right now. For the Chiefs, Matt Cassel’s 99 passing yards and one touchdown pass were encouraging considering some have speculated that former Patriot is losing his grip on the starting job.

Cleveland 27, Detroit 10: Matthew Stafford struggled mightily, completing just five of his 13 passes for 34 yards and an interception, taking a step back in the race for a starting gig. Even if he improves mightily the rest of the way, drafting him is a risk not worth taking. The Browns’ quarterback job is still up for grabs, and Derek Anderson showed pretty well, completing 10 of his 13 throws, but also tossing a pick. In the sleeper category, rookie running back James Davis ran the ball 12 times for 116 yards and a score, including one run for 81 yards. Jamal Lewis’s best days are behind him, and Davis is someone who has the potential to eventually get a chance to contribute.

Miami 27, Carolina 17: Chad Pennington was steady as usual, and Ronnie Brown had a nice all-around game, with 74 total yards and a touchdown on 10 touches. Many believe he’s overrated, but with his ability to both run the ball and catch it, he offers a lot of value.

Washington 17, Pittsburgh 13: Two disappointing rookies from last season were notable here. For Pittsburgh, running back Rashard Mendenhall, ran for 5.2 yards a pop, amassing 26 yards on five carries, and is someone that has the potential to unseat Willie Parker. For Washington, tight end Fred Davis was on the receiving end of two passes, hauling them in for 31 yards and a score.

Tampa Bay 24, Jacksonville 23: Running back Chauncey Washington ran the ball four times for 32 yards, making his case to be the backup to starter Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jaguars. Luke McCown threw two scores for the Buccaneers, possibly gaining some ground in the race for the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback job.

New Orleans 38, Houston 14: A solid backup for Steve Slaton has yet to emerge, as Chris Brown ran for just five yards on four carries, and Ryan Moats ran for 25 yards on nine carries.

Green Bay 31, Buffalo 21: It was a so-so performance by Trent Edwards, even though he completed seven of his 11 passes. He only amassed a paltry 45 yards on those throws, and also threw an interception.

Chicago 17, NY Giants 3: Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw, a viable RB3, showed his explosiveness with a six-carry, 54-yard performance. Meanwhile, it was a much better showing for Bears signal-caller Jay Cutler, who was 8-of-13 for 121 yards and a score.

San Francisco 21, Oakland 20: Rookie running back Glen Coffee ran for 129 yards, and has quickly established himself as the necessary handcuff to Frank Gore. Coffee leads all players in rushing this preseason with nearly 200 yards.

San Diego 17, Arizona 6: Cardinals first-round pick Beanie Wells has yet to play in a preseason contest, giving Tim Hightower an opportunity to win the starting job. He didn’t hurt himself in this game, running for 42 yards on nine carries.

Seattle 27, Denver 13: The panic surrounding Kyle Orton should have ceased, or at least lowered somewhat after he completed 18 of his 26 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown, though he also threw a pick. Matt Hasselbeck also looked very good, reminding fantasy owners of what he did two years ago by slinging the ball 23 times with 16 completions for 171 yards and two scores.

Personnel Observations from Week 1 of Preseason

Tuesday, August 18th, 2009
  • The Cowboys will use the single set back as their base offense with a second tight end on the field instead of a fullback.  That means more playing time for the mercurial Martellus Bennett.  His ability to line up in the slot, out wide, and in the traditional TE position further enhance his value and though he won’t be a fantasy star like Jason Witten, this news makes him draftable and a safe start week-in and week-out.
  • Ravens Pro Bowler Le’Ron McClain will be used more as a blocking back than he was last year.  After leading the Ravens with 902 rushing yards in 2008, McClain will give up his carries to the duo of Willis McGahee and Ray Rice.  Those two combined for 13 touches in the first two series alone in Baltimore’s win over Washington while McClain did not get a touch the entire game.  McGahee is expected to get the bulk of the carries while Rice serves as the 3rd down back and McClain will remain the goal-line back which should help him retain some of the value he lost with the shift in roles.
  • Rookie running back Donald Brown impressed the Colts faithful with 58 yards on only five carries in their loss to the Vikings.  Brown has also impressed his head coach during training camp as Jim Caldwell told the Indianapolis Football Report that Brown would split carries with incumbent starter Joseph Addai and the back who gets more carries will vary week-to-week depending on the matchup.  This further drops Addai’s already-sinking stock and could spell the beginning of the end of his tenure in Indy.  He has one more year left on his contract after this season and could be jettisoned just as Edgerrin James was three years ago.
  • Patriots TE Ben Watson is in danger of losing his starting job.  Watson, who has missed 25 games in his five year career, missed the Patriots’ opening preseason game vs. Philadelphia with an undisclosed injury.  His replacement and former Jet, Chris Baker, shined in his absence catching two touchdowns.  But before you draft Baker, Watson, or any New England tight end remember that Patriots’ tight ends only combined for 31 receptions last year, third fewest in the NFL.  Continue to monitor the remaining preseason games to see if the loss of Josh McDaniels as OC means a gain in receiving opportunities for the New England tight ends.
  • The Bills remain committed to running a no-huddle offense.  Just as they did in the Hall of Fame Game, Buffalo QBs invoked memories of Jim Kelly and the K-Gun offense of the early nineties by eschewing the huddle vs. Chicago.  The change has been effective as the Bills have completed 77% of their passes in the two games, but it remains to be seen how effective the offense will be in a hostile environment.  Buffalo played at home vs. the Bears and at a neutral site in the HOF Game.  After playing at Green Bay in Week 3 and at Pittsburgh in Week 4, we should have a better view on just how effective the no-huddle will be for Buffalo.
  • Laurent Robinson will serve as the de-facto #1 receiver for St. Louis until Donnie Avery returns from injury.  Though he had 52 yards against the Jets while playing with the first team Friday night, Robinson only had 52 receiving yards all of last season.  Also, although the Rams have shifted to running the West Coast Offense, QB Marc Bulger is still struggling to get rid of the ball quickly.  He was sacked on each of the three possessions he was in for.  But next week we should get a clearer picture as to whether this had more to do with the Rams’ offensive line, or the Jets’ new attacking defensive scheme led by Rex Ryan.
  • Jacksonville is using former receiver, Ernest Wilford, is an H-back role this season.  In his first play of their preseason game vs. Miami, Wilford lined up in the backfield, then motioned to the left slot before the snap.  On that play Wilford caught a pass from Chad Henne, eluded a tackler, and raced to the endzone for a 33-yard TD reception.  If he can improve his blocking, and Coach Sparano says he is, then he could be an excellent pickup in deeper leagues provided that he has TE eligibility.
  • Common belief was that once Derrick Ward left for Tampa Bay, Ahmad Bradshaw would be the one to inherit his 180 or so carries as Brandon Jacobs’ backup.  While that may happen, it’s not set in stone as Danny Ware’s skill set is more similar to Ward than any of the other Giants RBs.  Though he only averaged 1.8 ypc on 12 carries in Monday’s game vs. Carolina, Ware contributed in the passing game with 43 yards and a TD.  Jacobs and Bradshaw only combined for 11 receptions last year so it appears as though the backup position is Ware’s job to lose.

Fantasy Consequences - Week 1 of the Preseason

Monday, August 17th, 2009

Week 1 of the NFL’s preseason has come, and while every football fan probably watched their team with at least some level of interest, fantasy owners in particular were likely examining what information they could glean out of the contests. To aid in that pursuit, let’s take a look at the games played so far (there are two Monday night games – Jacksonville at Miami and Carolina at NY Giants) and the fantasy consequences of each.

New England 27, Philadelphia 25: One Mr. Bundchen, Tom Brady, was back to his old tricks, going 10-of-15 for 100 yards, one touchdown pass and one interception while staying healthy, which was just fine. It was interesting that Patriots tight end Chris Baker was on the receiving end of both of Brady’s scoring passes. As for Philly, rookie running back LeSean McCoy’s 10 carries for 55 yards made all those that will handcuff him to Brian Westbrook feel good.

Baltimore 23, Washington 0: At least Baltimore’s defense was in mid-season form. Washington did very little, and had just 48 offensive plays all night. In contrast, the Ravens had 54 passing plays, 15 of which came from Joe Flacco, who did a solid job by completing nine of them. On the running back front, Ray Rice (whose fantasy points from last year you can see on the right) carried the ball five times for 22 yards and Willis McGahee toted the rock four times for 26 yards, but Rice’s three catches for 38 yards trumped McGahee’s one catch for seven yards, and is a further indication why Rice is the favorite to be the starting running back.

Pittsburgh 20, Arizona 10: It was ho-hum for Arizona, but worth noting was that Matt Leinart was a bit better than Brian St. Pierre in the battle for that team’s backup job. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall didn’t do himself any favors by running for only 2.7 yards per carry on nine attempts, but wideouts Shaun McDonald and Limas Sweed were productive. Sweed has big-time potential, but he was useless last season, and needs to step up this year. Still, he’s someone fantasy owners may want to keep in the back of their minds.

Oakland 31, Dallas 10: Dallas wideout Sam Hurd made the most noise by far in the team’s wide receiver battle, as he caught five passes for 79 yards, while no other wideout caught more than one pass. Darren McFadden used a 45-yard rumble to amass 63 yards on just four carries, showing the type of explosiveness that makes fantasy owners believe he can have a breakout campaign.

St. Louis 23, NY Jets 20: Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez played just one series, but that was enough for him to complete three of his four throws for 88 yards and be named the starter in the team’s next preseason game. For the Rams, the early battle for the team’s No. 2 running back job is being led by Samkon Gado, who ran for 93 yards, including one 77-yard touchdown gallop.

Minnesota 13, Indianapolis 3: Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good by completing 10 of his 13 passes for the Vikings, while the man he is battling for the starting QB job, Tarvaris Jackson, completed only seven of his 15 throws. Rookie runner Donald Brown started off nicely for the Colts, running the ball five times for and excellent 58 yards, including a 38-yard tote.

New Orleans 17, Cincinnati 7: Cedric Benson did what Cedric Benson always does - ran for under 4.0 yard per carry. His 28 yards on eight carries (3.5 ypc) does little to inspire those that have been burned by the former first-round bust in the past. Speaking of busts - okay, possible busts - Reggie Bush continues to show he makes an outstanding slot receiver for a running back, carrying three times and gaining 15 feet.

San Francisco 17, Denver 16: Disaster, thy name is Kyle Orton. Fantasy owners will need to see more than three interceptions in 16 passes from the new Broncos signal-caller before embracing him on their roster. So too will Denver fans. For the Niners, tight end Vernon Davis proved he could get downfield a bit, with two receptions for 41 yards.

Detroit 27, Atlanta 26: Not much happened to speak of for the Falcons, besides losing to Detroit after being up by nine with under 3:00 to play. Preseason or not, that’s a poor way to start. A much better way to start is by doing what Michael Turner did, running for 63 yards and a score on six carries. Matthew Stafford was a bit up and down for the Lions, connecting on half of his 14 passes, throwing for a score but also tossing a pick.

Buffalo 27, Chicago 20: Not the greatest of beginnings for Jay Cutler. While he wasn’t as terrible as the man he switched teams with, he completed just five of his 10 passes and threw an awful interception, chucking the ball in the air after feeling some pressure. Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards was very good, however, despite not having Terrell Owens. He completed each of the 10 throws he made.

Green Bay 17, Cleveland 0: Some sizzling quarterback race in Cleveland. Brady Quinn did complete seven of his 11 passes, but for only 68 yards, and he also tossed an interception. Derek Anderson, meanwhile, threw twice and completed one - to the wrong team. All the Green Bay running backs did a nice job, and it was good to see Brandon Jackson - a must-handcuff to Ryan Grant - deliver 41 yards on eight carries.

Tennessee 27, Tampa Bay 20: Little seemed to have been done to uncoil the quarterback situation in Tampa, as Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman and Luke McCown were each okay. For the Titans, rookie wideout Kenny Britt started off with a bang, with five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. He’s definitely someone to look out for in the rookie wide receiver class.

Houston 16, Kansas City 10: Someone needs to be the backup and possible handcuff to Steve Slaton, and both Ryan Moats and Chris Brown got off to solid starts. Moats ran the ball 10 times for 52 yards, while Brown carried it six times for 25 yards and a score. On the Chiefs side, not much could be taken away from the start Matt Cassel had, as he completed just two of his five throws.

Seattle 20, San Diego 14: Neither T.J. Duckett nor Julius Jones ran for 4.0 yards per carry in what could be a sign of things to come this season in the Seattle running game. Then again, neither did LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproles in this contest that told very little about either team’s stars.

Ranking the Top-50 Running Backs

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

After recently unveiling the top-25 quarterback rankings, it’s time to move on to the most important position in fantasy football: running back. Due to its vital nature, we’re going much deeper with the quarterbacks, taking a look at the top-50 runners.

1. Adrian Peterson: An across-the-board choice for most as the No. 1 back, nobody will be surprised if he puts together the sixth season ever of at least 2,000 rushing yards. As it is, his 1,760 rushing yards last season ranked 21st in history in a single season.

2. Michael Turner: Turner’s 376 carries last season are a bit of a concern to some. Outside of that, there’s little reason to think he won’t be good for double-digit touchdowns once again.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew: His first season without Fred Taylor promises to be a big one for the diminutive back. Among backs with at least 150 carries, only DeAngelo Williams and Brandon Jacobs averaged fewer carries per touchdown than MJD’s mark of 16.4.

4. Matt Forte:A major find as a rookie, he did it all for the Bears a year ago. As the graph below shows, he was fifth in fantasy points with 12 total touchdowns and over 1,700 total yards. He ran for just 3.9 yards-per-carry last season, but that number should improve with an opened-up passing game led by Jay Cutler.

5. Steven Jackson: Should he stay healthy all season, he’s a candidate to lead the league in all-purpose yards, and lead fantasy backs in scoring. There’s precious few other offensive options in St. Louis, so Jackson should see more than his share of touches.

6. Chris Johnson: LenDale White won’t continue to take every goal-line carry from Johnson, who still ran for nine scores and added one more via reception. It’ll be difficult for him to replicate his yards-per-carry average of 4.9 from last year, but that will be fine if the trade-off is a few more touchdowns from the two-yard line.

7. DeAngelo Williams: Twenty touchdowns isn’t happening again; that was a one-time shot. Jonathan Stewart should continue to evolve and steal some of those scores, but even so, Williams has proven throughout his career to be dynamic with the ball in his hands and should surpass 10 scores yet again.

8. LaDainian Tomlinson: Reports of his demise have been somewhat exaggerated. No, he isn’t going to score you 31 total touchdowns like he did in 2006. But even if he gets 8-10, with 1,400 combined rushing and receiving yards, is that so bad?

9. Marion Barber: The Barbarian is more than just a bruiser, as he also has soft hands which helped him grab 52 passes in 2008. However, fantasy owners probably better remember his untimely injury situation last season which helped him amass a total of two fantasy points from Weeks 14-16. That was simply bad luck, and had it come in Weeks 4-6 instead, we’re not talking about it.

10. Steve Slaton: The Texans were criticized for taking Slaton in the third round because the rest of the world figured he was too small to be an every-down back. Whoops. He proved everyone wrong with nearly 1,700 total yards and 10 scores.

11. Clinton Portis: It seems as if Portis has been in the league forever, but he’ll only be 28 when the season starts. He’s one of the more reliable players in fantasy, having played fewer than 15 games just twice in his seven seasons.

12. Brandon Jacobs: A bulldozer who is one of the most enjoyable players to watch, Jacobs is also enjoyable to have on your fantasy team. Inside the five-yard-line, good luck stopping him.

13. Frank Gore: With 49ers head coach Mike Singletary vowing a renewed faith in the running game in San Francisco, Gore and his fantasy owners should be the beneficiary. This is especially true if the rookie Glen Coffee - reach in the third round - can’t become a dependable backup.

14. Brian Westbrook: The single scariest player in all of fantasy football, Westbrook’s injury history is far too checkered to ignore. He’s already getting over an ankle injury that has him missing reps in training camp.

15. Ryan Grant: Grant disappointed last season by scoring just four rushing touchdowns. That’s not the production fantasy owners were expecting, especially because he was ninth in the league with over 1,200 rushing yards last season. He should rebound somewhat, but don’t be totally shocked if Brandon Jackson starts to eat up some of his playing time.

16. Pierre Thomas: He’s the best running back on the New Orleans roster, and if sanity prevails, will be the Week 1 starter and get the goal-line carries.

17. Joseph Addai: No doubt he busted out for fantasy owners far and wide last season. But that just means he should be available in later rounds than usual. With Donald Brown on board, Addai’s 2007 numbers may be unattainable, but he’ll certainly do better than what we all suffered through last season.

18. Ronnie Brown: Brown should take even more carries from Ricky Williams this season, and has the receiving skills to produce more than the 33 catches he amassed last season. Hopefully, he gets the opportunity.

19. Marshawn Lynch: The three-game suspension at the beginning of the year will hurt Lynch, but his ability to catch the ball as well as run with it out of the backfield is too much to ignore.

20. Darren McFadden: If those turf toe issues are behind him, watch out. He’s got all the physical talent to become a perennial top-10 fantasy back.

21. Jonathan Stewart: Inconsistency plagued him last season, and fantasy owners couldn’t know on a week-to-week basis what they were getting. In his second season, don’t expect quite the weekly contrast.

22. LenDale White: Don’t expect 15 rushing touchdowns again this season. He’ll lose some of those to backfield mate Johnson.

23. Larry Johnson: There’s still something left in the tank for Johnson, so don’t count him completely out just yet. His days of being a fantasy stalwart are gone, but he can still be useful to fantasy owners.

24. Thomas Jones: He’s 31, the Jets just drafted Shonn Greene, Leon Washington has made his presence felt, and he’s not thrilled with his contract. Jones will regress more than any other fantasy back from 2008.

25. Derrick Ward: Goes to the Bucs to form another 1-2 punch, this time with Earnest Graham. Look for Ward to get the bulk of the carries for the team, but it’s a question as to how many looks inside the 10-yard line he’ll get over Graham.

Best of the Rest

26. Reggie Bush
27. Kevin Smith
28. Le’Ron McClain
29. Chris Wells
30. Jamal Lewis
31. Cedric Benson
32. Willie Parker
33. Earnest Graham
34. Donald Brown
35. Julius Jones
36. Knowshon Moreno
37. Ahmad Bradshaw
38. Tim Hightower
39. LeSean McCoy
40. Maurice Morris
41. Rashard Mendenhall
42. Darren Sproles
43. Sammy Morris
44. Willis McGahee
45. Fred Jackson
46. Felix Jones
47. Chester Taylor
48. Fred Taylor
49. Ricky Williams
50. Shonn Greene

Five Phenomenal Fantasy Football Handcuffs

Monday, June 29th, 2009

Fantasy football drafts are always an uncertainty. Injuries can kill a season for a fantasy team, especially at the running back position. That’s why we draft “handcuffs” - backup running backs who stand a legitimate chance of starting at some point during the season because the starter is a solid back who commands attention because of a history of injuries or some other reason.

The following handcuffs are your best bets for the 2009 season.

LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - LaDainian Tomlinson is a stellar running back, but there are reasons to suspect 2009 may be a season fantasy players regret if they don’t lock up Darren Sproles. Tomlinson has finished every season of his 8-year career with at least 340 touches and he just turned 30 - those are both solid reasons to suspect he’s due for an injury at some point in the near future. Sproles averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 11.8 yards per reception last season. If Tomlinson is injured, he’s a capable starting back.

Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson - Lynch suffered a minor injury this offseason and will be suspended at least a couple games this season. Jackson had a solid showing in 2008 when he did get touches, and word on the street is he’ll be lining up more at wide receiver this season. Last year he finished with 37 receptions, so fantasy players can expect more this season. More significant, in flex position leagues, Jackson can garner starts on a semi-weekly basis. And if Lynch does suffer an injury at some point during the season Jackson could break out.

Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene - The 31-year old Jones is coming off four consecutive 320-touch seasons, making him a liability in some leagues. If your league’s draft is sometime before August or in the early part of the month, you may be able to draft Greene at a bargain. Trade rumors are circulating and Jones may be traded at some point during that month, so if you can land Greene he may wind up the biggest “boom” pick of your draft.

Joseph Addai and Donald Brown - Joseph Addai has been one of the league’s most disappointing young players. He missed several games last season and finished with just 155 carries for 544 yards. Donald Brown has reportedly looked very good in training camp, though he has struggled to make catches out of the backfield. Still, if he plays well throughout camp and improves his receiving skills before the season he can steal a fair number of touches from Addai or even supplant him on the roster. Addai’s status as a starter is questionable and his injuries make him a question mark.

Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy - The Philadelphia Eagles don’t run the ball often, but when they have in the past Westbrook has been the one constant who made it worth changing pace. Westbrook’s offseason ankle injury raises questions, however, because he hasn’t played a complete season in his career. McCoy is the rookie back who can steal carries during the season, especially out of the wildcat offense. He’ll be the starter if Westbrook goes down, and he’s built for this type of offense.

NFL Draft - Fantasy Implications and More

Monday, April 27th, 2009

With the NFL Draft now complete, analysts across the country will now put on their teacher’s hats and hand out grades to each team. We’re going to go a different way and take a look at some of the fantasy implications of the draft, along with some other thoughts. So, in the immortal words of the Joker, here … we … go:

 - Chris “Beanie” Wells: Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals with the second-to-last pick in the first round, Wells immediately becomes a RB2 for fantasy owners. Edgerrin James seems destined to get cut, and Tim Hightower did little to establish himself as anything more than a decent backup, despite his touchdown vulturing.

- Michael Crabtree: There really isn’t any reason that Crabtree shouldn’t be starting opposite Isaac Bruce in Week 1 for San Francisco. His diva attitude apparently turned a number of teams off prior to the draft, leading to him slipping to the  10th overall pick, but it worked out well for the 49ers and fantasy owners alike. Call him a legit WR3 to start the year, with the potential to do even more.

- Knowshon Moreno: We’re not entirely sure where Moreno fits with the Broncos in terms of playing time, not because of lack of talent, but because Denver has 11 running backs on it’s roster. That number will certainly come down before the season starts, but Moreno will still be sharing time with a number of veterans, and even if he does get his share of the carries,  it’s difficult to envision him as anything more than later-round depth for fantasy owners.

- Donald Brown: This was an interesting selection by the Colts, who certainly had other needs than a backup to Joseph Addai. Still, Addai was a killer for fantasy owners last season, as he had just four games that he averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry (not counting his one carry, four-yard performance in Week 17), and one contest where he gained 100 yards. All this for a guy who was undoubtedly a first-round selection in fantasy drafts. Due to that performance, Brown becomes an essential handcuff, but likely one you’ll have to select a bit earlier than you may truly want to.

- James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga: This is for the IDP owners out there. As the first two middle linebackers taken, Laurinaitis by the St. Louis Rams and Maualuga by the Cincinnati Bengals, each should become immediate starters. We think Laurinaitis could have the better overall value because he has the ability to play all three downs, whereas Maualuga is likely only a two-down ‘backer. But both will have value to IDP owners.

DRAFTS WE DIDN’T LIKE

Oakland Raiders - We’re as confused  as everyone else as to what the hell the Raiders are doing. The knock isn’t on the players they chose. It’s possible Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell become perennial All-Pros and Hall of Fame players. We guess. The issue is that they could have had each of these players later down the line. Especially Mitchell. If they felt that strongly about him, all accounts are they still could have gotten him in the fourth round - and though it would have still been called a reach, it would have been far less egregious.

Detroit Lions - I’ve been on record saying that I have little faith in Matthew Stafford, and greatly prefer Mark Sanchez. In time, we’ll see who develops into the better signal-caller. I dont’ quite understand the selection of tight end Brandon Pettigrew when the team  had such bigger needs elsewhere. They would have been wise to try and trade back and take one of the aforementioned middle linebackers in Laurinaitis or Maualuga.

DRAFTS WE LIKED

- Philadelphia Eagles: Getting Jeremy Maclin to line up alongside DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis gives the Eagles arguably the fastest trio of wideouts in the NFL. Taking running back LeSean McCoy - an underrated back in our estimation - to backup and eventually fill the shoes of Brian Westbrook was a great move, as were the fifth-round selections of tight end Cornelius Ingram and defensive back Victor “Macho” Harris.

- Chicago Bears:  Jarron Gilbert will only help fortify the Bears’ defensive line, as he is a great athlete for a defensive tackle who can get to the quarterback. Receiver Juaquin Iglesias brings a much-needed refined route runner to Chicago, and he was a player who very easily could have gone in the early portions of the second round. However, one of the steals of the draft came in the team’s selection of cornerback D.J. Moore from Vanderbilt. Only his relative lack of speed and height, at five-foot-nine, hurt him. He played offense, defense, and special teams at Vandy, and all he did was produce, with 13 interceptions in three seasons.