Login

Login
No account yet?
Register

Posts Tagged ‘Draft’

Fantasy Football Twist: Drafting the worst players for the best score

Saturday, December 13th, 2008

 

This week in fantasy football twist, we will look at a truly different way to play fantasy football. It may be fun and it may not be, but it definitely is a twist.

 

Normal leagues score points based on touchdowns, yards, receptions, carries, field goals….etc. Well what if we flipped the script and the league scored points based on interceptions, fumbles, least amount of yards and penalizes for touchdowns, 100 yard production and so on.

 

Do I sound crazy yet?

 

This may not be too out of the box since last year I had a league that rewarded 1 point for each return yard. This automatically vaulted Joshua Cribbs and Devin Hester to the top, while rendering Randy Moss useless. Moss had an amazing season but it was Darren Sproles who was scoring 200 points per game.

 

So the goal is to draft the worst players that do record stats and actually plays. That means they must be a starter and they must be horrible. Every week instead of hoping that your payer won’t get hurt, you hope that he doesn’t get benched. Every week the waivers will be listing the worst players that still happen to start for their team.

 

Adrian Peterson is not a number 1 draft pick anymore, in fact he may not be drafted at all. Nope, you might want to draft Brett Favre who has 15 interceptions, or Marc Bulger who has a 68 quarterback rating and has lost 4 fumbles. Make sure you avoid Peyton Manning or Drew Brees because they will cost you with their high touchdown total.

 

With running backs, in the beginning of the season Edgerrin James and Chris Perry would have been a great duo, although they have lost their starting duties, you would need to pick up DeShaun Foster and Cedric Benson.

 

The Bengals and Lions DST would actually be a number 1 defense, with some many points and yards racked up against them. Could you imagine drafting the St. Louis Rams in the 4th round.   

 

Imagine the fantasy football articles; like “Start em or Sit em”. It would go something like this:

 

Daunte Culpepper is a great start this week because he is horrible and will go up against the Giants defense who leads the league in sacks. He should get you a fair amount of points with interceptions and a low passing total.

 

However, you should sit Drew Brees. He has an unfavorable matchup against the Chiefs and his huge yardage totals will hurt your team……

 This might be absurd or it may be intriguing but there is nothing like a Raider’s fan being proud to say that JaMarcus Russel is his starting fantasy quarterback.

LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Adrian Peterson: LT is Still No. 1.

Monday, August 4th, 2008

(After reading this, see my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

There is no question that if given the chance, I would take Ladainian Tomlinson over Adrian Peterson.  Why?  Because LT has history on his side.  But even if he didn’t, he has more opportunity to produce than Peterson does does.

Before getting into the differences, it is enlightening to examine the similarities.  First, both running backs are highly talented.  Both have the ability to not only run the ball, but are excellent pass catchers.  Second, they each have a top-rate offensive line behind which to run (no changes from last year’s starting lines).  Third, both teams have about the same strength of schedule when considering the rush defense of the teams they will face.  In fact, both will face the Colts, Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons.  Fourth, of their first five games, three are away.  Finally, they both have their bye week right in the middle of the season.  If you truly want to compare who is better, this is the season to do it.

Now for the differences all of which support my conclusion that LT should be taken over Peterson. 

- First, LT has a much better quarterback (you can easily compare their performance head-to-head using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool), which prevents the defense from focusing all of its energies on stopping the running game.

- Second, LT’s first five games are against weak rush defenses, allowing on average 137.5 rushing yards and one rushing TD per game.  Peterson’s first five games are against rush defenses allowing on average 103 rushing yards and ½ rushing TD per game.  Momentum is everything.  LT will be off to a great start and Peterson will be seen as struggling.

- This leads to the third difference: with Peterson struggling, the Vikings are more likely to give runs to Chester Taylor, a dependable backup who has scored 13 TDs and run over 2000 yards over the past two seasons.  LT’s backup Michael Turner scored 3 TDs and ran just over 800 yards during the past two seasons and is now in Atlanta. (You can see both running back’s performance over the past 3 years using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool).  I am sorry to say that Darren Sproles is no Michael Turner.  LT said just last week, “In my mind I’m going to have to feel like I have to stay in the game.”San Diego Union-Tribune, July 31, 2008.

- Fourth, this is LT’s second year under Head Coach Norv Turner and it took LT about 4 games last year to get acclimated.  This year everyone is on the same page.

- Finally, it is the final three games that count in fantasy, and while the difference is not as dramatic as the first five games, LT still has the edge with the last three facing rush defenses allowing on average 128 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.  Peterson will face rush defenses allowing on average 113 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.

While I do not believe AP will regress during his second year, it is not uncommon for a rookie running back to have a great first year and then fail miserably during his second (e.g Frank Gore, Cadillac Williams).  Even if I could foretell Peterson would continue to play like a star, looking at each player’s situation and the teams they will be playing against, I would still take LaDainian.

(If you are still not sure, take a look at my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

 

Fantasy Football Question - Larry Johnson

Sunday, May 25th, 2008

In 2005-2006, Johnson posted unbelievable numbers. In just 25 starts (32 total games) L.J. carried 752 times - including a season with an unheard-of 416 carries - and plowed his way to 3539 rushing yards and 37 touchdowns. He added to those totals 74 receptions for 753 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns, ensuring more than 2000 yards from scrimmage each season.

Unfortunately, many experts also feared that he was on pace to break down. Even though he had carried for more yards in 2006 than the year before, his yard per carry average had dropped by 9/10 of a point. And, really, it was a 457-touch season. That’s just begging for a mid-year breakdown unless there is a running back capable of spelling him every few carries during games to preserve his energy.

That didn’t happen.

In 2007, a frustrated Johnson made just 8 starts and criticized Kansas City’s coaching staff, comparing coaching to a chess match. Johnson carried for more than 100 yards in three games, unable to do so with fewer than 24 carries, and scored just two touchdowns in the first seven weeks.

Interestingly, he caught 30 passes in those 8 starts, putting him on pace for a 60-reception season. Between 2005-2006 Johnson caught 74 passes. 

Also, Johnson held out in 2007 for a new deal, which he got before the season. It’s now a question whether he will ever run with the same sort of intensity he did before the new contract.

That brings us to the 2008 season, Johnson’s second since inking that big deal. Herm Edwards has promised he will not run his former Pro Bowl back as hard, meaning no more 350-carry seasons. The biggest issue, however, has nothing to do with the coaching staff or Johnson. It’s the passing game; there is none. And that means Johnson is going to see more 8-man fronts until KC proves it can pass the ball downfield effectively.

This season won’t be a smooth one for L.J. He’s coming off an injury and missed camp time Thursday as a precautionary measure. He’s a risk for injury and I don’t expect his yard per carry average to be much higher than 4.0.

But there was some reason for hope in 2007. Johnson did break 100 yards in three of his final five games and he scored in each of his final three appearances. Also, more receptions means his role in the offense was expanding to benefit the passing game.

Assuming 16 starts, expect numbers something like this (though these are subject to change and likely will as we get closer to the season and I do a more thorough breakdown of the Chiefs): 310 carries, 1250 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 45 receptions, 400 rushing yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns.

2008 NFL Post-Draft Analysis: Buffalo Bills

Saturday, May 10th, 2008

First Impressions - The Bills landed top corner in the first round of the draft in Leodis McKelvin. He has the potential to make an immediate impact and improve a defense that ranked 29th in passing yards allowed. And for a team that may someday want to dethrone perennial frontrunner New England, stopping the pass is priority number one.

From that standpoint, this was a successful draft.Chris Ellis is a great pass rushing threat while Alvin Bowne has coverage skills at linebacker. And, as stated before, McKelvin and fourth round CB Reggie Corner (fitting name, no?) both add depth and ball skills to a position that needs it.

Offensively, the Bills added a pair of wide receivers. Last season no one had more than 55 receptions or caught more than five touchdowns. Part of the problem was a lack of targets. James Hardy brings a lot of athleticism to the table and could easily earn a starting spot year one whereas Steve Johnson is more of a possession receiver who adds more depth. 

Fantasy Impact - James Hardy might start opposite Lee Evans this year. And if last season was any indication, that means mixed results. He could easily tally 50+ receptions in that role, but it’s something of a question as to how many touchdowns he’ll score. The Bills quarterbacks threw a grand total of twelve a year ago. 12. And Trent Edwards threw just seven. At this point, unless the quarterbacks show more potential, there’s little reason to invest a pick in the team’s number two wide out unless you play in a deep league (5 receivers on roster/12+ teams).

2008 NFL Post-Draft Analysis: Cincinnati Bengals

Thursday, May 8th, 2008

First Impressions - The Bengals came to the draft with a lengthy list of needs and managed to nail them all with smart picks in every round. Keith Rivers is a leader by nature, so he’ll instantly bring help to a defense that needs an identity. Expect a big impact from him year one.

And with the troubles stemming from Ocho Cinco’s unhappiness and the departure of Chris Henry, the Bengals wisely picked up Jerome Simpson in the second round. But they didn’t stop there, adding two more receivers before the draft was finished. One more reason the team stockpiled receivers: Hoosh is in the final year of his contract and the team might be a bit worried his demands might be too high.

Another big pick: interior tackle Pat Sims in the third round. The Bengals aren’t too solid against the run and Sims is a monster in the middle. He’ll push a pile back and instantly improve this defense, making him my favorite pick of Cincy’s draft.

Put it all together and you have a very solid draft for the Bengals, a team that needed some new faces. 

Fantasy Impact - Will Chad Johnson sit? That question could strongly affect the impact of Jerome Simpson. No doubt he’ll be slot receiver year one, but if Ocho is out, bump him up on your draft board. The Bengals have a good passing game year in and out and Simpson should be projected accordingly.

2008 NFL Draft Team Needs: Dallas Cowboys

Thursday, April 24th, 2008

Wide Receiver - Terrell Owens is still an elite wide receiver, arguably the best in pro football. But he’s getting older. And Terry Glenn is just about finished, too, leaving the team’s future with only Patrick Crayton. Locking up a good field-stretcher would be a smart idea.

Running Back - Marion Barber is the guy in Dallas, but the team doesn’t have a real 3rd down back or change of pace back. Because while it’s fun to watch Barber push, drag, and move defenders up the field, the team could also use an elusive back who can make catches out of the backfield and establish himself as a threat on obvious passing downs.

Cornerback - Depth is an issue and the Cowboys should really try to get a good nickel back after the departure of Jaques Reeves. And since Terence Newman turns 30 this year and Anthony Henry is already 31, the team could also stand to get younger.

Number to Know - 10 - The number of times during the first 13 games of the season the Cowboys scored 28 or more points on offense. The team’s record over that span: 12-1. Over the final four games, including the postseason, the offense averaged just over 12 points per game and the record reflected that, as Dallas won just one game.

2008 NFL Draft Team Needs: Houston Texans

Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Offensive Tackle - Really, how long can the team ignore that the left tackle position is still unsettled? Outside of quarterback, it is arguably the most important position on the offense. A day one pick would be a wise decision that would go a long way in giving Matt Schaub better protection in the pocket.

Outside Linebacker - The Texans pass rush just isn’t getting it done. Giving the corps some speed (and adding some depth where it is needed) would be nice.

Cornerback - No one on the team had more than 3 interceptions last season and only two players had more than 1. And since Dunta Robinson had a serious knee injury and will likely miss a good part of the 2008 season, it’s important the team adds some talent soon.

Number to Know - (-13) - The team’s turnover ratio last season, a big reason for the 8-8 finish.

2008 NFL Draft Team Needs: Arizona Cardinals

Wednesday, April 16th, 2008

Defensive End - Darnell Docket - solid. Antonio Smith - not so much. The depth is a bit frightning and should be taken care of sometime in the draft, perhaps with a day one pick. 

Cornerback - The starters are competent, but neither is anything at all resembling a shutdown corner. And beyond those two, depth is a serious concern. The team should use a first round pick to remedy the situation. 

Running Back - The offense was alright for much of the season, but it turned the ball over far too often and the wheels fell off in the running game. And with Edgerrin James turning 30 before the start of the season, one wonders if he can handle another 300+ carry season (basically carrying the entire load by himself) without either breaking down or seeing his yard per carry average slip further.

Number to Know - 1 - The number of players on the team with more than 26 carries last season. 

2008 NFL Draft Team Needs: Detroit Lions

Wednesday, April 16th, 2008

Inside Linebacker - The Lions don’t have a solid starter in the middle of the defense. In fact, the team doesn’t have a mediocre starter. This is definitely an area of weakness that should be addressed sooner than later.

Offensive Tackle - The offensive line is a serious issue. Kitna was put on the turf enough far too often last season while the running game never took off, leaving the Lions with a lackluster offense as the season waned to a close.

Running Back - Kevin Jones is gone and that leaves the offense with little talent and depth. Tatum Bell is an athletic runner, but not a true starter. If the team doesn’t use the draft to add a solid running back not named “McFadden” to the roster, it could mean a running back-by-committee approach.

Number to Know - 32 - Where the defense ranked in total defense and points allowed.

2008 NFL Draft Team Needs: New Orleans Saints

Friday, April 11th, 2008

Cornerback — Yes, the team added Aaron Glenn to bolster the corps, but it would be nice to see add a little youth to improve one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, which ranked 30th in yards, 31st in touchdowns, and 28th in interceptions.

Outside Linebacker — Neither starter at linebacker — Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle — can’t be replaced, and depth is a concern.

Defensive Tackle — The Saints need to get younger at defensive tackle, where Brian Young and Hollis Thomas are both in their 30s. And since the team had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing 4.9 yards per carry, it won’t hurt to bring in some new faces.

Number to Know — 16 — The number of sacks the Saints allowed in 2007, an outstanding total that is a testament to the strength of the offensive line.