Any given preseason, if I ask you, who you think will win MVP this season, you’ll probably throw out some names like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, or LaDainian Tomlinson. Maybe not those exact players, but you get the idea: the names you pick will always, always, be on offense and they’ll probably line up in the backfield. Before the season starts no one is gutsy enough to say, “Actually, I think Brian Urlacher has a real shot this season.”

I could argue this is because of fantasy football and fans today care more about numbers than in the past, and to some extent perhaps this is true. It’s why most fans look at Trent Edwards and see a player who has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in just one game this season, rather than a quarterback who has been pretty solid in his second season as a pro. He hit some rough spots but his wins/losses column (7-6) is pretty good, considering the team around him.

But fantasy football isn’t why fans don’t look to defense when picking an MVP. No, this habit goes back to the idea the quarterback is the most important player on the field, and the only time another position should win the award is when his value compensates for the lack of value at quarterback and keeps his team competitive. The only position where you can be certain a player is making this level of impact is running back.

Look at defense. Now, I know a disruptive defensive lineman is important, but is he the most valuable player in the NFL? Can he win football games? This argument is difficult because defenders rarely score touchdowns. They can be part of a unit that prevents opponents from scoring points, but is that the same thing?

Look at Dallas Cowboys defensive end DeMarcus Ware. If he tackles the quarterback behind the line of scrimmage three times this weekend in Philadelphia, he’ll break the single season sack record with 23. He’s been pretty doggone disruptive this season, no doubt about it. After all, one can only guess the number of times he’s pressured the quarterback and hurried him into a bad decision or the number of times he drew an extra blocker, freeing up someone else on the defense to sack the quarterback or create a disruption. He forces opposing offensive coordinators to game plan differently, to focus more attention on him. Dallas’s defense has been pretty good this season, ranking 4th against the pass and 8th in total yards allowed, but can one argue he is the league’s most valuable player?

How do we measure the value of an individual player in a game which stresses teamwork? Numbers, usually, but those numbers are dependent on the actions of the players surrounding the star, whether he is on offense or defense. Tom Brady passed for 50 touchdowns last season and certainly deserved the MVP award, but watching games in which he played at least one thing was certainly obvious: his offensive line gave him more than enough time in the pocket.

Players do not make things happen without the support of teammates, not in football. In baseball, sure, it’s possible. In basketball, yeah, there’s no doubt. But in football, players are in sync when things go right and out of sync when things go wrong. A quarterback may pass for 50 touchdowns in a season, but someone caught those passes and others threw blocks to give him an extra split-second to make a decision.

No, numbers alone do not justify an MVP. Intangible qualities, those things we have no certain way of measuring, such as leadership and tenacity and coolness under pressure, do. There are times a player may not put up the numbers of his peers, but he can rally his teammates around him and push them to give everything they have and just a little bit more. He is a valuable player.

Records are broken as a result of an alignment of the stars and a dash of luck for good measure. Teams winning games and performing beyond expectations or realistic boundaries; teams playing better than they look on paper; this is where we should look to find the MVP. Forget the stars that turn our fantasy teams into juggernauts; let’s instead look to the players who turn their teams into winners, even against the odds.

A lot of college football fans will tell you the BCS is terrible, unfair, and the goofiest invention sports could create. They’ll point to the 65-team college basketball bracket, praise March Madness, and tell you a playoff system is the way to go.

But too often overlooked is the NFL’s playoff system and its flaws. As much as I love the NFL, it’s hardly perfect, and one of the league’s most glaring issues is a postseason system rewarding teams that do well enough to win their respective division, while telling other teams with better records, tough luck but maybe next year.

After this weekend, either the Denver Broncos or San Diego Chargers will make the postseason with fewer than ten wins. If the Chargers win, they’ll have eight. Now, neither of these two teams has shown it is a legitimate playoff team. Yet one will host a playoff game the first week of the postseason because it was the “best” team in a bad division.

Is this fair? Shouldn’t we be bothered by the fact another team with a better record and a better shot at winning in the postseason will not be afforded an opportunity because it was in a more competitive division?

In the NFC, too, we can look at the Cardinals in the NFC South. They have an 8-7 record and the division is wrapped up. They were taken to the woodshed this past weekend and thrashed, 47-7, by the New England Patriots, who may not make the postseason but have a better overall record this season. The Cardinals have the 9th best record in the NFC, but they’ll be one of six teams playing in January.

In the BCS, a late season blowout like the one Arizona received would no doubt take them out of any sort of consideration. But not in the NFL. In the NFL, they played well enough to make the postseason because the 2nd best team in their division has six wins. In any other division in the NFC, the Cardinals have, at most, the 3rd best record. In the East and South they’re tied for dead last.

Or consider this final glitch. The Indianapolis Colts could win this weekend and wind up with a 12-4 (.750) record, and they’ll still play their first game on the road. But if the Chargers can beat the erratic Broncos, they’ll finish 8-8 (.500) and play their first game at home. If nothing else, shouldn’t a team with four more wins be rewarded with home field advantage?

Perhaps the BCS isn’t a perfect system, but neither is the NFL’s playoffs. In the NFL, the regular season is important, but its important is dependent on the division. Some teams can afford to lose half their games and still find themselves in the playoffs with the same opportunity as a team that won 75 percent of its games. Others will scrap for 10 or 11 wins and wind up snubbed because they can’t win their division or finish with the second best record among non-division winners.

Where’s the fairness? Where’s the reward for teams who proved they can win down the stretch? It’s nowhere to be found in the NFL, so perhaps, rather than focus on adding more regular season games (terrible idea) the NFL can instead opt to adjust its all too flawed postseason system. It certainly needs a tune up.

Take a look at the top ten scoring defenses in the NFL this season. Don’t worry, I’ll wait.

Back? Excellent. Did you notice anything they shared in common? Let me help: look at the records; every team on that list is at least .500 this season. You have to go all the way to the 14th ranked scoring defense to find a team (Cleveland) which has lost more than half its games. In fact, only four teams with a top twenty scoring defense have won fewer than half their games. Interesting, considering only 12 teams will qualify for the postseason.

Now, for the sake of argument, let’s take the opposite viewpoint and assume a team can win games with a great offense, regardless of its defense’s quality. To save some time, let me break down how this looks. The top four scoring offenses are at least .500 this season, which is interesting because three of those teams have a scoring defense that ranks 20th or worse. The Green Bay Packers and San Diego Chargers, whose defenses rank 21st and 16th, respectively, are the only two teams with a top ten scoring offense and record below .500.

Before you go out and declare defense’s place as a better indicator of success, consider: the Buffalo Bills, whose offense ranks 20th in scoring, are the only other franchise in the top twenty with a sub-.500 record. In other words, just three of the top twenty scoring offenses are putting up points for teams with below-average records.

Wait. So there three top twenty scoring offenses are below .500 and four top twenty scoring defenses are in the same position? Sure, that’s one way to interpret it. Of course, there are other factors. After all, the common maxim preaches “defense wins championships” instead of “defense wins in the regular season.” But let’s assume New York (take your pick), Arizona, Carolina, or Tennessee make the postseason. There are some pretty darn good teams in that mix, all of which have a top ten scoring offense. Among those teams, the Jets and Cardinals don’t have a top ten, or even top nineteen, scoring defense. You could also look at the flip side of the coin. If the Giants, Panthers, Titans, Steelers, or Colts win the Super Bowl, a top ten defense will have won. Among those teams, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis are the two teams without a top ten scoring offense. (They rank 21st and 17th, respectively.)

Okay, let’s retrace what we learned. A bunch of teams with a top ten scoring offense will make the postseason, just like a bunch of teams with a top ten scoring defense will. But unless the Steelers, Colts, Jets, or Cardinals win the Super Bowl, it’s reasonable a team with a very special balance of both top ten offense and top ten defense will win.

Look at history. The ‘85 Bears, ‘00 Ravens, and ‘02 Buccaneers were the only three franchises in the last 25 years (and probably in the history of the Super Bowl) to have won on defense alone. Three out of forty-three? I think it’s safe to ditch the idea “defense wins championships.” Let’s adopt something new: teams cannot win by defense (or offense) alone. Football purists may not love it, but this maxim has at least one thing in its favor: it’s true.

Not too long ago I wrote an article essentially guaranteeing the Denver Broncos a spot in the postseason.

I was wrong.

Nothing is locked up for the Broncos, though they do control their own fate and should remain the odd-on favorites to win the AFC West. But with two weeks left in the regular season, there remains a very real opportunity for San Diego to squeeze past Denver and vault itself into the postseason with loads of momentum.

How can the Chargers make the postseason? Simple. If Phillip Rivers and Co. win next week (a tough road game against Tampa Bay) and Denver drops the ball at home against Buffalo, the two will face each other week 17 to decide the division. The Broncos lost this weekend by a blowout 20-point margin to the Carolina Panthers, while San Diego looked slightly more impressive, squeaking out a win against the Kansas City Chiefs. Assuming week 17 is the clincher, San Diego will enter the game with a three game win streak while Denver limped through two consecutive losses. In that game San Diego will have at least one factor in its favor besides momentum: homefield advantage.

Now, how likely is this scenario? Honestly, it’s tough to decipher the Chargers or Broncos at this point. San Diego has won its last two games against poor teams (Kansas City and Oakland), and prior to those wins it had lost three consecutive games to quality opponents (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Atlanta), albeit by close margins (an average of just over 3 points per contest). Denver, meanwhile, is among the most inconsistent teams in the NFL, losing games it most certainly should win (see week 12’s thrashing at the hands of Oakland), defeating quality opponents (week 13 against the Jets, for example), and simply following the odds in other games, just for good measure (i.e., week 14’s win over Kansas City).

It’s easy to draw parallels between the two. Without stating the obvious (Cutler and Rivers, *cough*), both teams have a lot of talent and firepower on offense, but neither has a good running game on offense or a solid defense. The Broncos have dealt with more than their share of running back injuries this season, whereas the Chargers’ LaDainian Tomlinson has simply disappointed. Defensively, injuries have hurt both clubs. San Diego lost linebacker Shawn Merriman, arguably the best in the league when healthy, for the season, while Denver has been without a healthy Champ Bailey, considered by many to be the league’s best cornerback, for weeks.

Both teams can be considered disappointments this season. It’s a bit backward to consider the AFC West’s division leader has been outscored by 40 points this season, while its second place team, which is two games back, no less, has outscored opponents by 45. The Broncos have scored 42 fewer points on offense and allowed 55 more on defense, in direct comparison with the Chargers. The Chargers have even managed a better division record, losing just one AFC West game, week two at Denver, by one point.

I’m not suggesting the Chargers are a better team than the Broncos. No, if that was true they would be leading the division. God knows they’ve been given plenty of opportunities to make up ground or pass the Broncos, but it simply hasn’t happened. One of these two will make the postseason, though neither franchise stands much hope once there. Which team is anyone’s guess, but really, does it matter?

The Detroit Lions may be tired of being the butt of NFL jokes, their 0-12 record keeping them behind the likes of Kansas City (1-11) and Cincinnati (1-10-1), but if the next four games go down as they predictably should, the 2008 Detroit Lions will have secured a little slice of history as one of the worst teams ever to have stepped on a football field when better judgment told them to forfeit. The Lions aren’t just winless this season; they’re lossful.

I suppose Lions fans can take solace in the fact their favorite team has not been shut out this season, or they can continue holding their collective breaths for the next four weeks, none of which offer much promise. Detroit doesn’t have an easy game left on the schedule; worse yet, those teams the Lions do play will all be vying for postseason slots or higher seeds, meaning every game will count, at least for those teams. Sorry, Detroit, none of your opponents have throwaway games scheduled.

First up is Minnesota. The Vikings are 7-5 and hot off two consecutive victories. Fighting for the right to crown itself champion of the NFC North, Minnesota might not want to look past another division opponent, though it’s not hard to believe even the coaching staff has begun prepping for week 15. (Side note to Detroit: while Minnesota looks beyond this part of the schedule, you might as well begin prepping your scouts to look into who the best player in the draft is this year.)

After Minnesota the Lions are forced to travel to Indianapolis, where the white-hot Colts are making a final push for the postseason. As a matter of fact, if Tennessee blows its next game and Indianapolis wins this weekend, the Colts will still have a shot at the division, making even a game at home against Detroit paramount.

Week 16 doesn’t look much better, though the Lions probably won’t be shut out by New Orleans’ porous defense. It’s not hard to imagine Drew Brees breaking 5,000 passing yards in this game, even if he only has 4,500 going into the game. This could also be the game he breaks 30 touchdown passes, something he’s never before done in a single season. I suppose keeping him from doing either of those tasks (might not want to set the goals as high as keeping him from both milestones) could be considered a minor victory, albeit one that won’t show up when one looks at the standings.

Finally, week 17 presents a brutal matchup at Green Bay. The Packers, currently two games back in the division, could still be in the postseason hunt at this point and a division/conference win might wind up being some sort of tie-breaker. Even if it isn’t Green Bay at home is no easy win. The fans at Lambeau will want to see Detroit clobbered, especially if it means sending a team home with an 0-16 record.

Yes, for the first time in recent memory an NFL team is three-quarters of the way through the regular season and it looks possible, nay, downright probable that it finishes 0-16. No doubt about it, April is right around the corner for the Detroit Lions.

Try figuring out the Denver Broncos this season or placing them somewhere in a power ranking; it’s headache-inducing. Just take a look at Denver’s last four games: against Cleveland week 10 the Broncos barely took down Cleveland Browns (who are since 1-2) in a shootout; the next week the Broncos beat the NFC’s biggest surprise, Atlanta (which is now 4-1 in its last five games); following that the Broncos were upset by the Oakland Raiders, a team the Broncos beat handily, 41-14, week one; and last week, to top it all off, Denver beat the ultra-hot New York Jets - still smoking after a blowout win over the otherwise undefeated Tennessee Titans the week before - in a 34-17 thrashing.

Where do you put this team, relative to others?

Certainly Denver’s record is not sparkling. At 7-5 the Broncos are a lock to win the AFC West because the division is so very weak. Matter of fact, with the same record, Denver wouldn’t be an outright division leader in anything but the AFC West. And it certainly bears mentioning three of Denver’s five losses came at the hands of teams with four or fewer wins this season.

It really doesn’t matter how you look at the Broncos: everything about this team is erratic. The defense has allowed 30 or more points in six games and 20 or fewer in four others. The offense began the season scoring at least 34 points in three straight games before scoring fewer than 20 in the next five. Starting quarterback Jay Cutler has looked like a young Brett Favre often this season, especially in games when he throws for more than 300 yards (it’s happened 6 times this season) or throws touchdown passes (he’s thrown at least one in eleven of twelve starts). But there are times too frequent when he takes on the worst quality of Favre: his tendency to throw interceptions is gaudy and he’s thrown at least one in nine of his twelve starts. As for Denver’s vaunted running game, it doesn’t really exist this season. It’s a safe guess that the Broncos have had as many running backs injured this season as any team in history. Ultimately it’s left the Broncos to re-sign Tatum Bell and settle with Peyton Hillis as the starter.

Despite all the injuries (don’t forget about losses on defense, like Champ and Boss Bailey, either), all the inconsistency (just for good measure I’ll point out that Denver has a better record on the road than at home), and all the falling short of expectations, the Broncos are probably going to make the postseason. It would take some sort of bizarre miracle for San Diego (4-8) to overcome them in the division and, in fact, the Broncos could conceivably make the postseason winning just one more game this season, regardless of what the Chargers do.

That means we’re going to be watching Denver in the postseason. To some faint degree it appears the team is getting hot at the right time, winning three of its last four with one loss coming at the hands of Oakland, an outcome that has left it impossible to really judge how far they’ve come this season. More than anything, the 2008 Denver Broncos appear to be the kind of team that is unbeatable at its best and anything but a playoff team at its worst.

Before I publish, let me just point out one bit of irony: if Denver wins this weekend and San Diego loses, something that seems more probable than possible, the Broncos could be the first team in the NFL to lock up the division, even though the Tennessee Titans are currently 11-1 and nine other teams have a better overall record. How’s that for shuffling up your power rankings?

Never doubt a team coached by Tony Dungy and led by Peyton Manning. That’s a lesson the rest of the NFL is quickly getting reacquainted to. Just over four weeks ago it would have been easy to discard the Colts in the same vein as San Diego. Stumbling to 3-4, on the heels of two consecutive losses, and in a division in which the leader was 7-0, this was hardly a team worth considering for the postseason. But four weeks and as many wins later, it may be worth jumping back on the Colts bandwagon.

Indianapolis isn’t winning in the fashion of a rout. On the contrary, the Colts are hanging with their opponents - among them, New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, and San Diego - until the very end before pulling ahead with little time on the clock. Against San Diego last weekend the Colts fell behind with 1:35 showing on the clock. Eight plays and ninety seconds later and the Colts regained the lead. Manning drove his offense down the field as he has so often this season to set up Adam Vinatieri for the game-winner.

Looking at the Colts now, with three relatively easy games in succession next on the schedule (Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Detroit), and it’s not hard to imagine ten or more wins. Is that enough to make the postseason in the AFC? It very well could be. The AFC West certainly won’t more than the division winner (Denver currently leads with a 6-5 record), leaving Indianapolis to basically contend with two others: New England and Baltimore, both of which have a more difficult remaining schedule.

Then again, one can’t necessarily rule out Indianapolis winning the AFC South. Understand that it’s a long shot, but Tennessee, which was proved vulnerable this weekend in a blowout defeat at the hands of the New York Jets, could potentially lose its final three games (at Houston, vs. Pittsburgh, and at Indianapolis). If that does happen and the Titans fall to 12-4 and the Colts win out (to improve to 12-4), the Colts hold the tie-breaker. Because Tennessee would slip to 8-4 in conference and the Colts would improve to 10-2, Indianapolis holds the NFL’s fourth tiebreaker: the best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Is it likely? No, of course not. Is it possible? Absolutely. The NFL always sees something crazy happen down the stretch. You can count on it happening every season. And what would be crazier than a 10-0 team with a four game division lead dropping four of its last six, including one against the team four games behind, to ultimately lose the division due to the NFL’s fourth tie-breaker?

Of course, it’s far more likely Indianapolis makes it as a Wild Card team. What does that mean? Basically, to make the Super Bowl the Colts would need three road games and a game played on neutral turf. The Colts have actually won more often on the road this season (4-2) than they have at home (3-2). More interesting is Peyton Manning’s progression this season over the course of three months. His passer rating in September was a very un-Manning-ish 73.1. But in October it improved to a more respectable 84.0. And in the month of November he began putting up numbers you’d expect: his rating hit 100.9 and he threw 9 touchdowns and 1 interception in four games.

Obviously the Colts have weaknesses. The running game is laughable, averaging less than 80 yards per game and ranking 32nd in the NFL, whilst the defense continues to struggle stopping the run. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Indianapolis has allowed only two opposing backs to break 100 yards since its week four bye and only one in the last five weeks. Again, this is a team that has dealt with injuries at key positions this season (Manning in preseason, Joseph Addai and Bob Sanders during the season, to point out the most notable) and still has a pulse. I still believe that Tony Dungy is in the same company as Bill Belichick when it comes to dealing with injuries; both coaches have an uncanny ability to accept what they can’t control, get the team to accept it, and push forward without losing too much footing.

Eight weeks into the season, I wouldn’t have faulted someone for writing off the Colts. Now, just four short weeks later, I can hardly blame that person if he or she is ready to jump back on the bandwagon. Note to the rest of the NFL: heads up; the Indianapolis Colts are not going to walk quietly into the night.

In recent seasons it has been relatively easy to pick the league’s MVP, since record-breakers often get the nod, especially when the record is significant (i.e., throwing 50 touchdowns in one season is usually worthy). This season, however, it doesn’t seem quite so clear-cut. I think it’s fair to suggest the league MVP will be a quarterback or running back because that is the trend in the NFL. Offensive skill positions are in for two reasons: one, in the era of fantasy football, few fans care enough about individual players on defense to argue for them a case as the league’s “most valuable player.” You will never see an offensive lineman win the award because that offensive group is, well, a group. As far as wide receivers or tight ends are concerned, it’s difficult to point to one as being the reason for a team’s success since their success depends heavily on the quarterback.

With that “narrowing” concluded, here is my list of candidates (four quarterbacks and two running backs) and my pick, which is probably obvious if you caught the drift of my article’s lame clever title. I encourage you to also take advantage of the comments section to voice your opinion. Who do you think deserves the league’s most prestigious individual award?

Quarterbacks

1. Brett Favre - New York Jets

His individual numbers warrant some attention: 2,461 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. But the most telling stat isn’t on Favre’s NFL.com page. Instead, let me point to the New York Jets’ record without Brett Favre (last season): 4-12. Since acquiring Favre, New York is 8-3 and on top the AFC East. Might I also mention they just beat the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team? The Jets are serious Super Bowl contenders, and I would argue that Brett Favre is the catalyst of the surge.

2. Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers’ numbers might not be gaudy (2,351 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions through ten games), but his play has been more than impressive this season. The Packers remain in the postseason hunt, and it sure isn’t because the running game has led it. Rodgers has showed incredible poise in the pocket and is the single biggest reason Green Bay’s offense is clicking. Now, normally he might not be worth an MVP bid, but consider the pressure he is playing under: he replaced Brett Favre in the offseason, much to the dismay of a good many Packers fans, and has spent the entire season gaining the respect of them and his teammates. I think he’s earned it.

3. Kurt Warner - Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals (7-4) have emerged this season as a contender in the NFC, something that is sure to have made fans believers in Ken Whisenhunt. The team hasn’t been perfect, and Arizona has had trouble running the football this season, which has led to Warner throwing 40-50 passes per game. His response can be described, in a word, as admirable. Warner was impressive in 2007, as well, but he has been in the zone this season. Through eleven games he has thrown for 3,506 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 8 touchdowns and has put the Cardinals’ offense, which ranks 3rd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards per game, on the map.

4. Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints

The Saints (5-5) have struggled this season - mostly because the defense can’t shut down anyone - but the team’s passing game has not. In ten games this season, Drew Brees has passed for 3,251 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 11 touchdowns. The number in that group to watch is his passing yards - he’s averaging 325 yards per game. That puts him on pace for 5,200 yards, enough to easily snag a record. He hasn’t thrown fewer than 30 passes in a game this season, and only twice has he passed for fewer\ than 300 yards.

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings

No running back means as much to his team as Adrian Peterson. While the Vikings have had their ups and downs this season with a pair of ill-suited quarterbacks and a disappointing corps of wide receivers, Adrian Peterson has kept the team afloat through his undying determination. Against the Green Bay Packers I saw a running back take command of an offense in the final minutes to lead a scoring drive. Rarely will we witness a player rush for 40 yards and catch 2 passes for 24 yards to directly account for 64 of an offense’s 69 yards on a scoring drive that puts his team ahead with less than three minutes to play. The dependence on Peterson has been tremendous all season long, and his numbers reflect that: 1,180 yards rushing and 8 rushing touchdowns.

2. Michael Turner - San Diego Chargers

Describing Michael Turner’s numbers in one word is simple: remarkable. Turner has rushed for 1,080 yards and 13 touchdowns through eleven games, taking much of the pressure off rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons are 7-4 right now for a number of reasons, but I don’t think anyone would deny that Turner has played a very significant role.

My Pick: If you haven’t guessed yet, I’m going with Favre. He’s the biggest reason New York has turned it around so dramatically this season, and with him at the helm it’s not hard to envision a Super Bowl run for the Jets.

Maybe I’m right (I like to think so), maybe I’m wrong. Put your pick in the comment, and let’s get some discussion going!

Since the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in 1998-1999, the AFC has largely been responsible for winning the league’s championship games. The Patriots, dubbed the 2000s “dynasty” won three, while the Ravens, Colts, and Steelers have chipped in to win another three. In other words, the AFC has won eight of the past eleven Super Bowls and that has prompted some talking heads to say in recent years that the level of competition and parity has gone down considerably and the AFC is top-heavy.

Is that still true?

This season the AFC’s three preseason favorites all look relatively weak when compared with the NFC’s top bundle. The Patriots are without Tom Brady for the remainder of the season and the team was just destroyed by the Miami Dolphins; the Colts as a whole aren’t looking particularly good with an injured Bob Sanders and Peyton Manning still looking rusty in the pocket; and the San Diego Chargers are 0-2 right now and without Shawn Merriman for the rest of the season.

Compare that with the Dallas Cowboys, who are arguably the most talented team in the NFL; the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants are undefeated at this point (and could push the Chargers to 0-3 tomorrow night); and the Green Bay Packers look very strong, with Aaron Rodgers impressing, nay, wowing, even his greatest critics. Throw into the mix the Arizona Cardinals - a team that has looked solid to this point - the Philadelphia Eagles - with one of the NFL’s best offenses - and the Washington Redskins - one of those black horse teams that sneaks up and bites a favorite - and you have the makings of a conference that, when compared to the AFC, looks more top heavy and dominant this season.

The AFC South, which was predicted to be one of the league’s best divisions, now looks comparitively weak. The Titans lead with a 3-0 record and have looked good this season, but the two favorites, Jacksonville and Indianapolis, have looked anything but. And the Texans, though only 0-2, simply aren’t looking as good as they should.

No, it appears that the AFC’s strongest three teams this season are the Denver Broncos (2-0 at the time of this writing and dominating the New Orleans Saints), Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0 and losing,  7-3, at the time of this writing), and the Titans (3-0, but Kerry Collins is the team’s starting quarterback). The Chargers might too be among the best, a team that has so far lost two games on last second, heart breaking drives, but another early season loss and they might wind up a Wild Card team that will play its postseason on the road. Even the lowly Raiders are ahead of them in the division.

So has the distribution of top-level talent and coaching shifted to the NFC again, after a decade-long run for the AFC? It’s certainly beginning to look that way; in fact, it almost appears that the worst team in the NFC East would be able to defeat 80 percent of the AFC.

Which Conference Won, When? (Try saying that five times fast.)

1970-1980 - AFC (The Pittsburgh Steelers were a dynasty, while the Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins were just unlucky to be in the same conference. Between 1970-1979, the AFC snagged eight Super Bowls and only one NFC team - the Dallas Cowboys - was able to win a Super Bowl.)

1981-1996 - NFC (The NFC won 15 of the possible 16 Super Bowls in this span and sparked two separate dynasties: the 49ers of the 1980s and the Dallas Cowboys of the 1990s. The Raiders, who won in 1982, were the only franchise to win one during the AFC’s drought.)

1997-2006 - AFC (In a ten year span the AFC won 8 Super Bowls, with the Patriots leading the way with three and the Broncos being the only other team with at least two. In fact, seven different teams won a Super Bowl in that span, making those ten years the most diverse in NFL history, and I’m certain the next ten will continue that trend.)

If 2007 could be considered one of those seasons when quarterbacks experience huge amounts of success that seem to extrapolate from the general trend in the NFL, 2008 is beginning to look like a season in which running backs break from the norm.

Last season’s leading rusher, LaDainian Tomlinson, had 1,474 rushing yards; only six running backs carried the ball at least 300 times; and only six rushed for 10 or more touchdows.

Though we’re in the early part of this season, it’s becoming increasingly obvious that 2008’s rushers are going to break all three of those marks. Consider Michael Turner, who today rushed for three touchdowns. He already has five this season, with 59 carries and 366 rushing yards. That puts him on pace for 315 carries, 1,952 yards, and 27 rushing touchdowns. Even if his yard per carry average drops from its current stratospheric level (which it should) and scores just 10 touchdowns the rest of the season (certainly not unreasonable), he should still wind up breaking or tying each of Tomlinson’s 2007 marks.

And that’s just Michael Turner.

All around the NFL running backs are again becoming the focal points of offenses. Teams with inexperience or injuries at quarterback are turning to the running game to make things happen. And running backs, especially the youngest generation, are responding.

Consider Chicago’s rookie Matt Forte: he has over 300 rushing yards this season is on pace for close to 400 carries this season. He probably won’t hit that mark, but 340 isn’t out of the question. The Bears have given him 23, 23, and 27 carries in the first three weeks of this season, already.

Oakland’s backfield, meanwhile, is tearing through opponents. Darren McFadden already has 252 yards on 44 carries, while his teammates have combined for another 58 carries and 230 yards. Prior to this week’s slate of games, Oakland ranked second in the NFL in rushing offense.

Predictably, the Minnesota Vikings have also seen considerable success running the football. The team’s featured back - and last season’s rookie of the year - Adrian Peterson has 340 rushing yards this season, an average of 113 yards per game, and said in the offseason his goal is 2,000. To hit that mark, he’ll have to increase his average to at least 125 yards per game, or else continue with this pace and “settle” for just over 1,800.

Lest I forget about Willie Parker. As of this writing he has 243 rushing yards and, if he can gain another 132 today, he’ll be the league’s leading rusher - and on pace for 2,000 yards.

17 running backs last season rushed for at least 1,000 yards, and only 9 broke the 1,200 yard mark. To rush for 1,000 yards in a season, a back must average 62.5 yards per game; for 1,200, 75 yards per game. 14 running backs this season are averaging more than 75 yards per game.

But before I get too carried away, let me point out a few things. First, all of these numbers will probably even out by the end of the season. At the same time, I should also note that several backs who are a lock for 1,000 yards (barring injuries), such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Selvin Young, Ryan Grant, Joseph Addai, and Larry Johnson are all on pace for sub-1000 yard seasons.

The NFL’s transition in recent years, from a league in which leading backs were prized to a league in which a committee of “specialists” is the new norm, means that we’ll see fewer and fewer “elite” runners and 1,000 yard gainers. At the same time, 2008 is shaping up to be the season in which some of the league’s best and those who are guaranteed touches will raise the bar and our future expectations. The leauge’s crop of young backs, led by Adrian Peterson, Joseph Addai, and others who I’ve mentioned above is mirroring its crop of young quarterbacks in terms of talent. We’re about to witness some quality football over the next several years.

And it all starts this season, a year in which we may have trouble selecting between a pair of running backs (Forte or McFadden) for rookie of the year.