How many people paid attention to week 17 even though their fantasy season was over? Maybe Charger, Bronco, Dolphin, Cowboy, Viking, Eagle and Viking fans, as these teams were fighting to get into the playoffs. If you are a die-hard fantasy football fan it is hard to pay attention when you can’t cheer for your players anymore. Tomlinson had 3 touchdowns but it didn’t mean much unless you love the Chargers, or hate the Broncos. Even though week 17 was full of action it is hard not to be able to count up the scores for your fantasy team. Here are the notes from week 17:

All Denver and Dallas had to do was win their game in week 17 to make the playoffs. They both lost. The best teams made the playoffs though, the Chargers and Eagles are just playing a lot better.

2008 Denver Broncos defense = 2007 Denver Nuggets defense.

Will Terrell Owens be on the move next season. If so, which NFC East team is next: Washington or New York.

No more Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, people will be asking if Drew Brees should be taken in the first round of fantasy football drafts next year.

Thank you LT for producing 3 touchdowns in week 17. That did nearly zilch for fantasy owners. On the other hand, he still did not top 100 yards rushing in the game.

Good ole Cedric Benson ended the season strong with 747 rushing yards. That is more than Joseph Addai. produced (544).

The tie against the Bengals in week 11 actually ended up putting the Eagles in the playoffs instead of hurting them. Not to mention the Raiders beating Tampa Bay and a loss by Chicago but still.

The Lions did it, they went 0-16, but hey they have hope…….The Dolphins improved from 1-15 last year to a playoff birth this year. Could this turnaround happen to the Lions as well……..not likely.

Tampa Bay 0-4 in December….

Big Ben made a big mistake playing in week 17. He suffered a concussion but maybe it was Mike Tomlin’s fault for having him out there.

Drew Brees came up just shy of Dan Marino’s passing record. Although maybe Brees can do something Marino couldn’t , and that is win a Superbowl.

The Cadillac went down again. Just when we were witnessing a great comeback.

 How long do we wait until Brett Favre announces his retirement. Then how long do we have until he changes his mind…again.

One of the most underrated factors in fantasy football near the end of the season is the weather. Sure, we take it into consideration, but not to the extent we probably should. Rather than take the time to look at the forecast for the upcoming slate of games, I would guess most fantasy footballers instead make generalizations.

For example, I would venture to guess at some point you’ve thought, hmmm … Chicago in December is probably a tough place to throw the football and typically it’s true. The Windy City is hardly a haven for quarterbacks, so most opponents in town will focus their efforts on establishing a strong running game. But what happens when some alignment of the universe creates a favorable situation for quarterbacks in Chicago. Perhaps it’s sunny and calm with a high of 50, and you didn’t know that. Could pose a problem, right?

This is why I love Weather.com. Sure, it’s great for catching the daily forecast for my hometown, so I know to bundle up on some odd day in August (darn the Midwest’s erratic weather patterns!). But why not take advantage of the weather forecasts for individual games? Weather.com offers a sweet feature – and perhaps other sites out there do the same – where you can catch the game-time forecast for every game of the season, all in one place.

Why is it useful? Because it helps to know when a blizzard is going to hit Green Bay, Wisconsin or when it’s going to pour rain in Tampa, Florida. Those games are going to create difficult passing situations and potentially low-scoring situations.

Of course, it’s also useful to know which teams play in domes because for obvious reasons they will not be affected.

Still, what weather patterns should be looked at the closest?

• High winds, rain, Snow, or storms of any sort make passing the football difficult and scoring less frequent. It also makes kicking field goals more difficult and, for those of you in leagues which place greater value on longer field goals, coaches are more hesitant to attempt anything 50 or more yards.
• Cold weather - think below freezing - affects older quarterbacks (looking at you, Brett Favre).
• Warm, sunny conditions create a favorable environment for running or passing and scoring is likely to be relatively more frequent.

Also, don’t forget it’s not easy to run in the snow; it’s just easier than passing the ball. In other words, you shouldn’t just start a running back solely because his team is playing in the snow. Starting a team defense, however, is another story altogether. Remember, low scoring and wet conditions, which in turn creates a greater likelihood of turnovers, equals high fantasy scoring for a defense.

The weather isn’t important enough that you should consider starting a sleeper over a fantasy stud, but it’s very useful when picking between similar players on your roster. It’s overlooked by a lot of fantasy football owners; be sure you’re not one of them.

These players had high hopes coming into the season and you were likely to draft at least on of them. Here is a recap of the most disappointing players in fantasy.

Derek Anderson – Anderson was the whole reason why Brady Quinn was sitting on the bench last year and the beginning of this year. Anderson broke out last year with 3,787 yards and and 32 total touchdowns. This year has all he has done is create headaches. He has started 9 games before being pulled in favor of Quinn, and only has 9 touchdowns to compliment his 8 interceptions.

Ladainian Tomlinson – Tomlinson can take the crown for being the biggest fantasy bust. Just this past week he broke 1,000 yards rushing, after 15 games. He has struggled against bad defenses, such as the Chiefs and Broncos, gaining no more that 78 yards. He is posting a career low 3.6 yards per carry. This would be ok if we knew Tomlinson was a mediocre back but he isn’t. I wonder how many people are going to pass on him in next year’s draft.

Willis McGahee – McGahee was a decent option last year when he rushed for over 1,200 yards. This year he was supposed to be the starter but has been taken over by Le’Ron McCalin and Ray Rice. In two games that he was healthy, he didn’t even see the field. This might be a good thing since he is averaging a career low 3.4 yards per carry. Next….

Reggie Bush – As a running back Reggie Bush does not run the ball effectively. Seeing that his is a RB, that should be his main strength. He only has 404 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in the 10 games he has played. He is a very good pass catcher but so is Westbrook and at least he gets it done on the ground. If you aren’t in a PPR league, Bush hurts you even more. Once Bush learns that the field is not a dance floor, then he could be effective. Not to mention his continuing injuries could shut down his disco for good.

Braylon Edwards – One thing is certain, Braylon comes to play on Monday Nights. He has had 100 yard games on the three MNF appearances. How about the other Sunday games…..well, not so much. He has only scored 3 touchdowns all season, and this is after he stated that he would score at least 16. It must be cold in Cleveland because Braylon Edward’s hands have been like an ice cube. He has dropped so many passes that you would have got him confused with T.O.

Torry Holt – Holt is usually a viable number 1 option for your team. This year he might have been the number 1 bust on your bench. He had 93 receptions last year and this year he only has totaled 54. There are only two games left! He has come on as of late totaling at least 60 yards in the past two games…..which isn’t saying much. He also had two games where he did not even even muster 10 yards. On a high note, at least he didn’t fumble all season.

Chad Johnson – Chad Ocho Stinko has hurt your fantasy team more than Carson Palmer’s injury. Considering he had almost 1,500 receiving yards last year, you expected big things from the end zone entertainer. It is week 16 and he has only 540 yards, no 100 yard games, and his longest reception has went for a measly 26 yards. Ouch.

Seattle Seahawks Defense – The Seahawks came into this year as a sleeper type defense with talent all over the field. With Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson, Marcus Trufant, Patrick Kerney, and Deon Grant they looked prime to do some damage. Well, all they did was hurt themselves with their 31^st ranked pass defense and their 28^th ranking in total yards.

You probably won your fantasy league championship game with this team:

 QB -  Tyler Thigpen – 320 Yds, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 57 Rush Yds, 1 TD

RB - LaMont Jordan – 78 Rush Yds, 2 TDs

RB - Kevin Smith – 111 Rush Yds, 1 TD

WR - Justin Gage – 5 Rec, 104 Yds, 1 TD

WR - Antonio Bryant – 6 Rec, 127 Yds, 1 TD, 1 FL

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe – 7 Rec, 136 Yds, 2 TDs 

You probably lost your league championship with this team: 

QB - Kurt Warner – 30 Yds, 0 TDs, 0 INTs

RB - . Ronnie Brown – 32 Rush Yds, 5 Rec, 21 Yds, 0 TDs

RB - Willie Parker – 29 Rush Yds, 1 Rec, 2 Yds, 0 TDs

WR - Andre Johnson – 2 Rec, 19 Yds, 0 TDs

WR - Roddy White – 3 Rec, 24 Yds, 0 TDs

TE - Chris Cooley – 4 Rec, 28 Yds, 0 TDs 

Although it didn’t help me, but I am willing to bet that the late Larry Fitzgerald touchdown really put a damper on some opponents.  

It is amazing that the last game of the season pits the Broncos and the Chargers for the title of the AFC West. Many of us, threw the Chargers out many weeks ago and here they are.  

Ed Hochuli got a huge bailout.  

The Colts were going to meet the Broncos in the playoffs, which is a great Christmas gift, but now could face the Chargers who could cause problems.

History will be made next week. The winless Lions should be so proud.

Look out LenDale White. The stomping of the Terrible Towel will come back to haunt you.

Cedric Benson had 171 yards rushing on Sunday. If someone can honestly say “Cedric Benson won me my fantasy football championship”, I would like to meet you, because you are my hero.

Who is worse: the state of Missouri (Rams, Chiefs) or the state of Ohio (Browns, Bengals)

I don’t know if I ever would want to own a Patriot or Bronco running back ever again. It is like Russian Roulette.

Brees needs 402 yards to break Dan Marino’s record. If I were to predict anything, the running backs will only have worth in the passing game next week against Carolina.

Top 3 backs entering the 2008 fantasy season – Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook.

Top 3 backs entering the 2009 season – Peterson, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams.

Horrible drop by DeSean Jackson at the end of the game, that would’ve tied it up. I guess you wanted to take the heat off of Braylon Edwards, but we all know he drops passes.

Maurice Jones-Drew is going to be one of the best backs in football next year, without Fred Taylor around.

It’s Christmas season and I must admit, the cheeriness of the season is mighty infectious. I was just over at my boy Corey Koehler’s website, Music Goat, listening to some quality off-beat Christmas music and felt inspired to write a post dedicated to the top 16 things I’m thankful for this holiday season. Why 16? Partly because it’s a pretty arbitrary number, and I do love arbitrary numbers, and partly because it’s December 16th.

Without further ado, here are the top 16 things I’m thankful for this holiday season. Feel free to add your own in the comments!

16. Sports Data Hub - It’s made analyzing statistics super easy, thus freeing up more time in my day to visit YouTube, Facebook, and check my Gmail even more often than is necessary. I’m already looking forward to the offseason so I can take full advantage of it for my preseason analysis!

15. NFL Network - Do other pro sports have their own channel? Probably. I guess I really don’t know because, if they do, they just don’t compare with NFL Network. With games during the season and 24/7 football reporting year round, this is the channel for any football fan to watch.

14. Seinfeld - It’s that time of year for stations to begin airing the Festivus episode, one of my all-time favorites. This show is truly standing the test of time and because so many stations carry it, Jerry Seinfeld remains (when I last checked, a couple months ago) the second highest paid actor in the television business, thanks to royalties.

13. Kenny Mayne - Maybe it takes a certain sense of humor to really appreciate SportsCenter’s funniest anchor, but check out some of his clips on ESPN.com and tell me he isn’t the funniest guy in sports. Go ahead, try to convince me.

12. Sports Blogs - I blog. I read blogs. You may do both, too. Either way, blogging has opened the doors for thousands of fans to get their opinions published. It’s great for sports and it’s awesome for anyone with a fantasy football team.

11. Snow - Football in the snow is great. It might be frigid cold in the stands when it’s blizzardous and it might make tailgating hazardous, but there’s something special about a football game played in the snow. The Ice Bowl? Greatest. Game. Ever.

10. Christmas Songs - Nothing gets me in the mood for Christmas like some quality holiday tunes. It puts me in the spirit, as I chug one more glass of eggnog the only time of year it’s acceptable to do so.

9. Madden NFL Football Games - It’s always fun to play a competitive game of Madden football, and it’s great for re-inforcing some player names in my head. Online play is great, but there’s something inexplicably satisfying about doing a victory dance in front of your last opponent.

8. ESPN - The worldwide leader, baby. SportsCenter, Mike and Mike, Kenny Mayne (see number 13), ESPN.com, ESPN 8: The Ocho - plain and simple, ESPN rules. The best personalities in sports tend to gravitate toward the best network, and where would we all be if Mel Kiper didn’t offer his wisdom year in and out on ESPN’s NFL Draft show?

7. YouTube - Whether you need to kill 15 minutes or 3 hours, YouTube is the place to do it. Go watch a baby laugh, see Frank Caliendo do Jim Rome, or watch an “outtake” (see spoof) of The Dark Night. It’s just so darn entertaining!

6. Yahoo.com - In my opinion, Yahoo Fantasy Sports is still the best place to host a fantasy sports league. It’s free, simple, everyone has a Yahoo account, and it’s free.

5. Monster energy drinks - I’m gonna be honest with you: I wouldn’t even be able to function without several solid daily doses of caffeine, and Monster is my favorite way to get it, though Starbucks Doubleshots come in at a very close second.

4. The National Football League - The NFL is hot right now, and for good reason. It’s the best sport to watch on television with a group of friends, especially if they’re in your fantasy football league, and it’s immensely rewarding to go see a live game or tailgate in the parking lot when one is going on. It’s just so … indescribably perfect.

3. Fantasy Football - I just can’t get enough of fantasy football. I love to play it, I love to talk about it, I love to write about it. I’m so glad my brothers got me started several (like years ago. I owe them one for that!

2. Christmas - How could I go an entire list without mentioning my favorite holiday? It’s a day of giving (and receiving!), family, love, and all those other gushy things I typically don’t get the opportunity to write about. It’s the one season each year everyone gets a warm and fuzzy feeling inside and can get away with drinking eggnog (it bore repeating). Plus, we all get the chance to string 1000s of Christmas lights everywhere while everyone with a “green” agenda can just sit and stare. I love Christmas!

1. Family and Friends - This is the season of friends and family, of love and giving. No matter where we live or what our differences, we can always find a way to get together and have a happy holidays with those in our lives we care most about.

Thank you for reading and Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and yours!!!

This week in fantasy football twist, we will look at a truly different way to play fantasy football. It may be fun and it may not be, but it definitely is a twist.

Normal leagues score points based on touchdowns, yards, receptions, carries, field goals….etc. Well what if we flipped the script and the league scored points based on interceptions, fumbles, least amount of yards and penalizes for touchdowns, 100 yard production and so on.

Do I sound crazy yet?

This may not be too out of the box since last year I had a league that rewarded 1 point for each return yard. This automatically vaulted Joshua Cribbs and Devin Hester to the top, while rendering Randy Moss useless. Moss had an amazing season but it was Darren Sproles who was scoring 200 points per game.

So the goal is to draft the worst players that do record stats and actually plays. That means they must be a starter and they must be horrible. Every week instead of hoping that your payer won’t get hurt, you hope that he doesn’t get benched. Every week the waivers will be listing the worst players that still happen to start for their team.

Adrian Peterson is not a number 1 draft pick anymore, in fact he may not be drafted at all. Nope, you might want to draft Brett Favre who has 15 interceptions, or Marc Bulger who has a 68 quarterback rating and has lost 4 fumbles. Make sure you avoid Peyton Manning or Drew Brees because they will cost you with their high touchdown total.

With running backs, in the beginning of the season Edgerrin James and Chris Perry would have been a great duo, although they have lost their starting duties, you would need to pick up DeShaun Foster and Cedric Benson.

The Bengals and Lions DST would actually be a number 1 defense, with some many points and yards racked up against them. Could you imagine drafting the St. Louis Rams in the 4^th round.   

Imagine the fantasy football articles; like “Start em or Sit em”. It would go something like this:

Daunte Culpepper is a great start this week because he is horrible and will go up against the Giants defense who leads the league in sacks. He should get you a fair amount of points with interceptions and a low passing total.

However, you should sit Drew Brees. He has an unfavorable matchup against the Chiefs and his huge yardage totals will hurt your team……

 This might be absurd or it may be intriguing but there is nothing like a Raider’s fan being proud to say that JaMarcus Russel is his starting fantasy quarterback.

If you’ve been in the same league for a few years and are looking for a way to keep things interesting, take a look at the following six tricks and try incorporating one or two next season. Each is guaranteed to add a new dimension or level of competition to your league, and that’s never a bad thing.

1. Turn it into a keeper league.

Keeper leagues are great for leagues with members who will always be available to draft, year in and out. There are a lot of keeper variations, so it’s best to take a vote to decide which kind will fit your league best. If you aren’t certain how much longer the league will last, stick with one year keepers. If you think your league will always be around, try integrating one “all-time” keeper, so someone can decide after this season to never let go of Adrian Peterson (unless he eventually releases him.)

2. Try an auction draft. 

Snake-style drafts are fine, but if your league is growing a bit stale try spice it up by giving everyone a $100 (monopoly money or the real deal) pre-draft salary cap. This is a great way to give your entire league the opportunity to sign Adrian Peterson or Peyton Manning, assuming, of course, they are willing to spend 30-40 percent of their salary cap. It integrates a completely different strategy and everyone will approach the draft with a different plan.

3. Have a separate rookie draft.

No one is really certain when to draft rookies, so I had a keeper league one year that drafted rookies after the completion of the standard, rookie-free draft. It lasted three rounds and gave everyone the opportunity to pick up some of the young talent, without sacrificing a high draft pick on an uncertain player. We added one caveat: no owner could start a rookie unless he released one of his other draft picks (in other words, there were always 14 players on the roster).

4. Make it worth your while.

If your league isn’t already doing this, make it interesting by putting some money on the line. For a 12 team league, for example, have every member throw in $20. At the end of the season, the champion can take home $100 while second place doubles his investment with $40. The exact amounts and distribution is up to you, but I guarantee more members will take the league seriously if more than pride is at stake.

5. Start some friendly prop bets.

I know of one league in which each member threw some money in a pot, and the first team with a player arrest was awarded the shebang. Someone won every single year. Fun side bets like this keep the season interesting and give every owner, even the one whose season was over by week five, the opportunity to take home some cash.

6. Add a New Scoring Rule (PPR)

Do not do this if you’re in a keeper league (unless you get a unanimous vote in favor of it) and be sure to keep it simple. If you can’t figure out your team’s approximate score by simply looking at the box score after the game, your league is too difficult. An excellent scoring addition, however, is points per reception. It makes the draft a lot more interesting (is Adrian Peterson, who rarely contributes in the passing game still more valuable than Brian Westbrook?), and evens the overall scoring between positions. Wide receivers and tight ends, for example, suddenly leap in value and someone like Wes Welker will be drafted much higher.

I wrote a post earlier today on getting started in fantasy football analysis, but if you want a quick tip that won’t take more than 3 minutes, try this one.

Consistency is the most underrated factor in fantasy football, but it can be tough to gauge how consistent a fantasy player really is until you incorporate something called “benchmarks.” Basically, you want to get a feel for how often a player exceeds the average for his position. You want, on your roster, players who are above average a lot during the course of the regular season. Makes sense, right?

To simplify the process, set up some benchmaks for each position. Here are the numbers I use:

Quarterbacks: 175 passing yards and 2 touchdowns (15 points in standard league scoring, with 1 point per 25 passing yards and 4 points per passing touchdown)

Running Backs: 100 yards or 40 yards and a touchdown (10 points in standard league scoring)

Wide Receivers: 90 yards or 30 yards and a touchdown (9 points in standard league scoring)

Tight Ends: 60 yards or a touchdown (6 points in standard league scoring)

Kickers: 8 points

Defenses: 10 points

Now, you may want to vary the numbers based on your specific league and its scoring rules, but that’s how I do it for most of my leagues. Once you have your benchmarks in place, head over to your statistics site of choice (I love Sports Data Hub because the trends tool makes it super-easy to imagine a line stretching across the graph and get a quick idea of which weeks the player came through).

Find the players who exceeded those bench marks often. Those who doubled the bench marks or exceeded them by a great deal on a weekly basis should be your upper-tier players. Others who simply met the bench marks on a regular basis will be solid players during the season.

This is also great during the season when debating whether a player should be started or kept on the bench. Take a look at how the opposing defense - how often does it allow opponents to meet those benchmarks?

It won’t take more than three minutes per player or defense to get these numbers, and you’ll have a better, more consistent team because of it. Remember, if your entire roster (in a standard league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF) meets its bench marks during a given week, you’ll score 84 points. Chances are, you’ll have a couple elite playes who blow up their bench marks and get you an extra 10-15 points, making 100 points per week very possible.

In any event, it’s a great way to separate two players who had similar overall seasons, but were very different on a week-to-week basis.

Good luck!

Why is there so much criticism of the 2-back system?Okay, I understand: it’s hard to decide which running back you want from a committee system, and you might get jobbed because a touchdown vulture will steal touchdowns. Still, it adds to the strategy of fantasy football. But if you’re really, really frustrated, try starting a league in which you draft units (i.e., Tennessee Titans RBs).

Why do we play fantasy football with kickers?

Kickers are useless and a crap shoot. Unlike every other fantasy football position, there is absolutely no way to gauge how well a kicker will do any week of the season. You have no way of knowing how often a coach will settle for a field goal, and the NFL’s best kicker (at least, the most accurate) may only get one field goal attempt in a given week. Plus, by the end of the season the highest scoring kicker and 16th highest scorer will probably be separated by 20-30 points. That’s less than two points per game, yet kickers can influence a game. Every year a fantasy football owner will get screwed by a blocked field goal or, worse, a blocked extra point and lose by one point. Let’s just ditch the kickers.

Why don’t more people read NFL box scores?

Here’s my tip of the day: Monday morning, pick up USA Today or any other newspaper and flip through it to find the NFL box scores from the weekend. Now, calculate your team’s fantasy score and your opponents. It might seem silly, since the internet does this instantly, but it’s important. If you do this, you’ll get a better handle on your league rules and how your players are doing week in and out. Plus, you’ll subconsciously get a better feel for your roster and how the rest of the NFL’s stars are performing.

Why are the NFL Network guys ripping on Tony Romo so much?

I watched NFL Network tonight to see Jamie Dukes and Rod Woodson absolutely rip into Tony Romo, telling him to quit making excuses because “the great one’s don’t make excuses; they just play.” Nonsense. I recall Peyton Manning informing us after a postseason loss that his Colts had some “protection problems.” And lest we all forget, Tony Romo started playing games two years ago. Two years ago. Yet we expect him to not make mistakes? Forget that - he’s still growing as an NFL quarterback. He’s a darn good quarterback; let’s not place him on a pedestal so we can throw insults at him, yet.

Why do we place such high expectations on rookies?

Consider: in any given draft class, maybe 1/3 of first round draft picks will have decent NFL career and only a handful will be great. Let’s lower our expectations and realize the NFL is a much different game. We get spoiled too often by great rookies like Adrian Peterson last season or Chris Johnson this year without thinking, wait a minute, weren’t 250 or so others drafted this year? What are they doing?

Why do we only give quarterbacks three years to prove themselves?

I love the NFL and my favorite team and I want to see results as much as the next guy, but aren’t we pushing players a little hard with this plan? Quarterbacks drafted in the top ten usually inherit a bad supporting cast, and it takes time to get good roster turnover. But when you throw a rookie into the lineup in a baptism by fire sort of ritual, he will get overwhelmed. Some will step up and immediately make some sort of impact. But a lot of others just aren’t ready, and their careers are destroyed before they really began. Why do we do it? Because owners want to get as many years as possible out of their $30 million investments. I say, cap rookie salaries so head coaches aren’t pressured to start them right away.

Why don’t we give coaches that much time?

Coaches are often fired after one or two bad seasons. I understand the NFL is a business and coaches need to show some sign of improvement, but aren’t we pushing it here? It takes time to implement a game plan. And chances are, if a team is hiring a new coach, that team doesn’t have a lot of great players. If it had great players, the team would probably be pretty good, even with an average coach. So you throw a college coach in the NFL with a mediocre (or worse) roster and say, okay, you have two seasons to get us to the postseason. Go.

Why does the NFL want to extend the regular season?

Okay, I know the reason here: it’s money. But I have to admit, though I love the NFL and can’t get enough, I hate this idea. Here’s the issue league executives seem to be missing: the NFL season is very long. There might only be 16 regular season games but in a physical sport like football, I think the season should be measured in months. Try playing tackle football every day for four consecutve months without a break. It just seems like the league is begging for more injuries with this plan.

Okay, so you’ve been playing fantasy football for a few years and you’re really getting into it. You consistently make the fantasy postseason and think you have a pretty good handle on the game, but you haven’t won your league championship and you’d like to step it up. Original research is a pretty good place to start.

Of course, getting started in making your own projections and analysis can be a bit daunting. It also can seem pointless, since dozens of fantasy football magazines and blogs have already crunched the numbers and spent the year looking at players and teams with a magnifying glass. And they get paid to do this. You, on the other hand, will be spending your limited free hours looking at the same numbers, which makes you wonder, is it even worth it?

In a word, yes. There is no substitute for original research and analysis. When you read or listen to what an “expert” says, you’re only getting one side of a story, the side they believe is correct. Now, they might be, but experts certainly aren’t perfect and they will get things wrong not infrequently. And remember, their analysis is often confined to a paragraph, most of which is spent reciting numbers from the last three seasons. They spent more time looking at things than they have room to print, so they write arguments to support their opinions and may leave out part of the story.

So how do you get started in fantasy football analysis? In all actuality, it’s not too complicated. It basically boils down to spending a little time each day looking at numbers and drawing some conclusions. Fantasy football is not rocket science - it’s just a matter of approaching things correctly. Here’s how to accomplish that:

When you start out, just play around. You don’t even need a real purpose yet. All you really need to do at this point is get acclimated with some different web sites and pick the ones you find most convenient. (I use NFL.com, Pro Football Reference, and Sports Data Hub, myself.) If you love looking at numbers, then head over to Pro Football Reference. If you’re more of a visual thinking, take a quick spin on Sports Data Hub’s free tool and look at the graphs. And when I say play around, that’s all I mean. Sort columns, look at random players, and see what you missed from the season before. Chances are you didn’t realize certain players performed as well as they did. Some surprises will jump off the page. Scribble those names down.

When you have a handful of players you found surprising, jot down some reasons why they did so well. It’s one thing to find players who surprised, but to understand whether they can consistently do well, you’ll need to find an explanation. A few reasons a player might suddenly see a spike up or down in his numbers: a new team, injuries, a “soft” schedule, an improved offensive line (check out the number of times a quarterback was sacked, for example), free agency, the draft, new coach, or a new assistant coach.

After you find the reason a player did well, ask yourself, “Will he do just as well or just as bad this season?” Ask yourself the following questions: Is the reason he did well still around, or did that new offensive lineman retire? Is the injured quarterback back in the lineup this season, so the wide receiver can expect his numbers to spike? Did something else change this season? Was that defensive-minded head coach fired and replaced by an offensive minded head coach, or vice versa? What’s the new coach’s mindset - does he believe in hard-hitting, games are won in the trenches football? Or does he spread defenses with a finesse passing game? Is the new quarterback a pocket passer, or is he a scrambler? Did the offense sign a new running back to split carries with last season’s starter? These are just some examples and there are plenty of other analytical questions you can probably come up with on your own.

Okay, so now you have a handful of players who did well last season and an explanation. Whether the reasoning is correct or not is a bit arbitrary at this point. Even if you don’t get it right, you will eventually. The point of this exercise is simply to test your football knowledge and get you think outside the box.

How much time should you spend with this exercise? Try doing one or two players each day for a couple weeks. Or you could try spending one day looking at a specific team and noting players on that team who exceeded expectations. Choose the most effective way that suits you best. It shouldn’t take more than 20-30 minutes per day, and you’ll feel your knowledge expanding as you get a great personal feel for individual players and teams, which will be great when you’re drafting in the middle or late rounds on draft day.

After you’ve done all this, buy a fantasy magazine and check how your thoughts and those of the experts compare. Why does he think the player will again put up good numbers? Did he catch something you missed? If he supports one argument and you support another, don’t automatically change your opinion to conform. Realize he might not be right. It’s hard to describe the satisfaction you’ll get from being right when someone else is wrong. And if a few weeks into the season you realize you were wrong, oh well. Remember, this is a learning experience, so figure out the reason the player didn’t live up to your expectations or vastly exceeded them.

Fantasy football research is a lot of fun, and it’s very rewarding. It takes time, but it’s a lot easier than you really think. And who knows? Do it enough and maybe you’ll be the next Talented Mr. Roto!

Good luck!