This is the final excerpt of the four-part series on scheme changes affecting fantasy performance.  This blog focuses on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers.  Please remember to also view Part 1 ,Part 2, and Part 3.

Tampa Bay [HC: Morris (Buccaneers), OC: Jagodzinski (Boston College)]

After two years in college, new OC Jeff Jagodzinski returns to the NFL and brings with him two separate schemes-one for the running game and one for the passing game.  While at BC, he learned the West Coast offense from former coach Tom O’Brien and when he was O-Line for the Falcons from 2004-2005, he learned the zone-blocking scheme from guru Alex Gibbs.  The Bucs QB best suited to run the WCO is Luke McCown as Byron Leftwich’s windup is too slow for the quick passing game and rookie Josh Freeman will need a lot of time to absorb the playbook.  However, Leftwich has started the first two preseason games and it looks as if he’s seized control of the starting position.  Regardless, his handle on the starting job may not be permanent and that makes him at best a bye-week replacement.  Freeman should get a shot later in the season and could possibly warrant a roster spot on a team in a keeper league.

New addition Derrick Ward should work well with this offensive scheme as he can quickly find the open hole and accelerate through it.  But don’t expect him to put up the 5.6 ypc average he had with the Giants in 2008.  Reasons why are explained in this article, but in short, Ward runs better on turf, in cold weather, and while coming off the bench-none of which he will experience in Tampa.  Another 1000-yard season is likely albeit with far more carries.  Ward will also be a factor in the passing game which will increase his value.  But don’t make the mistake of reaching for him in the second or third round as Earnest Graham will see many carries and will likely be the goal line back, thus stealing some touchdowns away.

The in-flux QB position will have an effect on the Tampa receivers.  Antonio Bryant came back to the NFL last season with a bang but his recent knee surgery will keep him inactive until early September.  At the end of the 2008 season, I saw him as a low-end WR2 but with this injury and the shaky QB play, his value now becomes a serviceable WR3.  As mediocre as Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese were last year, I don’t see whoever the Bucs QB is this year replicating the 3700 yards those two put up last year.  Unless your scoring system gets you points for de-cleatings by a receiver, stay far away from Michael Clayton.  Kellen Winslow is the ultimate wildcard.  The risk/reward is obvious so I’ll let you make your own judgments on if you think he can stay healthy.  But what I can tell you is that if Winslow does stay healthy, he is in the perfect system to maximize his talents.  With a dearth of competent receivers and with a passing game that highly values intermediate routes, Winslow could have one of the greatest TE seasons ever.  But that’s only possible if he can stay healthy.  Personally, I would take a chance on him after drafting the rest of my starters as he should be available in the 6th round.  But each fantasy owner is different so it’s up to you to decide if you want to take that chance.

San Francisco [HC: Singletary (49ers), OC: Raye (Jets)]

Former NY Jets running backs coach Jimmy Raye II becomes the 49ers’ seventh offensive coordinator in seven years-never a good sign for any team.  It’s also not a good sign when the #1 overall pick who’s only 25 years old can’t beat out an undrafted free agent at QB but that’s the case with Shaun Hill being the projected starter over Alex Smith.  Hill played surprisingly well last year when he became the starter once Mike Singletary became head coach.  When projected over 16 games, his numbers would have looked like this: 3637 yds., 23 TD, and 14 INT which would have been good enough for the top 12 among quarterbacks.  But don’t count on that production this season as Jimmy Raye favors a run-oriented, clock-dominated game.  That’s where the fantasy star of the 49ers, Frank Gore, will make his mark.  Raye was part of the reason why Thomas Jones was so successful last year and he will attempt to have Gore return to the dominance he displayed back in 2006.  He should easily eclipse the 1036 yards he put up in 2008 and should reach double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.  But there is a drawback to Raye becoming OC.  He usually prefers a backup running back to be in on obvious passing situations so Gore should see a drop in his receiving numbers.  Nonetheless, he remains a top-10 RB and must-start in all formats.

TE Vernon Davis has all the physical tools to be a fantasy star.  But this game isn’t all physical and he’s only worth drafting if you’re in desperate need for a backup TE.  When Michael Crabtree signs (September?) he will need a couple of weeks to digest the playbook.  He won’t be relevant fantasy-wise until the last half of the season so if you have an open spot on your bench, draft/buy low, stash him there, and reap the benefits in November and December.  Isaac Bruce will turn 37 in November but with him you know what you’re getting-a modest number of receptions and yards and a handful of touchdowns.  He’s worth a late round pick, especially in PPR leagues, and is someone you can plug in if there’s an injury to one of your starters.  The #3 receiver in SF is worth watching too and not just because he will start until Crabtree gets acclimated.  Josh Morgan made some spectacular catches last season in limited playing time and posted an impressive 16.0 average on his 20 receptions.  According to the Associated Press, Morgan has been the star among receivers at training camp and will look to transfer that success into the regular season.  He is a sleeper who could be starting for Crabtree the first half of the season and then replacing Bruce as starter over the last half of the season.

The two other teams that changed head coaches, Indianapolis and the NY Jets, retained their offensive coordinator and will run the same schemes they ran last year.  The one team that changed its offensive coordinator who was not profiled in this blog is the New Orleans Saints.  They replaced Doug Marrone with their quarterbacks coach, Pete Carmichael, Jr.  But it’s common knowledge that HC Sean Payton calls the plays in New Orleans so Carmichael’s position, much like Marrone’s former one, is simply a change in title and his promotion has little, if any, impact on the Saints’ offensive scheme.

This is part 3 of a four-part series detailing how scheme changes affect fantasy performance.  This excerpt focuses on the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks.  Please also check out Part 1 and Part 2.

 Denver [HC: McDaniels (Patriots), OC: McCoy (Panthers)]

With Josh McDaniels now at the helm, he will attempt to replicate the system he ran while offensive coordinator of the Patriots.  With the additions made to the offense, along with the incumbent starters, the personnel looks very similar to the 2008 version of the New England Patriots.  Kyle Orton is similar to Matt Cassel in terms of reading coverage and spreading the ball around to all the receivers.  What he lacks is the ability to gain yards with his legs and what the Broncos lack is a consistent deep threat like Randy Moss.  Orton’s numbers should fall in between his 2008 production and Cassel’s 2008 production-something along the lines of 3200 yards and 20 touchdowns.

The Randy Moss and Wes Welker roles in the Broncos offense will fall upon Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, respectively.  Royal should be able to match Welker’s numbers across the board.  They’re the same size with the same skill level and have the same responsibilities in terms of where they line up and also in the return game.  Marshall, however, lacks the speed to be the vertical threat that Moss was for New England.  Marshall is a very good receiver but can’t just run by people like Moss can and I see that as leading to a decline in touchdowns when compared to Moss.  While he is still a must-start fantasy WR and will get you over 1000 yards, I don’t see Marshall getting double digit touchdowns after only netting 6 last year.  Because of that, if you are in a PPR league, I would draft Royal ahead of Marshall.  Their yards will be about the same and Marshall may get only 2 or 3 more touchdowns than Royal; but that differential doesn’t make up for the 20-30 more receptions that Royal will get.  Jabar Gaffney will resume his role as the flanker and put up his pedestrian 400 yards while TE Tony Scheffler, who was once a rising fantasy star, will take a back seat in this scheme as the wide receivers are the focal points.  He’s still worth a look in later rounds as is any starting TE on a pass-oriented team because of the many red zone opportunities.

As he did in NE, McDaniels will employ a running-back-by-committee spearheaded by a young back.  Knowshon Moreno will fill the Laurence Maroney-role and should lead the Broncos in carries, albeit it may not be more than 15 a game.  LaMont Jordan comes over from NE as the goal-line back and offers little fantasy value besides that.  One interesting development through training camp and the preseason will be to see who emerges as the 3rd-down back.  As Kevin Faulk proved last year, this is a very valuable role in this type of offense as he posted nearly 1000 total yards and 6 touchdowns.  A PPR scoring system further increases the value so watch closely to see if Correll Buckhalter is able to win this job from a slew of young Bronco running backs.

Seattle [HC: Mora (Seahawks), OC: Knapp (Raiders)]

These two will reprise the same positions they had when they were with the Falcons from 2004-2006.  Knapp is unquestionably a run-first coordinator as in his eight years as offensive coordinator for three franchises, his teams have finished in the top 10 in rushing all eight years.  His zone blocking scheme is a perfect fit for RB Julius Jones who can use his great acceleration skills to burst through a hole.  From looking at lots of mock drafts, I can see that Jones is being undervalued as his average position is somewhere in the 100s.  If Warrick Dunn at 31 was able to run for over 1100 yards, then 28-year-old Julius Jones should get to at least 1000.  The only knock on him is the lack of touchdowns as the goal line back role will fall to T.J. Duckett.  He has had that role throughout his career and remains one of the best at fulfilling it.  He could be had at the end of the draft for a cheap source of touchdowns.

QB Matt Hasselbeck was hurt for most of last year and ineffective when he did play.  That means he will also be undervalued by many fantasy owners but you should not be “that guy” that drafts him four rounds too early thinking you would outsmart everyone.  Besides his health, another thing to monitor during preseason is how he adjusts to the new offense.  He had played in the West Coast Offense his entire career so he’ll have to make some amendments to his game in terms of playcalling, new receiver routes, and audibles.  According to Coach Mora, the Seahawks will use some shotgun this season so we still may get some of the Matt Hasselbeck of old.  But with the age, injuries, and offensive transition, I would be cautious in drafting Hasselbeck.  He’s no longer a fantasy starter so it may be best to grab him in the later rounds as your backup QB.

Has there ever been a more overrated receiver (fantasy-wise) than Deion Branch?  He’s always getting hurt, never has reached 1000 yards in a season, and doesn’t score many touchdowns.  I would not even draft Branch until he proves he can do at least one of those three.  Nate Burleson is also coming off an injury and will be either a #2 or #3 receiver in a run-dominated offense so I would also wait for him to prove that he’s healthy before inserting him into my starting lineup.  The two receivers worth starting each week are WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh and TE John Carlson.  T.J. is like a bigger version of Wes Welker or Eddie Royal-lots of receptions, around 1000 yards, and a low yards-per-reception average.  But T.J. has the size that allows him to be a better red zone option than the other two.  He will make a solid fantasy WR2 with the ability to be a WR1 in PPR leagues.  Since drops don’t result in negative fantasy points, John Carlson is worthy to be a starting TE on your fantasy team.  However, don’t expect to see an increase in production over last year as the offense will limit his opportunities.  He is now the second receiving option in the red zone so he likely won’t match his five touchdowns from last year.  Nevertheless, he will still catch upwards of 50 passes and approach 600 yards which is good enough to be a top-12 fantasy TE.

When you think of the big offseason moves, the first ones that come to mind are TO to Buffalo, Cutler to Chicago, and Gonzales to the Falcons.  While all those are important personnel changes for their new teams, what may be just as important are the scheme (coaching) changes made throughout the league.  Including former interim coaches Tom Cable of Oakland and Mike Singletary of San Francisco, eleven teams will have new head coaches in 2009.  Not counting the vacant offensive coordinator positions in New England, Oakland, and Arizona, eight teams will have new offensive coordinators in 2009 and many of them will be bringing in different schemes than what was in place before.  This is the first part of a four-part series that details how knowing an offensive scheme can go a long way in predicting player performance.

Cleveland [HC: Mangini (Jets), OC: Daboll (Jets)]
The forecast of the Browns depends entirely on who’s playing quarterback.  If it’s Anderson then expect to see the 2009 Browns resembling the 2006-2007 Jets with Chad Pennington at quarterback as Mangini would use a conservative approach with the offense.  But if Quinn wins the job, seeing how his physical tools are similar to Brett Favre’s, expect the Browns to air it out more in ‘09 which means more touchdowns, but also more interceptions.
The backfields between the 2008 Jets and 2009 Browns are eerily similar.

Jamal Lewis becomes Mangini’s next 30-year-old running back to try to re-invigorate and Jerome Harrison, who averaged 7.2 ypc in ‘08, fills Leon Washington’s third down role.  The problem is that Jamal Lewis’ resurgent season happened two years ago and he enters 2009 with 740 more carries than what Jones entered 2008 with.  Don’t expect an increase across the board like Jones had, but as the definitive goal-line back, Lewis will certainly score more than the four touchdowns he had last year.  As far as the other former pro bowler on offense, Braylon Edwards, he cannot possibly be worse than he was last year.  He would be an absolute steal as a WR2 on your team so if he’s available in the mid-rounds then jump on him.  Without Kellen Winslow garnering the safety’s attention, and with a rookie lining up as the other receiver, Edwards will be double teamed more often than before.  But he still has the talent to be what Jerricho Cotchery was not-a consistent down the field receiver.  He may never score 16 touchdowns again in a season like he did in 2007 but I think the nearly 1300 yards he put up that season is attainable.

Early reports out of training camp are that Steve Heiden is starting at tight end and Mike Furrey is lining up opposite Edwards.  However, both those positions have young players in Martin Rucker and Brian Robiskie at TE and WR, respectively, ready to take up those roles.  The veterans may give way to their younger counterparts at some point during the season but currently, none of those four is worth putting in your lineup.

Kansas City [HC: Haley (Cardinals), OC: Gailey (Chiefs)]
Even though Kansas City retained offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, their offense is essentially starting over.  Gailey employed the spread offense to utilize QB Tyler Thigpen’s running ability and his team’s lack of talent.  Now with Matt Cassel at quarterback and with all plays going through Haley, the Chiefs will have a more traditional look on offense-if you consider three-receiver sets traditional.  Cassel’s biggest problems are his inabaility to avoid sacks and his lack of accuracy when throwing the deep ball.  That combined with a lesser talented receiving core mean that his numbers will dip in 2009.

Larry Johnson will undertake the Edgerrin James role of the unhappy running back.  But LJ still is a much better runner than what Edge ever was in Arizona.  He won’t come anywhere near the dominance he had in 2005-2006 but he should once again become a 1000 yard rusher, assuming he stays healthy.  Also, don’t forget about all the touchdowns Tim Hightower scored last year for Arizona (10).  Those scoring opportunities fall into the hands of Johnson and as with Braylon Edwards, LJ could be another steal of a draft pick.

Veteran receivers Amani Toomer and Bobby Engram will be the second and third receivers, respectively, in Todd Haley’s base offense but neither offers much fantasy value at these points in their careers.  Haley also doesn’t think much of tight ends so Brad Cottam has minimal value except for occasional red zone looks.  The one receiver who will have an impact is Dwayne Bowe.  His physical features and skill set are most similar to Anquan Boldin among all of the Cardinals receivers.  Yet Bowe has more speed although that may somewhat be negated by Cassel’s inaccurate deep throw.  Nonetheless, Bowe will have plenty of reception opportunities as Kansas City will often be down late in games.  Common belief says receivers don’t truly break out until their third season and after Bowe posted 1000 yards in ’08, I can’t wait to see what he can do with some quarterback stability in 2009.

Last week Green Bay Packers wide receiver Donald Driver made something painfully clear: the Bears don’t have good wide receivers.

“They don’t have a receiver,” Driver said on a radio show. “They don’t have any true receivers that step up and play and take their team to where they want to go.

“I love Devin, and Devin knows that, but Devin plays [defensive back]. I don’t think he’s just a solid receiver right now. He may become one as years go on, but it doesn’t happen overnight.”

Driver has been a solid receiver in Green Bay for years, but his outspokenness comes as a bit of a surprise, especially when he went on to directly call out Devin Hester. The unnecessary berating does have merit, however. Hester hasn’t been playing wide receiver long; last season was his first as a starter. His numbers weren’t particularly impressive: 51 receptions, 665 yards, and 3 touchdowns.

Not exactly on par with Larry Fitzgerald and his ilk.

But then, Kyle Orton was hardly on par with Kurt Warner. Did anyone have high expectations for Hester in his first complete season as a starting wide receiver — in the Bears offense? Probably not. That he finished with 51 receptions and a 13.0 yard per reception average is an accomplishment on which he can build this season.

The question he must answer now is whether he can build on it and turn his potential into a career.

Critics like Donald Driver are quick to point out this is not an overnight process, but Hester isn’t working with a blank canvas. He has one season of experience and talent other players will never have. He has incredible speed, but he must polish his route-running. Doing that will take him to the next level, especially with quarterback Jay Cutler commanding the offense.

That having been said, do not expect stratospheric numbers from Hester in his second season. There are three primary reasons: first, Chicago may still find another wide receiver this offseason to act as the “number one”; second, Jay Cutler hasn’t been practicing with Hester long and it will take the two time to form a rapport; lastly, this is still Chicago, so even though the Bears brought in Jay Cutler to quarterback the offense, the plan is to run the ball first and throw it second.

Hester is a spectacular talent at wide receiver, and I do believe, in time, he will develop into a solid starting wide receiver. That is, however, still at least one to two seasons from now; don’t expect him — or the Bears — to completely turn around the passing game overnight.

Do, however, expect better-than-usual passing against the Green Bay Packers.

One year ago Michael Turner had never carried the ball more than 80 times in a single season. He had never scored more than three touchdowns or averaged at least 40 yards per game. He was second fiddle to LaDainian Tomlinson, who has missed one NFL start since Turner joined the league in 2004. Now Turner is considered a top three fantasy back.

What changed? A season with 376 carries gave fantasy players new ideas and high hopes, as did the resulting 1,699 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. No one in the NFL carried the ball as much as Turner, and only Adrian Peterson finished with more rushing yards.

So why not make him one of the first players to come off the board when your league’s draft rolls around? He has minimal mileage and incredible size, making him mostly immune to late season breakdowns that could affect other backs. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the Falcons plan to continue using him as much as possible, despite persisting hopes the team will seek throwing the ball significantly more this season.

“[Running is] what this football team is all about,” insists head coach Mike Smith. “We’re not going to change what we do on offense. We are just going to have another option to go to. At the core, we’re going to run the football. That’s what we believe in.”

In reference to the addition of Tony Gonzalez, a move some have predicted will give the team reason to balance the offense with more passing, Smith continues: “Sure, we have another weapon in the passing game, but we like to run it more than 30 times. With Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood and our other backs, we’ve got a good stable of runners.”

This was a run-first team last season, and it will be a run first team this season. There’s no need to press Ryan throw the ball more often if the team can get away with running the ball 35 times per game like it did last season. Hey, they didn’t even lead the NFL in rushing attempts; Baltimore did - and they made the postseason, too.

If this offense does want to run the ball more often, however, Turner will play a diminished role. That doesn’t mean this is going to turn into a dreaded “running back by committee” offense, but who could expect Turner to carry 374 times again? Offensive coordinator Mike Malarkey admits it can’t happen, at least not if they want Turner to be a productive back in future seasons: “You can’t run 370 times a season. If Michael does that, he’s going to wear out over time.”

That leaves us with a Turner who might carry the ball 30-50 fewer times next season. Is that going to be an issue? Not really. Turner averaged 4.5 yards per carry in 2008, so it’s fair to suggest he can do the same this season. Averaging 20 carries per game, a decrease from the 23.3 he averaged last season, Turner’s season total could dip to 1,440 yards. That’s a fantastic Pro Bowl season.

There is one reason to think he will find the endzone significantly fewer times: Tony Gonzalez. True, Mike Smith insists this offense will be run-first, but one has to assume the area of the field Gonzalez is especially useful is in the red zone and inside the 10-yard line. Matt Ryan found his tight ends in the endzone twice last season - no way Gonzalez finishes with a total that low this season. He’s arguably the greatest receiving tight end in NFL history, and Matt Ryan is going to love him when the offense is in sniffing distance of the goal line. That might mean Turner’s touchdown total will dip to around 13. Again, that’s going to get him the Pro Bowl nod, but does it make him a top three fantasy pick? My gut tells me he’s going to finish in the top seven with the potential to make the top five. The backs I would draft ahead of him: Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Maurice-Jones Drew, and perhaps Steven Jackson.

That said, it’s tough to pass on guy playing in an offense that plans to run the ball 30-35 times on a weekly basis.

Drew Brees is 2009’s best fantasy football quarterback - at least that’s the consensus fantasy players have reached, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, a mock draft site. Though Peyton Manning has been perenially drafted before others for many years, with Tom Brady coming close or even surpassing him the past two seasons, this season it’s all about Drew Brees, New Orleans’ favorite Saint.

But when you think about it, it’s not particularly surprising to see Brees being taken first. He plays in one of the league’s hottest offenses built around the pass. Running the ball is an afterthought. Need evidence? The team’s biggest name “running back”, Reggie Bush, is a slot wide receiver.

No one in the NFL throws as many passes as Brees; it’s not even close. Take a look at the image below displaying the number of passes thrown by Brees the past two seasons, stacked against the rest of the NFL’s top quarterbacks.

Brees has a commanding lead over the rest of the NFL, averaging 643 pass attempts per season. That’s nearly 20 percent more than the quarterback just behind him, Cutler. A quarterback who throws that many passes will consistently finish near the top of the NFL in most statistical categories. Even if his touchdown percentage is a relatively mediocre four percent, he’ll still throw 26 touchdown passes in a given season with 640 attempts.

In that respect, quarterback is no different than any other position. More opportunities leads to a higher rate of scoring. Even mediocre averages in terms of yards per attempt or touchdown percentage will lead to high totals by the end of the season.

But Brees wasn’t “mediocre” or “average” in any respect last season. Look at the next bar chart, this one displaying his passing yards as last season progressed.

Not once last season did Brees finish with under 200 passing yards; that’s incredible. More important he finished with ten 300-yard games. He was a fantasy scoring machine, averaging well over 300 yards per game. He averaged more than 300 passing yards per game. To put that into perspective, consider that he is only the fifth quarterback in NFL history to average at least 300 yards per game. The others: Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Dan Fouts, and Kurt Warner.

That’s good company.

But the most important thing to realize about Brees is how many touchdown passes he throws. Though some fans may not realize it, over the past three seasons he is second in the NFL to only one man: Peyton Manning. Check it out:

Averaging nearly 30 touchdowns per season for three seasons is no small feat, so it comes as no surprise that only Manning and Brees are near the top of the list. The former has pushed the bar for consistency to a new level, on pace to break every significant career passing record, and Brees has thrown more passes than anyone in the NFL while maintaining an above average touchdown percentage.

Considering everything Brees has accomplished while in New Orleans, it comes as no surprise fantasy players are waking up and drafting him quite high. While I’m not sure I agree that he is more draftable than Peyton Manning, I do believe he should be one of the first two quarterbacks taken on draft day. Barring injury, he’s a lock to throw the ball at least 625 times. That should be enough for him to post another outstanding season with at least 4,500 passing yards and 30+ touchdowns.

It’s hard to believe Kurt Warner, one of the NFL’s premier quarterbacks, is being drafted as the 6th best in fantasy football leagues behind Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers. Granted, both Rivers and Rodgers are surrounded by talented players on their respective teams, but I don’t see Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, nor did I see them pass the ball for more than 4,500 yards last season.

Warner is playing in an offense that scored nearly 27 points per game last season and hasn’t lost any significant components in transitioning to this season. Boldin, despite his requests to be traded, is still starting at wide receiver, opposite of the league’s best, Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona added Chris Wells in the draft to split time with Tim Hightower, who last season scored 10 rushing touchdowns.

In other words, he’s undervalued.

Warner threw at least one touchdown pass in 15 games last season and completed at least 70 percent of his attempts in eight games. He had seven 300-yard games and four others in which he passed for at least 250 yards.

Those concerned the absence of last season’s offensive coordinator, Todd Haley (to Kansas City), should ditch their worries. In 2007 Ken Whisenhunt called the plays – Warner finished the season with 8 consecutive multiple-touchdown games. In just 14 games (only 11 of which he started) he passed for 27 touchdowns. Had he started from week one, there is little doubt in my mind he would have finished with 30-34 touchdowns.

We have consistency and outstanding production on the table. Is there any reason to suspect he won’t continue to produce like he has the past two seasons?

Unless you buy into “Murphy’s Law” for Super Bowl losers (“whatever can go wrong, will”), no. Warner may be a year older, but if he can play as well as he did last season, why suspect this season will be the breaking point? Edgerrin James is out of the equation, but it’s probably for the best. After all, he was responsible for just 12 of Warner’s completions and he rushed for just 514 yards and 3 touchdowns. He wasn’t a critical component in the offense, and his absence is unlikely to cause problems for the offense. If “Beanie” Wells can average at least four yards per carry and finish the year with 25 receptions, the offense won’t miss a beat.

Let’s get this straight: you have essentially the same offense, a rookie running back nearly a decade younger than Edgerrin James taking over the latter’s role, and an outstanding head coach. Where can you go wrong?

Most everyone will admit Warner is one of the best passing quarterbacks in the league. His quick release and smart throws took the Cardinals to the Super Bowl last season – just imagine where he can take your fantasy team this season.

Fantasy football drafts are always an uncertainty. Injuries can kill a season for a fantasy team, especially at the running back position. That’s why we draft “handcuffs” - backup running backs who stand a legitimate chance of starting at some point during the season because the starter is a solid back who commands attention because of a history of injuries or some other reason.

The following handcuffs are your best bets for the 2009 season.

LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - LaDainian Tomlinson is a stellar running back, but there are reasons to suspect 2009 may be a season fantasy players regret if they don’t lock up Darren Sproles. Tomlinson has finished every season of his 8-year career with at least 340 touches and he just turned 30 - those are both solid reasons to suspect he’s due for an injury at some point in the near future. Sproles averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 11.8 yards per reception last season. If Tomlinson is injured, he’s a capable starting back.

Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson - Lynch suffered a minor injury this offseason and will be suspended at least a couple games this season. Jackson had a solid showing in 2008 when he did get touches, and word on the street is he’ll be lining up more at wide receiver this season. Last year he finished with 37 receptions, so fantasy players can expect more this season. More significant, in flex position leagues, Jackson can garner starts on a semi-weekly basis. And if Lynch does suffer an injury at some point during the season Jackson could break out.

Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene - The 31-year old Jones is coming off four consecutive 320-touch seasons, making him a liability in some leagues. If your league’s draft is sometime before August or in the early part of the month, you may be able to draft Greene at a bargain. Trade rumors are circulating and Jones may be traded at some point during that month, so if you can land Greene he may wind up the biggest “boom” pick of your draft.

Joseph Addai and Donald Brown - Joseph Addai has been one of the league’s most disappointing young players. He missed several games last season and finished with just 155 carries for 544 yards. Donald Brown has reportedly looked very good in training camp, though he has struggled to make catches out of the backfield. Still, if he plays well throughout camp and improves his receiving skills before the season he can steal a fair number of touches from Addai or even supplant him on the roster. Addai’s status as a starter is questionable and his injuries make him a question mark.

Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy - The Philadelphia Eagles don’t run the ball often, but when they have in the past Westbrook has been the one constant who made it worth changing pace. Westbrook’s offseason ankle injury raises questions, however, because he hasn’t played a complete season in his career. McCoy is the rookie back who can steal carries during the season, especially out of the wildcat offense. He’ll be the starter if Westbrook goes down, and he’s built for this type of offense.

Tight ends are an interesting bunch of fantasy football players. They’re arguably the hardest to predict, outside of kickers and perhaps defenses, especially when you consider how inconsistent they can play throughout the course of a season.

But as the game has changed and philosophies adjusted with the times, the tight end position has evolved. Tight ends are faster than ever before, and if they can’t catch, they might as well move to the offensive line.

Tony Scheffler is one of these evolved players, a tight end who excels more as a receiver than a blocker. He’s fast, athletic, and he can catch better than some wide receivers, all of which might add up to make him even more valuable this season in Josh McDaniels’ new offense.

McDaniels isn’t known for making use of tight ends. In New England they weren’t often used as receivers, instead blocking for the most part. Because the Broncos have a better blocker in Daniel Graham, a former New Englander, Scheffler’s value is up in the air.

In practice this offseason Scheffler has been limited to playing opposite Graham in two tight end sets. That’s the role he played under Mike Shanahan, which may bode well for him when you consider he’s finished the past two seasons (29 games) with a combined 89 receptions for 1,194 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Of course it’s hard to project for a tight end under a new regime, especially when the coach is known for rarely using them as receivers. Scheffler will no doubt play a role in the offense and should finish with at least 35-40 receptions, but the bigger question is what he’ll average per catch next season. In 2008 he was picking up a stunning 16.1 yards per reception, but the season before he averaged just 11.2 yards. While an offensive coordinator in New England, McDaniels’ tight ends averaged around 11 yards per reception.

On the other hand, in 2006, McDaniels’ first season as the team’s offensive coordinator, tight end Ben Watson finished the season with 49 receptions and averaged 13.1 yards per reception. Who’s to say he won’t use Scheffler in a similar vein?

As for touchdowns, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Kyle Orton locked on to Scheffler and Graham in the red zone. Furthermore, if wide receiver Brandon Marshall happens to be traded as requested, Josh McDaniels may have no choice but to use the tight ends, especially Scheffler who is clearly the better receiver.

Interesting to consider is whether McDaniels will use Scheffler outside his usual role as a tight end at times this season. Scheffler draws parallels to Indianapolis Colts tight end Dallas Clark in build and athleticism. Seeing him play a hybrid role similar to Clark would be interesting, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the team used him there at different points during the course of the season.

Expect Scheffler to finish 2009 with around 45 receptions for 585 yards and 6 touchdowns. Those numbers could be enough to make Scheffler a top ten tight end and certainly a fantasy starter.

The Detroit Lions might have been 0-16 last season, but if there was one bright spot on the roster it was wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Despite a lackluster passing game that completed just 55 percent of its passes for a little under 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns, Johnson finished with a spectacular season: 78 receptions, 1,331 yards, and 12 touchdowns.

Johnson especially hit his stride starting week 6, as displayed above in the graph. (Where’d I get these graphs?) Between that game and the end of the season Johnson compiled 10 of his touchdown receptions, failing to find the endzone in just three games during the 12 game span.

Interestingly, Johnson was even more effective on the road than he was at home, scoring 7 touchdowns when visiting other stadiums finding the endzone in six of eight away games vs. four of eight home games.

Johnson’s yardage was mildly more inconsistent, but after week five, as with the touchdowns, he managed to gain a fair number of yards per game, usually around 60-100 yards. Over the course of the season, Johnson averaged a rather impressive 87 yards per game. Combined with the touchdowns, Johnson was scoring about 13 points per game in most standard leagues.

If there was one area where Johnson could have been more consistent, it was receptions. In five of 16 games (or about 1/3 of all games), Johnson finished with three or fewer catches. Of course in 8 other games he finished with at least five receptions, so things were never too bad. And besides, when a receiver averages 17.1 yards per catch, who the heck really cares? Especially when he averages about 4 receptions per game.

Johnson was a great wide receiver last season, and most fantasy players will gladly draft him as a top fantasy receiver. It’s rare a receiver can excel like Johnson did last season with the quarterbacks he had throwing him the ball. So who cares if Matthew Stafford is a rookie? He has Calvin Johnson. And if last season is any indication, that will be enough.