1. The 49ers’ offensive line cannot create any running lanes.  Frank Gore only ran for 32 yards on 13 carries vs. Houston and he was often stuffed at the line of scrimmage-a sure indication of a poor run-blocking unit.  Some people may ask the question, “How did Gore run for 200 yards vs. Seattle?”  Well that was entirely Gore’s efforts (and Seattle’s lack of effort) as his two big runs were due to poor angles by the Seattle free safety.  What should have been eight yard runs turned into 80 yards runs because the safety was undisciplined.  If you take away those two plays, Frank Gore only has one rush of over 10 yards this season in 50 attempts.  With the insertion of Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree into the starting lineup the 49ers may turn to a more pass-friendly offense which will hurt Gore’s stock even more.
2. You can blame the Packers’ O-line for Greg Jennings lack of production.  Since Aaron Rodgers is not getting much time in the pocket due to the oncoming rush, the Packers have almost eliminated Rodgers’ 7-step dropbacks.  Those are the plays that Rodgers and Favre hooked up with Jennings with for many of his 21 touchdowns over the last two years.  Since there’s not much time for Rodgers to allow his WRs to run deep routes, the Packers have gone to a true west-coast offense which specializes in short-to-intermediate routes and running after the catch.  That makes Donald Driver the de facto #1 receiver in Green Bay as YAC is pretty much the only statistic that he beat Jennings in over the last two seasons.
3. LaDainian Tomlinson better not say a peep if he’s pulled during a goal line situation again.  A week after LT displayed his frustration on the sideline after being replaced by Darren Sproles during a goal-to-go situation, LT failed to score on all nine of his attempts inside the seven yard line vs. Kansas City.  For the season, Tomlinson has only scored one TD on 14 attempts inside the 10 yard line.  Even in 2008’s “down year” LT had more success as he scored 7 TDs in 25 attempts within the 10 yard line.
4. Sam Aiken, not Julian Edelman, is the Patriots’ #3 wide receiver.  Even though Edelman has more receptions and yards than Aiken, it’s only because he received more opportunities to play when Wes Welker was injured.  Both Welker and Edelman are slot receivers so Edelman naturally advanced to Welker’s slot position when he went down earlier in the year.  Aiken has assumed Joey Galloway’s old position of flanker and even when Edelman returns from his arm injury, he will likely only play when Welker needs a rest or in four-wide sets.  Although Aiken is third in the pecking order among Patriots’ wide receivers, this position has traditionally been very productive as former Patriots Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney combined for 1600 yards and 10 TDs in 2007 and 2008.
5. The Bears are definitely a pass-first team now and it’s not only because they have Jay Cutler at QB.  The offseason addition of LT Orlando Pace and promotion of RT Chris Williams changed the culture of this Bears’ offense.  Williams is a finesse (pass) blocker and Pace no longer has the acceleration to get to the second level to block LBs.  Also, Greg Olsen has replaced Desmond Clark as starting tight end and while no doubt Olsen is the better receiver, Clark is by far the better run-blocker.  The numbers don’t lie: through six games Matt Forte has 35 fewer carries than what he has through the first six games in 2008.  These changes in mentality and personnel may ultimately make this Bears team better than last year’s, but it may also make Matt Forte a fantasy bust relative to the position he was drafted.
6. The Dolphins wide receivers scare absolutely no one and Tony Sparano does not seem to notice it.  After running for 80 yards and 3 TDs on his first nine carries, Ricky Williams touched the ball only one more time in the game-and it was on a reception.  Instead, Sparano had his QB who had started all of 2 career games throwing to the likes of Ted Ginn, Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo, and Brian Hartline-none of whom are over 6’1” or weigh more than 190 lbs.  Ginn looked particularly bad while dropping two passes and has yet to show that he’s anything more than a return specialist, and he doesn’t even do that well.  Hopefully Sparano will notice what got him the 21 point lead and go back to doing more of that.  In the two games Henne has won, the rushing attempts outnumbered the passing attempts 81-48.  In the loss to the Saints Henne threw 36 times compared to 30 rushing attempts (25 by Brown and Williams).  With a rematch with the Jets ahead, expect to see more of Ricky and Ronnie and less of the Ginn Man.
7. Jeff Reed can’t tackle.  ‘Nuff said

This is the final excerpt of the four-part series on scheme changes affecting fantasy performance.  This blog focuses on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers.  Please remember to also view Part 1 ,Part 2, and Part 3.

Tampa Bay [HC: Morris (Buccaneers), OC: Jagodzinski (Boston College)]

After two years in college, new OC Jeff Jagodzinski returns to the NFL and brings with him two separate schemes-one for the running game and one for the passing game.  While at BC, he learned the West Coast offense from former coach Tom O’Brien and when he was O-Line for the Falcons from 2004-2005, he learned the zone-blocking scheme from guru Alex Gibbs.  The Bucs QB best suited to run the WCO is Luke McCown as Byron Leftwich’s windup is too slow for the quick passing game and rookie Josh Freeman will need a lot of time to absorb the playbook.  However, Leftwich has started the first two preseason games and it looks as if he’s seized control of the starting position.  Regardless, his handle on the starting job may not be permanent and that makes him at best a bye-week replacement.  Freeman should get a shot later in the season and could possibly warrant a roster spot on a team in a keeper league.

New addition Derrick Ward should work well with this offensive scheme as he can quickly find the open hole and accelerate through it.  But don’t expect him to put up the 5.6 ypc average he had with the Giants in 2008.  Reasons why are explained in this article, but in short, Ward runs better on turf, in cold weather, and while coming off the bench-none of which he will experience in Tampa.  Another 1000-yard season is likely albeit with far more carries.  Ward will also be a factor in the passing game which will increase his value.  But don’t make the mistake of reaching for him in the second or third round as Earnest Graham will see many carries and will likely be the goal line back, thus stealing some touchdowns away.

The in-flux QB position will have an effect on the Tampa receivers.  Antonio Bryant came back to the NFL last season with a bang but his recent knee surgery will keep him inactive until early September.  At the end of the 2008 season, I saw him as a low-end WR2 but with this injury and the shaky QB play, his value now becomes a serviceable WR3.  As mediocre as Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese were last year, I don’t see whoever the Bucs QB is this year replicating the 3700 yards those two put up last year.  Unless your scoring system gets you points for de-cleatings by a receiver, stay far away from Michael Clayton.  Kellen Winslow is the ultimate wildcard.  The risk/reward is obvious so I’ll let you make your own judgments on if you think he can stay healthy.  But what I can tell you is that if Winslow does stay healthy, he is in the perfect system to maximize his talents.  With a dearth of competent receivers and with a passing game that highly values intermediate routes, Winslow could have one of the greatest TE seasons ever.  But that’s only possible if he can stay healthy.  Personally, I would take a chance on him after drafting the rest of my starters as he should be available in the 6th round.  But each fantasy owner is different so it’s up to you to decide if you want to take that chance.

San Francisco [HC: Singletary (49ers), OC: Raye (Jets)]

Former NY Jets running backs coach Jimmy Raye II becomes the 49ers’ seventh offensive coordinator in seven years-never a good sign for any team.  It’s also not a good sign when the #1 overall pick who’s only 25 years old can’t beat out an undrafted free agent at QB but that’s the case with Shaun Hill being the projected starter over Alex Smith.  Hill played surprisingly well last year when he became the starter once Mike Singletary became head coach.  When projected over 16 games, his numbers would have looked like this: 3637 yds., 23 TD, and 14 INT which would have been good enough for the top 12 among quarterbacks.  But don’t count on that production this season as Jimmy Raye favors a run-oriented, clock-dominated game.  That’s where the fantasy star of the 49ers, Frank Gore, will make his mark.  Raye was part of the reason why Thomas Jones was so successful last year and he will attempt to have Gore return to the dominance he displayed back in 2006.  He should easily eclipse the 1036 yards he put up in 2008 and should reach double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.  But there is a drawback to Raye becoming OC.  He usually prefers a backup running back to be in on obvious passing situations so Gore should see a drop in his receiving numbers.  Nonetheless, he remains a top-10 RB and must-start in all formats.

TE Vernon Davis has all the physical tools to be a fantasy star.  But this game isn’t all physical and he’s only worth drafting if you’re in desperate need for a backup TE.  When Michael Crabtree signs (September?) he will need a couple of weeks to digest the playbook.  He won’t be relevant fantasy-wise until the last half of the season so if you have an open spot on your bench, draft/buy low, stash him there, and reap the benefits in November and December.  Isaac Bruce will turn 37 in November but with him you know what you’re getting-a modest number of receptions and yards and a handful of touchdowns.  He’s worth a late round pick, especially in PPR leagues, and is someone you can plug in if there’s an injury to one of your starters.  The #3 receiver in SF is worth watching too and not just because he will start until Crabtree gets acclimated.  Josh Morgan made some spectacular catches last season in limited playing time and posted an impressive 16.0 average on his 20 receptions.  According to the Associated Press, Morgan has been the star among receivers at training camp and will look to transfer that success into the regular season.  He is a sleeper who could be starting for Crabtree the first half of the season and then replacing Bruce as starter over the last half of the season.

The two other teams that changed head coaches, Indianapolis and the NY Jets, retained their offensive coordinator and will run the same schemes they ran last year.  The one team that changed its offensive coordinator who was not profiled in this blog is the New Orleans Saints.  They replaced Doug Marrone with their quarterbacks coach, Pete Carmichael, Jr.  But it’s common knowledge that HC Sean Payton calls the plays in New Orleans so Carmichael’s position, much like Marrone’s former one, is simply a change in title and his promotion has little, if any, impact on the Saints’ offensive scheme.

After recently unveiling the top-25 quarterback rankings, it’s time to move on to the most important position in fantasy football: running back. Due to its vital nature, we’re going much deeper with the quarterbacks, taking a look at the top-50 runners.

1. Adrian Peterson: An across-the-board choice for most as the No. 1 back, nobody will be surprised if he puts together the sixth season ever of at least 2,000 rushing yards. As it is, his 1,760 rushing yards last season ranked 21st in history in a single season.

2. Michael Turner: Turner’s 376 carries last season are a bit of a concern to some. Outside of that, there’s little reason to think he won’t be good for double-digit touchdowns once again.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew: His first season without Fred Taylor promises to be a big one for the diminutive back. Among backs with at least 150 carries, only DeAngelo Williams and Brandon Jacobs averaged fewer carries per touchdown than MJD’s mark of 16.4.

4. Matt Forte:A major find as a rookie, he did it all for the Bears a year ago. As the graph below shows, he was fifth in fantasy points with 12 total touchdowns and over 1,700 total yards. He ran for just 3.9 yards-per-carry last season, but that number should improve with an opened-up passing game led by Jay Cutler.

5. Steven Jackson: Should he stay healthy all season, he’s a candidate to lead the league in all-purpose yards, and lead fantasy backs in scoring. There’s precious few other offensive options in St. Louis, so Jackson should see more than his share of touches.

6. Chris Johnson: LenDale White won’t continue to take every goal-line carry from Johnson, who still ran for nine scores and added one more via reception. It’ll be difficult for him to replicate his yards-per-carry average of 4.9 from last year, but that will be fine if the trade-off is a few more touchdowns from the two-yard line.

7. DeAngelo Williams: Twenty touchdowns isn’t happening again; that was a one-time shot. Jonathan Stewart should continue to evolve and steal some of those scores, but even so, Williams has proven throughout his career to be dynamic with the ball in his hands and should surpass 10 scores yet again.

8. LaDainian Tomlinson: Reports of his demise have been somewhat exaggerated. No, he isn’t going to score you 31 total touchdowns like he did in 2006. But even if he gets 8-10, with 1,400 combined rushing and receiving yards, is that so bad?

9. Marion Barber: The Barbarian is more than just a bruiser, as he also has soft hands which helped him grab 52 passes in 2008. However, fantasy owners probably better remember his untimely injury situation last season which helped him amass a total of two fantasy points from Weeks 14-16. That was simply bad luck, and had it come in Weeks 4-6 instead, we’re not talking about it.

10. Steve Slaton: The Texans were criticized for taking Slaton in the third round because the rest of the world figured he was too small to be an every-down back. Whoops. He proved everyone wrong with nearly 1,700 total yards and 10 scores.

11. Clinton Portis: It seems as if Portis has been in the league forever, but he’ll only be 28 when the season starts. He’s one of the more reliable players in fantasy, having played fewer than 15 games just twice in his seven seasons.

12. Brandon Jacobs: A bulldozer who is one of the most enjoyable players to watch, Jacobs is also enjoyable to have on your fantasy team. Inside the five-yard-line, good luck stopping him.

13. Frank Gore: With 49ers head coach Mike Singletary vowing a renewed faith in the running game in San Francisco, Gore and his fantasy owners should be the beneficiary. This is especially true if the rookie Glen Coffee - reach in the third round - can’t become a dependable backup.

14. Brian Westbrook: The single scariest player in all of fantasy football, Westbrook’s injury history is far too checkered to ignore. He’s already getting over an ankle injury that has him missing reps in training camp.

15. Ryan Grant: Grant disappointed last season by scoring just four rushing touchdowns. That’s not the production fantasy owners were expecting, especially because he was ninth in the league with over 1,200 rushing yards last season. He should rebound somewhat, but don’t be totally shocked if Brandon Jackson starts to eat up some of his playing time.

16. Pierre Thomas: He’s the best running back on the New Orleans roster, and if sanity prevails, will be the Week 1 starter and get the goal-line carries.

17. Joseph Addai: No doubt he busted out for fantasy owners far and wide last season. But that just means he should be available in later rounds than usual. With Donald Brown on board, Addai’s 2007 numbers may be unattainable, but he’ll certainly do better than what we all suffered through last season.

18. Ronnie Brown: Brown should take even more carries from Ricky Williams this season, and has the receiving skills to produce more than the 33 catches he amassed last season. Hopefully, he gets the opportunity.

19. Marshawn Lynch: The three-game suspension at the beginning of the year will hurt Lynch, but his ability to catch the ball as well as run with it out of the backfield is too much to ignore.

20. Darren McFadden: If those turf toe issues are behind him, watch out. He’s got all the physical talent to become a perennial top-10 fantasy back.

21. Jonathan Stewart: Inconsistency plagued him last season, and fantasy owners couldn’t know on a week-to-week basis what they were getting. In his second season, don’t expect quite the weekly contrast.

22. LenDale White: Don’t expect 15 rushing touchdowns again this season. He’ll lose some of those to backfield mate Johnson.

23. Larry Johnson: There’s still something left in the tank for Johnson, so don’t count him completely out just yet. His days of being a fantasy stalwart are gone, but he can still be useful to fantasy owners.

24. Thomas Jones: He’s 31, the Jets just drafted Shonn Greene, Leon Washington has made his presence felt, and he’s not thrilled with his contract. Jones will regress more than any other fantasy back from 2008.

25. Derrick Ward: Goes to the Bucs to form another 1-2 punch, this time with Earnest Graham. Look for Ward to get the bulk of the carries for the team, but it’s a question as to how many looks inside the 10-yard line he’ll get over Graham.

Best of the Rest

26. Reggie Bush
27. Kevin Smith
28. Le’Ron McClain
29. Chris Wells
30. Jamal Lewis
31. Cedric Benson
32. Willie Parker
33. Earnest Graham
34. Donald Brown
35. Julius Jones
36. Knowshon Moreno
37. Ahmad Bradshaw
38. Tim Hightower
39. LeSean McCoy
40. Maurice Morris
41. Rashard Mendenhall
42. Darren Sproles
43. Sammy Morris
44. Willis McGahee
45. Fred Jackson
46. Felix Jones
47. Chester Taylor
48. Fred Taylor
49. Ricky Williams
50. Shonn Greene

Quick, flashback to 2007. The San Francisco 49ers have high expectations, but after a promising 2-0 start, the team falls flat and loses the next eight games. Four quarterbacks suit up over the course of the season, and, of those who threw at least 100 passes, Alex Smith’s 57.2 quarterback leads the team. As a unit the quarterbacks throw complete 53.4 percent of their attempts. Frank Gore averages just 73.5 yards per game and carries for five touchdowns. At the end of the season the team ranks dead last in yards per game and points per game.

Okay, present day. The J.T. O’Sullivan-led San Francisco 49ers are 2-1 right now, ranked 10th in the NFL in points per game and 11th in overall yards per game. They’ve scored 30-plus points in each of their past two games and have turned the ball over just once in those two games. O’Sullivan himself has a 104.6 quarterback rating, and Frank Gore is averaging 95.7 rushing yards per game and has plunged his way to three rushing scores.

What’s different? Okay, J.T. O’Sullivan is the quarterback, but, let’s be honest here, he’s J.T. O’Sullivan. He’s not the key here. Maybe he’s a key but he isn’t the key. No, the key to the Niners recent success is offensive guru Mike Martz, whose offensive scheme has the team clicking on all cylinders right now. He’s looking brilliant and it’s because the offense is buying what he’s preaching.

Everyone thinks he doesn’t want to run the ball, and that’s not fair. How many teams in NFL history have ever had a top five passing offense and rushing offense? None, okay. That’s why. Give him a talented back and a decent quarterback, and he’ll run it down opponents’ throats. That’s what’s happening now. Gore is looking great. He has three touchdowns and he’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry; that’s keeping defenses honest, and it’s creating passing lanes for O’Sullivan who’s taking advantage.

When has Martz not coached a winner? The Rams had an overall .624 winning percentage in his six seasons with the team; they even won an NFC Championship game. And fair is fair: how good have the Rams been since he left? Oh, 15 wins and 31 losses? That, if I’m doing the math right, is a .326 winning percentage, which means they won almost twice as frequently with Martz.

Interesting.

And you want to know the ultimate reason the Rams started losing games? Lovie Smith. He left after the 2003 season, after being the Rams defensive coordinator for the three previous seasons. Following his departure, the Rams ranked 25th and 31st in the league in points per game allowed; worse than any year since, yup, 2000, the year before Smith arrived. 

So here’s what can said about Mike Martz: he’s the brightest offensive coordinator in the NFL. He’s taking a team right now, the San Francisco 49ers no less, that hasn’t ranked better than 24th in points per game since 2003 and has usually been ranked in the 30s. He’s taking a sixth round draft pick and plugging him into his offense and it’s working. He’s reminding us of how good Frank Gore can be. He’s winning.

I think it’s time we all take a step back and recognize that.

The NFL season is now fast approaching, which means your fantasy football draft is probably right around the corner. To better prepare you for that, I’m releasing my fantasy football pre-draft rankings. Remember, these are to be used as a guide on draft day, so feel free to move players around and stray from the list when draft day actually arrives.

This is part two in a series devoted to running backs. Part one is here.

If you missed it, be sure to check out the series devoted to quarterbacks, too. Part one (1-5). Part two (6-10). Part three (11-15). Part four (16-20).

6. Frank Gore - The San Francisco 49ers might not have a very good offense, but they certainly don’t lack talent at running back. Frank Gore, who rushed for 1,102 yards on 260 carries last season, is projected to improve his numbers this season, with the addition of Mike Martz as the team’s offensive coordinator. Martz should improve the passing game to some degree, thus opening up some opportunities for Gore, especially near the goal line. The Niners’ running back was brilliant in 2006, when he rushed for 1,695 yards on 312 carries, and he should have a season reminiscent of those numbers.

7. Larry Johnson - Larry Johnson might have been disappointing last season, frustrating owners in the weeks leading up to his injury, but nonetheless showed signs of his former self. Johnson was on a path to a breakdown, after having carried the ball 752 times in the two seasons before his injury, so it came as no surprise when his season was cut short after just eight games. But there were games - a few in which he broke 100 yards rushing - when he showed glimpses that make me think this will be a very big season for him. He also played a larger role in the passing game last season and was on pace for more than 60 receptions. Johnson will available in the second half of the first round, perhaps after a quarterback is picked. To me, he’s a solid selection who will bounce back this season with a big year.

8. Ryan Grant - Anyone out there know who Grant was before last season? If so, did you know how good he was? Probably not. Grant, who shocked the fantasy world with a brilliant second half last season has set himself up to be drafted among the best of his peers this year. Here’s the biggest reason why: the post-Brett Favre Packers are going to run the ball more than they did in the past because the offense’s strength is its line, and the Packers don’t want to put too much pressure on the young Aaron Rodgers. Grant carried just 188 times last season and nearly broke 1,000 rushing yards, scoring 8 touchdowns. Imagine if he repeats that kind of success with 275-300 carries this season. He’s a pretty safe pick with excellent upside.

9. Marion Barber - The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best passing games in football last season, which may be why the running game is sometimes overlooked. But don’t make the mistake of overlooking Barber on draft day. The Cowboys running back has split carries his entire career (and might get a few stolen this season by Felix Jones) but has still maintained himself as a top fantasy back because of his scoring. In the past two seasons he’s scored 28 touchdowns, and last season he carried for more than 950 yards on 204 carries. In fact he’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry each of the past two seasons. Expect a big season from Barber, now that his role in the offense has been increased.

10. Marshawn Lynch - Marshawn Lynch was very impressive last season, his first as an NFL starter. In fact, he probably would have won Rookie of the Year, had Adrian Peterson not been so darn good. The most interesting numbers to note: he started just 13 games and gained over 1,300 total yards, scoring 7 touchdowns. And did I mention he did this while playing for the Buffalo Bills? He’ll be even better this season, and if the Bills can find someone not totally incompetent to throw the football, Lynch’s stock will soar even higher.