The Green Bay Packers are 5-5, but the record doesn’t do justice to the team’s talent. It’s hardly a stretch to suggest the Packers could quite easily have three more wins when considering three losses were within three points.

Unfortunately, talent can carry a team just so far. It doesn’t matter that Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback or that Green Bay has one of the league’s most underrated defenses; when it’s all said and done, the record is what counts. Nothing else.

Of course, there is some very good news for cheeseheads reading this. Green Bay might have a 5-5 record, but that’s enough to keep it atop the NFC North. Minnesota and Chicago have the same record, but both teams are shaky at best. It’s heartening to consider that the Packers are 3-1 in division games, the most recent victory being a rout over the Bears. It is also worth noting that Green Bay’s one division loss was a one-point loss at Minnesota, a game that Green Bay would have won if Adrian Peterson wasn’t so darn impressive and Mason Crosby had nailed the game-winning field goal.

Are the Packers good enough to make a run in the postseason, assuming they get that far? Well, it’s a bit complicated.

Green Bay is not without weaknesses, but some have been a bit exaggerated. For example, many pundits are quick to point out that the offense has had trouble running the ball. While this is true to some degree, it’s a flawed argument. Consider Ryan Grant’s last six starts: in each he rushed for at least 75 yards. And in three of Green Bay’s last four games he found his way to the endzone. His yard per carry average this season is also deceptive; he has kept it at a level of 4.3 or higher in his last three starts.

Watching the Packers, I’ve picked up on two more troubling observations. First, Green Bay’s offense moves the ball down the field but sometimes has trouble scoring touchdowns; it seems that Coach Mike McCarthy has no problem settling for field goals. That wouldn’t be a big issue but it has kept the Packers from pulling away and winning several games. The most obvious of these was the loss against Tennessee. Green Bay’s offense had 390 yards but scored just one touchdown. Green Bay was able to move the ball; in fact, all three of the field-goal scoring drives were of at least 51 yards. Not scoring touchdowns allowed Tennessee to hang with Green Bay in a game that could have been won by the Packers.

Second, Green Bay has an outstanding defense. I don’t know anyone who would deny that. But near the end of close games, fans can witness it changing its gameplan to avoid giving up anything too big. This “prevent defense” cost them victories against both Tennessee and Minnesota. In the former, Green Bay couldn’t stop Kerry Collins from driving the Titans straight down the field at the end of the fourth quarter, nor could the Packers stop the run in overtime. Against Minnesota, Adrian Peterson picked the Packers apart in the fourth quarter. Somehow - I’m not certain how this could happen - the Packers appeared to forget Peterson is the Vikings’ best player.

To return to the original question, can the Packers make a run in the postseason? Absolutely, but it will take the right coaching. The defense is loaded with ball hawks in the secondary and has little trouble forcing turnovers. On offense, as pointed out earlier, the Packers running game has been improving in recent weeks, whilst Aaron Rodgers may be considered the best first year starter in the NFL this season in not one of the league’s best starters. Green Bay’s fate this season is heavily dependent on Mike McCarthy. He has been given a great group of athletes - now it is his responsibility to steer them to a championship.

—-

On a side note that is completely unrelated to this post, I’d like to thank everyone who has read this blog. I looked at my profile today and noticed that my blogs have drawn one million views.

Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read my thoughts on the NFL and fantasy football.

Sincerely,
Tom Van Wyhe

The Lowdown

Both NFC North teams are hunting for a win to move closer to the Bears and to distance themselves from one another. Green Bay lost a tough matchup in overtime against Tennessee last week, while the Vikings have scored 69 points in their last two games.

Love ‘em

Aaron Rodgers - GB - QB - If you don’t love Aaron Rodgers at this point, it’s either because you have no soul or because you faced him in one of his better games this season. In any case, there’s no reason to not love him in this matchup: Minnesota’s pass defense ranks 23rd in the NFL this season and last time he faced the Vikings - his first career NFL start - he had a pretty good game: 186 passing yards and 1 touchdown. Rodgers has looked good or very good in just about every start this season, and the Packers will be looking for a big win in order to distance themselves from Minnesota. Expect good things.

Adrian Peterson - MIN - RB - Adrian Peterson is on a tear, rushing for 100+ yards in each of his last three starts. He has five 100-yard games this season and he’s averaging more than 20 carries per game. Really, did I even have to give any reasons for loving this guy?

Bernard Berrian - MIN - WR - He’s been Gus Frerotte’s favorite target and for good reason: he’s the most talented receiver on the roster. He’s also been a favorite of fantasy football players, as he’s caught a touchdown in each of his last four starts and has finished his last six games with more than 75 receiving yards.

Hate ‘em

Gus Frerotte - MIN - QB - If you’re in a league that deducts interceptions, you might want to stay away from Frerotte. Though he’s passed for quite a few yards this season and he threw three touchdowns last week, Green Bay’s defense has plenty of ball-hawks, not to mention that Frerotte has throw an interception in his last three games (including a 4-interception game against Chicago).

Ryan Grant - GB - RB - Watching the Packers offense last week wasn’t a lot of fun if you started Ryan Grant. In fact, this season hasn’t been a lot of fun with him on the roster. He has rushed for at least 80 yards in his last four starts, but that’s party because of the incredible number of carries he’s had: 84 in his last three starts (that’s 28 per game). He’s scored just one touchdown this season and he’s a non-factor in the passing game, plus Minnesota has one of the best run defenses around.

Donald Driver - GB - WR - Okay, I love watching Donald Driver. He can flash one of those smiles and make you forget that, prior to last week, he hadn’t had an 80-yard game this season and had caught just one touchdown pass. Try not to forget, okay?

Summary

Green Bay and Tennessee played a heated defensive game in which only two touchdowns were scored. The Packers defense fell apart at the end of the fourth quarter, however, and lost in overtime, 19-16. The Titans remain the only undefeated team in the NFL, now 8-8, and continue to build a lead in the AFC South, whereas the Packers are now tied with Minnesota in the NFC North with a 4-4 record.

When Green Bay had the Ball

Aaron Rodgers threw an interception and fumbled the ball on back-to-back drives in the third quarter. The fumble put Tennessee at Green Bay’s 17 yard line and resulted in a field goal, but the Titans didn’t capitalize on the interception, punting it back to Green Bay. Rodgers was able to move Green Bay across the 50 yard line on a number of drives and within scoring range, but the Packers, as they have in previous games this season, could not get touchdowns when they needed them.

Rodgers completed 22-of-41 for 314 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. It is his third 300-yard game of the season and his 5th consecutive game with at least one touchdown pass. He has five interceptions this season.

Ryan Grant did not struggle running the ball against Tennessee the entire game - he carried for at least 5 yards on 9 carries - but only 3 of his 20 carries resulted in a first down. He finished with 86 rushing yards.

Donald Driver had a lot of success in the second half as the Titans focused more attention on Greg Jennings. Driver finished with a great game: 7 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown. Four of his receptions moved the ball at least 19 yards and one was a 44 yard catch.

When Tennessee had the Ball

Green Bay was very effective at stopping Tennessee for much of the game and keeping the Titans out of the endzone. But Tennessees moved the ball 118 yards on its two final drives, the last of which resulted in an overtime field goal that ended the game. Quarterback Kerry Collins passed for 68 yards on those two drives.

Collins finished 18-of-37 for 180 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. Six of his completions were to running back Chris Johnson, who led the team in that category and yards, with 72 on the day.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White combined for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 32 carries. Johnson handled the majority, with 24 for 89 yards and was very effective at the end of the game. White, meanwhile, contributed with 8 carries for 77 yards, thanks mostly to a 54 yard carry in the second quarter. That drive resulted in Tennessee’s only touchdown of the game, a 3 yard rush by Johnson.

Rob Bironas was 4-for-5 on field goals, missing a game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter (47 yards) and making the game-winner in overtime (41 yards).

Where the Teams Now Stand

Green Bay is 4-4 and tied with Minnesota for second in the NFC North. Chicago leads the division with a 5-3 record. Green Bay plays at Minnesota next week.

Tennessee is 8-0 and on top of the AFC South. They play at Chicago next week.

The euphoria for Packers fans is over. Time for reality to kick in.

After a 2-0 start to the season, the Packers have stumbled offensively the past two games and now sit at .500. Aaron Rodgers either separated his shoulder or sprained it - depends on your source. The Packers running backs have gained 94 yards the past two weeks, and the team as a whole has turned the ball over five times. The defense now ranks 23rd in points per game allowed.

Not quite what fans had in mind after seeing the Packers first two games. So what’s going wrong?

First, the Packers offense isn’t scoring enough points. Against the Cowboys the offense found itself in or near the red zone three times in the first three quarters, but scored just nine points. Mason Crosby’s longest field goal was a 38-yarder, which means the Packers were on the 21 yard line when they settled for three points. Had Green Bay scored just one touchdown instead of a field goal on those drives it would have been a much different game.

Second, Aaron Rodgers himself is having some trouble. He doesn’t look as comfortable in the pocket because he’s taking a lot of hits. He was sacked just once in the first two games of the season. Compare that to him being taken down a combined eight times against the Cowboys and Buccaneesr. One hit this weekend left him walking off the field to get checked on by the trainers. Rodgers said it felt as if he separated his shoulder, though Mike McCarthy said today that it was a sprain. (He expects Rodgers to be ready for the Falcons game.)

It’s also hurting the offense that Rodgers has trouble throwing into traffic at times. He looked that way against the Cowboys, almost as if he was afraid to make a mistake. Fans are accustomed to Favre throwing into difficult situations regularly and usually that has led to scores. Instead, the Cowboys would drop seven or eight into coverage and make sure no one was open, while Rodgers struggled to make a decision.

Then he went to the other extreme this week against the Bucs. Granted, his first interception was 100 percent the fault of running back Brandon Jackson, who let the ball bounce off his chest and into the hands of Derrick Brooks. But there were two other passes that could have easily been intercepted, both of which were poor passes, and two more that actually were caught by the defense.

Also, the Packers running game has been largely inneffective in the past two weeks. Ryan Grant and Jackson have combined for 94 yards on 32 carries, dipping to just 20 yards on 16 carries against Tampa Bay this past Sunday. That’s just a bit below 3.0 yards per carry on the season.

But here’s the good news. Both losses have been relatively close, which is a good thing for a team that is losing turnover battles by landslides. It means that the defense has been relatively strong, no matter what the numbers say. Turnovers oftentimes mean that there is a tired defense on the field, good field position for the opposing offense, and a shift in momentum. Consider: against the Buccaneers the Packers turned the ball over twice in the second quarter; that resulted in 10 points because the Bucs only had to drive 32 yards and 27 yards. On the same token, the Packers aren’t taking advantage of turnovers enough. Against Tampa Bay, the Packers defense forced three interceptions and a punt in the third quarter while allowing zero points. What did the Packers offense turn that into? One touchdown, two punts, and a fumble. That the Packers have lost the past two weeks by relatively close margins is a good sign.

So what’s to come for the Packers? I think as the season goes on the team will start focusing more attention on running the football to keep defenses from focusing on Rodgers and dropping seven or eight into coverage. Rodgers himself should also grow more comfortable in the offense and with his receivers. He already loves throwing the ball to Greg Jennings (who is arguably the NFL’s most dynamic wide receiver this season), but he should also start spreading the ball around more. The defense is there; Green Bay just needs to start getting that offense jumpstarted again; expect McCarthy to make that a big priority and for the team to respond.

Against the Green Bay Packers tonight, the Dallas Cowboys showed us a lot. It wasn’t all good, but the team did come away with a solid win against another great team they might meet again this winter.

To start, Tony Romo didn’t have a great game. In fact, he was downright streaky during this one. But he kept firing away throughout the ballgame and he never let his mistakes - an interception in the red zone, two intentional groundings - get to him. He doesn’t just put his mistakes behind him during games, he learns from them; definitely a good thing for any player and especially a quarterback.

Perhaps the Packers greatest weakness in this game was the team’s failure to pressure Tony Romo on a consistent basis. Whenever the Packers rushed four, especially on crucial third downs (Green Bay getting beaten for a touchdown on a 3rd-and-20 in the fourth quarter sealed the game), they couldn’t get the pressure they needed to. Romo is like most NFL quarterbacks; give him enough time in the pocket and he’ll beat you. Bad.

But I think it’s fair to say that the Cowboys running backs won the game for them in this one. Felix Jones showed just how fast he is (see: blazing speed) on a 60 yard scamper in the second quarter that put the Cowboys up, 10-6. Marion Barber, meanwhile, carried the ball quite a bit (28 times for 142 yards and a touchdown) and wore down the Packers defense while making sure the Cowboys won the time of possession battle.

Green Bay, unfortunately, didn’t have that kind of luck. Green Bay’s backs carried for 74 yards on the night, while Aaron Rodgers, though he didn’t make any costly mistakes, failed to get the Packers into the endzone until the game was out of reach. The Cowboys could rush four and drop everyone else into coverage and Rodgers wouldn’t be able to find an open target. Dallas’s coverage was just too good.

The Packers also killed their defense late in the game. Too many three-and-outs and other short drives meant that the Packers defense was on the field much too often. The Packers ultimately had just three “big” drives of at least seven plays until late in the game, when things were out of reach. In fact, the team had just two drives that lasted at least two-and-a-half minutes (prior to the final scoring drive). Dallas, on the other hand, had four drives of at least 67 yards.

The Packers also struggled with field position. Only once did they start past their own 29 yard line; three times they started at their own 12 or 13 yard line; their other drives began at their own 19, 21, 24, 26, and 29 yard lines.

There were some highlights for Green Bay, however. Rodgers did look comfortable in the pocket and on one particular play early on, he looked Favre-esque. Greg Jennings is clearly his favorite wide receiver and the two connected 8 times for 115 yards. And on the team’s last scoring drive, the Packers marched down the field with a lot of good pass passes. Jordy Nelson was especially used on the drive, catching four passes as the Cowboys left him relatively open. By any measure that drive was very good: 81 yards on 11 plays in a little under three-and-a-half minutes. And hey, the team got a chance to operate its two minute drive. Plus Rodgers took out 300-pound defensive end Chris Canty with a block on the team’s last drive.

On the same token, not all was sunny for Dallas. Marion Barber, though he had an otherwise excellent game, fumbled twice. Romo also fumbled once and threw a pick early on.

All things considered, this was a good game for the Cowboys to win and a great game for both teams to play. They both now know how they stack up with each other and you can bet the coaches will be poring over this game’s tape to see what went wrong and what went right and how they can improve. One thing is certain: these are two of the best teams in the NFL.

The focus of this past offseason has been on the Packers switching to quarterback Aaron Rodgers after more than a decade-and-a-half of hall of fame play by Brett Favre. But let’s forget about that, the obvious, for a moment and consider that this team doesn’t have a quarterback with an NFL start.

Let me repeat that: the Green Bay Packers, a franchise that has watched Brett Favre start the past 275 games (includes postseason), will enter the 2008 NFL season Monday Night with a roster full of quarterbacks who haven’t started a single NFL game.

Interesting. Incredible. Insane. Three descriptors that could all very well be used to describe the Packers current quarterback situation.

It’s funny, actually. We all watched the Packers offseason unfold, shedding tears when we saw Favre do the same and standing by, intrigued, as we anticipated the beginning of the Rodgers’ era. But after the Favre debacle, most seemed to ignore the emergence of Matt Flynn, a 7th round draft pick who sits second on the depth chart, ahead of second round pick Brian Brohm. And let’s consider: the Packers are the only team in the NFL where the combined experience at the quarterback position is three seasons.

Three quarterbacks. Three seasons of experience. Unbelievable.

So, let’s ignore the obvious question that this article seems to ask and focus on this: did the Packers make the right decision when management opted to not sign a veteran?

When you look around the NFL, it’s obvious that quarterbacks almost invariably improve as they grow in experience. In most scenarios teams add a backup veteran to provide some bits of wisdom to the younger crowd. Heck, if nothing else that veteran can step in to play in the event that an injury sidelines the young starter. But instead, the Packers are gambling the season on the hopes that Rodgers stays healthy and Flynn doesn’t disappoint. That’s risky, to say the very least.

Then again, remember that Rodgers has spent the past three seasons learning the Packers offense and adjusting to the game in practice. He’s become a starting quarterback the old-fashioned way, beginning his career as an apprentice and growing into the role of the team’s leader. So far things look good: he was impressive during preseason, though analysts’ constant criticisms may have affected a casual fan’s view of him.

Again, however, most of the worry comes into play when you look at the team’s depth at quarterback. At number two on the depth chart is seventh round pick Matt Flynn, a quarterback with “intangibles” but apparently not enough talent to satisfy the 31 other teams that passed on him again and again and again and … well, you understand. Meanwhile, Brian Brohm appeared lost during preseason, completing 19-of-42 for 155 yards and one interception.

Matt Flynn has looked good during Green Bay’s exhibition games. Statistically, he’s completed 64.3 percent of his passes for 209 yards and three touchdowns, and his quarterback rating is well over 50 points better than Brohm’s. Perhaps that is because, contrary to the latter, Flynn is playing like someone with nothing to lose. After all, how can a seventh round pick supplant a second round pick on the depth chart in one offseason? Brohm apparently didn’t think it could happen, whereas Flynn seemed to figure, why not?

I guess that’s what the Packers thought when Brett Favre announced his retirement. While the rest of the world seemed to question the logic of the decisions to keep Favre away and enter an NFL season with almost no game-experience on the roster, Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy both simply thought, why not?

Finally!

The melodrama is over. Last night it was confirmed that the Green Bay Packers have parted ways with un-retired quarterback Brett Favre, in exchange for a conditional fourth round draft pick that will adjust itself based on the number of games Favre plays in New York. It will become a third round pick if he plays 50 percent of the team’s plays this season, a second round pick if he plays 70 percent and the Jets make the postseason, and a first round pick if he plays 80 percent and the Jets win the AFC Championship game.

This is the biggest move in Packers history, at least since an early 1990s trade brought Hall of Fame defensive end Reggie White to the city of Green Bay. It’s also a huge move for the New York Jets (think “Randy Moss to New England” huge), and one that deserves to be broken down from all angles.

This is that breakdown.

How the Move Will Affect the Green Bay Packers as a Whole and Aaron Rodgers Specifically

Let’s begin with the Packers because this moves affects them the least, assuming a few things happen. First, I think that a lot pressure has been put on Aaron Rodgers and, whether he admits it or not, his performance this season is going to be heavily scrutinized by fans. Now, this is both good and bad. If Rodgers pulls off a pretty good season (think 3,000 passing yards, 18 TDs, and 14 INTs) he’ll earn the admiration of the fans and most will choose to ignore the Favre debacle that transpired this offseason. However, if the team struggles Rodgers fails, whether due to injury or lack of experience, he will face heavy criticism, along with GM Ted Thompson and Head Coach Mike McCarthy who have stood by his side.

The good news is this: the Packers are a pretty solid football team. Rodgers won’t be relied upon to put up 30 points per game because the defense is good, and he’ll have time in the pocket because he has a great offensive line and Ryan Grant looks very good. Also, he has one of the league’s most underrated receiving corps and one that will prove to be invaluable to him this season. Also, Green Bay’s West Coast-style offense relies on the quarterback to make smart, quick throws. Rodgers is capable of that and his receivers will make it much easier for him.

I think the most crucial thing for Rodgers is staying healthy over the course of the season. I’m sure he’s gone through rigorous conditioning this offseason with the expectation of being the team’s starting quarterback and Brian Brohm is going to be pushing him for the starting role, so there’s competition there.

The bottom line: Aaron Rodgers is walking into the perfect situation, and his composure under pressure will be his greatest asset.

How this Move Will Affect the Rest of the Packers Offense

Green Bay is very solid on offense. The offensive line is the core and it is improving every season, thanks to the bookends at tackle - Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher - remaining the key components.

This bodes well for the running game and Ryan Grant. Grant put up some pretty good numbers last season, despite playing in only half the team’s games. This season he’ll be out to prove that he can do that with or without Favre under center. Personally, I think he can.

Also, the offense is going to revolve around Grant a lot more this season, too. The team doesn’t want to rush Rodgers into his new role as the starter. Plus, a successful running game will open things up for the passing game, making Rodgers duties much less stressful.

The passing game, then, is going to look very similar to last season’s West Coast approach. The Packers are going to throw passes in the 5-10 yard range, expecting the wide receivers to make something happen. In fact, most passes will probably be looked at as successful rushing attempts, based on the number of yards gained. There will be times when the team takes advantage of Rodgers mobility and pushes him outside the pocket and there will be times when the team throws the ball downfield, but Rodgers isn’t Brett Favre, so don’t expect the offense to look exactly the same as it did last season.

How this Move Will Affect the Jets

The Jets were expected to start either Kellen Clemmons - the team’s expected quarterback of the future - or Chad Pennington - the oft-injured interim quarterback. But Favre’s arrival completely turns that upside down.

There is no doubt in my mind (or anyone else’s mind) that Favre will start for the Jets this season. And that means the team as a whole is better because of it.

The running game, led by Thomas Jones, is going to see more touchdowns and perhaps fewer attempts. Jones scored one rushing touchdown last season; expect him to get more red zone touches this season and more scores, thanks to the improved offense. Is he a top 20 running back now? I would certainly draft him ahead of Edgerrin James and perhaps LenDale White, but I’m not sure he’s top 20 material yet.

The passing game, which will be the most affected aspect of this offense, will definitely be interesting to see and the two players who will most benefit are Jericho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles. Both players will near or break previous career highs, especially Cotchery who just might catch 100 passes this season. Favre opens up so many things for this offense, which was once restricted because of lack of experience or talent at quarterback.

Speaking of which, Chad Pennington is going to be released, making Kellen Clemmons the Jets clear backup to Favre. That means a lot of reps during the preseason, as he adjusts to the idea that he’ll be riding the bench throughout the regular season unless Favre does something he hasn’t done since he became a starting quarterback in 1992: miss a game.

Will the Jets make the postseason this season? I won’t be surprised if they do. Favre brings a lot to the table and it will certainly be interesting seeing two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the same division, going head-to-head twice this season. I thin that the Jets now have what it takes to overthrow the Patriots in the division, assuming the defense lives up to its expectations.

How long will Favre be a New York Jet? If things go well this season, he might stick around for one more. If things don’t go well or he becomes seriously injured at any point (think broken bone - but not a finger because he’ll play through that), I think Favre will officially call it a career for the last time immediately after the conclusion of the season. And what a career it will have been.

I must admit, this offseason has been full of drama. But the biggest story of them all is finally resolved. Well, sort of.

The NFL re-instated future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre earlier today, and the Packers are apparently ready to welcome him back with open arms. NFL Network’s Adam Schefter reports that the team will have an open competition at quarterback before the start of the season, meaning fans are forced to wait to learn who the team’s quarterback will be.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy will hold a press conference on Monday at 9:15 ET to discuss the situation, something that ESPN and every newspaper in the country will no doubt scrutinize and analyze to death. But here’s what I want to know: if it really is an open quarterback competition, who will win?

Let’s think about this because it’s not as simple as Favre waltzing into camp to retake the starting duties. Remember, he’s missed an entire offseason; the Packers adjusted the entire offense to better suit Aaron Rodgers, someone who has reportedly looked good this offseason and has handle the hoopla admirably.

So who’s really the favorite?

Ted Thompson doesn’t want Brett Favre to play for the Packers. Heck, he offered him in excess of $20 million to stay retired. It’s not about the money, Brett said. But you’ll get me fired, Thompson apparently complained, pleading with the 38 year old to just call it a career and go home and spend his days fishing while the checks roll in.

“I’m coming back.”

And now he is. Maybe he didn’t use those words exactly, but that was the point he made when he applied for reinstatement. And actions speak a heckuvalot louder than words, especially in this case.

So that left the Packers with no choice. The team couldn’t cut him; he’d go to Minnesota. They couldn’t trade him; he didn’t want to go to move to Florida or New Jersey. That left them with one option: they had to welcome him back.

“Sixteen years after Brett Favre came to the Packers, he is returning for a 17th season,” Murphy said in a statement. “He has had a great career with our organization and although we built this year around the assumption that Brett meant what he said about retiring, Brett is coming back. We will welcome him back and turn this situation to our advantage.”

Brett is coming back, but he’s not being given the starting job, and that makes sense. He should still have to earn it, regardless of how many MVP awards he has in his trophy room. Favre is a great quarterback and, if the competition is fair and McCarthy isn’t stacking it against him, I have to believe that Favre is still the best quarterback on this team. Last season was evidence of that. Plus, his body will probably hold up better than Rodgers over the course of the season. The past two seasons are evidence of that.

Yes, Favre will start this season. The fans will demand it if he doesn’t. In that respect, Mike McCarthy’s hand will be forced.

“We will welcome him back.” Well, sort of.

________________________________________

Fantasy Note: Until Mike McCarthy reveals that he has the starting spot, refrain from drafting Aaron Rodgers. Favre will be a top ten fantasy quarterback if he starts this season. And Ryan Grant? He’s probably better off with Favre back in a Packers uniform. So are the receiving corps.

Bottom line: every player on the Green Bay offense should see their stocks soar, except Rodgers.

Assuming Favre does return, the Packers have two options: start him or send him elsewhere. If the Packers pick option A, they run the risk of alienating heir-apparent Aaron Rodgers. If the team picks option B they run the risk of alienating the fans and sending one of the best quarterbacks in the league to a conference rival. What happens if the Packers meet a Brett Favre-led team in the postseason? What happens if he ends up with a division rival? (This, however, seems unlikely and it’s more probable the team asks him not to join Chicago or Minnesota.)

It’s not impossible to imagine Favre in another uniform - other great quarterbacks (Joe Namath and Joe Montana, to name a couple) have finished their careers wearing foreign jerseys. But Brett Favre represents Green Bay. He lifted this franchise up and put the tiny city in Wisconsin back on the map after two decades of losing. To think of him wearing a Bears uniform is to imagine Peyton Manning wearing a Patriots uniform or John Elway retiring an Oakland Raider. As King wrote in his column, “Playing for any old NFL team would be crime enough to many of his faithful, but playing for a rival like Minnesota or Chicago would be like Johnny Damon spurning the Red Sox for the Yankees. Times five.”

If Favre does return, I expect the Packers will keep him around at the risk of alienating Aaron Rodgers, although one must admit it would be a cruel move, especially after the team drafted Brian Brohm. Green Bay doesn’t want Favre to return, but the franchise can’t risk letting him leave. What if he ends up in Minnesota? Or Chicago?

The honest truth, when you look at it from all angles, is  that Favre is being unreasonable in this instance. I love Number Four as much as any fan, but he’s not being fair to the Pckers. He’s forcing a team that has already moved on to either tell Rodgers he’s going to be spending a fourth season on the bench (and thus creating a grudge Rodgers will remember when his contract is up in 2009) or muck up his legacy with the Packers and the Packer-faithful by releasing him to an open market.

Favre retired after one of the best seasons of his career, and he retired after leading the Packers to the NFC Title game. The last thing anyone wants is for him to retire after leading the Vikings to a division title and a sweep of the Rodgers-led Packers or, worse, the Packers sacrificing their future to appease the Hall of Fame quarterback and keep him around.

Stay retired, Brett. Do it for the franchise. Or, at the very least, do it for the fans. 

This much we know about Grant: he has potential. He rushed for 88+ yards in seven of nine games between weeks 8-17, and he broke 100 yards in five of those games. He also scored in seven of the final eight games he played down the stretch, finishing with 8 rushing touchdowns. And his rushing average? A better-than-respectable 5.1 yards per carry. Better yet, his average dipped below 4.0 in just one of the seven games he started. In four of his starts, however, it jumped to 5.4+ per carry.

All things considered, Grant was fantastic last year in what was essentially his rookie season. And the best news is this: he’s going to play a bigger role in Green Bay’s offense this year. He has the potential to break 1,400 yards if gets enough carries, but it’s safer to project for 1,250 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 45 passes for 200 yards. Draft him late in the first round and enjoy the season.