Overview
Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans are struggling to get their third win of the season, having neither won or lost consecutive games this season. Their 12th ranked scoring offense has been just good enough to get the team two wins, and in their only wins of the season Houston scored at least 29 points. Already the Texans are three games out of first place in the AFC South while ranking 10th in the AFC standings.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is tops in the AFC North with wins over Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Baltimore the past three weeks. The Bengals are on a hot four game win streak but haven’t won any games by more than seven points. Their margin of victory the past three weeks has been three points.
Injuries
Houston: No major relevant injuries, though DE Mario Williams (shoulder) has been limited in practice this week.
Cincinnati: Carson Palmer (sprained left thumb) is probable.
When Houston has the Ball
When the Texans have won this season their offense has been responsible. In their three lowest scoring games, in which they scored 7, 21, and 24 points, Houston is 0-3.
Their offense is powered by Matt Schaub and the passing game. Steve Slaton and the running backs have been largely unsuccessful this season and rank 30th in rushing yards. No running back is averaging at least 4.0 yards per carry; Slaton and Chris Brown, the two primary backs, are averaging a combined 3.1 yards per carry, and both have just one rushing touchdown this season.
Fortunate for fantasy players that drafted Slaton high, Houston’s leading back is making a significant contribution in the passing game. He is the third leading receiver on the team with 17 receptions for 180 yards and one touchdown. He’s netted 411 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns this season, and in the past three weeks he’s racked up 300 yards and one score. Those are unexpected numbers for a projected first round back, but things could be worse.
Where the team has not struggled for the most part is when passing the ball, especially when Andre Johnson is involved. The Texans are ranked 5th in passing yards this season, and Matt Schaub’s 10 passing touchdowns are enough to tie him for second in the NFL. Johnson is the team’s clear leading receiver with 28 receptions for 437 yards and four touchdowns this season. Most of those numbers have come in the past four weeks, during which he has accumulated 402 yards and all four scores.
The other key contributor to the passing game, tight end Owen Daniels, isn’t far behind Johnson in receptions. In fact, among fantasy tight ends, Daniels is sixth in receptions and fourth in yards. Unfortunately, he has has just one receiving touchdown this season and is tied for 20th in that category. As things go, he’s a lower-end TE1 in many leagues but especially PPR leagues.
Considering Cincinnati’s defense this season, which ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed, Houston should be able to play to its strengths. Cincinnati even allowed an otherwise hapless Derek Anderson to pass for 269 yards and one touchdown two weeks ago. Considering Houston’s passing game, I would expect the Texans to find only mild resistance this week when traveling to Cincinnati.
When Cincinnati has the Ball
One of the biggest surprises this season has been Cedric Benson. Though he was expected to handle a lot of carries this season, few, including myself, expected him to excel to the degree he has thus far. Benson is currently second in the NFL in yards per game and first among backs with at least 50 carries. Furthermore, only a handful of backs (six in all) have more rushing touchdowns than Benson, who has plowed his way in three times.
Well worth noting about Benson is his yards per carry average, which hasn’t dipped below 4.0 since week one, and his relative consistency: he hasn’t been held to under 74 yards this season and he’s scored a touchdown in three games.
When Benson isn’t carrying the ball, the Bengals’ passing game has been erratic at best. Carson Palmer has passed for 1,116 yards, seven touchdowns, and six interceptions this season. The last of those is most important to players in leagues which penalize for interceptions, especially considering he has thrown one or two in four games this season.
Fortunately, in the past three weeks he’s thrown just two picks and four touchdowns, and in the past two weeks Palmer has passed for at least 230 yards. The two weeks prior to that (weeks 2 and 3), Palmer finished with 183 and 185 yards.
The primary beneficiaries in the passing game have been Chad Ochocinco and Andre Caldwell. Aside from those two, no Cincinnati receiver has put up fantasy relevant numbers. Ochocinco has 24 receptions for 352 yards and three touchdowns, putting up solid numbers on a regular basis this season. Caldwell, unfortuantely, has been far from consistent. He’s caught just two passes in three games and six passes in each of the other two; and in the past four weeks his (non-PPR) fantasy points have rollercoastered from 2 to 11 to 3 to 9.
It’s important to note this week that Houston’s defense has allowed at least 24 points in four games this season; the only team they’ve held below that mark, Oakland, averages 9.8 points per game. And on the road this season they’ve allowed 28 and 31 points. Expect Cincinnati to put up one of its biggest scoreboards of the season this week.
The Advantage
Cincinnati, but it may need to score a lot of points to keep up with Houston’s high-powered passing game. The Bengals have struggled throughout the season to stop quarterbacks, and Schaub is one of the best they’ve face. Expect a one score victory for Cincy at home.
Fantasy Booms and Busts
Boom! Cedric Benson is going up against the 26th ranked rushing defense in the NFL. Considering he’s averaging a bit more than 22 carries per game, and keeping in mind that Cincinnati will want to keep the ball out of Schaub’s hands as much as possible, expect another big effort from Benson.
Bust! This probably isn’t the week Steve Slaton busts out of his funk. He’ll probably put up decent numbers — 60 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards — but unless he scores a touchdown, which he’s done just once this season, his final numbers will disappoint again.