• Theory:

You’ve all heard the old saying, “Once a running back turns 30, his production goes downhill.”  That statement has been debated among fantasy (and reality) stat-geeks for years.  But what I have always wondered was, “Is there a so called ‘magic age’ when a wide receiver’s production starts to dip.  It surely can’t be 30 because the GOAT Jerry Rice put up better numbers in his thirties than his twenties.  But it wasn’t just Rice who had success late in his career as guys like Charlie Joiner, Mushin Muhammad, and Steve Largent were first team All-Pros while in their thirties.  But I figured there must be some age where the legs get a little slower or the vertical drops a couple of inches.  There’s got to be some age where there is a noticeable difference in a receiver’s abilities.  To help me find this ‘magical age’, I decided to conduct a study using the top receivers in NFL history.

• Research:

My original sample size consisted of every wide receiver who had reached 10,000 receiving yards in their career.  Then I rationalized that this magic age is somewhere in the mid-thirties so I removed all players who retired before playing a season at the age of 36 or who were still active and had not yet reached their 36th birthday (Owens, Moss, Holt, Muhammad, Mason).  That left me with 14 players who met the above requirements.  The 14 players do not include Rice as he only played in two games when he was 35 due to a knee injury so his production would have distorted the results.  Likewise, Marvin Harrison only played five games when he was 35 and Harold Jackson played one game at 36 so they also were not included.

• Results:

What I found was surprising, not because of what the age is, but rather how steep a drop-off there is at the age.  I added up the 14 players’ receiving yards and separated them into three sets: production at ages 34, 35, and 36.  If a player had a birthday during the regular season then that entire season was calculated for the age in which he turned.  For example, Cris Carter turned 36 on November 25, 2001, so the 2001 season is counted as his season at age 36.
For the 14 players, the average receiving yards they had at age 34 was 998, at age 35 was 933, and at age 36 was 665.
That amounts to a 6.5% decline in production from 34 to 35, or 65 yards.  From 35 to 36, there was a 28.7% drop in production, or 268 yards.  You’re probably thinking, “I bet those players played in more games when they were 34 than at 35 and more at 35 than at 36.”  I thought that too after I did all the calculations.  Then I went back and added up the number of games played at each age.  The number actually increased at each age: 204 played at 34, 208 played at 35, and 216 played at 36.

• Conclusion:

The numbers don’t lie-receivers go downhill in a hurry whenever they turn 36.  There were eight 1000-yard seasons at age 35 from those 14 players.  There were only three 1000-yard seasons at age 36, but not from just the 14, but from every receiver in NFL history.  That’s right-only Jerry Rice, Joey Galloway, and Jimmy Smith have had 1000 yard seasons at the age of 36.  Those three, especially Rice, were outliers for the wide receiver position just as Curtis Martin and John Riggins were outliers for 30+ year old running backs.

So what does this mean for your fantasy team?  It means you would be better served to stay away from guys like Muhammad (36), Bobby Engram (36), Isaac Bruce (37), and even Terrell Owens who turns 36 in December.  Owens’ decline started last year when his yards dropped by over 300 from the year before.  I don’t think there will be a decline that steep this season but I do think there will be a decline nonetheless.  There are numerous factors already working against him.  First he’s playing with a QB who’s not a Hall-of-Famer like Steve Young or has not been to 11 Pro Bowls like Garcia, McNabb, and Romo have been too combined.  Next, he’s not the clear-cut #1 receiver on his team for the first time since he was in San Francisco.  Finally, he has that nagging toe injury which could linger throughout the season.  If that toe isn’t completely healthy, then he’ll have trouble cutting on it and creating separation from cornerbacks.

Who knows if TO is the next outlier?  I don’t and I never would have guessed that Jimmy Smith would have been one.  The draft is your call; you can pick whomever you want.  Owens, or any of the other 36+ crowd, could be the next Jerry Rice and be a 1000 yard receiver at age 40.  Or, they could lose the battle with Father Time and make you wish that you could re-draft.  Those are decisions that every fantasy owner, including myself, are faced with.  Just before you think that we’ve got it bad; imagine being a GM and dealing with these decisions in real life….makes me kind of thankful that it’s only fantasy.

This is the final excerpt of the four-part series on scheme changes affecting fantasy performance.  This blog focuses on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers.  Please remember to also view Part 1 ,Part 2, and Part 3.

Tampa Bay [HC: Morris (Buccaneers), OC: Jagodzinski (Boston College)]

After two years in college, new OC Jeff Jagodzinski returns to the NFL and brings with him two separate schemes-one for the running game and one for the passing game.  While at BC, he learned the West Coast offense from former coach Tom O’Brien and when he was O-Line for the Falcons from 2004-2005, he learned the zone-blocking scheme from guru Alex Gibbs.  The Bucs QB best suited to run the WCO is Luke McCown as Byron Leftwich’s windup is too slow for the quick passing game and rookie Josh Freeman will need a lot of time to absorb the playbook.  However, Leftwich has started the first two preseason games and it looks as if he’s seized control of the starting position.  Regardless, his handle on the starting job may not be permanent and that makes him at best a bye-week replacement.  Freeman should get a shot later in the season and could possibly warrant a roster spot on a team in a keeper league.

New addition Derrick Ward should work well with this offensive scheme as he can quickly find the open hole and accelerate through it.  But don’t expect him to put up the 5.6 ypc average he had with the Giants in 2008.  Reasons why are explained in this article, but in short, Ward runs better on turf, in cold weather, and while coming off the bench-none of which he will experience in Tampa.  Another 1000-yard season is likely albeit with far more carries.  Ward will also be a factor in the passing game which will increase his value.  But don’t make the mistake of reaching for him in the second or third round as Earnest Graham will see many carries and will likely be the goal line back, thus stealing some touchdowns away.

The in-flux QB position will have an effect on the Tampa receivers.  Antonio Bryant came back to the NFL last season with a bang but his recent knee surgery will keep him inactive until early September.  At the end of the 2008 season, I saw him as a low-end WR2 but with this injury and the shaky QB play, his value now becomes a serviceable WR3.  As mediocre as Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese were last year, I don’t see whoever the Bucs QB is this year replicating the 3700 yards those two put up last year.  Unless your scoring system gets you points for de-cleatings by a receiver, stay far away from Michael Clayton.  Kellen Winslow is the ultimate wildcard.  The risk/reward is obvious so I’ll let you make your own judgments on if you think he can stay healthy.  But what I can tell you is that if Winslow does stay healthy, he is in the perfect system to maximize his talents.  With a dearth of competent receivers and with a passing game that highly values intermediate routes, Winslow could have one of the greatest TE seasons ever.  But that’s only possible if he can stay healthy.  Personally, I would take a chance on him after drafting the rest of my starters as he should be available in the 6th round.  But each fantasy owner is different so it’s up to you to decide if you want to take that chance.

San Francisco [HC: Singletary (49ers), OC: Raye (Jets)]

Former NY Jets running backs coach Jimmy Raye II becomes the 49ers’ seventh offensive coordinator in seven years-never a good sign for any team.  It’s also not a good sign when the #1 overall pick who’s only 25 years old can’t beat out an undrafted free agent at QB but that’s the case with Shaun Hill being the projected starter over Alex Smith.  Hill played surprisingly well last year when he became the starter once Mike Singletary became head coach.  When projected over 16 games, his numbers would have looked like this: 3637 yds., 23 TD, and 14 INT which would have been good enough for the top 12 among quarterbacks.  But don’t count on that production this season as Jimmy Raye favors a run-oriented, clock-dominated game.  That’s where the fantasy star of the 49ers, Frank Gore, will make his mark.  Raye was part of the reason why Thomas Jones was so successful last year and he will attempt to have Gore return to the dominance he displayed back in 2006.  He should easily eclipse the 1036 yards he put up in 2008 and should reach double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.  But there is a drawback to Raye becoming OC.  He usually prefers a backup running back to be in on obvious passing situations so Gore should see a drop in his receiving numbers.  Nonetheless, he remains a top-10 RB and must-start in all formats.

TE Vernon Davis has all the physical tools to be a fantasy star.  But this game isn’t all physical and he’s only worth drafting if you’re in desperate need for a backup TE.  When Michael Crabtree signs (September?) he will need a couple of weeks to digest the playbook.  He won’t be relevant fantasy-wise until the last half of the season so if you have an open spot on your bench, draft/buy low, stash him there, and reap the benefits in November and December.  Isaac Bruce will turn 37 in November but with him you know what you’re getting-a modest number of receptions and yards and a handful of touchdowns.  He’s worth a late round pick, especially in PPR leagues, and is someone you can plug in if there’s an injury to one of your starters.  The #3 receiver in SF is worth watching too and not just because he will start until Crabtree gets acclimated.  Josh Morgan made some spectacular catches last season in limited playing time and posted an impressive 16.0 average on his 20 receptions.  According to the Associated Press, Morgan has been the star among receivers at training camp and will look to transfer that success into the regular season.  He is a sleeper who could be starting for Crabtree the first half of the season and then replacing Bruce as starter over the last half of the season.

The two other teams that changed head coaches, Indianapolis and the NY Jets, retained their offensive coordinator and will run the same schemes they ran last year.  The one team that changed its offensive coordinator who was not profiled in this blog is the New Orleans Saints.  They replaced Doug Marrone with their quarterbacks coach, Pete Carmichael, Jr.  But it’s common knowledge that HC Sean Payton calls the plays in New Orleans so Carmichael’s position, much like Marrone’s former one, is simply a change in title and his promotion has little, if any, impact on the Saints’ offensive scheme.

 This is the second part of a four-part series that details how knowing an offensive scheme can go a long way in predicting player performance.  You can view the first part by clicking here.

Detroit Lions [HC: Schwartz (Titans), OC: Linehan (Rams)]

After leading the hapless Rams to a record of 11-25 over the past 3 seasons, Scott Linehan will return to what brought him the most success-being an offensive coordinator.  He even has the QB who brought him much of that success as OC in Minnesota, Daunte Culpepper.  But this isn’t the Daunte of old, just an old Daunte, and he will likely give way to Matt Stafford at some point during the season.  Neither one will have much fantasy impact this season, but if in a keeper league, you definitely want to keep an eye on Stafford in later rounds.  As everyone knows, the star of the offense is Calvin Johnson.  But as much as I like Megatron, I don’t see his numbers making a dramatic jump over last year’s.  It has nothing to do with talent, but more so with game situations.  The Lions were down in the 4th quarter of every game, so they had to throw the ball to try to catch up.  Detroit is not going to go 0-16 again, so that means more 4th quarter leads and more running the ball to consume time.  I do believe Johnson will increase his 78 receptions because of better QB accuracy but his other numbers (1338 yds. 12 TD) will remain about the same.

The beneficiary of the increased emphasis on the ground game is Kevin Smith, who had the sixth most rushing yards during the last 8 weeks of the season.  As the full-time starter, Smith will inherit the Steven-Jackson role in Linehan’s scheme as a dual-threat back.  I think 1500 total yards is possible and because of the Lions record last year, he will be overlooked in many drafts.  He’s not a top-10 running back, yet, but I do like him as a RB2 and as the talent around him increases, he will become a fantasy star.  The scouting report on rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew is that he’s a great in-line blocker, with good hands, but cannot separate from defenders.  Well if he couldn’t separate in college, then there’s no way he will be able to do it in the NFL.  I view him as a “move-the-chains” tight end who will get his fair share of receptions but won’t accumulate many yards.  His best comparison to an NFL TE would be Jacksonville’s Mercedes Lewis who’s also known more for his blocking than receiving.  If in a PPR league, then he may have value but otherwise he should only be used as a bye-week replacement.

St. Louis Rams [HC: Spagnuolo (Giants), OC: Shurmur (Eagles)]

Little is known about former Eagles QB coach Pat Shurmur.  Under Andy Reid the Eagles ran a version of the west coast offense (WCO), so it was anticipated that Shurmur would implement it into the Rams offense as well.  Now that training camp is underway, it has been confirmed by the Associated Press that the Rams will use the WCO in 2009.  That is great news for QB Mark Bulger as the WCO is designed for the QB to get the ball out quickly with 3 and 5-step drop backs.  I’m sure Bulger is ecstatic about this since he has been sacked 191 times since 2004, just one fewer than Ben Roethlisberger’s league-leading 192.  But Bulger has also played in 7 fewer games than Roethlisberger during that period.  Bulger doesn’t have the receivers he had when he was a Pro Bowler, but you can expect an increase in numbers across the board.  He’s a guy who will be overlooked because of his team’s lack of success but he still has now tools, and now has the scheme, to once again return to fantasy relevancy.

Steven Jackson only played 12 games last year and only had a FB for 7 of those, but he still managed 1000 yards rushing.  As the above graph shows, Jackson has averaged the third most yards from scrimmage per game over the last two seasons.  That shows you the ability that he has and he remains a top-5 pick.  What the WCO means for him is more receiving opportunities which further boost his status.  He has everything you want from a #1 back and if you could guarantee me that he would play a full 16, then I would have no problem taking him at #1.  TE Randy McMichael used to be a fantasy stud with Miami, but has been relegated to more pass protection with the Rams.  If you’re one of those people who drafts your starting tight end after drafting your backup RBs and WRs, then McMichael would be a good pick up.  The only other draft-worthy player on the Rams offense is Donnie Avery.  He’s a far different receiver than Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce as those two would run crisp routes as the QB would lob the ball and then they would just run under it.  Avery is a YAC guy-he could take an 8 yard slant route into an 80 yard touchdown.  With the WCO, Avery should play in the slot more which will increase his chances for a long catch-and-run.  I had high hopes for Avery until his injury.  I would only draft him if your league allows lots of bench players.  Otherwise just pick him up in free agency once you hear that he’s practicing again with the team.

We went over the Top-25 Quarterbacks and the Top-50 Running backs, so what do you say we check out the wide receivers?

1. Larry Fitzgerald: If you need a reason why, you don’t watch much football, and probably shouldn’t waste your time and money in fantasy.

2. Andre Johnson: The second-best receiver in the game, but arguably the most explosive, he led the league with 115 receptions and 1,575 receiving yards last season.

3. Calvin Johnson: Think of what he could do if he played for a competent franchise.

4. Randy Moss: Will still be a monster, but don’t expect a repeat of his 2007 numbers.

5. Reggie Wayne: Wayne has been the No. 1 receiver in Indy the past couple years, and that continues in 2009.

6. Steve Smith: Jake Delhomme’s utter mediocrity hampers what he can really do, but he’s as consistent a big-play threat as there is in the league.

7. Greg Jennings: Aaron Rodgers’ favorite toy, and a down-field threat every snap.

8. Brandon Marshall: The Broncos did him no favors by getting rid of Jay Cutler and replacing him with Kyle Orton, but in new head coach Josh McDaniels’ system, he’ll be the go-to guy.

9. Marques Colston: Just one of numerous threats in the Saints’ offense, Colston is a terror to cover due to his size and strength.

10. Anquan Boldin: The single toughest wideout to try and tackle, and one of the few in the league who will run over defenders instead of go around them.

11. Roddy White: After a marginal start to his career, he busted out, and should continue to ascend as Matt Ryan gets even better.

12. Roy Williams: One of the most controversial players in fantasy, people either love him or hate him. Yet he’s easily the best target at wideout for Tony Romo, and he should get plenty of opportunities.

13. Vincent Jackson: Fantasy owners had been waiting for him to break out with a big season, and he finally did in 2008, as the graph displaying the top wideouts in terms of fantasy points shows.

14. Terrell Owens: Aging, but will instantly make the Bills offense a threat to score every time they line up.

15. Braylon Edwards: Stone hands killed him last season, and he was late to training camp this year before failing a physical. Lots of red flags, but still capable of big things.

16. Dwayne Bowe: Matt Cassel will depend heavily on him in his first season under center in K.C.

17. T.J. Houshmandzadeh: Solidifies a Seattle receiving corps that was ravaged by injuries a season ago.

18. Antonio Bryant: Can he repeat what he did last season with an unsettled quarterback situation? Unlikely.

19. Wes Welker: A dream if you have him in a PPR league.

20. Chad Ochocinco: Will bounce back with Carson Palmer back under
center.

21. Santana Moss: Inconsistent, but remains a dynamic threat.

22. Jerricho Cotchery: Because who else is there?

23. Santonio Holmes: The Super Bowl hero is an excellent candidate to have a breakout season.

24. Lee Evans: Should only benefit from having T.O. around.

25. DeSean Jackson: Explosive, but his game still needs a bit of refining.

26. Bernard Berrian: Berrian needs Sage Rosenfels to win the starting quarterback job. His numbers dropped off last season when Tarvaris Jackson was under center.

27. Anthony Gonzalez: Another big-time candidate to do break out, Gonzalez takes Marvin Harrison’s place in the starting lineup for Indy.

28. Hines Ward: Still going, he may cede some catches to Holmes this season, but he’ll still get his.

29. Donnie Avery: The Rams’ No. 1 wideout and first receiver chosen in the 2008 draft had an excellent rookie campaign and promises to get better.

30. Torry Holt: Underrated his whole career, he’s also being underrated this fantasy season. He’s got something left in that tank.

Best of the Rest

31. Lance Moore
32. Devin Hester
33. Donald Driver
34. Kevin Curtis
35. Laveranues Coles
36. Eddie Royal
37. Ted Ginn Jr.
38. Kevin Walter
39. Steve Breaston
40. Justin Gage
41. Patrick Crayton
42. Michael Crabtree
43. Domenik Hixon
44. Mark Clayton
45. Deion Branch
46. Michael Jenkins
47. Sidney Rice
48. Isaac Bruce
49. Bobby Engram
50. Muhsin Muhammad

With the NFL Draft now complete, analysts across the country will now put on their teacher’s hats and hand out grades to each team. We’re going to go a different way and take a look at some of the fantasy implications of the draft, along with some other thoughts. So, in the immortal words of the Joker, here … we … go:

 - Chris “Beanie” Wells: Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals with the second-to-last pick in the first round, Wells immediately becomes a RB2 for fantasy owners. Edgerrin James seems destined to get cut, and Tim Hightower did little to establish himself as anything more than a decent backup, despite his touchdown vulturing.

- Michael Crabtree: There really isn’t any reason that Crabtree shouldn’t be starting opposite Isaac Bruce in Week 1 for San Francisco. His diva attitude apparently turned a number of teams off prior to the draft, leading to him slipping to the  10th overall pick, but it worked out well for the 49ers and fantasy owners alike. Call him a legit WR3 to start the year, with the potential to do even more.

- Knowshon Moreno: We’re not entirely sure where Moreno fits with the Broncos in terms of playing time, not because of lack of talent, but because Denver has 11 running backs on it’s roster. That number will certainly come down before the season starts, but Moreno will still be sharing time with a number of veterans, and even if he does get his share of the carries,  it’s difficult to envision him as anything more than later-round depth for fantasy owners.

- Donald Brown: This was an interesting selection by the Colts, who certainly had other needs than a backup to Joseph Addai. Still, Addai was a killer for fantasy owners last season, as he had just four games that he averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry (not counting his one carry, four-yard performance in Week 17), and one contest where he gained 100 yards. All this for a guy who was undoubtedly a first-round selection in fantasy drafts. Due to that performance, Brown becomes an essential handcuff, but likely one you’ll have to select a bit earlier than you may truly want to.

- James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga: This is for the IDP owners out there. As the first two middle linebackers taken, Laurinaitis by the St. Louis Rams and Maualuga by the Cincinnati Bengals, each should become immediate starters. We think Laurinaitis could have the better overall value because he has the ability to play all three downs, whereas Maualuga is likely only a two-down ‘backer. But both will have value to IDP owners.

DRAFTS WE DIDN’T LIKE

Oakland Raiders - We’re as confused  as everyone else as to what the hell the Raiders are doing. The knock isn’t on the players they chose. It’s possible Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell become perennial All-Pros and Hall of Fame players. We guess. The issue is that they could have had each of these players later down the line. Especially Mitchell. If they felt that strongly about him, all accounts are they still could have gotten him in the fourth round - and though it would have still been called a reach, it would have been far less egregious.

Detroit Lions - I’ve been on record saying that I have little faith in Matthew Stafford, and greatly prefer Mark Sanchez. In time, we’ll see who develops into the better signal-caller. I dont’ quite understand the selection of tight end Brandon Pettigrew when the team  had such bigger needs elsewhere. They would have been wise to try and trade back and take one of the aforementioned middle linebackers in Laurinaitis or Maualuga.

DRAFTS WE LIKED

- Philadelphia Eagles: Getting Jeremy Maclin to line up alongside DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis gives the Eagles arguably the fastest trio of wideouts in the NFL. Taking running back LeSean McCoy - an underrated back in our estimation - to backup and eventually fill the shoes of Brian Westbrook was a great move, as were the fifth-round selections of tight end Cornelius Ingram and defensive back Victor “Macho” Harris.

- Chicago Bears:  Jarron Gilbert will only help fortify the Bears’ defensive line, as he is a great athlete for a defensive tackle who can get to the quarterback. Receiver Juaquin Iglesias brings a much-needed refined route runner to Chicago, and he was a player who very easily could have gone in the early portions of the second round. However, one of the steals of the draft came in the team’s selection of cornerback D.J. Moore from Vanderbilt. Only his relative lack of speed and height, at five-foot-nine, hurt him. He played offense, defense, and special teams at Vandy, and all he did was produce, with 13 interceptions in three seasons.