When you take a look at Matt Cassel’s 2008 stats and you factor in the appointment of Charlie Weis as Chiefs’ OC, you realize that Kansas City is faced with a paradox: Charlie Weis loves to employ the spread offense which frequently has at least 3, but often 4 or 5 receivers on the field at a time. But Cassel struggles in multiple receiver sets where it’s tougher to read defenses and throw the ball downfield. (With the stats below, receivers are counted as anyone who lines up out wide or in the slot; thus, running backs and tight ends flexed out are counted as receivers).

So what should the Chiefs do? Forcing Cassel into the spread could be like fitting a square peg into a round hole. I thought about the Chiefs possibly utilizing Cassel more in the shotgun which would give him a little more time to avoid the rush and a better look at the defensive alignment. However, that idea was put to rest once I saw these stats:

Cassel’s metrics show him as an average passer when in the traditional offensive formation: under center and with only 2 wide receivers. However, when forced to perform in the Todd Haley-friendly (and soon to be Weis-friendly) shotgun-spread formations, Cassel enters JaMarcus Russell-territory. No one expected Cassel to do as well in Kansas City as he did in New England but not even his biggest critics expected his passer rating to drop 20 points. Perhaps he and Weis can come up with some sort of a compromise as to what kind of offense they are both comfortable running and Cassel can show why he was worth $63 million. Or perhaps it was just the “Patriots system” that made Cassel in 2007 and in 2008 he showed why he was a 7th round pick.

However, I’m not ready to label the Cassel trade a disaster for KC just yet as he needs more than one season to prove his worth.  With the way that Jamaal Charles finished his 2009 season look for the Chiefs to feature him prominently in 2010 which could actually help Cassel’s numbers just as Chris Johnson did for Vince Young.  Expect shorter passes to boost Cassel’s completion percentage but that will inversely affect his yards per attempt.  As for his QB rating, Cassel’s such a high-volume passer that his rating has no choice but to go up.  His 69.9 season passer rating was the lowest in six years for a QB who had at least 490 pass attempts.  Weis loves for his QB to spread the ball around a la the pre-Welker/pre-Moss Patriots who didn’t have a 1000-yard receiver from 2002-2006.  While that may ultimately hurt Dwayne Bowe’s numbers, it should boost Cassel’s back into fantasy relevance.  He may never live up to his $63 million contract, but at least for 2010 he is a high-end QB2 who could see a spot-start during bye weeks.

• Visanthe Shiancoe scored another touchdown against the Giants to finish with 11 receiving TDs for the year.  That equals the amount he had over the previous 6 seasons combined.  Another little-known fact about Shiancoe is that he is just one of 4 offensive players who have played in all 112 regular season games since 2003.  The others are Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, and Reggie Wayne.

• Against the Bills, Dallas Clark had 7 receptions and Reggie Wayne had 5 receptions to give each one of those players exactly 100 receptions for the season.  It is only the fourth time in NFL history that a team has had two players get at least 100 receptions in the same season.

• Fred Jackson’s 212 rushing yards against the Colts was tied for the fourth highest single game rushing total for a player who also did not score a rushing touchdown.  The record is held by Barry Sanders who rushed for 237 yards without a rushing TD in a game in 1994.

• Jerome Harrison set an NFL record by having 106 rushing attempts over a three-game stretch.  That total breaks the mark formerly held by Earl Campbell who had 103 rushing attempts in a three-game stretch in 1981.

• Steven Jackson finishes the season with 1738 yards from scrimmage but only 4 TDs.  Barry Sanders is the only other player in NFL history to have at least 1700 total yards in a season while finishing with 4 or fewer touchdowns.  Sanders had 1780 yards from scrimmage in 1998 but just 4 scores.

• Rashard Mendenhall had 94 rushing yards and Willie Parker had 91 rushing yards against the Dolphins.  It was the first time in 21 years that two Steelers’ running backs had at least 90 rushing yards in the same game.  Merril Hoge and Rodney Carter last did it on October 23, 1988.

• By throwing for 4 TDs and 0 INTs against the Giants, Brett Favre became the first QB in NFL history to finish a season with 30 or more TD passes but 7 or fewer INTs.  Favre finished with 33 TDs and 7 INTs for the season.

• *Gem of the Week* By rushing for 259 yards and ending the Broncos’ hopes for a playoff berth, Jamaal Charles reached 1000 rushing yards despite starting just half the season.  In fact, Charles reached 1120 rushing yards and becomes the first player in NFL history to rush for at least 1100 yards in a season despite getting fewer than 200 carries (Charles had 190).

• Matt Leinart attempted 77 passes this season and none of them went for touchdowns.  He becomes the third QB since 2000 to attempt at least 75 passes in a season without one of them going for a score.  The others were Ken Dorsey (91 attempts in 2008) and Kerry Collins (82 attempts in 2007).

• Carson Palmer’s 1.7 QB rating against the Jets was the lowest in 11 years for a QB who attempted at least 11 passes in a game.  Ryan Leaf somehow managed a QB rating of 0 in a 1998 game by going 1 for 15 for 4 yards and 2 INTs.

Here’s a few thoughts on a few more teams from the Saturday games.

ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons offense looked very good with a nice balance of rush and pass. The Chargers we’re not able to stop them driving down the field.  Matt Ryan looked good, ready for the season already. Calm, cool, and collected.  Michael Turner looked very good, with good holes to run through. Norwood got creamed while making a catch. Tony Gonzalez looked good and had a few receptions. Roddy White looked good with a couple long receptions. Michael Jenkins looked ok, not a lot of touches.  Atlanta defense looked good, but not great against the Chargers. Atlanta is effective on all out blitzes, sacking Rivers several times.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers offense was not fully complete, with many of the starters sitting this game out. LT did not play. Antonio Gates did not play.  Philip Rivers looked good with accurate throws and some long bombs. O-line is giving him good time to throw.  Darren Sproles looked great as usual…running with speed and power. He found plenty of running room and holes to run through. It’s amazing how he makes yards after catch/contact.  Chargers screen passes are deadly. Vincent Jackson looked good with several long catches and a spectacular one handed catch.  Malcolm Floyd had a nice long catch, but aggravated his sore ribs.  Chargers defense looked good, but not great. Could not consistently stop the Falcons running game.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs got off to a rough start. The o-line is not doing a good job of pass protection. They are still shuffling o-linemen. The lack of time in passing situations resulted in a sack of Matt Cassel where he got his left knee twisted and he hobbled off the field and did not return. Tyler Thigpen stepped in to replace Cassel.  Tyler Thigpen is just not very good.  Larry Johnson is looking good, but not sure the o-line is going to give him enough running room to do well inside. He had to bounce outside (not his strength) to find any room to run.  Jamaal Charles is very quick and looks good as a change of pace back to compliment LJ. He’s dangerous in draw plays and screens. Dwayne Bowe didn’t get a lot of touches early, but gained more as the game went on.  Chiefs defense looks decent, but not great.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks don’t look like they are in sync yet. Drives are somewhat awkward and not sustained. Matt Hasselbeck looks ok.  Julius Jones is having trouble finding running room inside… o-line is not busting big running lanes for him.  TJ Houshmanzadeh looks good, but didn’t get a lot of touches.  Nate Burleson looks healthy, made a couple good catches. Overall a pretty blah performance.  Seahawks defense is decent, good enough to give Tyler Thigpen problems, which isn’t saying much.

Our series on potential breakout players in each division makes its way to the AFC West. Mediocrity reigned in the West in 2008, as no team had a record better than 8-8. Both Denver and San Diego managed that mark, with the Chargers being the playoff representative of the division. Each squad will be looking to improve in 2009, with the help of a few players who could come into their own, making an impact not only on their teams, but on those of fantasy owners as well. A look now at some candidates to break out.

Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton: Speaking of sheer averageness, Orton has been just that as a quarterback in his four seasons in the NFL, throwing a total of 30 touchdowns and 27 interceptions while completing just over 55 percent of his passes. But last season, he showed fantasy owners a glimmer of his potential, with 18 touchdown passes to 12 picks and nearly 3,000 passing yards. Yet most of his damage was done in the season’s first seven contests, as he threw 10 scores and was intercepted only four times to go with four games of at least 265 passing yards. He got injured shortly after that, which caused him to miss one game. Then, in his final eight games, only twice did he accumulate more than 200 passing yards while tossing eight touchdowns and eight picks. But being traded to Denver should only help the former Purdue star. He goes to an offense led by head coach Josh McDaniels, who helped mold Matt Cassel into a productive player last season in New England, and the weapons around Orton are superior to what he was working with in Chicago. He’s not a QB1 for fantasy owners, but there are far worse options to have as backups.

Kansas City Chiefs - Jamaal Charles: At this point, if you believe that running back Larry Johnson will stay healthy for 16 games, you probably also believe North Korean leader Kim-Jong Il shot five holes-in-one the first time he ever played golf, as he has claimed. Which leads us to Johnson’s backup in former third-round pick Charles. Last season, he ran for over 350 yards and averaged 5.3 yards per carry, but he’s most proficient in the passing game, as he was fourth on the team with 27 receptions and 272 yards (see graph). New Chiefs head coach Todd Haley threw the ball to his running backs often last season as Arizona’s offensive coordinator, as Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower and J.J. Arrington combined to catch 75 passes. So even during the games Johnson is healthy, Charles is a threat out of the backfield. If you do decide to select Johnson, Charles is an essential handcuff, but considering selecting him even if, like many others, you decide Johnson isn’t worth the hassle.

Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell: Alright, so putting someone here who was the first overall pick isn’t exactly going out on a limb. Granted. But the guy hasn’t lived up to that billing just yet. Still, Russell finally showed some signs of life at the end of last season, when in his last three games the former LSU gunslinger threw for 626 yards, six touchdowns and two picks while completing 63 percent of his passes. And though there is reason to be skeptical - a shoddy offensive line, unproven receivers - Russell has a huge arm and can do what the Raiders have said they will ask of him (via orders by the Crypt Keeper, Al Davis), which is throw deep. So maybe, just maybe, this is the year he puts it all together.

San Diego Chargers - Craig “Buster” Davis: On a team laden with proven veterans on offense, choosing a candidate to break out was fairly simple because the options were few. So we turned to Davis, the team’s first-round pick in 2007 who has just 24 career catches to his name. Only four of those receptions came last season as he injured his groin and failed to play in a contest after Week 5. But he’s 6-foot-1 and possesses good speed and athleticism, and could force his way into the lineup if he plays to his capabilities. Yet Davis’ health has been an issue since his days at LSU, so any hope of him breaking out rests on the fact that he actually, you know, gets on the field. If so, his dynamic abilities should shine.

The news that Larry Johnson has changed his mind and does not want to be traded from the Chiefs begs the question - what type of value does he hold in new head coach Todd Haley’s offense?

Haley, the offensive coordinator last season with Arizona, obviously did not focus on the run much in the desert, seeing that he had Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald to carve up defenses through the air. K.C. obviously does not possess those type of weapons in the passing game, despite the presence of Dwayne Bowe. This holds especially true when considering tight end Tony Gonzalez could be traded before or during the draft.

Meanwhile, Johnson - a likely first-round pick in fantasy drafts in 2008 - was a nightmare for his fantasy owners last year, as he not only missed four games in the middle of the season, but was wildly inconsistent when he did play. For example, he combined to rush for 200 yards in Weeks 4 and 5, but 198 of those came in Week 4. He’s shown the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, with three seasons of at least 30 catches in his career, so that is one good sign, as Haley has shown he is more than willing to throw the ball to his running backs. Last season with Arizona, J.J. Arrington, Tim Hightower and Edgerrin James combined to haul in 75 passes.

But the signs of regression are all there for Johnson. In the last two seasons he hasn’t played in more than 12 games, and does not have a year in which he’s carried the ball at least 200 times; this coming off two seasons of a combined 752 rushes. He turns 30 in November, and most ardent football fans know that 30 is the age running backs go to die.

The bottom line is this - Johnson can’t be considered anything more than a RB2 right now, and one that necessitates a handcuff in the form of Jamaal Charles, who should be a popular pick this season considering Johnson’s history. That means fantasy owners who grab Johnson will have to take Charles a bit earlier than they’d probably like in order to ensure having him on their roster. As far as I’m concerned, it’s not worth the trouble. I’ll let someone else take on the risks with him this year.