JaMarcus Russell is regressing, not only from last season to this one, but on a week-to-week basis. That’s the national consensus on Oakland’s former first overall draft pick who was guaranteed over $30 million just two seasons ago. Through three games this season, Russell has passed for 431 yards, one touchdowns, and four interceptions.

But the biggest concern in my opinion is his completion percentage. Last week against the Denver Broncos was Russell’s first game with a completion percentage above 40 percent. Sadly, Russell’s completion percentage wasn’t accompanied by an increase in any other statistical measure: he passed for 61 yards and threw two interceptions.

“I’m not saying JaMarcus can never be that guy,” Jeff Garcia said Friday. “It’s just right now he’s still young, he has a lot of growth that needs to take place within himself from a mental standpoint and a physical standpoint.”

Even Raiders passing game coordinator Ted Tollner admitted last week that Russell is “regressing.”

“That’s an accurate assessment,” Tollner told reporters. “because we really felt like we were making some real strides and the area was anticipation and turning the ball loose and trusting.”

“You can’t wait till people are open,” continued Tollner. “We made strides and last week we fell back in all those areas. That’s disappointing to all of us and we’ve got to get back on track. The answer? … It’s a number of things that happen and there has been a major emphasis on him, on JaMarcus, we’ve got to give (him) a foot rhythm that allows (him) to turn the ball loose on time and (he needs) to buy into that.”

Russell is drawing boos from fans and analysts alike. All agree that Russell is not playing like a starting quarterback, and unless he turns things around soon the Raiders should go in a different direction this season.

Consider Russell’s passing yards on a week-to-week basis. The graphs below display the clear decline in that area, despite his passing attempts declining at a significantly slower pace. First is the passing attempts:

As you can see, the decline is steady, from 30 to 24 to 21. But take a look at the following graph showing his decline in passing yards each week:

The slope of the decline is much faster. In fact, his yards are nearly cut in half each week, from 208 to 109 to 61. In other words, his yards per attempt has been getting shattered each week. Week one he posted a respectable 6.9, but he followed that up with a 4.5 and last week he managed just 2.9 yards per attempt.

Russell’s yards were impressive week one because of three big passes that boosted his yards through the roof. But when defenses have taken those big throws away, the rest has fallen apart for him. An easy way to show that is with the following graph, displaying Russell’s “big plays” this season, defined as throws covering at least 20 yards:

That steep decline very strongly resembles his overall drop in yards and yards per attempt. Last week he was held to zero completions of at least 20 yards and he averaged just 2.9 yards per attempt and 5.1 yards per completion. Those are horrendous numbers. Despite Russell’s big arm, 25 quarterbacks have completed more big plays than him. He’s underdeveloped and his maturity (as a quarterback) just isn’t there. He makes poor decisions, resulting in his four interceptions and shockingly low completion percentage.

Two more graphs before I close. First is his passer rating, and that’s followed by his fantasy numbers on a weekly basis:

In a nutshell, the first graph strongly suggests JaMarcus Russell shouldn’t be a starting NFL quarterback; the second screams “stay away” to fantasy players.

Overview

Oakland (1-2) can’t find an offense this season, and the performance of JaMarcus Russell is troubling. Many suggest he has regressed this season and the numbers validate that point: 41.3 percent completion rating, one touchdown, and four interceptions. If the Raiders don’t find some offense this week, it could wind up looking a lot like last week when the Broncos blew them out 23-3.

Houston (1-2), on the other hand, is the anti-Oakland; Matt Schaub has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes for 657 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception in Houston’s last two games. The obvious note to take is that, in spite of that, Houston has the same record as Oakland. The Raiders, who have scored 16 points in their last two games, and the Texans, who have scored 58, have the same record.

When Oakland has the ball …

… this is the week to score points. The Raiders have one glimmer on offense, the running game, and it’s going toe-to-toe with the league’s worst rushing defense. Houston has allowed 615 rushing yards in three games this season, and though the Raiders haven’t had a lot of luck running the ball — Darren McFadden and Michael Bush average a combined 3.8 yards per carry — the talent is there.

McFadden is explosive and the Texans may struggle to contain him, just as they have failed to contain Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and Thomas Jones this season. All three running backs broke 100 yards in their respective games against Houston, and Oakland’s only real shot in this one is to keep the ball out of Matt Schaub’s hands and make plays in the running game.

It would be nice to bank on JaMarcus Russell keeping pace with the Texans, but it’s a silly suggestion. Russell has looked worse in each progressing game this season: week one he completed 40.0 percent of his pass attempts for 208 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions; the following week he completed just 29.2 percent of his passes for 109 yards; and last week he completed 57.1 percent of his attempts for 68 yards and two interceptions. By every measure he has gotten worse and even against a poor defense like Houston, expecting more than 150 passing yards and a touchdown seems naive.

When Houston has the ball …

… they should not underestimate the Raiders’ defense. Oakland hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a single game this season, despite facing San Diego week one. Furthmore, fantasy players should recognize that the Raiders held Philip Rivers to just one touchdown while forcing an interception.

In other words, Houston’s running backs — mainly Steve Slaton — should see more work this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed 155 rushing yards and one touchdown per game this season. Slaton is off to a slow start, but this may be the opponent to get him back on his feet.

That said, Houston’s passing game is very good. As noted in the overview, Matt Schaub has played stellar the past two weeks and this is a scary offense to face. At the same time, both Jacksonville and Tennessee — Houston’s last two opponents — have struggled throughout the season to stop quarterbacks. Compare that to Houston’s week one opponenent, the New York Jets, a team that has defended the pass very well this season and held Schaub to 166 passing yards and an interception week one.

I’m not necessarily suggesting Schaub will have a bad week, but it may not be the week some fantasy players expect when they Oakland’s name on the schedule.

The player who will no doubt have a good week is Andre Johnson. The Raiders have consistently allowed an opponents’ starting wide receiver to have a respectable game; that won’t change when they face arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL.

The advantage goes to …

Houston. Oakland simply doesn’t have enough offense to contend with Houston, and unless JaMarcus Russell pulls something out of a magic hat, this could be another tough loss for the Raiders.

Studs and Duds

Stud: Steve Slaton — Oakland has consistently given up yards and touchdowns to opposing running backs this season and with Chris Brown listed as questionable (shin), there’s no doubt Slaton will get the vast number of touches. Besides, Slaton has been a consistent contributor in the passing game with nine receptions for 97 yards this season. This week is lined up to be a 100-yard, touchdown matchup.

Dud: Anyone Involved in Oakland’s Passing Game — The Raiders have had almost no success passing the ball this season, and in spite of the fact Houston has allowed seven passing touchdowns, Russell is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. If Kansas City kept him from completing 30 percent of his pass attempts, I doubt other NFL teams will have trouble.

I usually like to write about topics that are significant to fantasy football. Jamarcus Russell is rarely included in any of these articles, since he has little, if any, fantasy football value. I rarely watch Oakland games or pay attention to Russell and after watching the Raiders vs Chiefs game this weekend, I remember why. 

One would expect that a starting QB entering his second full season would be able to throw the football. Now, I’m not talking about his arm strength or his release speed, but his accuracy (or lack thereof). I have never seen so many passes into the ground, behind the receiver, over the head of the receiver, wide open misses, and poorly located throws. Starting QBs don’t perform like this for long, before getting pulled…even the game manager type QBs.  To me, this is not something that can easily be corrected with a new throwing motion or coaching approach. If it was easy to fix, it would have been fixed already. Instead, this seems like a fundamental flaw in his ability.

Given this flaw..why would the Raiders stick with Russell? If they recognized that this was a problem, they would have kept Jeff Garcia on the team and given him a fair chance to lead the team. After all, a QB that can throw completions, is better than one that can’t. It can’t be blamed on the WRs either, since they are capable receivers and most of the bad passes are incomplete due to the throw not the catch. Is it due to big player contracts?…are they unable to afford another QB in the draft or free-agency because of the large contracts they’ve signed to their younger players? Or is it Al Davis?

Whatever the reason, Russell will continue to have no fantasy value and little actual value if he continues to miss the target.

Here’s a quick summary of a couple of the NFL Preseason Week 3 Saturday games.

DETROIT LIONS
The Lions offense was able to move down the field against the Colts. This is likely partly due to an improvement by the Lions and Colts average defense.  Daunte Culpepper started the game. It’s looking to me like Culpepper is going to start the season at QB for Detroit. Especially since Stafford looked so raw in his game last week. Culpepper is reunited with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan from the big Vikings years, so he likely has an advantage in knowing the terminology and plays. Culpepper looked ok, some inaccurate throws. Matt Stafford got on the field in the second quarter. Stafford had one good throw down the seam to Calvin Johnson, otherwise lots of handoffs, short quick passes, likely designed to help his confidence.  Calvin Johnson looked good. Is clearly going to get jump balls and fade routes in the end zone.  Kevin Smith is getting a lot of screen passes and doing a great job of picking up first downs and lots of yards after catch. He’s very elusive and is making the most of his opportunities. Kevin Smith is also getting a few goal line carries, so he’s going to get a few opportunities to score close in on the ground. Jerome Felton is otherwise the goal line guy.  Detroit defense looks better than last year (how could it not), but is still pretty porous.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts looked sharp and in sync as you would expect. They confidently drove down the field and scored without a lot of resistance or challenge.  Peyton Manning looked sharp as usual. He’s clearly back to 100% for this season. Dallas Clark seems to be the favorite of Manning with several catches and an easy touchdown.  Anthony Gonzalez looks like he’s going to get more looks and TD opportunities.  Joseph Addai started the game and looked ok. Not sure if this means that Addai will be the primary back…it’s likely that Donald Brown will split carries. Donald Brown looks good.  Reggie Wayne looks ok, but didn’t get a lot of touches.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Saints offense got a quick start and drove the field against the raiders without much problem.  Drew Brees looked sharp, quick passes and on target. He’s ready for the regular season and only played the 1st quarter after racking up a score of 21 to 0.  Lance Moore was getting lots of touches and looked good with a TD.  Jeremy Shockey looked ok, not much of a threat, but gets his touches.  Mike Bell looked good, but hasn’t had a lot of room to run. He’s looking strong and quick.  The Saints defense still doesn’t look very good.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Raiders were not able to move the ball and got shut out in the first half.  They turned the ball over on first drive and later had a near interception. The Raider offense may not get much time on the field, since the Raider defense is allowing long drives by their opponents.  JaMarcus Russell looked mediocre, with some good passes mixed in with some off target throws and near interception.  Michael Bush looked decent but not as good as McFadden.  Darren McFadden looked very good…running with speed and power and now catches the ball too. Not sure why McFadden didn’t start.  Raiders defense is terrible. Saints were able to pretty much do what they wanted without much resistance….scoring 3 TDs to start the game.

The NFL is back. This weekend, training camp got underway for the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles, and during the upcoming week, the remaining 30 teams will begin their preparation for the season. As such, fantasy football drafts will take place en masse over the next month or so. Let’s take a look at the top-30 gunslingers for the upcoming season. For a reference point, the graph below shows the top-15 quarterbacks from last season in terms of fantasy points.

1. Drew Brees: A no-brainer. Brees was the only QB with over 5,000 passing yards last season, and he tied Philip Rivers for the lead in TD passes with 34.

2. Peyton Manning: The epitome of consistency, which is gold in fantasy football. Manning has thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards just one time since his second year in the league, and has never tossed fewer than 26 touchdowns.

3. Tom Brady: A legitimate argument can be made to place him higher, but that 50-touchdown season won’t be repeated, and you have to be at least slightly concerned about anyone coming back from a knee injury like the one he did. Then again, he did have time to recover with a Victoria’s Secret model caring for him, which probably expedited the healing process.

4. Aaron Rodgers: It was easy to overlook Rodgers last season because the Packers were not contenders, but he was fourth in the league with 28 touchdown passes, has a plethora of talented wideouts, and oh yeah, ran for 200 yards, and made four trips to the end zone on foot.

5. Tony Romo: Missing three games hurt his yard total, which is why he was only in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy scoring in 2008, but he was still fifth in the league with 27 scoring throws.

6. Philip Rivers: Rivers likely won’t repeat the career year he had last season, when he found the end zone 34 times, but at least 25 is more than reasonable to expect in 2009.

7. Kurt Warner: Injuries are the biggest concern, or he’d be higher on the list. The 38-year-old played in 16 games last season for the first time since 2001, and just the third time in his entire career.

8. Donovan McNabb: Threw more than 20 touchdowns last season for the first time since 2004, and just the fourth time in his 10-year career. He also had the fewest rushing yards of any season that he’s played in at least 10 games.

9. Jay Cutler: He comes to a new offense, and one that does not have nearly the weapons he had in Denver. That, along with a better defense that will not force him to throw so often, will cut into his numbers.

10. Carson Palmer: A potential under-the-radar pick, Palmer is without T.J. Houshmandzadeh for the first time in his career. Yet he still has some solid weapons, and before getting hurt last season, was coming off three straight campaigns of at least 26 touchdown throws.

11. Matt Cassel: Can Cassel accomplish the same things in K.C. that he did in New England without Randy Moss?

12. Matt Schaub: Fantasy owners are just waiting for him to blow up, as dynamic playmakers surround the former Virginia star. Now, if he can only stay healthy.

13. Ben Roethlisberger: The civil suit for sexual assault is troublesome beyond the scope of fantasy football, but he’s been overrated in that sense anyway due to one big season.

14. Matt Ryan: Ryan should follow his solid rookie campaign with another step forward. Whether it’s a baby step or a leap will help determine how he’s viewed in the future.

15. Matt Hasselbeck: Plagued by a back injury last season, Hasselbeck is one year removed from the best season of his career.

Best of the Rest

16. David Garrard
17. Kyle Orton
18. Chad Pennington
19. Eli Manning
20. Brett Favre
21. Jake Delhomme
22. Joe Flacco
23. Jason Campbell
24. Trent Edwards
25. Marc Bulger
26. JaMarcus Russell
27. Shaun Hill
28. Kerry Collins
29. Brady Quinn
30. Daunte Culpepper

Our series on potential breakout players in each division makes its way to the AFC West. Mediocrity reigned in the West in 2008, as no team had a record better than 8-8. Both Denver and San Diego managed that mark, with the Chargers being the playoff representative of the division. Each squad will be looking to improve in 2009, with the help of a few players who could come into their own, making an impact not only on their teams, but on those of fantasy owners as well. A look now at some candidates to break out.

Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton: Speaking of sheer averageness, Orton has been just that as a quarterback in his four seasons in the NFL, throwing a total of 30 touchdowns and 27 interceptions while completing just over 55 percent of his passes. But last season, he showed fantasy owners a glimmer of his potential, with 18 touchdown passes to 12 picks and nearly 3,000 passing yards. Yet most of his damage was done in the season’s first seven contests, as he threw 10 scores and was intercepted only four times to go with four games of at least 265 passing yards. He got injured shortly after that, which caused him to miss one game. Then, in his final eight games, only twice did he accumulate more than 200 passing yards while tossing eight touchdowns and eight picks. But being traded to Denver should only help the former Purdue star. He goes to an offense led by head coach Josh McDaniels, who helped mold Matt Cassel into a productive player last season in New England, and the weapons around Orton are superior to what he was working with in Chicago. He’s not a QB1 for fantasy owners, but there are far worse options to have as backups.

Kansas City Chiefs - Jamaal Charles: At this point, if you believe that running back Larry Johnson will stay healthy for 16 games, you probably also believe North Korean leader Kim-Jong Il shot five holes-in-one the first time he ever played golf, as he has claimed. Which leads us to Johnson’s backup in former third-round pick Charles. Last season, he ran for over 350 yards and averaged 5.3 yards per carry, but he’s most proficient in the passing game, as he was fourth on the team with 27 receptions and 272 yards (see graph). New Chiefs head coach Todd Haley threw the ball to his running backs often last season as Arizona’s offensive coordinator, as Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower and J.J. Arrington combined to catch 75 passes. So even during the games Johnson is healthy, Charles is a threat out of the backfield. If you do decide to select Johnson, Charles is an essential handcuff, but considering selecting him even if, like many others, you decide Johnson isn’t worth the hassle.

Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell: Alright, so putting someone here who was the first overall pick isn’t exactly going out on a limb. Granted. But the guy hasn’t lived up to that billing just yet. Still, Russell finally showed some signs of life at the end of last season, when in his last three games the former LSU gunslinger threw for 626 yards, six touchdowns and two picks while completing 63 percent of his passes. And though there is reason to be skeptical - a shoddy offensive line, unproven receivers - Russell has a huge arm and can do what the Raiders have said they will ask of him (via orders by the Crypt Keeper, Al Davis), which is throw deep. So maybe, just maybe, this is the year he puts it all together.

San Diego Chargers - Craig “Buster” Davis: On a team laden with proven veterans on offense, choosing a candidate to break out was fairly simple because the options were few. So we turned to Davis, the team’s first-round pick in 2007 who has just 24 career catches to his name. Only four of those receptions came last season as he injured his groin and failed to play in a contest after Week 5. But he’s 6-foot-1 and possesses good speed and athleticism, and could force his way into the lineup if he plays to his capabilities. Yet Davis’ health has been an issue since his days at LSU, so any hope of him breaking out rests on the fact that he actually, you know, gets on the field. If so, his dynamic abilities should shine.

JaMarcus Russell’s first season as an NFL starter was, well, shaky at best. His competence as a pro passerwas short of commendable, but it wasn’t so poor as to suggest he has no potential. Over the course of the season his numbers fluctuated, and he finished like a typical rookie: a bit over 2,400 yards passing, 13 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and a 77.1 passer rating.

Bad numbers? Strictly in terms of fantasy football, yes. Considering the performance of some of his peers - Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan jump to mind - Russell’s pedestrian totals might suggest he’s behind the curve, especially considering those two examples literally were rookies. At the same time, one must realize Russell wasn’t playing for the same quality teams. Oakland isn’t built like a champion; the entire franchise is designed for subpar play.

Long story short, Russell had a season that didn’t wow fans but also left room for development.

The question now is whether he’s been making those strides. Early offseason impressions aren’t promising, as Evan Silva reports at Rotoworld:

I’ve been working at Rotoworld for over three years now and never before seen such consistently poor spring reports as JaMarcus Russell has gotten through late May.

He sites a couple eyewitness reports from local beat writers who tell of Russell landing balls at his receivers feet when his passes aren’t sailing over their heads. Even when he was just playing catch with his receivers (in other words, against no defense) he couldn’t hit all his targets.

It’s early of course, and Russell has a couple months before preseason to iron out the kinks. He has time to work with the team’s new personnel and continue learning the offensive scheme. Having said that, the clock is ticking. So how long can we wait? Silva went as far to ask, “At what point can we acknowledge that Russell is a bust?” It’s an interesting thing to say since, as I wrote a bit ago, he had a pretty average rookie season - but it wasn’t horrendous - and, c’mon, this will be his second full season in the league.

While we do wait to see what Russell is capable of doing, is there anything we take from last season? Certainly Russell won’t regress, right?

A quick fact worth pointing out now to illustrate the range of games Russell had: his passer rating ranged from 11.0 to 149.1 in games. Matter of fact, he posted a rating of at least 80 in three consecutive games just once during the season; on two other occasions he had back-to-back games with a rating that high. If the final three games of the 2008 are any indication of what is to come we can all look forward to 2009 - Russell passed for 626 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in those games. He also threw at least one touchdown in 9 of his 15 starts; could be better, but that’s a start.

It’s also important to remember that Oakland doesn’t throw the ball a lot. This is a run-first team built around the running backs. The key to success relies on two things, then: the success of the guys taking handoffs and Russell’s ability to convert on third down.

And that’s where we find our first problem with Oakland’s offense last season. The Raiders finished 32nd in the NFL in third down conversion success rate, converting just 28 percent of the time. As you can guess that leads to a lot of punts and very few touchdowns. (F.Y.I..: the Raiders were 28th in the NFL in touchdowns scored.)

That’s the area Russell and the offense need to improve most this season. Russell’s inconsistency and 53.8 percent completion rate kept the Raiders’ offense from scoring more often last season. He didn’t have enough opportunities to throw touchdowns because Oakland’s drives were stalling.

If Russell can improve his completion percentage - raising it to at least 60, a respectable number - and improve his decision-making on third downs, the Raiders will be all the better for it. He might then finish with 16-18 touchdowns and close to 3,000 passing yards. If, on the other hand, he has a season similar to last year, it should be noted: patience is draining quickly and Jeff Garcia is hungry.

Our series on the fantasy value of quarterbacks in each division in the NFL continues with the AFC West. Like its counterpart in the NFC, the western division in the AFC has recently been one where success has been more elusive than the Holy Grail. Still, a new year brings new hope, not only for the teams in the division, but for those fantasy owners who may wind up with one of the division’s quarterbacks on their roster. Let’s take a look.

Denver Broncos:  New Denver head coach Josh McDaniels had an offseason that started off rockier than Colorado’s mountains when quarterback Jay Cutler got upset that McDaniels was reportedly interested in bringing Matt Cassel in as the team’s signal caller. The two never got on the same page, and the situation between the pair quickly decomposed, leading to Cutler getting traded to the Bears for draft picks and Kyle Orton. Despite the presence of Chris Simms and rookie Tom Brandstater, Orton likely enters camp as the team’s No. 1 quarterback. He makes for one of the more intriguing fantasy options in the league due to his promising play before getting hurt last season, and the fact that McDaniels helped Cassel go from irrelevant backup to someone who finished in the top-10 in passing yards, touchdown passes, and quarterback rating. Can the same be done with Orton? It’s possible, especially with the weapons Denver possesses on offense. Still, it’s hard to figure Orton as a guy fantasy owners should depend on as their QB1 heading into the season considering his lack of past success. But you should feel more than comfortable with him as a backup.

Kansas City Chiefs: Despite the solid play of Tyler Thigpen last season for the Chiefs, the team, behind new GM Scott Pioli, decided to make a trade for Matt Cassel to be their quarterback, and signed him to a long-term deal. Thigpen only completed 54.8 percent of his throws last year, but he did toss 18 touchdowns, and ran for three more, making him a fairly decent option for fantasy owners off the waiver wire. Alas, he’ll be relegated to backup status in 2009, as Cassel takes over the reins. Cassel came out of nowhere last season to play well, but he was a bit iffy as a fantasy option due to his relative inconsistency. He was a boom-or-bust type, as he had five games with at least three touchdown passes, but five games with no touchdown throws. With Tony Gonzalez traded to Atlanta, the Chiefs are essentially looking at Dwayne Bowe and veteran Bobby Engram as their only receiving threats. That’s a far cry from having Randy Moss and Wes Welker running routes. But Cassel does offer great upside, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him put together a season similar to last year, but hopefully one with more consistency. Call him a low-end QB1.

Oakland Raiders: Oakland does things one way, and only one way - the Al Davis way. That doesn’t figure to change until the Crypt Keeper is finally entombed, and means former No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell will again be trying to throw to receivers whose main asset is speed; route-running and hands be damned. Russell hasn’t come close to living up to his draft status, but he did show a bit of improvement towards the end of the year, as he posted his only two games of throwing for at least 230 yards and two scores in the season’s final three weeks. Nonetheless, Oakland possesses a shaky offensive line and solid stable of running backs, so fantasy owners should look elsewhere for their quarterback on draft day.

San Diego Chargers: Somewhat quietly, Philip Rivers had one of the best seasons in the league for a quarterback in 2008. While most fantasy owners cursed the slowdown of running back LaDainian Tomlinson, they may have been overlooking the ascension of Rivers to elite status. He led the NFL with a quarterback rating of 105.5, tied Drew Brees for the league lead with 34 touchdown passes, was fifth with 4,009 passing yards, and seventh with a 65.3 completion percentage. As Tomlinson hits age 30 before the season, look for the team to depend even more on Rivers. He still has a deluge of talented receivers at his disposal, not to mention one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the game in Antonio Gates. Rivers should be targeted as one of the upper-echelon fantasy quarterbacks in the league, arguably behind only the aforementioned Brees and Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning.

The Oakland Raiders season has the makings of a rollercoaster ride: in week one the team was blown out by the Broncos, only to bounce back a week later with a win over the Chiefs. Since then, however, two losses spelled doom for former head coach Lane Kiffen, who was fired (evidently without pay). What’s gone right and wrong this season? Check it out.

1. The Raiders last two losses were decided by margins of one and ten points and in both games the Raiders had fourth quarter leads. Oakland scored 23, 23, and 18 points in their last three games; last season the team averaged 17.7 per game and the season before that it averaged 10.5 points.

2. JaMarcus Russell has an 84.9 quarterback rating. If he can finish the season with a similar rating, it will mark the first time since 2002 that a starting quarterback finishes a season with a passer rating of at least 80. Incidentally, the Raiders won the AFC Championship that season, as well.

3. The Raiders running game is ranked 3rd in the NFL, as the offense has averaged 155 yards per game this season. Darren McFadden has led the charge with 272 yards in four starts, pacing himself for a season of 1,088 yards. If he can up his pace a bit, he’ll be the first Raider in over a decade to break 1,100 rushing yards.

4. McFadden’s game-by-game is a bit disappointing this season. He blew fans away week two when he rushed for 164 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, in his other three starts this season he’s accumulated just 108 rushing yards and no touchdowns. Also, his yard per carry average in those three games is just 3.6.

5. It bears mentioning that the coaches have fed running back Michael Bush the ball on a more consistent basis this season, relative to McFadden. Bush has handled 16, 14, and 14 carries in the past three games. He has 193 rushing yards this season and is averaging 64.3 yards per game he plays. McFadden is averaging 68 yards per game. Bush also has as many touchdowns as McFadden.

6. Just to throw it out there, as well: Justin Fargus was injured week two, but before that he was averaging 70 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Both numbers are comparable to McFadden’s averages this season.

7. JaMarcus Russell is on pace for 2,672 yards passing, 16 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 4 rushing touchdowns this season. Vince Young put together 2,199 yards passing, 12 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and 7 rushing touchdowns when he won rookie of the year in 2006.

8. The Raiders, who are tied for fewest wins in the AFC West this season, have the division’s best scoring defense, averaging a bit more than 25 points per game. Not surprisingly, however, Oakland’s offense is ranked 3rd in the division in scoring offense this season and third in points differential.

9. No Raiders wide receiver has more than five catches this season, though three running backs have at least six catches this year. Tight End Zach Miller leads the team with 11 catches for 153 yards and 1 touchdown, confirming the notion that young quarterbacks tend to target tight ends.

10. Here’s a telling stat: the Raiders rank 31st in third down conversion rate, getting a first down just 14.5 percent of the time. They are also tied for most fumbles/game lost this season, giving opponents the ball via fumble an average of 1.25 times per game.

It’s all the rage in fantasy football to find the best sleeper, that breakout player no one sees coming. But it’s just as important to know the names of some players you shouldn’t take a chance on because the risk outweighs the reward.

This is a list of the top eight players I won’t be taking when I’m on the clock later this month unless I can get exceptional value out of them. Take note.

8. Jon Kitna - Kitna imploded during the second half of last season and threw more interceptions than touchdowns for the second season in a row. With the absence of Mike Martz this season I can’t envision Kitna breaking 4,000 passing yards and 20 touchdown passes. He’s a serviceable backup, but I’d rather take someone with a little more upside (Jason Campbell, Aaron Rodgers, etc.).

7. Clinton Portis - Inconsistency is brutal to deal with during the course of a season and few players finish with the numbers of Portis with his inconsistency. His season totals look good - 1,262 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns - but when you take away weeks 9 and 10 (when he carried 36 and 30 times, respectively) his weekly average drops to about 66 rushing yards.

6. JaMarcus Russell - He’s essentially a rookie playing in an offense that hasn’t put together a good looking passing game since 2002, and the offensive line is very suspect. The addition of Darren McFadden will definitely help, but Russell isn’t worth a spot on my roster yet.

5. Wes Welker - Okay, I should specify; I’m not taking Welker as a WR1. I know some publications have him that high, but I just don’t see it. Consider: he averaged 10.5 yards per catch last season, so despite 112 catches he failed to break 1,200 receiving yards. And 8 touchdowns? That’s good, but Brady also threw 50. I’m guessing that when Brady’s total drops this season, Welker’s will follow suit.

4. Michael Turner - Here’s why the Falcons running game failed last season after so many successful season: the offensive line was exposed. Though Michael Vick may have some character issues, he’s a heckuvan athlete and the reason Atlanta had any past success. Now, with no passing game to speak of and a problematic offensive line, Michael Turner has the deck stacked against him with no proof that he can handle a full time role in any offense.

3. Roy Williams - Detroit’s passing game is a question mark with Mike Martz around this season, and I think that will extend to the wide receivers’ production. Plus, Williams scored five touchdowns last year and didn’t finish the season for the second time in three years. And he was maddeningly inconsistent, kicking off the season with three straight weeks with a touchdown, followed up by a five week drought.

2. Willie Parker - Yards are nice. Touchdowns are better. Such is the problem with Willie Parker, who rushed for 1,316 yards but scored just 2 touchdowns. Worse yet, he had just 164 receiving yards. And since the Steelers invested a draft pick in bruiser Rashard Mendenhall, I have little hope that Parker will increase his scoring this season.

1. Edgerrin James - He’s 30 now; no active player has more career carries or touches than him; he hasn’t averaged 4.0 yards per carry since moving to the desert; he’s scored a grand total of 13 touchdowns in the past two seasons; he has 1 receiving touchdown in the past five seasons. Do I need to keep going?