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Posts Tagged ‘Kansas City Chiefs’

Player Spotlight: Matt Cassel

Saturday, January 23rd, 2010

When you take a look at Matt Cassel’s 2008 stats and you factor in the appointment of Charlie Weis as Chiefs’ OC, you realize that Kansas City is faced with a paradox: Charlie Weis loves to employ the spread offense which frequently has at least 3, but often 4 or 5 receivers on the field at a time. But Cassel struggles in multiple receiver sets where it’s tougher to read defenses and throw the ball downfield. (With the stats below, receivers are counted as anyone who lines up out wide or in the slot; thus, running backs and tight ends flexed out are counted as receivers).

So what should the Chiefs do? Forcing Cassel into the spread could be like fitting a square peg into a round hole. I thought about the Chiefs possibly utilizing Cassel more in the shotgun which would give him a little more time to avoid the rush and a better look at the defensive alignment. However, that idea was put to rest once I saw these stats:

Cassel’s metrics show him as an average passer when in the traditional offensive formation: under center and with only 2 wide receivers. However, when forced to perform in the Todd Haley-friendly (and soon to be Weis-friendly) shotgun-spread formations, Cassel enters JaMarcus Russell-territory. No one expected Cassel to do as well in Kansas City as he did in New England but not even his biggest critics expected his passer rating to drop 20 points. Perhaps he and Weis can come up with some sort of a compromise as to what kind of offense they are both comfortable running and Cassel can show why he was worth $63 million. Or perhaps it was just the “Patriots system” that made Cassel in 2007 and in 2008 he showed why he was a 7th round pick.

However, I’m not ready to label the Cassel trade a disaster for KC just yet as he needs more than one season to prove his worth.  With the way that Jamaal Charles finished his 2009 season look for the Chiefs to feature him prominently in 2010 which could actually help Cassel’s numbers just as Chris Johnson did for Vince Young.  Expect shorter passes to boost Cassel’s completion percentage but that will inversely affect his yards per attempt.  As for his QB rating, Cassel’s such a high-volume passer that his rating has no choice but to go up.  His 69.9 season passer rating was the lowest in six years for a QB who had at least 490 pass attempts.  Weis loves for his QB to spread the ball around a la the pre-Welker/pre-Moss Patriots who didn’t have a 1000-yard receiver from 2002-2006.  While that may ultimately hurt Dwayne Bowe’s numbers, it should boost Cassel’s back into fantasy relevance.  He may never live up to his $63 million contract, but at least for 2010 he is a high-end QB2 who could see a spot-start during bye weeks.

Week 12 Review: Targets

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

It’s Tuesday, and with all games having been played, it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: As our graph shows, Houshmandzadeh has been the recipient of 97 targets this season, including a team-high six in Seattle’s win over the Rams last week. However, he hasn’t done much considering only seven players have gotten more looks than he has. He caught a measly two passes for 14 yards last week, and has only 56 receptions for 632 yards so far in the ’09 campaign. The high number of targets he’s received is just another reason to count him among the biggest disappointments of the fantasy football season.

- Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons: Jenkins received eight targets last week in Atlanta’s win over the Buccaneers, and he came down with seven receptions for 80 yards. While Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White got more looks (12 and 13, respectively), and will continue to do so, Jenkins’ production over his last two games should not be ignored; he had six receptions for 76 yards two weeks ago. His catch totals in each of his past two games have each been season-highs, and his 80 receiving yards are a season-high.

- Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: The wideout with the most targets for the Bills last week wasn’t Owens, it was Lee Evans. Evans received six targets, and Owens had five, yet T.O. had far more success, catching all five of the passes thrown his way for 96 yards and a touchdown, while Evans had only two catches for 40 yards. Beware of getting caught in the trap that is Owens’ big numbers of late – he faces the Jets this weekend, and Darrelle Revis has shut nearly every big-time wide receiver down this season.

- Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis Colts: Garcon received seven targets from Peyton Manning last week in the Colts’ come-from-behind win over the Texans. That included a number of red zone looks, and Garcon responded with five receptions for 63 yards and one touchdown. His seven targets were the second-most on the team behind Dallas Clark, and were one more than Reggie Wayne.

- Chris Chambers, Kansas City Chiefs: Chambers was targeted eight times last week as the Chiefs got blown out by Chambers’ old team, the Chargers. He led the team in targets, and wound up with seven catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. He’s unquestionably the No. 1 wideout for K.C. with Dwayne Bowe out due to suspension, and his targets should reflect that.

- Other Week 10 target numbers of interest: Kenny Britt, 11; Sidney Rice, Mark Clayton, Sam Aiken, 10; Laveranues Coles, 9; Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Chansi Stuckey, 8; Jeremy Maclin, Chaz Schilens, Sammie Stroughter, Brian Hartline, 7; Robert Meachem, 6; Chad Ochocinco, 5; Roy Williams, 4; Devin Hester, 2.

Crunching Numbers after Week 11

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009
  • While I have to wait until Super Bowl XLIV to accurately state that New England has held off Pittsburgh as the team of the decade, right now I can undoubtedly say that the Colts and the Ravens have had the decade’s best offenses and defenses, respectively.  But in their recent matchups, both the offense AND the defense of the Colts have overpowered the Ravens.  The teams have met each year since 2004 and Indy has gone 6-0 in those matchups.  The dominant defense in those contests has belonged to Indianapolis as they have allowed four offensive TDs to the Ravens while the Colts’ offense has scored 16 offensive touchdowns on the Ravens’ defense.
  • Vince Young has won eight straight starts with the eight starts spread over three seasons.  Although unique, it’s not the first time a QB has won at least eight straight games with the starts spread over more than two seasons.  Trent Dilfer won 15 straight games (including playoffs) with two different teams earlier this decade.  He started the streak in November 2000 with the Ravens, was an undefeated part-time starter with the Seahawks the following year, and didn’t have the streak end until September 2002.
  • Tom Brady has not quite been Tom Terrific away from Foxboro recently.  Brady is 0-4 in his last four starts played in American stadiums other than Gillette Stadium with losses to the Giants in the Super Bowl and losses to the Jets, Broncos, and Colts this year.  (The American part is used to distinguish the Tampa Bay game which was played in England and was more of a home game for the Patriots than the Bucs even though it was listed as a “home game” for Tampa Bay.)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 98 yard TD pass to Terrell Owens was the first 98 yard pass completion since 1998.  It was only the third 98 yard TD pass since 1966 and during this 43 year span there have been eight 99 yard TD passes.
  • With 103 rushing yards vs. the Patriots, Thomas Jones passed Jim Taylor and Terry Allen to move into 30th all time in rushing yards.  The 31-year-old Jones has averaged 4.6 yards per carry in his 30s as compared to 3.9 yards per carry in his 20s.  Of the 29 players with more career rushing yards than Jones, only four of them also had a better average in their 30s than their 20s (Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn, Ricky Watters and the still active Fred Taylor).
  • Speaking of old running backs; Ricky Williams is on pace for over 1,000 rushing yards despite starting just one game.  If Williams can maintain his current pace, then he will become only the 4th running back in the past 30 years to gain at least 1,000 yards at the age of 32 or older.  Both Walter Payton in 1986 and Emmitt Smith in 2001 eclipsed 1,000 yards at the age of 32 while John Riggins did it at 34 in 1983 and then did it again at 35 in 1984.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs only have one rushing touchdown this year.  If they maintain their futility in scoring on the ground for the rest of the season, then they will tie the NFL record for fewest rushing touchdowns in a season.  The 1934 Brooklyn Tigers are the only team in NFL history to only score a single rushing touchdown in a season.
  • If Chad Ochocinco can gain 360 more receiving yards by the end of the season, then he will become only the fifth player in NFL history to gain 10,000 receiving yards in that player’s first nine years in the league.  Ochocinco would join Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, and Torry Holt who set the record with 11,864 receiving yards in his first nine years in the league.
  • This current Broncos collapse is very similar to the one they had in 2006.  Three years ago the Broncos started off 5-1 thanks to their defense: they only allowed 7 points per game through those first six.  Then from the seventh game on their record was 4-6 and they allowed 26 points per game.  This season the Broncos again started off hot thanks to their defense: they only allowed 11 points per game through the first six.  Then comes game seven and since then Denver is giving up 29 points per game and gone 0-4.  That 2006 team didn’t make the playoffs and I don’t see this current Broncos squad making it either.
  • The Raiders’ win against the Bengals was noteworthy for two reasons.  One, it was the game that Oakland had picked before the season even started to honor former player, Marquis Cooper, who died in a boating accident in March of this year.  The other reason that made it significant was the fact that the Raiders scored twice in the final minute for a win for only the second time in their franchise’s 50 year history.  The first time?  You may have heard of it described as the “Heidi Game”.

Week 9 Review: Targets

Monday, November 9th, 2009

It’s Monday, so it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals: Coles was targeted nine times in Cincinnati’s win over the Ravens this weekend. He came up with six receptions for 72 yards in what was his most productive day in a Bengals uniform. His nine targets tied Chad Ochocinco for the team high, and were four more than Andre Caldwell received. It was the most targets Coles had received in any one contest this season, and tied his total from the last three games combined.

- Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts: Clark had a whopping 16 targets en route to 14 receptions for 119 yards as Indianapolis eked by the Houston Texans on Sunday. Peyton Manning put the ball in the air 50 times during the contest, and nearly one out of every three of those throws was intended for Clark. The former Iowa tight end vaulted to fourth in the AFC and seventh in the NFL in total targets.

- James Jones, Green Bay Packers: With six targets in Green Bay’s debilitating loss to Tampa Bay, Jones now has 11 total targets in his last two contests, which is easily his highest two-game total of the season. Jones collected season highs with four catches and 103 yards in the game, along with a touchdown. With Jordy Nelson out of the lineup, Jones has taken advantage, and now has a touchdown reception in three of his last four games.

- Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins: Bess’s 14 targets were double the amount any other Dolphins player received in the team’s loss to the Patriots on Sunday. Still, he managed just six catches for 56 yards, and his lack of big-play ability is evident in the fact that he didn’t even have the most receiving yards on the team – Greg Camarillo did, with 71, despite getting the ball thrown his way just seven times.

- Lance Long, Kansas City Chiefs: If you haven’t heard of Long, don’t be alarmed; Sunday’s game was just the third time he suited up all season, and just the second time for the Chiefs. He was with Arizona in Week 1 before getting cut. But people will start to hear more about him now, considering the fact that he was targeted a team-high 11 times by Matt Cassel in K.C.’s loss to the Jags. Long wound up with eight catches for 74 yards in the game.

Other Week 9 target numbers of interest: Derrick Mason, 13; Earl Bennett, Casey Fitzsimmons, 11; Torry Holt, Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin, 9; Michael Crabtree, 8; Maurice Stovall, Dwayne Jarrett, Malcolm Floyd, 7; Kevin Walter, Robert Meacham, 6; Chris Chambers, 4.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Game Reviews: Part 2

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-2): Oakland, 13-10

Here’s proof you don’t need an offense to win a game: the Oakland Raiders totaled 176 yards from scrimmage and JaMarcus Russell completed just 7-of-24 (that’s around 30 percent) for 109 yards. How? No turnovers and a turnover-forcing defense.

Darren McFadden rushed 12 times for 35 yards and scored Oakland’s only touchdown of the game. He added 2 receptions for 20 yards, leading the team in catches; no one on had at least 30 yards receiving.

The 0-2 Chiefs moved the ball on offense when Matt Cassel was throwing passes but his two interceptions proved very costly. Both times he was in Oakland’s territory — the first time at the 49 and the second time in field goal range at the 33. In a game in which Oakland scored just 13 points, 7 of which in the fourth quarter, those turnovers were the difference.

Larry Johnson’s numbers weren’t outstanding and Oakland contained his running to 3.2 yards per carry, but thanks to his impressive number of touches — 27 — he accumulated 119 yards from scrimmage. That was a vast improvement over last week when he picked up 26 yards on 12 touches.

New England (1-1) at New York Jets (2-0): Jets, 16-9

Talk about being close to 0-2. After coming back in a miracle win over the Buffalo Bills last week, the Patriots couldn’t overcome a terrible performance by Tom Brady who completed just under half his 47 attempts for 216 yards and an interception for a 53 passer rating. Wide receiver Julian Edelmen caught 8 passes for 98 yards to lead the team in both categories.

New York’s Mark Sanchez was far more effective for the Jets, completing 14-of-22 for 163 yards and a touchdown to lead the Jets to their second win. Meanwhile, the rushing attack of Leon Washington and Thomas Jones combined for 112 yards on 28 carrries (exactly 4.0 yards per carry), and their numbers were near replicas. The defining difference was Washington’s 2 receptions for 18 yards; he also lost one fumble.

Sanchez’s passes were spread around rather evenly: Jericho Cotchery and Chansai Stuckey both caught four passes, Cotchery’s going for 87 yards (more than twice Stuckey’s 37 yards). Dustin Keller was the only other player with at least two catches, and one of his his three found him in the endzone for Sanchez’s only touchdown.

New Orleans (2-0) at Philadelphia (1-1): Saints, 48-22

If you drafted Drew Brees as your fantasy quarterback you’re probably 2-0 in your league. Brees topped over 300 yards for the second week in a row and tacked on his 7th, 8th, and 9th touchdown passes. On the year he has 669 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions; just as impressive, he has completed 75 percent of his pass attempts.

His top target: Marques Colston, who has 11 receptions for 128 yards and 3 touchdowns; he had 3 receptions for 30 yards week one and this week he caught 8 passes for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns. Only Devery Henderson has more yards at this point (174), averaging nearly 22 yards per reception.

And here’s the kicker: thanks in no small part to the ultra-effective passing game, Mike Bell has turned into a viable fantasy option at running back. He has 229 rushing yards and 1 touchdown this season, and both weeks he has put up at least 14 fantasy points (assuming standard scoring).

On the Eagles side, Kevin Kolb and the Eagles were keeping up with the Saints going into the second half. Unfortunately, then the wheels fell off. Kolb finished with 391 passing yards (!) and 2 touchdowns but 3 interceptions. Both Brent Celek and DeSean Jackson finished with over 100 receiving yards and Celek scored a touchdown. Jason Avant added 7 receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown. Though the Eagles gained a lot of yards on offense, the four turnovers killed them.

Houston (1-1) at Tennessee (0-2): Houston, 34-31

In a shootout in which both teams were tied 31-31 going into the fourth quarter, both teams lit it up on offense and struggled on defense. The Texans couldn’t contain Chris Johnson who rushed for 197 yards and led the team in receiving with 9 receptions for 87 yards, scoring 3 touchdowns along the way.

Kerry Collins completed 21 of his 33 pass attempts for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns and an interception. A significant portion of his passing yards went to Johnson who led this offense to three of its four touchdowns. Collins has been struggling this season, throwing two interceptions through the first two games of the season; last season he threw seven.

On Tennessee’s end, there was no stopping Matt Schaub and the Texans’ incredible passing game. Schaub tossed the football 39 times for 357 yards and 4 touchdowns, 2 of which went to Andre Johnson. Johnson caught 10 passes for 149 yards in all, bouncing back from a disappointing week one performance.

Schaub saw a significant improvement over week one when he completed just over half his passes for 166 yards and an interception. The key could be Tennesee’s porous pass defense that currently ranks dead last in the NFL.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Game Reviews: Baltimore over Kansas City and Philadelphia over Carolina

Monday, September 14th, 2009

Kansas City (0-1) at Baltimore (1-0): Baltimore, 38-24

Notes on Kansas City: It’s hard to assess whether Kansas City would have had more success on offense with Brodie Croyle in the game Sunday. One thing is certain, however: the defense struggled in a big way, allowing the Ravens to score 5 touchdowns.

On offense, the team wasn’t as bad as one might expect. The Chiefs put up 24 points, a pretty good total by any measure; no turnovers were committed and Croyle passed for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Where the team did struggle was when running the ball and on third downs. Larry Johnson picked up just 20 yards on 11 carries and the offense managed just 29 yards on 17 attempts. That’s not too surprising for since Kansas City was up against the Ravens, a team with a notorious rush defense. Struggling to run the ball, the Chiefs were forced into a lot of third down situations, of which they converted just 20 percent (2-of-10).

Kansas City Stud: Brodie Croyle – 16-of-24 for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns

Kansas City Dud: Larry Johnson – 11 carries for 20 yards and 1 reception for 6 yards

Notes on Baltimore: Whoa, Joe Flacco just passed the ball 43 times in the season opener; that’s eye-opening to say the least.

But before you assume the team was getting away from its bread-and-butter, keep this in mind: it also ran the ball 41 times when you count Flacco’s 5 scrambles. In other words, the Ravens were just overpowering the Chiefs in this one. Kansas City had no answers on defense, forcing one interception but allowing 3 passing scores and another 2 on the ground.

Ray Rice and the crew at running back were outstanding in this one. Rice carried 19 times, the number of times he’ll probably average this season, but managed to pick up 108 yards. He’s not a goal line back, but he is very explosive.

Willis McGahee was the most balanced of the backs. He carried 10 times for 44 yards and a score, but he added on that foundation with 4 receptions for 31 yards and another score. In all he finished with 75 yards and 2 scores.

Lastly, as the goal line and short yardage back LeRon McClain managed 6 carries for 19 yards and a score. He did add 3 receptions for 23 yards as one of Flacco’s targets.

Tight end Todd Heap was his favorite target of the day with 5 receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown; Michael Clayton (5 for 76 yards and 1 touchdown) was very similar. But note that the running backs and Heap combined for 14 of Flacco’s 26 completions – that’s a number to keep an eye on.

Baltimore Stud: Joe Flacco – 26-of-43 for 307 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception

Baltimore Dud: Derrick Mason – 4 receptions for 47 yards

Philadelphia (1-0) at Carolina (0-1): Philadelphia, 38-10

Notes on Philadelphia: The big news was Donovan McNabb’s injury. As most fantasy players know, McNabb was something of an injury risk on draft day, so this was a major scare. The good news is reports suggest he should be able to play next week. And that’s great, considering he played pretty solid in this game completing 10-of-18 for 79 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He also added a rushing touchdown to with a 3 yard scamper in the third quarter before he left the game and was spelled by Kevin Kolb (7-of-11 for 23 yards).

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia running game did just fine. Brian Westbrook carried 13 times for 64 yards and LeSean McCoy added 46 rushing yards on 9 attempts. Note that McNabb was the only player to score on the ground in this one: no doubt he was the reason for success on offense, so his return and health is paramount to Philadelphia’s continued success.

Also note that tight end Brent Celek led the team in receptions. He had 6 on the day for 37 yards and 1 touchdown. No one else caught more than 3 passes, and that was running back Brian Westbrook (8 yards).

Philadelphia Stud: Donovan McNabb – 10-of-18 for 79 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception; 1 carry for 3 yards and 1 touchdown

Philadelphia Dud: DeSean Jackson – 2 receptions for 9 yards

 

Notes on Carolina: 7 turnovers is going to lose a game almost every time, especially when an opponent is able to take advantage: Philadelphia did just that in this game. Jake Delhomme looked atrocious, completing 7 of 17 for 73 yards – unless you count his interception count (3) and the yardage Philadelphia was able to pick up on returns (45 yards). He even lost a fumble that was recovered for a touchdown. So there’s that.

Carolina’s bread and butter is its running game, though. So how did it do? Well, mediocre is the first word that comes to mind: DeAngelo Williams, who scored 20 touchdowns last season, carried 14 times for 37 yards and 1 touchdown, though he did lead the team in receiving with 4 receptions for 42 yards.

The rest of the offense chipped in with 16 attempts for 49 yards.

Carolina Stud: DeAngelo Williams – 14 carries for 37 yards and 1 touchdown; 4 receptions for 42 yards

Carolina Dud: Jake Delhomme – 7 of 17 for 73 yards and 3 interceptions, 1 fumble lost

Fantasy Spin on Roster Cutdowns

Monday, September 7th, 2009
  • Kansas City – Cut WR Amani Toomer; Cut WR Ashley Lelie; Placed WR Devard Darling on IR

Dwayne Bowe is a lock to start despite Coach Haley relegating him to third team during training camp, and Bobby Engram will operate from the slot.  That still leaves another starting wide receiver position available and the moves of the past week indicate that Mark Bradley has won that position.  Darling had started the first three games of preseason before tearing his ACL and veterans Toomer and Lelie just didn’t fit into Haley’s long-term or short-term plans.  Seeing how the Chiefs’ other two options are a sixth-round rookie (Quinten Lawrence) and a player who had zero receptions in seven games last year (Terrance Copper), it appears Bradley has this job locked up.  There’s a good chance that the Chiefs will not be ahead in many games this season so they will be throwing the ball to catch up to opposing teams.  Thus, Bradley makes for a viable late round draft pick or a free-agent pickup.

  • Arizona – Cut TE Leonard Pope

Pope wasn’t cut because of lack of ability or skill, but rather because he’s not a Ken Whisenhunt type of player.  He’s a better receiver than blocker and while that kept him in favor for former OC, Todd Haley, Whisenhunt needs more than a one-dimensional tight end.  Pope’s loss is the gain of two players, Dominique Byrd and Ben Patrick, as the Cardinals will run more of the two-tight end sets that Whisenhunt ran as OC of the Steelers.  One of these tight ends will emerge as more of a pass catching threat, likely Byrd, but when that happens he is nothing more than a bye-week replacement.

  • Buffalo – Cut RB Dominic Rhodes

Rhodes was expected to serve as the team’s number three running back and also the backup to Fred Jackson while starter Marshawn Lynch serves a three game suspension.  His release means Xavier Omon will serve as the backup to Jackson during those three games.  Omon is not worth a pickup as of right now but if Jackson gets hurt during his time as starter then you definitely want to grab Omon.  No matter how unproven Omon is, he would still be a starting running back and you can never have enough of those.

  • Indianapolis – Cut WR Josh Matthews

Matthews was second among Colts receivers in receptions during preseason and had been in a battle with Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie to be the #3 receiver.  Neither player has done much to separate himself from the other but everyone knows how important the slot receiver is to the Colts offense.  This is a wait-and-see scenario as after the first game we will have a clearer picture as to whom will get the most playing time.  Don’t expect the production of past slot guys like Brandon Stokley or Anthony Gonzalez, but with as much as the Colts throw the ball, this player would be worth a pickup in deeper leagues.

  • St. Louis – Cut RB Antonio Pittman; Cut RB Chris Ogbonnaya

The role as Steven Jackson’s backup has officially been won by Samkon Gado.  Pittman had been Jackson’s primary backup last season and Ogbonnaya had received the most carries during preseason.  If you have Jackson on your team then you may want to handcuff Gado as Jackson has missed four games in each of the past two seasons.  Don’t forget what Gado did with the Packers once Ahman Green was injured-he put up over 600 total yards and seven touchdowns in just eight games of play in 2005.

Preseason Week 3: Before the Games

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

With the third week of preseason games getting underway, it’s time to take a look around the league to see what’s going on, and what use it will be for the upcoming fantasy season.

- Reggie Brown (and His Fantasy Value) on the Move? The Philadelphia Eagles have too many receivers than they know what to do with, and the Philadelphia Daily News says that both the Jets and Ravens are interested in Reggie Brown. Brown is a former second-round draft pick who looked like he was going to blossom into an excellent player before getting injured and falling back on the depth chart last season. If he is moved, his fantasy value would rise by leaps and bounds, to the point where he would be worth drafting as a reserve.

- Jermichael Finley Pushing Donald Lee for Playing Time: Last season, Packers rookie and third-round pick, tight end Jermichael Finley, did loads of nothing, as fellow tight end Donald Lee helped fantasy owners to the tune of five touchdowns. Things could be quite different this season for both of them, as Finley has made people take notice with his play, or so says the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. This could be either beneficial or harmful to fantasy owners. If Finley steps up and takes the job outright from Lee, He has value as a big target who could be useful in the end zone. However, the most likely scenario is that the two split time, and neither puts up fantasy-worthy numbers. Keep that in mind when thinking about Lee as a TE2.

- Chiefs and Jags Talking Trade for Tyler Thigpen: NFL.com says that Thigpen (see his fantasy points per game last season on graph), the Kansas City quarterback and hero to many fantasy owners last season, may be on his way to Jacksonville. Apparently the NFL’s J.D. Drew Award winner (for yearly injuries), Brodie Croyle, is going to be the No. 2 quarterback behind Matt Cassel, leaving Thigpen out in the cold.

- Michael Crabtree Offered Fair-Market Deal: According to Santa Rosa Press Democrat reporter Matt Maiocco, the 49ers have offered Crabtree, the 10th overall pick in the draft, somewhere “in the neighborhood of five years, $20 million base, $26.5 million maximum, with $16 million guaranteed.” Which, as Maiocco points out, is solidly in between what No. 9 pick B.J. Raji got and what No. 11 pick Aaron Maybin got. Crabtree’s agent seems to think this is a fair deal as well, but Crabtree does not. Fantasy owners should not count on seeing him any time soon, it sounds like. His fantasy value has taken a major plunge since the beginning of training camp.

- Walter Jones Not Headed for Retirement: The longtime Seattle Seahawks left tackle is expected to be back with the team, reports the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. There was some speculation that Jones may hang ‘em up after undergoing another operation on his balky knee.

Fantasy Consequences - Week 1 of the Preseason

Monday, August 17th, 2009

Week 1 of the NFL’s preseason has come, and while every football fan probably watched their team with at least some level of interest, fantasy owners in particular were likely examining what information they could glean out of the contests. To aid in that pursuit, let’s take a look at the games played so far (there are two Monday night games – Jacksonville at Miami and Carolina at NY Giants) and the fantasy consequences of each.

New England 27, Philadelphia 25: One Mr. Bundchen, Tom Brady, was back to his old tricks, going 10-of-15 for 100 yards, one touchdown pass and one interception while staying healthy, which was just fine. It was interesting that Patriots tight end Chris Baker was on the receiving end of both of Brady’s scoring passes. As for Philly, rookie running back LeSean McCoy’s 10 carries for 55 yards made all those that will handcuff him to Brian Westbrook feel good.

Baltimore 23, Washington 0: At least Baltimore’s defense was in mid-season form. Washington did very little, and had just 48 offensive plays all night. In contrast, the Ravens had 54 passing plays, 15 of which came from Joe Flacco, who did a solid job by completing nine of them. On the running back front, Ray Rice (whose fantasy points from last year you can see on the right) carried the ball five times for 22 yards and Willis McGahee toted the rock four times for 26 yards, but Rice’s three catches for 38 yards trumped McGahee’s one catch for seven yards, and is a further indication why Rice is the favorite to be the starting running back.

Pittsburgh 20, Arizona 10: It was ho-hum for Arizona, but worth noting was that Matt Leinart was a bit better than Brian St. Pierre in the battle for that team’s backup job. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall didn’t do himself any favors by running for only 2.7 yards per carry on nine attempts, but wideouts Shaun McDonald and Limas Sweed were productive. Sweed has big-time potential, but he was useless last season, and needs to step up this year. Still, he’s someone fantasy owners may want to keep in the back of their minds.

Oakland 31, Dallas 10: Dallas wideout Sam Hurd made the most noise by far in the team’s wide receiver battle, as he caught five passes for 79 yards, while no other wideout caught more than one pass. Darren McFadden used a 45-yard rumble to amass 63 yards on just four carries, showing the type of explosiveness that makes fantasy owners believe he can have a breakout campaign.

St. Louis 23, NY Jets 20: Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez played just one series, but that was enough for him to complete three of his four throws for 88 yards and be named the starter in the team’s next preseason game. For the Rams, the early battle for the team’s No. 2 running back job is being led by Samkon Gado, who ran for 93 yards, including one 77-yard touchdown gallop.

Minnesota 13, Indianapolis 3: Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good by completing 10 of his 13 passes for the Vikings, while the man he is battling for the starting QB job, Tarvaris Jackson, completed only seven of his 15 throws. Rookie runner Donald Brown started off nicely for the Colts, running the ball five times for and excellent 58 yards, including a 38-yard tote.

New Orleans 17, Cincinnati 7: Cedric Benson did what Cedric Benson always does - ran for under 4.0 yard per carry. His 28 yards on eight carries (3.5 ypc) does little to inspire those that have been burned by the former first-round bust in the past. Speaking of busts - okay, possible busts - Reggie Bush continues to show he makes an outstanding slot receiver for a running back, carrying three times and gaining 15 feet.

San Francisco 17, Denver 16: Disaster, thy name is Kyle Orton. Fantasy owners will need to see more than three interceptions in 16 passes from the new Broncos signal-caller before embracing him on their roster. So too will Denver fans. For the Niners, tight end Vernon Davis proved he could get downfield a bit, with two receptions for 41 yards.

Detroit 27, Atlanta 26: Not much happened to speak of for the Falcons, besides losing to Detroit after being up by nine with under 3:00 to play. Preseason or not, that’s a poor way to start. A much better way to start is by doing what Michael Turner did, running for 63 yards and a score on six carries. Matthew Stafford was a bit up and down for the Lions, connecting on half of his 14 passes, throwing for a score but also tossing a pick.

Buffalo 27, Chicago 20: Not the greatest of beginnings for Jay Cutler. While he wasn’t as terrible as the man he switched teams with, he completed just five of his 10 passes and threw an awful interception, chucking the ball in the air after feeling some pressure. Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards was very good, however, despite not having Terrell Owens. He completed each of the 10 throws he made.

Green Bay 17, Cleveland 0: Some sizzling quarterback race in Cleveland. Brady Quinn did complete seven of his 11 passes, but for only 68 yards, and he also tossed an interception. Derek Anderson, meanwhile, threw twice and completed one - to the wrong team. All the Green Bay running backs did a nice job, and it was good to see Brandon Jackson - a must-handcuff to Ryan Grant - deliver 41 yards on eight carries.

Tennessee 27, Tampa Bay 20: Little seemed to have been done to uncoil the quarterback situation in Tampa, as Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman and Luke McCown were each okay. For the Titans, rookie wideout Kenny Britt started off with a bang, with five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. He’s definitely someone to look out for in the rookie wide receiver class.

Houston 16, Kansas City 10: Someone needs to be the backup and possible handcuff to Steve Slaton, and both Ryan Moats and Chris Brown got off to solid starts. Moats ran the ball 10 times for 52 yards, while Brown carried it six times for 25 yards and a score. On the Chiefs side, not much could be taken away from the start Matt Cassel had, as he completed just two of his five throws.

Seattle 20, San Diego 14: Neither T.J. Duckett nor Julius Jones ran for 4.0 yards per carry in what could be a sign of things to come this season in the Seattle running game. Then again, neither did LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproles in this contest that told very little about either team’s stars.

How Scheme Changes Affect Fantasy Performance (Part 1 of 4)

Friday, August 14th, 2009

When you think of the big offseason moves, the first ones that come to mind are TO to Buffalo, Cutler to Chicago, and Gonzales to the Falcons.  While all those are important personnel changes for their new teams, what may be just as important are the scheme (coaching) changes made throughout the league.  Including former interim coaches Tom Cable of Oakland and Mike Singletary of San Francisco, eleven teams will have new head coaches in 2009.  Not counting the vacant offensive coordinator positions in New England, Oakland, and Arizona, eight teams will have new offensive coordinators in 2009 and many of them will be bringing in different schemes than what was in place before.  This is the first part of a four-part series that details how knowing an offensive scheme can go a long way in predicting player performance.

Cleveland [HC: Mangini (Jets), OC: Daboll (Jets)]
The forecast of the Browns depends entirely on who’s playing quarterback.  If it’s Anderson then expect to see the 2009 Browns resembling the 2006-2007 Jets with Chad Pennington at quarterback as Mangini would use a conservative approach with the offense.  But if Quinn wins the job, seeing how his physical tools are similar to Brett Favre’s, expect the Browns to air it out more in ‘09 which means more touchdowns, but also more interceptions.
The backfields between the 2008 Jets and 2009 Browns are eerily similar.

Jamal Lewis becomes Mangini’s next 30-year-old running back to try to re-invigorate and Jerome Harrison, who averaged 7.2 ypc in ‘08, fills Leon Washington’s third down role.  The problem is that Jamal Lewis’ resurgent season happened two years ago and he enters 2009 with 740 more carries than what Jones entered 2008 with.  Don’t expect an increase across the board like Jones had, but as the definitive goal-line back, Lewis will certainly score more than the four touchdowns he had last year.  As far as the other former pro bowler on offense, Braylon Edwards, he cannot possibly be worse than he was last year.  He would be an absolute steal as a WR2 on your team so if he’s available in the mid-rounds then jump on him.  Without Kellen Winslow garnering the safety’s attention, and with a rookie lining up as the other receiver, Edwards will be double teamed more often than before.  But he still has the talent to be what Jerricho Cotchery was not-a consistent down the field receiver.  He may never score 16 touchdowns again in a season like he did in 2007 but I think the nearly 1300 yards he put up that season is attainable.

Early reports out of training camp are that Steve Heiden is starting at tight end and Mike Furrey is lining up opposite Edwards.  However, both those positions have young players in Martin Rucker and Brian Robiskie at TE and WR, respectively, ready to take up those roles.  The veterans may give way to their younger counterparts at some point during the season but currently, none of those four is worth putting in your lineup.

Kansas City [HC: Haley (Cardinals), OC: Gailey (Chiefs)]
Even though Kansas City retained offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, their offense is essentially starting over.  Gailey employed the spread offense to utilize QB Tyler Thigpen’s running ability and his team’s lack of talent.  Now with Matt Cassel at quarterback and with all plays going through Haley, the Chiefs will have a more traditional look on offense-if you consider three-receiver sets traditional.  Cassel’s biggest problems are his inabaility to avoid sacks and his lack of accuracy when throwing the deep ball.  That combined with a lesser talented receiving core mean that his numbers will dip in 2009.

Larry Johnson will undertake the Edgerrin James role of the unhappy running back.  But LJ still is a much better runner than what Edge ever was in Arizona.  He won’t come anywhere near the dominance he had in 2005-2006 but he should once again become a 1000 yard rusher, assuming he stays healthy.  Also, don’t forget about all the touchdowns Tim Hightower scored last year for Arizona (10).  Those scoring opportunities fall into the hands of Johnson and as with Braylon Edwards, LJ could be another steal of a draft pick.

2008 Receiving Targets
Veteran receivers Amani Toomer and Bobby Engram will be the second and third receivers, respectively, in Todd Haley’s base offense but neither offers much fantasy value at these points in their careers.  Haley also doesn’t think much of tight ends so Brad Cottam has minimal value except for occasional red zone looks.  The one receiver who will have an impact is Dwayne Bowe.  His physical features and skill set are most similar to Anquan Boldin among all of the Cardinals receivers.  Yet Bowe has more speed although that may somewhat be negated by Cassel’s inaccurate deep throw.  Nonetheless, Bowe will have plenty of reception opportunities as Kansas City will often be down late in games.  Common belief says receivers don’t truly break out until their third season and after Bowe posted 1000 yards in ’08, I can’t wait to see what he can do with some quarterback stability in 2009.