It seems that every year around this time we consider the futures of two NFL quarterbacks: Brett Favre, who tends to waffle on retirement until at least April or, last year, July; and Donovan McNabb, who is rumored to be traded constantly.

This year the latter rumor is very interesting to consider, partly because McNabb might be destined to replace Favre in Minnesota, or Warner in Arizona.

In Philadelphia, three household names might be elsewhere next season. McNabb tops the list, but he’s followed closely by long-time and oft-injured teammate Brian Westbrook and unorthodox quarterback Michael Vick.

Donovan McNabb has been pressed constantly to give us an update on what he expects to happen. His replies have thus far been vanilla.

Will you be in Philadelphia next season? “Why wouldn’t I be? I mean we’ve been going through this the last two, three years. I don’t want to be anywhere else but Philly. I don’t believe in starting somewhere and going somewhere else to finish your career. I believe in starting somewhere and finishing what you’ve started.”

What do you know about Brian Westbrook’s future? “He looks forward to getting back. All the talk people are saying retirement or whatever it may be, it’s all false.”

Will Vick be back for a second season? “Yes.”

In other words, if you talk to Donovan McNabb, all three players are going to be back and as good as ever.

Talk to a journalist, on the other hand, and you might get a different story. Chris Mortensen asked McNabb point blank whether he actually believed he was going to be back. McNabb didn’t miss a beat and asked Mort why he shouldn’t expect to be back.

McNabb has been through all the ups and downs in the NFL. He knows nothing is certain, but he also knows that we’ve been questioning his return to Philadelphia for the past three years now, ever since the team drafted Kevin Kolb in 2007. Since then, Kolb has started two games and thrown four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Quarterback of the future? Maybe. But the future isn’t now.

That said, the speculation certainly makes for a fascinating offseason storyline. Michael Vick showed fans flashes of being a game-changer in his limited role, spiking his value to Philadelphia‘s front office if the franchise choose to trade him. Brian Westbrook, on the other hand, missed seven games this season after concussions left him in haze. Will he return? It’s hard to say. Perhaps more intriguing, will he return to the Eagles? If he chooses to play again in 2010, the Eagles might request a pay-cut; should he refuse, he might have to take his talent and injuries elsewhere.

Westbrook hasn’t averaged fewer than four yards per carry in a season in his career. He only touched the ball 86 times this past season, but he still netted 455 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns. There are plenty of teams that would pay for that kind of production, history of injuries or not. After all, he only missed a combined four games in the previous three seasons. And concussions, while obviously serious in the long term, are not as much of a deal breaker as, say, a knee injury.

Michael Vick doesn’t have come with injury baggage, though. His baggage is of another kind. But, again, there are teams very willing to look past his history and at his performance on the field. He was used only sparingly in Philadelphia’s offense, but that didn’t stop him from showcasing his talent and passing for 86 yards and a touchdown and rushing for another 95 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers don’t exactly pop off the page, but when you consider he only handled 13 pass attempts and ran with it 24 times out of what was essentially a “gadget” formation, it’s enough to convince some teams he can still start at quarterback.

Consider the Redskins. Jason Campbell hasn’t proven he can be a starter or a winner in this league. Add to the equation a new head coach and different philosophy, and Campbell’s time may be up. The team can afford to get Vick and put him on the field to shake things up and increase the offense’s volatility. Of course, would the Eagles be willing to trade Vick to a division rival? Probably not.

So how about the Raiders? Vick is fast with a strong arm, the two key indications of an ideal Raiders prospect. Jamarcus Russell certainly seems to be a bust at this stage, so why not give Vick a shot to lead the team somewhere? He complements the rest of the offense - bad O-line, fast receivers, explosive running back - so if Oakland can put together a trade package, don’t be surprised to see Vick in silver and black.

Just don’t expect the Eagles to deal McNabb and keep Vick around. There are plenty of McNabb haters in Philadelphia, but Andy Reid isn’t one of the team. He wants his quarterback around in 2010, and it’s hard to find any fault in his logic: McNabb is coming off a season in which he passed the ball for 3,553 yards and 22 touchdowns. Overall, his numbers the past two seasons have been the best statistically of the past five years.

Whatever happens this season, stay tuned. The Eagles need to consider trading three players at key positions, and where they end up will have big implications for 2010.

Now that we’re about at the halfway point of the NFL and fantasy football season – if there is such a thing in a 17-week season – it seems like a good time to take a look at the leaders at each position in terms of fantasy points to see how things have shaped up to this point. We’ll start, naturally, at the quarterback position.

QUARTERBACKS

Aaron Rodgers is tied for third in touchdown passes in the league, and just sixth in the NFL in passing yards, so how could he be the No. 1 player at his position in fantasy points? The answer is really quite simple: running the ball. His 214 rushing yards are more than any other quarterback, and his two rushing scores are tied for first. As far as surprises go, seeing Kurt Warner below the likes of Carson Palmer and just ahead of Eli Manning qualifies, as most fantasy owners figured he’d be much further up in the rankings. But Warner wouldn’t even be that high up if not for his 30-point game last week – his first of the season with more than 20 points.

RUNNING BACKS

The cluster at the top of the running back position is among players that everyone figured would be there. Maurice Jones-Drew has almost 200 fewer rushing yards than Chris Johnson, but with 11 touchdowns, he also has nearly double Johnson’s total of six. There’s no need to look far if you’re searching for surprises. Ray Rice is fourth in large part due to his 436 receiving yards – which is over 100 yards more than any other running back in the NFL. And Ricky Williams in the top-10? Who’d of thunk it?

WIDE RECEIVERS

The wideout position is the one where things have pretty much gone according to plan. Vincent Jackson’s ascendance to the top shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise considering his career arc up until this season, and the giant steps forward he had been progressively making. Miles Austin is really the only name you’ll see on this leader board that was not projected to be there. Many fantasy owners thought he had a chance to make headway into fantasy relevance this season, but to explode the way he has in just the last few games is a unique occurrence.

TIGHT ENDS

Many fantasy owners had about given up on Vernon Davis, and for good reason. He was a top-10 pick with phenomenal physical abilities who was underachieving. But that all changed this season, and he’s the No. 1 scorer in fantasy points at his position, due mostly to his seven touchdowns, which leads all tight ends. Brent Celek was a very solid sleeper before the season, and that’s paid off for those who heeded that advice. Someone who hasn’t paid off, however – Jason Witten, who is actually tied with Chris Cooley for 15th in fantasy points, because he hasn’t found the end zone often enough. Or found it at all, really, as he has just one touchdown reception on the season.

• Since Week One of the 2008 season, a span of 19 games including the playoffs, the Colts have allowed only six passing touchdowns while intercepting 17 passes.  Indianapolis has also allowed fewer passing yards this season than any other team.  If there ever was a week to bench Kurt Warner, this would be it.

• If you have Chester Taylor in a PPR league, this is the week to start him.  San Francisco has allowed 23 receptions, 179 receiving yards, and 1 receiving TD to running backs alone thru the first two weeks.  The 49ers have allowed 51 receptions total so the 23 by running backs accounts for nearly half of all receptions allowed.  Also, Percy Harvin missed practice on Thursday and Friday due to migraine headaches and may not play Sunday and that would likely increase Harvin’s touches even more.

• Zach Miller of the Raiders is normally a must-start at tight end but this may be the week to sit him.  The Broncos have allowed only three receptions for 32 yards and no touchdowns to tight ends this year.

• The Tennessee Titans have allowed a microscopic 1.8 yards per carry to speed backs Willie Parker and Steve Slaton.  Accordingly, those two are tied for second in stuffed rushing attempts with seven each while Tennessee’s own Chris Johnson has been stopped the most times behind the line of scrimmage – eight.

• If Anthony Bryant does play for Tampa Bay, he should not be starting on your team.  It’s not because of his knee problem, but rather because of the team he is facing.  The Giants are only giving up 80 yards per game to wide receivers and have not allowed a touchdown to a receiver this year.

• For IDP leagues, avoid playing Julius Peppers this week as Dallas is the only team that has yet to allow a sack to an opposing defensive lineman.  Tony Romo can thank Flozell Adams and his “kick-saves” for that.

• After hearing that the Jets will be down one starting cornerback and their nickel back in Sunday’s game vs. Tennessee, you may be tempted to start Kerry Collins.  But the great equalizer comes in the form of old Mother Nature.  There is a 90% chance of rain during game time in New York on Sunday and historically, Collins has struggled in both the rain and snow.  In 11 career games in some form of precipitation, Collins has thrown fewer touchdowns, 12, than interceptions, 15.

• On the other side of the ball, the Titans pass defense has struggled immensely this season.  The loss of former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has seemed to really affect the communication among the defensive backs.  Against opposing wide receivers, Tennessee has allowed the most receiving yards, the second most receiving touchdowns, and the third most receptions.  These are common problems for teams that lose long time coordinators (like Tampa Bay and Baltimore) but they are usually ironed out later in the season.  For the time being, take advantage of this and if you have Jerricho Cotchery, he is a solid WR2 for this week.

Here’s a quick rundown of the 2009 Preseason Week 3 Friday games:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots are clearly already running on all cylinders. Everything they try is working and their drives are consistent and have the feeling that they can’t be stopped. It really smells like 2007. Tom Brady looks great and clearly has the connection with Moss back in full force with two easy touchdowns.  Randy Moss is looking really solid and is getting tons of touches and 2 easy touchdown passes from Brady. When in doubt, throw it up to Moss and let him go up and get it.  Joey Galloway is looking like a good #2 target and will have lighter coverage with Moss attracting double teams again. Wes Welker did not have a catch in the first half…Galloway maybe taking some of his load?  Looks like Fred Taylor snd Laurence Maroney will be splitting carries. I don’t see any RBs having big TD numbers, but will likely get some garbage yards at the end of games, running out the clock. Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk did not play. Patriots defense looks as good as they usually are.

Tom Brady landed awkwardly on his throwing shoulder on the last play of the half. After watching him get his knee blown up last year, this strong hit doesn’t frighten me a lot, but it wasn’t something you want happening to your top QB. Some have since described it as devastating, but I’m not sure that applies here. If he were out for the season maybe, but it doesn’t appear that way. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if we learn that he has some minor injury to his rotator cuff. The way he landed has put a couple of QBs on ice with rotator cuff injuries. Only time will tell if he’s significantly injured.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Redskins are still putting all the pieces together but looked ok against the Patriots defense. Jason Campbell is looking good, with increased confidence and certainty in his throws. He’ll be a bit better than last year now that he’s had two back to back seasons in the same offense.  Santana Moss is looking good, making nice catches, short and long and is clearly the favorite of Jason Campbell.  Campbell seems to like Malcom Kelly for different reasons, he’s a big body, and a good end zone target.  Chris Cooley had few passes thrown his way, but did have a long reception.  Clinton Portis looked average with few holes to run through and not a lot of yards. Looks like Marcus Mason is now the goal line back and could steal TDs from Portis.  The Redskins defense is looking good. I think teams will have trouble with the Redskins defense.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Green Bay offense looks very smooth and has most of the kinks worked out. They seem to have a confidence as they drive down the field…that’s hard to stop.  Aaron Rodgers is looking comfortable and extremely sharp. Showed some pretty good mobility out of the pocket. Threw some great long bomb passes too. Greg Jennings looked good, but got creamed coming across the middle and left the field. Donald Driver looks good…had a great long bomb catch. Ryan Grant looked pretty good, solid running, nice holes by the o-line, and looks like he’s going to get the goal line carries too.  Packers defense is looking pretty good and is good at creating turnovers by stripping and grabbing at the ball. They also have a good pass rush and caused Warner to fumble the ball and returned it for a TD. Overall a very solid performance by the Packers.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Arizona offense looked pretty good, not running on all cylinders yet, but has most of the parts working well. The Packers defense made it hard for them to get into sync.  Kurt Warner looks good, getting the ball out very fast and getting enough protection from the o-line. Had a couple bad throws later in the first half. He looks like a statue and takes some huge hits when there is a good pass rush….that worries me…especially with his hip surgery in the off season.  Tim Hightower looks good…had a nice long run.  Beanie Wells finally got on the field for a few series and looked very good. He’s got great size, strength, and he’s quicker than you think. He scored a beautiful TD from 20 yards out with some great cuts, avoiding tackles, and amazing agility for someone his size. He’s something special for sure…nice to see it on the field.  Larry Fitzgerald looks as good as ever…he’s getting a lot of touches. Overall the Cardinals have some more work to do, but you can see that they have all the pieces now to be more balanced offensive attack. Their Defense still looks like it has more work to do, so we may have an offensive powerhouse in Arizona with a poor defense, which is the combination you look for when picking high scoring offensive fantasy players.

Kurt Warner was one of the NFL’s most prolific quarterbacks throughout the 2008 season, leading the Arizona Cardinals to the postseason and eventually the Super Bowl. Warner’s season wasn’t enough to convince most fantasy owners to draft him higher than the fifth round this year, however, due mostly to questions concerning his health, especially when combined with his age.

Here are the ten facts and factors you should consider when thinking about Kurt Warner this year.

(1) Let’s start with the health: Warner has played three complete seasons in his career – 1999, 2001, and last season. That makes fantasy players a little bit skittish, especially when combined with a hip surgery he underwent in March. Reports suggest it will be 12 months before he’s fully recovered from the injury, making him a fantasy gamble of sorts. He said August 6th that he was at 85 percent, so be sure to keep his injury status in mind when considering him.

(2) Warner hasn’t missed a game since filling in for Matt Leinart week 3 of the 2007 season. He hasn’t started all those games and he missed significant playing time in a couple, but it remains that he’s played 34 consecutive games.

(3) Statistically speaking, last season was the third best season of Warner’s career. He finished with 598 attempts (1st - personal high), a 67.1 percent completion rate (3rd best) 4,583 yards (2nd best), and 30 touchdowns (3rd best).

(4) Though he passed for more touchdowns in 2008 than the season before, Warner posted a significantly lower touchdown percentage: 6.0 in 2007 vs. 5.0 in 2008. For what it’s worth, Ken Whisenhunt was calling the plays in 2007, a role he will resume this season.

(5) Warner’s completion percentage last season — 67.1 — was second in the NFL to Chad Pennington. Warner also finished 3rd in passing attempts, 2nd in passing yards, and 3rd in passing touchdowns.

(6) Only Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Peyton Manning have thrown more passing touchdowns than Warner the past two seasons. Both Brees and Manning have also played more games the past two seasons.

(7) Warner is third in the NFL in passing yards per game the past two seasons, behind only Drew Brees and Tom Brady. He’s averaged 266.7 yards per game during that span.

(8) The Cardinals’ gunslinger hasn’t been perfect, though. He’s thrown 31 interceptions the past two seasons, placing him fifth in the NFL behind Brett Favre (who knew?), Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Jay Cutler.

(9) In seasons he played at least 16 games, two things have held true: Warner has never thrown for fewer than 4,353 yards or 30 touchdowns. In other words, when he’s healthy and starting he’s one of the best options in fantasy football.

(10) Warner has a career 8-2 record in the postseason with a Super Bowl win and two Super Bowl losses. But how has he been in the fantasy postseason lately? Assuming your championship is week 16, these numbers are probably relevant:

• in week 16 of 2006, Warner was 9-of-13 for 105 yards
• he threw 3 touchdowns each game between weeks 14-16 of 2007
• he also threw 5 interceptions week 14 and 1 more week 15
• he averaged 313 yards per game during the three week span
• during weeks 14-15 of 2008 he averaged 275 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception
• week 16 of 2006: 369 passing yards and 3 touchdowns
• week 16 average the past two seasons: 68 passing yards
• week 16 of 2008: was 6-of-18 for 30 yards

We Americans love our projections, whether they are being used for something as salient as election night or in a relatively less important way, like for fantasy football (shameless plug alert: get 2009 NFL player projections from Sports Data Hub via Twitter).

However, projections can be tricky, and are best used as part of a more engaging process of collecting information. Nobody out there projected Steve Slaton to run for nearly 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns last season, or for Antonio Bryant to accumulate over 1,200 receiving yards after not playing the previous year. So let’s travel down the unbeaten path for a while and make some rather bold predictions about the upcoming fantasy season. Just remember, use these as guidelines, and hopefully we’ll steer you in the right direction.

Shonn Greene Will Lead NFL Rookies in Touchdowns: What you see in the graph below are Thomas Jones’s touchdown runs per week over the past three seasons. You may notice something of a disparity there. In 32 games in 2006 and 2007, Jones scored in only six separate contests. Then last year, out of nowhere, he put the ball in the end zone in nine separate weeks. Which one looks like the aberration? Jones, at age 31, is due for the inevitable running back slowdown, and Leon Washington is better suited as a third-down back for the Jets. Enter the 230-pound Greene, a rookie from Iowa. He’ll become the team’s primary goal-line threat, and this year’s version of Le’Ron McClain, someone new Jets head coach and former Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is quite familiar with.

Matt Leinart Will Become Fantasy Relevant: Forget all this hubbub about Leinart in a battle with Brian St. Pierre for the backup job to Kurt Warner in Arizona; Leinart will be second on the depth chart. There are red flags surrounding Warner this season, entirely due to his health. He’s 38 years old, and last season was the first time since 2001 he played in 16 games. He had off-season hip surgery, and the malady is still bothering him, and will limit his play in the preseason. At some point during the year, Warner will be sidelined, and Leinart will take over the offense.

Steven Jackson Will be No. 1 in Fantasy Points at the End of the Season: Jackson is one of the most dynamic players in football, though he’s gone somewhat unnoticed because he’s wallowed in the dregs of a dysfunctional Rams team and front office that mustered just five wins the past two seasons. He suffered injuries during both of those years and missed four games in each of them. However, in 2005 and 2006, Jackson missed just one of the team’s 32 contests, and racked up a total of 3,700 yards and 26 touchdowns. This season, he is the unquestioned offensive leader of a club that has seen it’s No. 1 receiver, Donnie Avery, already go down for what could be the start of the regular season. He’ll be relied on heavily to move the chains and put the ball in the end zone, and will succeed behind a new, more rugged offensive line.

Eli Manning Will Not Throw for 20 Touchdowns: Manning the younger has thrown for at least 20 scores in each of the past four seasons, but his totals have fallen each of the past three years. The loss of Plaxico Burress cannot be understated. In the six games, including the playoffs, that Burress was not with the Giants last year, Manning tossed only three scores and six interceptions and threw for at least 200 yards just once. While first-round pick Hakeem Nicks could very well become a star, rookie wideouts in the NFL very rarely come in and make a huge impact. The rest of the wide receiver corps is underwhelming at best, so expect the Giants to put an even bigger emphasis on the running game inside the red zone, with fullback Madison Hedgecock leading the way for the talented triumvirate of Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw and rookie Andre Brown.

• Joseph Addai has had one 100-yard rushing game in the Colts last 24 regular season games.
• For those in leagues that reward long runs (40+ yards) – Clinton Portis has not had a rush of at least 40 yards in his last 919 carries, dating back to Week 13 of the 2005 season.
• Jerious Norwood has 297 career carries and has 6 runs over 40 yards.
• In 641 career touches, Adrian Peterson (Minn.) has lost seven fumbles, or one fumble lost per every 91.5 touches.
• LaDainian Tomlinson has not lost a fumble in his last 984 touches.
• In his two starts since 2007 replacing Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson has 287 total yards and has averaged 5.1 ypc.; Lynch will miss the first 3 games of the season.
• Peyton Manning has had as many rushing touchdowns (8) as Julius Jones has had over the last three seasons.
• For his career during the months of September, October, and November, Tony Romo has thrown 67 touchdowns and 27 interceptions.  In December Romo has thrown 14 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.
• The only players who had more rushing yards than Kevin Smith’s 671 over the last 8 weeks of the 2008 season were DeAngelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Steve Slaton, and Thomas Jones.
• As everyone fawns over Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald; don’t forget about Steve Smith (Car.) as all he did was lead the NFL in receiving yards per game with 101.5.

• The only tight end with more receiving yards than Zach Miller’s 457 over the last 8 games of the season was Tony Gonzales.
• Besides the yards and TDs, another reason why Peyton Manning is the most consistent fantasy performer is his lack of fumbles.  Manning has lost only 7 fumbles over the last 7 years.
• Kurt Warner lost 7 fumbles last season alone.
• In two years in New England, Randy Moss has a yards per reception average of 15.0 with Tom Brady and Matt Cassel at QB.
• In two years in Oakland, Randy Moss had a yards per reception average of 15.3 with Kerry Collins, Marques Tuiasosopo, Aaron Brooks, and Andrew Walter at QB.
• Through Week 13 Matt Ryan had thrown only 6 interceptions.  In games played after week 13 Ryan threw 7 interceptions.
• I’d hate to pile on Ryan again, but in 4 games vs. top-10 defenses in total yards allowed, Ryan had 3 TDs and 6 INTs.
• The Falcons will play 7 games vs. top-10 defenses in 2009.
• There were only 3 players who had at least 80 tackles and 8 sacks last year, two whom you might expect-James Harrison and DeMarcus Ware, and one you wouldn’t expect-Bradie James.  More on this statistic can be found in this blog.
• Robbie Gould has made more field goals (89) over the last three seasons than any other kicker, but he has never made one of at least 50 yards in his career in 128 attempts.

The NFL season is just around the corner which means fantasy football drafts are about to kick off after months of mock drafts. To help you out, Sports Data Hub’s Kyle Smith recently ranked the top 25 fantasy football quarterbacks. In an attempt to keep the conversation rolling while throwing in my two cents, the following is part one of my fantasy football quarterback rankings.

Enjoy!

1. Peyton Manning - You can’t go wrong with Peyton Manning. I may be the only fantasy writer ready to crown him the best of the quarterbacks, but my reasoning is simple: no one is more consistent. Manning stumbled through the first half of last season after missing preseason, yet he still finished strong enough to win the league MVP award. This season he’s healthy and ready to roll. He’s a lock to finish with 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. My projections: 4,200 passing yards and 32 touchdowns.

2. Drew Brees - Brees is a media darling and the unanymous number one pick among quarterbacks in mock drafts, but I’m not ready to draft him before Manning. He had a stellar season last year, and his numbers were great the year before. It just seems as if everyone is forgetting that 2009 was the first time in his career he threw for more than 28 touchdowns. I don’t think he’s far behind Manning, and it might be more appropriate if I ranked them “1a” and “1b.” All the same, I’ll take Manning first any time.

3. Tom Brady - An argument may be made that Brady is higher than this, but I’m not buying it just yet. Again, it seems like a situation in which no one acknowledges that Brady wasn’t throwing 30 touchdowns per season before his record setting 2008 season. I believe he has the potential to finish as the top quarterback, but personally, I believe the Patriots will the run the ball more this season than some suspect.

4. Aaron Rodgers - Talk to enough Packers fans about Aaron Rodgers and you’ll come away with two distinct opinions. Some think he was good last season, but they would still take Favre any day; others readily acknowledge that last season was an amazing one. Think about it: no quarterback dealt with more pressure and handled it more admirably than Rodgers. 4,038 yards and 28 touchdown passes seesm like a good way to earn fans’ respect. He has the tools and teammates to repeat those numbers or, if all goes well, improve upon them.

5. Kurt Warner - It doesn’t seem to me that Kurt Warner is getting enough respect from fantasy football players. Clearly his age didn’t affect him last season, and I see no reason it would this year. The offense is as talented as ever, perhaps even more so with the addition of Chris Wells. The only conceivable worry is over the absence of offensive coordinator Todd Haley, but even that is unfounded. Ken Whisenhunt called the plays in 2007 and Warner’s numbers were stellar that season. Expect another great year from Warner, someone I’m willing to crown as one of the best pure passers in NFL history.

6. Tony Romo - Had Romo played 16 games last season he would have easily finished with 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. The biggest issue he faces this season is the absence of Terrell Owens, but Roy Williams should fill in well and keep the passing game excelling. Romo is well undervalued when you consider he was the second best fantasy quarterback in 2007, the year Tom Brady lit up the NFL, and would have been in the top five in 2008 had he played a complete season. Expect great value out of him this year.

Update: Read part 2, part 3, and part 4 now!

The NFL is back. This weekend, training camp got underway for the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles, and during the upcoming week, the remaining 30 teams will begin their preparation for the season. As such, fantasy football drafts will take place en masse over the next month or so. Let’s take a look at the top-30 gunslingers for the upcoming season. For a reference point, the graph below shows the top-15 quarterbacks from last season in terms of fantasy points.

1. Drew Brees: A no-brainer. Brees was the only QB with over 5,000 passing yards last season, and he tied Philip Rivers for the lead in TD passes with 34.

2. Peyton Manning: The epitome of consistency, which is gold in fantasy football. Manning has thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards just one time since his second year in the league, and has never tossed fewer than 26 touchdowns.

3. Tom Brady: A legitimate argument can be made to place him higher, but that 50-touchdown season won’t be repeated, and you have to be at least slightly concerned about anyone coming back from a knee injury like the one he did. Then again, he did have time to recover with a Victoria’s Secret model caring for him, which probably expedited the healing process.

4. Aaron Rodgers: It was easy to overlook Rodgers last season because the Packers were not contenders, but he was fourth in the league with 28 touchdown passes, has a plethora of talented wideouts, and oh yeah, ran for 200 yards, and made four trips to the end zone on foot.

5. Tony Romo: Missing three games hurt his yard total, which is why he was only in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy scoring in 2008, but he was still fifth in the league with 27 scoring throws.

6. Philip Rivers: Rivers likely won’t repeat the career year he had last season, when he found the end zone 34 times, but at least 25 is more than reasonable to expect in 2009.

7. Kurt Warner: Injuries are the biggest concern, or he’d be higher on the list. The 38-year-old played in 16 games last season for the first time since 2001, and just the third time in his entire career.

8. Donovan McNabb: Threw more than 20 touchdowns last season for the first time since 2004, and just the fourth time in his 10-year career. He also had the fewest rushing yards of any season that he’s played in at least 10 games.

9. Jay Cutler: He comes to a new offense, and one that does not have nearly the weapons he had in Denver. That, along with a better defense that will not force him to throw so often, will cut into his numbers.

10. Carson Palmer: A potential under-the-radar pick, Palmer is without T.J. Houshmandzadeh for the first time in his career. Yet he still has some solid weapons, and before getting hurt last season, was coming off three straight campaigns of at least 26 touchdown throws.

11. Matt Cassel: Can Cassel accomplish the same things in K.C. that he did in New England without Randy Moss?

12. Matt Schaub: Fantasy owners are just waiting for him to blow up, as dynamic playmakers surround the former Virginia star. Now, if he can only stay healthy.

13. Ben Roethlisberger: The civil suit for sexual assault is troublesome beyond the scope of fantasy football, but he’s been overrated in that sense anyway due to one big season.

14. Matt Ryan: Ryan should follow his solid rookie campaign with another step forward. Whether it’s a baby step or a leap will help determine how he’s viewed in the future.

15. Matt Hasselbeck: Plagued by a back injury last season, Hasselbeck is one year removed from the best season of his career.

Best of the Rest

16. David Garrard
17. Kyle Orton
18. Chad Pennington
19. Eli Manning
20. Brett Favre
21. Jake Delhomme
22. Joe Flacco
23. Jason Campbell
24. Trent Edwards
25. Marc Bulger
26. JaMarcus Russell
27. Shaun Hill
28. Kerry Collins
29. Brady Quinn
30. Daunte Culpepper

Everyone who has played fantasy football has, at one time or another, drafted someone who they had high hopes for, but who turned out to be a bust. And when the realization comes that the player who was supposed to be leading you to a fantasy championship has instead sunk you, a pang of frustration lies in the pit of your stomach, even if just for a moment. If you don’t want that to happen to you in 2009, there are a few players to be highly wary of when your drafts approach.

QB Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals: He was superb last season, throwing for more than 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. One of the reasons for his success was that he played in all 16 games for the first time since 2001, and just the third time in his career. The graph below shows his struggles from a fantasy standpoint up until the last two seasons. The former MVP has a lengthy injury history, one that caused his time in St. Louis to come to an end, as he simply could not hold onto the ball anymore due to a thumb malady. And at 38 years old, his risk for further injury is high. There were also changes in the Cardinals coaching staff, as Todd Haley left his post as offensive coordinator to become the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, Arizona no longer has a true offensive coordinator, instead utilizing running game and passing game coordinators.

RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets: Running backs over the age of 30 - Jones will be 31 when the seasons starts - should frighten all fantasy owners, even backs in as good of physical shape as Jones seemingly is. He went from scoring two total touchdowns in 2007 to 15 last season, which was easily a career high. It’s impossible to expect him to repeat that type of year, especially with Leon Washington and third-round pick Shonn Greene in the mix for carries.

WR Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: After being completely out of football for the 2007 season, Bryant returned with aplomb last year, hauling in 83 passes for nearly 1,300 yards and seven scores. Bryant had shown flashes of talent before, but could never put it all together. Now, he has a new quarterback, though nobody knows who it will be, and the offensive-minded Jon Gruden was replaced as head coach by the defensive-minded Raheem Morris. It’s difficult to spend a relatively high draft pick on someone with such uncertainties surrounding them.