(After reading this, see my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

There is no question that if given the chance, I would take Ladainian Tomlinson over Adrian Peterson.  Why?  Because LT has history on his side.  But even if he didn’t, he has more opportunity to produce than Peterson does does.

Before getting into the differences, it is enlightening to examine the similarities.  First, both running backs are highly talented.  Both have the ability to not only run the ball, but are excellent pass catchers.  Second, they each have a top-rate offensive line behind which to run (no changes from last year’s starting lines).  Third, both teams have about the same strength of schedule when considering the rush defense of the teams they will face.  In fact, both will face the Colts, Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons.  Fourth, of their first five games, three are away.  Finally, they both have their bye week right in the middle of the season.  If you truly want to compare who is better, this is the season to do it.

Now for the differences all of which support my conclusion that LT should be taken over Peterson. 

- First, LT has a much better quarterback (you can easily compare their performance head-to-head using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool), which prevents the defense from focusing all of its energies on stopping the running game.

- Second, LT’s first five games are against weak rush defenses, allowing on average 137.5 rushing yards and one rushing TD per game.  Peterson’s first five games are against rush defenses allowing on average 103 rushing yards and ½ rushing TD per game.  Momentum is everything.  LT will be off to a great start and Peterson will be seen as struggling.

- This leads to the third difference: with Peterson struggling, the Vikings are more likely to give runs to Chester Taylor, a dependable backup who has scored 13 TDs and run over 2000 yards over the past two seasons.  LT’s backup Michael Turner scored 3 TDs and ran just over 800 yards during the past two seasons and is now in Atlanta. (You can see both running back’s performance over the past 3 years using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool).  I am sorry to say that Darren Sproles is no Michael Turner.  LT said just last week, “In my mind I’m going to have to feel like I have to stay in the game.”San Diego Union-Tribune, July 31, 2008.

- Fourth, this is LT’s second year under Head Coach Norv Turner and it took LT about 4 games last year to get acclimated.  This year everyone is on the same page.

- Finally, it is the final three games that count in fantasy, and while the difference is not as dramatic as the first five games, LT still has the edge with the last three facing rush defenses allowing on average 128 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.  Peterson will face rush defenses allowing on average 113 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.

While I do not believe AP will regress during his second year, it is not uncommon for a rookie running back to have a great first year and then fail miserably during his second (e.g Frank Gore, Cadillac Williams).  Even if I could foretell Peterson would continue to play like a star, looking at each player’s situation and the teams they will be playing against, I would still take LaDainian.

(If you are still not sure, take a look at my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

(After you read this, take a look at my colleague’s argument for LT and decide who you’ll draft number one.)

When it comes to making the first overall pick in fantasy football, one wants to walk away with the best available player. This season the talking heads are torn between LaDainian Tomlinson - aka Mr. Consistency - and Adrian Peterson, the rookie phenom who finished second in the NFL in rushing yards last season.

Now, I love LaDainian Tomlinson. I think he’s a great running back who will finish among the top three overall this season. But I must admit, if I have the number one pick in the draft, I’m taking Adrian Peterson.

Conventional wisdom might suggest I do otherwise. After all, this is only Peterson’s second season whereas Tomlinson has been among the best in the NFL for many seasons. Still, I believe that Peterson’s potential is greater than Tomlinson’s and the risk-reward ratio is too tempting to pass.

Here’s why.

The Minnesota Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, perhaps the best. I don’t think anyone will argue that. That’s one of the key reasons for Peterson’s success last season, and Chester Taylor’s success in the past two. Also, this offensive line will be able to protect quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, someone who is almost certain to be better than he was last year.

That brings me to my second point: a lot of critics are going to say that the Chargers have a much better passing game than the Vikings, and that’s true, but only to a certain extent. Minnesota’s passing game has struggled in the past several years for two reasons: bad quarterbacks and bad receivers.

That changes this year.

Minnesota’s Tarvaris Jackson will be playing in his second complete season, meaning he has more experience than he did last season. He should be more comfortable in the pocket, and the running game, led by Peterson, will force defenses to think run before pass. That should open things up in the passing game. And did I mention that the team acquired the talented Bernard Berrian this offseason? Berrian instantly adds two things this offense has lacked: a deep threat and someone who defensive secondaries will actually need to pay attention to.

And let’s be perfectly honest: San Diego doesn’t have a great passing game, either. Philip Rivers was one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the NFL last season, frustrating fantasy owners with multiple “off” weeks and annoying opposing fans with his taunts along the way.

My third point is this: Peterson was phenomenal last season. He managed to rush for 1,341 yards on just 238 carries, averaging almost a full yard per carry more than Tomlinson. And he injured his knee during the second half of the season, meaning that he could have accomplished much more if he had stayed healthy. Imagine if he does this season. Scary.

Finally, here’s why it’s a risk to draft Tomlinson. The San Diego Chargers running back has carried the ball at least 313 times every season of his career. This season the team will rely on him even more with the absence of Michael Turner. And that’s just the number of carries he’ll handle. Let’s not forget that Tomlinson plays a very key role in the Chargers passing game; he’s also had at least 50 receptions every season of his career. In fact last season was the first time in his career he’s handled fewer than 390 touches in any given season.

This scares me because it means he’s close to breaking down. I realize that Tomlinson is a tough running back, one of the toughest in the NFL. But he’s not invincible. He has over 2,900 career touches; only two other active backs - Edgerrin James (29) and Warrick Dunn (32) - have more. Tomlinson will be asked to handle close to 400 touches this season, too. Will he be able to handle it?

Now, I don’t think you can go wrong with either player this year. But if you’re asking me which player to take first, I’m going to tell you who I think is poised for the best season. And that player is Adrian Peterson.

(Think I’m right? You should take a look at my colleague’s argument for LT and decide for yourself who you’ll draft number one.)

The NFL season is now fast approaching, which means your fantasy football draft is probably right around the corner. To better prepare you for that, I’m releasing my fantasy football pre-draft rankings. Remember, these are to be used as a guide on draft day, so feel free to move players around and stray from the list when draft day actually arrives.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - Year in and out, the league’s most consistent running back is LT. His greatest strength is his versatility, and the Chargers take full advantage of it every week of the season, giving him 20-25 touches per game. In turn, Tomlinson has lived up to his role as the best running back in the NFL. He’s led the league in rushing and touchdowns each of the past two seasons and is to fantasy runners what Peyton Manning is to fantasy quarterbacks. He has been a top five back each of the past six seasons. If ever there was a true “lock” in fantasy football, LT is it.

2. Adrian Peterson - Peterson comes in at number two for a couple reasons. First, he doesn’t have the versatility of Tomlinson, so he’s going to get the vast majority of his fantasy points when he’s carrying the football. Second, he was a bit inconsistent last season. Most of his yardage came in two games, while he also had six games with under 50 yards rushing and in seven games he failed to score a touchdown. Having said that, I think it should be pointed out that Peterson is a home-run back. He has massive upside, playing in an offense that loves to run the football, and he’s running behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. His potential is incredible, and the owner who drafts him will not likely be disappointed.

3. Steven Jackson - The Rams had one of the worst offenses in the NFL last season because injuries affected most of the roster. This season, a healthy St. Louis team is going to rebound with a much-improved offense. Jackson, who carried for just a tad over 1,000 yards last season in 12 games will likely return to his 2006 form, when he broke 1,500 rushing yards, 2,300 all-purpose yards, and scored 16 touchdowns. I’m not sure he’ll eclipse those numbers again, but he’ll come close, playing a centric role in an offense that wants to give him the football.

4. Brian Westbrook - Westbrook, who is one of the most underrated running backs in the NFL today, might be one of the smartest picks on draft day. Like Tomlinson, Westbrook is very versatile, though there is a difference: the Eagles throw him the ball more. And because Westbrook gains more yards per catch than he does per rush (like most backs) his yards from scrimmage is consistently high; two seasons ago he broke 1,900 yards and last season and last season he broke 2,100 yards. Plus, his yard per carry average has been solid (5.1 and 4.8 yards per carry the past two seasons) and he’s scored 11 and 12 touchdowns in 2006 and 2007, respectively. He’s especially a bonus in PPR leagues; he’s caught 167 passes in the past two seasons. The one reason for concern: his durability; he has yet to play 16 games in a season. But his production is still among the elites, making him a solid draft pick.

5. Joseph Addai - In his first season as the Colts full-time starter, Joseph Addai was pretty darn good last season. At least, for the first half of the season. Though his yardage wasn’t spectacular (1,072 rushing yards and 364 receiving yards), it was still solid. But where Addai shined was in scoring. In 15 games he scored 15 touchdowns, including three multiple-touchdown games. He did, however, have some trouble down the stretch last season when he appeared to be worn down from injuries. He failed to break 75 rushing yards from weeks 10-17, though his touchdowns kept fantasy owners from cursing too loudly. Expect more consistency (and production) from Addai this season, as he plays in one of the league’s best offenses.

LaDainian Tomlinson - The Pros

Tomlinson has been one of the most consistent fantasy football picks the game has come across in some time. He blends rushing and receiving to the point that he can make a case that he’s the league’s best player. He’s been the Chargers’ leading rusher for the past seven seasons (since he was drafted as a rookie, actually) and he’s finished lower than 2nd (twice he was 1st) on the team in receptions just once in the past seven seasons. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what your league scoring is: Tomlinson has been the best fantasy player in the NFL for a very long time now.

Also consider: he’s led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns each of the past two seasons and he’s finished the season with at least 1,750 yards from scrimmage six consecutive years, now. And did I forget to mention that he’s also thrown six touchdown passes in the past three seasons? His career passer rating is a sparkling 154.4 (league max: 158.3). Oh, and he set a scoring record in 2006 when he found the endzone 31 times.

Yeah, he’s a safe pick.

LaDainian Tomlinson - The Cons

Yes, there are a few cons to consider. First, let’s remember that Tomlinson has been the heart and soul of the Chargers’ offense for arguably seven years, and he’s missed just one start. That means he’s taken his shots and kept playing at a position where he’s taking a hit on almost every play, usually from more than a few players when he’s carrying the ball. And he’s handled at least 313 carries every season of his career (2365 career carries - 3rd among active players), meaning he may be headed for a breakdown.

Yes, it’s cliche to be concerned that a player may be headed for a breakdown every time they handle a lot of carries, but remember, Tomlinson has also caught his fair share of passes. Think about this: he’s had at least 375 touches every season of his career and at least 400 in 5 of his seven pro seasons. Plus, at age 29, Tomlinson (if he’s like most backs) has already peaked and should be seeing a drop in his numbers.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• Consistency, baby. No one’s been more consistent.
• Versatility. Tomlinson does it all - he runs the ball, catches the ball, and, you guessed it, throws the ball. And he does all three better than just about anyone else in football.
• He’s always a league leader. And he’s been the best in the NFL each of the past two seasons.

The Cons

• He may be on track for a breakdown. No one handles the ball as much as Tomlinson does on a yearly basis and stays healthy for an entire career.
• He may have peaked. The prime age for most running backs is around 26-27, so Tomlinson may soon be seeing a significant drop in production.

Adrian Peterson - The Pros

Peterson may have played just one season, but, boy, was it special. 2007’s NFL Rookie of the Year finished second in the league in rushing (behind LT), despite carrying the ball just 238 times. But though his totals might not show him being a league leader, no one averaged more yards per game than did Peterson who ran for about 95.8 per week.

This season the Vikings are better. Tarvaris Jackson has a season’s worth of experience under his belt, and he’s been dealt a new receiver to work with: Bernard Berrian, the best receiver Minnesota has seen since Randy Moss was catching passes from Daunte Culpepper. And as for that offensive line - it’s one of the best in the NFL.

And let’s not forget this detail: he started just nine games last year. Imagine if Peterson had carried 300 times last season, keeping his incredible 5.6 yard per carry average; he’d have led the NFL with nearly 1,700 yards rushing. Now imagine if he had carried the same number of times as league leader Clinton Portis (who handled 325); his yardage would have hit well over 1,800.

Peterson carried the ball 20+ times in only six games last season (much to the dissatisfaction of fans), and in two of those games he broke 200 yards on the ground. Imagine what will happen this season when coach Brad Childress cuts him loose for an entire season.

Defenses should already be afraid.

Adrian Peterson - The Cons

One season. That’s all we’ve seen from Peterson, meaning there’s no guarantee he repeats. And though I mentioned earlier that the Vikings improved their passing game, it bears mentioning that I have little faith in that facet of the offense. This is not a team that will burn defenses through the air; this is a team that will be forced to pound it out on the ground.

And as for Peterson’s numbers last year; on the season, they were brilliant. Game-by-game? Not so much. Peterson may have had six 100-yard performances, but it should be noted that more than 38 percent of his yards for the season came in two weeks. And his yard per carry average dipped below 4.0 in six games, bottoming out when he carried the ball 14 times for 3 yards (0.2 yard per carry average) in week 11. In fact, in his final four games of the season (weeks 11-14) he carried the ball 54 times for 154 yards and just two touchdowns; that’s less than three yards per carry.

Lastly, let’s not forget that Peterson had just 19 receptions last season, scoring just once when he caught a pass. He doesn’t have the versatility one might want from a fantasy back; especially if you’re in a PPR league.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• He was Rookie of the Year for a reason. He posted fantastic numbers, despite just nine starts.
• His supporting cast is improving. The Vikings added Bernard Berrian and Jackson will likely be better this season.
• The Vikings have a phenomenal offensive line. Matt Birk, Steve Hutchinson, and Bryant McKinnie are among the best at their respective positions.
  

The Cons

• He’s played just one season. Translation: we don’t know if he’s a one hit wonder or if he’s poised to be a consistent player. Speaking of which …
• He had some bad games. We’ll forgive him, but his inconsistency - especially near the end of the season - make me wonder if he’s worth the top pick in a fantasy draft.
• He wasn’t a factor in the passing game. He caught just 19 passes during the course of the season, so you may want to knock his value down a bit if you’re in a PPR league.

The Ultimate Verdict: If you’re looking for Mr. Consistency - someone I can promise will have a great season - go with LaDainian Tomlinson. He’s been the league’s best for a long time now, and you can’t go wrong. But if you want to shake things up and take a shot, pick Peterson. He won’t have a bad season and his upside is scary good.

My Pick: I’m a consistency guy, myself, so I’ll take Tomlinson. He’s the sure thing, someone who’s a lock to finish in the top three in fantasy scoring. But I’ll be watching out for the owner in my league who drafts Peterson number two. And if I was picking two and Peterson fell to me? I’d be psyched.