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Posts Tagged ‘LenDale White’

The Chance a Fantasy Owner Takes with a One-Dimensional Goal Line Back

Tuesday, November 25th, 2008

LenDale White, like all goal line backs, is in an odd position from a fantasy football perspective. He’s easy to love because his bulldozer mentality and extra bulk have led him to handling plenty of goal line carries and, more often than not, touchdowns. But because he is part of an ultra-successful running back by committee with rookie Chris Johnson, he doesn’t often get enough carries to score a substantial number of fantasy points in other categories.

One dimensional backs like White rarely earn a roster spot in fantasy football. Goal line backs are easy to get attached to because they frequent the endzone, but yards are as important and oftentimes more so. One touchdown is a quick 6 points, but not scoring is 0 points. In other words, goal line backs are typically all-or-nothing propositions.

Consider the example of teammates Chris Johnson (the “speed” back) and LenDale White (the “goal line” back). (Warning: the following arguments are laced with statistics; you are advised to read carefully.) The “speed” back handles more carries and averages more yards per touch because he handles the ball when the offense can afford diversify its play-calls. This leads to a much more impressive yard per carry average, and because the “speed” back also handles more carries, his overall rushing total is far superior. In the case of Johnson and White, the former carries more often by an approximate 4-3 ratio (183-127, through 11 games), yet the ratio between the two backs’ rushing yards is nearly 2-1, in favor of Johnson (833-469, through 11 games). Despite the fact that White’s rushing touchdown ratio is at an advantage greater than 2-1 (11-5), Johnson’s rushing yards alone make up the difference, assuming fantasy league scoring awards 1 point per 10 rushing yards and 6 points per touchdown. The two runners’ fantasy point totals in such a league would equate to 133.3 (Johnson) and 112.9 (White).

In addition to handling fewer carries during the course of a game, goal line backs are also at a disadvantage when the offense passes the ball. Ideally, on passing downs and other downs in which an offense has the option to either run or throw, it will put as much quickness and receiving ability on the field. In the case of Johnson and White, the disparity is particularly significant. Johnson has 33 receptions, 218 yards, and 1 receiving touchdown this season, while his teammate has just 4 receptions for 14 yards. If a hypothetical fantasy league awards 1 point per 10 yards receiving and 6 points per touchdown, those receiving totals equate to 27.8 additional fantasy points for Johnson and 1.4 points for White. Add the rushing and receiving totals together, and Johnson has 161.1 fantasy points and White has 114.3 fantasy points

In addition, I noted earlier (and highlighted) that goal line backs are oftentimes “all-or-nothing propositions.” By this I mean it’s great if a goal line back scores a lot of touchdowns over the course of a season, but fantasy owners live week-to-week. White has been an exception in the sense he scores most weeks (eight of eleven starts this season), but what about the games he doesn’t score? He doesn’t often rush for a significant number of yards (he’s been over 100 yards once; under 60 yards in nine games; and averages just 42.6 yards per game), nor does he play a role in the offense when Kerry Collins is throwing the ball. Consequently, not scoring a touchdown may mean the difference between 4 points and 10 points, based on his weekly average. To put it another way, if his yards live up to his season average but his touchdowns do not, his scoring is 60 percent lower than the average.

To clarify the above (with fewer numbers), consider: Chris Johnson, who splits a fair number of carries with White and doesn’t get as many goal line carries, has scored significantly more fantasy points over the course of the season and has been a safer week-to-week starter because it can be assumed he’ll get a decent number of touches (he averages 20 per week) and yards (about 95-96 per week) to lessen the effect of not scoring a touchdown in a given game.

Do not misinterpret, however. Touchdowns are an important aspect of fantasy football, and I am not trying to argue otherwise. What I am suggesting is that touchdowns are not the be all and end all of fantasy football. Consider the following analogy: it is wise to build a diverse stock portfolio to minimize risks; similarly, in fantasy football it’s wise to have players that get a score fantasy points in a variety of ways. Diversity, over the course of a season, always beats one-dimensionality.

Finding Fantasy Football Value in Tennessee

Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

The Tennessee Titans finally proved themselves Monday night on professional football’s biggest stage. At least that’s the perspective you’ll get if you watch ESPN or NFL Network these days. Never mind that the Titans were 6-0 going into the game; it was this victory over the now sub-.500 Colts that mattered. The truth is the Titans have quietly been beating opponents all season long. It just took seven weeks for most pundits and fans to respect that.

When we talk about Tennessee, which continues to sit atop the NFL at 7-0, we don’t often enough make glowing remarks about its offense. Indeed, it doesn’t at first glance appear to put up the same numbers as others in the league - the passing game is ranked 28th, for example – but it is nonetheless one of the best in the NFL and has been for some time now.

Consider: in four of its past five games the Titans offense has scored at least 30 points. The one game in that span in which it didn’t was week five at Baltimore, a team that has allowed more than 10 points in just one home game this season. Incidentally, Tennessee – which scored a gentleman’s 13 – was the team to do it.

After watching Tom Brady and every other quarterback in the NFL enjoy uncharacteristically impressive seasons last year, it’s easy to dismiss offenses that don’t have a quarterback who throws at least 20-25 touchdowns. But the Titans are proving that a team can not only survive in the NFL with a throwback offense – one that runs effectively and doesn’t turn the ball over – but it can thrive.

True, the Titans may not throw the ball often enough to make the receivers valuable in most fantasy football leagues, but the value of this offense lies in the running game. And what a running game it is.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White are quickly developing into the best pair of runners in the league this season. As change-of-pace backs go, these two complement each other perfectly. Johnson, who has rushed for 626 yards and four touchdowns this season, is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has plenty of speed. He’s fifth in the NFL in rushing yards right now and everyone in front of him has at least 14 – or eleven percent – more carries this season. And though it is often overlooked, it’s worth noting that Johnson hasn’t fumbled yet this season. None of the four backs ahead of him can claim that.

His partner in crime White doesn’t need to average much per carry. He’s the short yardage back, and he’s perfecting the art. With 10 rushing touchdowns this season, the Titans are using White similarly to the way USC did in his college days. He wasn’t as fast as Bush, but he could run between the tackles as well as anyone in the game. Thanks to this bruiser mentality, he rushed for dozens of touchdowns in college. Now he’s carrying that over to the NFL, putting himself on pace for well over 20 touchdowns this season. It’s worth noting that White has scored at least one touchdown in six of the Titans’ seven games this season, and in three he’s rushed for more than one.

Thanks to these two, the Titans have, not surprisingly, one of the league’s best statistical ground games. More importantly, however, the duo has made Tennessee’s offense something worth talking about.

Trend-Watching: Tennessee Titans RB LenDale White

Saturday, October 18th, 2008

LenDale White didn’t get as much attention in college as he deserved, despite scoring an incredible number of touchdowns. The reason? A speedy little back named Reggie Bush made a lot of big plays and look Gale Sayers-like on the field; tough to compete with that when you’re a 240 pound bruiser.

Still, as NFL runners go, LenDale White has been more successful than Reggie Bush as a professional. White’s run-between-the-tackles mentality is well-suited for his role as a goal line back (rookie Chris Johnson is the “lightning” in the thunder-lightning equation) and this season he’s continued to prove his worth.

White has five rushing touchdowns this season, making him a valuable back in most fantasy leagues, especially when considering he has played only five games this season and he’s been kept out of the endzone in just one game: week five against the Ravens. He also tends to put up a respectable total number of rushing yards each week - he averaged just under 50 in the first three weeks of the season - complementing his scores and ensuring that he was averaging about 10 fantasy points per week (assuming 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per touchdown).

The Titans are the only undefeated team in the NFL right now for two reasons: they have a great defense and a solid running game that keeps the ball in their control. White might not be on pace for 1,000 yards this season, but he could quietly finish with 15 or more touchdowns. He’s a great option as a RB3 in most leagues and a decent RB2 in some others (though PPR leauges can find better value elsewhere).

Key Points

  • White is on pace for 16 rushing touchdowns - last season’s leader, LaDainian Tomlinson, had 15
  • White is a great value because he scores so much, but he is on pace for more than 500 yards rushing
  • PPR league players will find him to be an okay bench player, but definitely not a starter

Fantasy Football Pre-Draft Rankings: RBs 21-25

Friday, August 1st, 2008

The NFL season is now fast approaching, which means your fantasy football draft is probably right around the corner. To better prepare you for that, I’m releasing my fantasy football pre-draft rankings. Remember, these are to be used as a guide on draft day, so feel free to move players around and stray from the list when draft day actually arrives.

This is part five in a series devoted to running backs. Part one is here. Part two is here. Part three is here. Part four is here.

If you missed it, be sure to check out the series devoted to quarterbacks, too. Part one (1-5). Part two (6-10). Part three (11-15). Part four (16-20).

21. Brandon Jacobs - In his first season as the New York Giants starting running back, Brandon Jacobs wasn’t disappointing. Though he missed five games with injury, he still managed to finish the season with over 1,000 yards rushing, averaging 91.7 yards per game (3rd in NFL). There were, however, a few pitfalls that affect his value. First, he scored just 6 touchdowns and rushed for only 4. It hurt last season that he didn’t get all of the team’s goal line touches - a surprise, considering Jacobs is a bruiser. Also, he doesn’t have much of an impact in the passing game and Ahmad Bradshaw will be stealing touches from him again this season. Having said that, I think he’ll regain his goal line duties this season and, if he stays healthy, will turn in a solid year as an RB2.

22. Selvin Young - A lot of fans are worried that Mike Shanahan is going to turn over the starting role to another running back at some point during the season if Young disappoints because the Broncos have had a history of switching backs. Don’t be. Young fits Denver’s system perfectly and did a fine job as the starting back in his appearances last season. Keep in mind: even though the Broncos struggled on offense last season, the team still managed to have a top ten running game. The team is going to be much-improved this season, and the running game is going to remain very important to that success. Young is one of the most undervalued backs available, someone who can turn in a top 10 fantasy season in this offense if he stays healthy.

23. LenDale White - LenDale White actually proved himself to a solid running back in Tennessee last season, surprising a lot of critics including myself. His yard per carry average wasn’t great (3.7) but he handled enough carries (303) that he was able to make an impact. He also scored 7 touchdowns, making him a pretty good option. He didn’t play a role in the passing game, unfortunately. Still, he was pretty solid and there’s something to be said for that. He had five 100-yard games and 10 games with at least 60 yards, spreading his touchdowns across seven games. I believe he’ll continue to improve this season, scoring more frequently and perhaps rushing for more yards.

24. Willie Parker - “Fast” Willie Parker carried for 1,316 yards last season and finished in the RB2 range in scoring. What happened? Well, his touchdown total plummeted - from 16 to 2 - and he still played a very limited role in the team’s passing game. The fact that the Steelers added Rashard Mendenhall doesn’t improve his value, either. Mendenhall is expected to be the team’s goal line back - think Maurice Jones-Drew’s role in Jacksonville. Parker remains a top running back from the stance that he’ll gain a lot of yards, but his lack of scoring makes him a lower-end RB2 or a solid RB3.

25. Edgerrin James - I’m going to be blunt here: I won’t be drafting Edge this season. Nothing against the Cardinals running back, but there are just too many factors working against him. First, he turned 30 this year. The universally accepted theory is that running back’s careers hit the wall at his age and it certainly wouldn’t surprise me. He’s handled a ton of carries in his career (more than any active player) and he’s carried more than 320 times each of the past four seasons. Honestly, I believe he’s poised for a breakdown - though I admit I hope I’m wrong - and do not advise drafting him as anything more than an RB3.