After the hugely disappointing playoff loss to the Cowboys, the Eagles are faced with two tough decisions pertaining to the futures of two of the most popular players in franchise history, Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook.  McNabb will turn 34 in 2010 and is due $11.2 million next season. The Eagles could elect to give the reigns to Kevin Kolb who is 8 years younger, over $10 million cheaper, and is entering the last year of his contract (as is McNabb). Just as coaches don’t want to be “lame ducts”, quarterbacks don’t either and McNabb could want out if he’s not offered a contract extension.
You may ask yourself, “Why would the Eagles want to get rid of McNabb after he had another stellar season (postseason notwithstanding)?  Well, if you take a closer look at McNabb’s numbers then you could see why some Philly fans want him gone.  You always want your QB to perform best when the game is on the line and despite McNabb having a passer rating of 92.9 for the season, it dipped to 76.1during the 4th quarter when the game was within 7 points in either direction.  During these situations McNabb did not throw any TDs in 48 pass attempts but did throw a pick and was sacked 4 times.  Another area where McNabb’s play declined was in the second half of games.  In the first half he posted a rating of 105.3 with 16 TDs and just 3 INTs.  But in the second half his rating dropped to 77.5 and he threw more INTs (7) than TDs (6).  He was also sacked three more times in the second halves of games despite taking 44 fewer snaps than in the first half.  For a city like Philadelphia that is seeking a hard-nosed, clutch guy to lead them to the Super Bowl; those statistics would seem to only reaffirm their belief that McNabb is not the guy that can win the big one.

The other big decision for Eagles’ brass is what to do with Brian Westbrook.  Some people expect him to retire after yet another injury-filled season but this one was the worst of all with him suffering two concussions in the span of a month.  Apart from the injury concerns, there are also the factors of age, production, and his salary cap value.  Westbrook will be 31 next season and he plays a position that hasn’t been to kind to 30+ running backs unless you’re a physical freak of nature (Thomas Jones) or you basically sat out for 3 seasons (Ricky Williams).  Westbrook is more of a speed back and that, along with a runner’s agility, are usually are the first things to go once you pass the 30-year-old mark.

The last factor regarding Westbrook’s future with Philadelphia is his contract.  He is due 7.25 million dollars next season compared to LeSean McCoy’s 2010 salary of $395,000.  There’s no way the Eagles are going to pay $7.25 million to someone that touches the ball <10 times a game and is a huge injury risk.  He would have to drastically reduce his salary in order to come back for another year but even if he does return, his days as a fantasy star are over.

These are tough decisions to make for the Eagles’ management and it will likely spell the end of one of the best QB-RB tandems of the past decade.  In my opinion, the Eagles’ front office will let go of the guy the fans want back (Westbrook) while holding onto the guy that the fans want gone (McNabb).

Week 10 of the 2009 season will most likely be remembered for the Colts-Patriots game and the controversial decision by Bill Belichick to go for it on fourth down.  But there were other stories elsewhere, many of which pertained to running backs.  Five starting running backs went down this past week, some with more serious injuries than others.  I will analyze both the short-term and long-term effects of these injuries as well as fantasy ramifications associated with them.

• Cedric Benson – After seven carries vs. Pittsburgh, Benson had to leave the game with a hip injury.  Coach Lewis says he will likely be a game-time decision, but Benson has never been praised for his toughness so don’t expect him to carry a full-load on Sunday, if he plays at all.  Expect Bernard Scott to receive the bulk of the carries with Brian Leonard getting his usual reps on third downs.  As for Larry Johnson?  Don’t expect anything more than a carry or two this week and don’t expect many touches for Johnson for the rest of the season.  LJ’s burst is gone and he hasn’t scored a TD or had a 20 yard run since December 2008.

• Ronnie Brown – Brown has injuries to both his right ankle and foot and with a game on Thursday vs. Carolina, there’s almost no chance of him being ready.  In fact, this is looking like an injury that could keep Brown out for a couple of weeks.  As of Tuesday, Brown was still unable to walk without the use of crutches.  Ricky Williams will definitely see an increase in touches and last week he received his first 20 carry game since 2005.  But someone still has to take over Brown’s role as the operator of the Wildcat; the one who receives the snap and then decides whether to run, pass, or handoff to Williams on the end around.  Look for that to be Pat White who had 45 rushing yards vs. New England, but just one last week vs. Tampa Bay.  White is only worth having on your team if you’re in a two-QB league and he has the potential to rack up somewhere between four and eight points per game over the next couple of weeks.  While that may not be much, I’d rather take my chances with White than with guys like JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn who have COMBINED for one fantasy point over the last four weeks.

• Julius Jones – With a bruised rib that’s causing bleeding in his lungs, Jones is unlikely to play Sunday vs. the Vikings and will probably be doubtful for Week 12 as well.  Justin Forsett will get the start and he was impressive last week in gaining 123 yards and scoring the first touchdown of his career.  However, the Seahawks will play Minnesota who is allowing the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.  They have not allowed more than 84 rushing yards to a running back and Ray Rice is the only player to score a rushing touchdown against them.  Nevertheless, Forsett will likely get 18-20 touches and can be used as a flex play until Jones returns.

• Michael Turner – Turner has the dreaded high ankle sprain which could keep him out a couple of weeks.  The Monday re-signing of Aaron Stecker also indicates that Jerious Norwood may not return this week due to his hip injury.  That means Jason Snelling will receive the bulk of the carries for the time being.  Along with Justin Forsett, Snelling is probably at the top of waiver wire requests for Week 11.  Snelling has impressed when given the chance to do so as he had 129 rushing yards and 1 TD over his last two games.  The Falcons will see a rejuvenated Giants defense this week but the following week they take on Tampa Bay who has the second worst run defense in the league.  Consider Snelling a RB3 for the Giants game but then upgrades to an RB2 against the Bucs.

• Brian Westbrook – This is the most serious injury as Westbrook suffered his second concussion in the last month.  Though it hasn’t been confirmed yet, it appears that Westbrook may miss the rest of the season.  He’s always been able to bounce back from knee, ankle, and foot injuries but this is something that could affect his general well-being so look for the Eagles to shut him down.  Even though Philadelphia doesn’t like to run the ball, LeSean McCoy receives an immediate upgrade and should be a weekly starter in your lineup.  Fullback Leonard Weaver will also see an increase in touches and he had 108 rushing yards and a TD in the two full games that Westbrook was out.  Also, don’t be surprised if the “Michael Vick Experiment” gets another run as Andy Reid will do everything he can to get his struggling running game going.

It’s the middle of the NFL season, and you can count on one undeniable truth at this point in the season: injuries and bye weeks are playing havoc with fantasy owners’ lineups. To help you try and fill the void, here’s a look at some players that very well could be available in your league.

- Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets: With Leon Washington out with a broken leg, the backup duties at running back for the Jets falls squarely on the shoulders of Greene, a rookie who was the first pick of the third round in last April’s draft. He steps into an excellent situation in New York; while he’ll play behind Thomas Jones, he’ll still get plenty of opportunities. The Jets lead the NFL in rushing yards, and also lead the league in rushing attempts, with 30 more runs than the team who is second in that category, the Giants.

- Bryant Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions: Picking up Johnson is a smart move, but more on a one-week basis as an emergency fill-in. His teammate, Calvin Johnson, is suffering from a knee injury, and may not be able to play this week against the Rams. Even if Calvin Johnson does play, his effectiveness may be limited. That opens up the way for Bryant Johnson in an excellent match-up against St. Louis. The Rams are 25th in the NFL in pass defense, and have allowed more touchdown throws than all but five other teams.

- LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: There’s probably less of a chance that McCoy is still available in your league than the other players here, but if he is there, snatch him up. Brian Westbrook never seems to be healthy anyway, but last week against Washington he suffered a concussion after being accidentally kneed in the head. In his one previous start, McCoy handled the rock 20 times and accumulated 84 yards while scoring a touchdown. His value doesn’t lie in his running ability alone, though. He’s caught 13 passes this season, with at least one catch in all but one contest.

- Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins: Yes,  his team has a bye this week, but if you can afford the roster spot, grab Davis anyway. Starting tight end Chris Cooley was lost with a broken right ankle, and reports vary on when he may come back, or if he will be back at all. In his absence during Monday night’s game between the ‘Skins and Eagles, Davis,  a second-round pick in 2008 out of USC, filled in with eight catches for 78 yards and a touchdown, and maybe more importantly, he was targeted a team-high 10 times by Jason Campbell.

• Brian Urlacher (LB, Chi): Broken wrist; out for season.  This is a huge blow if you have the Bears’ defense because in the seven games that Urlacher had missed prior to this season, Chicago was 0-7 and gave up an average of 26 points per game.  Strong-side LB Pisa Tinoisamoa also will be out but only a couple of weeks after spraining his PCL.  Chicago has already reached out to Derrick Brooks and he should be able to step right in as he’s played in the “Tampa Two” defense that the Bears currently run.  Though he plays the same position as Lance Briggs so someone will have to change positions.  Because of their special teams play, the Chicago is still worth keeping on your roster but they should only be started against poor offensive teams (Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis, Cincinnati).

• Anthony Gonzalez (WR, Ind): Strained knee ligament; out 2-6 weeks.  Gonzalez likely will not come back until after the Colts’ week-six bye.  I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are not floating on the waiver wire in your league, so the next best option is second-year man Pierre Garcon.  Garcon was the slot receiver before Gonzalez was injured and he now becomes a starter.  Garcon had five targets vs. Jacksonville (3 rec. 24 yards) and likely becomes the #3 receiving option in Indianapolis.  Garcon is definitely worth a roster spot and may even warrant a start in the coming weeks.  In week three the Colts play the Cardinals (last in NFL in rec. TDs allowed in 2008) and in week four they play the Seahawks (last in NFL in rec. yards allowed in 2008) so Garcon will have his opportunity to make an impact.

• Pierre Thomas (RB, NO): Though he was not injured in Week One (he didn’t even dress), his replacement, Mike Bell, may have created a three-headed committee for touches among Saint’s running backs.  The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that Bell could still be the starter once Thomas comes back which should be in Week Two.  This situation could be similar to the one in Dallas with Bell (or Thomas) in the role as Marion Barber, Reggie Bush as Felix Jones, and Thomas (or Bell) as Tashard Choice.  If still available, Bell is someone worth adding to your team and even though Thomas had a nice season last year, his running style is closer to Reggie Bush’s whereas Bell provides a between-the-tackles runner that is similar to former Saint, Deuce McAllister.

• Donovan McNabb (QB, Phi): Broken rib, doubtful for Week 2.  Coach Andy Reid said backup Kevin Kolb would get the first-team reps in practice and this is bad news for anyone that has a Philadelphia receiver not named DeSean Jackson.  In Kolb’s two career games with extended playing time (Sun. vs. Carolina, Week 12 vs. Baltimore in 2008) he has 17 completions and here is the breakdown: 6 completions to TE Brent Celek, 5 completions to DeSean Jackson, 4 completions to Eagles’ running backs, and 2 completions to any WR other than Jackson.  Expect to see Andy Reid go against the grain and employ a run-oriented gameplan.  Westbrook, of course, is a must-start but LeSean McCoy is also worth a start as he and Westbrook will be utilized in many screen passes to limit Kolb’s downfield throws.  Jackson is still worth a start and Celek will also be start-worthy as he will be a big factor in the short and intermediate passing game.  No other Eagles offensive player is even worth a look as long as Kolb (or Vick) is starting in place of McNabb.

Here’s a few thoughts on the teams that played Thursday Preseason games in Week 3 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

It is not clear how head coach Raheem Morris is going to leave his mark on this team. I don’t see any areas of emphasis. Overall TB seems to be heading for a repeat of their 2008 performance.  Byron Leftwich looks like he’s got a slight lead for the starting quarterback job over McCown, but unfortunately he looks like the same old Leftwich…clumsy, with a long windup, questionable accuracy, a fumble machine, and injury prone. He didn’t do anything to convince me he’s going to do any better or worse than he has everywhere else he’s been.  He’s likely to be replaced sometime during the season for performance or injury reasons. There don’t appear to be any particular WRs or TEs that Leftwich has as a favorite. Stevens and Winslow have been invisible.  TB is going to stress the running game with the three good RBs in their stable. The coaching staff likes Cadillac Williams better than any of their other RBs….when he’s healthy. He seems to be running well with no lingering signs of his knee injury from 2008, so maybe he’s healthy enough to claim his stake as the top RB.  Not sure he has a lot of value as the top RB of a three headed RB monster though.  Derrick Ward seems to be healthy and likely to contend with Earnest Graham for the #2 spot. Defensive coordinator Jim Bates seems to be having a positive impact on TB Defense, it seems very solid.  

MIAMI DOLPHINS

The offense wasn’t able to do much of anything productive against Tampa Bay. The wildcat formation wasn’t used and the game plan seemed pretty vanilla. Not sure if their lack of success was due to the Tampa Bay defense or Miami play calling. Based on this performance, Chad Pennington seems set for another average season. I don’t see anything that makes me think he’s up for a great improvement or let down from last year. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams look healthy enough to try and match their performances from 2008.  Defense looks ok, but is sprinkled with older veteran defensive lineman and linebackers, which worries me. 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Vick played the second down of the game, so he’s clearly going to be in the mix during the season using him for trick play situations. Most of the downs he played were gadget plays.  McNabb looked fine and is doing a good job spreading the receptions around. DeShaun Jackson looks just as good as he was last year. Very elusive and agile. McNabb seems to like him. Looks like Jackson is going to be returning punts/kicks again this season.  Jason Avant is getting a lot of attention from McNabb too and makes good catches. Westbrook did not play in this game. Not sure how how many carries LeSean McCoy is going to steal from Westbrook, looks like he’s going to be the #2. If Westbrook continues to get hurt, he’s obviously going to be picking up a lot of slack. McCoy isn’t quite as elusive as Westbrook, but he’s pretty good. Eagles don’t have a power running game as usual. Eagles defense looks good as expected.  

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

David Garrard looked like his typical self, but took a big hit and was out for several plays. I don’t expect Garrard to do much better or worse than he did in 2008. Torry Holt is a nice addition to the receiving corps and will help balance their attack, but I don’t think that Holt is going to have a major effect.  MJD is looking ok, but doesn’t seem to be running north/south like he usually does, insteand is spending more time running sideways. I’m wondering if the o-line isn’t opening the holes like they did last year or the year prior. Is their power running game compromised by the o-line play? Line seems to be allowing sacks too. MJD screens were very effective though.  Jags defense looks good, but not great. 

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Marc Bulger did not play (Injured). Kyle Boller started the game instead of Bulger and looked average, but was able to move them down the field pretty consistently. However, I think this says more about the Bengals defense than Boller’s skills. The Rams in general looked flat…the flash of years past is now completely gone.  Steven Jackson only played one series and looked hesitant, maybe it’s lack of motivation for preseason games… Samkon Gado got much more work and looked better. Defense was not good, but seemed good enough to keep the Bengals in check. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Carson Palmer did not play (Injured). JT O’sullivan started the game instead of Palmer and looked mediocre. The Bengals look out of sync on offense with O’sullivan, it might be a long season for the Bengals without Palmer on the field. C85 didn’t have many catches and the WR corps in general were invisible.  Cedric Benson looks quick and is zipping through the holes that the o-line is opening. Never thought I’d say this, but he might be the bright spot on this team. The Bengals defense had trouble stopping Boller, so I don’t have much hope that they are going to put up much of a fight against better teams. This might mean that Palmer may rack up tons of junk passing yards in come from behind attempts all season long….that is if he can stay on the field.

When it comes to fantasy football drafts, it seems everybody has a different strategy, and different way of doing things. For example, there’s the guy who takes forever to make each pick, waiting until :01 is showing on the clock before finally deciding who to select with the No. 2 overall pick. Then there’s the guy who talks a lot of trash after each of his picks, no matter who the selection was, and usually they have a very witless team name that only they think is funny. They’ll spout things like, “cant believe i got derik andersun in the 9th rnd!! he’s gonna throw at least 25 tds this season! no 1 can stop the stinkbombz this year baybee!!!!”

We could go on, of course. There’s still drunk drafter, as well as the angry guy who gets his all of his players “stolen” right before he was about to select them, and the guy (or girl) who insists that their new significant other be in the league even though they’ve never played fantasy football before and make their selections based on some inane criteria like a cool-sounding name. Still, no matter who is in your league, the point is to win, and get the satisfaction of beating the Derek Anderson-led stinkbombz. And to do so means good drafting, obviously. But what is good drafting? Well, we’re here to help you out with that, and give you some quintessential tips on how to avoid some common mistakes.

High-Profile Does not Mean Higher Value: You see this all the time, usually with players who came into the league with a lot of hype, or who play in the largest media markets. Name recognition doesn’t mean anything in fantasy football. See the graph below? Those are the top-15 quarterbacks last season in fantasy points. See where former No. 1 overall NFL draft pick and Super Bowl winning signal-caller Eli Manning is? No. 14. And last season was his first with a completion percentage of at least 58 percent and a quarterback rating above 77.0. Reggie Bush was the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL draft and a Heisman Trophy winner, yet he’s never even run for 600 yards in a season.

Avoid Rookie Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers: Everybody talks about how good Matt Ryan was for Atlanta last season. And he was, relatively speaking, but his 16 touchdown passes were 16th in the league, and his 3,440 passing yards were 13th in the league. Again, referring to the graph, he was 15th in fantasy points at quarterback last season, which made him a QB2, despite having what everybody would call an amazing season for a rookie. There are clearly more exceptions at wideout, as we saw last season with the production of DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal, but it’s also extremely difficult to predict just who will do what. If you could say with conviction that you knew in 2006 that seventh-round pick Marques Colston would amass over 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, or last season that you knew Royal would catch 90 passes, then pack your things and move to Vegas.

Don’t Overdo it on Handcuffs: One of the most overused strategies in fantasy football is the use of handcuff picks. If you’re reading this, you almost certainly know what that means, but just in case someone doesn’t, that’s the practice of taking the backup to your No. 1 running back to ensure that should he go down, you have a safety net. Things have changed in the NFL lately, however, and this strategy is one that has a chance to backfire. With the emphasis in recent years on two-back systems, taking a handcuff can be impossible to begin with. If you have DeAngelo Williams, it’s not very wise to take Jonathan Stewart soon after. Last season, they each amassed double-digit fantasy points only five times, and on three occasions they combined for fewer than 15 points. As for teams that utilize mainly one runner, there’s a reason for that. If you drafted Steven Jackson, do you really think Samkon Gado or Kenneth Darby will adequately replace him? This is not to say that some handcuffs aren’t important, just that they’re not as relevant. By all means, if you decide to draft Brian Westbrook, take LeSean McCoy. In other words, be smart about who really needs a handcuff.

In three weeks, the NFL season will have arrived in full force. Until then, however, we’ll have to deal with exhibition contests in which players that won’t even be on practice squads have a lot to do with the final score. Still, there is fantasy information to be gleaned from these games, so let’s examine the proceedings that took place over the weekend.

Cincinnati 7, New England 6: A particularly meaningless contest that left fantasy owners in the cold about the progress of Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, who did not play due to his injury, most people probably only know that Chad Ochocinco kicked off once and also kicked an extra point. From a fantasy perspective, if looking for a runner to handcuff to Bengals starter Cedric Benson, Dede Dorsey ran four times for 60 yards while Brian Leonard carried the rock seven times for 34 yards, and is considered the favorite for the backup job.

Indianapolis 23, Philadelphia 15: Not very encouraging numbers running the ball for either team, as Eagles rookie LeSean McCoy managed just four yards on five carries, and Colts rookie Donald Brown posting similar numbers with five yards on three carries. Still, McCoy is an absolute necessity as a handcuff to Brian Westbrook, though you may have to take him earlier than you like in order to ensure a spot for him on your roster. As for Brown, he’s a popular pick to become the Colts’ full-time back this season, even with the presence of Joseph Addai. That may be pushing it, but 700-800 yards and five or so scores are realistic expectations.

Dallas 30, Tennessee 10: Most of the news surrounding this game is the hilarious fact that the brand-spankin’ new $1 billion stadium the Cowboys play in has a $40 million scoreboard that punters can shell with the ball when booting it away because it sits too low. Nice attention to detail there. As for game action, there was a lot for fantasy owners to like about what Cowboys gunslinger Tony Romo did, connecting on 18-of-24 passes for 192 yards. On the other side, Vince Young’s encouraging performance in the Titans’ first preseason game gave way to a performance that saw him go 3-for-9 for 33 yards and an interception.

Atlanta 20, St. Louis 13: Michael Turner was in 2008 form, running for 65 yards and one touchdown on the first series of the game before having a seat the rest of the night, so no worries there (except for the Rams defense, which nobody in their right mind would use in fantasy). For St. Louis, wideout Laurent Robinson continues what has been an impressive showing throughout camp with five catches for 65 yards. He’s a decent sleeper choice, and certainly someone to pay attention to.

Minnesota 17, Kansas City 13: So, Brett Favre is back (see his 2008 week-by-week fantasy points in the graph below), and he really showed, well, nothing, completing one of his four throws for four yards. He should get better, obviously, but he’s still a QB2 right now. For the Chiefs, Matt Cassel’s 99 passing yards and one touchdown pass were encouraging considering some have speculated that former Patriot is losing his grip on the starting job.

Cleveland 27, Detroit 10: Matthew Stafford struggled mightily, completing just five of his 13 passes for 34 yards and an interception, taking a step back in the race for a starting gig. Even if he improves mightily the rest of the way, drafting him is a risk not worth taking. The Browns’ quarterback job is still up for grabs, and Derek Anderson showed pretty well, completing 10 of his 13 throws, but also tossing a pick. In the sleeper category, rookie running back James Davis ran the ball 12 times for 116 yards and a score, including one run for 81 yards. Jamal Lewis’s best days are behind him, and Davis is someone who has the potential to eventually get a chance to contribute.

Miami 27, Carolina 17: Chad Pennington was steady as usual, and Ronnie Brown had a nice all-around game, with 74 total yards and a touchdown on 10 touches. Many believe he’s overrated, but with his ability to both run the ball and catch it, he offers a lot of value.

Washington 17, Pittsburgh 13: Two disappointing rookies from last season were notable here. For Pittsburgh, running back Rashard Mendenhall, ran for 5.2 yards a pop, amassing 26 yards on five carries, and is someone that has the potential to unseat Willie Parker. For Washington, tight end Fred Davis was on the receiving end of two passes, hauling them in for 31 yards and a score.

Tampa Bay 24, Jacksonville 23: Running back Chauncey Washington ran the ball four times for 32 yards, making his case to be the backup to starter Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jaguars. Luke McCown threw two scores for the Buccaneers, possibly gaining some ground in the race for the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback job.

New Orleans 38, Houston 14: A solid backup for Steve Slaton has yet to emerge, as Chris Brown ran for just five yards on four carries, and Ryan Moats ran for 25 yards on nine carries.

Green Bay 31, Buffalo 21: It was a so-so performance by Trent Edwards, even though he completed seven of his 11 passes. He only amassed a paltry 45 yards on those throws, and also threw an interception.

Chicago 17, NY Giants 3: Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw, a viable RB3, showed his explosiveness with a six-carry, 54-yard performance. Meanwhile, it was a much better showing for Bears signal-caller Jay Cutler, who was 8-of-13 for 121 yards and a score.

San Francisco 21, Oakland 20: Rookie running back Glen Coffee ran for 129 yards, and has quickly established himself as the necessary handcuff to Frank Gore. Coffee leads all players in rushing this preseason with nearly 200 yards.

San Diego 17, Arizona 6: Cardinals first-round pick Beanie Wells has yet to play in a preseason contest, giving Tim Hightower an opportunity to win the starting job. He didn’t hurt himself in this game, running for 42 yards on nine carries.

Seattle 27, Denver 13: The panic surrounding Kyle Orton should have ceased, or at least lowered somewhat after he completed 18 of his 26 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown, though he also threw a pick. Matt Hasselbeck also looked very good, reminding fantasy owners of what he did two years ago by slinging the ball 23 times with 16 completions for 171 yards and two scores.

Week 1 of the NFL’s preseason has come, and while every football fan probably watched their team with at least some level of interest, fantasy owners in particular were likely examining what information they could glean out of the contests. To aid in that pursuit, let’s take a look at the games played so far (there are two Monday night games – Jacksonville at Miami and Carolina at NY Giants) and the fantasy consequences of each.

New England 27, Philadelphia 25: One Mr. Bundchen, Tom Brady, was back to his old tricks, going 10-of-15 for 100 yards, one touchdown pass and one interception while staying healthy, which was just fine. It was interesting that Patriots tight end Chris Baker was on the receiving end of both of Brady’s scoring passes. As for Philly, rookie running back LeSean McCoy’s 10 carries for 55 yards made all those that will handcuff him to Brian Westbrook feel good.

Baltimore 23, Washington 0: At least Baltimore’s defense was in mid-season form. Washington did very little, and had just 48 offensive plays all night. In contrast, the Ravens had 54 passing plays, 15 of which came from Joe Flacco, who did a solid job by completing nine of them. On the running back front, Ray Rice (whose fantasy points from last year you can see on the right) carried the ball five times for 22 yards and Willis McGahee toted the rock four times for 26 yards, but Rice’s three catches for 38 yards trumped McGahee’s one catch for seven yards, and is a further indication why Rice is the favorite to be the starting running back.

Pittsburgh 20, Arizona 10: It was ho-hum for Arizona, but worth noting was that Matt Leinart was a bit better than Brian St. Pierre in the battle for that team’s backup job. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall didn’t do himself any favors by running for only 2.7 yards per carry on nine attempts, but wideouts Shaun McDonald and Limas Sweed were productive. Sweed has big-time potential, but he was useless last season, and needs to step up this year. Still, he’s someone fantasy owners may want to keep in the back of their minds.

Oakland 31, Dallas 10: Dallas wideout Sam Hurd made the most noise by far in the team’s wide receiver battle, as he caught five passes for 79 yards, while no other wideout caught more than one pass. Darren McFadden used a 45-yard rumble to amass 63 yards on just four carries, showing the type of explosiveness that makes fantasy owners believe he can have a breakout campaign.

St. Louis 23, NY Jets 20: Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez played just one series, but that was enough for him to complete three of his four throws for 88 yards and be named the starter in the team’s next preseason game. For the Rams, the early battle for the team’s No. 2 running back job is being led by Samkon Gado, who ran for 93 yards, including one 77-yard touchdown gallop.

Minnesota 13, Indianapolis 3: Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good by completing 10 of his 13 passes for the Vikings, while the man he is battling for the starting QB job, Tarvaris Jackson, completed only seven of his 15 throws. Rookie runner Donald Brown started off nicely for the Colts, running the ball five times for and excellent 58 yards, including a 38-yard tote.

New Orleans 17, Cincinnati 7: Cedric Benson did what Cedric Benson always does - ran for under 4.0 yard per carry. His 28 yards on eight carries (3.5 ypc) does little to inspire those that have been burned by the former first-round bust in the past. Speaking of busts - okay, possible busts - Reggie Bush continues to show he makes an outstanding slot receiver for a running back, carrying three times and gaining 15 feet.

San Francisco 17, Denver 16: Disaster, thy name is Kyle Orton. Fantasy owners will need to see more than three interceptions in 16 passes from the new Broncos signal-caller before embracing him on their roster. So too will Denver fans. For the Niners, tight end Vernon Davis proved he could get downfield a bit, with two receptions for 41 yards.

Detroit 27, Atlanta 26: Not much happened to speak of for the Falcons, besides losing to Detroit after being up by nine with under 3:00 to play. Preseason or not, that’s a poor way to start. A much better way to start is by doing what Michael Turner did, running for 63 yards and a score on six carries. Matthew Stafford was a bit up and down for the Lions, connecting on half of his 14 passes, throwing for a score but also tossing a pick.

Buffalo 27, Chicago 20: Not the greatest of beginnings for Jay Cutler. While he wasn’t as terrible as the man he switched teams with, he completed just five of his 10 passes and threw an awful interception, chucking the ball in the air after feeling some pressure. Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards was very good, however, despite not having Terrell Owens. He completed each of the 10 throws he made.

Green Bay 17, Cleveland 0: Some sizzling quarterback race in Cleveland. Brady Quinn did complete seven of his 11 passes, but for only 68 yards, and he also tossed an interception. Derek Anderson, meanwhile, threw twice and completed one - to the wrong team. All the Green Bay running backs did a nice job, and it was good to see Brandon Jackson - a must-handcuff to Ryan Grant - deliver 41 yards on eight carries.

Tennessee 27, Tampa Bay 20: Little seemed to have been done to uncoil the quarterback situation in Tampa, as Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman and Luke McCown were each okay. For the Titans, rookie wideout Kenny Britt started off with a bang, with five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. He’s definitely someone to look out for in the rookie wide receiver class.

Houston 16, Kansas City 10: Someone needs to be the backup and possible handcuff to Steve Slaton, and both Ryan Moats and Chris Brown got off to solid starts. Moats ran the ball 10 times for 52 yards, while Brown carried it six times for 25 yards and a score. On the Chiefs side, not much could be taken away from the start Matt Cassel had, as he completed just two of his five throws.

Seattle 20, San Diego 14: Neither T.J. Duckett nor Julius Jones ran for 4.0 yards per carry in what could be a sign of things to come this season in the Seattle running game. Then again, neither did LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproles in this contest that told very little about either team’s stars.

By now, you’ve undoubtedly heard that the Philadelphia Eagles have inked Michael Vick to a two-year deal. And as you can image, reactions have been mixed. His teammates say they’ll embrace him. As receiver DeSean Jackson so eloquently put it, “Even though he did whatever he did, I don’t feel like nobody should hold a grudge on him.”

Some media types, however, aren’t so keen on the signing. Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Phil Sheridan writes, “it would be nice if Vick has changed and dedicates the rest of his life to good deeds. It would just be nice if that happens somewhere else.”

No matter what you think of the signing, the fact is that Vick will be in an NFL uniform at some point this season. And since this is a site dedicated to fantasy football, let’s examine all of the potential on-the-field consequences.

The most pressing issue is probably how this will affect Donovan McNabb this season. The answer: it probably shouldn’t. Vick, two years removed from playing in a game, is not going to supplant McNabb, barring injury. First, Vick has to get fully reinstated, which Roger Goodell says will happen by Week 6. That means it could come any time between now and then. There is no way he’ll knock the rust off of two years of inactivity and take over for one of the better quarterbacks in football. It’s just not happening.

And as the graph on the right shows you, Vick wasn’t really fantasy-friendly in his prime years of 2004-2006. His average fantasy points per game of around 15 is pretty good (for comparison, Peyton Manning averaged over 18 fantasy points per game in that same time period), but the killer was his inconsistency. An important part of winning in fantasy is having players, especially at the quarterback position, deliver relatively consistently. And due to his up-and-down ability to throw the ball, Vick couldn’t do that.

What he could always do, however, is run. And this is probably where he will get on the field most of the time for Philly. The most likely path for Vick is that he’ll be used in a variety of plays per game, in the range of 5-10. He’ll line up in the backfield with McNabb, or replace McNabb for a couple plays, which allows for potential havoc with the abilities of Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Jackson each able to both catch the ball and run with it.

So to answer the ultimate question - is Vick worthy of a draft pick? At this early stage of the preseason, I’d say no. Not yet. If you are having your fantasy draft soon, like in the next week or so, somebody will probably take a filer on him. Let them. It’s not worth using a roster spot on Vick right now when there are so many unknowns about him. That spot would be better used on another receiver or running back. But pay attention to Vick’s work in the preseason (though he’s not eligible to play until the final two games), and what type of things the Eagles have him do. If it seems like he’ll be a regular part of their offense, then maybe selecting him in the later rounds makes sense. But for now, he belongs on the waiver wire.

There have been few times during the fantasy football era where you could draft almost any player from a team and expect him to provide you with good production.  The Dungy-Colts, the Moss-Carter Vikings, and the Greatest Show on Turf all had multiple players who I, personally, had no problem starting on gameday.  In 2009 I think another team will follow in the footsteps of those teams, but it might not be who you expect.  It’s not the Patriots, the Chargers, or the Saints…it’s actually the often-criticized offense of the Philadelphia Eagles.

The McNabb-Westbrook combination has been together longer than any other QB-RB combo in the league.  That means in a lot in terms of chemistry and instinctively reacting to the other player.  McNabb is in that second-tier of quarterbacks who will get you 3000+ passing yards and around 20 touchdowns.  But what gives McNabb a boost in terms of fantasy production is not his rushing yards, but his lack of interceptions.  Last year McNabb’s percentage of passing attempts that resulted in interceptions was 1.9, which was lower than Brees or Manning.  For his career he stands at 2.1% which is the best in NFL history for players with at least 1500 pass attempts.  With Westbrook, you know what you’re going to get, you just don’t know how many games you will get it for and with him turning 30 in September, his durability questions will get louder.  But he has help this year in a quartet of newcomers.  2nd rounder, LeSean McCoy, is similar to Westbrook in size and ability.  They both have good hands out of the backfield and prefer to run around you rather than through you.  He obviously won’t get the same number of touches as Westbrook, but there should not be a drop in production when he is on the field.  McCoy gains added value because he will be the designated “Wildcat QB” as he has experience running it from his days at the University of Pittsburgh.  Many people undervalue the role of a fullback in fantasy.  No I’m not saying go out and draft new Eagles FB Leonard Weaver, but he will upgrade an area of need for Philly.  Last year the Eagles used converted linebacker Dan Klecko and backup halfback Correll Buckhalter as the lead blocker for Westbrook.  Coincidentally or not, Westbrook responded with his lowest rushing average of his career.  Now Westbrook has a solid lead back and McNabb has another option out of the backfield in Weaver who was a tight end in college and led all fullbacks in receptions last year.

The remainder of the quartet could actually be considered a quintet if you include G Shawn Andrews who only played 2 games last year.  His return, along with his brother, RT Stacy, and LT Jason Peters mean the Eagles now have the heaviest offensive line which traditionally means wider holes for the backs to run through.  But the line is still nimble enough to ward off pass rushers as Philadelphia had the seventh fewest sacks allowed last season and Jason Peters is renowned as one of the best pass blockers in the game.  All these changes remind me of another team last year who had a 30 year old running back post the best rushing numbers of his career-the New York Jets.  In 2008 the Jets added a Hall of Fame quarterback (Favre), a 4-time pro bowl fullback (Richardson), a 7-time pro bowl guard (Faneca), and a two-time Super Bowl champion tackle (Woody).  All these seemingly minor additions helped Thomas Jones net a career high 15 touchdowns and put him in his first pro bowl.  Westbrook’s receiving totals may not jump much from last year but as long as he stays relatively healthy, then he should easily get back to over 1000 yards rushing and improve upon his 4.0 rushing average.

The Eagles wide receivers may lack the star power that other teams possess, but they make up for it with quality depth.  Rookie Jeremy Maclin is similar to 2008 rookie DeSean Jackson in terms of versatility, but because of the depth of the Eagles receiving core, he may not be called upon as much as Jackson was last year.  As is the case with most rookies, expect inconsistency with some big plays intermittingly.  Kevin Curtis was the Eagles best receiver in 2007 but struggled last year with a hernia injury.  However, he did finish strong and showed off his speed in the NFC championship game with gains of 47 and 50 yards.  He may not score many touchdowns but if you need receiving yards and are in a point-per-reception league, then he could be a late round steal.  Since none of those three receivers are over six feet tall, Hank Baskett becomes the de facto red zone threat among receivers.  But he’s more than just a big possession receiver as he has had receptions of 87, 89, and 90 yards in his three year career.  Baskett has all the tools to be an effective fantasy WR2 but his lack of consistent playing time makes him a boom-or-bust player.  The last fantasy-worthy Eagles player is TE Brent Celek who replaces the fragile L.J. Smith.  Kyle Smith detailed Celek’s potential impact in his blog and I’ll add on that unlike college receiver-turned-NFL tight end, L.J. Smith, Celek is a natural tight end who will provide some YAC which will boost not only his fantasy value, but McNabb’s as well.

I believe the additions of all these players spells nothing but good news for McNabb and his fantasy owners.  Last season was labeled his “rebirth” but I think he will surpass his performance from 2008 and put up his best numbers since the 2004 Super Bowl season.  Westbrook will also be more productive with the backfield additions easing some of his burden.  At the receiver position Jackson will provide the yards, Curtis the receptions, and Baskett the touchdowns with Celek emerging as a sleeper.  Be careful with the rookies though as most don’t usually have a fantasy impact right away, especially when coming off the bench as McCoy and Maclin will be.  But if you are in a keeper league, then it may be worth it to draft either of those two in the later rounds as Philly did not draft them on the first day to be career benchwarmers.

This may be the “last dance” for the Reid-McNabb-Westbrook triumvirate so bank on them turning out their best performances in years.  With an assortment of new offensive weapons and an inspired defense that will be playing in honor of Jim Johnson, 2009 could finally be the year for the Philadelphia Eagles.