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Fantasy Football Love/Hate: Baltimore at Houston

Friday, November 7th, 2008

The Lowdown

Two players - Joe Flacco and Steve Slaton - will continue making their cases for rookie of the year in this game, a crucial one for the Ravens, who hope to make a run to the postseason, and the Texans, who are trying to stay afloat in the AFC South. Baltimore’s solid defense has some cracks in it with the absence of Chris McAllister and the questionable statuses of Bart Scott and Samari Rolle, but Houston’s defense should offer some opportunities to Flacco and Co.

Love ‘em

Joe Flacco - BAL - QB - Flacco is looking better every week from every perspective. Last week he passed for 248 yards and threw 2 touchdown passes, extending his touchdown streak to three games. Houston’s pass defense is suspect, too, so things bode especially well for the rookie quarterback this week.

Andre Johnson - HOU - WR - Johnson had 41 receptions for 593 yards between weeks 5-8, before his streak of 9+ reception games was snapped at Cleveland. He did catch his third touchdown of the season in that game, however, and remains one of the league’s biggest threats at wide receiver.

Derrick Mason - BAL - WR - Mason had just 1 catch for 3 yards against the Raiders week 8, but has otherwise been solid for much of the season. He caught 9 passes for 136 yards and 1 touchdown last week in his fourth 6+ reception game of the season. Houston has struggled at time to stop the pass this season and Mason is labeled a “start” this week.

Hate ‘em

Steve Slaton - HOU - RB - Slaton has looked very good the last three weeks of the season, but there’s reason to suspect he stumbles against the Ravens, who have the NFL’s best run defense. Slaton’s yard per carry average has dipped below 4.0 in three of his past four starts and there’s a very good chance he doesn’t find the endzone Sunday.

Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee - BAL - RBs -McClain and McGahee have relatively comparable numbers - not that that’s a compliment - this season with a lot of inconsistency thrown into the mix. Both will have a hard time breaking 70 yards this week, though McClain is the best bet to score a touchdown. Still, I’d steer clear.

Fantasy Football Love/Hate: Seattle at Miami

Friday, November 7th, 2008

The Lowdown

Hasselbeck is out, the Dolphins are hot, and this game could wind up a blowout favoring the Dolphins. Miami is within one game in the AFC East and on a two-game win streak, while the Seahawks have one road win this season (and another victory at home).

Love ‘em

Seneca Wallace - SEA - QB - Wallace has filled in admirably while Hasselbeck has been MIA. The 28-year old quarterback has passed for 391 yards and 3 touchdowns (with no interceptions) in his last two starts and should see at least a little more success against the Dolphins, who rank 26th in pass defense.

Ronnie Brown - MIA - RB - It’s hard to love a back that has scored just once in his last three games, but there’s good reason to be looking forward to this week: the Seahawks can’t stop anything. And it’s consoling to know that the team’s Brown failed to score against - Baltimore and Buffalo - have pretty darn good defenses, a luxary Mike Holmgren’s squad lacks.

Hate ‘em

Julius Jones - SEA - RB - It’s hard to post good numbers in a RBBC system with two other healthy backs, and Jones has disappointed fantasy owners most of the season. He hasn’t carried for more than 61 yards or scored a touchdown since the Seahawks week 4 bye, and the Dolphins are solid against the run.

Greg Camarillo - MIA - WR - Ignoring his 111-yard performance at Denver last week, let’s just look at what he did before that. Nothing? Okay. He has one touchdown reception this season and was averaging 53 yards per game before Denver.

Fantasy Football Love/Hate: Jacksonville at Detroit

Friday, November 7th, 2008

The Lowdown

The Lions are still gunning for that elusive first win of the season, while Jacksonville is trying to end its own losing streak of (currently) two games. The Jaguars have scored 30 points in just one game this season and less than 20 in four. Detroit, in perfectly opposite form, has allowed fewer than 20 once this season and more than 30 in four games. Seems like the perfect storm, right?

Love ‘em

David Garrard - JAC - QB - Last week snapped a four game touchdown streak for Garrard, but given how often he throws the football (at least 30 times per game most weeks this season), it only makes sense that he finds the endzone against the Lions. Plus, he’s a sure bet to pass for 200 yards.

Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC - RB - MJD has scored in 3 of his last 4 games and in 4 of his last 6 this season. And though he doesn’t have a lot of rushing yards going into this game, and thus much evidence to support thinking he will rush for 100 yards, let’s just take a good look at Detroit’s defense and ponder: who can’t run up, over, and around the Lions?

Calvin Johnson - DET - WR - Johnson is one of the league’s best fantasy wide receivers this season, and he’s been as good as gold the past four weeks. In that time he’s put together 18 receptions for 390 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. And there’s a good chance Daunte Culpepper will probably try shaking the rust off this week by lobbing some deep balls Johnson’s way.

Matt Jones - JAC - WR - If you’re not in a PPR league, you can probably continue scrolling down to the next set of names. But if you appreciate lots of catches - Jones has caught 7+ the past three weeks - you might want to take a second look at him.

Hate ‘em

Kevin Smith - DET - RB - Smith might have four rushing touchdowns this season and two in the last three weeks, but there should be some definite concern over his lack of yards. He hasn’t rushed for at least 70 yards yet this season, which means fantasy owners are looking at a single digit week if he can’t find the endzone, and even when he does find the endzone owners are looking at a max of 10 points.

Fred Taylor - JAC - RB - You probably didn’t need me to tell you that Taylor should ride the pine (assuming you for some reason have him on your roster), but just to be safe I’d like to point out that Taylor hasn’t rushed a touchdown this season or carried the ball more than 10 times since week three.

Fantasy Football Love/Hate: St. Louis at New York (Jets)

Friday, November 7th, 2008

The Lowdown

St. Louis is tied for second in the NFC West … with three other teams, putting them out of contention for 2008. New York, on the other hand, is very much in the postseason mix and a win in this game will keep them in a tie for first place, ahead of either Miami and either New England or Buffalo. St. Louis has scored at least 20 points in just one game this season, while New York has scored at least 26 in five of its last 6 games.

Love ‘em

Brett Favre - NYJ - QB - Favre has gone touchdown-less in two of his last three starts, but there’s reason for hope this week against St. Louis. The Rams defense is of the bend, then break variety, which bodes well for every offensive starter on the Jets roster. Favre should lead the way with a big day, and fans can only hope he matches the numbers he put up against another (better) NFC West team: 6 passing touchdowns against Arizona week 4.

Marc Bulger - STL - QB - I might not love this offense, but there’s good reason to expect St. Louis will throw the ball a lot in this game. Bulger has been putting up respectable numbers as of late, and in his last three starts he’s passed for 653 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Rams will need to score a lot of points to contend in this game, and with Steve Jackson out of the lineup it’s unlikely those points will come on the ground.

Thomas Jones - NYJ - RB - Jones has either rushed for 100 yards or a touchdown in his last four starts and has 404 total yards and 5 touchdowns in that time. Expect a good day out of him, especially if the Jets get an early lead and focus on ball-control offense.

Hate ‘em

Torry Holt - STL - WR - He might lead the Rams in receptions this season, but it’s hard to imagine him making a fantasy impact. He’s caught two touchdowns this season and just one in the last 6 weeks. This might be excusable if he was racking up the yardage, but he’s not; he hasn’t had at least 60 receiving yards since the Rams week 5 bye.

Most of the Jets Receivers - NYJ - WR/TE - I realize that I expect Brett Favre to have a field day, but let’s consider: he’s thrown touchdown passes to 7 different wide receivers but many of Cotchery’s and Coles’ came in week four, when Favre threw 6 (five of which were split among the two starting wide receivers), so it’s hard to say who will be on the receiving end of a Favre touchdown this week.

Fantasy Football Love/Hate: New Orleans at Atlanta

Friday, November 7th, 2008

The Lowdown

The Saints are fighting to get out of the NFC South’s basement, while another win for Atlanta could - if the rest of the week goes their way - put them in a tie for first place. New Orleans has scored at least 27 points in five of its last six games, while allowing at least 30 in three of its last four. This game should wind up with a pair of big numbers on the scoreboard: good news for owners with some of these players.

Love ‘em

Matt Ryan - ATL - QB - In his last three starts Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 275 yards, and he has thrown 7 touchdowns in his last four games. New Orleans has an atrocious pass defense, something Ryan should be able to take advantage of to post some big numbers.

Deuce McAllister - NO - RB - The absence of Reggie Bush means a healthy dose of Deuce McAllister, who has averaged a little over 4 yards per carry in his last three games and scored his second touchdown of the season last week. He can also expect to play an inflated role in the passing game without Bush, who has 42 receptions this season.

Lance Moore - NO - WR - Moore has had some pretty great weeks this season; in three of his last five games, for example, he’s finished with at least 90 receiving yards. Mix in the three touchdowns he caught in that time, and he’s mostly underrated. I’m actually not loving him 100 percent (because when he’s off, he might result in one or two fantasy points), but if you’re in a PPR league, I’d take a chance. He’s caught at least 5 passes in five of his last six games.

Hate ‘em

Drew Brees - NO - QB - What?! Drew Brees is on the “hate” list? What kind of madness is this? Well, just consider that, on three road games this season Brees has thrown 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Add to that the absence of his favorite receiver, Reggie Bush, and you have the makings of a potentially mediocre - or worse - week.

Fantasy Football Love/Hate: Tennessee at Chicago

Friday, November 7th, 2008

The Lowdown

Uh-oh, it’s a defensive showdown Sunday when Tennessee travels to the Windy City after defeating another NFC North team, Green Bay. Meanwhile Chicago may be without Kyle Orton (which means Grossman could start) and Kerry Collins continues to leave fantasy players scratching their heads.

Love ‘em

Chris Johnson and LenDale White - TEN - RB - There isn’t a lot to love in this game, but these two runners have been incredible this season. Granted, they’ll face a stiff defense in Chicago, but take solace in this: Chris Johnson has rushed for at least one touchdown in his last three starts and in four of his last five starts, and he’s netted at least 90 yards in his last three starts; and LenDale White has scored 10 touchdowns this season and more than one in three games.

Matt Forte - CHI - RB - Okay, maybe “love” is a bit strong, but I do know this: the temperature could dip to freezing during the game, and wind could play a significant factor in the running game. Translation: Forte should get plenty of carries. Tennessee has a tough run defense, but Forte is a downhill runner who has scored in three of his last four starts. Chicago will probably try keeping the ball on the ground to prevent turnovers, and Forte should find the endzone at least once. Hopefully.

Hate ‘em

Anyone Who Considers Himself a Receiver or Part of the Passing Game - TEN/CHI - QB/WR/TE - In Tennessee, Kerry Collins has three passing touchdowns this season, and no one on the team has more than 1. In fact, no one on the team has at least 350 receiving yards this season either. And only one player (Bo Scaife) has at least 225. The top two targets in Chicago are tight ends, both of which play a solid role on gameday. Problem is, you have to wonder how often Chicago finds the endzone in this game and how many of those scores will be passing. Play it safe and keep them on the bench.

Fantasy Football Love/Hate: Buffalo at New England

Friday, November 7th, 2008

The Lowdown

The AFC East has the tightest division race in the NFL, but this game could see one team jump to an outright lead. Buffalo is coming off two consecutive division losses, while the Patriots lost a tough one against Indianapolis last week.

Love ‘em

Wes Welker - NE - WR - I love Wes Welker, but there is a caveat: if you’re not in a PPR league, stay away. Welker has just one touchdown reception this season, but the fact that he’s had at least 6 receptions in every game this season makes me a fan. That many receptions usually translates to at least 50 yards, despite his role as the pure “possession receiver.”

Lee Evans - BUF - WR - If Trent Edwards throws a touchdown pass, there’s a pretty good chance Lee Evens will be on the receiving end. In any event, Evans has finished 6 games with more than 75 receiving yards and 3 with more than 100. He’s the Bills’ best receiver and a big-play target.

Hate ‘em

Trent Edwards - BUF - QB - Buffalo has scored 73 points in its last four games, an average of about 18 per game. Edwards has just 6 touchdown passes this season, and he hasn’t had a multiple touchdown game yet this season. And, just to be safe, let me point out that New England hasn’t allowed 20+ points in its last three games.

Most of Either Teams’ Running Backs - BOTH - RBs - Neither team has a lot of luck running the ball and both have committee systems in place. Marshawn Lynch has been mostly ineffective this season, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, while New England’s Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (who might just be worth starting because he’s been scoring) have been splitting carries 50-50. If you want to start one, go with Green-Ellis because he’s scored in every game he’s played and he’s rushed for at least 50 yards in two of his last three games. Otherwise, avoid this position.

Fantasy Football Love/Hate: Green Bay at Minnesota

Friday, November 7th, 2008

The Lowdown

Both NFC North teams are hunting for a win to move closer to the Bears and to distance themselves from one another. Green Bay lost a tough matchup in overtime against Tennessee last week, while the Vikings have scored 69 points in their last two games.

Love ‘em

Aaron Rodgers - GB - QB - If you don’t love Aaron Rodgers at this point, it’s either because you have no soul or because you faced him in one of his better games this season. In any case, there’s no reason to not love him in this matchup: Minnesota’s pass defense ranks 23rd in the NFL this season and last time he faced the Vikings - his first career NFL start - he had a pretty good game: 186 passing yards and 1 touchdown. Rodgers has looked good or very good in just about every start this season, and the Packers will be looking for a big win in order to distance themselves from Minnesota. Expect good things.

Adrian Peterson - MIN - RB - Adrian Peterson is on a tear, rushing for 100+ yards in each of his last three starts. He has five 100-yard games this season and he’s averaging more than 20 carries per game. Really, did I even have to give any reasons for loving this guy?

Bernard Berrian - MIN - WR - He’s been Gus Frerotte’s favorite target and for good reason: he’s the most talented receiver on the roster. He’s also been a favorite of fantasy football players, as he’s caught a touchdown in each of his last four starts and has finished his last six games with more than 75 receiving yards.

Hate ‘em

Gus Frerotte - MIN - QB - If you’re in a league that deducts interceptions, you might want to stay away from Frerotte. Though he’s passed for quite a few yards this season and he threw three touchdowns last week, Green Bay’s defense has plenty of ball-hawks, not to mention that Frerotte has throw an interception in his last three games (including a 4-interception game against Chicago).

Ryan Grant - GB - RB - Watching the Packers offense last week wasn’t a lot of fun if you started Ryan Grant. In fact, this season hasn’t been a lot of fun with him on the roster. He has rushed for at least 80 yards in his last four starts, but that’s party because of the incredible number of carries he’s had: 84 in his last three starts (that’s 28 per game). He’s scored just one touchdown this season and he’s a non-factor in the passing game, plus Minnesota has one of the best run defenses around.

Donald Driver - GB - WR - Okay, I love watching Donald Driver. He can flash one of those smiles and make you forget that, prior to last week, he hadn’t had an 80-yard game this season and had caught just one touchdown pass. Try not to forget, okay?