When you take a look at Matt Cassel’s 2008 stats and you factor in the appointment of Charlie Weis as Chiefs’ OC, you realize that Kansas City is faced with a paradox: Charlie Weis loves to employ the spread offense which frequently has at least 3, but often 4 or 5 receivers on the field at a time. But Cassel struggles in multiple receiver sets where it’s tougher to read defenses and throw the ball downfield. (With the stats below, receivers are counted as anyone who lines up out wide or in the slot; thus, running backs and tight ends flexed out are counted as receivers).

So what should the Chiefs do? Forcing Cassel into the spread could be like fitting a square peg into a round hole. I thought about the Chiefs possibly utilizing Cassel more in the shotgun which would give him a little more time to avoid the rush and a better look at the defensive alignment. However, that idea was put to rest once I saw these stats:

Cassel’s metrics show him as an average passer when in the traditional offensive formation: under center and with only 2 wide receivers. However, when forced to perform in the Todd Haley-friendly (and soon to be Weis-friendly) shotgun-spread formations, Cassel enters JaMarcus Russell-territory. No one expected Cassel to do as well in Kansas City as he did in New England but not even his biggest critics expected his passer rating to drop 20 points. Perhaps he and Weis can come up with some sort of a compromise as to what kind of offense they are both comfortable running and Cassel can show why he was worth $63 million. Or perhaps it was just the “Patriots system” that made Cassel in 2007 and in 2008 he showed why he was a 7th round pick.

However, I’m not ready to label the Cassel trade a disaster for KC just yet as he needs more than one season to prove his worth.  With the way that Jamaal Charles finished his 2009 season look for the Chiefs to feature him prominently in 2010 which could actually help Cassel’s numbers just as Chris Johnson did for Vince Young.  Expect shorter passes to boost Cassel’s completion percentage but that will inversely affect his yards per attempt.  As for his QB rating, Cassel’s such a high-volume passer that his rating has no choice but to go up.  His 69.9 season passer rating was the lowest in six years for a QB who had at least 490 pass attempts.  Weis loves for his QB to spread the ball around a la the pre-Welker/pre-Moss Patriots who didn’t have a 1000-yard receiver from 2002-2006.  While that may ultimately hurt Dwayne Bowe’s numbers, it should boost Cassel’s back into fantasy relevance.  He may never live up to his $63 million contract, but at least for 2010 he is a high-end QB2 who could see a spot-start during bye weeks.

The fantasy football season has concluded in many leagues, and will reach it’s denouement in other leagues shortly. And with that in mind, and a new year upon us, now seems like a good time to review, position-by-position, what went on this season, and compare it to what we thought would happen going into the year. (Note: All statistics are through Week 16)

QUARTERBACKS

BIGGEST BUST - Matt Cassel, Kansas City: After being traded to the Chiefs and signing a big new contract, Cassel came into this season as, at worst, a QB2, with some fantasy football owners considering him as a possible low-end starter, depending on the match-up. He hasn’t lived up to the contract he signed, and he wasn’t even on most fantasy radars after the beginning of the season. He is 21st in the NFL in passing yards with 2,717, tied for 20th in touchdown throws with 16, is tied for seventh in the league with 15 interceptions, and is 28th with a completion percentage of 55.0.

- Runners-Up: Jay Cutler, David Garrard

BEST VALUE - Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos: Orton was considered far down the totem pole of fantasy quarterbacks, and though he certainly wasn’t an every week starter, he was solid enough to play if the match-up was correct. He threw for 20 touchdowns, which was tied for 16th in the NFL, and 3,371 yards, which was 15th. Orton didn’t hurt his fantasy owners with negative points much, either, throwing only eight interceptions.

- Runners Up:  Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger

RUNNING BACKS

BIGGEST BUST - Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: While nobody had McFadden as a first-round pick, it was generally thought that he would make a solid contribution as a RB2, or flex play on most weeks. To say that hasn’t happened is an understatement. McFadden was on most waiver wires at the end of the season with numbers that were paltry even when you consider the fact that he missed four games. The former Arkansas Razorbacks star has run for 348 yards, at 3.5 per carry, and just one touchdown, with 21 catches for 245 yards. If anybody told you before the season that McFadden would have three times the amount of lost fumbles as he did touchdowns going into the season’s final week, would you have believed it?

- Runners Up: Steve Slaton, Larry Johnson

BEST VALUE - Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers: This was a close call, as both Ray Rice and Ricky Williams were close, but they were likely drafted higher than Mendenhall. But considering that Mendenhall didn’t play much last season due to injury, and had all of 45 yards through the season’s first three games, he gets the nod. Mendenhall is 11th in the NFL in rushing with over 1,000 yards, and has scored seven touchdowns.

- Runners Up: Rice, Williams

WIDE RECEIVERS

BIGGEST BUST - T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: Houshmandzadeh came to Seattle over Minnesota in part because he liked the team’s quarterback situation more. That turned out to be a great thing for the Vikings, who saw players like Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin emerge, while Houshmandzadeh struggled all season, ranking 29th in the NFL with 845 receiving yards, and, most disappointingly, just three touchdown catches, which ranks him tied for 66th in the league, and behind players like Louis Murphy and James Jones.

- Runners Up: Terrell Owens, Ted Ginn

BEST VALUE - Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys: If Austin was drafted at all in fantasy leagues, it was near the bottom of the draft. And through the season’s first four weeks, you saw why, as he caught just five passes for 81 yards in the first quarter of the season. But he caught 10 passes for 250 yard and two scores in Week 5 in Kansas City, and is now fifth in the NFL with 1,230 receiving yards and fourth with 11 touchdown catches.

- Runners Up: Sidney Rice, Mike Sims-Walker

TIGHT ENDS

BIGGEST BUST - Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins: After catching 34 passes for 454 yards and seven touchdowns last year, many fantasy owners believed Fasano was on his way to bigger and better things in his fourth season. Unfortunately, he’s gone backwards, and has just two touchdowns among his 29 receptions, along with 298 receiving yards, which is 29th in the NFL among tight ends.

- Runners Up: Martellus Bennett, Bo Scaife

BEST VALUE - Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers: Fantasy owners have been waiting for Davis to break out, but after he regressed statistically last season, many had given up hope. He was still a draftable player, but nobody believed he’d accomplish what he has so far this season. He’s more than doubled his numbers in every category from 2008 to this season, and has 72 receptions for 876 yards. More importantly, he’s caught 12 touchdown passes, which is tied for second in the NFL.

- Runners Up: Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek

With Week 1 getting underway in just a matter of days, let’s take a look at the best and worst match-ups per position, starting with the quarterback.

BEST

- Drew Brees vs. Lions: Starting the season against the Lions is the perfect way for Brees and his fantasy owners to get acclimated to the season. Last year, Detroit was 27th in the NFL in both passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns allowed. Brees was responsible for some of that. The Saints played the Lions in Week 16, and Brees threw for 351 yards and two scores, and as the graph shows, a plethora of fantasy points.

- Aaron Rodgers vs. Bears: Chicago was a dismal 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed last season, and 18th in passing scores allowed. The team still is searching for answers at defensive back, so even if they do improve against the pass, it shouldn’t be a significant amount. In two games last season against the Bears, Rodgers threw for an average of 244 yards while also throwing two touchdowns and one interception in each contest.

- Peyton Manning vs. Jaguars: Only two teams allowed more passing touchdowns than the Jaguars lasts season, and their situation at defensive back seemingly hasn’t improved since then. Manning played against the divisional foe twice last season, and though he struggled a bit in a Week 3 loss to Jacksonville, he was still getting into game shape after a knee injury. He was more himself in 16, when he blistered them 364 yards and three touchdowns.

WORST

- Matt Cassel vs. Ravens: Cassel is suffering from a sprained knee, but he practiced with the Chiefs after putting a brace on it. That’s strike one against him. Strikes two and three are the fact that Baltimore was second in the league in pass defense last season, and No. 1 in the league in interceptions.

- Eli Manning vs. Redskins: Unlike his brother, Eli is on the wrong end of this match-up. The Redskins were very good against the pass in 2008, coming in seventh in the league. And though Manning did have a 300-yard game against them, his overall numbers were not great. He completed just 58 percent of his passes against them with one touchdown and two interceptions.

- Jake Delhomme vs. Eagles: The Eagles were third in passing yards allowed last season, 10th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 11th in interceptions. None of which bodes well for Delhomme, who, the last time we saw him, had thrown five interceptions in a playoff loss to the Cardinals. It was the fourth time he threw multiple picks in a game in the season, which is the same amount of games he threw multiple touchdowns in.

Here’s a few thoughts on a few more teams from the Saturday games.

ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons offense looked very good with a nice balance of rush and pass. The Chargers we’re not able to stop them driving down the field.  Matt Ryan looked good, ready for the season already. Calm, cool, and collected.  Michael Turner looked very good, with good holes to run through. Norwood got creamed while making a catch. Tony Gonzalez looked good and had a few receptions. Roddy White looked good with a couple long receptions. Michael Jenkins looked ok, not a lot of touches.  Atlanta defense looked good, but not great against the Chargers. Atlanta is effective on all out blitzes, sacking Rivers several times.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers offense was not fully complete, with many of the starters sitting this game out. LT did not play. Antonio Gates did not play.  Philip Rivers looked good with accurate throws and some long bombs. O-line is giving him good time to throw.  Darren Sproles looked great as usual…running with speed and power. He found plenty of running room and holes to run through. It’s amazing how he makes yards after catch/contact.  Chargers screen passes are deadly. Vincent Jackson looked good with several long catches and a spectacular one handed catch.  Malcolm Floyd had a nice long catch, but aggravated his sore ribs.  Chargers defense looked good, but not great. Could not consistently stop the Falcons running game.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs got off to a rough start. The o-line is not doing a good job of pass protection. They are still shuffling o-linemen. The lack of time in passing situations resulted in a sack of Matt Cassel where he got his left knee twisted and he hobbled off the field and did not return. Tyler Thigpen stepped in to replace Cassel.  Tyler Thigpen is just not very good.  Larry Johnson is looking good, but not sure the o-line is going to give him enough running room to do well inside. He had to bounce outside (not his strength) to find any room to run.  Jamaal Charles is very quick and looks good as a change of pace back to compliment LJ. He’s dangerous in draw plays and screens. Dwayne Bowe didn’t get a lot of touches early, but gained more as the game went on.  Chiefs defense looks decent, but not great.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks don’t look like they are in sync yet. Drives are somewhat awkward and not sustained. Matt Hasselbeck looks ok.  Julius Jones is having trouble finding running room inside… o-line is not busting big running lanes for him.  TJ Houshmanzadeh looks good, but didn’t get a lot of touches.  Nate Burleson looks healthy, made a couple good catches. Overall a pretty blah performance.  Seahawks defense is decent, good enough to give Tyler Thigpen problems, which isn’t saying much.

With the third week of preseason games getting underway, it’s time to take a look around the league to see what’s going on, and what use it will be for the upcoming fantasy season.

- Reggie Brown (and His Fantasy Value) on the Move? The Philadelphia Eagles have too many receivers than they know what to do with, and the Philadelphia Daily News says that both the Jets and Ravens are interested in Reggie Brown. Brown is a former second-round draft pick who looked like he was going to blossom into an excellent player before getting injured and falling back on the depth chart last season. If he is moved, his fantasy value would rise by leaps and bounds, to the point where he would be worth drafting as a reserve.

- Jermichael Finley Pushing Donald Lee for Playing Time: Last season, Packers rookie and third-round pick, tight end Jermichael Finley, did loads of nothing, as fellow tight end Donald Lee helped fantasy owners to the tune of five touchdowns. Things could be quite different this season for both of them, as Finley has made people take notice with his play, or so says the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. This could be either beneficial or harmful to fantasy owners. If Finley steps up and takes the job outright from Lee, He has value as a big target who could be useful in the end zone. However, the most likely scenario is that the two split time, and neither puts up fantasy-worthy numbers. Keep that in mind when thinking about Lee as a TE2.

- Chiefs and Jags Talking Trade for Tyler Thigpen: NFL.com says that Thigpen (see his fantasy points per game last season on graph), the Kansas City quarterback and hero to many fantasy owners last season, may be on his way to Jacksonville. Apparently the NFL’s J.D. Drew Award winner (for yearly injuries), Brodie Croyle, is going to be the No. 2 quarterback behind Matt Cassel, leaving Thigpen out in the cold.

- Michael Crabtree Offered Fair-Market Deal: According to Santa Rosa Press Democrat reporter Matt Maiocco, the 49ers have offered Crabtree, the 10th overall pick in the draft, somewhere “in the neighborhood of five years, $20 million base, $26.5 million maximum, with $16 million guaranteed.” Which, as Maiocco points out, is solidly in between what No. 9 pick B.J. Raji got and what No. 11 pick Aaron Maybin got. Crabtree’s agent seems to think this is a fair deal as well, but Crabtree does not. Fantasy owners should not count on seeing him any time soon, it sounds like. His fantasy value has taken a major plunge since the beginning of training camp.

- Walter Jones Not Headed for Retirement: The longtime Seattle Seahawks left tackle is expected to be back with the team, reports the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. There was some speculation that Jones may hang ‘em up after undergoing another operation on his balky knee.

In three weeks, the NFL season will have arrived in full force. Until then, however, we’ll have to deal with exhibition contests in which players that won’t even be on practice squads have a lot to do with the final score. Still, there is fantasy information to be gleaned from these games, so let’s examine the proceedings that took place over the weekend.

Cincinnati 7, New England 6: A particularly meaningless contest that left fantasy owners in the cold about the progress of Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, who did not play due to his injury, most people probably only know that Chad Ochocinco kicked off once and also kicked an extra point. From a fantasy perspective, if looking for a runner to handcuff to Bengals starter Cedric Benson, Dede Dorsey ran four times for 60 yards while Brian Leonard carried the rock seven times for 34 yards, and is considered the favorite for the backup job.

Indianapolis 23, Philadelphia 15: Not very encouraging numbers running the ball for either team, as Eagles rookie LeSean McCoy managed just four yards on five carries, and Colts rookie Donald Brown posting similar numbers with five yards on three carries. Still, McCoy is an absolute necessity as a handcuff to Brian Westbrook, though you may have to take him earlier than you like in order to ensure a spot for him on your roster. As for Brown, he’s a popular pick to become the Colts’ full-time back this season, even with the presence of Joseph Addai. That may be pushing it, but 700-800 yards and five or so scores are realistic expectations.

Dallas 30, Tennessee 10: Most of the news surrounding this game is the hilarious fact that the brand-spankin’ new $1 billion stadium the Cowboys play in has a $40 million scoreboard that punters can shell with the ball when booting it away because it sits too low. Nice attention to detail there. As for game action, there was a lot for fantasy owners to like about what Cowboys gunslinger Tony Romo did, connecting on 18-of-24 passes for 192 yards. On the other side, Vince Young’s encouraging performance in the Titans’ first preseason game gave way to a performance that saw him go 3-for-9 for 33 yards and an interception.

Atlanta 20, St. Louis 13: Michael Turner was in 2008 form, running for 65 yards and one touchdown on the first series of the game before having a seat the rest of the night, so no worries there (except for the Rams defense, which nobody in their right mind would use in fantasy). For St. Louis, wideout Laurent Robinson continues what has been an impressive showing throughout camp with five catches for 65 yards. He’s a decent sleeper choice, and certainly someone to pay attention to.

Minnesota 17, Kansas City 13: So, Brett Favre is back (see his 2008 week-by-week fantasy points in the graph below), and he really showed, well, nothing, completing one of his four throws for four yards. He should get better, obviously, but he’s still a QB2 right now. For the Chiefs, Matt Cassel’s 99 passing yards and one touchdown pass were encouraging considering some have speculated that former Patriot is losing his grip on the starting job.

Cleveland 27, Detroit 10: Matthew Stafford struggled mightily, completing just five of his 13 passes for 34 yards and an interception, taking a step back in the race for a starting gig. Even if he improves mightily the rest of the way, drafting him is a risk not worth taking. The Browns’ quarterback job is still up for grabs, and Derek Anderson showed pretty well, completing 10 of his 13 throws, but also tossing a pick. In the sleeper category, rookie running back James Davis ran the ball 12 times for 116 yards and a score, including one run for 81 yards. Jamal Lewis’s best days are behind him, and Davis is someone who has the potential to eventually get a chance to contribute.

Miami 27, Carolina 17: Chad Pennington was steady as usual, and Ronnie Brown had a nice all-around game, with 74 total yards and a touchdown on 10 touches. Many believe he’s overrated, but with his ability to both run the ball and catch it, he offers a lot of value.

Washington 17, Pittsburgh 13: Two disappointing rookies from last season were notable here. For Pittsburgh, running back Rashard Mendenhall, ran for 5.2 yards a pop, amassing 26 yards on five carries, and is someone that has the potential to unseat Willie Parker. For Washington, tight end Fred Davis was on the receiving end of two passes, hauling them in for 31 yards and a score.

Tampa Bay 24, Jacksonville 23: Running back Chauncey Washington ran the ball four times for 32 yards, making his case to be the backup to starter Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jaguars. Luke McCown threw two scores for the Buccaneers, possibly gaining some ground in the race for the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback job.

New Orleans 38, Houston 14: A solid backup for Steve Slaton has yet to emerge, as Chris Brown ran for just five yards on four carries, and Ryan Moats ran for 25 yards on nine carries.

Green Bay 31, Buffalo 21: It was a so-so performance by Trent Edwards, even though he completed seven of his 11 passes. He only amassed a paltry 45 yards on those throws, and also threw an interception.

Chicago 17, NY Giants 3: Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw, a viable RB3, showed his explosiveness with a six-carry, 54-yard performance. Meanwhile, it was a much better showing for Bears signal-caller Jay Cutler, who was 8-of-13 for 121 yards and a score.

San Francisco 21, Oakland 20: Rookie running back Glen Coffee ran for 129 yards, and has quickly established himself as the necessary handcuff to Frank Gore. Coffee leads all players in rushing this preseason with nearly 200 yards.

San Diego 17, Arizona 6: Cardinals first-round pick Beanie Wells has yet to play in a preseason contest, giving Tim Hightower an opportunity to win the starting job. He didn’t hurt himself in this game, running for 42 yards on nine carries.

Seattle 27, Denver 13: The panic surrounding Kyle Orton should have ceased, or at least lowered somewhat after he completed 18 of his 26 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown, though he also threw a pick. Matt Hasselbeck also looked very good, reminding fantasy owners of what he did two years ago by slinging the ball 23 times with 16 completions for 171 yards and two scores.

Week 1 of the NFL’s preseason has come, and while every football fan probably watched their team with at least some level of interest, fantasy owners in particular were likely examining what information they could glean out of the contests. To aid in that pursuit, let’s take a look at the games played so far (there are two Monday night games – Jacksonville at Miami and Carolina at NY Giants) and the fantasy consequences of each.

New England 27, Philadelphia 25: One Mr. Bundchen, Tom Brady, was back to his old tricks, going 10-of-15 for 100 yards, one touchdown pass and one interception while staying healthy, which was just fine. It was interesting that Patriots tight end Chris Baker was on the receiving end of both of Brady’s scoring passes. As for Philly, rookie running back LeSean McCoy’s 10 carries for 55 yards made all those that will handcuff him to Brian Westbrook feel good.

Baltimore 23, Washington 0: At least Baltimore’s defense was in mid-season form. Washington did very little, and had just 48 offensive plays all night. In contrast, the Ravens had 54 passing plays, 15 of which came from Joe Flacco, who did a solid job by completing nine of them. On the running back front, Ray Rice (whose fantasy points from last year you can see on the right) carried the ball five times for 22 yards and Willis McGahee toted the rock four times for 26 yards, but Rice’s three catches for 38 yards trumped McGahee’s one catch for seven yards, and is a further indication why Rice is the favorite to be the starting running back.

Pittsburgh 20, Arizona 10: It was ho-hum for Arizona, but worth noting was that Matt Leinart was a bit better than Brian St. Pierre in the battle for that team’s backup job. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall didn’t do himself any favors by running for only 2.7 yards per carry on nine attempts, but wideouts Shaun McDonald and Limas Sweed were productive. Sweed has big-time potential, but he was useless last season, and needs to step up this year. Still, he’s someone fantasy owners may want to keep in the back of their minds.

Oakland 31, Dallas 10: Dallas wideout Sam Hurd made the most noise by far in the team’s wide receiver battle, as he caught five passes for 79 yards, while no other wideout caught more than one pass. Darren McFadden used a 45-yard rumble to amass 63 yards on just four carries, showing the type of explosiveness that makes fantasy owners believe he can have a breakout campaign.

St. Louis 23, NY Jets 20: Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez played just one series, but that was enough for him to complete three of his four throws for 88 yards and be named the starter in the team’s next preseason game. For the Rams, the early battle for the team’s No. 2 running back job is being led by Samkon Gado, who ran for 93 yards, including one 77-yard touchdown gallop.

Minnesota 13, Indianapolis 3: Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good by completing 10 of his 13 passes for the Vikings, while the man he is battling for the starting QB job, Tarvaris Jackson, completed only seven of his 15 throws. Rookie runner Donald Brown started off nicely for the Colts, running the ball five times for and excellent 58 yards, including a 38-yard tote.

New Orleans 17, Cincinnati 7: Cedric Benson did what Cedric Benson always does - ran for under 4.0 yard per carry. His 28 yards on eight carries (3.5 ypc) does little to inspire those that have been burned by the former first-round bust in the past. Speaking of busts - okay, possible busts - Reggie Bush continues to show he makes an outstanding slot receiver for a running back, carrying three times and gaining 15 feet.

San Francisco 17, Denver 16: Disaster, thy name is Kyle Orton. Fantasy owners will need to see more than three interceptions in 16 passes from the new Broncos signal-caller before embracing him on their roster. So too will Denver fans. For the Niners, tight end Vernon Davis proved he could get downfield a bit, with two receptions for 41 yards.

Detroit 27, Atlanta 26: Not much happened to speak of for the Falcons, besides losing to Detroit after being up by nine with under 3:00 to play. Preseason or not, that’s a poor way to start. A much better way to start is by doing what Michael Turner did, running for 63 yards and a score on six carries. Matthew Stafford was a bit up and down for the Lions, connecting on half of his 14 passes, throwing for a score but also tossing a pick.

Buffalo 27, Chicago 20: Not the greatest of beginnings for Jay Cutler. While he wasn’t as terrible as the man he switched teams with, he completed just five of his 10 passes and threw an awful interception, chucking the ball in the air after feeling some pressure. Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards was very good, however, despite not having Terrell Owens. He completed each of the 10 throws he made.

Green Bay 17, Cleveland 0: Some sizzling quarterback race in Cleveland. Brady Quinn did complete seven of his 11 passes, but for only 68 yards, and he also tossed an interception. Derek Anderson, meanwhile, threw twice and completed one - to the wrong team. All the Green Bay running backs did a nice job, and it was good to see Brandon Jackson - a must-handcuff to Ryan Grant - deliver 41 yards on eight carries.

Tennessee 27, Tampa Bay 20: Little seemed to have been done to uncoil the quarterback situation in Tampa, as Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman and Luke McCown were each okay. For the Titans, rookie wideout Kenny Britt started off with a bang, with five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. He’s definitely someone to look out for in the rookie wide receiver class.

Houston 16, Kansas City 10: Someone needs to be the backup and possible handcuff to Steve Slaton, and both Ryan Moats and Chris Brown got off to solid starts. Moats ran the ball 10 times for 52 yards, while Brown carried it six times for 25 yards and a score. On the Chiefs side, not much could be taken away from the start Matt Cassel had, as he completed just two of his five throws.

Seattle 20, San Diego 14: Neither T.J. Duckett nor Julius Jones ran for 4.0 yards per carry in what could be a sign of things to come this season in the Seattle running game. Then again, neither did LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproles in this contest that told very little about either team’s stars.

When you think of the big offseason moves, the first ones that come to mind are TO to Buffalo, Cutler to Chicago, and Gonzales to the Falcons.  While all those are important personnel changes for their new teams, what may be just as important are the scheme (coaching) changes made throughout the league.  Including former interim coaches Tom Cable of Oakland and Mike Singletary of San Francisco, eleven teams will have new head coaches in 2009.  Not counting the vacant offensive coordinator positions in New England, Oakland, and Arizona, eight teams will have new offensive coordinators in 2009 and many of them will be bringing in different schemes than what was in place before.  This is the first part of a four-part series that details how knowing an offensive scheme can go a long way in predicting player performance.

Cleveland [HC: Mangini (Jets), OC: Daboll (Jets)]
The forecast of the Browns depends entirely on who’s playing quarterback.  If it’s Anderson then expect to see the 2009 Browns resembling the 2006-2007 Jets with Chad Pennington at quarterback as Mangini would use a conservative approach with the offense.  But if Quinn wins the job, seeing how his physical tools are similar to Brett Favre’s, expect the Browns to air it out more in ‘09 which means more touchdowns, but also more interceptions.
The backfields between the 2008 Jets and 2009 Browns are eerily similar.

Jamal Lewis becomes Mangini’s next 30-year-old running back to try to re-invigorate and Jerome Harrison, who averaged 7.2 ypc in ‘08, fills Leon Washington’s third down role.  The problem is that Jamal Lewis’ resurgent season happened two years ago and he enters 2009 with 740 more carries than what Jones entered 2008 with.  Don’t expect an increase across the board like Jones had, but as the definitive goal-line back, Lewis will certainly score more than the four touchdowns he had last year.  As far as the other former pro bowler on offense, Braylon Edwards, he cannot possibly be worse than he was last year.  He would be an absolute steal as a WR2 on your team so if he’s available in the mid-rounds then jump on him.  Without Kellen Winslow garnering the safety’s attention, and with a rookie lining up as the other receiver, Edwards will be double teamed more often than before.  But he still has the talent to be what Jerricho Cotchery was not-a consistent down the field receiver.  He may never score 16 touchdowns again in a season like he did in 2007 but I think the nearly 1300 yards he put up that season is attainable.

Early reports out of training camp are that Steve Heiden is starting at tight end and Mike Furrey is lining up opposite Edwards.  However, both those positions have young players in Martin Rucker and Brian Robiskie at TE and WR, respectively, ready to take up those roles.  The veterans may give way to their younger counterparts at some point during the season but currently, none of those four is worth putting in your lineup.

Kansas City [HC: Haley (Cardinals), OC: Gailey (Chiefs)]
Even though Kansas City retained offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, their offense is essentially starting over.  Gailey employed the spread offense to utilize QB Tyler Thigpen’s running ability and his team’s lack of talent.  Now with Matt Cassel at quarterback and with all plays going through Haley, the Chiefs will have a more traditional look on offense-if you consider three-receiver sets traditional.  Cassel’s biggest problems are his inabaility to avoid sacks and his lack of accuracy when throwing the deep ball.  That combined with a lesser talented receiving core mean that his numbers will dip in 2009.

Larry Johnson will undertake the Edgerrin James role of the unhappy running back.  But LJ still is a much better runner than what Edge ever was in Arizona.  He won’t come anywhere near the dominance he had in 2005-2006 but he should once again become a 1000 yard rusher, assuming he stays healthy.  Also, don’t forget about all the touchdowns Tim Hightower scored last year for Arizona (10).  Those scoring opportunities fall into the hands of Johnson and as with Braylon Edwards, LJ could be another steal of a draft pick.

Veteran receivers Amani Toomer and Bobby Engram will be the second and third receivers, respectively, in Todd Haley’s base offense but neither offers much fantasy value at these points in their careers.  Haley also doesn’t think much of tight ends so Brad Cottam has minimal value except for occasional red zone looks.  The one receiver who will have an impact is Dwayne Bowe.  His physical features and skill set are most similar to Anquan Boldin among all of the Cardinals receivers.  Yet Bowe has more speed although that may somewhat be negated by Cassel’s inaccurate deep throw.  Nonetheless, Bowe will have plenty of reception opportunities as Kansas City will often be down late in games.  Common belief says receivers don’t truly break out until their third season and after Bowe posted 1000 yards in ’08, I can’t wait to see what he can do with some quarterback stability in 2009.

• Joseph Addai has had one 100-yard rushing game in the Colts last 24 regular season games.
• For those in leagues that reward long runs (40+ yards) – Clinton Portis has not had a rush of at least 40 yards in his last 919 carries, dating back to Week 13 of the 2005 season.
• Jerious Norwood has 297 career carries and has 6 runs over 40 yards.
• In 641 career touches, Adrian Peterson (Minn.) has lost seven fumbles, or one fumble lost per every 91.5 touches.
• LaDainian Tomlinson has not lost a fumble in his last 984 touches.
• In his two starts since 2007 replacing Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson has 287 total yards and has averaged 5.1 ypc.; Lynch will miss the first 3 games of the season.
• Peyton Manning has had as many rushing touchdowns (8) as Julius Jones has had over the last three seasons.
• For his career during the months of September, October, and November, Tony Romo has thrown 67 touchdowns and 27 interceptions.  In December Romo has thrown 14 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.
• The only players who had more rushing yards than Kevin Smith’s 671 over the last 8 weeks of the 2008 season were DeAngelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Steve Slaton, and Thomas Jones.
• As everyone fawns over Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald; don’t forget about Steve Smith (Car.) as all he did was lead the NFL in receiving yards per game with 101.5.

• The only tight end with more receiving yards than Zach Miller’s 457 over the last 8 games of the season was Tony Gonzales.
• Besides the yards and TDs, another reason why Peyton Manning is the most consistent fantasy performer is his lack of fumbles.  Manning has lost only 7 fumbles over the last 7 years.
• Kurt Warner lost 7 fumbles last season alone.
• In two years in New England, Randy Moss has a yards per reception average of 15.0 with Tom Brady and Matt Cassel at QB.
• In two years in Oakland, Randy Moss had a yards per reception average of 15.3 with Kerry Collins, Marques Tuiasosopo, Aaron Brooks, and Andrew Walter at QB.
• Through Week 13 Matt Ryan had thrown only 6 interceptions.  In games played after week 13 Ryan threw 7 interceptions.
• I’d hate to pile on Ryan again, but in 4 games vs. top-10 defenses in total yards allowed, Ryan had 3 TDs and 6 INTs.
• The Falcons will play 7 games vs. top-10 defenses in 2009.
• There were only 3 players who had at least 80 tackles and 8 sacks last year, two whom you might expect-James Harrison and DeMarcus Ware, and one you wouldn’t expect-Bradie James.  More on this statistic can be found in this blog.
• Robbie Gould has made more field goals (89) over the last three seasons than any other kicker, but he has never made one of at least 50 yards in his career in 128 attempts.

This is a continuation and the third part of a series of four posts dedicated to quarterbacks. Click to read part one, part two, and part four.

13. Matt Schaub - Matt Schaub might be one of the most underrated fantasy quarterbacks you can find for one reason: injuries. Schaub is incredibly prone to not finishing seasons. In fact, since becoming a starting quarterback in 2007 he hasn’t finished a season with more than 11 starts. Last season, for example, he was on pace for 4,400 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns. Unfortunately, he was set back to just a tad over 3,000 yards and 15 touchdowns because of injuries. If 2009 is the year he finishes with 16 starts, he might be one of the best values you’ll find in your fantasy draft. 

14. Matt Ryan - Ryan posted incredible rookie numbers last season and the addition of Tony Gonzalez makes him an even more tantalizing option at quarterback. However, it seems unlikely the Falcons will throw the ball significantly more this season. All indication from the coaching staff is that this remains a run-first team. Only if the defense struggles will Ryan be counted on to throw the ball more often. Until then, he is an excellent option as a QB2.

15. Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck struggled with a back injury throughout last season, but he’s only one year removed from the best statistical season of his career. Throw in the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and you have a quarterback with loads of potential. Though I think it’s unlikely he’ll finish with more than 3,400 passing yards or 22 touchdowns, he is a solid backup fantasy quarterback. And who knows? Maybe he will reach the stratosphere again in 2009.

16. Kyle Orton - It’s hard to look at Orton and get a good feel for his potential in 2009. After all, we’ve only watched him play for Chicago, where quarterbacks’ careers go to the wayside. Being in Denver now, where Jay Cutler was stellar last season, one might assume Orton is in for a big career boost. That may be true, but there are troubling issues stemming from Brandon Marshall. That having been said, Josh McDaniels seems to know his quarterbacks, having coached Tom Brady and Matt Cassel. Hopefully some of that will rub off on Orton.

17. Matt Cassel - Just as it’s difficult to rank Orton, it’s just as hard to figure out Cassel. Yes, he had a solid season in 2008, but would any quarterback have struggled in that offense? Remember, just a year before Tom Brady took advantage of those receivers to throw 50 touchdowns. If Cassel was a “product of the system” he’s in for a rude awakening in 2009, as are fantasy players who draft him. The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t had a great passing game in some time, and the departure of the team’s best target, Tony Gonzalez, only bodes poorly for Cassel.

18. Trent Edwards - The addition of Terrell Owens gives Edwards all the talent he needs to be successful, assuming he gets the protection he desires from the offensive line. The addition of Owens also gives wide receiver Lee Evans the opportunity to focus on his role as the big-play receiver, someone who finishes with 60 catches, as Evans did last season, but also averages 15-18 yards per catch. If Edwards plays a complete season and is able to fully utilize the receivers he has, there’s no doubt in my mind he’s capable of hitting 3,000 yards and 17-18 touchdowns without breaking a sweat.