Week 1 of the NFL’s preseason has come, and while every football fan probably watched their team with at least some level of interest, fantasy owners in particular were likely examining what information they could glean out of the contests. To aid in that pursuit, let’s take a look at the games played so far (there are two Monday night games – Jacksonville at Miami and Carolina at NY Giants) and the fantasy consequences of each.

New England 27, Philadelphia 25: One Mr. Bundchen, Tom Brady, was back to his old tricks, going 10-of-15 for 100 yards, one touchdown pass and one interception while staying healthy, which was just fine. It was interesting that Patriots tight end Chris Baker was on the receiving end of both of Brady’s scoring passes. As for Philly, rookie running back LeSean McCoy’s 10 carries for 55 yards made all those that will handcuff him to Brian Westbrook feel good.

Baltimore 23, Washington 0: At least Baltimore’s defense was in mid-season form. Washington did very little, and had just 48 offensive plays all night. In contrast, the Ravens had 54 passing plays, 15 of which came from Joe Flacco, who did a solid job by completing nine of them. On the running back front, Ray Rice (whose fantasy points from last year you can see on the right) carried the ball five times for 22 yards and Willis McGahee toted the rock four times for 26 yards, but Rice’s three catches for 38 yards trumped McGahee’s one catch for seven yards, and is a further indication why Rice is the favorite to be the starting running back.

Pittsburgh 20, Arizona 10: It was ho-hum for Arizona, but worth noting was that Matt Leinart was a bit better than Brian St. Pierre in the battle for that team’s backup job. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall didn’t do himself any favors by running for only 2.7 yards per carry on nine attempts, but wideouts Shaun McDonald and Limas Sweed were productive. Sweed has big-time potential, but he was useless last season, and needs to step up this year. Still, he’s someone fantasy owners may want to keep in the back of their minds.

Oakland 31, Dallas 10: Dallas wideout Sam Hurd made the most noise by far in the team’s wide receiver battle, as he caught five passes for 79 yards, while no other wideout caught more than one pass. Darren McFadden used a 45-yard rumble to amass 63 yards on just four carries, showing the type of explosiveness that makes fantasy owners believe he can have a breakout campaign.

St. Louis 23, NY Jets 20: Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez played just one series, but that was enough for him to complete three of his four throws for 88 yards and be named the starter in the team’s next preseason game. For the Rams, the early battle for the team’s No. 2 running back job is being led by Samkon Gado, who ran for 93 yards, including one 77-yard touchdown gallop.

Minnesota 13, Indianapolis 3: Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good by completing 10 of his 13 passes for the Vikings, while the man he is battling for the starting QB job, Tarvaris Jackson, completed only seven of his 15 throws. Rookie runner Donald Brown started off nicely for the Colts, running the ball five times for and excellent 58 yards, including a 38-yard tote.

New Orleans 17, Cincinnati 7: Cedric Benson did what Cedric Benson always does - ran for under 4.0 yard per carry. His 28 yards on eight carries (3.5 ypc) does little to inspire those that have been burned by the former first-round bust in the past. Speaking of busts - okay, possible busts - Reggie Bush continues to show he makes an outstanding slot receiver for a running back, carrying three times and gaining 15 feet.

San Francisco 17, Denver 16: Disaster, thy name is Kyle Orton. Fantasy owners will need to see more than three interceptions in 16 passes from the new Broncos signal-caller before embracing him on their roster. So too will Denver fans. For the Niners, tight end Vernon Davis proved he could get downfield a bit, with two receptions for 41 yards.

Detroit 27, Atlanta 26: Not much happened to speak of for the Falcons, besides losing to Detroit after being up by nine with under 3:00 to play. Preseason or not, that’s a poor way to start. A much better way to start is by doing what Michael Turner did, running for 63 yards and a score on six carries. Matthew Stafford was a bit up and down for the Lions, connecting on half of his 14 passes, throwing for a score but also tossing a pick.

Buffalo 27, Chicago 20: Not the greatest of beginnings for Jay Cutler. While he wasn’t as terrible as the man he switched teams with, he completed just five of his 10 passes and threw an awful interception, chucking the ball in the air after feeling some pressure. Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards was very good, however, despite not having Terrell Owens. He completed each of the 10 throws he made.

Green Bay 17, Cleveland 0: Some sizzling quarterback race in Cleveland. Brady Quinn did complete seven of his 11 passes, but for only 68 yards, and he also tossed an interception. Derek Anderson, meanwhile, threw twice and completed one - to the wrong team. All the Green Bay running backs did a nice job, and it was good to see Brandon Jackson - a must-handcuff to Ryan Grant - deliver 41 yards on eight carries.

Tennessee 27, Tampa Bay 20: Little seemed to have been done to uncoil the quarterback situation in Tampa, as Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman and Luke McCown were each okay. For the Titans, rookie wideout Kenny Britt started off with a bang, with five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. He’s definitely someone to look out for in the rookie wide receiver class.

Houston 16, Kansas City 10: Someone needs to be the backup and possible handcuff to Steve Slaton, and both Ryan Moats and Chris Brown got off to solid starts. Moats ran the ball 10 times for 52 yards, while Brown carried it six times for 25 yards and a score. On the Chiefs side, not much could be taken away from the start Matt Cassel had, as he completed just two of his five throws.

Seattle 20, San Diego 14: Neither T.J. Duckett nor Julius Jones ran for 4.0 yards per carry in what could be a sign of things to come this season in the Seattle running game. Then again, neither did LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproles in this contest that told very little about either team’s stars.

We Americans love our projections, whether they are being used for something as salient as election night or in a relatively less important way, like for fantasy football (shameless plug alert: get 2009 NFL player projections from Sports Data Hub via Twitter).

However, projections can be tricky, and are best used as part of a more engaging process of collecting information. Nobody out there projected Steve Slaton to run for nearly 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns last season, or for Antonio Bryant to accumulate over 1,200 receiving yards after not playing the previous year. So let’s travel down the unbeaten path for a while and make some rather bold predictions about the upcoming fantasy season. Just remember, use these as guidelines, and hopefully we’ll steer you in the right direction.

Shonn Greene Will Lead NFL Rookies in Touchdowns: What you see in the graph below are Thomas Jones’s touchdown runs per week over the past three seasons. You may notice something of a disparity there. In 32 games in 2006 and 2007, Jones scored in only six separate contests. Then last year, out of nowhere, he put the ball in the end zone in nine separate weeks. Which one looks like the aberration? Jones, at age 31, is due for the inevitable running back slowdown, and Leon Washington is better suited as a third-down back for the Jets. Enter the 230-pound Greene, a rookie from Iowa. He’ll become the team’s primary goal-line threat, and this year’s version of Le’Ron McClain, someone new Jets head coach and former Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is quite familiar with.

Matt Leinart Will Become Fantasy Relevant: Forget all this hubbub about Leinart in a battle with Brian St. Pierre for the backup job to Kurt Warner in Arizona; Leinart will be second on the depth chart. There are red flags surrounding Warner this season, entirely due to his health. He’s 38 years old, and last season was the first time since 2001 he played in 16 games. He had off-season hip surgery, and the malady is still bothering him, and will limit his play in the preseason. At some point during the year, Warner will be sidelined, and Leinart will take over the offense.

Steven Jackson Will be No. 1 in Fantasy Points at the End of the Season: Jackson is one of the most dynamic players in football, though he’s gone somewhat unnoticed because he’s wallowed in the dregs of a dysfunctional Rams team and front office that mustered just five wins the past two seasons. He suffered injuries during both of those years and missed four games in each of them. However, in 2005 and 2006, Jackson missed just one of the team’s 32 contests, and racked up a total of 3,700 yards and 26 touchdowns. This season, he is the unquestioned offensive leader of a club that has seen it’s No. 1 receiver, Donnie Avery, already go down for what could be the start of the regular season. He’ll be relied on heavily to move the chains and put the ball in the end zone, and will succeed behind a new, more rugged offensive line.

Eli Manning Will Not Throw for 20 Touchdowns: Manning the younger has thrown for at least 20 scores in each of the past four seasons, but his totals have fallen each of the past three years. The loss of Plaxico Burress cannot be understated. In the six games, including the playoffs, that Burress was not with the Giants last year, Manning tossed only three scores and six interceptions and threw for at least 200 yards just once. While first-round pick Hakeem Nicks could very well become a star, rookie wideouts in the NFL very rarely come in and make a huge impact. The rest of the wide receiver corps is underwhelming at best, so expect the Giants to put an even bigger emphasis on the running game inside the red zone, with fullback Madison Hedgecock leading the way for the talented triumvirate of Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw and rookie Andre Brown.

Throughout the next few weeks, we will be going over the fantasy value for the quarterbacks in each NFL division. Our series starts with the NFC West, a division that is frequently considered an also-ran by many pundits, due to having at least one and often two terrible teams. However, on a more positive note, the league has had two Super Bowl representatives over the last four years, though both the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals came up empty. One common thread with those teams? Both had big years from their quarterbacks.

Arizona Cardinals: There were few quarterbacks better than Kurt Warner in 2008. After not being assured of the starting job coming into training camp, he quickly established himself over Matt Leinart, who is quickly reaching bust status. Warner was second in the NFL in passing yards, with 4,583, and completion percentage with a mark of 67.1. He was also third in the league with 30 touchdown tosses and a sterling 96.9 QB rating. Warner will go into the fantasy season as a QB1 for sure, but not without some concern. For one thing, the Northern Iowa product will be 38 years old, which is about 80 years old in football years. And like many 80 year-olds, Warner needed hip surgery in the offseason. Thankfully, it wasn’t a replacement, but the point remains, health is an issue for him. In his 11-year-career, Warner has played a full 16-game schedule just three times, and one of those was last season. Owners who draft Warner would be wise to snatch up a high-end QB2 to pair with him this season.

St. Louis Rams: Wherever the former Pro Bowl player went in Marc Bulger, Rams fans and fantasy owners itching for another good QB option sure would like to see him return. Over the last two years, the battered 32-year-old has thrown 22 touchdown passes and 28 interceptions. To compound that fact, the normally highly accurate signal-caller has not completed 60 percent of this throws in either of those two seasons. However, the Rams have re-tooled their offensive line with a new center in Jason Brown and a new tackle in No. 2 overall pick Jason Smith in an attempt to keep the oft-sacked Bulger upright. If, and only if, that happens, and Steven Jackson has a monster year, it’s plausible Bulger could be a serviceable QB2 during the year. But he should go undrafted at the start.

 San Francisco 49ers: Speaking of going undrafted, that’s where all San Francisco quarterbacks should be. Fantasy owners will undoubtedly be tempted to pick up Shaun Hill as a QB2, but that may not be the wisest move. Remember, Mike Martz is no longer the offensive coordinator, and head coach Mike Singletary is preaching a run-first offense surrounding Frank Gore. Add to that the fact that the 49ers’ receivers are either nearing the end of their careers (Isaac Bruce) or just starting them (Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan), and you have some possible rough times ahead for quarterbacks in San Francisco.

Seattle Seahawks: There’s something about the NFC West and aging quarterbacks with injury problems, because this is round three of that dilemma. Matt Hasselbeck was one of the ultimate fantasy busts of 2008, as he played in just seven games, completed a miserable 52.2 percent of his throws, and passed for only five scores with 10 interceptions. This, coming off a 2007 in which he threw for nearly 4,000 yards with 28 scores and just 12 picks. Many fantasy owners were burned by Hasselbeck, and for that many fantasy owners have dropped him off of QB1 status and firmly into a QB2. Considering that he is 33, and had back issues last season, which can linger more so than, say, a broken arm, you would be wise to follow suit. Hasselbeck definitely deserves a spot on fantasy rosters, but depending on him is a gamble that isn’t worth taking.

Poor Matt Leinart; the guy can’t catch a break with new head coach Ken Whisenhunt. In a new development in Arizona, the Cardinals are rumored to have reached a new decision at quarterback: Kurt Warner is going to start this season.

Ouch.

Well, at least the decision came before the season. Last year I cringed whenever I saw that Leinart had been pulled from a game. To pull your young starter from one game when he’s struggling? Not the worst idea, but it’s sometimes a better idea to let him finish the game. Still, it’s a judgment call for the coach and I can respect the decision. But to pull your inexperienced quarterback from consecutive starts? What the heck? Honestly, I had never heard of a coach doing that prior to last season.
I’m not a psychology major, so I’m not certain how it affects a young player when his new head coach pulls him from half the games he starts because he’s struggling, but I’m going to go ahead and venture a guess that it takes a toll on his level of confidence. In fact, who knows how long this would have gone on last season if Leinart’s season hadn’t ended in week five when he suffered a season-ending injury?

Alright, with that off my chest, I’m going to reiterate that I’m happy the decision was reached now. And I can understand it; Leinart struggled mightily week three of this preseason, going 4-for-12 and throwing three interceptions. To be fair, he was statastically pretty good during the first two weeks of preseason, completing 14-of-19 for 153 yards and touchdown. Warner, meanwhile, has completed 62 percent of his passes for 94 yards (no touchdowns-interceptions) in two preseason games and has looked pretty solid in his limited time.

Obviously, this decision goes deeper than preseason, and I must admit that it’s a little surprising to me. I understand it, but I didn’t expect it. Whisenhunt has taken every opportunity to back up Leinart, his work ethic, and his offseason progress this year, only to make this move after three exhibition games, of which only one Leinart played poorly.

Is this the right decision? I believe that Warner gives Arizona the best opportunity to win. How it affects the future of this franchise, I don’t know. After all, Warner - who turned 37 earlier this summer - proved he can play last season, but for how long?

Also, I think quarterback should be on the back burner until this team can find a way to appease its wide receivers. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin have asked to be traded at different points this offseason, and it seems likely that Boldin will be moved very soon. His thoughts on Whisenhunt: he has no relationship with the coach. The absence of Boldin, the team’s possession receiver and one of the toughest wide receivers to bring down, will adversely affect whoever is throwing the football.

From a fantasy football perspective, I think this does improve the stock of Fitzgerald. Warner is a more experienced quarterback than Leinart and someone who can put up bigger numbers. At the same time, I don’t think Warner is capable of putting up last season’s numbers without Boldin and Bryant Johnson.

It’s unknown how the team as a whole views its head coach and how its players will react to him in year two. I wonder how many players feel as disconnected to him as Boldin? In any case, this looks like a team poised to struggle in 2008.

I’ve noticed lately that a lot of fantasy football pundits are a bit nervous to rate Matt Leinart as a top twenty fantasy quarterback and for good reason: they got burned last season. Ken Whisenhunt toyed with fantasy owners (and his quarterbacks) until Leinart’s season was ended prematurely due to a broken clavicle.

But that was last season. I agree that it’s something of a risk to draft Leinart because there’s no guarantee Whisenhunt will stick with any one quarterback for an entire game, much less an entire season. Having said that, the truth is, drafting Leinart is a relatively minor risk because his value is so low right now. Some don’t even project him as a QB2 in a 12-team league, meaning it’s conceivable he goes undrafted.

Now, I’m not sure if it’s because some don’t like Leinart’s hard-partying lifestyle or because they really believe Warner is going to steal a ton of reps, but I have to say, if you find Leinart in the final rounds of your draft, he’s a more than adequate backup.

Here’s why: though Coach Whisenhunt hasn’t ruled out the possibility of a dual-quarterback system in 2008, I don’t think he’ll resort to it again. He’s defended his SoCal quarterback at every opportunity and insists that Leinart has made serious strides in the offseason. Now, how much of that is merely coach-speak and how much is true is up to interpretation. Still, I have to believe that Leinart is going to get the starting duties (throughout games) his third season.

And if Leinart is as competitive as he should be, I don’t think he’s going to let a 37-year old quarterback steal his job again this season. I think he’s committed to improving himself, and earning the starting spot. Warner is going to push him and that’s going to improve his work ethic and determination. And those are two things all NFL quarterback ought to have.

Keep in mind: if Leinart does start the entire season, he’s in a situation where he could potentially do some special things. He has targets - Fitz and Boldin - and a running game that should distract defenses. If he starts 16 games, I have no doubt he’ll throw for at least 3,200 yards and 18-20 touchdowns. But that’s the risk; you don’t know how many games he’ll start or, more importantly, finish.

Now, I should point out that this post is aimed at league owners in 12 or more team leagues. If you’re in an 8-team league or perhaps even a 10-team league, I think that you should pick others before Leinart, until he actually proves himself. But in those larger leagues I think the playboy quarterback is worth a second look and a late round pick.