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Posts Tagged ‘Matthew Stafford’

$ Week 6 Fantasy Football Preview: Detroit at Green Bay

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

Overview

The 1-4 Lions are far from a consistent club this season, but their offense has surprised a lot of folks by scoring 19 or more points in four games and 24+ twice. That’s not to say it’s been good, but mediocrity isn’t the worst when a team was 0-16 the season before.

Green Bay has scored at least 20 points in every game this season and ranks eighth in scoring offense. Sadly, such compliments can’t be said of the defense which hasn’t showed up since week one when it intercepted Jay Cutler four times. Since then it has forced three interceptions while allowing 26 points per game. It’s resulted in a 2-2 record with one clear line of distinction between wins and losses: opponents average 16 points in wins and 31 points in losses.

Injuries

Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford (Knee), RB Maurice Morris (hip), and WR Calvin Johnson (thigh) are questionable, and Stafford will be a game-time decision.

Green Bay: LT Chad Clifton (ankle), DE Cullen Jenkins (Ankle), and DT Ryan Pickett (Hip) have all had limited participation in practice; it is unlikely recently signed tackle Mark Tauscher will be ready to play this week

When Detroit has the Ball

Much of this game will depend on the health of Mathew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, the latter of the two being the team’s single most important offensive weapon. Stafford has by-and-large improved on a weekly basis, throwing more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and raising his completion percentage, which peaked two weeks ago (his last start) at 66.7 percent against Chicago.

If Stafford is unable to play, Daunte Culpepper does a good enough job filling in, but he hasn’t played significantly better than the rookie in his limited appearances this season. Last week against Pittsburgh he looked fine, hitting on 62.2 percent of his attempts for 282 yards, one touchdown, and one interceptions, but those numbers look eerily similar to Stafford’s the week before: 66.7 completion percentage, 296 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

The one thing Culpepper might bring to the table is better consistency. Stafford has been improving throughout the season, but a game at Lambeau might have pushed him off course a bit. Culpepper has played at Lambeau a number of times in his career and has enough experience to know what to do with the football.

Unless Calvin Johnson returns, however, whoever is playing quarterback is going to struggle unless Kevin Smith gets things going on the ground. Smith has rushed for a combined 83 yards the past two weeks on 39 carries, averaging just a tad over two yards per hand-off. That stands in stark contrast to his combined totals the two weeks prior (weeks 2 and 3) when he rushed for 184 yards on 40 carries.

His lack of consistency (for example, he scored two of his three rushing touchdowns against the Bears, when he averaged 1.6 yards per carry) has been a struggle throughout the season for Detroit, but fantasy players have mostly reaped benefits. His diversified talents (he has 143 receiving yards and 287 rushing yards) have enabled him to score at least nine fantasy points every week this season, as he averages 86 yards from scrimmage per game and .6 touchdowns (about 12 fantasy points per week).

Green Bay’s defense has forced a lot of turnovers this season, accounting for their +7 net ratio. Unfortunately, they’ve been incredibly inconsistent this season, too. Expect Detroit to face the kind of defense the Packers played against St. Louis; they’ll give up a fair number of yards, but mostly keep the Lions off the board.

When Green Bay has the Ball

The Packers must protect Aaron Rodgers in the pocket or establish a running game, or this offense will never reach the potential is displayed in the preseason. Rodgers is by far the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this season, having tasted grass 20 times in four games. The fact he also remains one of the league’s most prolific passers in spite of that startling number is a testament to his abilities and confidence as a quarterback. Few in the NFL can scramble as well as Rodgers, who has over 100 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown already. If he was as stiff in the pocket as many quarterbacks, he would have been sacked at least another 10-15 times.

His primary target this season has been the sure-handed Donald Driver who struggled week one but has since turned things around. Driver has 18 receptions for 288 yards and two touchdowns this season, and in weeks two and three he had 10 receptions for 194 yards and two scores.

Aside from Driver, however, there isn’t another true standout yet this season. Defenses have focused a lot of attention on Greg Jennings, who has been held to 11 receptions and one touchdown, while last season’s breakout Donald Lee has struggled to this point with just 74 receiving yards. But if Jermichael Finley’s limited time as a receiving tight end is any indication, he’s going to grow in this offense. Against Minnesota he caught 6 passes for 128 yards and one touchdown and was a big reason the Packers were able to hang with the Vikings at all.

The Advantage

Green Bay is at home and has looked good against inferior teams this season. They must protect Aaron Rodgers this week; without doubt he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when he has time to throw the ball. Pass defense hasn’t been a strong suit for the Lions this season, either, so expect a big week for Rodgers and Co.

Fantasy Booms and Busts

Boom! Aaron Rodgers is going to light up the Lions this week if the Packers can offer any kind of protection. Expect Donald Driver to benefit in a big way, and don’t be surprised if the team goes underneath to Jermichael Finley too. He’s a big target with good hands and great athleticism.

Bust! Matthew Stafford and Daunte Culpepper are both prone to throwing interceptions, and Green Bay’s defense has forced seven this season. If they can get pressure to Culpepper, they’ll also rack up a lot of sacks; his body moves like a statue.

$ Fantasy Football Preview: Detroit at Chicago

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

Overview

The Detroit Lions (1-2) are hot off their first win since December, 2007, and are traveling to Chicago in hopes of getting their first division win since October 28, 2007. Coincidentally, that win was against the Bears.

Chicago (2-1) is hot off two consecutive wins and is enjoying the presence of star quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bears have outscored their opponents by just nine points the past two weeks and both games were won after fourth quarter go-ahead drives led by Jay Cutler. This week they hope to spoil the Lions’ good spirits while getting their first division win of the season.

When Detroit has the ball …

… watch to see how often the Bears blitz and bring pressure to Matthew Stafford. The rookie quarterback has five interceptions this season, and last week was the first he didn’t throw a pick. It was also his second consecutive game with a touchdown pass; he has two this season.

It certainly seems as if he is progressing at a rapid pace. Since his week one shock against the Saints, Stafford has completed nearly 60 percent of his passes for nearly 400 yards and 2 touchdowns/interceptions. When he’s under pressure, however, Stafford rushes his throws and makes poor decisions. If the Bears can pressure him and get some hits in (sacks or not), he’ll struggle to maintain composure.

No doubt Detroit will try to establish a running game to keep Chicago’s defense honest. The Lions are ranked 7th in running attempts this season, and over the past two weeks Kevin Smith’s numbers have been most impressive: 40 carries for 184 yards and one touchdown. Chicago’s defense ranks 13th in yards and 15th in yards per carry. It won’t be easy for Detroit to run the football, but the absence of Bears star linebacker Brian Urlacher is certainly an advantage for the Lions.

When Chicago has the ball …

… Jay Cutler needs to continue making smart decisions. After a rocky start week one, Cutler’s decision-making has improved tenfold. He’s checking down to receivers running shorter routes, and the Bears passing game is much more methodical. Cutler has completed over 70 percent of his passes each of the past two weeks, and he’s thrown five touchdowns to just one interception.

His favorite targets have varied on a week-to-week basis, but the three emerging stars at wide receiver are Devin Hester (as expected), Earl Bennett (Cutler’s college teammate), and Johnnie Knox. The last of those names has surprised defenses with his sure hands and blazing speed, and over the past two weeks he’s caught two touchdown passes. Meanwhile, Bennett and Hester both lead the team with 13 receptions this season, while Hester is the only one with a touchdown (he has two).

Perhaps the biggest surprise this season is the absence of Chicago’s running game. Matt Forte has carried 59 times for just 150 yards this season. His 2.5 yards per carry average is startling, and one wonders when he’ll turn it around. This week is a prime opportunity, as the Lions have allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season.

Advantage

Chicago has a significant advantage, especially at home. It will be interesting to see how Detroit follows up its first win in more than a season, but traveling to Chicago will be difficult with Jay Cutler’s confidence flying high.

Fantasy Football Booms and Busts

Boom: Jay Cutler — Cutler has passed for 483 yards and five touchdowns in his past two starts. His rapport with the wide receivers is growing, and Detroit’s secondary remains very suspect. The Lions are ranked 30th in passing yards allowed and 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed this season. Expect Cutler to shred them.

Bust: Matthew Stafford — Stafford’s season is turning around, but this game will be as difficult as any he plays this season. He’s traveling to Chicago where the Bears rank 5th in passing touchdowns allowed and 7th in net passing yards per attempt (yards per attempt adjusted for sacks). Stafford is poised for a rough outing.

Fantasy Overview – Preseason Week 2

Monday, August 24th, 2009

In three weeks, the NFL season will have arrived in full force. Until then, however, we’ll have to deal with exhibition contests in which players that won’t even be on practice squads have a lot to do with the final score. Still, there is fantasy information to be gleaned from these games, so let’s examine the proceedings that took place over the weekend.

Cincinnati 7, New England 6: A particularly meaningless contest that left fantasy owners in the cold about the progress of Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, who did not play due to his injury, most people probably only know that Chad Ochocinco kicked off once and also kicked an extra point. From a fantasy perspective, if looking for a runner to handcuff to Bengals starter Cedric Benson, Dede Dorsey ran four times for 60 yards while Brian Leonard carried the rock seven times for 34 yards, and is considered the favorite for the backup job.

Indianapolis 23, Philadelphia 15: Not very encouraging numbers running the ball for either team, as Eagles rookie LeSean McCoy managed just four yards on five carries, and Colts rookie Donald Brown posting similar numbers with five yards on three carries. Still, McCoy is an absolute necessity as a handcuff to Brian Westbrook, though you may have to take him earlier than you like in order to ensure a spot for him on your roster. As for Brown, he’s a popular pick to become the Colts’ full-time back this season, even with the presence of Joseph Addai. That may be pushing it, but 700-800 yards and five or so scores are realistic expectations.

Dallas 30, Tennessee 10: Most of the news surrounding this game is the hilarious fact that the brand-spankin’ new $1 billion stadium the Cowboys play in has a $40 million scoreboard that punters can shell with the ball when booting it away because it sits too low. Nice attention to detail there. As for game action, there was a lot for fantasy owners to like about what Cowboys gunslinger Tony Romo did, connecting on 18-of-24 passes for 192 yards. On the other side, Vince Young’s encouraging performance in the Titans’ first preseason game gave way to a performance that saw him go 3-for-9 for 33 yards and an interception.

Atlanta 20, St. Louis 13: Michael Turner was in 2008 form, running for 65 yards and one touchdown on the first series of the game before having a seat the rest of the night, so no worries there (except for the Rams defense, which nobody in their right mind would use in fantasy). For St. Louis, wideout Laurent Robinson continues what has been an impressive showing throughout camp with five catches for 65 yards. He’s a decent sleeper choice, and certainly someone to pay attention to.

Minnesota 17, Kansas City 13: So, Brett Favre is back (see his 2008 week-by-week fantasy points in the graph below), and he really showed, well, nothing, completing one of his four throws for four yards. He should get better, obviously, but he’s still a QB2 right now. For the Chiefs, Matt Cassel’s 99 passing yards and one touchdown pass were encouraging considering some have speculated that former Patriot is losing his grip on the starting job.

Cleveland 27, Detroit 10: Matthew Stafford struggled mightily, completing just five of his 13 passes for 34 yards and an interception, taking a step back in the race for a starting gig. Even if he improves mightily the rest of the way, drafting him is a risk not worth taking. The Browns’ quarterback job is still up for grabs, and Derek Anderson showed pretty well, completing 10 of his 13 throws, but also tossing a pick. In the sleeper category, rookie running back James Davis ran the ball 12 times for 116 yards and a score, including one run for 81 yards. Jamal Lewis’s best days are behind him, and Davis is someone who has the potential to eventually get a chance to contribute.

Miami 27, Carolina 17: Chad Pennington was steady as usual, and Ronnie Brown had a nice all-around game, with 74 total yards and a touchdown on 10 touches. Many believe he’s overrated, but with his ability to both run the ball and catch it, he offers a lot of value.

Washington 17, Pittsburgh 13: Two disappointing rookies from last season were notable here. For Pittsburgh, running back Rashard Mendenhall, ran for 5.2 yards a pop, amassing 26 yards on five carries, and is someone that has the potential to unseat Willie Parker. For Washington, tight end Fred Davis was on the receiving end of two passes, hauling them in for 31 yards and a score.

Tampa Bay 24, Jacksonville 23: Running back Chauncey Washington ran the ball four times for 32 yards, making his case to be the backup to starter Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jaguars. Luke McCown threw two scores for the Buccaneers, possibly gaining some ground in the race for the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback job.

New Orleans 38, Houston 14: A solid backup for Steve Slaton has yet to emerge, as Chris Brown ran for just five yards on four carries, and Ryan Moats ran for 25 yards on nine carries.

Green Bay 31, Buffalo 21: It was a so-so performance by Trent Edwards, even though he completed seven of his 11 passes. He only amassed a paltry 45 yards on those throws, and also threw an interception.

Chicago 17, NY Giants 3: Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw, a viable RB3, showed his explosiveness with a six-carry, 54-yard performance. Meanwhile, it was a much better showing for Bears signal-caller Jay Cutler, who was 8-of-13 for 121 yards and a score.

San Francisco 21, Oakland 20: Rookie running back Glen Coffee ran for 129 yards, and has quickly established himself as the necessary handcuff to Frank Gore. Coffee leads all players in rushing this preseason with nearly 200 yards.

San Diego 17, Arizona 6: Cardinals first-round pick Beanie Wells has yet to play in a preseason contest, giving Tim Hightower an opportunity to win the starting job. He didn’t hurt himself in this game, running for 42 yards on nine carries.

Seattle 27, Denver 13: The panic surrounding Kyle Orton should have ceased, or at least lowered somewhat after he completed 18 of his 26 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown, though he also threw a pick. Matt Hasselbeck also looked very good, reminding fantasy owners of what he did two years ago by slinging the ball 23 times with 16 completions for 171 yards and two scores.

Fantasy Consequences - Week 1 of the Preseason

Monday, August 17th, 2009

Week 1 of the NFL’s preseason has come, and while every football fan probably watched their team with at least some level of interest, fantasy owners in particular were likely examining what information they could glean out of the contests. To aid in that pursuit, let’s take a look at the games played so far (there are two Monday night games – Jacksonville at Miami and Carolina at NY Giants) and the fantasy consequences of each.

New England 27, Philadelphia 25: One Mr. Bundchen, Tom Brady, was back to his old tricks, going 10-of-15 for 100 yards, one touchdown pass and one interception while staying healthy, which was just fine. It was interesting that Patriots tight end Chris Baker was on the receiving end of both of Brady’s scoring passes. As for Philly, rookie running back LeSean McCoy’s 10 carries for 55 yards made all those that will handcuff him to Brian Westbrook feel good.

Baltimore 23, Washington 0: At least Baltimore’s defense was in mid-season form. Washington did very little, and had just 48 offensive plays all night. In contrast, the Ravens had 54 passing plays, 15 of which came from Joe Flacco, who did a solid job by completing nine of them. On the running back front, Ray Rice (whose fantasy points from last year you can see on the right) carried the ball five times for 22 yards and Willis McGahee toted the rock four times for 26 yards, but Rice’s three catches for 38 yards trumped McGahee’s one catch for seven yards, and is a further indication why Rice is the favorite to be the starting running back.

Pittsburgh 20, Arizona 10: It was ho-hum for Arizona, but worth noting was that Matt Leinart was a bit better than Brian St. Pierre in the battle for that team’s backup job. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall didn’t do himself any favors by running for only 2.7 yards per carry on nine attempts, but wideouts Shaun McDonald and Limas Sweed were productive. Sweed has big-time potential, but he was useless last season, and needs to step up this year. Still, he’s someone fantasy owners may want to keep in the back of their minds.

Oakland 31, Dallas 10: Dallas wideout Sam Hurd made the most noise by far in the team’s wide receiver battle, as he caught five passes for 79 yards, while no other wideout caught more than one pass. Darren McFadden used a 45-yard rumble to amass 63 yards on just four carries, showing the type of explosiveness that makes fantasy owners believe he can have a breakout campaign.

St. Louis 23, NY Jets 20: Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez played just one series, but that was enough for him to complete three of his four throws for 88 yards and be named the starter in the team’s next preseason game. For the Rams, the early battle for the team’s No. 2 running back job is being led by Samkon Gado, who ran for 93 yards, including one 77-yard touchdown gallop.

Minnesota 13, Indianapolis 3: Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good by completing 10 of his 13 passes for the Vikings, while the man he is battling for the starting QB job, Tarvaris Jackson, completed only seven of his 15 throws. Rookie runner Donald Brown started off nicely for the Colts, running the ball five times for and excellent 58 yards, including a 38-yard tote.

New Orleans 17, Cincinnati 7: Cedric Benson did what Cedric Benson always does - ran for under 4.0 yard per carry. His 28 yards on eight carries (3.5 ypc) does little to inspire those that have been burned by the former first-round bust in the past. Speaking of busts - okay, possible busts - Reggie Bush continues to show he makes an outstanding slot receiver for a running back, carrying three times and gaining 15 feet.

San Francisco 17, Denver 16: Disaster, thy name is Kyle Orton. Fantasy owners will need to see more than three interceptions in 16 passes from the new Broncos signal-caller before embracing him on their roster. So too will Denver fans. For the Niners, tight end Vernon Davis proved he could get downfield a bit, with two receptions for 41 yards.

Detroit 27, Atlanta 26: Not much happened to speak of for the Falcons, besides losing to Detroit after being up by nine with under 3:00 to play. Preseason or not, that’s a poor way to start. A much better way to start is by doing what Michael Turner did, running for 63 yards and a score on six carries. Matthew Stafford was a bit up and down for the Lions, connecting on half of his 14 passes, throwing for a score but also tossing a pick.

Buffalo 27, Chicago 20: Not the greatest of beginnings for Jay Cutler. While he wasn’t as terrible as the man he switched teams with, he completed just five of his 10 passes and threw an awful interception, chucking the ball in the air after feeling some pressure. Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards was very good, however, despite not having Terrell Owens. He completed each of the 10 throws he made.

Green Bay 17, Cleveland 0: Some sizzling quarterback race in Cleveland. Brady Quinn did complete seven of his 11 passes, but for only 68 yards, and he also tossed an interception. Derek Anderson, meanwhile, threw twice and completed one - to the wrong team. All the Green Bay running backs did a nice job, and it was good to see Brandon Jackson - a must-handcuff to Ryan Grant - deliver 41 yards on eight carries.

Tennessee 27, Tampa Bay 20: Little seemed to have been done to uncoil the quarterback situation in Tampa, as Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman and Luke McCown were each okay. For the Titans, rookie wideout Kenny Britt started off with a bang, with five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. He’s definitely someone to look out for in the rookie wide receiver class.

Houston 16, Kansas City 10: Someone needs to be the backup and possible handcuff to Steve Slaton, and both Ryan Moats and Chris Brown got off to solid starts. Moats ran the ball 10 times for 52 yards, while Brown carried it six times for 25 yards and a score. On the Chiefs side, not much could be taken away from the start Matt Cassel had, as he completed just two of his five throws.

Seattle 20, San Diego 14: Neither T.J. Duckett nor Julius Jones ran for 4.0 yards per carry in what could be a sign of things to come this season in the Seattle running game. Then again, neither did LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproles in this contest that told very little about either team’s stars.

Three Rookies, Three Teams, Three Decisions

Thursday, July 9th, 2009

The decision to start a rookie quarterback is always tricky for the head coach. On the one hand, he feels suffocating pressure from the fans and franchise owner who expect their new toy to get playing time right off the bat. To the fans, he’s the answer to years of losing or falling short of the Super Bowl. To the owner, it’s more business than excitement: he’s the guy who cost upwards of $40 million, and every game, or worse, year, he isn’t a starter is viewed as money lost.

Gone are the days when a head coach could sign his rookie quarterback and groom him behind a quality starter. Gone are the days when a rookie had to earn every bit of respect from the fans. Today it’s “what have you done for me lately?” Expectations for both the coach and player are at an all time high, especially after last season’s history-defiant head coaches and rookie quarterbacks.

Mike Smith and Matt Ryan successfully made Atlanta Falcons fans forget about the debacle that landed their last quarterback in prison only two seasons before by making the postseason and shocking fans and media across the country.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens soared to the AFC Championship game with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco under center and John Harbaugh calling the shots from the sideline. It was a great story, reinvigorating interest in the Baltimore Ravens franchise.

Talk about raising the bar.

Unfortunately for some persons, their success has repercussions for this season. Three more rookie quarterbacks and rookie head coaches have been signed by three teams to lead their respective franchises to winning ways. Losing leads to desperation which leads to making decisions too soon. Sometimes it works and you have a Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco, but other times it’s too much too soon and you wind up with a quarterback like Tim Couch or Ryan Leaf.

Take a look at these three teams and rookie quarterbacks and decide for yourself: when should they start this season, if at all?

Detroit Lions – Rookie: Matthew Stafford – Veteran: Daunte Culpepper

Stafford was the most hyped player in the draft, a physically gifted quarterback with leadership skills. But it wasn’t unanimous praise for Stafford; he had plenty of detractors who said he wasn’t ready for the NFL because he lacked well developed decision making skills and throwing accuracy.

Regardless, the team cannot possibly play worse than it did last season when it finished with 16 regular season losses. The Lions made strides to improve during the offseason, and if the offensive line is improved as it should be, the offense won’t struggle as much as most 0-16 teams do. Stafford has the added benefit of a young running back with loads of potential, Kevin Smith, and one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Calvin Johnson. Expect Stafford to start at some point this season, perhaps by week one if preseason goes well, and he has the weapons around him to finish with decent numbers.

New York Jets – Rookie: Mark Sanchez – Veteran: Kellen Clemens

Mark Sanchez gained considerable ground on Matt Stafford in the weeks leading up to draft, thanks to outstanding workouts that showcased his pinpoint throwing accuracy. When the Jets traded up to draft Sanchez, fans went wild.

The Jets have a history of drafting disappointments, so here’s to hoping Sanchez won’t be the next notch on that belt. According to reports, he hasn’t practiced better than Clemens this offseason. It’s early, of course, but don’t expect Sanchez to be the week one starter. If Clemens struggles during the regular season, Sanchez might be able to leapfrog him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Rookie: Josh Freeman – Veteran: Luke McCown/Byron Leftwich

Josh Freeman is the least likely week one starter of the three rookie quarterbacks in this article and the rawest talent of the bunch. Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik has said “the ultimate goal” is to let him “sit back and learn.” It’s probably the wisest decision, especially considering the combined experience of Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich, and there presence makes it very unlikely Freeman will start at any point during the first part of the season. However, if the season is lost during the second half, he could see a lot of snaps.

Fantasy Value: NFC North Quarterbacks

Monday, May 25th, 2009

We continue our series which looks at the fantasy value of each NFL division’s quarterbacks with a gander at the NFC North. The addition of Jay Cutler to Chicago gives the division’s field generals a bit more salience, but the situations in Detroit and Minnesota are anything but enticing for fantasy owners.

Chicago Bears: Those with experience playing fantasy football are used to ignoring Bears’ quarterbacks the way contestants on “The Biggest Loser” ignored salad. Now that Jay Cutler is in the fold with the team that should change. Cutler’s numbers grew last season, only his second as a full-time starter in the league, as he threw for over 4,500 yards and 25 scores. However, it should also be noted that he tossed 18 interceptions, the second-highest total in the NFL. That number needs to go down for him to delve into the elite category of fantasy signal-callers, but it’s something that should improve with time. It’s unlikely Cutler will reach the yardage total in Chicago that he attained last season in Denver, because the Bears do not run a pass-centric offense, and they lack the receiving firepower to do so.  But Cutler remains in the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks, and can confidently be labeled a QB1.

Detroit Lions: Move on, nothing to see here. Okay, we would be remiss not to at least touch on this situation, but fantasy owners should want to stay as far away from it as they would an erupting volcano, because using a Lions quarterback on their roster would be equally as dangerous. Daunte Culpepper will likely be the starting quarterback for the team, and his days of fantasy prestige are extinct. He’s simply keeping the seat warm for No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford, and despite the relative success of Matt Ryan last season in Atlanta, Detroit is a far different situation, and Stafford will not garner the same type of statistical achievement.

Green Bay Packers: Due to the lack of success by the Packers in 2008, Aaron Rodgers’ outstanding season went a bit under the radar. He was in the top four in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, with 4,038 and 28, respectively, but he also added more than 200 rushing yards and four rushing scores. His breakout campaign has put him near the top of the list of fantasy quarterbacks for the 2009 season. He maintains a top-flight stable of wideouts, and it’s one that could get better this year as guys like Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson refine their games. With his unique abilities, Rodgers is a valuable fantasy commodity and obviously a QB1.

Minnesota Vikings: While the Vikings’ situation at quarterback is not as dire as Detroit’s, it’s not Xanadu either. They seem to have written Tarvaris Jackson off despite his fairly good play at the end of last season - in the team’s last four games he threw for 740 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception while completing 64 percent of his passes - which led them to trade for career backup and 31-year-old Sage Rosenfels, who threw for six scores and 10 interceptions in 2008. He did have  a decent 2007 while filling in for Matt Schaub in Houston when Schaub went down with an injury. That year, Rosenfels tossed 15 touchdowns and 12 picks, and completed over 64 percent of his throws. Unless The Quarterback Who Is Retired Whose Name Shall Not Be Typed comes out of retirement - again - the job is likely Rosenfels’ to lose. While he’s not unworthy of being drafted by fantasy owners, he has limitations. The team lacks a consistent set of receivers, and clearly runs the offense through Adrian Peterson. Couple that with Rosenfels’ inglorious past, and the best you should hope for is a decent QB2.

NFL Draft - Fantasy Implications and More

Monday, April 27th, 2009

With the NFL Draft now complete, analysts across the country will now put on their teacher’s hats and hand out grades to each team. We’re going to go a different way and take a look at some of the fantasy implications of the draft, along with some other thoughts. So, in the immortal words of the Joker, here … we … go:

 - Chris “Beanie” Wells: Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals with the second-to-last pick in the first round, Wells immediately becomes a RB2 for fantasy owners. Edgerrin James seems destined to get cut, and Tim Hightower did little to establish himself as anything more than a decent backup, despite his touchdown vulturing.

- Michael Crabtree: There really isn’t any reason that Crabtree shouldn’t be starting opposite Isaac Bruce in Week 1 for San Francisco. His diva attitude apparently turned a number of teams off prior to the draft, leading to him slipping to the  10th overall pick, but it worked out well for the 49ers and fantasy owners alike. Call him a legit WR3 to start the year, with the potential to do even more.

- Knowshon Moreno: We’re not entirely sure where Moreno fits with the Broncos in terms of playing time, not because of lack of talent, but because Denver has 11 running backs on it’s roster. That number will certainly come down before the season starts, but Moreno will still be sharing time with a number of veterans, and even if he does get his share of the carries,  it’s difficult to envision him as anything more than later-round depth for fantasy owners.

- Donald Brown: This was an interesting selection by the Colts, who certainly had other needs than a backup to Joseph Addai. Still, Addai was a killer for fantasy owners last season, as he had just four games that he averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry (not counting his one carry, four-yard performance in Week 17), and one contest where he gained 100 yards. All this for a guy who was undoubtedly a first-round selection in fantasy drafts. Due to that performance, Brown becomes an essential handcuff, but likely one you’ll have to select a bit earlier than you may truly want to.

- James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga: This is for the IDP owners out there. As the first two middle linebackers taken, Laurinaitis by the St. Louis Rams and Maualuga by the Cincinnati Bengals, each should become immediate starters. We think Laurinaitis could have the better overall value because he has the ability to play all three downs, whereas Maualuga is likely only a two-down ‘backer. But both will have value to IDP owners.

DRAFTS WE DIDN’T LIKE

Oakland Raiders - We’re as confused  as everyone else as to what the hell the Raiders are doing. The knock isn’t on the players they chose. It’s possible Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell become perennial All-Pros and Hall of Fame players. We guess. The issue is that they could have had each of these players later down the line. Especially Mitchell. If they felt that strongly about him, all accounts are they still could have gotten him in the fourth round - and though it would have still been called a reach, it would have been far less egregious.

Detroit Lions - I’ve been on record saying that I have little faith in Matthew Stafford, and greatly prefer Mark Sanchez. In time, we’ll see who develops into the better signal-caller. I dont’ quite understand the selection of tight end Brandon Pettigrew when the team  had such bigger needs elsewhere. They would have been wise to try and trade back and take one of the aforementioned middle linebackers in Laurinaitis or Maualuga.

DRAFTS WE LIKED

- Philadelphia Eagles: Getting Jeremy Maclin to line up alongside DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis gives the Eagles arguably the fastest trio of wideouts in the NFL. Taking running back LeSean McCoy - an underrated back in our estimation - to backup and eventually fill the shoes of Brian Westbrook was a great move, as were the fifth-round selections of tight end Cornelius Ingram and defensive back Victor “Macho” Harris.

- Chicago Bears:  Jarron Gilbert will only help fortify the Bears’ defensive line, as he is a great athlete for a defensive tackle who can get to the quarterback. Receiver Juaquin Iglesias brings a much-needed refined route runner to Chicago, and he was a player who very easily could have gone in the early portions of the second round. However, one of the steals of the draft came in the team’s selection of cornerback D.J. Moore from Vanderbilt. Only his relative lack of speed and height, at five-foot-nine, hurt him. He played offense, defense, and special teams at Vandy, and all he did was produce, with 13 interceptions in three seasons.