$ Week 6 Fantasy Football Preview: Detroit at Green Bay
Thursday, October 15th, 2009Overview
The 1-4 Lions are far from a consistent club this season, but their offense has surprised a lot of folks by scoring 19 or more points in four games and 24+ twice. That’s not to say it’s been good, but mediocrity isn’t the worst when a team was 0-16 the season before.
Green Bay has scored at least 20 points in every game this season and ranks eighth in scoring offense. Sadly, such compliments can’t be said of the defense which hasn’t showed up since week one when it intercepted Jay Cutler four times. Since then it has forced three interceptions while allowing 26 points per game. It’s resulted in a 2-2 record with one clear line of distinction between wins and losses: opponents average 16 points in wins and 31 points in losses.
Injuries
Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford (Knee), RB Maurice Morris (hip), and WR Calvin Johnson (thigh) are questionable, and Stafford will be a game-time decision.
Green Bay: LT Chad Clifton (ankle), DE Cullen Jenkins (Ankle), and DT Ryan Pickett (Hip) have all had limited participation in practice; it is unlikely recently signed tackle Mark Tauscher will be ready to play this week
When Detroit has the Ball
Much of this game will depend on the health of Mathew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, the latter of the two being the team’s single most important offensive weapon. Stafford has by-and-large improved on a weekly basis, throwing more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and raising his completion percentage, which peaked two weeks ago (his last start) at 66.7 percent against Chicago.
If Stafford is unable to play, Daunte Culpepper does a good enough job filling in, but he hasn’t played significantly better than the rookie in his limited appearances this season. Last week against Pittsburgh he looked fine, hitting on 62.2 percent of his attempts for 282 yards, one touchdown, and one interceptions, but those numbers look eerily similar to Stafford’s the week before: 66.7 completion percentage, 296 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
The one thing Culpepper might bring to the table is better consistency. Stafford has been improving throughout the season, but a game at Lambeau might have pushed him off course a bit. Culpepper has played at Lambeau a number of times in his career and has enough experience to know what to do with the football.
Unless Calvin Johnson returns, however, whoever is playing quarterback is going to struggle unless Kevin Smith gets things going on the ground. Smith has rushed for a combined 83 yards the past two weeks on 39 carries, averaging just a tad over two yards per hand-off. That stands in stark contrast to his combined totals the two weeks prior (weeks 2 and 3) when he rushed for 184 yards on 40 carries.
His lack of consistency (for example, he scored two of his three rushing touchdowns against the Bears, when he averaged 1.6 yards per carry) has been a struggle throughout the season for Detroit, but fantasy players have mostly reaped benefits. His diversified talents (he has 143 receiving yards and 287 rushing yards) have enabled him to score at least nine fantasy points every week this season, as he averages 86 yards from scrimmage per game and .6 touchdowns (about 12 fantasy points per week).
Green Bay’s defense has forced a lot of turnovers this season, accounting for their +7 net ratio. Unfortunately, they’ve been incredibly inconsistent this season, too. Expect Detroit to face the kind of defense the Packers played against St. Louis; they’ll give up a fair number of yards, but mostly keep the Lions off the board.
When Green Bay has the Ball
The Packers must protect Aaron Rodgers in the pocket or establish a running game, or this offense will never reach the potential is displayed in the preseason. Rodgers is by far the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this season, having tasted grass 20 times in four games. The fact he also remains one of the league’s most prolific passers in spite of that startling number is a testament to his abilities and confidence as a quarterback. Few in the NFL can scramble as well as Rodgers, who has over 100 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown already. If he was as stiff in the pocket as many quarterbacks, he would have been sacked at least another 10-15 times.
His primary target this season has been the sure-handed Donald Driver who struggled week one but has since turned things around. Driver has 18 receptions for 288 yards and two touchdowns this season, and in weeks two and three he had 10 receptions for 194 yards and two scores.
Aside from Driver, however, there isn’t another true standout yet this season. Defenses have focused a lot of attention on Greg Jennings, who has been held to 11 receptions and one touchdown, while last season’s breakout Donald Lee has struggled to this point with just 74 receiving yards. But if Jermichael Finley’s limited time as a receiving tight end is any indication, he’s going to grow in this offense. Against Minnesota he caught 6 passes for 128 yards and one touchdown and was a big reason the Packers were able to hang with the Vikings at all.
The Advantage
Green Bay is at home and has looked good against inferior teams this season. They must protect Aaron Rodgers this week; without doubt he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when he has time to throw the ball. Pass defense hasn’t been a strong suit for the Lions this season, either, so expect a big week for Rodgers and Co.
Fantasy Booms and Busts
Boom! Aaron Rodgers is going to light up the Lions this week if the Packers can offer any kind of protection. Expect Donald Driver to benefit in a big way, and don’t be surprised if the team goes underneath to Jermichael Finley too. He’s a big target with good hands and great athleticism.
Bust! Matthew Stafford and Daunte Culpepper are both prone to throwing interceptions, and Green Bay’s defense has forced seven this season. If they can get pressure to Culpepper, they’ll also rack up a lot of sacks; his body moves like a statue.
