With all games having been played this week, and Week 14 starting on Thursday, it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous week’s NFL action.

- Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: Owens got nine targets last Thursday night in the Bills’ loss to the Jets, but due to the Darrelle Revis Factor (go ahead and steal that name for your band), Owens caught only three passes for 31 yards. He is one of many receivers, both elite and ordinary, who have been otherwise shut down by Revis. But the amount of looks Owens gets tells you that quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is hell-bent on throwing the ball his way no matter what.

- Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons: With Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Michael Jenkins each out last week against the Eagles, the Atlanta offense was focused on two players – White and tight end Tony Gonzalez. And while Gonzalez got a healthy 13 targets, White got even more opportunities, and saw 20 passes thrown his way by Chris Redman. White ended up with nine catches for 104 yards and one score, and with Ryan, Turner and Jenkins all questionable for this week, we may see White get a similar number of looks.

- Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals: The Detroit Lions have the worst pass defense in the NFL, and as such, Carson Palmer made a point of exploiting that match-up last week and threw 14 passes to Ochocinco, resulting in nine catches for 137 yards and one touchdown. No other player wearing a Bengals uniform got more than four, and Ochocinco is now sixth in the AFC, and 11th in the NFL, with 104 targets.

- Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans: While Britt’s nine targets and three receptions last week against the Colts were second on the team to Nate Washington’s 10 targets and four catches, Britt compiled 46 yards and caught a touchdown, while Washington accumulated 44 yards and was shut out of the end zone. And while the catches and yards don’t make any difference, the touchdown does. That’s because Britt has now traversed into the end zone in three consecutive games, while Washington has not scored in that time.

- Wes Welker, New England Patriots: Welker was targeted 13 times by Tom Brady last week as the Patriots lost to the Dolphins, and he caught 10 passes for 167 yards. Welker had more than double the amount of targets as any other New England player, including Randy Moss, who got just five looks from Brady. As an extension of the running game, Welker catches shorter passes, which enables him to catch almost everything thrown his way. With 95 receptions on 22 targets, Welker has caught an excellent 78 percent of the passes thrown to him. Comparatively, Moss has caught only 59 percent of the passes thrown to him, as he goes out on deeper routes.

Other Week 13 target numbers of interest: Andre Johnson, 17; Sidney Rice, 16; Davone Bess, 14; Steve Smith (NYG), 13; Michael Crabtree, Miles Austin, Bobby Wade, 12; Antonio Bryant, Calvin Johnson, 11; Roy Williams, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garcon, Nate Washington, Todd Heap, 10; Santonio Holmes, 9; Josh Morgan, Donnie Avery, 8; Percy Harvin, Devin Thomas, 7; Louis Murphy, 6; Vincent Jackson, 4; Steve Breaston, 2.

It’s Tuesday, and with all games having been played, it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: As our graph shows, Houshmandzadeh has been the recipient of 97 targets this season, including a team-high six in Seattle’s win over the Rams last week. However, he hasn’t done much considering only seven players have gotten more looks than he has. He caught a measly two passes for 14 yards last week, and has only 56 receptions for 632 yards so far in the ’09 campaign. The high number of targets he’s received is just another reason to count him among the biggest disappointments of the fantasy football season.

- Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons: Jenkins received eight targets last week in Atlanta’s win over the Buccaneers, and he came down with seven receptions for 80 yards. While Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White got more looks (12 and 13, respectively), and will continue to do so, Jenkins’ production over his last two games should not be ignored; he had six receptions for 76 yards two weeks ago. His catch totals in each of his past two games have each been season-highs, and his 80 receiving yards are a season-high.

- Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: The wideout with the most targets for the Bills last week wasn’t Owens, it was Lee Evans. Evans received six targets, and Owens had five, yet T.O. had far more success, catching all five of the passes thrown his way for 96 yards and a touchdown, while Evans had only two catches for 40 yards. Beware of getting caught in the trap that is Owens’ big numbers of late – he faces the Jets this weekend, and Darrelle Revis has shut nearly every big-time wide receiver down this season.

- Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis Colts: Garcon received seven targets from Peyton Manning last week in the Colts’ come-from-behind win over the Texans. That included a number of red zone looks, and Garcon responded with five receptions for 63 yards and one touchdown. His seven targets were the second-most on the team behind Dallas Clark, and were one more than Reggie Wayne.

- Chris Chambers, Kansas City Chiefs: Chambers was targeted eight times last week as the Chiefs got blown out by Chambers’ old team, the Chargers. He led the team in targets, and wound up with seven catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. He’s unquestionably the No. 1 wideout for K.C. with Dwayne Bowe out due to suspension, and his targets should reflect that.

- Other Week 10 target numbers of interest: Kenny Britt, 11; Sidney Rice, Mark Clayton, Sam Aiken, 10; Laveranues Coles, 9; Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Chansi Stuckey, 8; Jeremy Maclin, Chaz Schilens, Sammie Stroughter, Brian Hartline, 7; Robert Meachem, 6; Chad Ochocinco, 5; Roy Williams, 4; Devin Hester, 2.

It’s Tuesday, and with all games having been played, it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers: Early in the game between the 49ers and the Bears, it looked like Crabtree was going to have a monster contest, as San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith seemed intent on pumping the ball into Crabtree as often as possible. But that plan soon dissipated and Crabtree received just seven targets fr the game. Still, it’s an indicator of what the 49ers think of their young first-round pick, and how big a part of the game plan he’ll be moving forward.

- Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans: With Justin Gage hurt, it’s tempting to want to look towards Washington as a viable fantasy option, especially since he caught a touchdown pass last week. But he was only targeted twice by Vince Young, though Washington caught both. In fact, of the 25 passes Young threw in the Titans’ win over the Bills, just nine throws were meant for wide receivers.

- Brandon Gibson, St. Louis Rams: Gibson saw his first extended NFL action in the Rams’ loss to the Saints, and he was targeted nine times, which was tops among St. Louis wideouts. He wound up with seven catches for 93 yards, and now that Keenan Burton is out for the year, Gibson likely becomes a starter.

- Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets: Cotchery was targeted 11 times, which is notable because it was more than double the amount of looks Mark Sanchez gave to Braylon Edwards, who received just five targets. And Cotchery was productive as usual, catching six passes, including one for a touchdown.

- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: Houshmandzadeh had wanted the ball more often, and he certainly got his opportunities last week. He was targeted 17 times by Matt Hasselbeck, and was productive with nine receptions for 165 yards. You just have to wonder how much that hurt Nate Burleson, who killed fantasy owners by failing to catch a single pass on just five targets.

Other Week 10 target numbers of interest: DeSean Jackson, 16; Devin Hester, Santonio Holmes, 14; Dwayne Bowe, Brent Celek, 11; Anquan Boldin, 10; Pierre Garcon, 9; Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammad, 8; Terrell Owens, Davone Bess, Roy Williams, 7; Dallas Clark, 5; Mohamed Massaquoi, Vincent Jackson, 3; Marques Colston, 2.

It’s Monday, so it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals: Coles was targeted nine times in Cincinnati’s win over the Ravens this weekend. He came up with six receptions for 72 yards in what was his most productive day in a Bengals uniform. His nine targets tied Chad Ochocinco for the team high, and were four more than Andre Caldwell received. It was the most targets Coles had received in any one contest this season, and tied his total from the last three games combined.

- Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts: Clark had a whopping 16 targets en route to 14 receptions for 119 yards as Indianapolis eked by the Houston Texans on Sunday. Peyton Manning put the ball in the air 50 times during the contest, and nearly one out of every three of those throws was intended for Clark. The former Iowa tight end vaulted to fourth in the AFC and seventh in the NFL in total targets.

- James Jones, Green Bay Packers: With six targets in Green Bay’s debilitating loss to Tampa Bay, Jones now has 11 total targets in his last two contests, which is easily his highest two-game total of the season. Jones collected season highs with four catches and 103 yards in the game, along with a touchdown. With Jordy Nelson out of the lineup, Jones has taken advantage, and now has a touchdown reception in three of his last four games.

- Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins: Bess’s 14 targets were double the amount any other Dolphins player received in the team’s loss to the Patriots on Sunday. Still, he managed just six catches for 56 yards, and his lack of big-play ability is evident in the fact that he didn’t even have the most receiving yards on the team – Greg Camarillo did, with 71, despite getting the ball thrown his way just seven times.

- Lance Long, Kansas City Chiefs: If you haven’t heard of Long, don’t be alarmed; Sunday’s game was just the third time he suited up all season, and just the second time for the Chiefs. He was with Arizona in Week 1 before getting cut. But people will start to hear more about him now, considering the fact that he was targeted a team-high 11 times by Matt Cassel in K.C.’s loss to the Jags. Long wound up with eight catches for 74 yards in the game.

Other Week 9 target numbers of interest: Derrick Mason, 13; Earl Bennett, Casey Fitzsimmons, 11; Torry Holt, Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin, 9; Michael Crabtree, 8; Maurice Stovall, Dwayne Jarrett, Malcolm Floyd, 7; Kevin Walter, Robert Meacham, 6; Chris Chambers, 4.

It’s Monday, so it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- Nate Burleson, Seattle Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck looked Burleson’s way 12 times in the Seahawks’ loss to the Cowboys on Sunday; he caught six of those throws for 89 yards. Burleson’s 12 targets were double the amount T.J. Houshmandzadeh received, and it vaulted Burleson past Housh in targets for the season. Burleson is now sixth in the NFL and third in the NFC with 66 targets.

- Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers: A week after getting targeted a total of six times, which was the most (tied with Isaac Bruce) among San Francisco wideouts but was fewer than tight end Vernon Davis, Crabtree received nine targets to lead the entire team in the 49ers’ loss to the Colts. He thusly went on to lead the team with six catches and 89 receiving yards. Clearly, it’s only a matter of time before he forays into the end zone.

- Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: Owens was targeted eight times by Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday, and the formerly potent wideout wound up with five catches, but for just 39 yards. Those eight targets were four more than any other Bills receiver got, and six more than Lee Evans. As for Owens, yes, he scored a touchdown, but that was on a running play; he’s still scored just one time on a reception all season, and that was back in Week 2.

- Dustin Keller, New York Jets: Mark Sanchez looked in Keller’s direction 13 times in the Jets’ loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. Of those looks, Keller came up with a team-high eight catches for 76 yards with a touchdown. Keller had five more targets than both Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery, and the tight end is now tied for 18th in the AFC with 49 targets, which is just one fewer than Edwards has, though some of Edwards’ looks came with the Browns.

- Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans: With Vince Young behind center, Gage received a team-leading five targets as Tennessee won their first game of the season over the Jaguars. Gage wound up with three catches for a team-high 41 yards. He was basically a forgotten man with Kerry Collins at the helm, so we’ll see if his fantasy value gets restored now that Young is at the helm.

Other Week 8 target numbers of interest: Reggie Wayne, 20; Steve Smith (NYG), Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, 12; Kevin Boss, 9; Eddie Royal, Bryant Johnson, Austin Collie, 8; Percy Harvin, Zach Miller, 7; Mike Thomas, Keenan Burton, 6; Sidney Rice, 5; Ted Ginn Jr., 1.

1. The 49ers’ offensive line cannot create any running lanes.  Frank Gore only ran for 32 yards on 13 carries vs. Houston and he was often stuffed at the line of scrimmage-a sure indication of a poor run-blocking unit.  Some people may ask the question, “How did Gore run for 200 yards vs. Seattle?”  Well that was entirely Gore’s efforts (and Seattle’s lack of effort) as his two big runs were due to poor angles by the Seattle free safety.  What should have been eight yard runs turned into 80 yards runs because the safety was undisciplined.  If you take away those two plays, Frank Gore only has one rush of over 10 yards this season in 50 attempts.  With the insertion of Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree into the starting lineup the 49ers may turn to a more pass-friendly offense which will hurt Gore’s stock even more.
2. You can blame the Packers’ O-line for Greg Jennings lack of production.  Since Aaron Rodgers is not getting much time in the pocket due to the oncoming rush, the Packers have almost eliminated Rodgers’ 7-step dropbacks.  Those are the plays that Rodgers and Favre hooked up with Jennings with for many of his 21 touchdowns over the last two years.  Since there’s not much time for Rodgers to allow his WRs to run deep routes, the Packers have gone to a true west-coast offense which specializes in short-to-intermediate routes and running after the catch.  That makes Donald Driver the de facto #1 receiver in Green Bay as YAC is pretty much the only statistic that he beat Jennings in over the last two seasons.
3. LaDainian Tomlinson better not say a peep if he’s pulled during a goal line situation again.  A week after LT displayed his frustration on the sideline after being replaced by Darren Sproles during a goal-to-go situation, LT failed to score on all nine of his attempts inside the seven yard line vs. Kansas City.  For the season, Tomlinson has only scored one TD on 14 attempts inside the 10 yard line.  Even in 2008’s “down year” LT had more success as he scored 7 TDs in 25 attempts within the 10 yard line.
4. Sam Aiken, not Julian Edelman, is the Patriots’ #3 wide receiver.  Even though Edelman has more receptions and yards than Aiken, it’s only because he received more opportunities to play when Wes Welker was injured.  Both Welker and Edelman are slot receivers so Edelman naturally advanced to Welker’s slot position when he went down earlier in the year.  Aiken has assumed Joey Galloway’s old position of flanker and even when Edelman returns from his arm injury, he will likely only play when Welker needs a rest or in four-wide sets.  Although Aiken is third in the pecking order among Patriots’ wide receivers, this position has traditionally been very productive as former Patriots Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney combined for 1600 yards and 10 TDs in 2007 and 2008.
5. The Bears are definitely a pass-first team now and it’s not only because they have Jay Cutler at QB.  The offseason addition of LT Orlando Pace and promotion of RT Chris Williams changed the culture of this Bears’ offense.  Williams is a finesse (pass) blocker and Pace no longer has the acceleration to get to the second level to block LBs.  Also, Greg Olsen has replaced Desmond Clark as starting tight end and while no doubt Olsen is the better receiver, Clark is by far the better run-blocker.  The numbers don’t lie: through six games Matt Forte has 35 fewer carries than what he has through the first six games in 2008.  These changes in mentality and personnel may ultimately make this Bears team better than last year’s, but it may also make Matt Forte a fantasy bust relative to the position he was drafted.
6. The Dolphins wide receivers scare absolutely no one and Tony Sparano does not seem to notice it.  After running for 80 yards and 3 TDs on his first nine carries, Ricky Williams touched the ball only one more time in the game-and it was on a reception.  Instead, Sparano had his QB who had started all of 2 career games throwing to the likes of Ted Ginn, Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo, and Brian Hartline-none of whom are over 6’1” or weigh more than 190 lbs.  Ginn looked particularly bad while dropping two passes and has yet to show that he’s anything more than a return specialist, and he doesn’t even do that well.  Hopefully Sparano will notice what got him the 21 point lead and go back to doing more of that.  In the two games Henne has won, the rushing attempts outnumbered the passing attempts 81-48.  In the loss to the Saints Henne threw 36 times compared to 30 rushing attempts (25 by Brown and Williams).  With a rematch with the Jets ahead, expect to see more of Ricky and Ronnie and less of the Ginn Man.
7. Jeff Reed can’t tackle.  ‘Nuff said

It’s Monday, so it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- Owen Daniels, Houston Texans: Daniels was targeted nine times in Houston’s 24-21 win over the 49ers on Sunday, and he caught seven of those throws for 124 yards and one score. Daniels has been targeted 56 times this season, which is ninth in the NFL and more than any other tight end in the league.

- Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings: Rice was mentioned in this space last week when he had seven targets. He deserves special mention this week for getting double that amount, 14, and catching 11 of those passes for 136 yards. Percy Harvin was targeted 10 times but caught just three of those passes, and Bernard Berrian was targeted only three times. Rice has now crept past Berrian in targets for the season, and is 11th in the NFC with 48.

- Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers: Crabtree was targeted six times in San Fran’s loss to the Texans, and he came up with five catches for 56 yards. Vernon Davis led the way for the Niners with 11 targets, but Crabtree’s six were tied with Isaac Bruce for the second-most on the team, and two more than fellow wideout Josh Morgan.

- Devin Hester, Chicago Bears: Hester was targeted nine times on Sunday as Chicago was blown out by the Bengals, 45-10. He wound up with eight catches for 101 yards and one touchdown. Hester has received 18 targets over his last two contests after not getting more than seven looks in any other game this season.

Other Week 6 target numbers of interest: Larry Fitzgerald, 13; Roddy White, 11; Antonio Bryant, Lee Evans, 9; Ted Ginn Jr., Miles Austin, Mohamed Massaquoi, Bobby Wade, Pierre Garcon, Sammie Stroughter, 8; Hakeem Nicks, 7; Bernard Berrian, 3; Braylon Edwards, 2.

The Good

•  WR Percy Harvin lined up everywhere for the Vikings-out wide, in the slot, in the backfield, and as a kick returner, and he was effective in all positions.  Harvin totaled 157 all-purpose yards (58 from scrimmage) and a receiving touchdown.  He was the target o four passes from Favre which was the same number as starting WR Sidney Rice.  For a small receiver, Harvin has wiry strength and has already shown the ability to break arm tackles at this level.  The only place where we didn’t see Harvin was at QB, but you can be assured that the Vikings will utilize him as their Wildcat QB on many occasions this season.

• Honorable Mention: WR Kenny Britt, LB Brian Cushing

The Bad

•  WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: DHB failed to justify his #7 overall selection by producing an ofer Monday night vs. the Chargers.  DHB had four passes thrown his way, two of which were catchable, but he dropped both and struggled getting open all night.  To add insult to ineffectiveness, his teammate and fellow rookie WR, Louis Murphy had nine pass targets and managed to catch four of them for 87 yards (though he dropped the most important one for a TD).  That means Darrius Heyward-Bey, who will receive 23.5 million dollars in guaranteed money was outperformed by the LOWEST PAID PLAYER IN THE NFL.  As a mid-round rookie, the pay scale slots Murphy at the NFL rookie minimum of a $310,000 base salary.  But there’s still plenty of time for DHB to validate his contract, something that his quarterback, JaMarcus Russell has failed to do so far.

• Honorable Mention: WR Hakeem Nicks (injured)

The Ugly

•  QB Matt Stafford: While throwing three interceptions, completing 43.2% of your passes, and having a passer rating of 27.4 certainly qualifies as bad, it’s what happened on the sidelines that puts Stafford in the “ugly” category.  With 5:57 left in the first quarter and the Lions down 14-0, Stafford and company lined up on 3rd and 1 from New Orleans’ 25 yard line.  Kevin Smith took the handoff and rushed around the right side of the O-line but the Saints swarmed him and the play resulted in a four-yard loss.  Thus, it became fourth down and the Lions settled for a field goal.  But when Stafford got to the sideline and looked up to the JumboTron to see the replay of Smith’s 3rd down run, he made a motion with his arm that signaled he thought Smith should have run up the gut instead of bouncing it outside.
  Look Matt, it’s your first game.  You haven’t earned the right to show up your teammates by demonstrating what they should have done.  I’m all for passionate players but not at the risk of showing up guys who are playing their tails off and doing their best to end a 17 game losing streak.  You didn’t see Kevin Smith or Calvin Johnson motioning how Stafford should have thrown the ball after one of his three interceptions (which was the second most in Week 1 in NFL history).  Mr. Stafford, you are not a running back, not a running backs coach, and not an offensive coordinator.  You are a quarterback, and you should work on improving your own decision-making skills before criticizing someone else’s.

• Honorable Mention: Michael Crabtree

With the third week of preseason games getting underway, it’s time to take a look around the league to see what’s going on, and what use it will be for the upcoming fantasy season.

- Reggie Brown (and His Fantasy Value) on the Move? The Philadelphia Eagles have too many receivers than they know what to do with, and the Philadelphia Daily News says that both the Jets and Ravens are interested in Reggie Brown. Brown is a former second-round draft pick who looked like he was going to blossom into an excellent player before getting injured and falling back on the depth chart last season. If he is moved, his fantasy value would rise by leaps and bounds, to the point where he would be worth drafting as a reserve.

- Jermichael Finley Pushing Donald Lee for Playing Time: Last season, Packers rookie and third-round pick, tight end Jermichael Finley, did loads of nothing, as fellow tight end Donald Lee helped fantasy owners to the tune of five touchdowns. Things could be quite different this season for both of them, as Finley has made people take notice with his play, or so says the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. This could be either beneficial or harmful to fantasy owners. If Finley steps up and takes the job outright from Lee, He has value as a big target who could be useful in the end zone. However, the most likely scenario is that the two split time, and neither puts up fantasy-worthy numbers. Keep that in mind when thinking about Lee as a TE2.

- Chiefs and Jags Talking Trade for Tyler Thigpen: NFL.com says that Thigpen (see his fantasy points per game last season on graph), the Kansas City quarterback and hero to many fantasy owners last season, may be on his way to Jacksonville. Apparently the NFL’s J.D. Drew Award winner (for yearly injuries), Brodie Croyle, is going to be the No. 2 quarterback behind Matt Cassel, leaving Thigpen out in the cold.

- Michael Crabtree Offered Fair-Market Deal: According to Santa Rosa Press Democrat reporter Matt Maiocco, the 49ers have offered Crabtree, the 10th overall pick in the draft, somewhere “in the neighborhood of five years, $20 million base, $26.5 million maximum, with $16 million guaranteed.” Which, as Maiocco points out, is solidly in between what No. 9 pick B.J. Raji got and what No. 11 pick Aaron Maybin got. Crabtree’s agent seems to think this is a fair deal as well, but Crabtree does not. Fantasy owners should not count on seeing him any time soon, it sounds like. His fantasy value has taken a major plunge since the beginning of training camp.

- Walter Jones Not Headed for Retirement: The longtime Seattle Seahawks left tackle is expected to be back with the team, reports the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. There was some speculation that Jones may hang ‘em up after undergoing another operation on his balky knee.

This is the final excerpt of the four-part series on scheme changes affecting fantasy performance.  This blog focuses on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers.  Please remember to also view Part 1 ,Part 2, and Part 3.

Tampa Bay [HC: Morris (Buccaneers), OC: Jagodzinski (Boston College)]

After two years in college, new OC Jeff Jagodzinski returns to the NFL and brings with him two separate schemes-one for the running game and one for the passing game.  While at BC, he learned the West Coast offense from former coach Tom O’Brien and when he was O-Line for the Falcons from 2004-2005, he learned the zone-blocking scheme from guru Alex Gibbs.  The Bucs QB best suited to run the WCO is Luke McCown as Byron Leftwich’s windup is too slow for the quick passing game and rookie Josh Freeman will need a lot of time to absorb the playbook.  However, Leftwich has started the first two preseason games and it looks as if he’s seized control of the starting position.  Regardless, his handle on the starting job may not be permanent and that makes him at best a bye-week replacement.  Freeman should get a shot later in the season and could possibly warrant a roster spot on a team in a keeper league.

New addition Derrick Ward should work well with this offensive scheme as he can quickly find the open hole and accelerate through it.  But don’t expect him to put up the 5.6 ypc average he had with the Giants in 2008.  Reasons why are explained in this article, but in short, Ward runs better on turf, in cold weather, and while coming off the bench-none of which he will experience in Tampa.  Another 1000-yard season is likely albeit with far more carries.  Ward will also be a factor in the passing game which will increase his value.  But don’t make the mistake of reaching for him in the second or third round as Earnest Graham will see many carries and will likely be the goal line back, thus stealing some touchdowns away.

The in-flux QB position will have an effect on the Tampa receivers.  Antonio Bryant came back to the NFL last season with a bang but his recent knee surgery will keep him inactive until early September.  At the end of the 2008 season, I saw him as a low-end WR2 but with this injury and the shaky QB play, his value now becomes a serviceable WR3.  As mediocre as Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese were last year, I don’t see whoever the Bucs QB is this year replicating the 3700 yards those two put up last year.  Unless your scoring system gets you points for de-cleatings by a receiver, stay far away from Michael Clayton.  Kellen Winslow is the ultimate wildcard.  The risk/reward is obvious so I’ll let you make your own judgments on if you think he can stay healthy.  But what I can tell you is that if Winslow does stay healthy, he is in the perfect system to maximize his talents.  With a dearth of competent receivers and with a passing game that highly values intermediate routes, Winslow could have one of the greatest TE seasons ever.  But that’s only possible if he can stay healthy.  Personally, I would take a chance on him after drafting the rest of my starters as he should be available in the 6th round.  But each fantasy owner is different so it’s up to you to decide if you want to take that chance.

San Francisco [HC: Singletary (49ers), OC: Raye (Jets)]

Former NY Jets running backs coach Jimmy Raye II becomes the 49ers’ seventh offensive coordinator in seven years-never a good sign for any team.  It’s also not a good sign when the #1 overall pick who’s only 25 years old can’t beat out an undrafted free agent at QB but that’s the case with Shaun Hill being the projected starter over Alex Smith.  Hill played surprisingly well last year when he became the starter once Mike Singletary became head coach.  When projected over 16 games, his numbers would have looked like this: 3637 yds., 23 TD, and 14 INT which would have been good enough for the top 12 among quarterbacks.  But don’t count on that production this season as Jimmy Raye favors a run-oriented, clock-dominated game.  That’s where the fantasy star of the 49ers, Frank Gore, will make his mark.  Raye was part of the reason why Thomas Jones was so successful last year and he will attempt to have Gore return to the dominance he displayed back in 2006.  He should easily eclipse the 1036 yards he put up in 2008 and should reach double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.  But there is a drawback to Raye becoming OC.  He usually prefers a backup running back to be in on obvious passing situations so Gore should see a drop in his receiving numbers.  Nonetheless, he remains a top-10 RB and must-start in all formats.

TE Vernon Davis has all the physical tools to be a fantasy star.  But this game isn’t all physical and he’s only worth drafting if you’re in desperate need for a backup TE.  When Michael Crabtree signs (September?) he will need a couple of weeks to digest the playbook.  He won’t be relevant fantasy-wise until the last half of the season so if you have an open spot on your bench, draft/buy low, stash him there, and reap the benefits in November and December.  Isaac Bruce will turn 37 in November but with him you know what you’re getting-a modest number of receptions and yards and a handful of touchdowns.  He’s worth a late round pick, especially in PPR leagues, and is someone you can plug in if there’s an injury to one of your starters.  The #3 receiver in SF is worth watching too and not just because he will start until Crabtree gets acclimated.  Josh Morgan made some spectacular catches last season in limited playing time and posted an impressive 16.0 average on his 20 receptions.  According to the Associated Press, Morgan has been the star among receivers at training camp and will look to transfer that success into the regular season.  He is a sleeper who could be starting for Crabtree the first half of the season and then replacing Bruce as starter over the last half of the season.

The two other teams that changed head coaches, Indianapolis and the NY Jets, retained their offensive coordinator and will run the same schemes they ran last year.  The one team that changed its offensive coordinator who was not profiled in this blog is the New Orleans Saints.  They replaced Doug Marrone with their quarterbacks coach, Pete Carmichael, Jr.  But it’s common knowledge that HC Sean Payton calls the plays in New Orleans so Carmichael’s position, much like Marrone’s former one, is simply a change in title and his promotion has little, if any, impact on the Saints’ offensive scheme.