In recent seasons it has been relatively easy to pick the league’s MVP, since record-breakers often get the nod, especially when the record is significant (i.e., throwing 50 touchdowns in one season is usually worthy). This season, however, it doesn’t seem quite so clear-cut. I think it’s fair to suggest the league MVP will be a quarterback or running back because that is the trend in the NFL. Offensive skill positions are in for two reasons: one, in the era of fantasy football, few fans care enough about individual players on defense to argue for them a case as the league’s “most valuable player.” You will never see an offensive lineman win the award because that offensive group is, well, a group. As far as wide receivers or tight ends are concerned, it’s difficult to point to one as being the reason for a team’s success since their success depends heavily on the quarterback.

With that “narrowing” concluded, here is my list of candidates (four quarterbacks and two running backs) and my pick, which is probably obvious if you caught the drift of my article’s lame clever title. I encourage you to also take advantage of the comments section to voice your opinion. Who do you think deserves the league’s most prestigious individual award?

Quarterbacks

1. Brett Favre - New York Jets

His individual numbers warrant some attention: 2,461 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. But the most telling stat isn’t on Favre’s NFL.com page. Instead, let me point to the New York Jets’ record without Brett Favre (last season): 4-12. Since acquiring Favre, New York is 8-3 and on top the AFC East. Might I also mention they just beat the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team? The Jets are serious Super Bowl contenders, and I would argue that Brett Favre is the catalyst of the surge.

2. Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers’ numbers might not be gaudy (2,351 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions through ten games), but his play has been more than impressive this season. The Packers remain in the postseason hunt, and it sure isn’t because the running game has led it. Rodgers has showed incredible poise in the pocket and is the single biggest reason Green Bay’s offense is clicking. Now, normally he might not be worth an MVP bid, but consider the pressure he is playing under: he replaced Brett Favre in the offseason, much to the dismay of a good many Packers fans, and has spent the entire season gaining the respect of them and his teammates. I think he’s earned it.

3. Kurt Warner - Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals (7-4) have emerged this season as a contender in the NFC, something that is sure to have made fans believers in Ken Whisenhunt. The team hasn’t been perfect, and Arizona has had trouble running the football this season, which has led to Warner throwing 40-50 passes per game. His response can be described, in a word, as admirable. Warner was impressive in 2007, as well, but he has been in the zone this season. Through eleven games he has thrown for 3,506 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 8 touchdowns and has put the Cardinals’ offense, which ranks 3rd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards per game, on the map.

4. Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints

The Saints (5-5) have struggled this season - mostly because the defense can’t shut down anyone - but the team’s passing game has not. In ten games this season, Drew Brees has passed for 3,251 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 11 touchdowns. The number in that group to watch is his passing yards - he’s averaging 325 yards per game. That puts him on pace for 5,200 yards, enough to easily snag a record. He hasn’t thrown fewer than 30 passes in a game this season, and only twice has he passed for fewer\ than 300 yards.

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings

No running back means as much to his team as Adrian Peterson. While the Vikings have had their ups and downs this season with a pair of ill-suited quarterbacks and a disappointing corps of wide receivers, Adrian Peterson has kept the team afloat through his undying determination. Against the Green Bay Packers I saw a running back take command of an offense in the final minutes to lead a scoring drive. Rarely will we witness a player rush for 40 yards and catch 2 passes for 24 yards to directly account for 64 of an offense’s 69 yards on a scoring drive that puts his team ahead with less than three minutes to play. The dependence on Peterson has been tremendous all season long, and his numbers reflect that: 1,180 yards rushing and 8 rushing touchdowns.

2. Michael Turner - San Diego Chargers

Describing Michael Turner’s numbers in one word is simple: remarkable. Turner has rushed for 1,080 yards and 13 touchdowns through eleven games, taking much of the pressure off rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons are 7-4 right now for a number of reasons, but I don’t think anyone would deny that Turner has played a very significant role.

My Pick: If you haven’t guessed yet, I’m going with Favre. He’s the biggest reason New York has turned it around so dramatically this season, and with him at the helm it’s not hard to envision a Super Bowl run for the Jets.

Maybe I’m right (I like to think so), maybe I’m wrong. Put your pick in the comment, and let’s get some discussion going!

It’s all the rage in fantasy football to find the best sleeper, that breakout player no one sees coming. But it’s just as important to know the names of some players you shouldn’t take a chance on because the risk outweighs the reward.

This is a list of the top eight players I won’t be taking when I’m on the clock later this month unless I can get exceptional value out of them. Take note.

8. Jon Kitna - Kitna imploded during the second half of last season and threw more interceptions than touchdowns for the second season in a row. With the absence of Mike Martz this season I can’t envision Kitna breaking 4,000 passing yards and 20 touchdown passes. He’s a serviceable backup, but I’d rather take someone with a little more upside (Jason Campbell, Aaron Rodgers, etc.).

7. Clinton Portis - Inconsistency is brutal to deal with during the course of a season and few players finish with the numbers of Portis with his inconsistency. His season totals look good - 1,262 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns - but when you take away weeks 9 and 10 (when he carried 36 and 30 times, respectively) his weekly average drops to about 66 rushing yards.

6. JaMarcus Russell - He’s essentially a rookie playing in an offense that hasn’t put together a good looking passing game since 2002, and the offensive line is very suspect. The addition of Darren McFadden will definitely help, but Russell isn’t worth a spot on my roster yet.

5. Wes Welker - Okay, I should specify; I’m not taking Welker as a WR1. I know some publications have him that high, but I just don’t see it. Consider: he averaged 10.5 yards per catch last season, so despite 112 catches he failed to break 1,200 receiving yards. And 8 touchdowns? That’s good, but Brady also threw 50. I’m guessing that when Brady’s total drops this season, Welker’s will follow suit.

4. Michael Turner - Here’s why the Falcons running game failed last season after so many successful season: the offensive line was exposed. Though Michael Vick may have some character issues, he’s a heckuvan athlete and the reason Atlanta had any past success. Now, with no passing game to speak of and a problematic offensive line, Michael Turner has the deck stacked against him with no proof that he can handle a full time role in any offense.

3. Roy Williams - Detroit’s passing game is a question mark with Mike Martz around this season, and I think that will extend to the wide receivers’ production. Plus, Williams scored five touchdowns last year and didn’t finish the season for the second time in three years. And he was maddeningly inconsistent, kicking off the season with three straight weeks with a touchdown, followed up by a five week drought.

2. Willie Parker - Yards are nice. Touchdowns are better. Such is the problem with Willie Parker, who rushed for 1,316 yards but scored just 2 touchdowns. Worse yet, he had just 164 receiving yards. And since the Steelers invested a draft pick in bruiser Rashard Mendenhall, I have little hope that Parker will increase his scoring this season.

1. Edgerrin James - He’s 30 now; no active player has more career carries or touches than him; he hasn’t averaged 4.0 yards per carry since moving to the desert; he’s scored a grand total of 13 touchdowns in the past two seasons; he has 1 receiving touchdown in the past five seasons. Do I need to keep going?

The NFL season is now fast approaching, which means your fantasy football draft is probably right around the corner. To better prepare you for that, I’m releasing my fantasy football pre-draft rankings. Remember, these are to be used as a guide on draft day, so feel free to move players around and stray from the list when draft day actually arrives.

This is part four in a series devoted to running backs. Part one is here. Part two is here. Part three is here.

If you missed it, be sure to check out the series devoted to quarterbacks, too. Part one (1-5). Part two (6-10). Part three (11-15). Part four (16-20).

16. Earnest Graham - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense was not the league’s most impressive, but it did end up giving fantasy owners a pair of surprises. The first was quarterback Jeff Garcia, who led Jon Gruden’s West Coast offense better than anyone could have expected, finishing the season with some solid performances and limiting his mistakes. But the player who everyone will be watching this season is Earnest Graham, the running back who emerged from out of nowhere to make a big fantasy splash. Though he finished with just under 900 yards rushing, his 10 scores and 49 receptions for 324 yards made him a fantastic sleeper. This season he’ll be off fantasy draft boards by the end of the second round. He wasn’t perfect last season - his 4.0 yard per carry average was solid but not overly impressive - but his potential this season looks good. Graham is the team’s unquestionable starter and someone who will get 20-25 touches per game. And if he can find the endzone as much as he did last season, I have no doubt he’ll be a solid RB2 with RB1 potential in the right scenario.

17. Maurice Jones-Drew - Though he’s handled just 333 carries in the past two seasons Jones-Drew has rushed for 1709 yards and 22 touchdowns, making him a nice RB2. The one thing holding him back is the presence of Fred Taylor, but since Jones-Drew scores the majority of the receiving duties and scores a lot more touchdowns, he remains the better pick. If Jacksonville gives him more carries and continues to feed him receptions, he might bloom into a surprise fantasy stud. Until that happens, however, snag him on draft day as a solid RB2.

18. Darren McFadden - Darren McFadden is unlucky in a couple ways. First, he plays for the Oakland Raiders, a team that two years ago fielded one of the worst offenses in league history. And he’s not even the starter, yet. Second, he faces the daunting task of following Adrian Peterson’s banner season. A lot of hype has been thrown his way and there are plenty who will tell you he is more talented than Peterson. Fortunately, McFadden also has a few things going for him. Being in Oakland means he doesn’t have the best cast of teammates, but he’s going to be playing with a young quarterback - JaMarcus Russell - who he should develop some chemistry with, right away. Plus, he’s probably going to earn the starting role a few games into the season, and before that he’ll be playing a minor role in the offense. If he can get his touches, McFadden is a very special athlete with the potential to do some very special things. I wouldn’t predict a season like AD’s, but D-Mac should still make fantasy owner’s proud.

19. Michael Turner - “Burner” Turner is finally being given the opportunity to start in Atlanta, but that comes with one disclaimer: the Falcons are in for a rough season. The team is uncertain at quarterback and just about every other position on offense (except running back, obviously). This of course means that Turner is going to play a very central role in the offense and the team is going to be counting on him. It also means fewer scores than most fantasy owners might like. Still, he’s going to get a lot of touches and opportunities to make something happen. But, in my opinion, until Atlanta’s offense proves itself, it’s best to project (and draft) Turner conservatively.

20. Ronnie Brown - Brown was fantastic last season - until a torn ACL ended his season after seven games. He was averaging 5.1 yards per carry before that and was on pace for the best season of his career. The problem with drafting Brown is this: it’s clear he isn’t able to handle a large load (he hasn’t had more than 241 carries in his career and was on pace for about 270 last season. Brown is a good sleeper pick if he can stay healthy, but therein lies the problem. He’s a serious risk for injury. If he can stay healthy for the season, and he can handle 250-275 carries and 30-40 receptions, I think he’ll be very impressive. But be sure to lock up a third solid running back, as well, or grab Brown’s handcuff, Ricky Williams.

 Michael Turner is heavier and more compact than Steven Jackson.  And while he is not the fastest of these guys, for his size, he is a “burner”.  He scored significantly higher on the Wonderlic intelligence test than any other running back drafted.   While it may be a product of the Charger’s offensive line, his average yards per carry is higher than any of his class.  

The question now is whether he can perform at this level when carrying the ball 25 times a game for the Falcons, which to date he has not been asked to do.  Atlanta has had one of the best running games during the past 4 years; not counting last year.  However, that stat is bumped by having a running QB (Vick).  On the downside, Atlanta’s offensive line is in flux with a new head coach, new offensive line coach, and a change from the zone blocking scheme of Alex Gibbs to a power running game.

Even with the line he will be running behind,  Turner is likely to be the best of the 2004 class in 2008 and many years to come.