The Green Bay Packers are 5-5, but the record doesn’t do justice to the team’s talent. It’s hardly a stretch to suggest the Packers could quite easily have three more wins when considering three losses were within three points.

Unfortunately, talent can carry a team just so far. It doesn’t matter that Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback or that Green Bay has one of the league’s most underrated defenses; when it’s all said and done, the record is what counts. Nothing else.

Of course, there is some very good news for cheeseheads reading this. Green Bay might have a 5-5 record, but that’s enough to keep it atop the NFC North. Minnesota and Chicago have the same record, but both teams are shaky at best. It’s heartening to consider that the Packers are 3-1 in division games, the most recent victory being a rout over the Bears. It is also worth noting that Green Bay’s one division loss was a one-point loss at Minnesota, a game that Green Bay would have won if Adrian Peterson wasn’t so darn impressive and Mason Crosby had nailed the game-winning field goal.

Are the Packers good enough to make a run in the postseason, assuming they get that far? Well, it’s a bit complicated.

Green Bay is not without weaknesses, but some have been a bit exaggerated. For example, many pundits are quick to point out that the offense has had trouble running the ball. While this is true to some degree, it’s a flawed argument. Consider Ryan Grant’s last six starts: in each he rushed for at least 75 yards. And in three of Green Bay’s last four games he found his way to the endzone. His yard per carry average this season is also deceptive; he has kept it at a level of 4.3 or higher in his last three starts.

Watching the Packers, I’ve picked up on two more troubling observations. First, Green Bay’s offense moves the ball down the field but sometimes has trouble scoring touchdowns; it seems that Coach Mike McCarthy has no problem settling for field goals. That wouldn’t be a big issue but it has kept the Packers from pulling away and winning several games. The most obvious of these was the loss against Tennessee. Green Bay’s offense had 390 yards but scored just one touchdown. Green Bay was able to move the ball; in fact, all three of the field-goal scoring drives were of at least 51 yards. Not scoring touchdowns allowed Tennessee to hang with Green Bay in a game that could have been won by the Packers.

Second, Green Bay has an outstanding defense. I don’t know anyone who would deny that. But near the end of close games, fans can witness it changing its gameplan to avoid giving up anything too big. This “prevent defense” cost them victories against both Tennessee and Minnesota. In the former, Green Bay couldn’t stop Kerry Collins from driving the Titans straight down the field at the end of the fourth quarter, nor could the Packers stop the run in overtime. Against Minnesota, Adrian Peterson picked the Packers apart in the fourth quarter. Somehow - I’m not certain how this could happen - the Packers appeared to forget Peterson is the Vikings’ best player.

To return to the original question, can the Packers make a run in the postseason? Absolutely, but it will take the right coaching. The defense is loaded with ball hawks in the secondary and has little trouble forcing turnovers. On offense, as pointed out earlier, the Packers running game has been improving in recent weeks, whilst Aaron Rodgers may be considered the best first year starter in the NFL this season in not one of the league’s best starters. Green Bay’s fate this season is heavily dependent on Mike McCarthy. He has been given a great group of athletes - now it is his responsibility to steer them to a championship.

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On a side note that is completely unrelated to this post, I’d like to thank everyone who has read this blog. I looked at my profile today and noticed that my blogs have drawn one million views.

Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read my thoughts on the NFL and fantasy football.

Sincerely,
Tom Van Wyhe

I must admit, this offseason has been full of drama. But the biggest story of them all is finally resolved. Well, sort of.

The NFL re-instated future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre earlier today, and the Packers are apparently ready to welcome him back with open arms. NFL Network’s Adam Schefter reports that the team will have an open competition at quarterback before the start of the season, meaning fans are forced to wait to learn who the team’s quarterback will be.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy will hold a press conference on Monday at 9:15 ET to discuss the situation, something that ESPN and every newspaper in the country will no doubt scrutinize and analyze to death. But here’s what I want to know: if it really is an open quarterback competition, who will win?

Let’s think about this because it’s not as simple as Favre waltzing into camp to retake the starting duties. Remember, he’s missed an entire offseason; the Packers adjusted the entire offense to better suit Aaron Rodgers, someone who has reportedly looked good this offseason and has handle the hoopla admirably.

So who’s really the favorite?

Ted Thompson doesn’t want Brett Favre to play for the Packers. Heck, he offered him in excess of $20 million to stay retired. It’s not about the money, Brett said. But you’ll get me fired, Thompson apparently complained, pleading with the 38 year old to just call it a career and go home and spend his days fishing while the checks roll in.

“I’m coming back.”

And now he is. Maybe he didn’t use those words exactly, but that was the point he made when he applied for reinstatement. And actions speak a heckuvalot louder than words, especially in this case.

So that left the Packers with no choice. The team couldn’t cut him; he’d go to Minnesota. They couldn’t trade him; he didn’t want to go to move to Florida or New Jersey. That left them with one option: they had to welcome him back.

“Sixteen years after Brett Favre came to the Packers, he is returning for a 17th season,” Murphy said in a statement. “He has had a great career with our organization and although we built this year around the assumption that Brett meant what he said about retiring, Brett is coming back. We will welcome him back and turn this situation to our advantage.”

Brett is coming back, but he’s not being given the starting job, and that makes sense. He should still have to earn it, regardless of how many MVP awards he has in his trophy room. Favre is a great quarterback and, if the competition is fair and McCarthy isn’t stacking it against him, I have to believe that Favre is still the best quarterback on this team. Last season was evidence of that. Plus, his body will probably hold up better than Rodgers over the course of the season. The past two seasons are evidence of that.

Yes, Favre will start this season. The fans will demand it if he doesn’t. In that respect, Mike McCarthy’s hand will be forced.

“We will welcome him back.” Well, sort of.

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Fantasy Note: Until Mike McCarthy reveals that he has the starting spot, refrain from drafting Aaron Rodgers. Favre will be a top ten fantasy quarterback if he starts this season. And Ryan Grant? He’s probably better off with Favre back in a Packers uniform. So are the receiving corps.

Bottom line: every player on the Green Bay offense should see their stocks soar, except Rodgers.