The Lowdown

Both NFC North teams are hunting for a win to move closer to the Bears and to distance themselves from one another. Green Bay lost a tough matchup in overtime against Tennessee last week, while the Vikings have scored 69 points in their last two games.

Love ‘em

Aaron Rodgers - GB - QB - If you don’t love Aaron Rodgers at this point, it’s either because you have no soul or because you faced him in one of his better games this season. In any case, there’s no reason to not love him in this matchup: Minnesota’s pass defense ranks 23rd in the NFL this season and last time he faced the Vikings - his first career NFL start - he had a pretty good game: 186 passing yards and 1 touchdown. Rodgers has looked good or very good in just about every start this season, and the Packers will be looking for a big win in order to distance themselves from Minnesota. Expect good things.

Adrian Peterson - MIN - RB - Adrian Peterson is on a tear, rushing for 100+ yards in each of his last three starts. He has five 100-yard games this season and he’s averaging more than 20 carries per game. Really, did I even have to give any reasons for loving this guy?

Bernard Berrian - MIN - WR - He’s been Gus Frerotte’s favorite target and for good reason: he’s the most talented receiver on the roster. He’s also been a favorite of fantasy football players, as he’s caught a touchdown in each of his last four starts and has finished his last six games with more than 75 receiving yards.

Hate ‘em

Gus Frerotte - MIN - QB - If you’re in a league that deducts interceptions, you might want to stay away from Frerotte. Though he’s passed for quite a few yards this season and he threw three touchdowns last week, Green Bay’s defense has plenty of ball-hawks, not to mention that Frerotte has throw an interception in his last three games (including a 4-interception game against Chicago).

Ryan Grant - GB - RB - Watching the Packers offense last week wasn’t a lot of fun if you started Ryan Grant. In fact, this season hasn’t been a lot of fun with him on the roster. He has rushed for at least 80 yards in his last four starts, but that’s party because of the incredible number of carries he’s had: 84 in his last three starts (that’s 28 per game). He’s scored just one touchdown this season and he’s a non-factor in the passing game, plus Minnesota has one of the best run defenses around.

Donald Driver - GB - WR - Okay, I love watching Donald Driver. He can flash one of those smiles and make you forget that, prior to last week, he hadn’t had an 80-yard game this season and had caught just one touchdown pass. Try not to forget, okay?

Summary

The Minnesota Vikings defeated the Houston Texans, 28-21, to improve to 4-4 on the season and stay close the Packers (4-4) and Chicago Bears (5-3) in the NFC North. Houston, unfortunately, fell to 3-5 and are out of contention in the AFC South, though a Wild Card berth is still possible if Houston can string together a bunch of wins.

When Houston had the Ball

Matt Schaub left the game early for the Texans, which put Sage Rosenfels under center. Rosenfels played well, completing 21-of-29 for 224 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Schaub, during his time, threw a costly interception and fumbled on Tennessee’s second drive, which led to a Minnesota touchdown.

Tight end Owen Daniels had a career game with 11 receptions for 133 yards. It was the first 100-yard game of his career, and it improved his season totals to 43 receptions, 528 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He has finished with at least 60 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games, but has caught at least one touchdown in just one game this season.

Steve Slaton had 24 touches in this game, but zero touchdowns. He rushed for 62 yards on 16 attempts (just under 4 yards per carry) but had an impact on the passing game with 8 receptions for 56 yards, putting his net yardage at 118 yards.

Houston’s first half drives resulted in three punts and two turnovers and the Texans trailed 21-7 at halftime.

When Minnesota had the Ball

Minnesota opened the game with a touchdown on the first drive of the game, but on the team’s second drive Gus Frerotte threw an interception that was returned for a 44 yard Texans touchdown.

Frerotte finished 11-for-18 for 182 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. His yard per attempt average was 10.1, a very impressive number.

The Vikings focused their offense on the running game, no unpredictably. Adrian Peterson was the star, rushing 25 times for 139 yards an a touchdown. He had a big run for 40 yards in the third quarter and on the Vikings first drive of the fourth quarter he added runs of 21 and 22 yard. In all other carries of the game he averaged 2.5 yards per carry.

Chester Taylor contributed with 10 touches for 63 yards, with two 12-yard plays.

Bernard Berrian had just two receptions, but they went for 49 and 55 yards, one of which was a score. Frerotte completed nine other passes for 78 yards.

Where the Teams Now Stand

Minnesota is now 4-4 and tied with Green Bay for second in the NFC North. They play the Packers next week at home.

Houston fell to 3-5 and is fourth in the AFC South. They play Baltimore next week at home.

(After reading this, see my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

There is no question that if given the chance, I would take Ladainian Tomlinson over Adrian Peterson.  Why?  Because LT has history on his side.  But even if he didn’t, he has more opportunity to produce than Peterson does does.

Before getting into the differences, it is enlightening to examine the similarities.  First, both running backs are highly talented.  Both have the ability to not only run the ball, but are excellent pass catchers.  Second, they each have a top-rate offensive line behind which to run (no changes from last year’s starting lines).  Third, both teams have about the same strength of schedule when considering the rush defense of the teams they will face.  In fact, both will face the Colts, Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons.  Fourth, of their first five games, three are away.  Finally, they both have their bye week right in the middle of the season.  If you truly want to compare who is better, this is the season to do it.

Now for the differences all of which support my conclusion that LT should be taken over Peterson. 

- First, LT has a much better quarterback (you can easily compare their performance head-to-head using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool), which prevents the defense from focusing all of its energies on stopping the running game.

- Second, LT’s first five games are against weak rush defenses, allowing on average 137.5 rushing yards and one rushing TD per game.  Peterson’s first five games are against rush defenses allowing on average 103 rushing yards and ½ rushing TD per game.  Momentum is everything.  LT will be off to a great start and Peterson will be seen as struggling.

- This leads to the third difference: with Peterson struggling, the Vikings are more likely to give runs to Chester Taylor, a dependable backup who has scored 13 TDs and run over 2000 yards over the past two seasons.  LT’s backup Michael Turner scored 3 TDs and ran just over 800 yards during the past two seasons and is now in Atlanta. (You can see both running back’s performance over the past 3 years using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool).  I am sorry to say that Darren Sproles is no Michael Turner.  LT said just last week, “In my mind I’m going to have to feel like I have to stay in the game.”San Diego Union-Tribune, July 31, 2008.

- Fourth, this is LT’s second year under Head Coach Norv Turner and it took LT about 4 games last year to get acclimated.  This year everyone is on the same page.

- Finally, it is the final three games that count in fantasy, and while the difference is not as dramatic as the first five games, LT still has the edge with the last three facing rush defenses allowing on average 128 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.  Peterson will face rush defenses allowing on average 113 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.

While I do not believe AP will regress during his second year, it is not uncommon for a rookie running back to have a great first year and then fail miserably during his second (e.g Frank Gore, Cadillac Williams).  Even if I could foretell Peterson would continue to play like a star, looking at each player’s situation and the teams they will be playing against, I would still take LaDainian.

(If you are still not sure, take a look at my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

(After you read this, take a look at my colleague’s argument for LT and decide who you’ll draft number one.)

When it comes to making the first overall pick in fantasy football, one wants to walk away with the best available player. This season the talking heads are torn between LaDainian Tomlinson - aka Mr. Consistency - and Adrian Peterson, the rookie phenom who finished second in the NFL in rushing yards last season.

Now, I love LaDainian Tomlinson. I think he’s a great running back who will finish among the top three overall this season. But I must admit, if I have the number one pick in the draft, I’m taking Adrian Peterson.

Conventional wisdom might suggest I do otherwise. After all, this is only Peterson’s second season whereas Tomlinson has been among the best in the NFL for many seasons. Still, I believe that Peterson’s potential is greater than Tomlinson’s and the risk-reward ratio is too tempting to pass.

Here’s why.

The Minnesota Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, perhaps the best. I don’t think anyone will argue that. That’s one of the key reasons for Peterson’s success last season, and Chester Taylor’s success in the past two. Also, this offensive line will be able to protect quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, someone who is almost certain to be better than he was last year.

That brings me to my second point: a lot of critics are going to say that the Chargers have a much better passing game than the Vikings, and that’s true, but only to a certain extent. Minnesota’s passing game has struggled in the past several years for two reasons: bad quarterbacks and bad receivers.

That changes this year.

Minnesota’s Tarvaris Jackson will be playing in his second complete season, meaning he has more experience than he did last season. He should be more comfortable in the pocket, and the running game, led by Peterson, will force defenses to think run before pass. That should open things up in the passing game. And did I mention that the team acquired the talented Bernard Berrian this offseason? Berrian instantly adds two things this offense has lacked: a deep threat and someone who defensive secondaries will actually need to pay attention to.

And let’s be perfectly honest: San Diego doesn’t have a great passing game, either. Philip Rivers was one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the NFL last season, frustrating fantasy owners with multiple “off” weeks and annoying opposing fans with his taunts along the way.

My third point is this: Peterson was phenomenal last season. He managed to rush for 1,341 yards on just 238 carries, averaging almost a full yard per carry more than Tomlinson. And he injured his knee during the second half of the season, meaning that he could have accomplished much more if he had stayed healthy. Imagine if he does this season. Scary.

Finally, here’s why it’s a risk to draft Tomlinson. The San Diego Chargers running back has carried the ball at least 313 times every season of his career. This season the team will rely on him even more with the absence of Michael Turner. And that’s just the number of carries he’ll handle. Let’s not forget that Tomlinson plays a very key role in the Chargers passing game; he’s also had at least 50 receptions every season of his career. In fact last season was the first time in his career he’s handled fewer than 390 touches in any given season.

This scares me because it means he’s close to breaking down. I realize that Tomlinson is a tough running back, one of the toughest in the NFL. But he’s not invincible. He has over 2,900 career touches; only two other active backs - Edgerrin James (29) and Warrick Dunn (32) - have more. Tomlinson will be asked to handle close to 400 touches this season, too. Will he be able to handle it?

Now, I don’t think you can go wrong with either player this year. But if you’re asking me which player to take first, I’m going to tell you who I think is poised for the best season. And that player is Adrian Peterson.

(Think I’m right? You should take a look at my colleague’s argument for LT and decide for yourself who you’ll draft number one.)

LaDainian Tomlinson - The Pros

Tomlinson has been one of the most consistent fantasy football picks the game has come across in some time. He blends rushing and receiving to the point that he can make a case that he’s the league’s best player. He’s been the Chargers’ leading rusher for the past seven seasons (since he was drafted as a rookie, actually) and he’s finished lower than 2nd (twice he was 1st) on the team in receptions just once in the past seven seasons. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what your league scoring is: Tomlinson has been the best fantasy player in the NFL for a very long time now.

Also consider: he’s led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns each of the past two seasons and he’s finished the season with at least 1,750 yards from scrimmage six consecutive years, now. And did I forget to mention that he’s also thrown six touchdown passes in the past three seasons? His career passer rating is a sparkling 154.4 (league max: 158.3). Oh, and he set a scoring record in 2006 when he found the endzone 31 times.

Yeah, he’s a safe pick.

LaDainian Tomlinson - The Cons

Yes, there are a few cons to consider. First, let’s remember that Tomlinson has been the heart and soul of the Chargers’ offense for arguably seven years, and he’s missed just one start. That means he’s taken his shots and kept playing at a position where he’s taking a hit on almost every play, usually from more than a few players when he’s carrying the ball. And he’s handled at least 313 carries every season of his career (2365 career carries - 3rd among active players), meaning he may be headed for a breakdown.

Yes, it’s cliche to be concerned that a player may be headed for a breakdown every time they handle a lot of carries, but remember, Tomlinson has also caught his fair share of passes. Think about this: he’s had at least 375 touches every season of his career and at least 400 in 5 of his seven pro seasons. Plus, at age 29, Tomlinson (if he’s like most backs) has already peaked and should be seeing a drop in his numbers.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• Consistency, baby. No one’s been more consistent.
• Versatility. Tomlinson does it all - he runs the ball, catches the ball, and, you guessed it, throws the ball. And he does all three better than just about anyone else in football.
• He’s always a league leader. And he’s been the best in the NFL each of the past two seasons.

The Cons

• He may be on track for a breakdown. No one handles the ball as much as Tomlinson does on a yearly basis and stays healthy for an entire career.
• He may have peaked. The prime age for most running backs is around 26-27, so Tomlinson may soon be seeing a significant drop in production.

Adrian Peterson - The Pros

Peterson may have played just one season, but, boy, was it special. 2007’s NFL Rookie of the Year finished second in the league in rushing (behind LT), despite carrying the ball just 238 times. But though his totals might not show him being a league leader, no one averaged more yards per game than did Peterson who ran for about 95.8 per week.

This season the Vikings are better. Tarvaris Jackson has a season’s worth of experience under his belt, and he’s been dealt a new receiver to work with: Bernard Berrian, the best receiver Minnesota has seen since Randy Moss was catching passes from Daunte Culpepper. And as for that offensive line - it’s one of the best in the NFL.

And let’s not forget this detail: he started just nine games last year. Imagine if Peterson had carried 300 times last season, keeping his incredible 5.6 yard per carry average; he’d have led the NFL with nearly 1,700 yards rushing. Now imagine if he had carried the same number of times as league leader Clinton Portis (who handled 325); his yardage would have hit well over 1,800.

Peterson carried the ball 20+ times in only six games last season (much to the dissatisfaction of fans), and in two of those games he broke 200 yards on the ground. Imagine what will happen this season when coach Brad Childress cuts him loose for an entire season.

Defenses should already be afraid.

Adrian Peterson - The Cons

One season. That’s all we’ve seen from Peterson, meaning there’s no guarantee he repeats. And though I mentioned earlier that the Vikings improved their passing game, it bears mentioning that I have little faith in that facet of the offense. This is not a team that will burn defenses through the air; this is a team that will be forced to pound it out on the ground.

And as for Peterson’s numbers last year; on the season, they were brilliant. Game-by-game? Not so much. Peterson may have had six 100-yard performances, but it should be noted that more than 38 percent of his yards for the season came in two weeks. And his yard per carry average dipped below 4.0 in six games, bottoming out when he carried the ball 14 times for 3 yards (0.2 yard per carry average) in week 11. In fact, in his final four games of the season (weeks 11-14) he carried the ball 54 times for 154 yards and just two touchdowns; that’s less than three yards per carry.

Lastly, let’s not forget that Peterson had just 19 receptions last season, scoring just once when he caught a pass. He doesn’t have the versatility one might want from a fantasy back; especially if you’re in a PPR league.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• He was Rookie of the Year for a reason. He posted fantastic numbers, despite just nine starts.
• His supporting cast is improving. The Vikings added Bernard Berrian and Jackson will likely be better this season.
• The Vikings have a phenomenal offensive line. Matt Birk, Steve Hutchinson, and Bryant McKinnie are among the best at their respective positions.
  

The Cons

• He’s played just one season. Translation: we don’t know if he’s a one hit wonder or if he’s poised to be a consistent player. Speaking of which …
• He had some bad games. We’ll forgive him, but his inconsistency - especially near the end of the season - make me wonder if he’s worth the top pick in a fantasy draft.
• He wasn’t a factor in the passing game. He caught just 19 passes during the course of the season, so you may want to knock his value down a bit if you’re in a PPR league.

The Ultimate Verdict: If you’re looking for Mr. Consistency - someone I can promise will have a great season - go with LaDainian Tomlinson. He’s been the league’s best for a long time now, and you can’t go wrong. But if you want to shake things up and take a shot, pick Peterson. He won’t have a bad season and his upside is scary good.

My Pick: I’m a consistency guy, myself, so I’ll take Tomlinson. He’s the sure thing, someone who’s a lock to finish in the top three in fantasy scoring. But I’ll be watching out for the owner in my league who drafts Peterson number two. And if I was picking two and Peterson fell to me? I’d be psyched.

First of all, is Adrian Peterson the real deal?

He sure is. Peterson’s blend of size and speed make him one of the most dynamic runners in the NFL. He has the potential to break 2,000 yards and has set it as a goal for himself. Will he average 5.6 yards per carry again? Maybe, maybe not. But he will carry this team as far as they go, and I’m projecting him to finish with at least 1,500 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns.

What’s to make of the passing game? And, more specifically, what can we expect from Tarvaris Jackson?

He’s a young quarterback with limited potential playing in an offense that will run the ball 60% of the time. In short, he’s not a fantasy starter and he’s a bit of a stretch as a QB2. Luckily, the Vikings added Bernard Berrian to his repertoire, increasing his projections to a degree. The Vikings are going to have an adequate-at-best passing game, but the success of Jackson and Co. depends very much on Adrian Peterson. If AD has a great season, the Vikings passing game will benefit. But if he’s under-utilized, injured, or just plain ineffective, this team will struggle mightily on offense.

Bernard Berrian - what does he bring to the table?

Berrian can stretch the field and is the first Vikings receiver since Randy Moss to have that kind of potential. Of course, most who remember his days with the Bears can recall that he lacked consistency. There were times when he flat out dropped passes he should have caught - and there were times when he made spectacular catches. Still, he’s a massive upgrade at the wide receiver position in Minnesota, and he should be drafted as a solid lower-end WR2 or very good WR3. I’m projecting for at least 70 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 6 touchdowns.

Are the Vikings the favorites in the NFC North?

At this point it’s difficult to say. If Brett Favre returns to Green Bay, one has to think the Packers are the favorites. But if Tarvaris Jackson has a good season for the Vikings, Minnesota could win the division. At this point, I’d give the Packers a slight (very slight) edge over the Vikings because I have more faith in Green Bay’s passing game than Minnesota’s, but this is definitely a case in which it’s too close to accurately call.

Jackson, who has played just 16 games in his two pro seasons, is a very athletic quarterback who can pass the football. Unfortunately, playing in Minnesota has meant one thing: he hasn’t had much talent catching the football.

But when the Vikings dug deep into their pockets to sign Bernard Berrian to a franchise wide receiver’s contract, they provided Jackson with some real talent on the outside. Berrian is someone who managed to make even Chicago quarterbacks look brilliant at times. Of course, he’s a very inconsistent receiver; still, he gives Jackson a primary option.

Tarvaris threw for just under 2000 yards last season and his TD-INT ratio wasn’t anything to write home about (9-12), but it wasn’t any worse than Vince Young’s 9-18 and it’s certainly something Jackson will improve upon in ‘08.

Plus, going back to Peterson, “All Day” is going to force defenses to crowd the box with 8 on most plays. That will relieve a lot of pressure for Jackson and and the passing game should see a boost in production.

And for those who are concerned that Gus Frerotte will steal the starting spot, worry not. This is, after all, Gus Frerotte we’re talking about. The Vikings have little to gain by starting the 37 year old journeyman and everything to gain by giving Jackson the starting spot. Frerotte was brought in to provide competition, not to lead the Vikings to the postseason.

Expect Jackson to start the season and finish with 2500 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, plus another 300 rushing yards and another 2 scores on the ground. He’s a serviceable backup for your fantasy team and he’s in a good situation with the Vikings.

When asked if he thought he could snag the league’s MVP award in 2008, a confident Adrian Peterson replied, “I definitely feel like I can do it. Anything is possible. Especially with how my mindset is. I set my bar high. I expect a lot from myself. I’m surrounded by a great group of guys offensively and defensively on both sides, special teams, so it’s possible for anything to happen.”

And just how high is that bar set, Adrian?

”2,000 yards, that’s my goal,” said the Minnesota running back said.” “I’d be cheating myself if I kind of set it lower.”

Peterson carried for 1341 yards in 2007 (second in NFL), despite taking just 238 carries (fourteenth in NFL). In fact, he carried more than 20 times in just six games. Imagine a season in which he carries 300+ times and still managed that 5.6 ypc average.

Yes, 2008 will be a fun year if you’re the fantasy owner in your league with “Purple Jesus” on your roster. 

First Impressions - The Vikings made waves before the draft, spending most of its draft picks to acquire defensive end Jared Allen. Attach a note, then, that Jared Allen was essentially “drafted” as the number one sure thing for the Vikings.

Of course, the additions of Tyrell Johnson and John David Booty were smart, too. Johnson was the best player on the board, so the Vikings traded up to add quality depth and talent to the secondary. And J.D. Booty is a good pick for a team that still doesn’t have a sure-fire longterm solution quarterback.

My one complaint is that the team waited until the sixth round to draft a wide receiver. Year in and out the Vikings struggle to pass the football because the receiving corps is devoid of talented stars. In their defense, this was not a good class for wide receivers. (At least, not in the opinion of most; we may all be proven wrong in three years.) And the team spent free agency dollars on Bernard Berrian, but he’s proven over time that he doesn’t have sure hands. And that’s still just one target for defenses to watch. Imagine an offense that had both Adrian Peterson and could threaten by passing the football.

Fantasy Impact - N/A

Wide Receiver - The Vikings have not had a consistent passing game since Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss both wore purple jerseys. The biggest reason: the talent at receiver is laughable. Tarvaris Jackson may not be a very good starting quarterback (at least, not yet), but he’ll never develop if the team doesn’t give him someone to throw the ball to.

Safety - Darren Sharper is a solid player but his contract is up in a year and the overall level of depth here is not good enough. The Vikings had serious trouble stopping the pass last season, finishing 32nd in that area, and should add some talent to the defensive backfield.

Defensive End - No one on the team finished with more than five sacks last season and the defense couldn’t consistently apply pressure to offenses. It’s one of the key reasons the team struggled to stop the pass. Adding an athletic end who can bring some heat to the quarterback would instantly improve the defense.

Number to Know - 1 - The number of players on the team with more than 32 catches in 2007.