With three weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, the NFC playoff picture is shaping up to be a heckuva tight race. Eleven teams in the National Football Conference have at least seven wins this season, including all four teams in the East and South divisions, and only three teams have more than eight wins. Put another way, eight teams in the NFC have either seven or eight wins, meaning these final three games carry a great deal of weight.

Let’s take a look at the four divisions individually and project some finishes.

NFC South

Current Standings

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)

2. Carolina Panthers (9-3)

3. Atlanta Falcons (8-5)

4. New Orleans Saints (7-6)

Without a doubt the NFC South is the tightest race in the NFC. Two games separate the first and last teams, and the final three weeks feature some interesting matchups: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta and Carolina at New Orleans. Each of those games could prove critical, especially because no team has an easy route to the postseason, although it isn’t hard to argue Carolina has the most difficult road to travel, with games against Denver, (at) New York (Giants), and (at) New Orleans. Looking at the individual schedules, I think it’s fair to project Tampa Bay will take the division if it can earn a win next week at Atlanta.

NFC East

Current Standings

1. New York Giants (11-2 - Clinched)

2. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1)

4. Washington Redskins (7-6)

Though the New York Giants have already clinched a playoff berth and is working to secure homefield advantage throughout, the rest of the division is still scrapping for a Wild Card spot. The Cowboys were red hot before falling to Pittsburgh week 14, leaving the door open for both Philadelphia and Washington. Of the three teams, however, only Philadelphia has a winning streak (2 games) and the slight advantage over Washington, having a tie instead of a loss. Unfortunately, the Eagles also face difficulty weeks 16 and 17, playing both the Cowboys and Redskins. Winning both of those games would ensure second place in the division, but it may take winning all three to have any shot at a Wild Card berth because of the depth of talent in the South.

NFC North

Current Standings

1. Minnesota Vikings (8-5)
2. Chicago Bears (7-6)
3. Green Bay Packers (5-8)
4. Detroit Lions (0-13)

This race comes down to Chicago vs. Minnesota, and it’s one that should be tight. The NFC North projects sending only the division winner to the postseason. Because both teams have very difficult weeks ahead, the advantage is probably Minnesota’s, especially when considering the Vikings have won three straight and have a temporarytie-breaker, with one more division win than the Bears who play the Packers at home week 16.

NFC West

Current Standings

1. Arizona Cardinals (8-5 - clinched)
2. San Francisco 49ers (5-8)
3. Seattle Seahawks (2-11)
4. St. Louis Rams (2-11)

There isn’t much to say here. The Cardinals have already clinched a berth and the rest of the division is eliminated.

Projections

These are just some projections I’m going to make for the sake of it. Take them with a grain of salt because your guess is as good as mine. Still, here’s what I’m thinking:

Division Winners (and projected seed order)

1. New York

2. Tampa Bay

3. Minnesota

4. Arizona

Wild Card Teams

5. Carolina Panthers

6. Philadelphia Eagles

The Green Bay Packers are 5-5, but the record doesn’t do justice to the team’s talent. It’s hardly a stretch to suggest the Packers could quite easily have three more wins when considering three losses were within three points.

Unfortunately, talent can carry a team just so far. It doesn’t matter that Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback or that Green Bay has one of the league’s most underrated defenses; when it’s all said and done, the record is what counts. Nothing else.

Of course, there is some very good news for cheeseheads reading this. Green Bay might have a 5-5 record, but that’s enough to keep it atop the NFC North. Minnesota and Chicago have the same record, but both teams are shaky at best. It’s heartening to consider that the Packers are 3-1 in division games, the most recent victory being a rout over the Bears. It is also worth noting that Green Bay’s one division loss was a one-point loss at Minnesota, a game that Green Bay would have won if Adrian Peterson wasn’t so darn impressive and Mason Crosby had nailed the game-winning field goal.

Are the Packers good enough to make a run in the postseason, assuming they get that far? Well, it’s a bit complicated.

Green Bay is not without weaknesses, but some have been a bit exaggerated. For example, many pundits are quick to point out that the offense has had trouble running the ball. While this is true to some degree, it’s a flawed argument. Consider Ryan Grant’s last six starts: in each he rushed for at least 75 yards. And in three of Green Bay’s last four games he found his way to the endzone. His yard per carry average this season is also deceptive; he has kept it at a level of 4.3 or higher in his last three starts.

Watching the Packers, I’ve picked up on two more troubling observations. First, Green Bay’s offense moves the ball down the field but sometimes has trouble scoring touchdowns; it seems that Coach Mike McCarthy has no problem settling for field goals. That wouldn’t be a big issue but it has kept the Packers from pulling away and winning several games. The most obvious of these was the loss against Tennessee. Green Bay’s offense had 390 yards but scored just one touchdown. Green Bay was able to move the ball; in fact, all three of the field-goal scoring drives were of at least 51 yards. Not scoring touchdowns allowed Tennessee to hang with Green Bay in a game that could have been won by the Packers.

Second, Green Bay has an outstanding defense. I don’t know anyone who would deny that. But near the end of close games, fans can witness it changing its gameplan to avoid giving up anything too big. This “prevent defense” cost them victories against both Tennessee and Minnesota. In the former, Green Bay couldn’t stop Kerry Collins from driving the Titans straight down the field at the end of the fourth quarter, nor could the Packers stop the run in overtime. Against Minnesota, Adrian Peterson picked the Packers apart in the fourth quarter. Somehow - I’m not certain how this could happen - the Packers appeared to forget Peterson is the Vikings’ best player.

To return to the original question, can the Packers make a run in the postseason? Absolutely, but it will take the right coaching. The defense is loaded with ball hawks in the secondary and has little trouble forcing turnovers. On offense, as pointed out earlier, the Packers running game has been improving in recent weeks, whilst Aaron Rodgers may be considered the best first year starter in the NFL this season in not one of the league’s best starters. Green Bay’s fate this season is heavily dependent on Mike McCarthy. He has been given a great group of athletes - now it is his responsibility to steer them to a championship.

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On a side note that is completely unrelated to this post, I’d like to thank everyone who has read this blog. I looked at my profile today and noticed that my blogs have drawn one million views.

Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read my thoughts on the NFL and fantasy football.

Sincerely,
Tom Van Wyhe

The Lowdown

The Lions are still gunning for that elusive first win of the season, while Jacksonville is trying to end its own losing streak of (currently) two games. The Jaguars have scored 30 points in just one game this season and less than 20 in four. Detroit, in perfectly opposite form, has allowed fewer than 20 once this season and more than 30 in four games. Seems like the perfect storm, right?

Love ‘em

David Garrard - JAC - QB - Last week snapped a four game touchdown streak for Garrard, but given how often he throws the football (at least 30 times per game most weeks this season), it only makes sense that he finds the endzone against the Lions. Plus, he’s a sure bet to pass for 200 yards.

Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC - RB - MJD has scored in 3 of his last 4 games and in 4 of his last 6 this season. And though he doesn’t have a lot of rushing yards going into this game, and thus much evidence to support thinking he will rush for 100 yards, let’s just take a good look at Detroit’s defense and ponder: who can’t run up, over, and around the Lions?

Calvin Johnson - DET - WR - Johnson is one of the league’s best fantasy wide receivers this season, and he’s been as good as gold the past four weeks. In that time he’s put together 18 receptions for 390 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. And there’s a good chance Daunte Culpepper will probably try shaking the rust off this week by lobbing some deep balls Johnson’s way.

Matt Jones - JAC - WR - If you’re not in a PPR league, you can probably continue scrolling down to the next set of names. But if you appreciate lots of catches - Jones has caught 7+ the past three weeks - you might want to take a second look at him.

Hate ‘em

Kevin Smith - DET - RB - Smith might have four rushing touchdowns this season and two in the last three weeks, but there should be some definite concern over his lack of yards. He hasn’t rushed for at least 70 yards yet this season, which means fantasy owners are looking at a single digit week if he can’t find the endzone, and even when he does find the endzone owners are looking at a max of 10 points.

Fred Taylor - JAC - RB - You probably didn’t need me to tell you that Taylor should ride the pine (assuming you for some reason have him on your roster), but just to be safe I’d like to point out that Taylor hasn’t rushed a touchdown this season or carried the ball more than 10 times since week three.

The Lowdown

Both NFC North teams are hunting for a win to move closer to the Bears and to distance themselves from one another. Green Bay lost a tough matchup in overtime against Tennessee last week, while the Vikings have scored 69 points in their last two games.

Love ‘em

Aaron Rodgers - GB - QB - If you don’t love Aaron Rodgers at this point, it’s either because you have no soul or because you faced him in one of his better games this season. In any case, there’s no reason to not love him in this matchup: Minnesota’s pass defense ranks 23rd in the NFL this season and last time he faced the Vikings - his first career NFL start - he had a pretty good game: 186 passing yards and 1 touchdown. Rodgers has looked good or very good in just about every start this season, and the Packers will be looking for a big win in order to distance themselves from Minnesota. Expect good things.

Adrian Peterson - MIN - RB - Adrian Peterson is on a tear, rushing for 100+ yards in each of his last three starts. He has five 100-yard games this season and he’s averaging more than 20 carries per game. Really, did I even have to give any reasons for loving this guy?

Bernard Berrian - MIN - WR - He’s been Gus Frerotte’s favorite target and for good reason: he’s the most talented receiver on the roster. He’s also been a favorite of fantasy football players, as he’s caught a touchdown in each of his last four starts and has finished his last six games with more than 75 receiving yards.

Hate ‘em

Gus Frerotte - MIN - QB - If you’re in a league that deducts interceptions, you might want to stay away from Frerotte. Though he’s passed for quite a few yards this season and he threw three touchdowns last week, Green Bay’s defense has plenty of ball-hawks, not to mention that Frerotte has throw an interception in his last three games (including a 4-interception game against Chicago).

Ryan Grant - GB - RB - Watching the Packers offense last week wasn’t a lot of fun if you started Ryan Grant. In fact, this season hasn’t been a lot of fun with him on the roster. He has rushed for at least 80 yards in his last four starts, but that’s party because of the incredible number of carries he’s had: 84 in his last three starts (that’s 28 per game). He’s scored just one touchdown this season and he’s a non-factor in the passing game, plus Minnesota has one of the best run defenses around.

Donald Driver - GB - WR - Okay, I love watching Donald Driver. He can flash one of those smiles and make you forget that, prior to last week, he hadn’t had an 80-yard game this season and had caught just one touchdown pass. Try not to forget, okay?

Summary

The Detroit Lions squandered a lead against the Bears, who lost Kyle Orton but were led to victory and to a 5-3 record by Rex Grossman. Detroit is now 0-8 and the only yet-to-win team in the NFL, whereas the Bears lead the NFC North by one game.

When Detroit had the Ball

Detroit scored all its points in the second quarter, getting into the endzone three times and kicking a field goal. The Lions led 23-13 at halftime, but, as they often do, Detroit failed to keep a rare lead.

Dan Orlovsky completed 28-of-47 for 292 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. His first interception, on Detroit’s opening drive, resulted in a field goal for Chicago, his second ended an otherwise promising third quarter drive. Though Chicago turned the ball over almost immediately and gave Detroit the ball at the Bears 36 yard line, Detroit ended up losing three yards and punting.

Detroit had almost no success running the football. Kevin Smith carried 14 times for 37 yards, though he did score a touchdown. He also added two receptions for 16 yards. Rudi Johnson, the Lions other running back, contributed with 8 carries for 17 yards.

Calvin Johnson led the Lions receiving corps with 8 receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown, but Shaun McDonald and Michael Gaines also had good, almost identical, days. McDonald had 6 receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown and Gaines finished with 6 receptions for 64 yards.

When Chicago had the Ball

Kyle Orton was injured on Chicago’s final drive of the second half and did not return. He was 8-of-14 for 108 yards with a rushing touchdown before being replaced by Rex Grossman, who looked okay for the most part. Grossman completed 9-of-19 for 58 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Chicago’s defense minimized the negative effects of Grossman’s third quarter interception which gave Detroit the ball at the Bears 36 yard line. Grossman also ran a successful quarterback sneak for a touchdown.

Matt Forte carried 22 times for 126 yards and had a very good day, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

Wide receiver Rashied Davis led the Bears in receiving with 5 receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown.

Where the Teams Now Stand

The Bears improved their record to 5-3 and have a one game lead in the NFC North, ahead of both Green Bay and Minnesota. Chicago plays Tennessee at home next week.

Detroit is 0-8 and the only winless team in the NFL. They play Jacksonville at home next week.

Summary

Green Bay and Tennessee played a heated defensive game in which only two touchdowns were scored. The Packers defense fell apart at the end of the fourth quarter, however, and lost in overtime, 19-16. The Titans remain the only undefeated team in the NFL, now 8-8, and continue to build a lead in the AFC South, whereas the Packers are now tied with Minnesota in the NFC North with a 4-4 record.

When Green Bay had the Ball

Aaron Rodgers threw an interception and fumbled the ball on back-to-back drives in the third quarter. The fumble put Tennessee at Green Bay’s 17 yard line and resulted in a field goal, but the Titans didn’t capitalize on the interception, punting it back to Green Bay. Rodgers was able to move Green Bay across the 50 yard line on a number of drives and within scoring range, but the Packers, as they have in previous games this season, could not get touchdowns when they needed them.

Rodgers completed 22-of-41 for 314 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. It is his third 300-yard game of the season and his 5th consecutive game with at least one touchdown pass. He has five interceptions this season.

Ryan Grant did not struggle running the ball against Tennessee the entire game - he carried for at least 5 yards on 9 carries - but only 3 of his 20 carries resulted in a first down. He finished with 86 rushing yards.

Donald Driver had a lot of success in the second half as the Titans focused more attention on Greg Jennings. Driver finished with a great game: 7 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown. Four of his receptions moved the ball at least 19 yards and one was a 44 yard catch.

When Tennessee had the Ball

Green Bay was very effective at stopping Tennessee for much of the game and keeping the Titans out of the endzone. But Tennessees moved the ball 118 yards on its two final drives, the last of which resulted in an overtime field goal that ended the game. Quarterback Kerry Collins passed for 68 yards on those two drives.

Collins finished 18-of-37 for 180 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. Six of his completions were to running back Chris Johnson, who led the team in that category and yards, with 72 on the day.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White combined for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 32 carries. Johnson handled the majority, with 24 for 89 yards and was very effective at the end of the game. White, meanwhile, contributed with 8 carries for 77 yards, thanks mostly to a 54 yard carry in the second quarter. That drive resulted in Tennessee’s only touchdown of the game, a 3 yard rush by Johnson.

Rob Bironas was 4-for-5 on field goals, missing a game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter (47 yards) and making the game-winner in overtime (41 yards).

Where the Teams Now Stand

Green Bay is 4-4 and tied with Minnesota for second in the NFC North. Chicago leads the division with a 5-3 record. Green Bay plays at Minnesota next week.

Tennessee is 8-0 and on top of the AFC South. They play at Chicago next week.

Summary

The Minnesota Vikings defeated the Houston Texans, 28-21, to improve to 4-4 on the season and stay close the Packers (4-4) and Chicago Bears (5-3) in the NFC North. Houston, unfortunately, fell to 3-5 and are out of contention in the AFC South, though a Wild Card berth is still possible if Houston can string together a bunch of wins.

When Houston had the Ball

Matt Schaub left the game early for the Texans, which put Sage Rosenfels under center. Rosenfels played well, completing 21-of-29 for 224 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Schaub, during his time, threw a costly interception and fumbled on Tennessee’s second drive, which led to a Minnesota touchdown.

Tight end Owen Daniels had a career game with 11 receptions for 133 yards. It was the first 100-yard game of his career, and it improved his season totals to 43 receptions, 528 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He has finished with at least 60 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games, but has caught at least one touchdown in just one game this season.

Steve Slaton had 24 touches in this game, but zero touchdowns. He rushed for 62 yards on 16 attempts (just under 4 yards per carry) but had an impact on the passing game with 8 receptions for 56 yards, putting his net yardage at 118 yards.

Houston’s first half drives resulted in three punts and two turnovers and the Texans trailed 21-7 at halftime.

When Minnesota had the Ball

Minnesota opened the game with a touchdown on the first drive of the game, but on the team’s second drive Gus Frerotte threw an interception that was returned for a 44 yard Texans touchdown.

Frerotte finished 11-for-18 for 182 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. His yard per attempt average was 10.1, a very impressive number.

The Vikings focused their offense on the running game, no unpredictably. Adrian Peterson was the star, rushing 25 times for 139 yards an a touchdown. He had a big run for 40 yards in the third quarter and on the Vikings first drive of the fourth quarter he added runs of 21 and 22 yard. In all other carries of the game he averaged 2.5 yards per carry.

Chester Taylor contributed with 10 touches for 63 yards, with two 12-yard plays.

Bernard Berrian had just two receptions, but they went for 49 and 55 yards, one of which was a score. Frerotte completed nine other passes for 78 yards.

Where the Teams Now Stand

Minnesota is now 4-4 and tied with Green Bay for second in the NFC North. They play the Packers next week at home.

Houston fell to 3-5 and is fourth in the AFC South. They play Baltimore next week at home.