As we attempt to help fantasy football owners traverse to a 2009 fantasy championship, our look at potential breakout players takes us to the NFC West. The division does not have a reputation for quality football, which is understandable considering the struggles of its participants. Yet since 2002 when the NFL expanded to four divisions, the West has twice had representatives in the Super Bowl, which is as many as any other division outside the AFC East, where New England resides. Fantasy owners, however, are more concerned with getting themselves a championship, and hitting on a player having a breakout season could go a long way towards that.

Arizona Cardinals - Early Doucet: A third-round pick of the Cardinals last season, wide receiver Doucet caught just 14 passes and accumulated only 90 receiving yards on the year. Admittedly, Doucet needs some things to break his way to get a real opportunity. But considering that Anquan Boldin has been unable to stay completely healthy very often throughout his career (just twice in six seasons has he played 16 games), Steve Breaston has only one good season under his belt and Jerheme Urban has only proven to be an average player, it’s not unrealistic to think Doucet will get that shot.

San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith: Yep, this is a leap of faith. And one in which it would be easier to take if there was a trampoline to use. But Smith is said to not only have a renewed sense of focus this offseason, but can claim that his shoulder is completely healthy for the first time in a couple seasons. He wasn’t the first overall pick for no reason; he clearly has physical talent. And though it’s doubtful he’ll ever totally live up to his draft status, that doesn’t mean he can’t help fantasy owners. With an offense that is supposedly going to feature the run to set up the pass, the pressure on Smith should lessen. He also has some young, dynamic receivers in rookie Michael Crabtree and second-year pro Josh Morgan to throw to. Granted, he still needs to win the job from Shaun Hill in the preseason, but if there was ever a time for him to do it, the time is now.

St. Louis Rams - Donnie Avery: Avery was successful in 2008, but this year, he could really be something special. The first receiver chosen in last year’s draft, the Houston product caught 53 passes for 674 yards and three touchdowns in his rookie campaign. With Torry Holt having departed and a new coaching staff installing the West Coast offense, Avery has a chance to far outpace those numbers. He is the team’s unquestioned No. 1 receiver and the guy Marc Bulger will look to most often. Avery’s outstanding speed and ability to run after the catch should help him, and his fantasy owners, do big things in 2009.

Seattle Seahawks - John Carlson: Okay, this is a bit of a cop-out. But looking at the Seahawks roster, the options are few and far between. As in, there’s Carlson, and then there’s nobody. So despite the fact he caught 55 passes for 627 yards and five scores, and will take nobody by surprise if he gets ramps it up a notch in 2009, he’ll be our call here. Besides another year of maturity, it should a healthy Matt Hasselbeck will be of great benefit to Carlson. He played much of last season taking passes from Seneca Wallace, who is an adequate backup, but Hasselbeck is Pro Bowl material when he’s healthy and firing on all cylinders. Carlson will be one of the first tight ends taken on draft day for fantasy owners, who have every reason to expect some 70 catches and 700+ yards this year.

One of the ways fantasy owners stave off futility while welcoming the glory of victory is by steering clear of the most frightening word that starts with the letter “B” in the English language: bust. Just looking at the word, in all its unholy incandescence, is enough to send fantasy owners over the edge. So let’s take a look at some players who are undoubtedly going to be popular picks this fantasy season that may wind up as, well, let’s just call it the “B” word.

Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: The easiest to predict, Westbrook has been giving fantasy owners fits for years. He’s never played a full 16-game season, and though he’s played in 15 games in four separate years, he always seems to be on the injury list with some type of malady. Westbrook will turn 30 this season, the age that running backs frequently turn into ghosts of their former selves, and he’s already had surgery before the 2009 campaign even got underway. Add to it that the Eagles selected LeSean McCoy in the second round of the draft, and you are looking at someone in Westbrook who will likely not get the amount of touches he’s seen in the past.

Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals: Out of 11 years in the NFL, Kurt Warner has played in 16 games just three times, and did it last year for the first time since 2001. The fact is he’s taken a beating over his career, and he’ll be 38 when the season begins. His last two seasons in Arizona have been magnificent, but there are other factors, besides the injuries, to consider. He lost his offensive coordinator in Todd Haley, and because the team selected Chris Wells in the first round, they should finally have something resembling a running game, so Warner won’t have to throw it as often as he did last season. He could very well have another productive year and stay completely healthy, but expecting the kind of numbers he put up a year ago is foolhardy.

Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay Packers: As the Packers have accumulated more young receiving talent over the past few years, the 34-year-old Driver’s numbers have waned. His reception total has gone from 92 to 82 to 74 since 2006, and his receiving yards have dropped from 1,295 to 1,048 to 1,012 in the same time period. The reason behind the fall is not necessarily that Driver’s talent is ebbing, but more like the Packers have gone to a new quarterback and have wideouts like Greg Jennings who keep getting better. Another drop in numbers is in the works for Driver, who may see his first sub-1,000 yard season since 2003.

Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Like the aforementioned Driver, Parker’s numbers have fallen in each of the past three seasons as well. He accumulated nearly 1,500 rushing yards in 2006 to nearly 800 last season. His yards per carry average also has atrophied, from 4.4 to 4.1 to 3.8 from 2006-2008. One of the reasons, of course, is health. That 2006 season was the only one in which Parker has played 16 games. He also showed signs of wearing down a bit last season despite playing in just 11 games. The graph to the right shows his rushing yards per week, and only a Week 17 performance against Cleveland saved him from having no 100-yard games in the final six weeks of the year. With Rashard Mendenhall, the team’s first-round pick in 2008, back and healthy, look for him to get plenty of carries, and possibly steal the load from Parker down the stretch.

Throughout the next few weeks, we will be going over the fantasy value for the quarterbacks in each NFL division. Our series starts with the NFC West, a division that is frequently considered an also-ran by many pundits, due to having at least one and often two terrible teams. However, on a more positive note, the league has had two Super Bowl representatives over the last four years, though both the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals came up empty. One common thread with those teams? Both had big years from their quarterbacks.

Arizona Cardinals: There were few quarterbacks better than Kurt Warner in 2008. After not being assured of the starting job coming into training camp, he quickly established himself over Matt Leinart, who is quickly reaching bust status. Warner was second in the NFL in passing yards, with 4,583, and completion percentage with a mark of 67.1. He was also third in the league with 30 touchdown tosses and a sterling 96.9 QB rating. Warner will go into the fantasy season as a QB1 for sure, but not without some concern. For one thing, the Northern Iowa product will be 38 years old, which is about 80 years old in football years. And like many 80 year-olds, Warner needed hip surgery in the offseason. Thankfully, it wasn’t a replacement, but the point remains, health is an issue for him. In his 11-year-career, Warner has played a full 16-game schedule just three times, and one of those was last season. Owners who draft Warner would be wise to snatch up a high-end QB2 to pair with him this season.

St. Louis Rams: Wherever the former Pro Bowl player went in Marc Bulger, Rams fans and fantasy owners itching for another good QB option sure would like to see him return. Over the last two years, the battered 32-year-old has thrown 22 touchdown passes and 28 interceptions. To compound that fact, the normally highly accurate signal-caller has not completed 60 percent of this throws in either of those two seasons. However, the Rams have re-tooled their offensive line with a new center in Jason Brown and a new tackle in No. 2 overall pick Jason Smith in an attempt to keep the oft-sacked Bulger upright. If, and only if, that happens, and Steven Jackson has a monster year, it’s plausible Bulger could be a serviceable QB2 during the year. But he should go undrafted at the start.

 San Francisco 49ers: Speaking of going undrafted, that’s where all San Francisco quarterbacks should be. Fantasy owners will undoubtedly be tempted to pick up Shaun Hill as a QB2, but that may not be the wisest move. Remember, Mike Martz is no longer the offensive coordinator, and head coach Mike Singletary is preaching a run-first offense surrounding Frank Gore. Add to that the fact that the 49ers’ receivers are either nearing the end of their careers (Isaac Bruce) or just starting them (Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan), and you have some possible rough times ahead for quarterbacks in San Francisco.

Seattle Seahawks: There’s something about the NFC West and aging quarterbacks with injury problems, because this is round three of that dilemma. Matt Hasselbeck was one of the ultimate fantasy busts of 2008, as he played in just seven games, completed a miserable 52.2 percent of his throws, and passed for only five scores with 10 interceptions. This, coming off a 2007 in which he threw for nearly 4,000 yards with 28 scores and just 12 picks. Many fantasy owners were burned by Hasselbeck, and for that many fantasy owners have dropped him off of QB1 status and firmly into a QB2. Considering that he is 33, and had back issues last season, which can linger more so than, say, a broken arm, you would be wise to follow suit. Hasselbeck definitely deserves a spot on fantasy rosters, but depending on him is a gamble that isn’t worth taking.

With 64 catches, 796 receiving yards, and three touchdowns, Torry Holt had his worst year statistically in 2008, but the soon-to-be 33-year-old doesn’t think age has a whole lot to do with it. Instead, he places a lot of the blame on his down year on his former football team. Among other things, Holt told the AP the Rams were “not that good offensively,” “dysfunctional,” and that “there was no chemistry.”

Regardless of the reasons for his drop-off last season, one thing seems to be clear for 2009: even if the Jags wind up with Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin in the draft, Holt will be the team’s No. 1 receiving option. He joins a rag-tag bunch of wideouts that includes Dennis Northcutt, Mike Walker, and uber-bust Troy Williamson. So will Holt’s numbers ramp up to the Pro Bowl levels he and his fantasy owners have grown accustomed to?

The answer is probably not. David Garrard will once again be the one under center in Jacksonville, and though he’s solid, he’s not the type of quarterback that makes his receivers better. The same holds true for the Jags’ offense, which centers around the running game, and specifically Maurice Jones-Drew now that Fred Taylor has moved on to New England.

Jacksonville’s history is not one ripe with offensive passing numbers. Since 2002, they have not been higher than 15th in passing yards per game in the NFL, and though they were in the top-10 in passing touchdowns once, in 2007, that seems to have been an aberration, as they have been 20th or worse in that category five times since 2002.

Despite that history, even the least productive passing teams in the league last year provided some quality fantasy receivers. Of the 10 teams that averaged the fewest passing yards per game in 2008, it can be argued that only Oakland and Seattle did not have a player that could be a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3.

And that’s likely where we’d put Holt for this season. It would be surprising if he didn’t improve on last year’s numbers, even if not by a wide margin. It’s reasonable to expect 70-80 catches, 900-1,000 yards and five touchdowns out of the future Hall of Famer, which makes him worth owning in the 2009 season.

With three weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, the NFC playoff picture is shaping up to be a heckuva tight race. Eleven teams in the National Football Conference have at least seven wins this season, including all four teams in the East and South divisions, and only three teams have more than eight wins. Put another way, eight teams in the NFC have either seven or eight wins, meaning these final three games carry a great deal of weight.

Let’s take a look at the four divisions individually and project some finishes.

NFC South

Current Standings

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)

2. Carolina Panthers (9-3)

3. Atlanta Falcons (8-5)

4. New Orleans Saints (7-6)

Without a doubt the NFC South is the tightest race in the NFC. Two games separate the first and last teams, and the final three weeks feature some interesting matchups: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta and Carolina at New Orleans. Each of those games could prove critical, especially because no team has an easy route to the postseason, although it isn’t hard to argue Carolina has the most difficult road to travel, with games against Denver, (at) New York (Giants), and (at) New Orleans. Looking at the individual schedules, I think it’s fair to project Tampa Bay will take the division if it can earn a win next week at Atlanta.

NFC East

Current Standings

1. New York Giants (11-2 - Clinched)

2. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1)

4. Washington Redskins (7-6)

Though the New York Giants have already clinched a playoff berth and is working to secure homefield advantage throughout, the rest of the division is still scrapping for a Wild Card spot. The Cowboys were red hot before falling to Pittsburgh week 14, leaving the door open for both Philadelphia and Washington. Of the three teams, however, only Philadelphia has a winning streak (2 games) and the slight advantage over Washington, having a tie instead of a loss. Unfortunately, the Eagles also face difficulty weeks 16 and 17, playing both the Cowboys and Redskins. Winning both of those games would ensure second place in the division, but it may take winning all three to have any shot at a Wild Card berth because of the depth of talent in the South.

NFC North

Current Standings

1. Minnesota Vikings (8-5)
2. Chicago Bears (7-6)
3. Green Bay Packers (5-8)
4. Detroit Lions (0-13)

This race comes down to Chicago vs. Minnesota, and it’s one that should be tight. The NFC North projects sending only the division winner to the postseason. Because both teams have very difficult weeks ahead, the advantage is probably Minnesota’s, especially when considering the Vikings have won three straight and have a temporarytie-breaker, with one more division win than the Bears who play the Packers at home week 16.

NFC West

Current Standings

1. Arizona Cardinals (8-5 - clinched)
2. San Francisco 49ers (5-8)
3. Seattle Seahawks (2-11)
4. St. Louis Rams (2-11)

There isn’t much to say here. The Cardinals have already clinched a berth and the rest of the division is eliminated.

Projections

These are just some projections I’m going to make for the sake of it. Take them with a grain of salt because your guess is as good as mine. Still, here’s what I’m thinking:

Division Winners (and projected seed order)

1. New York

2. Tampa Bay

3. Minnesota

4. Arizona

Wild Card Teams

5. Carolina Panthers

6. Philadelphia Eagles

The Lowdown

Hasselbeck is out, the Dolphins are hot, and this game could wind up a blowout favoring the Dolphins. Miami is within one game in the AFC East and on a two-game win streak, while the Seahawks have one road win this season (and another victory at home).

Love ‘em

Seneca Wallace - SEA - QB - Wallace has filled in admirably while Hasselbeck has been MIA. The 28-year old quarterback has passed for 391 yards and 3 touchdowns (with no interceptions) in his last two starts and should see at least a little more success against the Dolphins, who rank 26th in pass defense.

Ronnie Brown - MIA - RB - It’s hard to love a back that has scored just once in his last three games, but there’s good reason to be looking forward to this week: the Seahawks can’t stop anything. And it’s consoling to know that the team’s Brown failed to score against - Baltimore and Buffalo - have pretty darn good defenses, a luxary Mike Holmgren’s squad lacks.

Hate ‘em

Julius Jones - SEA - RB - It’s hard to post good numbers in a RBBC system with two other healthy backs, and Jones has disappointed fantasy owners most of the season. He hasn’t carried for more than 61 yards or scored a touchdown since the Seahawks week 4 bye, and the Dolphins are solid against the run.

Greg Camarillo - MIA - WR - Ignoring his 111-yard performance at Denver last week, let’s just look at what he did before that. Nothing? Okay. He has one touchdown reception this season and was averaging 53 yards per game before Denver.

Summary

Philadelphia dominated Seattle on the road, 26-7, to improve to 5-3 in the NFC East, a half game ahead of Dallas. Seattle slipped to 2-6 and is tied for last in the NFC West with St. Louis and San Francisco. The Seahawks struggled on offense while committing no turnovers; Seattle did force one turnover, which led to a 3-and-out. The Seahawks scored once on offense (a 90-yard touchdown pass) but were shut out for the final 58 minutes and 11 seconds of play.

When Philadelphia had the Ball

The Eagles controlled the ball for over 37 minutes with a lot of successful passing. Donovan McNabb was 28-of-43 for 349 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, his fourth of the season. It was his 3rd consecutive 250-yard game and his sixth of the season.

Brian Westbrook rushed 20 times for 61 yards in the game, his longest carry being an 8-yard rush. No other running back on the team handled more than 3 carries or finished with more than 3 yards. Westbrook added 6 receptions for 35 yards.

Tight end Brent Celek and wide receiver Kevin Curtis led the team in receiving and combined for 12 receptions for 214 yards. Celek led with 6 receptions for 131 yards. Reggie Brown and Todd Herremans, a guard, both of whom caught only one pass in the game, scored both receiving touchdowns. Browns’ was a 22 yard catch and Herremans’ was a one yard reception.

When Seattle had the Ball

Seneca Wallace completed 13-of-29 pass attempts for 169 yards and one touchdown. 90 of those yards came on a touchdown pass on the Seahawks first drive; Wallace was 12-of-28 for 79 yards in the final 58 minutes and 11 seconds of play

Maurice Morris led the Seahawks in rushing with 8 carries for 43 yards, while Julius Jones added 10 carries for 41 yards. Neither has rushed for more than 61 yards since week three. Jones added to his total with a four yard carry.

Thanks to a 90-yard reception on the Seahawks first play of the game, Koren Robinson finished with 4 receptions for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. He had 8 receptions for 77 yards entering the game. He was the only player on the team with more than 3 receptions or 30 receiving yards.

Where the Teams Now Stand

Philadelphia is 5-3 and third in the NFC East, two games behind New York. The Eagles’ next game is at home against the Giants next week.

Seattle is 2-6 and tied with two teams for last in the NFC West. The Seahawks’ next game is at Miami next week.