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Posts Tagged ‘NFL Draft’

Looking at Rookie Tight Ends

Monday, June 15th, 2009

The tight end position can be overlooked by fantasy owners from time to time and understandably so. Unlike the wide receiver and running back positions, most leagues just play one tight end, and they don’t put up quite the numbers those positions do either. In fact, of the top-40 players in catches last season, just six were tight ends, and of the top-40 players in receiving yards, just five were tight ends. However, there is one caveat: touchdowns. There were eight tight ends among the top-30 players in that category last season, making them a novel resource for fantasy owners who play in touchdown-heavy leagues. So let’s examine some rookies who may be able to contribute for fantasy owners this season.

Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (First Round): The first tight end selected in the draft, Pettigrew should step right into the Lions’ lineup as a starter. The OklahLions Catchesoma State product is known more for his prowess as a blocker than as a pass catcher, but as you can see in the graph to the right, the Lions need to find someone other than Calvin Johnson to throw to. Pettigrew possesses soft hands and his 6-foot-5 frame makes him a fitting target in the end zone. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect huge overall numbers out of Pettigrew, but they should expect to see him take some trips into the end zone.

Chase Coffman, Cincinnati Bengals (Third Round): No tight end in college football history amassed more receptions (247) than Coffman did during his time at Missouri. Included in those 247 catches were 20 touchdowns, so Coffman clearly has a nose for the end zone. While not a Herculean specimen in terms of measureables, few tight ends in this draft class can match the pliability of Coffman’s hands. Though there are a number of tight ends on Cincinnati’s roster, none have proven to be as adept as a receiver as Coffman can be. He isn’t a proven blocker, so he won’t be an every-down player, but near the goal line, expect Carson Palmer to look his way.

Shawn Nelson, Buffalo Bills (Fourth Round): Like the Bengals, the Bills have a number of tight ends on the roster, but none that can match Nelson’s athletic ability. He has good speed for a tight end, and his hands are equally proficient. Coming out of Southern Miss, Nelson’s handicap is similar to Coffman’s in that he does not have the blocking ability to play every down, but he won’t need to in order to be effective. With Terrell Owens likely getting double-teamed inside the red zone, Nelson should be able to exploit defensive coverages with enough consistency to be on the receiving end of a number of Trent Edwards touchdown throws.

Cornelius Ingram, Philadelphia Eagles (Fifth Round): Only a torn ACL suffered before the 2008 season caused Ingram to drop to the fifth round. The Florida product will have as much opportunity as any rookie at the position because he should be the second tight end behind Brent Celek in Philly. Ingram has the ability to make big plays with his athletic ability, and he is a perfect fit in Andy Reid’s West Coast offense. The Eagles have too many other offensive options for fantasy owners to rely consistently on Ingram to find his way into the end zone, but he’ll still get his share of yards and catches.

Looking at Rookie Wideouts

Friday, June 12th, 2009

As we did in our piece about rookie running backs, we’re going to spend some time looking at some players, in this case wide receivers, who were taken out side of the first round who could have a fantasy impact. Last season, there were no receivers taken in the draft’s opening round, yet players such as Donnie Avery and DeSean Jackson still contributed for fantasy owners. Let’s take a gander at who may do the same this season.Cleveland Browns receptions

Brian Robiskie, Cleveland Browns (Second Round): The first receiver picked after the opening round, Robiskie has a golden opportunity to shine in Cleveland. As you can see in the graph to the right, Braylon Edwards led the Browns in receptions, but after that came Kellen Winslow, who is now with Tampa, and no other player even reached 30. Robiskie, an Ohio State product, is generally considered one of, if not the, most polished rookie receiver, so his learning curve could be small, and his chances to contribute out of the gate are solid.

Ramses Barden, New York Giants (Third Round): While it’s true Barden is raw and has a gaggle of other wideouts to compete with in New York, including first-round pick Hakeem Nicks, his value lies in what he may be able to do in the red zone. At a legit 6-foot-6, Barden towers over other cornerbacks, and is exactly the type of player who makes for a nightmare matchup near the goal-line. A simple fade pass to the corner will be next to impossible for most defensive backs to stop, and even if Barden does not reel in a significant amount of receptions, he should get his share of opportunities to put up six points.

Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts (Fourth Round): The Colts are undergoing a transformation at the receiver position, and Collie, a BYU product, will be a part of that. Though not the biggest or fastest of players, Collie does possess sticky hands, and has produced at a high level while in college. His 106 catches last season were third in the country, his 15 touchdowns were fourth, and the 1,538 receiving yards he amassed led all receivers. He’ll have an opportunity this season to be the third wideout for Peyton Manning, who we all know doesn’t discriminate - if you’re open, he’ll throw you the ball. Which is good news for Collie’s potential fantasy owners.

Jarrett Dillard, Jacksonville Jaguars (Fifth Round): Speaking of production, let me introduce you to Dillard, who manufactured more than his share of catches and yards while at Rice. For three straight years he amassed at least 1,000 receiving yards, and twice he scored at least 20 touchdowns. He had 60 touchdowns in his career, including 20 last season to lead the nation. With the lack of proven talent the Jags currently have deployed out wide, Dillard has a good opportunity to break through and make something happen during his rookie season.

Looking At Rookie Runners

Monday, June 8th, 2009

There were 23 running backs selected in the NFL draft, but most fantasy owners are concentrating on the three who were chosen in the first round - Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown and Chris Wells. Obviously, it’s justified to focus on those players as they will undoubtedly be thrust into action swiftly. But history says that there will be running backs outside of the top picks that will have an impact on fantasy owners. Last year, it was Steve Slaton, who was selected in the third round. In 2007, Selvin Young, who went undrafted, ran for over 700 yards with Denver. Maurice Jones-Drew was a second-round pick in 2006. In 2005, Frank Gore and Marion Barber made impacts as third- and fourth-round selections, respectively. So who will it be this season? Let’s take a look.

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles (Second Round): He’s the most obvious answer, and for good reason. The Eagles selected him in the second round knowing that star Brian Westbrook will soon be 30, and has an injury history - including recent ankle surgery - that reads longer than Homer’s Odyssey. McCoy has a skill set that compares favorably to Westbrook, so the Eagles would likely not have to adjust their offense when the former Pitt star is in the backfield. The fact that he is a good receiver is a bonus for fantasy owners, especially those in PPR leagues.Thomas Jones' rushing yards per game

Shonn Greene, New York Jets (Third Round): Thomas Jones had a fantastic overall season for the Jets last year, but possibly started wearing down near the end. Jones ran for fewer than 80 yards in each of New York’s final four games, failed to average 4.0 yards per carry in any of the team’s final three tilts, and over their final two contests, didn’t have a run for more than eight yards. Enter Greene, the top pick of the third round. He’ll spell Jones, and should see a healthy number of carries, as Leon Washington will likely be used as a third-down back rather than Jones’ immediate backup. Greene is not efficient in the passing game, which hurts his value somewhat, but his physical style makes him a fit for goal-line carries.

Andre Brown, New York Giants (Fourth Round): With Derrick Ward off to Tampa, there is a gap in the trio that consisted of he, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw that was so cleverly named “Earth, Wind and Fire.” Brown doesn’t fit well into any of those categories; he’s the type who can do a little bit of everything. Though Bradshaw is expected to be the No. 2 back behind Jacobs, don’t be surprised if the Giants work Brown in the same way they did with Bradshaw last season in a three-back rotation.

James Davis, Cleveland Browns (Sixth Round): There’s a good reason that no current Cleveland back promotes excitement in the minds of fantasy owners. Jamal Lewis remains somewhat productive, but he’s seen a lot of carries over the years and last season, despite running for just over 1,000 yards, failed to amass a single 100-yard rushing game and averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. Davis very easily could have been a higher selection if not for a senior season at Clemson that was disastrous for everyone involved. Nonetheless, he ended his career as a Tiger with nearly 4,000 rushing yards and 49 total touchdowns. At the very least, he should challenge incumbent Jerome Harrison for the backup job.

Fantasy Impact: Late-Round Picks

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

By now, fantasy owners are all aware that high draft picks like Chris Wells and Michael Crabtree will have an impact on their leagues in the 2009 season. But what about some of the lesser-known players, guys that were drafted in later rounds that could also have an impact? Let’s take a look at some players selected in the fourth round on that fantasy owners should at least keep in mind.

- Shawn Nelson, TE, Buffalo Bills: Drafted with the 21st pick in the fourth round, the Bills got themselves an athletic tight end with the ability to stretch the field. The former Southern Mississippi player could become a valuable target for quarterback Trent Edwards, though he may struggle to see the field early because he needs to improve on his blocking. Of course, there’s also one Terrell Owens to worry about, as he’ll undoubtedly demand the ball, and Buffalo also has an adept second wideout in Lee Evans. That said, Nelson is a talented pass-catcher with no one standing in his way on the Buffalo depth chart, which makes him a sleeper for fantasy owners.

- Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Selected just after Nelson with the 27th pick in the fourth round, Collie finds himself in a great situation with Indianapolis. The former BYU wideout did nothing but produce during his college career, and he has a real opportunity to earn playing time behind Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez. Collie isn’t the speediest player, but he has good hands and will catch everything thrown his way. There’s enough offense to go around in Indy that Collie may see his share receptions on the other end of Peyton Manning’s passes.

- Cornelius Ingram, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles’ fifth-round pick, Ingram is now with a team that has a plethora of other pass-catching options, but not at the tight end position, as they let L.J. Smith go. Brent Celek will likely be the No. 1 tight end, and Matt Schobel is there, but he shouldn’t stand in the more talented Ingram’s way.

- James Davis, RB, Cleveland Browns: A sixth-round pick of the Browns, Davis could not have found himself in a better situation. Though there are a multitude of backs on Cleveland’s roster at the moment, none are so talented that they will push Davis aside. With a strong training camp, it’s possible Davis could start the year as a backup, and after that, who knows what could happen. The Browns will take offense anywhere they can get it, and Davis may be that source as the year progresses.

NFL Draft - Fantasy Implications and More

Monday, April 27th, 2009

With the NFL Draft now complete, analysts across the country will now put on their teacher’s hats and hand out grades to each team. We’re going to go a different way and take a look at some of the fantasy implications of the draft, along with some other thoughts. So, in the immortal words of the Joker, here … we … go:

 - Chris “Beanie” Wells: Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals with the second-to-last pick in the first round, Wells immediately becomes a RB2 for fantasy owners. Edgerrin James seems destined to get cut, and Tim Hightower did little to establish himself as anything more than a decent backup, despite his touchdown vulturing.

- Michael Crabtree: There really isn’t any reason that Crabtree shouldn’t be starting opposite Isaac Bruce in Week 1 for San Francisco. His diva attitude apparently turned a number of teams off prior to the draft, leading to him slipping to the  10th overall pick, but it worked out well for the 49ers and fantasy owners alike. Call him a legit WR3 to start the year, with the potential to do even more.

- Knowshon Moreno: We’re not entirely sure where Moreno fits with the Broncos in terms of playing time, not because of lack of talent, but because Denver has 11 running backs on it’s roster. That number will certainly come down before the season starts, but Moreno will still be sharing time with a number of veterans, and even if he does get his share of the carries,  it’s difficult to envision him as anything more than later-round depth for fantasy owners.

- Donald Brown: This was an interesting selection by the Colts, who certainly had other needs than a backup to Joseph Addai. Still, Addai was a killer for fantasy owners last season, as he had just four games that he averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry (not counting his one carry, four-yard performance in Week 17), and one contest where he gained 100 yards. All this for a guy who was undoubtedly a first-round selection in fantasy drafts. Due to that performance, Brown becomes an essential handcuff, but likely one you’ll have to select a bit earlier than you may truly want to.

- James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga: This is for the IDP owners out there. As the first two middle linebackers taken, Laurinaitis by the St. Louis Rams and Maualuga by the Cincinnati Bengals, each should become immediate starters. We think Laurinaitis could have the better overall value because he has the ability to play all three downs, whereas Maualuga is likely only a two-down ‘backer. But both will have value to IDP owners.

DRAFTS WE DIDN’T LIKE

Oakland Raiders - We’re as confused  as everyone else as to what the hell the Raiders are doing. The knock isn’t on the players they chose. It’s possible Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell become perennial All-Pros and Hall of Fame players. We guess. The issue is that they could have had each of these players later down the line. Especially Mitchell. If they felt that strongly about him, all accounts are they still could have gotten him in the fourth round - and though it would have still been called a reach, it would have been far less egregious.

Detroit Lions - I’ve been on record saying that I have little faith in Matthew Stafford, and greatly prefer Mark Sanchez. In time, we’ll see who develops into the better signal-caller. I dont’ quite understand the selection of tight end Brandon Pettigrew when the team  had such bigger needs elsewhere. They would have been wise to try and trade back and take one of the aforementioned middle linebackers in Laurinaitis or Maualuga.

DRAFTS WE LIKED

- Philadelphia Eagles: Getting Jeremy Maclin to line up alongside DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis gives the Eagles arguably the fastest trio of wideouts in the NFL. Taking running back LeSean McCoy - an underrated back in our estimation - to backup and eventually fill the shoes of Brian Westbrook was a great move, as were the fifth-round selections of tight end Cornelius Ingram and defensive back Victor “Macho” Harris.

- Chicago Bears:  Jarron Gilbert will only help fortify the Bears’ defensive line, as he is a great athlete for a defensive tackle who can get to the quarterback. Receiver Juaquin Iglesias brings a much-needed refined route runner to Chicago, and he was a player who very easily could have gone in the early portions of the second round. However, one of the steals of the draft came in the team’s selection of cornerback D.J. Moore from Vanderbilt. Only his relative lack of speed and height, at five-foot-nine, hurt him. He played offense, defense, and special teams at Vandy, and all he did was produce, with 13 interceptions in three seasons.

NFL Draft Picks 21-32 - Recap and Analysis

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

The last picks of the first round …

21. Cleveland Browns - Alex Mack - C - California - B+

Cleveland fans in Radio City Music Hall seemed to be unhappy with this pick, but I like it. The Browns were very smart to trade as often as they did, acquiring more late round draft picks along the way. Mack is the best center in this draft and the Browns could use a good offensive lineman.

22. Minnesota Vikings - Percy Harvin - WR - Florida - B-

Character issues make this pick a little bit risky, but Minnesota needed a wide receiver and they found a talented one. Harvin could wind up being a bust if he can’t keep his character issues under control, but if he can, he’ll be a great player for the Vikings. Now the team needs a quarterback.

23. Baltimore Ravens (from New England Patriots) - Michael Oher - OT - Ole Miss - A+

I love Michael Oher and am surprised he lasted this long; unbelievable value. The Ravens just bolstered the offensive line, drafting a top three offensive tackle with the 23rd pick. Baltimore needed help at tackle, and this was the perfect pick at 23. I’ll bet you Joe Flacco is wearing a very wide smile somewhere.

24. Atlanta Falcons - Peria Jerry - DT - Ole Miss - A-

The Atlanta Falcons got good value with this pick. Jerry is a very talented player and he’ll be great in the Falcons’ system. The Falcons were prioritizing the interior of the line going into the draft, and Jerry will work well in Atlanta.

25. Miami Dolphins - Vontae Davis - CB - Illinois - A

Excellent value for the Dolphins. He has immense talent and should have been off the board much earlier, in my opinion. Davis was probably the best player on their board; he’s definitely worth a pick at 25 overall.

26. Green Bay Packers (from New England Patriots) - Clay Matthews - OLB - USC - B

I love this pick and give it an “A.” Why then does it say “B” above? Because I don’t like what Green Bay gave up to acquire Matthews - their 2nd round pick and two 3rd round picks. Still, I love Matthews and fills another glaring hole in the defense, leaving only strong safety unfilled in this draft (at least as far as starters are concerned).

27. Indianapolis Colts - Donald Brown - RB - Connecticut - B+

I’m a bit surprised the Colts passed on Wells, but Brown is a fine running back to draft. I think the Colts needed help at running back, and Joseph Addai is looking more and more like an average running back. Brown will be great out of the backfield as a receiver, though he needs to work on certain facets of his game (his blocking and interior running game). Don’t expect a whole lot of action out of Brown in his first season.

28. Buffalo Bills - Eric Wood - C - Louisville - B

I think this pick was a bit of a reach for the Bills - Wood was a second rounder, in my opinion - but that’s not really fair. Wood is an excellent center prospect, and even though he may have been available later, he’ll fit in well with Buffalo. Nice pick by the Bills.

29. New York Giants - Hakeem Nicks - North Carolina - A-

The Giants really needed help at wide receiver going into this draft, and Nicks has immense potential. He’s a playmaker who is going to an ideal situation where he’ll have a very good quarterback throwing him the ball. We’ll see how his fantasy value increases as training camp approaches.

30. Tennessee Titans - Kenny Britt - WR - Rutgers - A-

Tennessee has needed help at wide receiver for a long time; Britt will be a very welcome addition to the offense. While I’m not sure Vince Young will ever (or should) start again in Tennesee, Britt would be great with him. He has great hands and can catch passes that aren’t perfect.

31. Arizona Cardinals - Chris Wells - RB - Ohio State A+

“Beanie” Wells was an excellent value at 31; more than that, he fills a real need in Arizona. Edgerrin James can expect a pink slip at some point this offseason, and Wells will be great alongside Tim Hightower in the Cardinals offense.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers - Evander Hood - DT - Missouri - B+

The Steelers love defense and Hood will be good in the interior of the line. Good pick by the Steelers, nabbing an excellent tackle with the last pick of the first round. Just more evidence the Steelers will always have a great defense.

More analysis coming in the upcoming week. Remember, this is all knee-jerk reaction, so try not to criticize me too much!

NFL Draft Picks 11-20 - Recap and Analysis

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

More picks and analysis …

11. Buffalo Bills - Aaron Maybin - DE - Penn St. - B+

Aaron Maybin is one of the guys Buffalo wanted going into the draft. He’s a great pass rusher who will get to the quarterback a lot in the NFL. My biggest problem is his size - he’s under 250 pounds and until he puts on some more bulk, I don’t think he’s an everydown starter.

12. Denver Broncos - Knowshon Moreno - RB - Georgia - B-

I see this pick as a bit of a reach, especially considering Denver’s defensive needs. But the team does need to get younger and more talented at running back and this is certainly one way to do it. Moreno should have some success with the Broncos year one.

13. Washington Redskins - Brian Orakpo - DE - Texas - B+

This pick fills a need and since Orakpo was probably the top player on Washington’s board, I think it was a very good pick. He can play end in the 4-3 and he has immense quickness. I thought he’d go to a 3-4 team to play OLB, but I still like the pick.

14. New Orleans Saints - Malcolm Jenkins - CB/S - Ohio St. - A+

Jenkins is one of the most versatile players in this draft, and he’ll be a welcome addition to this secondary, especially considering the absence of Mike McKenzie. New Orleans needed to boost its defense and this was an obvious pick. Outstanding selection by the Saints.

15. Houston Texans - Brian Cushing - OLB - USC - B+

Cushing is a very good linebacker with a great work ethic, and he’s a very coachable player who Gary Kubiak is going to like a lot. The only real issue in my mind is where he’ll peak in the NFL. He’s going to work his tail off, but will he have the talent? I think so, and so does Houston. Good pick, Kubes.

16. San Diego Chargers - Larry English - DE/LB - Northern Illinois - A-

Good pick by the Chargers, considering where they stand at linebacker. Shawn Merriman has dealt with injuries and his contract is up soon; part of me thinks they’re questioning his recovery a bit. English can step up and make a difference on defense and his motor doesn’t quit.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Browns) - Josh Freeman - QB - Kansas St. - C+

I realize the Buccaneers didn’t give up much to ensure drafting Freeman, but I’m not sold on him as a quarterback. I don’t think he’s ideal for Tampa Bay’s offense because he lacks excellent passing accuracy. Not a great pick, in my mind.

18. Denver Broncos - Robert Ayers - DE - Tennessee - A

Excellent pick for a new 3-4 defense. The Broncos needed to improve the defensive line and this was the best way to go about it, given the situation and the players left on the board. Ayers will be an instant starter and a great boon to the Broncos defense.

19. Philadelphia Eagles (from Browns) - Jeremy Maclin - WR - Missouri - A

They got Donovan McNabb “a new toy,” to put it in the words of Rich Eisen. Very true, Rich. McNabb (and eventually Kevin Kolb or another successor) needs a good receiver he can count on; better yet, this was a very good value pick. I thought Maclin would have been off the board long ago, but Philadelphia got lucky and wound up getting him at the tail end of the top 20.

20. Detroit Lions - Brandon Pettigrew - TE - Oklahoma St. - A-

I was a bit surprised to see the Lions not use a first round pick on the offensive line or defense, but I like the pick for this reason: Stafford, like all rookies and young quarterbacks, is going to love having a big target. Pettigrew is going to be a great blocking tight end and a solid receiver. I really like this pick, even though it wasn’t the one I thought they’d make.

NFL Draft Top Ten Picks - Recap and Analysis

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

Recapping the first 1/3 of the first round of the draft …

1. Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford - QB - Georgia - B+

Matthew Stafford wasn’t the safest pick the Lions could make, but he might have been the only obvious one in this draft. Stafford will be sacked a lot during his first NFL season; hopefully he’ll be able to handle it and learn from it. Too many quarterbacks have been drafted first overall by teams that couldn’t surround them with a supporting cast; in a lot of those situations, the quarterback went “bust.”

2. St. Louis Rams - Jason Smith - OT - Baylor - A+

Excellent pick by the Rams. The Rams need to bolster the offensive line before they can address the skill positions (though no doubt they will later in the draft), and Jason Smith has the potential to guard the blindside of whoever is playing quarterback for the next decade or more. St. Louis has perhaps the least talented offense in the NFL, but it’s essential the Rams start with the foundation.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - Tyson Jackson - DE - LSU - B

Tyson Jackson is a great pick, but I think the Chiefs may have reached a bit because I think Jackson would have been on the board later in the top ten. Having said that, Jackson will bolster this defensive line. I listed DE as the Chiefs biggest need - it’s filled now. Fans will also like that he’s a plug-and-play type player who will make an impact year one.

4. Seattle Seahawks - Aaron Curry - OLB - Wake Forest - A-

I really like this pick for Seattle. Curry has loads of talent and fills the gap left by Julian Peterson. Seattle’s starting linebackers are now among the most talented in the NFL, and I think that if the Seahawks can afford it, they’ll have one of the best corps in the league for years to come.

5. New York Jets (from Cleveland) - Mark Sanchez - QB - USC - B+

New York needed a quarterback and they got one. Sanchez has a lot of potential in New York’s offense, and it looks like the Jets have a lot of faith in him. I didn’t think anyone had to move up this high to draft Sanchez, but when you want to get a guy you believe is a franchise quarterback, does it matter? Good pick by the Jets. I feel they reached a bit by moving up this high (which is why I gave them a B+), but Jets fans are definitely excited.

6. Cincinnati Bengals - Andre Smith - OT - Alabama - B

This is a classic “boom” or “bust” pick. A lot of experts think he’s immature (evidenced by poor interviews) and his weight fluctuates, but he has a lot of talent. If he applies himself he’ll be a top tackle in the NFL for years. I think the media overplayed a lot of his weaknesses; he has incredible strength and natural athleticism. Good pick for the Bengals here.

7. Oakland Raiders - Darrius Heyward-Bey - WR - Maryland - C+

The Oakland Raiders made an Al Davis pick. They addressed a major need with Heyward-Bey, but he’s probably not the best wide receiver in this draft. I don’t doubt his talent - and I definitely can appreciate his speed - but this was reach in my book. I think the Raiders could have moved down and got him closer to the second half of the draft.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Eugene Monroe - OT - Virginia - B-

Jacksonville got a top three offensive tackle in the draft (and the third off the board). He’ll be protecting the blindside of David Garrard and opening holes for Maurice Jones-Drew, so I think the pick was a good one. That said, I don’t think OT was the team’s most glaring need, and I think the team should have invested in a great DT like B.J. Raji.

9. Green Bay Packers - B.J. Raji - DT/NT - Boston College - A-

Thanks to this pick, the Packers now have a very solid defensive line around which the 3-4 will operate. Raji will get plugged in as the nose tackle in the new scheme, leaving the Packers with just a few pieces of the puzzle left to fit - OLB and FS, specifically. I think Orakpo would have been another worthwhile pick, as he could have played OLB. Still, I like the pick and Thompson has made a lot of good decisions for the Packers in the past.

10. San Francisco 49ers - Michael Crabtree - WR - Texas Tech - A

Some people like to question Crabtree’s speed, but he’s the best wide receiver in this draft. Besides, he has football speed - just watch the tape. San Francisco needs to bolster its passing game and Crabtree affords them some. Now, of course, the team could use a quarterback who can throw the ball.

2009 NFL Draft Team Needs: Washington Redskins

Friday, April 24th, 2009

Washington was in a lot of ways, statistically mediocre last season. Where it ultimately struggled - and why it’s picking 13th overall - is scoring.

Basically, the Redskins finished 28th in scoring offense, which meant it’s 6th rated scoring defense could  only get it so far. Great defenses are a rare commodity, but good offenses are something no playoff team can get around. Alright, maybe once in a while, but the general rule of thumb is that if a team is great on one side of the ball, it must be at least decent on the other.

Washington was not decent.

Clinton Portis was his usual impressive self, rushing for nearly 1,500 yards and averaging a respectable 4.3 yards per carry. When the season was over, Washington had the 8th most rushing attempts, 8th most rushing yards, and the 8th highest yard per carry average.

Not bad, right?

Now look where they stood in terms of rushing touchdowns; you might be surprised.

22nd.

478 carries and just 12 rushing touchdowns to show for it. LenDale White had 200 carries and 15 touchdowns; Brandon Jacobs had 217 carries and 15 touchdowns; both had less than half the number of rush attempts; both had more touchdowns.

Heck, Timmy Hightower carried 143 times - less than a third the number of rush attempts - and he finished with 10 touchdowns. Had he carried as often as Washington and kept his rate up he would have scored more than 33 touchdowns.

Y’know, just to put things in perspective.

But I can’t blame the running game for the Redskins’ woes. No, I think the blame falls squarely on the facet of the offense responsible for throwing the ball down the field. After all, when your quarterback can only throw 13 touchdowns and for 3,245 yards

The biggest trouble came when the team tried throwing the football. Jason Campbell may or may not be the guy to be playing quarterback in Washington (word is Washington is considering trading him to move up and draft Mark Sanchez), but for all intents and purposes he played the role of a “don’t turn the ball over” quarterback last season. It’s good when a starting quarterback attempts over 500 tosses and only 6 are intercepted, but it’s not good when just 13 find the endzone. And when a quarterback only averaged 5.5 yards per attempt you can guess he’s checking down; the West Coast offense relies on short, successful passes, but there’s a limit. Averaging that little per attempt usually leads to one thing: failed third down conversions. Indeed, Washington had a mere 35 percent success rate on third down, 7 percent better of the worst rate in football and 13 percent shy of the best.

Failed conversions = killed drives = low scoring.

Meanwhile, though the defense was very good last season, it faced some losses this season; defensive end Jason Taylor is gone and so is linebacker Marcus Washington. Those gaps in the defense need to be filled, and since the linebacking corps is almost completely devoid of depth at the moment, they’re just an injury away from fielding a mediocre unit.

Primary Team Needs

1. Offensive Line - Washington does have a pretty solid offensive line, but its starters’ age is cause for concern. Jon Jansen is 33, Chris Samuels turns 32 before the start of the season, and Randy Thomas is also 33. Adding a rookie or two would help bolster the offensive line, and if someone like Andre Smith falls this far, expect the ‘Skins to pounce.

2. Defensive End - Opposite Andre Carter there just isn’t enough talent to fill the void left by Jason Taylor. Renaldo Wynn and Chris Wilson won’t be able to provide enough pressure and containment, and neither is an ideal 4-3 defensive end.

3. Outside Linebacker - H.B. Blades is the favorite to start at strong side linebacker this season in the absence of Marcus Washington. The Redskins must do what they can in the draft to (a) find a suitable replacement or (b) at least add some depth. There really isn’t enough talent and, as pointed out earlier, an injury to a starting linebacker will seriously affect this defense.

4. Quarterback - Jason Campbell just doesn’t appear to be a franchise quarterback. Whether it’s lack of confidence in himself or from the coaches, he simply doesn’t throw downfield often enough. His completion percentage is high and his interceptions are low, but that’s a result of never taking chances. Washington could get by another year with him, but don’t be shocked to see them move up on the board to draft Sanchez if he’s still around at seven or eight.

Projected First Round Pick

Michael Oher - OT - Ole Miss

Oher has tremendous upside and he’d give the offensive line a good boost of talent. He’s a powerful run blocker and could develop into an excellent blindside tackle due to him gift of protecting the quarterback. Besides, he’s a great value pick at 13 overall. Also strongly considered here was defensive end Aaron Maybin, but his lack of size (just 249 pounds) means it would be something of a reach; Washington could probably trade down to acquire Maybin.

2009 NFL Draft Team Needs: Denver Broncos

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

Oh, what a tumultuous offseason for the Denver Broncos.

First, the team fired longtime head coach Mike “Shanny” Shanahan, hiring in his place a young offensive prodigy who had spent his career in New England with the offense and quarterbacks, Josh McDaniels. In his first major move as a head coach, McDaniels upset a great many fans and caused every NFL fan to turn their collective heads as he attempted to trade Jay Cutler, then successfully traded the quarterback.

Wow, what an offseason.

Now McDaniels is set out to prove himself as a head coach. He’ll need to be successful within several seasons - no more than three and potentially just two - or he’ll be out the door and his coaching resume will be forever tainted.

The good news is he and the Broncos have a lot of draft picks to turn things around.

In this year’s draft the Broncos have 10 picks, including two in the first round (12 and 18 overall). No doubt McDaniels has his eyes set on a quarterback, but unless the Broncos trade up and acquire Mark Sanchez - who does in fact seem ideal for McDaniels’ purposes - it seems unlikely they’ll draft one in the first round. The good news is the team has some time to make a move for another quarterback, since Kyle Orton, who did his share of winning in Chicago, is the signal caller right now. McDaniels can get by one season without drafting a high caliber quarterback, though I think it would come to no surprise if the team does draft someone in the mid-later rounds.

The Broncos biggest focus this offseason should instead be on defense. Denver couldn’t stop the run last season, and it didn’t fare too well against the pass. The team’s only saving grace was its passing game, and now its success is anyone’s guess. Plus, with a new 3-4 scheme being implemented by the very bright defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, Denver must devote a great deal of its picks toward improving its awful defensive line and questionable secondary.

To start, the Broncos need a quality defensive tackle, a big body who can stuff two gaps without a lot of trouble. That having been said, Denver’s work will be far from over after they’ve acquired a nose. The team’s options at the ends are far from ideal; no one seems to have the size or strength to make a serious impact and the Broncos will struggle since no one has been capable of stuffing the run.

In the secondary, Denver has a glaring weakness at free safety and last season the corners were called into question. Though Bailey was very good in the games he played, his injury and age make him something of a liability unless the team acquires some depth. Dre Bly, on the other hand, did not live up to expectations, though some of the blame can be cast on the defensive line which failed to pressure the quarterback far too often.

Denver’s in full-blown rebuilding mode. They need to start on the defensive line and acquire a franchise quarterback, though the latter can be put off until next offseason. McDaniels doesn’t have a lot of time to prove he’s a worthy head coach, though, and the sooner he can get the players he wants, the better.

Primary Team Needs

1. Defensive Line - The entire defensive line has needed help for years now; this may be the first draft a serious effort is put into rebuilding it. If the draft fails, Denver’s 3-4 scheme will struggle next season, since the team lacks ideal starters at all three positions. No starters also equals no depth - expect two or three picks to go toward the line in this draft, starting with the tackle position.

2. Quarterback - Kyle Orton has won a lot of games, but it remains to be seen whether he’s the quarterback that can return the Lombardi Trophy to Denver. No offense to him as a quarterback, but his potential is limited and the Broncos will be better off with someone new.

3. Safety - Brian Dawkins was signed this offseason to bolster the strong safety spot, but that still leaves a glaring hole at free safety. The Broncos should draft at least one safety with a relatively high pick to stock the secondary. Also, just because Dawkins received an immensely long contract doesn’t mean he’ll be a top player - or a Bronco - until the end. Depth is also a serious concern here.

4. Running Back - Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, and J.J. Arrington are all fresh faces. They’re also career backups. Don’t expect any to be in Denver long, and Denver would be wise to upgrade the position they’ve put off since Terrell Davis’ injury.

Projected First Round Pick

Malcolm Jenkins - CB/S - Ohio State

If B.J. Raji manages to fall this far (I have him going 9 to Jacksonville) Denver will definetly pull the trigger. There’s even a good chance the team trades up to draft him. But since this mock doesn’t consider trades, I’ll project Denver to draft Jenkins. He’s as versatile a defensive back as you’ll find and he’d be outstanding in Denver. With Champ Bailey’s age and, at least to some degree, health a concern, Jenkins would be a tremendous backup. In the meantime, he’d be great at safety and could be the center fielder in Denver for many years to come.