This is my yearly analysis of coaching strategy when at home and away. It is important to fully understand a coach’s strategy if you are going to try and pick up or trade for a player to help you through the season. After all, it is the coach that determines whether your player will get the ball or not. This is also particularly important for close start sit decisions where you need to do everything you can to pick your best performing starters and not leave them on the bench.

The first level of analysis is to find teams that pass a lot. For this blog, I look at 2008 passing attempt percentage for coaches that were in the league in 2008. Passing attempts are a basic metric of what the coach is trying to do (not necessarily how well they do it). It is also important to know when and where they will pass (ie home vs away). Some coaches drastically change their strategy when at home versus away, while others do not.

Ideally you want a coach that is successful and consistent with their approach whether they are home or away and will give your QB or WRs the touches you want. Having players with consistent performances throughout the season is key to winning in fantasy football.

The graph below shows the top passing coaches by attempts….when at Home.

Then graph below shows the top passing coaches by attempts….when Away.

The desirable coaches are the ones who have a high passing attempt percentage BOTH Home AND Away. Ken Whisenhunt - ARZ, Sean Payton - NO It’s not a much of a surprise, that two of the top passing offenses fit the bill.

If you can’t get players from the teams with coaches with consistent strategy when at home and away, then the next best idea is try and get players with coaches pass more at home or away. This requires more work to check matchups and to try and maximize performances, but if you’re trying to scratch and claw your way to a win, then this extra attention might be worth it.

These coaches have a high passing atttempt percentage at Home ONLY.
Jack Del Rio - JAX, Wade Philips - DAL, Eric Mangini - NYJ/CLE, Lovie Smith - CHI, Marvin Lewis - CIN, Jim Zorn - WAS, Tony Sparano - MIA
It is interesting to note that Jack Del Rio is on the list, since the Jaguars are normally considered a rushing team, but this shows that when the team is not doing well (ie 2008), Jack Del Rio is willing to open up the passing game. Eric Mangini is obviously in Cleveland this year, but perhaps his approach will be applicable in Cleveland also.

These coaches have a high passing atttempt percentage Away ONLY.
Andy Reid - PHI, Mike Singletary - SF, Norv Turner - SD, Gary Kubiak - HOU
Andy Reid is typically highly rated at home and away, but not so in 2008. Mike Singletary is a surprise, but perhaps this is a good sign for the SF QBs.

NOTE: With Tom Brady’s injury, 2008 was not a representative sample. Looking at 2007 might be a better example (it’s easy to do on your own with the SDH tools).

So, now it is clear which coaches and teams you should be reviewing closely. Start with the coaches with a more consistent strategy and work your way down the list until you find some available players to put on your team. With SportsDataHub.com you can easily display a bunch of stats for these coaches (and their players) with just a couple of clicks.

A lot of fans I talk to, and more than a few of the media elite, seem to criticize the Broncos hiring an offensive coordinator to replace Mike Shanahan. The argument seems to go something like this: the Broncos don’t need more offense - their defense was the problem last season.

Okay, fair enough; the Broncos defense was awful last season (and the season before), but hiring Josh McDaniels doesn’t mean it won’t get better. Too often we look at who a team hires as a head coach and assume his background will inevitably lead to an offensive- or defensive-oriented team. Not true. It’s his assistants who will make the significant difference on both sides of the ball.

Consider the past seven seasons in Tampa Bay. Jon Gruden was an offensive assistant before he was hired to coach the Oakland Raiders and everyone assumed he knew little about defense. But look at how good the Bucs’ defense was under his watch: it ranked in the top ten in scoring in six of seven seasons. Why? Because Monte Kiffin is a darn good defensive coordinator, and he knew how to coach a successful defense.

Or look at the Philadelphia Eagles. Andy Reid was the Green Bay Packers quarterbacks coach before he was hired to head the Eagles. He quickly made Jim Johnson defensive coordinator, and the Eagles have been solid on defense since. His blitz packages are reputable enough to rank him among the best coordinators in the league.

Or if you need more proof the background of a head coach isn’t too important, consider rookie head coach John Harbaugh. He was a special teams coach in Philadelphia for seven seasons before Andy Reid changed his title to defensive backs coach, intending to boost his resume. Has it hurt the Ravens he was a special teams coach? Not at all. Again, he surrounded himself with a bright cast of coordinators: Cam Cameron has done a fine job on offense and Rex Ryan continues to amaze as the defense’s mad genius.

A head coach may call the plays on offense if he wants extra control, but he isn’t the key reason a team has a great offense or great defense. A head coach motivates his team and keeps his players’ mindsets settled. He works with his staff to develop the gameplan, but it isn’t all on his shoulders. One could argue his assistants compose the critical component separating his team from the rest of the NFL.

In Denver, McDaniels has already taken steps to ensure his staff will be ready to turn the Broncos around. He brought in Mike Nolan, the Baltimore Ravens former defensive coordinator, to head the defense and retained Rick Dennison, Denver’s former offensive line coach, as the offensive coordinator. McDaniels, who last coached a guy named Tom Brady, will be working closely with talented quarterback Jay Cutler and has spent the last seven years learning from one of the best to ever coach in the NFL, Bill Belichick.

Don’t worry, Denver fans; McDaniels was a great pick to lead the Broncos. And don’t be surprised if the defense sees immediate improvement as early as 2009. (Just be sure to thank Norv Turner and the other assistants, too.)